A retrospective analysis to identify predictors of COPD-related rehospitalization

Factors affecting 12-month unplanned readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients: the effect of mental disorders in an Australian cohort

BACKGROUND

Many individuals with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) experience frequent hospitalization and readmissions, which is burdensome on the health system. This study aims to investigate factors associated with unplanned readmissions and mortality following a COPD-related hospitalization over a 12-month period in Australia, focusing on mental disorders and accounting for the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study using linked hospitalization and mortality records identified individuals aged ≥40 years who had at least one hospital admission with a principal diagnosis of COPD between 2014 and 2020 in New South Wales, Australia. A semi-competing risk analysis was conducted to examine factors associated with unplanned readmission and mortality.

RESULTS

Adults with a mental disorder diagnosis, specifically anxiety, had a higher risk of 12-month unplanned readmission. Individuals with anxiety and dementia also had a higher risk of mortality pre- and post-unplanned readmission. Individuals who were admitted during the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic period had lower risk of unplanned readmission, but higher risk of mortality without unplanned readmission.

CONCLUSION

Interventions aimed at reducing admissions should consider adults living with mental disorders such as anxiety or dementia to improve healthcare delivery and health outcomes for individuals living with COPD.

Development and validation of a prospective study to predict the risk of readmission within 365 days of respiratory failure: based on a random survival forest algorithm combined with COX regression modeling

BACKGROUND

There is a need to develop and validate a widely applicable nomogram for predicting readmission of respiratory failure patients within 365 days.

METHODS

We recruited patients with respiratory failure at the First People's Hospital of Yancheng and the People's Hospital of Jiangsu. We used the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to select significant features for multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The Random Survival Forest algorithm was employed to construct a model for the variables that obtained a coefficient of 0 following LASSO regression, and subsequently determine the prediction score. Independent risk factors and the score were used to develop a multivariate COX regression for creating the line graph. We used the Harrell concordance index to quantify the predictive accuracy and the receiver operating characteristic curve to evaluate model performance. Additionally, we used decision curve analysiso assess clinical usefulness.

RESULTS

The LASSO regression and multivariate Cox regression were used to screen hemoglobin, diabetes and pneumonia as risk variables combined with Score to develop a column chart model. The C index is 0.927 in the development queue, 0.924 in the internal validation queue, and 0.922 in the external validation queue. At the same time, the predictive model also showed excellent calibration and higher clinical value.

CONCLUSIONS

A nomogram predicting readmission of patients with respiratory failure within 365 days based on three independent risk factors and a jointly developed random survival forest algorithm has been developed and validated. This improves the accuracy of predicting patient readmission and provides practical information for individualized treatment decisions.

Predictors of Readmission, for Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) - A Systematic Review

Introduction

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third-leading cause of death globally and is responsible for over 3 million deaths annually. One of the factors contributing to the significant healthcare burden for these patients is readmission. The aim of this review is to describe significant predictors and prediction scores for all-cause and COPD-related readmission among patients with COPD.

Methods

A search was conducted in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, from database inception to June 7, 2022. Studies were included if they reported on patients at least 40 years old with COPD, readmission data within 1 year, and predictors of readmission. Study quality was assessed. Significant predictors of readmission and the degree of significance, as noted by the p-value, were extracted for each study. This review was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42022337035).

Results

In total, 242 articles reporting on 16,471,096 patients were included. There was a low risk of bias across the literature. Of these, 153 studies were observational, reporting on predictors; 57 studies were observational studies reporting on interventions; and 32 were randomized controlled trials of interventions. Sixty-four significant predictors for all-cause readmission and 23 for COPD-related readmission were reported across the literature. Significant predictors included 1) pre-admission patient characteristics, such as male sex, prior hospitalization, poor performance status, number and type of comorbidities, and use of long-term oxygen; 2) hospitalization details, such as length of stay, use of corticosteroids, and use of ventilatory support; 3) results of investigations, including anemia, lower FEV1, and higher eosinophil count; and 4) discharge characteristics, including use of home oxygen and discharge to long-term care or a skilled nursing facility.

Conclusion

The findings from this review may enable better predictive modeling and can be used by clinicians to better inform their clinical gestalt of readmission risk.

Readmission rate for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The readmission rate following hospitalization for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations is extremely high and has become a common and challenging clinical problem. This study aimed to systematically summarize COPD readmission rates for acute exacerbations and their underlying risk factors.

METHODS

A comprehensive search was performed using PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science, published from database inception to April 2, 2022. Methodological quality was evaluated using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). We used a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model to estimate the pooled COPD readmission rate for acute exacerbations and underlying risk factors.

