Time trend of global uterine cancer burden: an age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period

Burden of uterine cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and 15-year projection: a systematic analysis and comparison with global levels

OBJECTIVE

Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels.

METHODS

Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored.

RESULTS

In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally.

CONCLUSION

The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC.

Trends in incidence and mortality for gynaecological cancers in Southeastern China during 2011-2020: a retrospective analysis of registry data

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to investigate the changes in the incidence and mortality trends of ovarian cancer (OC), cervical cancer (CC) and uterine cancer (UC) in the Fujian Province, southeastern China.

DESIGN

Provincial, population-based, retrospective observational study.

SETTING

Fujian province, southeastern China between 2011-2020.

PARTICIPANTS

From 2011 to 2020, 6178 new cases and 2037 deaths caused by 3 gynaecological cancers were eligible for analysis.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures were the incidence and mortality rates, including the age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), of three gynaecological cancers. The secondary outcome measure was the prevalence (average annual per cent changes (AAPC)).

RESULTS

The incidence of all three gynaecological cancers increased from 2011 to 2020. CC had the slowest upward trend, with an AAPC of 2.54% over the period. However, it had the highest ASIR among the 3 cancers in 2020 (10.41/100 000). UC showed a rapid increase, with an AAPC of 15.15% from 2016 to 2020. While the mortality rate of UC remained stable, both CC and OC also exhibited rising trends, with the CC having the highest ASMR (3.05/100 000) in 2020. The ASMR for CC increased rapidly, with the highest AAPC of 5.51%. Conversely, changes in the ASMR for UC were not statistically significant (p=0.601). Moreover, high incidence rates were more common among perimenopausal women and older participants in the respective cancer groups where the increased mortality was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Gynaecological cancer burden remains a public health issue in Fujian Province, with an increasing incidence. Improving the healthcare system and promoting a healthy lifestyle should be highlighted to reduce the cancer burden.

Trends in uterine cancer incidence in the United States: The contribution of age, period and cohort effects

OBJECTIVE

In the U.S., uterine cancer incidence is rising, with racial and ethnic minorities experiencing the largest increases. We performed age-period-cohort analyses using novel methods to examine the contribution of age at diagnosis (age), year of diagnosis (period), and birth cohort (cohort), to trends in uterine cancer incidence.

METHODS

We used uterine cancer incidence data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) 12 database (1992-2019), and performed hysterectomy-correction. We generated hexamaps to visualize age, period, and cohort effects, and used mutual information to estimate the percent contribution of age, period, and cohort effects, individually and combined, on uterine cancer incidence, overall and by race and ethnicity and histology.

RESULTS

Hexamaps showed an increase in uterine cancer in later time periods, and a cohort effect around 1933 showing a lower incidence compared with earlier and later cohorts. Age, period, and cohort effects combined contributed 86.6% (95% CI: 86.4%, 86.9%) to the incidence. Age effects had the greatest contribution (65.1%, 95% CI: 64.3%, 65.9), followed by cohort (20.7%, 95% CI: 20.1%, 21.3%) and period (14.2%, 95% CI: 13.7%, 14.8%) effects. Hexamaps showed higher incidence in recent years for non-Hispanic Blacks and non-endometrioid tumors.

CONCLUSIONS

Age effects had the largest contribution to uterine cancer incidence, followed by cohort and period effects overall and across racial and ethnic groups and histologies.

IMPACT

These findings can inform uterine cancer modeling studies on the effects of interventions that target risk factors which may vary across age, period, or cohort.

Utility of immunocytochemistry in diagnosing abdominopelvic washings from patients undergoing radical surgery for endometrial cancer

Objective

This study aimed to explore the efficacy of immunocytochemistry in diagnosing abdominopelvic washings (APWs) and evaluate the superiority of cytology combined with immunocytochemistry over cytology alone.

Material and Methods

Data on APW cytology and available cell blocks from patients who underwent radical surgery for endometrial cancer between January 2021 and December 2022 were reviewed. Cytology was re-evaluated according to a five-tier system. Immunocytochemistry analysis for targets such as Sry box transcription factor 1(SOX17), Paired box gene 2 (Pax-2) protein, Phosphatase and tensin (PTEN), and β-catenin was performed on each case with non-negative cytology. Mismatch repair (MMR) protein and P53 immunocytochemistry analyses were performed using cell blocks from cases with abnormal MMR or P53 expression in their primary lesion. The accuracies of cytology combined with immunocytochemistry and cytology alone were calculated.

