ARIMA model for predicting chronic kidney disease and estimating its economic burden in China

Inside ANEMIA of CKD: Projecting the Future Burden of Anemia of Chronic Kidney Disease and Benefits of Proactive Management: A Microsimulation Model of the Chinese Population

INTRODUCTION

Anemia is a common comorbidity of chronic kidney disease (CKD) that has been associated with increased risk of complications, healthcare expenditure, and reduced quality of life. In China, the treatment of anemia of CKD has been reported to be suboptimal in part because of a lack of awareness of the condition and its management. It is therefore important to raise awareness of the condition by estimating the future health and economic burden of anemia of CKD and also to understand how it may be addressed through proactive policies. This study aims to project the health and economic burden of anemia of CKD, in China, from 2023 to 2027 and to estimate the impact of a hypothetical intervention on related clinical and cost outcomes.

METHODS

A virtual Chinese population was simulated using demographic, clinical, and economic statistics within a validated CKD microsimulation model. Each individual was assigned a CKD stage, anemia stage, comorbidity status (type 2 diabetes, hypertension), complication status (stroke, heart failure, and/or myocardial infarction), and a probability of receiving treatments and therapies. Annual direct healthcare costs were assigned and based on these factors. The hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia by 5% annually. This hypothetical scenario was chosen to highlight the impact of implementing policies that could reduce anemia of CKD, and is aligned with the Healthy China 2030 policy, which aims to reduce mortality from noncommunicable diseases by 30%. Interventions could consist of early screening and intervention to reduce the escalation of anemia from mild to moderate or severe. Results were compared with a baseline "no change" scenario which reflects current trends.

RESULTS

The number of patients with moderate/severe anemia of CKD was projected to increase from 3.0 to 3.2 million patients, with associated costs increasing from ¥22.0 billion (B) to ¥24.4B between 2023 and 2027, respectively. Compared with the no change scenario, the hypothetical intervention reduced the prevalence of moderate and severe anemia of CKD, saving ¥3.9B in healthcare costs in 2027 (¥24.4B vs ¥20.6B, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with trends in CKD burden in China, the prevalence of anemia of CKD is projected to increase, leading to greater related healthcare costs. The introduction of healthcare interventions designed to screen for and treat anemia more effectively could therefore reduce its future burden and related costs.

The impact of population ageing on the burden of chronic kidney disease

The burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and its risk factors are projected to rise in parallel with the rapidly ageing global population. By 2050, the prevalence of CKD category G3-G5 may exceed 10% in some regions, resulting in substantial health and economic burdens that will disproportionately affect lower-income countries. The extent to which the CKD epidemic can be mitigated depends largely on the uptake of prevention efforts to address modifiable risk factors, the implementation of cost-effective screening programmes for early detection of CKD in high-risk individuals and widespread access and affordability of new-generation kidney-protective drugs to prevent the development and delay the progression of CKD. Older patients require a multidisciplinary integrated approach to manage their multimorbidity, polypharmacy, high rates of adverse outcomes, mental health, fatigue and other age-related symptoms. In those who progress to kidney failure, comprehensive conservative management should be offered as a viable option during the shared decision-making process to collaboratively determine a treatment approach that respects the values and wishes of the patient. Interventions that maintain or improve quality of life, including pain management and palliative care services when appropriate, should also be made available.

Causal relationship between basal metabolic rate and kidney function: a bidirectional two-sample mendelian randomization study

Background

The relationship between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and Chronic kidney disease (CKD) remains unclear and controversial. In this study, we investigated the causal role of BMR in renal injury, and inversely, whether altered renal function causes changes in BMR.

Methods

In this two-sample mendelian randomization (MR) study, Genetic data were accessed from published genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for BMR ((n = 454,874) and indices of renal function, i.e. estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) based on creatinine (n =1, 004, 040), CKD (n=480, 698), and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (n =852, 678) in European. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) random-effects MR method serves as the main analysis, accompanied by several sensitivity MR analyses. We also performed a reverse MR to explore the causal effects of the above indices of renal function on the BMR.

Results

We found that genetically predicted BMR was negatively related to eGFR, (β= -0.032, P = 4.95*10-12). Similar results were obtained using the MR-Egger (β= -0.040, P = 0.002), weighted median (β= -0.04, P= 5.35×10-11) and weighted mode method (β= -0.05, P=9.92×10-7). Higher BMR had a causal effect on an increased risk of CKD (OR =1.36, 95% CI = 1.11-1.66, P =0.003). In reverse MR, lower eGFR was related to higher BMR (β= -0.64, P = 2.32×10-6, IVW analysis). Bidirectional MR supports no causal association was observed between BMR and BUN. Sensitivity analyses confirmed these findings, indicating the robustness of the results.