RESULTS

A total of 46 studies were included, of which 24, 7, 17, 7, and 20 summarized the COPD readmission rates for acute exacerbations within 30, 60, 90, 180, and 365 days, respectively. The pooled 30-, 60-, 90-, 180-, and 365-day readmission rates were 11%, 17%, 17%, 30%, and 37%, respectively. The study design type, age stage, WHO region, and length of stay (LOS) were initially considered to be sources of heterogeneity. We also identified potential risk factors for COPD readmission, including male sex, number of hospitalizations in the previous year, LOS, and comorbidities such as heart failure, tumor or cancer, and diabetes, whereas obesity was a protective factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with COPD had a high readmission rate for acute exacerbations, and potential risk factors were identified. Therefore, we should propose clinical interventions and adjust or targeted the control of avoidable risk factors to prevent and reduce the negative impact of COPD readmission.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO, identifier CRD42022333581.

Hospital Readmission Due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of hospital readmission for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) at 30, 90 and 365 days, and to determine demographic and socioeconomic risk factors for 30-day and 90-day readmission and time to COPD-related readmission within 365 days in Tasmania.

METHODS

Patients ≥40 years admitted for COPD between 2011 and 2015 were identified using administrative data from all major public hospitals in Tasmania, Australia. Factors associated with readmission and time to readmission were identified using logistic and Cox regression, respectively.

RESULTS

The rates of COPD-related readmission were 6.7% within 30 days, 12.2% within 90 days and 23.7% within 365 days. Being male (odds ratio [OR]: 1.49, CI: 1.06-2.09), Indigenous (OR: 2.47, CI: 1.31-4.66) and living in the lower socioeconomic North-West region of Tasmania (OR: 1.80, CI: 1.20-2.69) were risk factors for 30-day readmission. Increased COPD-related (OR: 1.48, CI: 1.22-1.80; OR: 1.52, CI: 1.29-1.78) and non-COPD-related (OR: 1.12, CI: 1.03- 1.23; OR: 1.11, CI: 1.03-1.21) emergency department (ED) visits in the preceding six months were risk factors for both 30-day and 90-day readmissions. Being Indigenous (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.61, CI: 1.10-2.37) and previous COPD-related ED visits (HR: 1.30, CI: 1.21-1.39) decreased, while a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (OR: 0.91, CI: 0.83- 0.99) increased the time to readmission within 365 days.

CONCLUSION

Being male, Indigenous, living in the North-West region and previous ED visits were associated with increased risk of COPD readmission in Tasmania. Interventions to improve access to primary healthcare for these groups may reduce COPD-related readmissions.

Predictors of short-term COPD readmission

COPD readmissions have a great impact on patients' quality of life and mortality. Our goal was to identify factors related to 60-day readmission. We conducted a prospective observational cohort study with a nested case-control study, with 60 days of follow-up after the index admission. Patients readmitted were matched, by age, baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 s and month at admission, with patients admitted in the same period but not readmitted at 2 months. Data were collected on sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and health-related quality of life data at the index admission and events from discharge to readmission within 60 days. Conditional logistic (60-day readmission) and Cox (days to readmission) regression models were constructed. Both multivariable analyses identified the following as predictors: any admission in the preceding 2 months (OR: 2.366; HR: 1.918), hematocrit at ED arrival ≤ 35% (OR: 2.949; HR: 1.570), pre-existing cardiovascular disease (valvular disease or myocardial infarction) (OR: 1.878; HR: 1.490); NIMV at discharge (OR: 0.547; HR: 0.70); no appointment with a specialist after discharge (OR: 5.785; HR: 3.373) and patient-reported need for help at home (OR: 2.978; HR: 2.061). The AUC for the logistic model was 0.845 and the c-index for the Cox model was 0.707. EuroQol EQ-5D score before the admission was correlated with a lower risk of readmission (OR: 0.383; HR: 0.670). As conclusions, we have identified factors related to 60-day readmission and summarized the findings in easy-to-use scoring scales that could be incorporated into the daily clinical routine and may help establish preventive measures to reduce future readmissions.Registration: Clinical Trial Registration NCT03227211.

Socio-demographic and -economic factors associated with 30-day readmission for conditions targeted by the hospital readmissions reduction program: a population-based study

Background

Early hospital readmissions remain common in patients with conditions targeted by the CMS Hospital Readmission Reduction Program (HRRP). There is still no consensus on whether readmission measures should be adjusted based on social factors, and there are few population studies within the U.S. examining how social characteristics influence readmissions for HRRP-targeted conditions. The objective of this study was to determine if specific socio-demographic and -economic factors are associated with 30-day readmissions in HRRP-targeted conditions: acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, acute myocardial infarction, and heart failure.

