Predicting outcome from dengue

Insights into the structure, functional perspective, and pathogenesis of ZIKV: an updated review

Zika virus (ZIKV) poses a serious threat to the entire world. The rapid spread of ZIKV and recent outbreaks since 2007 have caused worldwide concern about the virus. Diagnosis is complicated because of the cross-reactivity of the virus with other viral antibodies. Currently, the virus is diagnosed by molecular techniques such as RT-PCR and IgM-linked enzyme immunoassays (MAC-ELISA). Recently, outbreaks and epidemics have been caused by ZIKV, and severe clinical symptoms and congenital malformations have also been associated with the virus. Although most ZIKV infections present with a subclinical or moderate flu-like course of illness, severe symptoms such as Guillain-Barre syndrome in adults and microcephaly in children of infected mothers have also been reported. Because there is no reliable cure for ZIKV and no vaccine is available, the public health response has focused primarily on preventing infection, particularly in pregnant women. A comprehensive approach is urgently needed to combat this infection and stop its spread and imminent threat. In view of this, this review aims to present the current structural and functional viewpoints, structure, etiology, clinical prognosis, and measures to prevent this transmission based on the literature and current knowledge. Moreover, we provide thorough description of the current understanding about ZIKV interaction with receptors, and a comparative examination of its similarities and differences with other viruses.

Learning meaningful latent space representations for patient risk stratification: Model development and validation for dengue and other acute febrile illness

Background

Increased data availability has prompted the creation of clinical decision support systems. These systems utilise clinical information to enhance health care provision, both to predict the likelihood of specific clinical outcomes or evaluate the risk of further complications. However, their adoption remains low due to concerns regarding the quality of recommendations, and a lack of clarity on how results are best obtained and presented.

Methods

We used autoencoders capable of reducing the dimensionality of complex datasets in order to produce a 2D representation denoted as latent space to support understanding of complex clinical data. In this output, meaningful representations of individual patient profiles are spatially mapped in an unsupervised manner according to their input clinical parameters. This technique was then applied to a large real-world clinical dataset of over 12,000 patients with an illness compatible with dengue infection in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam between 1999 and 2021. Dengue is a systemic viral disease which exerts significant health and economic burden worldwide, and up to 5% of hospitalised patients develop life-threatening complications.

Results

The latent space produced by the selected autoencoder aligns with established clinical characteristics exhibited by patients with dengue infection, as well as features of disease progression. Similar clinical phenotypes are represented close to each other in the latent space and clustered according to outcomes broadly described by the World Health Organisation dengue guidelines. Balancing distance metrics and density metrics produced results covering most of the latent space, and improved visualisation whilst preserving utility, with similar patients grouped closer together. In this case, this balance is achieved by using the sigmoid activation function and one hidden layer with three neurons, in addition to the latent dimension layer, which produces the output (Pearson, 0.840; Spearman, 0.830; Procrustes, 0.301; GMM 0.321).

Conclusion

This study demonstrates that when adequately configured, autoencoders can produce two-dimensional representations of a complex dataset that conserve the distance relationship between points. The output visualisation groups patients with clinically relevant features closely together and inherently supports user interpretability. Work is underway to incorporate these findings into an electronic clinical decision support system to guide individual patient management.

Homogeneous ensemble models for predicting infection levels and mortality of COVID-19 patients: Evidence from China

Background

Persistence of long-term COVID-19 pandemic is putting high pressure on healthcare services worldwide for several years. This article aims to establish models to predict infection levels and mortality of COVID-19 patients in China.

Methods

Machine learning models and deep learning models have been built based on the clinical features of COVID-19 patients. The best models are selected by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores to construct two homogeneous ensemble models for predicting infection levels and mortality, respectively. The first-hand clinical data of 760 patients are collected from Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University between 3 January and 8 March 2020. We preprocess data with cleaning, imputation, and normalization.

Results

Our models obtain AUC = 0.7059 and Recall (Weighted avg) = 0.7248 in predicting infection level, while AUC=0.8436 and Recall (Weighted avg) = 0.8486 in predicting mortality ratio. This study also identifies two sets of essential clinical features. One is C-reactive protein (CRP) or high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) and the other is chest tightness, age, and pleural effusion.

Conclusions

Two homogeneous ensemble models are proposed to predict infection levels and mortality of COVID-19 patients in China. New findings of clinical features for benefiting the machine learning models are reported. The evaluation of an actual dataset collected from January 3 to March 8, 2020 demonstrates the effectiveness of the models by comparing them with state-of-the-art models in prediction.

Discovery and validation of circulating miRNAs for the clinical prognosis of severe dengue

Background

Early prognostic markers of severe dengue may improve case management and reduce dengue-related mortalities. This study aimed to identify circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) as biomarkers for predicting severe dengue.

Methodology

Serum samples from dengue-infected patients were collected on the first day of admission. Patients were followed up for 14 days after admission to determine the final diagnosis. Participants were divided into non-severe and severe dengue, as defined by WHO 2009 criteria. Circulating microtranscriptome analysis was performed using NanoString miRNA Expression Assay. The expression level of candidate miRNAs were then validated by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR method.

Principal findings

The discovery cohort (N = 19) lead to the identification of 37 differentially expressed miRNAs between the two groups. Six up-regulated candidate miRNAs were selected and further validated in the larger cohort (N = 135). MiR574-5p and miR1246 displayed the highest diagnostic performance in discriminating between severe from non-severe dengue (ROC-AUC = 0.83). Additionally, miR574-5p and miR1246 had high sensitivity and high negative predictive value for detecting severe dengue. Multivariate analysis suggested that serum miR574-5p was an independent predictor of severe dengue (odds ratio 3.30, 95% CI 1.81–6.04; p<0.001).

Conclusion

Our study indicated that circulating miRNAs, especially miR-574-5p and miR-1246, might be a promising diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for severe dengue upon hospital admission, especially when using these biomarkers on days 1 to 2 before the onset of severe dengue complications.

