Secular trends in chronic respiratory diseases mortality in Brazil, Russia, China, and South Africa: a comparative study across main BRICS countries from 1990 to 2019

Time trends in the incidence of interstitial lung disease across Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS) from 1990 to 2019: An age-period-cohort analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

The global incidence of interstitial lung disease (ILD) has risen over the past few decades. However, few studies have evaluated the status and incidence trends of ILD in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). This study assesses the trends of ILD incidence across the BRICS with an emphasis on ILD changes from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence rates were estimated by the data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). Age-period-cohort modelling was used to estimate the effects on ILD from 1990 to 2019, and the net drift and local drift were calculated.

RESULTS

In 2019, a total of 11.4 million cases of ILD were reported in the BRICS countries. From 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate of ILD in BRICS showed an upward trend. India consistently reported the highest incidence rate, while China showed the fastest growth rate (107.6%). Russia reported a similar incidence rates for men and women, with a lower age of peak incidence compared to the other four countries. We found the time effect was unfavourable for BRICS in the first decade, especially for Brazil; in China and Brazil, the risk of people born after 1960 has rapidly decreased.

CONCLUSION

ILD shows a rising incidence in BRICS. with the trends varying based on age and other environmental factors. BRICS should strengthen specific public health approaches and policies for different stages and populations.

Global patterns of asthma burden related to environmental risk factors during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for global burden of disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Change in asthma burden attributed to specific environmental risk factor has not been evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on asthma burden attributable to smoking and occupational asthmagens in different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and the region and sex disparities.

METHODS

Risk factor-specific asthma deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study 2019, estimated by standard Combined Cause of Death Model and DisMod-MR 2.1 modeling tool. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to decompose age, period, and cohort effects on asthma burden.

RESULTS

Smoking- and occupational asthmagens-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates dropped by > 45% during 1990-2019. In 2019, Africa, South and Southeast Asia had higher asthma burden than other regions. Male had higher asthma burden than female. Among nearly all age groups, low-middle SDI region had the highest smoking-related asthma burden, and low SDI region had the highest occupational asthmagens-related asthma burden. Inverse "V" shaped trend was observed in the above regions with increasing age. For smoking-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates, the most significant improvement of period rate ratio (RR) occurred in high SDI region, decreased from 1.67 (1.61, 1.74) to 0.34 (0.33, 0.36) and 1.61 (1.57, 1.66) to 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), respectively, as well as the cohort effect on smoking-related asthma burden. For occupational asthmagens-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates, the most sharply decrease of period and cohort RR appeared in the high and high-middle SDI regions. Low SDI region showed least progress in period and cohort RR of smoking- and occupational asthmagens-linked asthma burden.

CONCLUSION

Smoking- and occupational asthmagens-related asthma burden sharply decreases, but region and sex disparities exist. Policy makers from low SDI region should reinforce tobacco control and prioritize workplace protection.

Major depressive disease research in BRICS: A bibliometric analysis of publications from 2003 to 2022

Major depressive disorder (MDD) seriously threatens human health. BRICS, known as an acronym for "Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa," were also actively carrying out researches on MDD. This study aimed to conduct a bibliometric study of research on MDD conducted by the BRICS. By searching in the Web of Science and using the software Vosviewer and Citespace as analysis tools, this study analyzed the cooperation network at the country, institution, author-specific levels, the research hotspots and trends from BRICS between 2003-2022. A total of 10,911 articles were finally included. Our findings showed that researches on MDD from BRICS rapidly increased during the past two decades. China and India have shown explosive growth, while South Africa has the largest average "Usage Count" and "Time Cited". The current cooperation partners of the BRICS were mainly high-income countries and other developing countries with similar cultures, languages, and geographical locations. Institutions in high-income countries served as the main bridges for BRICS cooperation, while at the author level, some core authors in the BRICS countries serve as centers. China showed a flexible model in domestic partnership, but institutions and authors in the other four countries have gathered to cooperate within the group. BRICS research on MDD mainly focused on cognitive science, brain science, epidemiology, and disease mechanisms. The keywords"gut microbiota", "network analysis," "machine learning" and "sleep quality" showed explosive growth and might become research hotspots in the near future. This bibliometric analysis provided a science knowledge graph and references for other researchers.

Urban-Rural Disparity in Mortality Patterns of Respiratory Diseases Among Older Adults - China, 1987-2021

What is already known about this topic?

Respiratory diseases (RDs) are the primary cause of death in older adults in China. However, there is limited evidence regarding the disparity in mortality rates of RDs between urban and rural areas among the elderly population.

What is added by this report?

