Prognostic factors in hospitalized community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective study of a prospective observational cohort

Comparison of pneumonia severity scores for COVID-19 patients with the Omicron variant

INTRODUCTION

We demonstrated that there was a significant relationship between the severity measured using the A-DROP scoring system and the mortality rate in patients with COVID-19 community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the ancestral strain, Alpha variant, and Delta variant. We investigated the usefulness of the A-DROP scoring system in SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant CAP and compared it with severity scores, the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 score.

METHODS

We analyzed a total of 547 patients with COVID-19 CAP Omicron variant; 198 cases were the BA.1 subvariant, 127 cases were the BA.2 subvariant, and 222 cases were the BA.5 subvariant, respectively.

RESULTS

The mortality rates in patients with COVID-19 CAP among the three Omicron subvariants were identical in each pneumonia severity group. The mortality rate in patients with the Omicron variant was 0 % in patients classified with mild disease, 0.6 % in those with moderate disease, 10.4 % in those with severe disease, and 34.8 % in those with extremely severe disease. The mortality rate in patients with COVID-19 CAP increased depending on the severity classified according to the A-DROP system in each of the Omicron subvariants (Cochran-Armitage trend test; p < 0.001). The values of the area under the curve in Receiver Operating Characteristic analysis for prediction of 30-day mortality was 0.881, 0.879, and 0.863 for A-DROP, PSI, and CURB-65, respectively. There were no significant differences in the predictive ability of each pneumonia severity score.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results demonstrated that the A-DROP scoring system is useful for predicting mortality in patients with COVID-19 CAP.

Predictive Factors for 30-Day Readmissions in Elderly Patients With Pneumonia: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Pneumonia is a major concern among the elderly, with high readmission rates after hospitalization. These readmissions increase medical costs and reflect the quality of hospital care. This study aimed to explore the predictive factors associated with readmission within 30 days among elderly patients with pneumonia. Methodology This retrospective cohort study utilized the existing medical records. We included patients with pneumonia aged 75 and above who were discharged from a community hospital between April 2016 and March 2022. Patients who died during hospitalization or were transferred to other hospitals were excluded. Sex, age, length of hospital stay, Barthel Index (BI) at discharge, height, weight, body mass index, blood test findings, presence of tube feeding, Charlson Comorbidity Index, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index were used as predictive factors. The primary outcome was readmission within 30 days of discharge. A logistic regression analysis was performed. Results We included 337 patients: 50 (15%) in the readmission group and 287 (85%) in the control group. Univariate logistic regression analysis indicated low BI at discharge, and the odds ratio (OR) for readmission was 0.99 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.98-1.00). In patients with hemoglobin 10.0 g/dL or less, the OR for readmission was 2.18 (95% CI = 1.08-4.28). In patients with an NLR of 5 points or more, the OR for readmission was 2.64 (95% CI = 1.30 -5.24). In patients with aspartate transaminase of 38 U/L or more, the OR for readmission was 2.99 (95% CI = 1.07-7.68). Multivariate logistic regression revealed that an NLR of 5 points or more (adjusted OR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.12-5.14) was correlated with readmission in elderly pneumonia patients. Conclusions In elderly patients with pneumonia, a high NLR at discharge may be a potential predictor of readmission within 30 days. This could be a new finding of our study. By sharing these findings during patient discharge conferences, there is potential to assist the medical team, patients, and caregivers in predicting unforeseen short-term readmissions. Further high-quality research is required to verify the reproducibility of these findings.

The prognostic value of rapid risk scores among patients with community-acquired pneumonia : A retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a frequent reason for emergency department (ED) presentations. Various risk scores have been validated in the management of CAP and are recommended for daily practice.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the rapid risk scores (the rapid acute physiology score (RAPS), the rapid emergency medicine score (REMS), the Worthing physiological scoring system (WPS), CURB-65 and CRB-65) among patients with CAP.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted in the ED of a tertiary hospital between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019. Patients aged ≥ 18 years and diagnosed with CAP were included. Patients who were transferred from another center or with missing records were excluded. Demographic information, vital signs, level of consciousness, laboratory results, and outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 2057 patients were included in the final analysis. The 30-day mortality of the patients was 15.2% (n = 312). The WPS achieved the most successful results for all three outcomes, 30-day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mechanical ventilation (MV) needs (area under the curve, AUC 0.810, 0.918, and 0.910, respectively; p < 0.001). In the prediction of mortality, RAPS, REMS, CURB-65, and CRB-65 had a moderate overall performance (AUC 0.648, 0.752, 0.778, and 0.739, respectively). In the prediction of ICU admission and MV needs, RAPS, REMS, CURB-65, and CRB-65 had moderate to good overall performance (AUC at ICU admission 0.793, 0.873, 0.829, and 0.810; AUC for MV needs 0.759, 0.892, 0.754, and 0.738, respectively). Advanced age, lower levels of mean arterial pressure and peripheral oxygen saturation, presence of active malignancy and cerebrovascular disease, and ICU admission were associated with mortality (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The WPS outperformed other risk scores in patients with CAP and can be used safely. The CRB-65 can be used to discriminate critically ill patients with CAP due to its high specificity. The overall performances of the scores were satisfactory for all three outcomes.

The Battle of the Pneumonia Predictors: A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis Comparing the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and the CURB-65 Score in Predicting Mortality and the Need for ICU Support

The CURB-65 (confusion, uremia, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥ 65 years) score and the pneumonia severity index (PSI) are widely used and recommended in predicting 30-day mortality and the need for intensive care support in community-acquired pneumonia. This study aims to compare the performance of these two severity scores in both mortality prediction and the need for intensive care support. A systematic review and meta-analysis was carried out, following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) 2020 guidelines, and PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar were searched for articles published from 2012 to 2022. The reference lists of the included studies were also searched to retrieve possible additional studies. Twenty-five studies reporting prognostic information for CURB 65 and PSI were identified. ReviewManager (RevMan) 5.4.1 was used to produce risk ratios, and a random effects model was used to pool them. Both PSI and CURB-65 showed a high strength in identifying high-risk patients. However, CURB-65 was slightly better in early mortality prediction and had more sensitivity (96.7%) and specificity (89.3%) in predicting admission to intensive care support. Thus, CURB-65 seems to be the preferred tool in predicting mortality and the need for admission into intensive care support.

Factors affecting hospital discharge outcomes in patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a retrospective epidemiological study (2014-2021)

BACKGROUND

In patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), the risk and protective factors influencing discharge outcomes have not been fully elucidated. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the factors affecting discharge outcomes and provide a theoretical basis for improving the cure rate of patients with CAP.

METHODS

We describe a retrospective epidemiological study of patients with CAP conducted from 2014 to 2021. We used age, sex, co-morbidities, multilobar involvement, severe pneumonia, the main abnormal symptoms present on admission, and pathogen-targeted therapy as variables that may affect discharge outcomes. These variables were included in subsequent logistic regression analyses. Discharge outcomes were divided into remission and cure.

RESULTS

Of a total of 1008 patients with CAP, 247 patients were discharged as remission. The results of multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that age >65 years, smoking history, co-morbidity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, co-morbidity of chronic heart disease, co-morbidity of diabetes, co-morbidity of malignancy, co-morbidity of cerebrovascular disease, pleural effusion, hypoxemia, respiratory failure, electrolyte disturbances, and severe pneumonia were independently associated with poor discharge outcomes (all P < 0.05), while pathogen-targeted therapy (odds ratio: 0.32, 95% confidence interval: 0.16-0.62) was found as a protective factor.

CONCLUSIONS

Age > 65 years, the presence of co-morbidities, the presence of admission symptoms such as electrolyte disturbances, and severe pneumonia are associated with a poor discharge outcome, while pathogen-targeted therapy is associated with a good discharge outcome. Patients with CAP with a defined pathogen are more likely to be cured. Our results suggest that accurate and efficient pathogen testing is essential for CAP inpatients.