Dengue infection, a mosquito-borne disease, is an expanding global problem. It has a broad clinical spectrum that includes severe and non-severe clinical manifestations with a high risk of death. Identifying early prognostic markers of severe complications may improve case management and reduce dengue-related mortalities. The circulating microRNA (miRNA) profile has been widely used to identify potential biomarkers against viral infections. Our data revealed that the circulating miRNA expression pattern of severe dengue patients was significantly different from the non-severe group. In addition, circulating miRNAs, especially miR-574-5p and miR-1246, could be promising diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for severe dengue. These data have implications for developing biomarkers for clinical use and could improve risk prediction in dengue patients.

Dengue algorithms integrated into the IMCI guidelines: An updated assessment in five Southeast-Asian countries

Background

Dengue is not included explicitly in the WHO Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) algorithm. However, the assessment, classification and management of dengue has been incorporated into several IMCI country adaptations. We aimed to evaluate the dengue algorithms incorporated into IMCI guidelines and discuss the need for harmonization, including an extension of the age range for IMCI.

Methods

This study included three steps. First, we investigated dengue algorithms incorporated into five Southeast-Asian (Myanmar, Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Cambodia) country IMCI guidelines through a desk-based analysis. Second, we conducted an expert survey to elicit opinions regarding the integration of dengue and extension of the age range in IMCI. Third, we compared our findings with data from a large multicentric prospective study on acute febrile illness.

Results

We found considerable heterogeneity between the country specific IMCI guidelines in the dengue algorithms as well as classification schemes. Most guidelines did not differentiate between diagnostic algorithms for the detection of dengue versus other febrile illness, and warning signs for progression to severe dengue. Our expert survey resulted in a consensus to further integrate dengue in IMCI and extend the age range for IMCI guidelines beyond 5 years of age. Most of the interviewees responded that their country had a stand-alone clinical guideline for dengue, which was not integrated into the IMCI approach and considered laboratory testing for dengue necessary on day three of consecutive fever. Using data from a large multicentric study of children 5–15 years of age, we could confirm that the likelihood of dengue increased with consecutive fever days. However, a significant proportion of children (36%) would be missed if laboratory testing was only offered on the third consecutive day of fever.

Conclusions

This study supports the extension of the IMCI age range beyond 5 years of age as well as the inclusion of dengue relevant content in the algorithm. Because of the challenge of distinguishing dengue from other febrile illnesses, simple laboratory testing (e.g., full blood count) should be offered at an early stage during the course of the illness. Testing only children with consecutive fever over 3 days may lead to an underdiagnosis of dengue among those with acute febrile illness in children 5–15 years of age. In addition, specific laboratory testing for dengue should be made available to peripheral health facilities.

The Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) was developed for the identification and treatment of major childhood illnesses based on a syndromic approach that can be applied by local health care workers in rural health facilities. Dengue represents an important differential diagnosis for children and adolescents with acute febrile illness in Southeast Asia but is not officially included in the fever module of IMCI. Local adaptations in different countries, however, have integrated dengue into their guidelines. We analysed the available local IMCI guidelines in Southeast Asia, conducted an expert survey, and investigated out findings using data from a large multicentric prospective study on acute febrile illness. Our findings support the extension of the age range for IMCI and the inclusion of dengue relevant content. When children presented with fever, the likelihood of dengue increased with consecutive fever days. We were able to quantify how likely dengue is as a cause of fever in children living in endemic areas, stratified by duration of fever. This evidence is useful for policy makers to consider the effect of more specific diagnostic tools for the monitoring of early dengue.

A clinical decision-support system for dengue based on fuzzy cognitive maps

Dengue is a viral infection widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Dengue is characterized by high fatality rates when the diagnosis is not made promptly and effectively. To aid in the diagnosis of dengue, we propose a clinical decision-support system that classifies the clinical picture based on its severity, and using causal relationships evaluates the behavior of the clinical and laboratory variables that describe the signs and symptoms related to dengue. The system is based on a fuzzy cognitive map that is defined by the signs, symptoms and laboratory tests used in the conventional diagnosis of dengue. The evaluation of the model was performed on datasets of patients diagnosed with dengue to compare the model with other approaches. The developed model showed a good classification performance with 89.4% accuracy and could evaluate the behaviour of clinical and laboratory variables related to dengue severity (it is an explainable method). This model serves as a diagnostic aid for dengue that can be used by medical professionals in clinical settings.

Dengue Infection - Recent Advances in Disease Pathogenesis in the Era of COVID-19

The dynamics of host-virus interactions, and impairment of the host’s immune surveillance by dengue virus (DENV) serotypes largely remain ambiguous. Several experimental and preclinical studies have demonstrated how the virus brings about severe disease by activating immune cells and other key elements of the inflammatory cascade. Plasmablasts are activated during primary and secondary infections, and play a determinative role in severe dengue. The cross-reactivity of DENV immune responses with other flaviviruses can have implications both for cross-protection and severity of disease. The consequences of a cross-reactivity between DENV and anti-SARS-CoV-2 responses are highly relevant in endemic areas. Here, we review the latest progress in the understanding of dengue immunopathogenesis and provide suggestions to the development of target strategies against dengue.

Prevalence and Outcomes of Myocarditis in Dengue-Infected Patients Admitted to a Tertiary Care Hospital of Low-Middle Income Country

Background:

Myocarditis is a challenging diagnosis due to the heterogeneity of clinical presentations. Myocarditis can present with a mildly raised cardiac enzyme to severe myocarditis leading to congestive heart failure, arrhythmias, cardiogenic shock, and death. It is a predictor of morbidity and mortality in dengue-infected patients. The exact prevalence of dengue myocarditis and its outcomes are unknown in Pakistan.

Objectives:

We aim to study the prevalence and association of myocarditis with the length of stay in the hospital and mortality of dengue-infected patients.

Methods:

A retrospective observational study done at a tertiary care hospital. We reviewed hospital record files of 1008 consecutive patients with dengue viral infection admitted from November 2018 to November 2019.