The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) due to RDs in the elderly population in both urban and rural areas of China has shown a consistent decrease. This trend is observed in both males and females. However, there was no significant change in the average annual percentage of ASMR for pneumonia among the urban elderly population and rural elderly men throughout the study period.

What are the implications for public health practice?

Efforts should be made in China to reduce mortality from chronic lower respiratory disease and pneumonia among the elderly, particularly in urban populations.

Time trends in the burden of autoimmune diseases across the BRICS: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BACKGROUND

This study aims to evaluate the long-term trend of prevalence and DALY (disability-adjusted life-year) rate on the age, period and cohort (APC) of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) country for autoimmune diseases (rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS) and psoriasis).

METHODS

The data are sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, and it uses the Joinpoint regression model to estimate the time trends of autoimmune diseases from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, it employs the Age-Period-Cohort (APC) model to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

For 1990 to 2019, the ASPR (age-standardised prevalence rate) of IBD increased significantly for China and South Africa, and decreased significantly for Brazil, India, Russian. The Russian ASPR of MS demonstrated a significantly decreasing trend (average annual percent change=-0.5%, 95% CI -0.6 to -0.5), with the most increased occurring in Brazil at 2009-2014. The cohort effect on DALY rates for Psoriasis displayed an ongoing decreasing trend from the 1929-1933 birth cohort to the 1999-2003 birth cohort. Specifically, the five countries relative risk values (RRs) of DALYs due to RA increased significantly by 7.98, 16.07, 5.98, 3.19, 9.13 times, from 20 to 24 age group to 65 to 69 age group.

CONCLUSIONS

The population of the BRICS countries accounts for more than 40% of the global population. And we found that the age effect of various autoimmune diseases is heavily influenced by population ageing.

The role of lncRNA in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is characterized by progressive and irreversible airflow obstruction with abnormal lung function. Because its pathogenesis involves multiple aspects of oxidative stress, immunity and inflammation, apoptosis, airway and lung repair and destruction, the clinical approach to COPD treatment is not further updated. Therefore, it is crucial to discover a new means of COPD diagnosis and treatment. COPD etiology is associated with complex interactions between environmental and genetic determinants. Numerous genes are involved in the pathogenic process of this illness in research samples exposed to hazardous environmental conditions. Among them, Long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been reported to be involved in the molecular mechanisms of COPD development induced by different environmental exposures and genetic susceptibility encounters, and some potential lncRNA biomarkers have been identified as early diagnostic, disease course determination, and therapeutic targets for COPD. In this review, we summarize the expression profiles of the reported lncRNAs that have been reported in COPD studies related to environmental risk factors such as smoking and air pollution exposure and provided an overview of the roles of those lncRNAs in the pathogenesis of the disease.

Climate change and mortality rates of COPD and asthma: A global analysis from 2000 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Climate change plays a significant role in global health threats, particularly with respiratory diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma, but the long-term global-scale impact of climate change on these diseases' mortality remains unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) of COPD and asthma at national levels.

METHODS

We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data of ASMR of COPD and asthma from 2000 to 2018. The climate change index was represented as the deviance percentage of temperature (DPT) and relative humidity (DPRH), calculated based on 19-year temperature and humidity averages. Annual temperature, RH, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels in 185 countries/regions were obtained from ERA5 and the OECD's environmental statistics database. General linear mixed-effect regression models were used to examine the associations between climate change with the log of ASMR (LASMR) of COPD and asthma.

RESULTS

After adjusting for annual PM2.5, SDI level, smoking prevalence, and geographical regions, a 0.26% increase in DPT was associated with decreases of 0.016, 0.017, and 0.014 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD and 0.042, 0.046, and 0.040 per 100,000 people in LASMR of asthma for both genders, males, and females. A 2.68% increase in DPRH was associated with increases of 0.009 and 0.011 per 100,000 people in LASMR of COPD. We observed a negative association of DPT with LASMR for COPD in countries/regions with temperatures ranging from 3.8 to 29.9 °C and with LASMR for asthma ranging from -5.3-29.9 °C. However, we observed a positive association of DPRH with LASMR for both COPD and asthma in the RH range of 41.2-67.2%.

CONCLUSION

Climate change adaptation and mitigation could be crucial in reducing the associated COPD and asthma mortality rates, particularly in regions most vulnerable to temperature and humidity fluctuations.