Conclusion

Genetically predicted high BMR is associated with impaired kidney function. Conversely, genetically predicted decreased eGFR is associated with higher BMR.

Comparison of simulation and predictive efficacy for hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome incidence in mainland China based on five time series models

Background

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a zoonotic infectious disease commonly found in Asia and Europe, characterized by fever, hemorrhage, shock, and renal failure. China is the most severely affected region, necessitating an analysis of the temporal incidence patterns in the country.

Methods

We employed Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), Nonlinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs (NARX), and a hybrid CNN-LSTM model to model and forecast time series data spanning from January 2009 to November 2023 in the mainland China. By comparing the simulated performance of these models on training and testing sets, we determined the most suitable model.

Results

Overall, the CNN-LSTM model demonstrated optimal fitting performance (with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 93.77/270.66, 7.59%/38.96%, and 64.37/189.73 for the training and testing sets, respectively, lower than those of individual CNN or LSTM models).

Conclusion

The hybrid CNN-LSTM model seamlessly integrates CNN's data feature extraction and LSTM's recurrent prediction capabilities, rendering it theoretically applicable for simulating diverse distributed time series data. We recommend that the CNN-LSTM model be considered as a valuable time series analysis tool for disease prediction by policy-makers.

Willingness to pay for haemodialysis among patients with chronic kidney disease in Abuja, Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Evidence of willingness to pay for kidney replacement therapy is scarce in low-middle-income countries, including Nigeria's Formal Sector Social Health Insurance Programme. The study, therefore, assessed the willingness to pay for haemodialysis among chronic kidney disease patients in Abuja, Nigeria.

METHODS

The study adopted a cross-sectional survey design. We used the contingent valuation method to estimate the maximum stated willingness to pay (WTP) for haemodialysis among end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients. We obtained informed written consent from respondents before data collection. The socio-demographic characteristics and willingness to pay data were summarized using descriptive statistics. We evaluated the mean differences in respondents' WTP using Mann-Whitney and Kruskal-Wallis tests. All variables that had p < 0.25 in the bivariate analysis were included in the Generalized Linear Model (gamma with link function) to determine the predictors of the WTP for one's and another's haemodialysis. The level of significance in the final model was ρ < 0.05.

RESULTS

About 88.3% and 64.8% of ESKD patients were willing to pay for personal and altruistic haemodialysis, correspondingly. The mean annual WTP for haemodialysis for one's and altruistic haemodialysis was USD25,999.06 and USD 1539.89, respectively. Private hospital patients were likelier to pay for their haemodialysis (β = 0.39, 95%CI: 0.21 to 0.57, p < 0.001). Patients attending public-private partnership hospitals were less likely to pay for altruistic haemodialysis than those attending public hospitals (β = -1.65, 95%CI: -2.51 to -0.79, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The willingness to pay for haemodialysis for themselves and others was high. The type of facility ESKD patients attended influenced their willingness to pay for haemodialysis. The findings highlight the need for policies to enhance affordable and equitable access to haemodialysis in Nigeria through pre-payment mechanisms and altruistic financing strategies.

Diagnostic value of high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) in dialysis patients with myocardial infarction

Background

As a sensitive diagnostic marker for myocardial infarction (MI) in people with normal renal function, elevated high sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) was often found in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients requiring dialysis. However, the accuracy of baseline hs-cTnT in the diagnosis of MI (including Type 1 MI (T1MI) and Type 2 MI (T2MI)) in dialysis patients is still controversial. The aim of this study was to retrospectively explore whether there were any clinical indices that could increase the predictive value of hs-cTnT on admission for MI occurrence in dialysis patients.

Methods

Here, 136 patients with uremia who underwent regular dialysis with coronary angiography in the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University from August 2017 to October 2021 were enrolled. According to the coronary angiography results and the presence of clinical symptoms, the patients were divided into: (1). AMI group (n = 69; angiography positive) and Control group (n = 67; angiography negative); (2). T1MI group (n = 69; angiography positive), T2MI group (n = 7; angiography negative & symptomatic), and Control group (n = 60; angiography negative & asymptomatic).