Results:

Out of 1008 dengue-infected patients, 55.4% of patients were older than 35 years and 68.4% were males. Hypertension (HTN) was the most common comorbid condition. The prevalence of myocarditis in hospitalized dengue-infected patients was 4.2%. All (100%) of dengue myocarditis patients had raised cardiac troponin I (cTn-I), 59.5% of patients had at least one electrocardiography (ECG) change, and 24% had reduced ejection fraction (EF) (defined as EF < 55%). On multivariable analysis, patients with raised cTn-I levels (adjusted odds ratios = 5.29; [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.16–12.96]) and abnormal echocardiography (ECHO) [aOR = 4.38; 95% CI: 1.26–15.27)] had a prolonged hospital stay (>3 days). Raised cTn-I levels (aOR = 8.2; [95% CI: 1.83–36.84]) was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality.

Conclusions:

Raised cTn-I is the predictor of length of stay and in-hospital mortality in dengue-infected patients. Atrial fibrillation, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, low serum bicarbonate, high serum creatinine, and any abnormality on echocardiography were associated with adverse outcomes in dengue-infected patients.

Predictive markers for the early prognosis of dengue severity: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Predictive markers represent a solution for the proactive management of severe dengue. Despite the low mortality rate resulting from severe cases, dengue requires constant examination and round-the-clock nursing care due to the unpredictable progression of complications, posing a burden on clinical triage and material resources. Accordingly, identifying markers that allow for predicting disease prognosis from the initial diagnosis is needed. Given the improved pathogenesis understanding, myriad candidates have been proposed to be associated with severe dengue progression. Thus, we aim to review the relationship between the available biomarkers and severe dengue.

METHODOLOGY

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the differences in host data collected within 72 hours of fever onset amongst the different disease severity levels. We searched nine bibliographic databases without restrictive criteria of language and publication date. We assessed risk of bias and graded robustness of evidence using NHLBI quality assessments and GRADE, respectively. This study protocol is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42018104495).

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Of 4000 records found, 40 studies for qualitative synthesis, 19 for meta-analysis. We identified 108 host and viral markers collected within 72 hours of fever onset from 6160 laboratory-confirmed dengue cases, including hematopoietic parameters, biochemical substances, clinical symptoms, immune mediators, viral particles, and host genes. Overall, inconsistent case classifications explained substantial heterogeneity, and meta-analyses lacked statistical power. Still, moderate-certainty evidence indicated significantly lower platelet counts (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -0.97 to -0.32) and higher AST levels (SMD 0.87, 95% CI 0.36 to 1.38) in severe cases when compared to non-severe dengue during this time window.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggest that alterations of platelet count and AST level-in the first 72 hours of fever onset-are independent markers predicting the development of severe dengue.

Cytokines storm in COVID-19 with dengue co-infection in pregnancy: Fatal maternal and fetal outcome

We report a 23-year-old pregnant woman who presented with acute high-grade fever, vomiting, and diarrhea for 5 days. She was first hospitalized in RSUD Tangerang-a secondary hospital based in Tangerang and were referred to Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital as a tertiary hospital. Initial laboratory results from previous hospital revealed leukopenia, low platelet, elevated aspartate transaminase, and alanine transaminase. Chest radiograph showed no pulmonary infiltration. Reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR) of the nasopharyngeal swab detected SARS-CoV-2, and NS1 antigen or IgM dengue-specific antibodies were positive. COVID-19 with dengue fever co-infection was diagnosed. Hemorrhagic manifestations were seen in both the mother (gum and gastrointestinal bleeding) and pregnancy (placental abruption). Patient was put on ventilator and was unfortunately lead to her death that were caused by multiorgan dysfunction failure due to co-infection of dengue and COVID-19. Both dengue and COVID-19 had similar manifestation, as it is a warning sign in pregnant patient experienced both that can lead to fatal result in mother and baby. Early diagnosis and management of co-infection is high clinical importance, especially in endemic area of dengue like Indonesia.

Risk predictors of progression to severe disease during the febrile phase of dengue: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The ability to accurately predict early progression of dengue to severe disease is crucial for patient triage and clinical management. Previous systematic reviews and meta-analyses have found significant heterogeneity in predictors of severe disease due to large variation in these factors during the time course of the illness. We aimed to identify factors associated with progression to severe dengue disease that are detectable specifically in the febrile phase.

METHODS

We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify predictors identifiable during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease defined according to WHO criteria. Eight medical databases were searched for studies published from Jan 1, 1997, to Jan 31, 2020. Original clinical studies in English assessing the association of factors detected during the febrile phase with progression to severe dengue were selected and assessed by three reviewers, with discrepancies resolved by consensus. Meta-analyses were done using random-effects models to estimate pooled effect sizes. Only predictors reported in at least four studies were included in the meta-analyses. Heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistics, and publication bias was assessed by Egger's test. We did subgroup analyses of studies with children and adults. The study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42018093363.

FINDINGS

Of 6643 studies identified, 150 articles were included in the systematic review, and 122 articles comprising 25 potential predictors were included in the meta-analyses. Female patients had a higher risk of severe dengue than male patients in the main analysis (2674 [16·2%] of 16 481 vs 3052 [10·5%] of 29 142; odds ratio [OR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·01-1·26) but not in the subgroup analysis of studies with children. Pre-existing comorbidities associated with severe disease were diabetes (135 [31·3%] of 431 with vs 868 [16·0%] of 5421 without; crude OR 4·38 [2·58-7·43]), hypertension (240 [35·0%] of 685 vs 763 [20·6%] of 3695; 2·19 [1·36-3·53]), renal disease (44 [45·8%] of 96 vs 271 [16·0%] of 1690; 4·67 [2·21-9·88]), and cardiovascular disease (nine [23·1%] of 39 vs 155 [8·6%] of 1793; 2·79 [1·04-7·50]). Clinical features during the febrile phase associated with progression to severe disease were vomiting (329 [13·5%] of 2432 with vs 258 [6·8%] of 3797 without; 2·25 [1·87-2·71]), abdominal pain and tenderness (321 [17·7%] of 1814 vs 435 [8·1%] of 5357; 1·92 [1·35-2·74]), spontaneous or mucosal bleeding (147 [17·9%] of 822 vs 676 [10·8%] of 6235; 1·57 [1·13-2·19]), and the presence of clinical fluid accumulation (40 [42·1%] of 95 vs 212 [14·9%] of 1425; 4·61 [2·29-9·26]). During the first 4 days of illness, platelet count was lower (standardised mean difference -0·34 [95% CI -0·54 to -0·15]), serum albumin was lower (-0·5 [-0·86 to -0·15]), and aminotransferase concentrations were higher (aspartate aminotransferase [AST] 1·06 [0·54 to 1·57] and alanine aminotransferase [ALT] 0·73 [0·36 to 1·09]) among individuals who progressed to severe disease. Dengue virus serotype 2 was associated with severe disease in children. Secondary infections (vs primary infections) were also associated with severe disease (1682 [11·8%] of 14 252 with vs 507 [5·2%] of 9660 without; OR 2·26 [95% CI 1·65-3·09]). Although the included studies had a moderate to high risk of bias in terms of study confounding, the risk of bias was low to moderate in other domains. Heterogeneity of the pooled results varied from low to high on different factors.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis supports monitoring of the warning signs described in the 2009 WHO guidelines on dengue. In addition, testing for infecting serotype and monitoring platelet count and serum albumin, AST, and ALT concentrations during the febrile phase of illness could improve the early prediction of severe dengue.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors, and Royal Thai Government.