Methods

The Nationwide Readmissions Database was used to identify patients admitted with HRRP-targeted conditions between January 1, 2010 and September 30, 2015. Stroke was included as a control condition because it is not included in the HRRP. Multivariate models were used to assess the relationship between three social and economic characteristics (gender, urban/rural hospital designation, and estimated median household income within the patient’s zip code) and 30-day readmission rates using a hierarchical two-level logistic model. Age-adjusted models were used to assess relationship differences between Medicare vs. non-Medicare populations.

Results

There were 19,253,997 weighted index hospital admissions for all diagnoses and 3,613,488 30-day readmissions between 2010 and 2015. Patients in the lowest income quartile (≤$37,999) had an increased odds of 30-day readmission across all conditions (P < 0.0001). Female gender and rural hospital designation were associated with a decreased odds of 30-day readmission for most targeted conditions (P < 0.05). Similar findings were also seen in patients ≥65 years old.

Conclusions

Socio-demographic and -economic factors are associated with 30-day readmission rates and should be incorporated into tools or interventions to improve discharge planning and mitigate against readmission.

Impact of COPD exacerbations leading to hospitalization on general and disease-specific quality of life

RATIONALE

Acute exacerbations negatively impact quality of life in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but the impact of hospitalized exacerbations on quality of life is not clear. We hypothesized that patients with hospitalized exacerbations would benefit from hospitalization and experience improvement in general and disease-specific quality of life (as measured by the St. George's respiratory questionnaire (SGRQ) and the medical outcomes study 36-item short form health survey (SF-36)) compared to those without exacerbations, or with non-hospitalized acute exacerbations.

METHODS

1219 COPD patients enrolled in either the simvastatin for the prevention of exacerbations in moderate-to severe COPD Trial (STATCOPE) or azithromycin for prevention of exacerbations of COPD trial (MACRO) were analyzed. Demographic information, spirometry, and symptom scores were noted at baseline. Exacerbation events and changes in quality of life scores were assessed over a mean of 538 days of follow-up.

RESULTS

Of patients studied, 25.6% were hospitalized, 44.0% had at least one outpatient exacerbation, and 30.4% had no exacerbation. Baseline SGRQ and SF-36 scores were severely impaired in all groups studied. Over time, SF-36 scores did not change significantly between groups. SGRQ symptom domain scores improved in other groups but did not improve in those hospitalized for a COPD exacerbation.

CONCLUSIONS

At baseline, patients hospitalized for acute exacerbations of COPD had more impaired quality of life scores. Over time, SGRQ symptom domain scores improved in other groups but did not in those who were hospitalized. Other measurements of quality of life were not improved by hospitalization for COPD.

Early hospital readmission increases short and long - term mortality in patients with interstitial lung disease

Objective:

To investigate the prognostic impact of early readmission (30 days) on hospitalized patients with Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD).

Methods:

Observational study analysing a cohort of patients hospitalized in a respiratory ward at a University Hospital. Demographic, clinical data and survival status were collected from patients’ records. Early readmission was defined as hospitalization within 30 days after patient’s discharge. The primary outcome was 90-day and 1-year all-cause mortality.

Results:

Between 2013 to 2016, a total of 2.238 patients were admitted to the respiratory ward and 98 (%) had a diagnosis of ILD. Among them, 74 patients were discharged (25% in-hospital mortality). Early readmission was observed in 15 cases (20.2%). Early readmitted patients were more frequently current smokers (20% vs. 2%, p=0.02). After a multivariate analysis, early readmission was found to be independently associated with 90-day and 1 year mortality (Odds Ratio (OR) 17.6, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.5-69-2, p=0.001 and OR 4.5; 95CI 1.3-15.2, p=0.01, respectively).

Conclusion:

In patients with ILD, early readmission after hospitalization increases both short-term and long term mortality. Thus, preventing early readmission after discharge from hospital admission may have an impact in the clinical course of ILD patients. Further studies are required to identify factors contributing to early readmission.

Evaluation of Hospital Admission Status for Emergency Department Patients Seen for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Exacerbation: A Retrospective Observational Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a common and preventable condition. The disease accounts for a large economic burden in the US health care system. Better control and prevention of COPD exacerbations can help prevent presentations to already-crowded emergency departments (EDs) and hospitals. The objective of our study was to identify variables associated with hospital admission status in ED patients presenting with COPD exacerbation. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study of patients seen at 1 of 3 US EDs from 2012 to 2014 with a primary diagnosis related to COPD exacerbation. Hospital admission status was modeled using patient characteristic data via adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression. Study results are presented as adjusted odds ratios with 95% CIs. Planned post hoc model dependency and external data sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: The study sample included 1,165 unique patients with COPD with an ED encounter related to exacerbation at 1 of the 3 reviewed hospitals. Approximately half of these patients had a hospital admission. Variables inversely associated with an admission included oxygen saturation and number of prior ED encounters for COPD exacerbation. Variables positively associated with admission were initial ED heart rate, patient age, and documented comorbidities of anxiety and/or depression. These mental health comorbidities had the strongest association with admission status. Conclusion: Understanding the characteristics of admitted patients may help direct resources and outpatient services to prevent encounters. Of note, the study revealed mental health variables as being strongly associated with admission status.