Outcomes and Predictors of Severe Community-acquired Pneumonia Among Adults Admitted to the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital: A Prospective Follow-up Study

Background

Severe community-acquired pneumonia is a common life-threatening infection with a high rate of unfavorable outcome. This study aimed to assess the outcomes and predictors of hospitalized severe community-acquired pneumonia patients at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital.

Methods

A prospective follow-up study was conducted at University of Gondar comprehensive specialized hospital from May 1 to September 31, 2021. The data was collected by reviewing patients' charts and interviewing the patients themselves. Descriptive statistics, binary and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed accordingly. Variables with p-value <0.2 on binary logistic regression were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression and variables with p<0.05 were considered to have significant association.

Results

A total of 239 admitted patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia were enrolled in the study. An unfavorable outcome was observed in 105 (44%) patients; 24.27% was in-hospital all-cause mortality, 12.5% was nonresolution, 5.8% was complicated cases, and 1.26% were gone against medical care for poor prognosis. After analyzing multivariable logistic regression, confusion (OR= 4.84; 95%CI: 1.47-15.88), anemia (OR= 2.36; 95%CI: 1.01-5.52), leukopenia (OR=4.38; 95%CI: 1.26-15.25), leukocytosis (OR=3.15; 95%CI: 1.23-7.96), elevated creatinine (OR=5.67; 95%CI: 1.72-18.65), intubation (OR=7.27; 95%CI: 1.58-33.37) and antibiotic revision during treatment for a different reason (OR=0.02; 95%CI: 0.01-0.07) were variables significantly associated with unfavorable outcome.

Conclusion

Unfavorable outcome was high among hospitalized severe community acquired pneumonia patients, and confusion, elevated creatinine, anemia, leukopenia, leukocytosis, intubation during admission, and antibiotic revision during the course were independent predictors associated significantly with the unfavorable outcome. It is important to consider the development of a treatment protocol for the hospital and to further research incorporating the microbiologic profile of the patients.

Development and validation of a survival prediction model in elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia: a MIMIC-population-based study

BACKGROUND

To develop a prediction model predicting in-hospital mortality of elder patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU).

METHODS

In this cohort study, data of 619 patients with CAP aged ≥ 65 years were obtained from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC III) 2001-2012 database. To establish the robustness of predictor variables, the sample dataset was randomly partitioned into a training set group and a testing set group (ratio: 6.5:3.5). The predictive factors were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression, and then a prediction model was constructed. The prediction model was compared with the widely used assessments: Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), systolic blood pressure, oxygenation, age and respiratory rate (SOAR), CURB-65 scores using positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), accuracy (ACC), area under the curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to assess the net benefit of the prediction model. Subgroup analysis based on the pathogen was developed.

RESULTS

Among 402 patients in the training set, 90 (24.63%) elderly CAP patients suffered from 30-day in-hospital mortality, with the median follow-up being 8 days. Hemoglobin/platelets ratio, age, respiratory rate, international normalized ratio, ventilation use, vasopressor use, red cell distribution width/blood urea nitrogen ratio, and Glasgow coma scales were identified as the predictive factors that affect the 30-day in-hospital mortality. The AUC values of the prediction model, the SOFA, SOAR, PSI and CURB-65 scores, were 0.751 (95% CI 0.749-0.752), 0.672 (95% CI 0.670-0.674), 0.607 (95% CI 0.605-0.609), 0.538 (95% CI 0.536-0.540), and 0.645 (95% CI 0.643-0.646), respectively. DCA result demonstrated that the prediction model could provide greater clinical net benefits to CAP patients admitted to the ICU. Concerning the pathogen, the prediction model also reported better predictive performance.

CONCLUSION

Our prediction model could predict the 30-day hospital mortality in elder patients with CAP and guide clinicians to identify the high-risk population.

Performance of Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Community-Acquired Pneumonia

Background: The ability to assess adverse outcomes in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) could improve clinical decision-making to enhance clinical practice, but the studies remain insufficient, and similarly, few machine learning (ML) models have been developed.

Objective: We aimed to explore the effectiveness of predicting adverse outcomes in CAP through ML models.

Methods: A total of 2,302 adults with CAP who were prospectively recruited between January 2012 and March 2015 across three cities in South America were extracted from DryadData. After a 70:30 training set: test set split of the data, nine ML algorithms were executed and their diagnostic accuracy was measured mainly by the area under the curve (AUC). The nine ML algorithms included decision trees, random forests, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machines, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbors, ridge regression, logistic regression without regularization, and neural networks. The adverse outcomes included hospital admission, mortality, ICU admission, and one-year post-enrollment status.

Results: The XGBoost algorithm had the best performance in predicting hospital admission. Its AUC reached 0.921, and accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score were better than those of other models. In the prediction of ICU admission, a model trained with the XGBoost algorithm showed the best performance with AUC 0.801. XGBoost algorithm also did a good job at predicting one-year post-enrollment status. The results of AUC, accuracy, precision, recall, and F1-score indicated the algorithm had high accuracy and precision. In addition, the best performance was seen by the neural network algorithm when predicting death (AUC 0.831).

Conclusions: ML algorithms, particularly the XGBoost algorithm, were feasible and effective in predicting adverse outcomes of CAP patients. The ML models based on available common clinical features had great potential to guide individual treatment and subsequent clinical decisions.

Discriminant models for the prediction of postponed viral shedding time and disease progression in COVID-19

Background

COVID-19 infection can cause life-threatening respiratory disease. This study aimed to fully characterize the clinical features associated with postponed viral shedding time and disease progression, then develop and validate two prognostic discriminant models.

Methods

This study included 125 hospitalized patients with COVID-19, for whom 44 parameters were recorded, including age, gender, underlying comorbidities, epidemiological features, laboratory indexes, imaging characteristics and therapeutic regimen, et al. Fisher's exact test and Mann–Whitney test were used for feature selection. All models were developed with fourfold cross-validation, and the final performances of each model were compared by the Area Under Receiving Operating Curve (AUROC). After optimizing the parameters via L₂ regularization, prognostic discriminant models were built to predict postponed viral shedding time and disease progression of COVID-19 infection. The test set was then used to detect the predictive values via assessing models’ sensitivity and specificity.

Results

Sixty-nine patients had a postponed viral shedding time (> 14 days), and 28 of 125 patients progressed into severe cases. Six and eleven demographic, clinical features and therapeutic regimen were significantly associated with postponed viral shedding time and disease progressing, respectively (p < 0.05). The optimal discriminant models are: y₁ (postponed viral shedding time) = − 0.244 + 0.2829x₁ (the interval from the onset of symptoms to antiviral treatment) + 0.2306x₄ (age) + 0.234x₂₈ (Urea) − 0.2847x₃₄ (Dual-antiviral therapy) + 0.3084x₃₈ (Treatment with antibiotics) + 0.3025x₂₁ (Treatment with Methylprednisolone); y₂ (disease progression) = − 0.348–0.099x₂ (interval from Jan 1st,2020 to individualized onset of symptoms) + 0.0945x₄ (age) + 0.1176x₅ (imaging characteristics) + 0.0398x₈ (short-term exposure to Wuhan) − 0.1646x₁₉ (lymphocyte counts) + 0.0914x₂₀ (Neutrophil counts) + 0.1254x₂₁ (Neutrphil/lymphocyte ratio) + 0.1397x₂₂ (C-Reactive Protein) + 0.0814x₂₃ (Procalcitonin) + 0.1294x₂₄ (Lactic dehydrogenase) + 0.1099x₂₉ (Creatine kinase).The output ≥ 0 predicted postponed viral shedding time or disease progressing to severe/critical state. These two models yielded the maximum AUROC and faired best in terms of prognostic performance (sensitivity of78.6%, 75%, and specificity of 66.7%, 88.9% for prediction of postponed viral shedding time and disease severity, respectively).