Assessing the serum chymase level as an early predictor of dengue severity

We conducted a prospective, observational study to assess the serum chymase level, a mast cell derived protease, as a predictor of dengue severity. NS1-positive non-severe dengue patients of age ≥14 years with duration of fever ≤4 days were included in the study. At the time of admission, the serum sample was taken for chymase estimation. Patients were followed up to four days after they became afebrile to find out the final diagnosis. Total of 338 non-severe dengue patients were recruited (mean age: 29.15 years; male: 66%). On follow-up, 26 patients (7.8%) developed severe dengue. Only chymase level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.787; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.309-2.440) and platelet count at admission (aOR: 0.981; 95% CI: 0.968-0.993) were able to predict the severity after adjustment for all variables. But, for prediction of severe dengue, the area under receiver's operating curve of chymase was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.765-0.905), which was significantly higher than that of the platelet count at admission (0.760, 95% CI: 0.650-0.870) (p < .001). Patients who developed severe dengue in due course of illness had significantly higher serum chymase level at admission as compared with the rest of the patients. Similar findings were noted across all age-groups. At an optimum cut-off value of 1.35 ng/ml, chymase had a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 3.5 and a negative LR of 0.15, for predicting severe dengue. This study demonstrated the potential ability of serum chymase levels at admission, as a biomarker for prediction of severe dengue in due course of illness.

Covid-19 and dengue: Double punches for dengue-endemic countries in Asia

The coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is an international public health crisis with devastating effects. In particular, this pandemic has further exacerbated the burden in tropical and subtropical regions of the world, where dengue fever, caused by dengue virus (DENV), is already endemic to the population. The similar clinical manifestations shared by Covid-19 and dengue fever have raised concerns, especially in dengue-endemic countries with limited resources, leading to diagnostic challenges. In addition, cross-reactivity of the immune responses in these infections is an emerging concern, as pre-existing DENV-antibodies might potentially affect Covid-19 through antibody-dependent enhancement. In this review article, we aimed to raise the issue of Covid-19 and dengue fever misdiagnosis, not only in a clinical setting but also with regards to cross-reactivity between SARS-CoV-2 and DENV antibodies. We also have discussed the potential consequences of overlapping immunological cascades between dengue and Covid-19 on disease severity and vaccine development.

Metformin as adjunctive therapy for dengue in overweight and obese patients: a protocol for an open-label clinical trial (MeDO)

Background:  Dengue is a disease of major global importance. While most symptomatic infections are mild, a small proportion of patients progress to severe disease with risk of hypovolaemic shock, organ dysfunction and death.  In the absence of effective antiviral or disease modifying drugs, clinical management is solely reliant on supportive measures. Obesity is a growing problem among young people in Vietnam and is increasingly recognised as an important risk factor for severe dengue, likely due to alterations in host immune and inflammatory pathways. Metformin, a widely used anti-hyperglycaemic agent with excellent safety profile, has demonstrated potential as a dengue therapeutic in vitro and in a retrospective observational study of adult dengue patients with type 2 diabetes.  This study aims to assess the safety and tolerability of metformin treatment in overweight and obese dengue patients, and investigate its effects on several clinical, immunological and virological markers of disease severity. Methods: This open label trial of 120 obese/overweight dengue patients will be performed in two phases, with a metformin dose escalation if no safety concerns arise in phase one. The primary endpoint is identification of clinical and laboratory adverse events.  Sixty overweight and obese dengue patients aged 10-30 years will be enrolled at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants will complete a 5-day course of metformin therapy and be compared to a non-treated group of 60 age-matched overweight and obese dengue patients. Discussion:  Previously observed antiviral and immunomodulatory effects of metformin make it a promising dengue therapeutic candidate in appropriately selected patients. This study will assess the safety and tolerability of adjunctive metformin in the management of overweight and obese young dengue patients, as well as its effects on markers of viral replication, endothelial dysfunction and host immune responses.  Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04377451 (May 6 th 2020).

Metformin as adjunctive therapy for dengue in overweight and obese patients: a protocol for an open-label clinical trial (MeDO)

Background:  Dengue is a disease of major global importance. While most symptomatic infections are mild, a small proportion of patients progress to severe disease with risk of hypovolaemic shock, organ dysfunction and death.  In the absence of effective antiviral or disease modifying drugs, clinical management is solely reliant on supportive measures. Obesity is a growing problem among young people in Vietnam and is increasingly recognised as an important risk factor for severe dengue, likely due to alterations in host immune and inflammatory pathways. Metformin, a widely used anti-hyperglycaemic agent with excellent safety profile, has demonstrated potential as a dengue therapeutic in vitro and in a retrospective observational study of adult dengue patients with type 2 diabetes.  This study aims to assess the safety and tolerability of metformin treatment in overweight and obese dengue patients, and investigate its effects on several clinical, immunological and virological markers of disease severity.