Comorbidities and Readmissions in Survivors of Acute Hypercapnic Respiratory Failure

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is defined by chronic airflow obstruction, but is presently considered as a complex, heterogeneous, and multicomponent disease in which comorbidities and extrapulmonary manifestations make important contributions to disease expression. COPD-related hospital readmission. In particular frequent intensive care unit (ICU) readmissions for exacerbations represent a major challenge and place a high burden on patient outcomes and health-related quality of life, as well as on the healthcare system.In this narrative review, we first address major and often undiagnosed comorbidities associated with COPD that could have an impact on hospital readmission after an index ICU admission for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. Some guidance for treatment is discussed. Second, we present predictors of hospital and ICU readmission and discuss various strategies to reduce such events.There is a strong rationale to detect and treat major comorbidities early after index ICU admission for acute hypercapnic respiratory failure. It still remains unclear, however, if a comprehensive and holistic approach to comorbidities in frail patients surviving hypercapnic respiratory failure can efficiently reduce the readmission rate.

Predictors for 30-Day and 90-Day Hospital Readmission Among Patients With Opioid Use Disorder

OBJECTIVES

To identify the incidence, characteristics, and predictors for 30 and 90-day readmission among acutely hospitalized patients with opioid use disorder (OUD).

METHODS

This retrospective, cohort study evaluated consecutive adults with OUD admitted to an academic medical center over a 5-year period (10/1/11 to 9/30/16). Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine independent predictors for 30 and 90-day readmissions based on pertinent admission, hospital, and discharge variables collected via chart review and found to be different (with a P < 0.10) on univariate analysis.

RESULTS

Among the 470 adults (mean age 43.1 ± 12.8 years, past heroin use 77.9%; admission opioid agonist therapy use [buprenorphine 22.6%; methadone 27.0%]; medical [vs surgical] admission 75.3%, floor [vs ICU] admission 93.0%, in-hospital mortality 0.9%), 85 (18.2%) and 151 (32.1%) were readmitted within 30 and 90 days, respectively. Among the 90-day readmitted patients, median time to first readmission was 26 days. Buprenorphine use (vs no use) at index hospital admission was independently associated with reduced 30-day (odds ratio [OR] 0.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.24-0.93) and 90-day (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.34-0.96) readmission; prior heroin (vs prescription opioid) use was associated with reduced 90-day readmission (OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.37-0.94) and length of hospital stay was associated with both greater 30-day (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01-1.05) and 90-day (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01-1.06) readmission rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with OUD taking buprenorphine at the time of hospital admission, 30-day and 90-day hospital readmission was reduced by 53% and 43%, respectively.

Contribution of social factors to readmissions within 30 days after hospitalization for COPD exacerbation

BACKGROUND

To investigate whether, in patients hospitalized for COPD, the addition of social factors improves the predictive ability for the risk of overall 30-day readmissions, early readmissions (within 7 days after discharge), and late readmissions (8-30 days after discharge).

METHODS

Patients (aged ≥40 years) hospitalized for COPD were identified in the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey from 2006 through 2012. With the use of 1000 bootstrap resampling from the original cohort (training-set), two prediction models were derived: 1) the reference model including age, comorbidities, and mechanical ventilation use, and 2) the optimized model including social factors (e.g., educational level, marital status) in addition to the covariates in the reference model. Prediction performance was examined separately for 30-day, early, and late readmissions.

RESULTS

Following 905 index hospitalizations for COPD, 18.5% were readmitted within 30 days. In the test-set, for overall 30-day readmissions, the discrimination ability between reference and optimized models did not change materially (C-statistic, 0.57 vs. 0.58). By contrast, for early readmissions, the optimized model had significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic, 0.57 vs. 0.63; integrated discrimination improvement [IDI], 0.018 [95%CI, 0.003-0.032]) and reclassification (continuous net reclassification index [NRI], 0.298 [95%CI 0.060-0.537]). Likewise, for late readmissions, the optimized model also had significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic, 0.65 vs. 0.68; IDI, 0.026 [95%CI 0.009-0.042]) and reclassification (continuous NRI, 0.243 [95%CI 0.028-0.459]).

CONCLUSIONS

In a nationally-representative sample of Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for COPD, we found that the addition of social factors improved the predictive ability for readmissions when early and late readmissions were examined separately.

Risk factors and associated outcomes of hospital readmission in COPD: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of unplanned readmission. There is need to identify risk factors for, and strategies to prevent readmission in patients with COPD.