Results

Overall, 126 patients were included in this study, 18 of whom demonstrated non-negative cytology of APW. Cell blocks were successfully prepared for 16 cases. SOX17 positivity was observed in 16 cases, including 1 of serous carcinoma, 1 of clear cell carcinoma, and 14 of endometrioid carcinoma (EC). Loss of Pax-2 and PTEN expression was observed in the APWs of the 14 patients with EC. MMR deficiency was noted in two patients with EC, and P53 mutation was noted in another two patients with EC. Compared with 10 metastatic carcinomas (10/18, 55.56%) diagnosed by cytology alone, 15 malignant APWs (15/18, 83.33%) were confirmed through combination cytology and immunocytochemistry. APWs were more likely to be observed in cases with more than half myometrial invasion than those with no or less than half myometrial invasion (P = 0.0067). The probability of malignant APW occurrence was slightly elevated in cases of EC exhibiting microcystic, elongated, and fragmented(MELF) infiltrative growth (P = 0.039).

Conclusion

SOX17 is a useful Müllerian marker for distinguishing endometrial epithelium in APW. Loss of Pax-2 and PTEN expression offers evidence of metastatic endometrial carcinoma. Furthermore, positive APWs retained molecular features similar to primary lesions. The use of multiple immunocytochemical markers can effectively enhance the diagnostic efficiency of APWs.

circRNAs in Endometrial Cancer-A Promising Biomarker: State of the Art

Endometrial cancer (EC) is one of the most common malignant tumors among women in the 21st century, whose mortality rate is increasing every year. Currently, the diagnosis of EC is possible only after a biopsy. However, it is necessary to find a new biomarker that will help in both the diagnosis and treatment of EC in a non-invasive way. Circular RNAs (circRNAs) are small, covalently closed spherical and stable long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) molecules, which are abundant in both body fluids and human tissues and are expressed in various ways. Considering the new molecular classification of EC, many studies have appeared, describing new insights into the functions and mechanisms of circRNAs in EC. In this review article, we focused on the problem of EC and the molecular aspects of its division, as well as the biogenesis, functions, and diagnostic and clinical significance of circRNAs in EC.

Assessment of secular trends of three major gynecologic cancers burden and attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: an age period cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

This study aims to assess the long-term trends in the burden of three major gynecologic cancers(GCs) stratified by social-demographic status across the world from 1990 to 2019. To assess the trends of risk factor attributed mortality, and to examine the specific effects of age, period, cohort behind them in different regions.

METHODS

We extracted data on the mortality, disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), and age-standardized rates(ASRs) of cervical cancer(CC), uterine cancer(UC), and ovarian cancer(OC) related to risks from 1990 to 2019, as GCs burden measures. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to analyze trends in attributable mortality rates.

RESULTS

The number of deaths and DALYs for CC, UC and OC increased since 1990 worldwide, while the ASDRs decreased. Regionally, the ASDR of CC was the highest in low SDI region at 15.05(11.92, 18.46) per 100,000 in 2019, while the ASDRs of UC and OC were highest in high SDI region at 2.52(2.32,2.64), and 5.67(5.16,6.09). The risk of CC death caused by unsafe sex increased with age and then gradually stabilized, with regional differences. The period effect of CC death attributed to smoking showed a downward trend. The cohort effect of UC death attributed to high BMI decreased in each region, especially in the early period in middle, low-middle and low SDI areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Global secular trends of attributed mortality for the three GCs and their age, period, and cohort effects may reflect the diagnosis and treatment progress, rapid socioeconomic transitions, concomitant changes in lifestyle and behavioral patterns in different developing regions. Prevention and controllable measures should be carried out according to the epidemic status in different countries, raising awareness of risk factors to reduce future burden.