Methods: This open label trial of 120 obese/overweight dengue patients will be performed in two phases, with a metformin dose escalation if no safety concerns arise in phase one. The primary endpoint is identification of clinical and laboratory adverse events.  Sixty overweight and obese dengue patients aged 10-30 years will be enrolled at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Participants will complete a 5-day course of metformin therapy and be compared to a non-treated group of 60 age-matched overweight and obese dengue patients.

Discussion:  Previously observed antiviral and immunomodulatory effects of metformin make it a promising dengue therapeutic candidate in appropriately selected patients. This study will assess the safety and tolerability of adjunctive metformin in the management of overweight and obese young dengue patients, as well as its effects on markers of viral replication, endothelial dysfunction and host immune responses. 

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04377451 (May 6 ^th 2020).

Continuous physiological monitoring using wearable technology to inform individual management of infectious diseases, public health and outbreak responses

Optimal management of infectious diseases is guided by up-to-date information at the individual and public health levels. For infections of global importance, including emerging pandemics such as COVID-19 or prevalent endemic diseases such as dengue, identifying patients at risk of severe disease and clinical deterioration can be challenging, considering that the majority present with a mild illness. In our article, we describe the use of wearable technology for continuous physiological monitoring in healthcare settings. Deployment of wearables in hospital settings for the management of infectious diseases, or in the community to support syndromic surveillance during outbreaks, could provide significant, cost-effective advantages and improve healthcare delivery. We highlight a range of promising technologies employed by wearable devices and discuss the technical and ethical issues relating to implementation in the clinic, focusing on low- and middle- income countries. Finally, we propose a set of essential criteria for the rollout of wearable technology for clinical use.

Plasma CRP level is positively associated with the severity of COVID-19

Aims

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized as highly contagious and deadly; however there is no credible and convenient biomarker to predict the severity of the disease. The aim of the present study was to estimate whether the CRP level is able to act as a marker in indicating the severity of COVID-19.

Methods

Patients who complained cough or chest pain with or without fever were enrolled after laboratory confirmed of SARS-CoV-2 viral nucleic acid via qRT-PCR. Chest computed tomography (CT) was then performed to classify the patients into mild, moderate and severe pneumonia groups according to the interim management guideline. Then linear regression models were applied to analyze the association between c-reactive protein (CRP) levels and severity of COVID-19 pneumonia.

Results

When compared to mild pneumonia, the adjusted-Odds Ratio were 11.46, p = 0.029 and 23.40, p = 0.025 in moderate and severe pneumonia, respectively. The area under receiver operation curve was 0.898 (95% CI 0.835, 0.962, p < 0.001). Higher plasma CRP level indicated severe COVID-19 pneumonia and longer inpatients duration.

Conclusions

The level of plasma CRP was positively correlated to the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. Our findings could assist to discern patients of moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia from the mild ones. Our findings may be useful as an earlier indicator for severe illness and help physicians to stratify patients for intense care unit transfer.

Risk Factors and Predictors of Severe Dengue in Saudi Population in Jeddah, Western Saudi Arabia: A Retrospective Study

This study was performed to determine the risk factors and predictors of severe dengue fever (SDF) in Saudi population in Jeddah, Western Saudi Arabia. This 7-year retrospective study included children and adults with confirmed dengue from 2010 to 2016. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, serological, and virologic data were collected. Comparative analyses were performed between pediatric and adult SDF cases defined according to the WHO 2009 dengue classification. During the study period, dengue was confirmed in 17,646 cases with predominant infection of adults (6.5 times that of children) and males (3.8 times that of females). May and June were associated with 43.9% of total dengue cases. All 56 pediatric and 187 adult SDF cases were hospitalized. At least one warning sign of severe illness was present in 92.2% of total SDF cases. Mortality rates were 8.9% and 10.7% of pediatric and adult SDF cases, respectively. Multiple logistic regression detected that the most significant risk factors and predictors of SDF in adults versus children were significantly more secondary dengue infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.09-4.44, P = 0.02), significantly less clinical fluid accumulation (AOR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.07-0.44, P < 0.001) and significantly less neutropenia (AOR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.17-0.97, P = 0.04). This was the first large multicenter study evaluating SDF in Saudi population and considering the WHO 2009 dengue classification, which showed predominant infection of adults and males with dengue, few SDF cases with low mortality and highlighted predictors of SDF in adults versus children. Consideration of warning signs for severe dengue may result in hospital admission, prompting closer monitoring, timely and proper interventions and reduced mortality in SDF cases.

Dengue hemorrhagic fever - A systemic literature review of current perspectives on pathogenesis, prevention and control

BACKGROUND

Dengue is an arboviral disease caused by dengue virus. Symptomatic dengue infection causes a wide range of clinical manifestations, from mild dengue fever (DF) to potentially fatal disease, such as dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) or dengue shock syndrome (DSS). We conducted a literature review to analyze the risks of DHF and current perspectives for DHF prevention and control.

METHODS

According to the PRISMA guidelines, the references were selected from PubMed, Web of Science and Google Scholar database using search strings containing a combination of terms that included dengue hemorrhagic fever, pathogenesis, prevention and control. Quality of references were evaluated by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

DHF was first reported in the Philippines in 1953 and further transmitted to the countries in the region of South-East Asia and Western Pacific. Plasma leakages is the main pathophysiological hallmark that distinguishes DHF from DF. Severe plasma leakage can result in hypovolemic shock. Various factors are thought to impact disease presentation and severity. Virus virulence, preexisting dengue antibodies, immune dysregulation, lipid change and host genetic susceptibility are factors reported to be correlated with the development of DHF. However, the exact reasons and mechanisms that triggers DHF remains controversial. Currently, no specific drugs and licensed vaccines are available to treat dengue disease in any of its clinical presentations.

CONCLUSION

This study concludes that antibody-dependent enhancement, cytokine dysregulation and variation of lipid profiles are correlated with DHF occurrence. Prompt diagnosis, appropriate treatment, active and continuous surveillance of cases and vectors are the essential determinants for dengue prevention and control.