Conclusion

The two discriminant models could effectively predict the postponed viral shedding time and disease severity and could be used as early-warning tools for COVID-19.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12879-022-07338-x.

Prognostic value of geriatric nutritional risk index for aspiration pneumonia: a retrospective observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

The clinical characteristics and prognostic factors of aspiration pneumonia remain poorly defined. Geriatric nutrition risk index (GNRI) has recently been reported to exhibit a prognostic value for several diseases in older adults.

AIMS

We investigated the clinical characteristics and prognostic significance of GNRI for aspiration pneumonia in older adult patients.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational cohort study, conducted in a single-institute acute-phase community hospital, patients with aspiration pneumonia diagnosed at our institute between April 2014 and March 2016 were enrolled. Data on patient characteristics, microbiological findings, and clinical course were collected. The outcome was in-hospital mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis was conducted to compare the predictive value of each parameter. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Overall, 587 aspiration pneumonia patients aged ≥ 65 years were enrolled. Their mean age was 86 years. Among them, 97 (16.5%) died. In ROC analysis for in-hospital mortality, as compared to albumin, body mass index, and A-DROP score, GNRI had a greater area under the curve value, with a significant difference between GNRI and albumin (p = 0.0058). Male sex (p = 0.028), chronic heart failure (p = 0.023), history of malignancy (p = 0.0025), lower GNRI (p < 0.001), and initial antibiotic change (p < 0.001) were identified as independent adverse prognostic factors in multivariate analysis.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that GNRI is a potential prognostic marker for older adults with aspiration pneumonia and may act as a proxy for disease severity. Our results support the use of GNRI in the clinical management of aspiration pneumonia.

Can blood urea Nitrogen-to-Albumin ratio predict mortality in patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia hospitalized in the intensive care unit?

OBJECTIVE

Many laboratory parameters allow to follow up the course of the disease and reveal its clinical severity, particularly in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of the blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio in predicting the mortality in COVID-19 patients with moderate-to-severe disease who are hospitalized in the intensive care unit.

METHODS

A total of 358 patients who were hospitalized in intensive care unit at our hospital between November 1, 2020 and May 15, 2021 were included in this study. During their course of intensive care, surviving patients were included in Group 1 and nonsurviving patients in Group 2.

RESULTS

There were no statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of gender, smoking, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease rates. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, advanced age (OR 1.038, 95%CI 1.014-1.064, p=0.002), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR 1.226, 95%CI 1.020-1.475, p=0.030), blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio (OR 2.693, 95%CI 2.019-3.593, p<0.001), and chest computed tomography severity score (OR 1.163, 95%CI 1.105-1.225, p<0.001) values were determined as independent predictors for in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSION

In this study, we showed that the blood urea nitrogen-to-albumin ratio, which was previously shown as a predictor of mortality in patients with various pneumonia, was an independent predictor of mortality in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Factors associated with mortality in younger and older (≥75 years) hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia is among the most serious infections in the elderly. The evaluation of prognosis and predicting the outcome is essential in managing the treatment of patients with pneumonia.

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate factors that might affect the mortality of elderly patients hospitalized for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in two age groups.

DESIGN

Medical record review.

SETTINGS

Tertiary care hospital.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The study included CAP patients who were hospitalized during the period from January 2017 and December 2019. The CURB-65 scale was chosen to assess the severity of pneumonia on admission. Multivariate analyses were conducted separately for patients younger than 75 years and 75 years or older.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

30-day mortality, factors associated with mortality.

SAMPLE SIZE AND CHARACTERISTICS

1603 patients with a median age of 74, including 918 women (57%).

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality rate was 6.5%. Patients with carbapenem-resistant gram-negative bacteria had lower survival rates (P<.0001). In the multivariate analysis, age, lung cancer, CURB-65, carbapenem resistance, and duration of hospital stay were associated with mortality in patients aged 75 years or older. Lung cancer, malignant disease, carbapenem resistance, duration of hospital stay and procalcitonin level were associated with mortality under the age of 75. Of 640 sputum cultures tested, P aeruginosa (42%) was the most common pathogen.

CONCLUSION

The risk factors that affected mortality differed among patients aged 75 years or older versus younger patients. Our findings are important in determining factors associated with mortality in managing the treatment and follow up of hospitalized CAP patients younger or 75 years of age or older.

LIMITATIONS

Single-center, retrospective.

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

None.

Halim FS, Rehman AU, Hussain R. Adherence to National Antimicrobial Guidelines in Hospitalized Geriatric Patients with Community-Acquired Pneumonia: A Prospective Observational study in a Malaysian Hospital

The evaluation of disease progression and onsite therapeutic care choices for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) patients is vital for their well-being and the optimum utilization of healthcare resources. The current study was conducted to assess physicians’ adherence to clinical practice standards and antibiotic prescribing behavior for the treatment of CAP in older people. A prospective study that included 121 consecutive patients admitted for CAP was conducted at Kulim Hospital, Kedah, from March 2020 to August 2020. Medical records including demographic data, comorbidity, physical examination, laboratory or radiologic findings, and drugs used for the treatment of CAP were accessed from bed head tickets (BHT). The mean age for patients was 73.5 ± 6.2 years, 73 (60.3%) and 48 (39.6%) were males and females, respectively. Amoxicillin/clavulanate (19.8%) was the most prescribed antibiotic for non-severe pneumonia followed by ampicillin sodium/sulbactam sodium (6.6%), while in patients with severe CAP beta-lactam + beta lactamase inhibitors (BLIs) with a combination of macrolide were the most common antibiotics prescribed either in patients with (21.4%) or without co-morbidities (8.2%). The average length of stay in the hospital with severe pneumonia was 6–7 days for 23.9% of patients and < 5 days for 21.4% of patients. The duration of intravenous antibiotics in patients with severe pneumonia was 6–7 days for 32.2% of patients. The present findings revealed the adherence of antibiotic prescribing practices to the Malaysian National Antimicrobial Guideline 2019 for CAP therapy among geriatric patients and adherence to the CAP criteria for hospital admissions.

A literature review of severity scores for adults with influenza or community-acquired pneumonia - implications for influenza vaccines and therapeutics

Influenza vaccination and antiviral therapeutics may attenuate disease, decreasing severity of illness in vaccinated and treated persons. Standardized assessment tools, definitions of disease severity, and clinical endpoints would support characterizing the attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals. We review potential clinical parameters and endpoints that may be useful for ordinal scales evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and antivirals in hospital-based studies. In studies of influenza and community-acquired pneumonia, common physiologic parameters that predicted outcomes such as mortality, ICU admission, complications, and duration of stay included vital signs (hypotension, tachypnea, fever, hypoxia), laboratory results (blood urea nitrogen, platelets, serum sodium), and radiographic findings of infiltrates or effusions. Ordinal scales based on these parameters may be useful endpoints for evaluating attenuating effects of influenza vaccines and therapeutics. Factors such as clinical and policy relevance, reproducibility, and specificity of measurements should be considered when creating a standardized ordinal scale for assessment.

Legionella pneumophila pneumonia with rapid clinical course in a lung cancer patient

We report an acute clinical course of pneumonia caused by Legionella pneumophila in a patient receiving chemotherapy for lung cancer and corticosteroid therapy. A 57-year-old man presented with fever and dyspnoea and was admitted to our hospital. Chest computed tomography revealed a new left lower lung infiltrate, tumour progression in the right upper lung region, metastases to lymph nodes and pleural effusion. The urinary antigen test for Legionella was positive. The patient's oxygen requirement increased on the day of admission, and he died the day after hospitalization. Legionnaires' disease may manifest with an acute presentation, and patients in Japan with physical risk factors for this disease could get infected despite the absence of environmental risk factors. Early treatment for suspected Legionnaire's disease should be considered.