AIM

To systematically review and summarise the prevalence, risk factors and outcomes associated with rehospitalisation due to COPD exacerbation.

METHOD

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines were followed. Five databases were searched for relevant studies.

RESULTS

Fifty-seven studies from 30 countries met the inclusion criteria. The prevalence of COPD-related readmission varied from 2.6 to 82.2% at 30 days, 11.8-44.8% at 31-90 days, 17.9-63.0% at 6 months, and 25.0-87.0% at 12 months post-discharge. There were differences in the reported factors associated with readmissions, which may reflect variations in the local context, such as the availability of community-based services to care for exacerbations of COPD. Hospitalisation in the previous year prior to index admission was the key predictor of COPD-related readmission. Comorbidities (in particular asthma), living in a deprived area and living in or discharge to a nursing home were also associated with readmission. Relative to those without readmissions, readmitted patients had higher in-hospital mortality rates, shorter long-term survival, poorer quality of life, longer hospital stay, increased recurrence of subsequent readmissions, and accounted for greater healthcare costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospitalisation in the previous year was the principal risk factor for COPD-related readmissions. Variation in the prevalence and the reported factors associated with COPD-related readmission indicate that risk factors cannot be generalised, and interventions should be tailored to the local healthcare environment.

Multi-morbidities are Not a Driving Factor for an Increase of COPD-Related 30-Day Readmission Risk

Background and Objective

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death in the United States. COPD is expensive to treat, whereas the quality of care is difficult to evaluate due to the high prevalence of multi-morbidity among COPD patients. In the US, the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) was initiated by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to penalize hospitals for excessive 30-day readmission rates for six diseases, including COPD. This study examines the difference in 30-day readmission risk between COPD patients with and without comorbidities.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, we used Cox regression to estimate the hazard ratio of 30-day readmission rates for COPD patients who had no comorbidity and those who had one, two or three, or four or more comorbidities. We controlled for individual, hospital and geographic factors. Data came from three sources: Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases (SID), Area Health Resources Files (AHRF) and the American Hospital Association’s (AHA's) annual survey database for the year of 2013.

Results

COPD patients with comorbidities were less likely to be readmitted within 30 days relative to patients without comorbidities (aHR from 0.84 to 0.87, p < 0.05). In a stratified analysis, female patients with one comorbidity had a lower risk of 30-day readmission compared to female patients without comorbidity (aHR = 0.80, p < 0.05). Patients with public insurance who had comorbidities were less likely to be readmitted within 30 days in comparison with those who had no comorbidity (aHR from 0.79 to 0.84, p < 0.05).

Conclusion

COPD patients with comorbidities had a lower risk of 30-day readmission compared with patients without comorbidity. Future research could use a different study design to identify the effectiveness of the HRRP.

Comparative Causal Analysis of the Effects of Long-Acting Muscarinic Antagonist Versus No Long-Acting Bronchodilator Use on Readmission or Mortality After Hospitalization for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

Background

Retrospective observational studies may provide real-world evidence about long-acting muscarinic receptor antagonist (LAMA) effectiveness in reducing mortality or COPD-related readmission risk after a COPD hospitalization. Causal inference and competing risk statistical procedures aid in managing confounding and competing outcome events that complicate retrospective analyses.

Objective

To compare COPD-related readmission and mortality risk among patients receiving a LAMA versus patients receiving no long-acting bronchodilator (“no LABD”) within 30 days post-discharge.

Methods

This retrospective observational analysis of patients (aged ≥ 40 years) hospitalized for COPD used claims data (years 2004–2012). Events occurring during the period from 31 days through 12 months post-discharge were compared. The hazard ratio (HR) for the combined outcome of COPD-related readmission or mortality was estimated using Cox regression. Confounding was addressed using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW). The competing risk of non-COPD-related readmission was considered.

Results

10,405 COPD patients were included (LAMA = 751, no LABD = 9654). IPTW achieved a balanced sample (10,518 LAMA, 10,405 no LABD). Unweighted HR (LAMA vs no LABD) for COPD-related readmission or death, adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, and baseline utilization, was 1.00 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84, 1.20]. Weighted (IPTW) adjusted HR was 0.94 (95% CI 0.88, 1.00). Unweighted and weighted HRs further adjusted for competing risk were 0.97 (95% CI 0.82, 1.16) and 0.91 (0.86, 0.98), respectively.

Conclusions

Bias by indication and comorbidities make the measurement of retrospective COPD treatment effectiveness difficult. Using IPTW and additionally considering the competing event risk, LAMA use was associated with a small reduction in risk for COPD-related readmission or death over the period from 31 days to 12 months post-discharge.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s40801-019-00171-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Socioeconomic status (SES) and 30-day hospital readmissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary (COPD) disease: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are more likely to be readmitted than patients with other chronic medical conditions, yet knowledge regarding such readmissions is limited. We aimed to determine factors associated with readmission within 30 days of a COPD hospitalization or death with an emphasis on examining aspects of socioeconomic status and specific comorbidities.