A review of the economic evidence of Aedes-borne arboviruses and Aedes-borne arboviral disease prevention and control strategies

Introduction: Aedes-borne arboviruses contributes substantially to the disease and cost burden.Areas covered: We performed a systematic review of the economic evidence surrounding aedes-borne arboviruses and strategies to prevent and control these diseases to inform disease control policy decisions and research directions. We searched four databases covering an 18-year period (2000-2018) to identify arboviral disease-related cost of illness studies, cost studies of vector control and prevention strategies, cost-effectiveness analyses and cost-benefit analyses. We identified 74 published studies that revealed substantial global total costs in yellow fever virus and dengue virus ranging from 2.1 to 57.3 billion USD. Cost studies of vector control and surveillance programs are limited, but a few studies found that costs of vector control programs ranged from 5.62 to 73.5 million USD. Cost-effectiveness evidence was limited across Aedes-borne diseases, but generally found targeted dengue vaccination programs cost-effective. This review revealed insufficient economic evidence for vaccine introduction and implementation of surveillance and vector control programs.Expert opinion: Evidence of the economic burden of aedes-borne arboviruses and the economic impact of strategies for arboviral disease prevention and control is critical to inform policy decisions and to secure continued financial support for these preventive and control measures.

C-reactive protein as a potential biomarker for disease progression in dengue: a multi-country observational study

BACKGROUND

Dengue infection can cause a wide spectrum of clinical outcomes. The severe clinical manifestations occur sufficiently late in the disease course, during day 4-6 of illness, to allow a window of opportunity for risk stratification. Markers of inflammation may be useful biomarkers. We investigated the value of C-reactive protein (CRP) measured early on illness days 1-3 to predict dengue disease outcome and the difference in CRP levels between dengue and other febrile illnesses (OFI).

METHOD

We performed a nested case-control study using the clinical data and samples collected from the IDAMS-consortium multi-country study. This was a prospective multi-center observational study that enrolled almost 8000 participants presenting with a dengue-like illness to outpatient facilities in 8 countries across Asia and Latin America. Predefined severity definitions of severe and intermediate dengue were used as the primary outcomes. A total of 281 cases with severe/intermediate dengue were compared to 836 uncomplicated dengue patients as controls (ratio 1:3), and also 394 patients with OFI.

RESULTS

In patients with confirmed dengue, median (interquartile range) of CRP level within the first 3 days was 30.2 mg/L (12.4-61.2 mg/L) (uncomplicated dengue, 28.6 (10.5-58.9); severe or intermediate dengue, 34.0 (17.4-71.8)). Higher CRP levels in the first 3 days of illness were associated with a higher risk of severe or intermediate outcome (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.07-1.29), especially in children. Higher CRP levels, exceeding 30 mg/L, also associated with hospitalization (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.14-1.64) and longer fever clearance time (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.76-0.93), especially in adults. CRP levels in patients with dengue were higher than patients with potential viral infection but lower than patients with potential bacterial infection, resulting in a quadratic association between dengue diagnosis and CRP, with levels of approximately 30 mg/L associated with the highest risk of having dengue. CRP had a positive correlation with total white cell count and neutrophils and negative correlation with lymphocytes, but did not correlate with liver transaminases, albumin, or platelet nadir.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, CRP measured in the first 3 days of illness could be a useful biomarker for early dengue risk prediction and may assist differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses.

Validation of Decision Groups in Patients with Dengue Fever: A Study during 2015 Outbreak in Taiwan

The management of dengue fever (DF) has been suggested to be categorized into decision groups A, B, and C; however, its usefulness in predicting mortality is still unclear, and hence we conducted this study to clarify this issue. We conducted a study by recruiting 2,358 patients with DF from the 2015 outbreak in the Chi-Mei Medical Center. Demographic data, vital signs, clinical symptoms and signs, coexisting morbidities, laboratory data, decision groups categorized according to World Health Organization for clinical management of dengue in 2012, and 30-day mortality rates were included for analysis. The overall 30-day mortality rate was 1.4%. The 30-day mortality rates in decision groups A, B, and C were 0%, 0.5%, and 46.2%, respectively. Compared with Group A, there was a higher mortality risk in Group C (odds ratio [OR]: 1,480, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 195-11,200). The area under the curve of the variable of Group C was excellent (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99). The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality in Group C were 88.2%, 98.5%, 46.2%, and 99.8%, respectively. This study showed that decision Group C has a good predictive value for 30-day mortality. Further studies including validation in other nations are warranted.

Clinical prognostic models for severe dengue: a systematic review protocol

Background: Dengue is a common mosquito-borne, with high morbidity rates recorded in the annual. Dengue contributes to a major disease burden in many tropical countries. This demonstrates the urgent need in developing effective approaches to identify severe cases early. For this purpose, many multivariable prognostic models using multiple prognostic variables were developed to predict the risk of progression to severe outcomes. The aim of the planned systematic review is to identify and describe the existing clinical multivariable prognostic models for severe dengue as well as examine the possibility of combining them. These findings will suggest directions for further research of this field. Methods: This protocol has followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta - Analyses Protocol (PRISMA-P). We will conduct a comprehensive search of Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science. Eligibility criteria include being published in peer-review journals, focusing on human subjects and developing the multivariable prognostic model for severe dengue, without any restriction on language, location and period of publication, and study design. The reference list will be captured and removed from duplications. We will use the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist to extract data and Prediction study risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) to assess the study quality. Discussion: This systematic review will describe the existing prediction models, summarize the current status of prognostic research on dengue, and report the possibility to combine the models to optimize the power of each paradigm. PROSPERO registration: CRD42018102907.

Risk prediction for severe disease and better diagnostic accuracy in early dengue infection; the Colombo dengue study

Background

A major challenge in dengue management in resource limited settings is the confirmation of diagnosis. Clinical features of dengue often overlap with other infections and molecular diagnostic tools are not readily accessible to clinicians at hospitals. In addition, the prediction of plasma leakage in dengue is also difficult. Hematocrit level and ultrasound scans (combined with clinical parameters) are helpful to detect plasma leakage once it has happened, not before.