The priority areas and possible pathways for health cooperation in BRICS countries

As one of the largest alliances of middle-income countries, the BRICS, known as an acronym for five countries including "Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa", represents half of the global population. The health cooperation among BRICS countries will benefit their populations and other middle- and low-income countries. This study aims to summarize the current status of health cooperation in BRICS countries and identify opportunities to strengthen BRICS participation in global health governance. A literature review was conducted to analyze the status, progress, and challenges of BRICS' health cooperation. Content analysis was used to review the 2011-2021 annual joint declarations of the BRICS Health Ministers Meetings. The priority health areas were identified through segmental frequency analysis. Our research suggested that communicable diseases, access to medicine, and universal health coverage appeared most frequently in the content of declarations, indicating the possible top health priorities among BRICS' health collaboration. These priority areas align with the primary health challenges of each country, including the threats of double burden of diseases, as well as the need for improving health systems and access to medicines. Respective external cooperation, inter-BRICS health cooperation, and unified external cooperation are the main forms of health cooperation among BRICS countries. However, challenges such as the lack of a unified image and precise position, lack of practical impact, and weak discourse power have impeded the impact of BRICS on health governance. This study suggests that the BRICS countries should recognize their positioning, improve their unified image, and establish cooperative entities; at the same time, they should increase their practical strength, promote non-governmental cooperation, and expand the cooperation space through the "BRICS Plus" mechanism with countries with similar interests to join.

Global, regional, and national burden of asthma and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

The burden of asthma in terms of premature death or reduced quality of life remains a huge issue. It is of great importance to evaluate asthma burden geographically and time trends from 1990 to 2019 and to assess the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects at global level.

METHODS

Asthma prevalence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) as well as risk-attributable burden were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database and were compared by age and sex. The Smoothing Splines models were used to estimate the relationship between asthma DALYs and the sociodemographic index (SDI). The Age-Period-Cohort model was used to determine effects of ages, periods, and birth cohorts on disease rates.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2019, the declines were 24.05% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] - 27.24 to - 20.82) in age-standardized asthma prevalence, 51.3% (- 59.08 to - 43.71) in mortality, and 42.55% (- 48.48 to - 36.61) in DALYs rate. However, the burden of asthma continued to rise, with an estimated 262.41 million prevalent cases globally (95% UI 224.05 to 309.45). Asthma caused greater DALYs in females than in males among people aged 20 years and older. The lowest age-standardized DALYs rate was observed at a SDI of approximately 0.70. The Longitudinal age curves showed an approximate W-shaped pattern for asthma prevalence and a likely J-shaped pattern for asthma mortality. The period effect on prevalence and mortality of asthma decreased from 1990 to 2019. Compared with the 1955-1959 birth cohort, the prevalence relative risk (RR) of asthma was highest in the 1905-1909 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline. At the global level, the percentages of high body-mass index, occupational asthmagens, and smoking contributing to DALYs due to asthma were 16.94%, 8.82%, and 9.87%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the age-standardized rates of asthma burden declined in the past 30 years, the overall burden of asthma remains severe. High body mass index becomes the most important risk factor for DALYs due to asthma at the global level.

Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease attributable to non-optimal temperature from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the third leading cause of death worldwide. As the traditional risk factors (like smoking and ambient air pollution) on the burden of COPD being well characterized, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature has been widely concerned. In this study, we extracted the relevant burden data of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature from GBD 2019 and adopted estimated annual percent changes, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and age-period-cohort model to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns, relationships with socio-demographic level, and the independent effects of age, period and cohort from 1990 to 2019. In brief, the global COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures showed declining trends but was still more severe in the elderly, males, Asia, and regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI). And cold had a greater burden than heat. The inverted U-shape is expected for the relationship between SDI and the burden of COPD caused by non-optimal temperatures according to the GPR model, with the inflection point around SDI 0.45. Besides, the improvements were observed in period and cohort effects but were relatively limited in low and low-middle SDI regions. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen this burden predominantly among lower SDI countries.

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic respiratory diseases and associated risk factors, 1990–2019: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

The burden of chronic respiratory diseases has changed over the three decades. This study aims to describe the spatiotemporal trends of prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) due to chronic respiratory diseases (CRDs) worldwide during 1990–2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019).

Methods

The prevalence, mortality, and DALY attributable to CRDs and risk factors from 1990 to 2019 were estimated. We also assessed the driving factors and potentiality for improvement with decomposition and frontier analyses, respectively.

Results

In 2019, 454.56 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 417.35–499.14] million individuals worldwide had a CRD, showing a 39·8% increase compared with 1990. Deaths due to CRDs were 3.97 (95%UI: 3.58–4.30) million, and DALY in 2019 was 103.53 (95%UI: 94.79–112.27) million. Declines by average annual percent change (AAPC) were observed in age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR) (0.64% decrease), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) (1.92%), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) (1.72%) globally and in 5 socio-demographic index (SDI) regions. Decomposition analyses represented that the increase in overall CRDs DALY was driven by aging and population growth. However, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was the leading driver of increased DALY worldwide. Frontier analyses witnessed significant improvement opportunities at all levels of the development spectrum. Smoking remained a leading risk factor (RF) for mortality and DALY, although it showed a downward trend. Air pollution, a growing factor especially in relatively low SDI regions, deserves our attention.