METHODS

A population-based cohort study was conducted using health administrative data from Ontario, Canada. All hospitalizations for COPD between 2004 and 2014 were considered. The primary exposures were socioeconomic status as measured by residential instability (an ecologic variable), and comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. Other domains of socioeconomic status were considered as secondary exposures. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations was used to examine the effect of exposures, adjusting for other patient factors, on 30-day readmission or death.

RESULTS

There were 126,013 patients contributing to 252,756 index COPD hospitalizations from 168 Ontario hospitals. Of these hospitalizations, 19.4% resulted in a readmission and 2.8% resulted in death within 30 days. After adjusting for other factors, readmissions or death were modestly more likely among people with the highest residential instability compared to the lowest (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.01-1.09). Comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and cancer, as well as other aspects of low socioeconomic status also increased readmission or death risk.

INTERPRETATION

Socioeconomic status, measured in various ways, and many comorbidities predict 30-day readmission or death in patients hospitalized for COPD. Strategies that address these factors may help reduce readmissions and death.

Predicting Acute Exacerbations in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

BACKGROUND

With increasing health care costs that have outpaced those of other industries, payers of health care are moving from a fee-for-service payment model to one in which reimbursement is tied to outcomes. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a disease where this payment model has been implemented by some payers, and COPD exacerbations are a quality metric that is used. Under an outcomes-based payment model, it is important for health systems to be able to identify patients at risk for poor outcomes so that they can target interventions to improve outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate predictive models that could be used to identify patients at high risk for COPD exacerbations.

METHODS

This study was retrospective and observational and included COPD patients treated with a bronchodilator-based combination therapy. We used health insurance claims data to obtain demographics, enrollment information, comorbidities, medication use, and health care resource utilization for each patient over a 6-month baseline period. Exacerbations were examined over a 6-month outcome period and included inpatient (primary discharge diagnosis for COPD), outpatient, and emergency department (outpatient/emergency department visits with a COPD diagnosis plus an acute prescription for an antibiotic or corticosteroid within 5 days) exacerbations. The cohort was split into training (75%) and validation (25%) sets. Within the training cohort, stepwise logistic regression models were created to evaluate risk of exacerbations based on factors measured during the baseline period. Models were evaluated using sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. The base model included all confounding or effect modifier covariates. Several other models were explored using different sets of observations and variables to determine the best predictive model.

RESULTS

There were 478,772 patients included in the analytic sample, of which 40.5% had exacerbations during the outcome period. Patients with exacerbations had slightly more comorbidities, medication use, and health care resource utilization compared with patients without exacerbations. In the base model, sensitivity was 41.6% and specificity was 85.5%. Positive and negative predictive values were 66.2% and 68.2%, respectively. Other models that were evaluated resulted in similar test characteristics as the base model.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we were not able to predict COPD exacerbations with a high level of accuracy using health insurance claims data from COPD patients treated with bronchodilator-based combination therapy. Future studies should be done to explore predictive models for exacerbations.

DISCLOSURES

No outside funding supported this study. Samp is now employed by, and owns stock in, AbbVie. The other authors have nothing to disclose. Study concept and design were contributed by Joo and Pickard, along with the other authors. Samp and Lee performed the data analysis, with assistance from the other authors. Samp wrote the manuscript, which was revised by Schumock and Calip, along with the other authors.

Early Hospital Readmissions after an Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease in the Nationwide Readmissions Database

RATIONALE

Understanding the causes and factors related to readmission for an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) within a nationwide database including all payers and ages can provide valuable input for the development of generalizable readmission reduction strategies.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the rates, causes, and predictors for early (3-, 7-, and 30-d) readmission in patients hospitalized with AECOPD in the United States using the Nationwide Readmission Database after the initiation of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, but before its expansion to COPD.

METHODS

We conducted an analysis of the Nationwide Readmission Database from 2013 to 2014. Index admissions and readmissions for an AECOPD were defined consistent with Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program guidelines. We investigated the percentage of 30-day readmissions occurring each day after discharge and the most common readmission diagnoses at different time periods after hospitalization. The relationship between predictors (categorized as patient, clinical, and hospital factors) and early readmission were evaluated using a hierarchical two-level logistic model. To examine covariate effects on early-day readmission, predictors for 3-, 7-, and 30-day readmissions were modeled separately.