Prognostic factors in patients hospitalized with community-acquired aspiration pneumonia

INTRODUCTION

Patients with aspiration pneumonia (AP) exhibit higher mortality than those with non-AP. However, data regarding predictors of short-term prognosis in patients with community-acquired AP are limited.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) were retrospectively classified into aspiration pneumonia (AP) and non-AP groups. The AP patients were further divided into nonsurvivors and survivors by 30-day mortality, and various clinical variables were compared between the groups.

RESULTS

Of 1249 CAP patients, 254 (20.3%) were classified into the AP group, of whom 76 patients (29.9%) died within 30 days. CURB-65, pneumonia severity index (PSI), and Infectious Diseases Society of America/American Thoracic Society criteria for severe CAP (SCAP) showed only modest prognostic performance for the prediction of 30-day mortality (c-statistics, 0.635, 0.647, and 0.681, respectively). Along with the PSI and SCAP, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS) and blood biomarkers, including, N-terminal of prohormone brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and albumin, were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. In models based on clinical prediction rules, including CURB-65, PSI, and SCAP, the addition of ECOG-PS further improved their c-statistics compared to the clinical prediction rules alone. In the four combinations based on SCAP, ECOG-PS, and two blood biomarkers (NT-proBNP and albumin), the c-statistics further increased to reach approximately 0.8.

CONCLUSIONS

CURB-65, PSI, and SCAP exhibited only modest discriminatory power in predicting the 30-day mortality of patients with community-acquired AP. The addition of performance status and blood biomarkers, including NT-proBNP and albumin, further increased prognostic performance, showing good predictive accuracy in the SCAP-based model.

Time Trend of the Sensitivity of the Pneumococcal Urinary Antigen Test for Diagnosing Pneumococcal Community-Acquired Pneumonia: An Analysis of 15-Year, Prospective Cohort Data

Introduction

Whether the sensitivity of the BinaxNOW Streptococcus pneumoniae urinary antigen test kit (BinaxNOW), adjusted by some variables including vital signs, laboratory examinations and pneumonia severity, has been decreasing is unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether BinaxNOW sensitivity has decreased recently and to identify the predictors of the BinaxNOW result, including the time trend.

Methods

This prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive patients with pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia who were hospitalised at Kurashiki Central Hospital from January 2001 to December 2015. Pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia was defined as positive blood or pleural effusion or sputum culture results. To evaluate the effect of the time trend for the sensitivity of BinaxNOW, time series regression analysis was performed. In addition, predictors of the BinaxNOW result were examined by multivariable analysis using variables such as sex, vital signs, blood tests such as C-reactive protein, albumin, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, white blood cell count, haematocrit and platelets, antibiotic pre-treatment, bacteraemia, and pneumonia severity, in addition to time trend and seasonality.

Results

A total of 446 patients were included. BinaxNOW sensitivity showed a significant, gradual decrease from 2001 (81.3%) to 2015 (48.7%). On multivariable analysis [odds ratio (95% confidence interval)], bacteraemia [2.516 (1.387–4.561), P = 0.002] was a predictor of a positive BinaxNOW result, whereas male sex [0.467 (0.296–0.736), P = 0.001], white blood cell count [0.959 (0.930–0.989), P = 0.008] and the time trend per year [0.900 (0.859–0.943), P < 0.001] were predictors of a negative BinaxNOW result.

Conclusions

The sensitivity of BinaxNOW decreased over a 15-year period. We should be careful when interpreting BinaxNOW results in daily clinical practice, and the development of a new kit with good sensitivity is anticipated.

Trial registration number

UMIN000004353.

Evaluation of severity scoring systems in patients with severe community acquired pneumonia

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of severity scoring systems to predict 30-day mortality in patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia.

METHODS

The study included 98 patients aged ≥18 years with community acquired pneumonia hospitalized at the Intensive Care Unit of the University Clinic for Infectious Diseases in Skopje, Republic of North Macedonia, during a 3-year period. We recorded demographic, clinical and common biochemical parameters. Five severity scores were calculated at admission: CURB 65 (Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure, Age ≥65 years), SCAP (Severe Community Acquired Pneumonia score), SAPS II (Simplified Acute Physiology Score), SOFA (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Score) and MPM (Mortality Prediction Model). Primary outcome variable was 30-day in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 59.08 ± 15.76 years, predominantly males (68%). The overall 30-day mortality was 52%. Charlson Comorbidity index was increased in non-survivors (3.72 ± 2.33) and was associated with the outcome. All severity indexes had higher values in patients who died, that showed statistical significance between the analysed groups. The areas under curve (AUC) values of the five scores for 30-day mortality were 0.670, 0.732, 0,726, 0.785 and 0.777, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Widely used severity scores accurately detected patients with pneumonia that had increased risk for poor outcome, but none of them individually demonstrated any advantage over the others.

Predictors and usefulness of targeted therapy for pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia diagnosed by the urinary antigen test: a prospective, observational cohort study

The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictors of targeted therapy (TT) for pneumococcal community-acquired pneumonia (PCAP) with a positive urinary antigen test (UAT) and compare the outcomes with those of nontargeted therapy. This prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive PCAP patients with a positive UAT who were hospitalized at Kurashiki Central Hospital from October 2010 to November 2019. A total of 286 patients were included. Of them, 56 patients (19.6%) were included in the TT group. On multivariate analysis, identification of Gram-positive diplococci by Gram stain (OR [95% CI]: 2.46 [1.32-4.63]) was a positive predictor, whereas aspiration pneumonia (0.17 [0.03-0.59]) and CURB-65 score (0.59 [0.42-0.81]) were negative predictors of TT. Initial treatment failure and 30-day mortality were not significantly different. The UAT is not used enough for TT, and TT for PCAP did not have worse outcomes.

Usefulness of β-lactam and macrolide combination therapy for treating community-acquired pneumonia patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit: Propensity score analysis of a prospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Whether β-lactam and macrolide combination therapy reduces mortality in severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP) patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit (ICU) is controversial. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the usefulness of β-lactam and macrolide combination therapy for SCAP patients hospitalized in the ICU.

METHODS

A prospective, observational, cohort study of hospitalized pneumonia patients was performed. Hospitalized SCAP patients admitted to the ICU within 24 h between October 2010 and October 2017 were included for analysis. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality, and secondary outcomes were 14-day mortality and ICU mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis as a propensity score analysis was used to reduce biases, including six covariates: age, sex, C-reactive protein, albumin, Pneumonia Severity Index score, and APACHE II score.

RESULTS

A total of 78 patients were included, with 48 patients in the non-macrolide-containing β-lactam therapy group and 30 patients in the macrolide combination therapy group. β-lactam and macrolide combination therapy significantly decreased 30-day mortality (16.7% vs. 43.8%; P = 0.015) and 14-day mortality (6.7% vs. 31.3%; P = 0.020), but not ICU mortality (10% vs 27.1%, P = 0.08) compared with non-macrolide-containing β-lactam therapy. After adjusting by IPTW, macrolide combination therapy also decreased 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 0.29; 95%CI, 0.09-0.96; P = 0.04) and 14-day mortality (odds ratio, 0.19; 95%CI, 0.04-0.92; P = 0.04), but not ICU mortality (odds ratio, 0.34; 95%CI, 0.08-1.36; P = 0.13).

CONCLUSIONS

Combination therapy with β-lactam and macrolides significantly improved the prognosis of SCAP patients hospitalized in the ICU compared with a non-macrolide-containing β-lactam regimen.