Results

Here, we found the mean hs-cTnT on admission in the Control group was much lower than that in the AMI group. Hs-cTnT alone had a mediocre predictive performance, with an AUROC of 0.7958 (95% CI: 0.7220, 0.8696). Moreover, the ROC curve of hs-cTnT combined with the Triglyceride (TG), Time of dialysis, and Albumin (Alb) showed a higher sensitivity area [0.9343 (95% CI: 0.8901, 0.9786)] than that of single hs-cTnT. Next, hs-cTnT combined with the TG, Time of dialysis, and Alb also presented a better performance in predicting T1MI [0.9150 (95% CI: 0.8678, 0.9621)] or T2MI (0.9167 [0.9167 (95% CI: 0.8427, 0.9906)] occurrences. Last, these combined variables could better distinguish patient between T1MI and T2MI group than hs-cTnT alone.

Conclusions

On admission, a combination of hs-cTnT, TG, Time of dialysis, and Alb presented a higher sensitivity than hs-cTnT alone in predicting MI occurrence in dialysis patients, suggesting a better diagnostic approach for future clinical applications.

Comparison of Three Prediction Models for Predicting Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in China

Purpose

To predict the future number of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China and compare the three prediction models.

Methods

A generalized additive model (GAM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and curve-fitting method were used to fit and predict the number of patients with COPD in China. Data on the number of patients with COPD in China from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. The coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), relative error of prediction, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to evaluate and compare the fitting effect, prediction effect, and reliability of the three models.

Results

The GAM, ARIMA, and curve-fitting methods could predict future trends in COPD in China. The performance of the GAM is the best among the three models, whereas the curve fitting method is the worst, and the ARIMA (0,1,2) model is in between. The prediction results of the three models showed that the number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase from 2020 to 2025.

Conclusion

GAM and AIRMA models are recommended for predicting the future prevalence of COPD in China. The number of patients with COPD in China is expected to increase in the next few years. The prevention and control of COPD in China still needs to be strengthened. Using appropriate models to predict future trends in COPD will provide support for health policymakers.

Association between Neck Circumference and Chronic Kidney Disease in Korean Adults in the 2019-2021 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health problem and a leading cause of cardiovascular disease and death. Early recognition and management of CKD risk factors are necessary to prevent its onset and progression. Neck circumference (NC) is a non-invasive and easily accessible anthropometric measure associated with central obesity and subcutaneous fat accumulation in the upper body. Our study aimed to explore the relationship between NC and the prevalence of CKD using data from the nationally representative Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2019-2021). We analyzed data from 10,219 subjects (age > 19 years, no missing values). CKD was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. Logistic regression analysis was performed, which revealed a significant association between NC and CKD prevalence even after adjusting for confounding factors, both when NC was considered a continuous variable (OR [95% CI], 1.11 [1.03-1.19]) and in quartiles (Q1 as reference; Q2 OR [95% CI], 1.23 [0.91-1.67]; Q3 OR [95% CI], 1.59 [1.16-2.18]; Q4 OR [95% CI], 1.70 [1.16-2.50]). Our findings suggest that NC could be a simple and effective anthropometric measurement for identifying individuals at risk for CKD.

Assessment of Public Knowledge about Chronic Kidney Disease and Factors Influencing Knowledge Levels: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background and Objectives: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a significant risk for end-stage renal disease (ESRD), cardiovascular diseases, and premature death. The study aims to assess CKD knowledge and predictive variables among the general public. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among the general public in Al Medina Al-Munawara, Saudi Arabia, utilizing a 21-item questionnaire-based approach over a 4-month period from January 2023 to April 2023. The developed questionnaire was validated for readability by experts and refined in light of the feedback received from the experts and the final version was prepared. The reliability of the questionnaire was 0.71, which shows an acceptable level of internal consistency. The data analysis was performed using IBM SPSS software (version 25). Results: A total of 777 complete surveys were received after applying the exclusion criteria. The study results revealed that the majority of the respondents had poor knowledge 505 (65%), 203 (26.1) had moderate knowledge, and 69 (8.9%) had good knowledge. Gender (p = 0.004), age (<0.001), education level (p = 0.039), marital status (p = 0.003), and occupation (p = 0.002) play significant roles in shaping participants' knowledge levels regarding CKD. Lower odds of good knowledge were associated with females with an OR (95% CI) of 0.448 (0.263-0.764) and intermediate or higher secondary school level of education displayed an OR (95% CI) of 0.39 (0.18-0.89). Higher odds of good knowledge levels were associated with the age group of 18-27 with an OR (95% CI) of 5.077 (1.21-21.38) and being employed with an OR of 3.555 (1.04-12.21). Conclusions: A significant proportion of respondents had poor knowledge about CKD. Several demographic factors were associated with CKD knowledge. Further research is needed to explore these knowledge disparities and develop targeted interventions to improve CKD knowledge among the general public.

Burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province from 1990 to 2019: with forecast for the next 11 years

Ischemic stroke is featured with high incidence, mortality, and disability. The aim of this study is to use Global Burden of Disease database to describe and compare the burden of ischemic stroke in mainland China and Taiwan province and to further predict the expected changes in the next 11 years using statistical modeling methods. Information on ischemic stroke incidence and mortality in China (mainland and Taiwan province) during 1990-2019 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database to analyze the effects of region, gender, and age on the incidence and mortality of ischemic stroke in China. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was used to predict the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized mortality rate of ischemic stroke in males and females in mainland China and Taiwan province in the next 11 years. The period from 1990 to 2019 witnessed an overall upward trend in the number of incidence and deaths in mainland China and Taiwan province. In 2019, there were nearly 2.87 million ischemic incidence cases with stroke in mainland China, with more female patients than male in the age group of over 60 years. Among the nearly 1.03 million deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 85 years was higher than that of women, while in Taiwan province, the number of incidence was 28 771, with more female patients of all ages than male. Among the 6788 deaths, the death toll of men under the age of 80 years was higher than that of women. In 2019, the age group with the highest number of patients in the two regions was 65-69 years, while the highest number of deaths was found in people aged 85 years and above. As our autoregressive integrated moving average model predicted, the age-standardized incidence rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 163.23/100 000 persons in mainland China by 2030, which would continue to increase, while the age-standardized mortality rate value of ischemic stroke is expected to be 16.41/100 000 persons in Taiwan province by 2030, which showed a decreasing trend. Disease burden of ischemic stroke is still increasing in mainland China and Taiwan province, and health resources should be deployed to implement effective prevention and control strategies, taking into account region, gender, and age.

Impact of COVID-19 on epidemic trend of hepatitis C in Henan Province assessed by interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis C presents a profound global health challenge. The impact of COVID-19 on hepatitis C, however, remain uncertain. This study aimed to ascertain the influence of COVID-19 on the hepatitis C epidemic trend in Henan Province.

METHODS

We collated the number of monthly diagnosed cases in Henan Province from January 2013 to September 2022. Upon detailing the overarching epidemiological characteristics, the interrupted time series (ITS) analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models was employed to estimate the hepatitis C diagnosis rate pre and post the COVID-19 emergence. In addition, we also discussed the model selection process, test model fitting, and result interpretation.

RESULTS

Between January 2013 and September 2022, a total of 267,968 hepatitis C cases were diagnosed. The yearly average diagnosis rate stood at 2.42/100,000 persons. While 2013 witnessed the peak diagnosis rate at 2.97/100,000 persons, 2020 reported the least at 1.7/100,000 persons. The monthly mean hepatitis C diagnosed numbers culminated in 2291 cases. The optimal ARIMA model chosen was ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,1)12 with AIC = 1459.58, AICc = 1460.19, and BIC = 1472.8; having coefficients MA1=-0.62 (t=-8.06, P < 0.001) and SMA1=-0.79 (t=-6.76, P < 0.001). The final model's projected step change was - 800.0 (95% confidence interval [CI] -1179.9 ~ -420.1, P < 0.05) and pulse change was 463.40 (95% CI 191.7 ~ 735.1, P < 0.05) per month.

CONCLUSION

The measures undertaken to curtail COVID-19 led to a diminishing trend in the diagnosis rate of hepatitis C. The ARIMA model is a useful tool for evaluating the impact of large-scale interventions, because it can explain potential trends, autocorrelation, and seasonality, and allow for flexible modeling of different types of impacts.

Gender Trends in First Authorship of Academic Publications Related to Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome

Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome is a congenital cardiac preexcitation syndrome that arises from abnormal cardiac electrical conduction through an accessory pathway and results in symptomatic and life-threatening arrhythmias. The aim of this study is to analyze the patterns of gender representation among first-author publications concerning "Wolf-Parkinson-White syndrome" within the PubMed-indexed publications from "January 1, 1973, to December 31, 2022," based on country and year. On May 9, 2023, bibliometric analysis was performed. The phrase "(Wolf-Parkinson-White Syndrome)" was looked up in PubMed. It covered articles released between January 1, 1973, and December 31, 2022. Articles accepted in the year 2022 and published in Pubmed in 2023 were included in the study. A total of 138 articles were considered and included in our analysis. Among these articles, 29 (21.01%) were authored by females, while 109 (78.99%) were authored by males. To conclude, this research study reveals a rising trend of females in lead authorship roles within the field of cardiac arrhythmia research. However, it remains evident that there is a significant gender gap, with male researchers still outnumbering their female counterparts.