RESULTS

There were 202,300 30-day readmissions after 1,055,830 index AECOPD admissions, a rate of 19.2%. The highest readmission rates (4.2-5.5%) were within the first 72 hours of discharge, and 58% of readmissions were within the first 15 days. Respiratory-based diseases were the most common reasons for readmission (52.4%), and COPD was the most common diagnosis (28.4%). Readmission diagnoses were similar at different time periods after discharge. Early readmission was associated with patient (Medicaid payer status, lower household income, and higher comorbidity burden) and clinical factors (longer length of stay and discharge to a skilled nursing facility). Predictors did not vary substantially by time of readmission after discharge within the 30-day window.

CONCLUSIONS

Thirty-day readmissions after an AECOPD remain a major healthcare burden, and are characterized by a similar spectrum of readmission diagnoses. Predictors associated with readmission include both patient and clinical factors. Development of a COPD-specific risk stratification algorithm based on these factors may be necessary to better predict patients with AECOPD at high risk of early readmission.

Trends in Readmission Rates, Hospital Charges, and Mortality for Patients With Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) in Florida From 2009 to 2014

PURPOSE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading and costly cause of readmissions to the hospital, with one of the highest rates reported in Florida. From 2009 to 2014, strategies such as readmission reduction programs, as well as updated guidelines for COPD management, were instituted to reduce readmission rates for patients with COPD. Thus, the question has been raised whether COPD-related 30-day hospital readmission rates in Florida have decreased and whether COPD-related readmission costs during this period have changed. In addition, we examined trends in length of stay, hospital charges, and in-hospital mortality associated with COPD, as well as identified patient-level risk factors associated with 30-day readmissions.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of adult patients (≥18 years of age) with COPD was conducted by using the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Florida State Inpatient Database, 2009 to 2014. Weighted least squares regression was used to assess trends in the COPD readmission rate on a yearly basis, as well as other outcomes of interest. A multivariable logistic regression was used to identify patient characteristics that were associated with 30-day COPD readmissions.

FINDINGS

Overall, 268,084 adults were identified as having COPD. Between 2009 and 2014, more than half of patients aged 65-84 years, most were white, 55% were female, and 73% had Medicare. The unadjusted rate for COPD-related 30-day readmissions did not change (8.04% to 7.85%; P = 0.434). However, the mean total charge for 30-day COPD-related readmissions was significantly higher in 2014 ($40,611) compared with that in 2009 ($36,714) (P = 0.011). The overall unadjusted in-hospital mortality of COPD-related hospitalizations significantly decreased from 1.83% in 2009 to 1.34% in 2014 (P < 0.001). In a multivariable logistic regression model, patients with COPD were 2% less likely to be readmitted to the hospital for each additional year (odds ratio [OR], 0.98 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.97-0.99]). Factors associated with significantly higher odds of COPD-related readmission were: older age (45 ≤ age ≤ 64 years; OR, 1.91 [95% CI, 1.70-2.14]), being male (OR, 1.14 [95% CI, 1.10-1.17]), and being a Medicaid beneficiary (OR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.21-1.35]).

IMPLICATIONS

Although the adjusted odds of COPD readmissions slightly decreased, as did the length of stay and all-cause in-patient mortality, the financial burden increased substantially. Future strategies to further reduce readmissions of patients with COPD and curb financial burden in Florida are needed.

Association of energy and protein intakes with length of stay, readmission and mortality in hospitalised patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Low energy and protein intakes have been associated with an increased risk of malnutrition in outpatients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We aimed to assess the energy and protein intakes of hospitalised COPD patients according to nutritional risk status and requirements, and the relative contribution from meals, snacks, drinks and oral nutritional supplements (ONS), and to examine whether either energy or protein intake predicts outcomes. Subjects were COPD patients (n 99) admitted to Landspitali University Hospital in 1 year (March 2015–March 2016). Patients were screened for nutritional risk using a validated screening tool, and energy and protein intake for 3 d, 1–5 d after admission to the hospital, was estimated using a validated plate diagram sheet. The percentage of patients reaching energy and protein intake ≥75 % of requirements was on average 59 and 37 %, respectively. Malnourished patients consumed less at mealtimes and more from ONS than lower-risk patients, resulting in no difference in total energy and protein intakes between groups. No clear associations between energy or protein intake and outcomes were found, although the association between energy intake, as percentage of requirement, and mortality at 12 months of follow-up was of borderline significance (OR 0·12; 95 % CI 0·01, 1·15; P=0·066). Energy and protein intakes during hospitalisation in the study population failed to meet requirements. Further studies are needed on how to increase energy and protein intakes during hospitalisation and after discharge and to assess whether higher intake in relation to requirement of hospitalised COPD patients results in better outcomes.