Increased risk of Legionella pneumonia as community-acquired pneumonia after heavy rainfall in 2018 in west Japan

INTRODUCTION

Japan experienced a heavy rainfall event from June 28 to July 8, 2018, and many casualties were caused by both heavy rainfall and flooding. Few studies have investigated patients' characteristics and the causative pathogens of community-acquired pneumonia before and after heavy rainfall events. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the causative pathogens and clinical characteristics of hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia before and after the heavy rainfall event using prospective cohort data.

METHODS

The study was divided into two periods: July to November 2013-2017 (before heavy rainfall) and July to November 2018 (after heavy rainfall). The patients' clinical characteristics and causative pathogens before and after the heavy rainfall were investigated. Regarding the causative pathogens, adjustments were made for precipitation and seasonal patterns.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in the number and clinical characteristics of patients before and after heavy rainfall. However, the frequency of Legionella pneumonia was significantly higher after than before the heavy rainfall event (8.9% vs 3.0%, P = 0.02) and remained significant after adjusting for precipitation and season. Three of 7 Legionella pneumonia patients engaged in reconstruction work and 2 Legionella pneumonia patients had soil exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

An increased risk of Legionella pneumonia after not only rainfall and serious flooding, but also following recovery work or soil exposure should be considered.

The prognostic value of serum albumin levels and respiratory rate for community-acquired pneumonia: A prospective, multi-center study

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is a respiratory disease frequently requiring hospital admission, and a significant cause of death worldwide. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of clinical indicators. A prospective, multi-center study was conducted (January 2017-December 2018) where patient demographic and clinical data were recorded (N = 366). The 30-day mortality rate was 5.46%. Cox Regression analyses showed that serum albumin (ALB) and respiratory rate (RR) were independent prognostic variables for 30-day survival in patients with CAP. Albumin negatively correlated with the Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) and CURB-65 scores using Pearson and Spearman tests. Survival curves showed that a RR >24 breaths/min or ALB ≤30 g/L were associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with CAP was 0.762, 0.763, 0.790, and 0.784 for ALB, RR, PSI, and CURB-65, respectively. The AUC for the prediction of 30-day mortality using ALB combined with PSI, CURB-65 scores, and RR was 0.822 (95% CI 0.731-0.912), 0.847 (95% CI 0.755-0.938), and 0.847 (95% CI 0.738-0.955), respectively. Albumin and RR were found to be reliable prognostic factors for CAP. This combination showed equal predictive value when compared to adding ALB assessment to PSI and CURB-65 scores, which could improve their prognostic accuracy.

Diagnostic Performance of a Blood Urea Nitrogen to Creatinine Ratio-based Nomogram for Predicting In-hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients

Background

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is leading to high morbidity and mortality. This aim of this study was to test whether blood urea nitrogen-to-creatinine ratio (BCR) is a predictor for mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Methods

Ranges of "normal" BCR values were calculated from 9165 healthy subjects, and 337 and 79 COVID-19 patients were randomly assigned to the training cohort and the validation cohort, respectively. Prognostic factor of death incidence was selected by LASSO regression analyses. The prognostic ability of BCR range was assessed by logistic regression analysis. A nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality based on BCR was developed. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated with respect to its calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness.

Results

Among 337 COVID-19 patients, 13.4% and 11.3% were classified into higher and lower than normal range group, respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves for all-cause mortality showed that patients with higher BCR group had worse prognosis (P<0.0001). BCR above the normal range was independently associated with death in COVID-19 patients (OR: 7.54; 95%CI: 1.55-36.66; P=0.012). The nomogram had good discrimination in the training cohort (C-index 0.838; 0.795-0.880) and the validation cohort (C-index 0.929; 0.869-0.989), and good calibration. Using maximum Youden index, the cutoff values of 59.8 points, the sensitivity and specificity were 75.4% and 81%. Decision curve and clinical impact curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful.

Conclusion

BCR was a useful prognostic factor for COVID-19 patients. Development of an individualized BCR-based prediction nomogram can effectively predict the risk of mortality and help clinicians to make individual treatment early.

Risk of community-acquired pneumonia requiring hospitalization in patients with spondyloarthritis

AIMS

To compare the risk of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) requiring hospitalization in spondyloarthritis (SpA) and non-specific back pain (NSBP), and to identify the risk factors for CAP in SpA.

METHODS

A total of 2984 patients with SpA from 11 rheumatology centers and 2526 patients with NSBP from orthopedic units were reviewed from the centralized electronic database in Hong Kong. Incidence of CAP requiring hospitalization and demographic data including age, gender, smoking and drinking status, use of sulfasalazine, individual biological-disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) used, micro-organisms, other immunosuppressants or immunosuppressive states, use of steroid for more than ½ year, and co-morbidities were identified. Risks of CAP in SpA were compared with those in NSBP using propensity score regression method. Multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify the risk factors in SpA.

RESULTS

CAP requiring hospitalization was found in 183 patients with SpA and 138 patients with NSBP. Increased risk for CAP was found in the following groups with SpA: all subgroups (hazard ratio (HR) 2.14, p < 0.001), without use of DMARDs (HR 2.64, p < 0.001), without psoriasis and not taking DMARDs (HR 2.38, p < 0.001). Infliximab (HR2.55, p = 0.04), smoking (HR 1.68, p = 0.003), comorbid psoriasis (HR 1.67, p = 0.003), and use of steroid for more than ½ year (HR 1.94, p = 0.003) were found to associate with CAP after adjustments for traditional risk factors.

CONCLUSION

Risk of CAP is increased in patients with SpA. Our data favor universal influenza and pneumococcal vaccination programs in the population. Rheumatologists should also advise smoking cessation and avoid long term steroid therapy.

Impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on mortality in community acquired pneumonia: a meta-analysis

Background: The aim of the present study was to systematically review the exiting literature and to proceed a meta-analysis to determine the impact of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. Materials & methods: Eligible studies were searched from PubMed, Cochrane Library and EMBASE. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs were used as effect estimates. Results: Twenty cohort studies were included. Analysis of unadjusted data revealed nonsignificant short- and long-term mortality associated with COPD. Analysis of adjusted 30-days mortality showed similarly no association between COPD and increased 30-days mortality (OR: 1.06, [0.68, 1.44]) but a positive association when COPD was confirmed spirometrically (OR: 1.84, [1.06, 2.62]). Conclusion: There is still no evidence to clear the impact of COPD on mortality in patients with community acquired pneumonia. More prospective studies with spirometrically-defined COPD and adequate adjustment for confounders are needed.

Updates on community acquired pneumonia management in the ICU

While the world is grappling with the consequences of a global pandemic related to SARS-CoV-2 causing severe pneumonia, available evidence points to bacterial infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae as the most common cause of severe community acquired pneumonia (SCAP). Rapid diagnostics and molecular testing have improved the identification of co-existent pathogens. However, mortality in patients admitted to ICU remains staggeringly high.

The American Thoracic Society and Infectious Diseases Society of America have updated CAP guidelines to help streamline disease management. The common theme is use of timely, appropriate and adequate antibiotic coverage to decrease mortality and avoid drug resistance. Novel antibiotics have been studied for CAP and extend the choice of therapy, particularly for those who are intolerant of, or not responding to standard treatment, including those who harbor drug resistant pathogens. In this review, we focus on the risk factors, microbiology, site of care decisions and treatment of patients with SCAP.