Methods

Colombo Dengue Study (CDS) is a prospective cohort study of clinically suspected adult dengue patients recruited from the National hospital of Sri Lanka (within the first 3 days of fever) that aimed to a) identify clinical and basic laboratory test parameters to differentiate dengue from non-dengue fever, b) evaluate the comparative efficacy of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) for dengue diagnosis (vs. NS1 antigen test and RT-qPCR) and c) identify early associations that are predictive of plasma leakage or severe dengue. The basic laboratory tests considered here included hematological parameters, serum biochemistry and inflammatory markers.

Results

Only 70% of clinically suspected patients were confirmed as having dengue by either the NS1 antigen test or RT-qPCR. On a Bayesian latent class model which assumes no “gold standard”, LAMP performed equally or better than RT-qPCR and NS1 antigen test respectively. When confirmed dengue patients were compared with others, the earlier group had significantly lower lymphocyte counts and higher aspartate aminotransferase levels (AST) within the first 3 days of fever. Confirmed dengue patients with plasma leakage had a lower mean age and a higher median baseline AST level compared to those without plasma leakage (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Clinical suspicion overestimates the true number of dengue patients. RT-LAMP is a potentially useful low-cost diagnostic tool for dengue diagnosis. Confirmed dengue patients had significantly higher AST levels and lower lymphocyte counts in early disease compared to others. In confirmed dengue patients, younger age and a higher AST level in early infection were associated with subsequent plasma leakage.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4304-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Peripheral serotonin causes dengue virus-induced thrombocytopenia through 5HT2 receptors

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent vector-borne viral pathogen, infecting millions of patients annually. Thrombocytopenia, a reduction in circulating platelet counts, is the most consistent sign of DENV-induced disease, independent of disease severity. However, the mechanisms leading to DENV-induced thrombocytopenia are unknown. Here, we show that thrombocytopenia is caused by serotonin derived from mast cells (MCs), which are immune cells that are present in the perivascular space and are a major peripheral source of serotonin. We show that during DENV infection, MCs release serotonin, which prompts platelet activation, aggregation, and enhanced phagocytosis, dependent on 5HT_2A receptors. MC deficiency in mice or pharmacologic inhibition of MCs reversed thrombocytopenia. Furthermore, reconstitution of MC-deficient mice with wild-type MCs, but not MCs lacking serotonin synthesis resulting from deficiency in the enzyme tryptophan hydroxylase-1, restored the thrombocytopenic phenotype. Exogenous serotonin was also sufficient to overcome the effects of drugs that inhibit platelet activation in vitro and to restore thrombocytopenia in DENV-infected MC-deficient mice. Therapeutic targeting of 5HT_2A receptors during DENV infection effectively prevented thrombocytopenia in mice. Similarly, serotonin derived from DENV-activated human MCs led to increased human platelet activation. Thus, MC-derived serotonin is a previously unidentified mechanism of DENV-induced thrombocytopenia and a potential therapeutic target.

Clinical Indicators of Fatal Dengue in Two Endemic Areas of Colombia: A Hospital-Based Case-Control Study

According to the World Health Organization, 98% of fatal dengue cases can be prevented; however, endemic countries such as Colombia have recorded higher case fatality rates during recent epidemics. We aimed to identify the predictors of mortality that allow risk stratification and timely intervention in patients with dengue. We conducted a hospital-based, case-control (1:2) study in two endemic areas of Colombia (2009-2015). Fatal cases were defined as having either 1) positive serological test (IgM or NS1), 2) positive virological test (RT-PCR or viral isolation), or 3) autopsy findings compatible with death from dengue. Controls (matched by state and year) were hospitalized nonfatal patients and had a positive serological or virological dengue test. Exposure data were extracted from medical records by trained staff. We used conditional logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, disease's duration, and health-care provider) in the context of multiple imputation to estimate exposure to case-control associations. We evaluated 110 cases and 217 controls (mean age: 35.0 versus 18.9; disease's duration pre-admission: 4.9 versus 5.0 days). In multivariable analysis, retro-ocular pain (odds ratios [OR] = 0.23), nausea (OR = 0.29), and diarrhea (OR = 0.19) were less prevalent among fatal than nonfatal cases, whereas increased age (OR = 2.46 per 10 years), respiratory distress (OR = 16.3), impaired consciousness (OR = 15.9), jaundice (OR = 32.2), and increased heart rate (OR = 2.01 per 10 beats per minute) increased the likelihood of death (AUC: 0.97, 95% confidence interval: 0.96, 0.99). These results provide evidence that features of severe dengue are associated with higher mortality, which strengthens the recommendations related to triaging patients in dengue-endemic areas.

Dengue

Mortality from severe dengue is low, but the economic and resource burden on health services remains substantial in endemic settings. Unfortunately, progress towards development of effective therapeutics has been slow, despite notable advances in the understanding of disease pathogenesis and considerable investment in antiviral drug discovery. For decades antibody-dependent enhancement has been the prevalent model to explain dengue pathogenesis, but it was only recently demonstrated in vivo and in clinical studies. At present, the current mainstay of management for most symptomatic dengue patients remains careful observation and prompt but judicious use of intravenous hydration therapy for those with substantial vascular leakage. Various new promising technologies for diagnosis of dengue are currently in the pipeline. New sample-in, answer-out nucleic acid amplification technologies for point-of-care use are being developed to improve performance over current technologies, with the potential to test for multiple pathogens using a single specimen. The search for biomarkers that reliably predict development of severe dengue among symptomatic individuals is also a major focus of current research efforts. The first dengue vaccine was licensed in 2015 but its performance depends on serostatus. There is an urgent need to identify correlates of both vaccine protection and disease enhancement. A crucial assessment of vector control tools should guide a research agenda for determining the most effective interventions, and how to best combine state-of-the-art vector control with vaccination.