National Estimates of 30-Day Unplanned Readmissions of Patients on Maintenance Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients on hemodialysis have high 30-day unplanned readmission rates. Using a national all-payer administrative database, we describe the epidemiology of 30-day unplanned readmissions in patients on hemodialysis, determine concordance of reasons for initial admission and readmission, and identify predictors for readmission.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS

This is a retrospective cohort study using the Nationwide Readmission Database from the year 2013 to identify index admissions and readmission in patients with ESRD on hemodialysis. The Clinical Classification Software was used to categorize admission diagnosis into mutually exclusive clinically meaningful categories and determine concordance of reasons for admission on index hospitalizations and readmissions. Survey logistic regression was used to identify predictors of at least one readmission.

RESULTS

During 2013, there were 87,302 (22%) index admissions with at least one 30-day unplanned readmission. Although patient and hospital characteristics were statistically different between those with and without readmissions, there were small absolute differences. The highest readmission rate was for acute myocardial infarction (25%), whereas the lowest readmission rate was for hypertension (20%). The primary reasons for initial hospitalization and subsequent 30-day readmission were discordant in 80% of admissions. Comorbidities that were associated with readmissions included depression (odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.05 to 1.15; P<0.001), drug abuse (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.31 to 1.51; P<0.001), and discharge against medical advice (odds ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.45 to 1.70; P<0.001). A group of high utilizers, which constituted 2% of the population, was responsible for 20% of all readmissions.

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with ESRD on hemodialysis, nearly one quarter of admissions were followed by a 30-day unplanned readmission. Most readmissions were for primary diagnoses that were different from initial hospitalization. A small proportion of patients accounted for a disproportionate number of readmissions.

Readmission After COPD Exacerbation Scale: determining 30-day readmission risk for COPD patients

BACKGROUND

COPD affects over 13 million Americans, and accounts for over half a million hospitalizations annually. The Hospital Readmission Reduction Program, established by the Affordable Care Act requires the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services to reduce payments to hospitals with excess readmissions for COPD as of 2015. This study sought to develop a predictive readmission scale to identify COPD patients at higher readmission risk.

METHODS

Demographic and clinical data on 339,389 patients from New York and California (derivation cohort) and 258,113 patients from Washington and Florida (validation cohort) were abstracted from the State Inpatient Database (2006-2011), and the Readmission After COPD Exacerbation (RACE) Scale was developed to predict 30-day readmission risk.

RESULTS

Thirty-day COPD readmission rates were 7.54% for the derivation cohort and 6.70% for the validation cohort. Factors including age 40-65 years (odds ratio [OR] 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.21), male gender (OR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.19), African American (OR 1.11; 95% CI, 1.06-1.16), 1st income quartile (OR 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.15), 2nd income quartile (OR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.10), Medicaid insured (OR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.73-1.93), Medicare insured (OR 1.45; 95% CI, 1.38-1.52), anemia (OR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09), congestive heart failure (OR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.02-1.09), depression (OR 1.18; 95% CI, 1.14-1.23), drug abuse (OR 1.17; 95% CI, 1.09-1.25), and psychoses (OR 1.19; 95% CI, 1.13-1.25) were independently associated with increased readmission rates, P<0.01. When the devised RACE scale was applied to both cohorts together, it explained 92.3% of readmission variability.

CONCLUSION

The RACE Scale reliably predicts an individual patient's 30-day COPD readmission risk based on specific factors present at initial admission. By identifying these patients at high risk of readmission with the RACE Scale, patient-specific readmission-reduction strategies can be implemented to improve patient care as well as reduce readmissions and health care expenditures.

Impact of a COPD comprehensive case management program on hospital length of stay and readmission rates

Background

COPD accounts for the highest rate of hospital admissions among major chronic diseases. COPD hospitalizations are associated with impaired quality of life, high health care utilization, and poor prognosis and result in an economic and a social burden that is both substantial and increasing.

Aim

The aim of this study is to determine the efficacy of a comprehensive case management program (CCMP) in reducing length of stay (LOS) and risk of hospital admissions and readmissions in patients with COPD.

Materials and methodology

We retrospectively compared outcomes across five large hospitals in Vancouver, BC, Canada, following the implementation of a systems approach to the management of COPD patients who were identified in the hospital and followed up in the community for 90 days. We compared numbers, rates, and intervals of readmission and LOS during 2 years of active program delivery compared to 1 year prior to program implementation.

Results

A total of 1,564 patients with a clinical diagnosis of COPD were identified from 2,719 hospital admissions during the 3 years of study. The disease management program reduced COPD-related hospitalizations by 30% and hospitalizations for all causes by 13.6%. Similarly, the rate of readmission for all causes showed a significant decline, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 0.55 (year 1) and 0.51 (year 2) of intervention (P<0.001). In addition, patients’ mean LOS (days) for COPD-related admissions declined significantly from 10.8 to 6.8 (P<0.05).

Conclusion

A comprehensive disease management program for COPD patients, including education, case management, and follow-up, was associated with significant reduction in hospital admissions and LOS.