Risk Factors of In-Hospital Mortality in Patients Treated for Pneumonia at a Tertiary Care Centre in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

Little is known about risk factors upon hospital admission that are associated with in-hospital death of patients hospitalized for bacterial pneumonia. Identifying such factors may help to optimize the treatment and lower the mortality of these patients.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to characterize baseline characteristics of patients hospitalized for bacterial pneumonia in Switzerland and to identify risk factors associated with all-cause in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

Routinely collected electronic health record data of patients discharged from a large Swiss tertiary care hospital between August 2009 and 2017 were analysed. Potential risk factors such as patient demographics, physical examination findings, vital signs, laboratory results, and comorbidities were considered within ±24 h of admission. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models identified risk factors for in-hospital death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to compare the identified factors to existing pneumonia scoring systems.

RESULTS

Out of 1,781 hospital stays with initial and main diagnosis of bacterial pneumonia, 85 patients (4.85%) died (33.9% female, median age 62.3 years [interquartile range, 52-75]). Age, low systolic blood pressure, underweight, a missing value for body mass index, decreased haemoglobin level, raised C-reactive protein, high urea, high lactate dehydrogenase, concomitant pleural effusion, and cancer were independently associated with in-hospital death. The area under the ROC curve was 0.89 for the multivariable model containing the identified predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data are consistent with previous trials characterizing patients hospitalized for pneumonia. Additionally, we identified new and independent risk factors associated with in-hospital death among patients treated for bacterial pneumonia. Findings need to be further validated in larger multicentre cohorts.

Development and validation a nomogram for predicting the risk of severe COVID-19: A multi-center study in Sichuan, China

BACKGROUND

Since December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan and spread across the globe. The objective of this study is to build and validate a practical nomogram for estimating the risk of severe COVID-19.

METHODS

A cohort of 366 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 was used to develop a prediction model using data collected from 47 locations in Sichuan province from January 2020 to February 2020. The primary outcome was the development of severe COVID-19 during hospitalization. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to reduce data size and select relevant features. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a prediction model incorporating the selected features. The performance of the nomogram regarding the C-index, calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness was assessed. Internal validation was assessed by bootstrapping.

RESULTS

The median age of the cohort was 43 years. Severe patients were older than mild patients by a median of 6 years. Fever, cough, and dyspnea were more common in severe patients. The individualized prediction nomogram included seven predictors: body temperature at admission, cough, dyspnea, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronic liver disease, and chronic kidney disease. The model had good discrimination with an area under the curve of 0.862, C-index of 0.863 (95% confidence interval, 0.801-0.925), and good calibration. A high C-index value of 0.839 was reached in the interval validation. Decision curve analysis showed that the prediction nomogram was clinically useful.

CONCLUSION

We established an early warning model incorporating clinical characteristics that could be quickly obtained on admission. This model can be used to help predict severe COVID-19 and identify patients at risk of developing severe disease.

Ankylosing spondylitis and mortality following hospitalised pneumonia: a population-based cohort study

Objective

Little is known about the prognosis of infections in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) compared with patients without AS. The purpose of this study was to examine whether AS is associated with poorer outcomes in patients who are hospitalised with pneumonia.

Methods

In a population-based cohort study including patients with hospitalised pneumonia with and without AS, we compared 90-day rates of mortality, all-cause readmission (90 days post-discharge) and pulmonary complications including pulmonary embolism, empyema and pulmonary abscess. We used Cox regression analyses to compute crude and adjusted HRs while adjusting for sex, age and level of comorbidity.

Results

A total of 387 796 patients (median age 71 years) were hospitalised for pneumonia in Denmark between 1997 and 2017. Among these, 842 (0.2%) had AS (median age 65 years). The 90-day mortality was 12.5% in patients with AS and 15.5% in patients with non-AS pneumonia, with crude and adjusted 90-day HRs of 0.79 (95% CI 0.66 to 0.96) and 0.95 (95% CI 0.79 to 1.16), respectively. The 90-day post-discharge readmission rate was 27.3% in patients with AS and 25.4% in patients without AS, with a corresponding adjusted readmission HR of 1.12 (95% CI 0.98 to 1.27). Relative risk of pulmonary complications among patients with AS compared with patients without AS decreased over the study period, with adjusted HRs of 1.63 (95% CI 0.82 to 3.27) in 1997–2006 falling to 0.62 (95% CI 0.31 to 1.23) in 2007–2017.

Conclusions

AS is not associated with increased mortality following hospitalisation for pneumonia. Furthermore, no increased risk of readmission or pulmonary complications in patients with AS was detected in recent study years.

New antibiotics for community-acquired pneumonia

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review provides the rationale for the development of new antibiotics to treat community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). It also provides an overview of the new antibiotics targeting CAP that have recently received approval by the regulatory agencies, and those antibiotics that are in the development pipeline.

RECENT FINDINGS

CAP is one of the most common reasons for hospitalization and carries a significant morbidity and risk of mortality. Increasing antibiotic resistance amongst the common bacterial pathogens associated with CAP, especially staphylococci and Streptococcus pneumoniae, has made the empiric treatment of this infection increasingly problematic. Moreover, failure of initial empiric therapy to cover the causative agents associated with CAP can be associated with worse clinical outcomes. There have been several antibiotics newly approved or in development for the treatment of CAP. These agents include delafloxacin, omadacycline, lefamulin, solithromycin, nemonoxacin, and ceftaroline. Their major advantages include activity against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and macrolide-resistant Strep. pneumoniae.

SUMMARY

CAP continues to be an important infection because of its impact on patient outcomes especially in the elderly and immunocompromised hosts. The availability of new antibiotics offers an opportunity for enhanced empiric treatment of the antibiotic-resistant bacterial pathogens associated with CAP.

Splenic volume in pneumococcal pneumonia patients is associated with disease severity and mortality

Splenectomy is a risk factor for serious pneumococcal disease like overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI). In healthy individuals with small spleen, fulminant pneumococcal infection similar to OPSI has been reported. Furthermore, it is reported that small spleen was associated with severe pneumococcal infection patients treated in an intensive care unit. However, the association between the small spleen and pneumococcal pneumonia was not investigated enough. We retrospectively analyzed patients with pneumococcal pneumonia who underwent computed tomography examination with measurement of the splenic volume at Harasanshin Hospital between 2004 and 2019. Data on their background characteristics, laboratory findings, and clinical courses were collected. 413 patients were included in the final analysis. The splenic volume was significantly lower in the moderate (P < 0.001), severe (P < 0.00005), and extremely severe (P < 0.001) pneumonia groups compared with the mild pneumonia group. Furthermore, the splenic volume was significantly lower in patients died within 30 days of pneumonia treatment (median of 73.49 versus 110.77 cm³, P < 0.005) or during hospitalization (median of 71.69 versus 111.01 cm³, P < 0.0005). Splenic volume <40 cm³ was significantly associated with mortality within 30 days and total hospital mortality as a risk factor in univariate analysis. Splenic volume <40 cm³ was an independent risk factor for mortality within 30 days (odds ratio: 5.0, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-21.1, P < 0.05) and total hospital mortality (odds ratio: 7.4, 95% confidence interval: 1.8-30.6, P < 0.01) in multivariate logistic regression analysis. These results suggest that small spleen is a risk factor for severity and mortality of pneumococcal pneumonia.

Is antipseudomonal antibiotic treatment needed for all nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia patients at risk for antimicrobial resistance?

OBJECTIVES

Nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP) was proposed by the Japanese Respiratory Society to refer to healthcare-associated pneumonia. This study aimed to investigate whether antipseudomonal antibiotic therapy improved the prognosis of NHCAP patients at high risk for antimicrobial-resistant pathogens.

METHODS

Consecutive hospitalised NHCAP patients in Kurashiki Central Hospital between October 2010 and December 2016 were prospectively enrolled. NHCAP patients who were at high risk for antimicrobial resistance were defined as those who received antimicrobials in the preceding 90 days and/or were on tube feeding. The patients who received antipseudomonal antibiotics were defined as the guideline-concordant (GC) therapy group, and the others were defined as the guideline-discordant (GD) therapy group. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was used to reduce biases.