Conclusion

Our study clarified that CRDs remain the leading causes of prevalence, mortality, and DALY worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but declines in several age-standardized estimators since 1990. The estimated contribution of risk factors to mortality and DALY demands the need for urgent measures to improve them.

Systematic review registration

http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool.

Trends of ischemic heart disease mortality attributable to household air pollution during 1990-2019 in China and India: an age-period-cohort analysis

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) caused by household air pollution (HAP) have sparked widespread concern globally in the recent decade. Meanwhile, increased ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has been the leading cause of worldwide CVD deaths. Both China and India experienced a high IHD burden and high exposure to HAP. The present study aimed to estimate and compare the long-term trends of HAP-attributable IHD mortality in the two countries. The data of this study were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019. The age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was utilized to estimate the independent trends of the age, period, and cohort effects from 1990 to 2019. The age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) of HAP-attributable IHD have fallen faster in China than in India for both sexes. The local drift and net drift values were < 0 for all age groups in both countries. The age effects in both countries and sexes increased with time, suggesting age is a risk factor for IHD; conversely, period and cohort effects in China demonstrated a faster decline in both genders than in India. It indicated that China has been more successful than India in decreasing HAP-attributable IHD mortality.

Secular Trends of Mortality and Years of Life Lost Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been an important public health issue in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) from COPD, and explore the effects of age, period, and cohort in Wuhan, China from 2010 to 2019.

METHODS

Data were collected from the cause of death surveillance system in Wuhan. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized YLL rate (ASYR) and the estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) were calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was adopted to estimate the age, period, and cohort effects.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, COPD accounted for 26,051.15 deaths and 394,659.58 person years YLL in Wuhan. Recently, the death burden of COPD in Wuhan has somewhat improved, especially after 2015, with declining trends in ASMR and ASYR. Additionally, the ASMR and ASYR of COPD was higher in males. And these of males showed the overall upward trends, with EAPCs of 1.06 (0.13, 2.00) and 1.21 (0.12, 2.31), respectively, while females showed downward trends since 2010. According to APC model, the age effect of COPD increased with age, and the cohort risk ratios (RRs) followed the overall downward trends. Period RRs for the Wuhan population generally tended to rise and then fall, with females showing a clear downward trend after 2015, while period RRs for males maintained an upward trend throughout the study period.

CONCLUSIONS

Recently, the death burden from COPD in Wuhan has improved, especially after 2015, with improvements in ASMR, ASYR and period RRs. Sex differences still exist. COPD posed a greater threat to the elderly, especially males. Public health managers should continue to execute more targeted programs to lessen the death burden of COPD in Wuhan.

Trends and age-period-cohort effects on incidence and mortality of asthma in Sichuan Province, China, 1990-2019

Background

The provinces in western China have undergone rapid urbanization and industrialization, particularly since the Chinese government launched the Great Western Development Strategy in 2000. We examined the time trends and contributions of age, period, and cohort effects to asthma incidence and mortality in Sichuan Province, a populous province in western China, from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

The data of Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. Trends and average annual percentage change were estimated using joinpoint regression. Age, period, and cohort effects were estimated using an age-period-cohort model with the intrinsic estimator method.

Results

In the latest period (2015–2019), the highest incidence of asthma was 2004.49/100,000 in children aged < 5 years, and the highest mortality rate was 22.04/100,000 for elderly people aged > 80 years. Age-standardized rates generally remained stable (95% confidence interval [CI]  − 0.21, 0.11) for incidence and declined by 4.74% (95% CI − 5.09, − 4.39) for mortality over the last 30 years. After controlling for other effects, the age effect on asthma showed that the incidence rate ratio (RR) was highest in the < 5 years age group, and the mortality RR was highest in the > 80 years age group. The period effect on incidence and mortality decreased from 1990 to 2019, respectively. A cohort effect was found the incidence RR increased slowly from the early birth cohorts to the later birth cohorts, especially after the 2005 birth cohort, whereas the mortality RR continued to decline.

Conclusions

There was a significant effect of older age on the asthma mortality rate over the last 30 years, and the incidence rate in children aged < 5 years increased. The relative risk of asthma incidence in the later birth cohorts increased. Effective preventive measures and public health policies should be to protect children and elderly people from potentially harmful chronic diseases.