Incidence, risk factors, and a prognostic nomogram for distant metastasis in endometrial cancer: A SEER-based study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the metastatic pattern, identify the risk factors, and establish a nomogram for predicting prognosis of endometrial cancer (EC) with distant metastasis.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of women diagnosed with EC was conducted according to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2010-2017. Multivariate logistic analysis and Cox analysis were performed to identify the risk factors in promoting distant metastasis and predictors associated with overall survival (OS) in this particular subpopulation. A nomogram was then constructed and validated by the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 2799 cases of distant metastasis in EC patients were identified, with an overall incidence rate of 3.74% from 2010 to 2017. Black race, unmarried status, non-endometrioid histologic types, and grade IV were significant risk factors for distant metastasis in EC patients. Meanwhile, race, histology, grade, metastasis status, surgery, lymphadenectomy, and chemotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS. A nomogram to predict 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS was established, and presented favorable accuracy and clinical applicability. Patients were further divided into high- and low-risk groups according to the model.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was developed as a highly accurate, individualized tool to better predict the prognosis of EC patients with distant metastasis, which would help clinicians to identify high-risk patients, and adjust and tailor their treatment strategies.

Analysis of East Asia subgroup in Study 309/KEYNOTE-775: lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus treatment of physician's choice chemotherapy in patients with previously treated advanced or recurrent endometrial cancer

OBJECTIVE

In the global phase 3 Study 309/KEYNOTE-775 (NCT03517449) at the first interim analysis, lenvatinib+pembrolizumab significantly improved progression-free survival (PFS), overall survival (OS), and objective response rate (ORR) versus treatment of physician's choice chemotherapy (TPC) in patients with previously treated advanced/recurrent endometrial cancer (EC). This exploratory analysis evaluated outcomes in patients enrolled in East Asia at the time of prespecified final analysis.

METHODS

Women ≥18 years with histologically confirmed advanced, recurrent, or metastatic EC with progressive disease after 1 platinum-based chemotherapy (2 if 1 given in neoadjuvant/adjuvant setting) were enrolled. Patients were randomized 1:1 to lenvatinib 20 mg orally once daily plus pembrolizumab 200 mg intravenously every 3 weeks (≤35 cycles) or TPC (doxorubicin or paclitaxel). Primary endpoints were PFS per RECIST v1.1 by blinded independent central review and OS. No alpha was assigned for this subgroup analysis.

RESULTS

Among 155 East Asian patients (lenvatinib+pembrolizumab, n=77; TPC, n=78), median follow-up time (data cutoff: March 1, 2022) was 34.3 (range, 25.1-43.0) months. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for PFS (lenvatinib+pembrolizumab vs. TPC) were 0.74 (0.49-1.10) and 0.64 (0.44-0.94) in the mismatch repair proficient (pMMR) and all-comer populations, respectively. HRs (95% CI) for OS were 0.68 (0.45-1.02) and 0.61 (0.41-0.90), respectively. ORRs were 36% with lenvatinib+pembrolizumab and 22% with TPC (pMMR) and 39% and 21%, respectively (all-comers). Treatment-related adverse events occurred in 97% and 96% (grade 3-5, 74% and 72%), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Lenvatinib+pembrolizumab provided clinically meaningful benefit with manageable safety compared with TPC, supporting its use in East Asian patients with previously treated advanced/recurrent EC.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03517449.

Analyzing Cancer Incidence Trends in Oman From 1996 to 2019: A Comprehensive Study of the National Cancer Annual Reports

PURPOSE

Previous studies have reported that cancer incidence trends in Oman varied by tumor site and sex. No comprehensive analysis of all cancer sites had been reported. The objective of this study is to analyze cancer incidence trends in Oman and calculate the annual percent change (APC) in age-standardized rates (ASRs) for all-cancer and 61 individual cancer sites in Omani men and women from 1996 to 2019.

METHODS

We gathered incidence data from The Omani National Cancer Registry for all cancers combined and individual tumor sites. We estimated the APC using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

The cancer ASR in the Omani population increased by 23% (from 95/100,000 in 1996 to 117.2/100,000 in 2019), with the increase being more pronounced in females (48% v 7% in males). Among the male population, there was significant increase in the ASRs of colon, rectum, thyroid, and prostate cancers, with APCs of 6.92%, 4.24%, 4.19%, and 2.03%, respectively. Among females, all-cancer incidence showed significant increase (APC = 1.39%), and increasing trends were observed in uterine, colon, rectum, thyroid, and breast cancers (APCs = 7.57%, 7.08%, 5.19%, 5.16%, and 4.19%, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The ASR of all-cancer increased significantly in Omani women but not in men. Uterine cancer had the highest APC. Colorectal cancer and thyroid ASR increased in both males and females. Breast and prostate cancers showed increasing trends. Further research is needed to explore factors contributing to increasing cancer incidences.