RESULTS

There were 277 patients with NHCAP; a majority (78.0%) were discharged from a hospital in the preceding 90 days. There were 52 patients in the GC group and 225 patients in the GD group. The 30-day mortality rate was significantly higher in the GC group than in the GD group (17.3%, 9/52 vs. 7.1%, 16/225; P = 0.03). After IPTW analysis, the GC therapy, compared with GD therapy, did not improve the 30-day mortality (OR 1.71, 95% CI 0.65-4.47; P = 0.28).

CONCLUSIONS

Not all NHCAP patients, even those at high risk for antimicrobial resistance, need antipseudomonal antimicrobial treatment. The treatment strategy for NHCAP patients should be individualised, according to the pneumonia severity, risk for antimicrobial-resistant pathogens, and antibiogram in each hospital.

Prognostic factors in nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Nursing and healthcare-associated pneumonia (NHCAP) is a category of healthcare-associated pneumonia modified for the healthcare system in Japan. To date, only a few studies have examined the prognostic factors of NHCAP in a prospective cohort. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic factors related to 30-day mortality in patients with NHCAP by analyzing prospective data.

METHODS

We analyzed patients hospitalized for NHCAP who were enrolled between October 2010 and February 2017. Age, sex, comorbidities, vital signs and laboratory findings were used as prognostic variables. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Of 817 NHCAP patients identified, the mean age was 78.0 ± 11.1 years, 580 (71.0%) were men and 30-day mortality was 13.1% (107/817). On multivariate analysis, male sex (odds ratio [OR]: 2.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-3.63), malignancy (OR: 2.35, 95%CI: 1.38-4.01), performance status (PS) (OR: 1.55, 95%CI: 1.23-1.96), body temperature (OR: 0.77, 95%CI: 0.61-0.97), heart rate (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.01-1.03), respiratory rate (OR: 1.04, 95%CI: 1.01-1.08), serum albumin (Alb) (OR: 0.45, 95%CI: 0.30-0.66) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) (OR: 1.02, 95%CI: 1.01-1.03) were significantly related to 30-day mortality. On the other hand, the risk factors for involvement by drug-resistant pathogens predicted a better prognosis (OR: 0.39, 95%CI: 0.19-0.82).

CONCLUSIONS

Male sex, malignancy, poor PS, hypothermia, tachycardia, tachypnea, low serum Alb and high BUN are worse prognostic factors. Thus, the risk of drug-resistant pathogens is not necessarily related to poor prognosis.

Azithromycin combination therapy for community-acquired pneumonia: propensity score analysis

Whether macrolide combination therapy reduces the mortality of patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalized in the non-intensive care unit (ICU) remains unclear. Therefore, we investigated the efficacy of adding azithromycin to β-lactam antibiotics for such patients. This prospective cohort study enrolled consecutive patients with CAP hospitalized in the non-ICU between October 2010 and November 2016. The 30-day mortality between β-lactam and azithromycin combination therapy and β-lactam monotherapy was compared in patients classified as mild to moderate and severe according to the CURB-65, Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), and Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA)/American Thoracic Society (ATS) criteria. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) analysis was used to reduce biases. Based on the CURB-65 and PSI, combination therapy did not significantly reduce the 30-day mortality in either group (179 patients in the combination group, 952 in the monotherapy group). However, based on the IDSA/ATS criteria, combination therapy significantly reduced the 30-day mortality in patients with severe (odds ratio [OR] 0.12, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.007–0.57), but not non-severe pneumonia (OR 1.85, 95% CI 0.51–5.40); these results were similar after IPTW analysis. Azithromycin combination therapy significantly reduced the mortality of patients with severe CAP who met the IDSA/ATS criteria.

Predictive and prognostic roles of electrical cardiometry in noninvasive assessments of community-acquired pneumonia patients with dyspnoea

Background:

Thoracic impedance monitoring able to detect pneumonia in the very early phase of emerging infiltration prior the patient developed remarkable clinical symptoms. However, no studies have yet been conducted on the usefulness of predicting pneumonia patient outcomes with parameters from electrical cardiometry.

Objective:

In the present study, we evaluated whether parameters measured by electrical cardiometry can predict clinical outcomes including mortality and length of hospital stay in patients with community-acquired pneumonia in the emergency department.

Methods:

Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from enrolled patient. Electrical cardiometry monitoring was done with a portable electrical cardiometry device connected to the body surface sensor. The continuous data from electrical cardiometry were recorded, and parameters were stored on the electrical cardiometry device automatically and then the data were downloaded for further analysis.

Results:

Thoracic fluid content has shown to be significantly higher in the intensive care unit admission group and in the death group. Expired patients had higher value of thoracic fluid content at emergency department admission. From a receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, thoracic fluid content presented fair AUC values of 0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.74) and 0.73 (0.62–0.82) for prediction of 28-day mortality and intensive care unit admission. Arterial partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), the ratio of arterial partial pressure of oxygen to inspired oxygen fraction (PaO2/FiO2 ratio) also showed excellent AUC value for prediction of mortality and intensive care unit admission.

Conclusion:

Electrical cardiometry monitoring indicated new possibility to anticipate prognosis of community-acquired pneumonia patient. Increased thoracic fluid content value would relate worse outcome of the patient like mortality and intensive care unit admission. Electrical cardiometry monitoring allows real-time measurements of thoracic fluid content without restraining the patient or invasive catheters.

Clinical, epidemiological, and etiological profile of inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia in a public hospital in the interior of Brazil

Objective:

To describe the patient profile, mortality rates, the accuracy of prognostic scores, and mortality-associated factors in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in a general hospital in Brazil.

Methods:

This was a cohort study involving patients with a clinical and laboratory diagnosis of CAP and requiring admission to a public hospital in the interior of Brazil between March 2014 and April 2015. We performed multivariate analysis using a Poisson regression model with robust variance to identify factors associated with in-hospital mortality.

Results:

We included 304 patients. Approximately 70% of the patients were classified as severely ill on the basis of the severity criteria used. The mortality rate was 15.5%, and the ICU admission rate was 29.3%. After multivariate analysis, the factors associated with in-hospital mortality were need for mechanical ventilation (OR: 3.60; 95% CI: 1.85-7.47); a Charlson Comorbidity Index score > 3 (OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.18-1.43); and a mental

Confusion,

Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, and age > 65 years (CURB-65) score > 2 (OR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09-1.98). The mean time from patient arrival at the emergency room to initiation of antibiotic therapy was 10 h. Conclusions: The in-hospital mortality rate of 15.5% and the need for ICU admission in almost one third of the patients reflect the major impact of CAP on patients and the health care system. Individuals with a high burden of comorbidities, a high CURB-65 score, and a need for mechanical ventilation had a worse prognosis. Measures to reduce the time to initiation of antibiotic therapy may result in better outcomes in this group of patients.

Procalcitonin is not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality, albeit predicts pneumonia severity in patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital

Background

Procalcitonin (PCT) is a useful marker for pneumonia. However, its clinical usefulness in elderly patients has not been studied extensively. This study aimed to assess the relationship between PCT and prognosis and pneumonia severity in elderly patients with pneumonia acquired outside the hospital.

Methods

Data considered relevant to pneumonia severity and prognosis were retrospectively obtained from clinical charts of all patients with pneumonia who were admitted to our hospital from 2010 to 2017. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality in elderly patients (aged ≥75 years), and the relationship between PCT levels and pneumonia severity, as determined by the pneumonia severity index (PSI) was also examined.

Results

Data were collected from 667 patients, of which 436 were elderly patients. Multivariate and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that albumin, body mass index, and PSI class rather than PCT are important factors related to 30-day mortality in elderly patients. PCT was also not an independent prognostic factor in younger patients. PCT levels significantly differed by pneumonia severity (mild, moderate, and severe) in both younger (p < 0.001) and elderly (p < 0.0001) patients, with levels increasing as severity increased. In contrast, C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and white blood cell counts did not significantly differ by pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients. A subgroup analysis focused on Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia revealed that PCT levels differed by severity in elderly patients (p = 0.03), with levels increasing as severity increased.

Conclusion

PCT was not an independent predictor of 30-day mortality in both of elderly and younger patients. PCT levels, but not CRP levels, significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in younger and elderly patients, although the degree of increase tended to be lower in elderly patients compared to younger patients for the same severity. PCT levels also significantly increased with increasing pneumonia severity in elderly patients with Streptococcus pneumoniae pneumonia.

Clinical Presentations and Outcomes Related to Tuberculosis in Children Younger Than 2 Years of Age in Catalonia

Introduction: Children younger than 2 years have an increased risk of complications associated with tuberculosis (TB) due to the immaturity of the innate and adaptive immune response. We aimed to identify TB clinical presentations and outcomes as well as risk factors for complications in this age group. Materials and Methods: Multicenter, retrospective, cross-sectional study of TB cases in children aged <2 years in Catalonia (2005-2013). Epidemiological and clinical data were collected from the hospital medical records. TB complications, sequelae included, were defined as any tissue damage generating functional or anatomical impairment after being diagnosed or after TB treatment being completed. Statistical analyses were based on bivariate chi-square and multivariate logistic regression, and it was carried out with Stata® version 13.1. Odds ratios (OR) and its 95% confidence intervals were calculated (CI). Results: A total of 134 patients were included, 50.7% were male, the median [IQR] age was 13[8-18] months, and 18.7% (25/134) showed TB-associated complications. Pulmonary TB was diagnosed in 94.0% (126/134) of children, and the most common complications were lobar collapse (6/126). TB meningitis was diagnosed in 14/134 (10.4%), and hydrocephalus and mental impairment occurred in 1 and 2 patients, respectively. Two patients with spinal TB developed vertebral destruction and paraplegia, respectively. Only one of the patients died. At multivariate level, tachypnea (OR = 4.24; 95% CI 1.17-15.35) and meningeal (OR = 52.21; 95% CI 10.05-271.2) or combined/extrapulmonary forms (OR = 11.3; 95% CI 2.85-45.1) were associated with the development of TB complications. Discussion: TB complications are common in children under 2 years old. Extrapulmonary TB forms in this pediatric age remain a challenge and require prompt diagnosis and treatment in order to prevent them. The presence of tachypnea at the time of TB diagnosis is an independent associated factor to the development of TB complications in infants. This clinical sign should be closely monitored in patients in this age group. It is necessary to perform further studies in this age group in a prospective design in order to understand whether there are other factors associated to TB complications.

Expanded A-DROP Score: A New Scoring System for the Prediction of Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Community-acquired Pneumonia

There are several established prognostic scoring systems for community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). The Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) is a prediction rule consisting of 20 variables to identify low-risk patients with CAP. Although PSI had high discrimination ability, it is complex to calculate and difficult to use in busy hospital settings. The CURB-65 score is much simpler to use than is PSI, but it has lower sensitivity for predicting mortality compared with PSI. The A-DROP score is a modified version of the CURB-65 score and provides similar predictive power to that of CURB-65. This study was performed to determine whether a simpler score (CURB-65, A-DROP), expanded with a small number of additional variables, can predict mortality more accurately than PSI. We conducted a retrospective observational study of 1,031 patients with CAP who were hospitalized at a tertiary teaching hospital. We used age, sex, comorbidities, vital signs, and laboratory findings as prognostic variables. We compared the PSI, CURB-65, and A-DROP scores using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. The areas under the curves (AUCs) of PSI, CURB-65, and A-DROP were 0.735, 0.701, and 0.730, respectively.Multivariable analysis identified malignancy [odds ratio (OR): 2.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.13–4.17], respiration rate ≥ 24/min [OR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.24–3.82], heart rate ≥ 100/min [OR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.68–5.08], albumin ≤ 3.09 g/dL [OR: 3.85, 95% CI: 2.09–7.07], lactate > 1.7 mmol/L [OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.53–4.38], and N-terminal prohormone brain natriuretic peptide > 500 pg/mL [OR: 2.23, 95% CI: 1.26–3.95] as prognostic factors. Using the prognostic variables identified in the multivariable analysis, we assembled a new scoring system, the expanded A-DROP score. The AUC of this score for the prediction of 28-day mortality was 0.834 (95% CI: 0.794–0.874). Bootstrap validation yielded an estimated AUC of 0.833, indicating negligible overfitting of the model.The expanded A-DROP score is a relatively simple and effective scoring system, and its predictive value was superior to those of other scoring systems.

Vasopressin V1a receptors are present in the carotid body and contribute to the control of breathing in male Sprague-Dawley rats

Vasopressin (AVP) maintains body homeostasis by regulating water balance, cardiovascular system and stress response. AVP inhibits breathing through central vasopressin 1a receptors (V1aRs). Chemoreceptors within carotid bodies (CBs) detect chemical and hormonal signals in the bloodstream and provide sensory input to respiratory and cardiovascular centers of the brainstem. In the study we investigated if CBs contain V1aRs and how the receptors are involved in the regulation of ventilation by AVP. We first immunostained CBs for V1aRs and tyrosine hydroxylase, a marker of chemoreceptor type I (glomus) cells. In urethane-anesthetized adult Sprague-Dawley male rats, we then measured hemodynamic and respiratory responses to systemic (intravenous) or local (carotid artery) administration of AVP prior and after systemic blockade of V1aRs. Immunostaining of CBs showed colocalization of V1aRs and tyrosine hydroxylase within glomus cells. Systemic administration of AVP increased mean arterial blood pressure (MABP) and decreased respiratory rate (RR) and minute ventilation (MV). Local administration of AVP increased MV and RR without significant changes in MABP or heart rate. Pretreatment with V1aR antagonist abolished responses to local and intravenous AVP administration. Our findings show that chemosensory cells within CBs express V1aRs and that local stimulation of the CB with AVP increases ventilation, which is contrary to systemic effects of AVP manifested by decreased ventilation. The responses are mediated by V1aRs, as blockade of the receptors prevents changes in ventilation. We hypothesize that excitatory effects of AVP within the CB provide a counterbalancing mechanism for the inhibitory effects of systemically acting AVP on the respiration.

Impact of COPD on outcomes in hospitalized patients with community-acquired pneumonia: Analysis of the Spanish national hospital discharge database (2004-2013)

AIM

To examine trends in incidence and outcomes of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) hospitalizations among patients with or without COPD in Spain (2004-2013).

METHODS

We used national hospital discharge data to select all hospital admissions for CAP. Incidence was calculated overall and according to the presence or absence of COPD.

RESULTS

We identified 901,136 hospital admissions for CAP (32.25% with COPD). Incidence of hospitalizations of CAP increased significantly over time among patients with and without COPD, but it was higher among people with COPD for all years analyzed. S. pneumoniae decreased over time for both groups. Time trend analyses showed significant decreases in mortality during admission for CAP for patients with and without COPD. Factor independently associated with higher mortality in both groups included: male sex, older age, higher comorbidity, isolation of S. aureus or P. aeruginosa, use of mechanical ventilation, and readmission. The presence of COPD was associated with a lower in-hospital mortality (IHM) (OR: 0.58, 95%CI 0.57-0.59).

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of hospitalizations for CAP increased over time in patients with and without COPD, being higher in the COPD population for all years analyzed. IHM decreased over time in both groups. There were no differences in mortality between COPD and non-COPD patients.