Clinical prognostic models for severe dengue: a systematic review protocol

Background: Dengue is a common mosquito-borne, with high morbidity rates recorded in the annually. Dengue contributes a major disease burden in many tropical countries. This demonstrates the urgent need in developing effective approaches to identify severe cases early. For this purpose, many multivariable prognostic models using multiple prognostic variables were developed to predict the risk of progression to severe outcomes. The aim of the planned systematic review is to identify and describe the existing clinical multivariable prognostic models for severe dengue as well as examine the possibility of combining them. These findings will suggest directions for further research of this field. Methods: This protocol has followed the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta - Analyses Protocol (PRISMA-P). We will conduct a comprehensive search of Pubmed, Embase and Web of Science. Eligiblity criteria include being published in peer-review journals, focusing on human subjects and developing the multivariable prognostic model for severe dengue, without any restriction on language, location and period of publication, and study design. The reference list will be captured and removed from duplications. We will use the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist to extract data and Prediction study risk of bias assessment tool (PROBAST) to assess the study quality. Discussion: This systematic review will describe the existing prediction models, summarize the current status of prognostic research on dengue, and report the possibility to combine the models to optimize the power of each paradigm. PROSPERO registration: CRD42018102907.

Improving Dengue Diagnostics and Management Through Innovative Technology

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Dengue continues to be a major global public health threat. Symptomatic infections can cause a spectrum of disease ranging from a mild febrile illness to severe and potentially life-threatening manifestations. Management relies on supportive treatment with careful fluid replacement. The purpose of this review is to define the unmet needs and challenges in current dengue diagnostics and patient monitoring and outline potential novel technologies to address these needs.

RECENT FINDINGS

There have been recent advances in molecular and point-of-care (POC) diagnostics as well as technologies including wireless communication, low-power microelectronics, and wearable sensors that have opened up new possibilities for management, clinical monitoring, and real-time surveillance of dengue. Novel platforms utilizing innovative technologies for POC dengue diagnostics and wearable patient monitors have the potential to revolutionize dengue surveillance, outbreak response, and management at population and individual levels. Validation studies of these technologies are urgently required in dengue-endemic areas.

Critical care for dengue in adult patients: an overview of current knowledge and future challenges

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review aims to update and summarize the current knowledge about clinical features, management, and risk factors of adult dengue patients requiring intensive care with consequently higher risk of mortality.

RECENT FINDINGS

Increasingly, there are more adult dengue patients who require intensive care. This may be due to a shift in epidemiology of dengue infection from mainly a pediatric disease toward adult disease. In addition, multiorgan dysfunction was observed to be a key risk factor for ICU admission and mortality. This may be due to older adults having preexisting comorbidities that potentially predispose to have multiple severe organ impairment. Interventions remain largely supportive but also require more evidence-based trials and treatment protocols.

SUMMARY

These findings highlight the common clinical manifestations of adult dengue patients and the challenges of clinical management in ICU. Risk factors for prediction of adult dengue patients who require ICU are available, but they lack validation and consistent study design for meta-analysis in future. Early recognition of these risk factors, with close monitoring and prompt clinical management, remains critical to reduce mortality.

Dengue score as a diagnostic predictor for pleural effusion and/or ascites: external validation and clinical application

BACKGROUND

The Dengue Score is a model for predicting pleural effusion and/or ascites and uses the hematocrit (Hct), albumin concentration, platelet count and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) ratio as independent variables. As this metric has not been validated, we conducted a study to validate the Dengue Score and assess its clinical application.

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed at a private hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia. Patients with dengue infection hospitalized from January 2011 through March 2016 were included. The Dengue Score was calculated using four parameters: Hct increase≥15.1%, serum albumin≤3.49 mg/dL, platelet count≤49,500/μL and AST ratio ≥ 2.51. Each parameter was scored as 1 if present and 0 if absent. To validate the Dengue Score, goodness-of-fit was used to assess calibration, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AROC) was used to assess discrimination. Associations between clinical parameters and Dengue Score groups were determined by bivariate analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 207 patients were included in this study. The calibration of the Dengue Score was acceptable (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, p = 0.11), and the score's discriminative ability was good (AROC = 0.88 (95% CI: 0.83-0.92)). At a cutoff of ≥2, the Dengue Score had a positive predictive value (PPV) of 79.03% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 90.36% for the diagnostic prediction of pleural effusion and/or ascites. Compared with the Dengue Score ≤ 1 group, the Dengue Score = 2 group was significantly associated with hemoconcentration> 20% (p = 0.029), severe thrombocytopenia (p = 0.029), and increased length of hospital stay (p = 0.003). Compared with the Dengue Score = 2 group, the Dengue Score ≥ 3 group was significantly associated with hemoconcentration> 20% (p = 0.001), severe thrombocytopenia (p = 0.024), severe dengue (p = 0.039), and increased length of hospital stay (p = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

The Dengue Score performed well and can be used in daily practice to help clinicians identify patients who have plasma leakage associated with severe dengue.

Clinical Features and Laboratory Findings of Travelers Returning to South Australia with Dengue Virus Infection

Reported cases of dengue are rising in South Australia (SA) in travellers returning from dengue-endemic regions. We have undertaken a retrospective analysis to identify the clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients returning to SA with suspected dengue virus (DENV) infection. From 488 requests, 49 (10%) were defined by serology as acute dengue, with the majority of patients (75%) testing as non-structural protein 1 (NS1) and/or IgM positive. Dengue was most commonly acquired in Indonesia (42.9%) with clinical features of fever (95%), headache (41%) and myalgia/arthralgia (56%). The presence of rash (36%) and laboratory findings of neutropenia, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, but not elevated C-reactive protein, were distinct from findings in DENV-seronegative patients. Available dengue seropositive samples were analysed by RT-PCR, with 14/32 (43.8%) positive by a serotype non-specific DENV assay, but 28/32 positive (87.5%) when also assessed by serotype-specific RT-PCR. Serotype analysis revealed the predominance of DENV-1 and DENV-2 and the presence of DENV-3, but not DENV-4 or Zika virus (ZIKV). Thus, dengue in returned travellers in SA presents in a manner consistent with World Health Organization (WHO) definitions, with symptoms, travel history and laboratory results useful in prioritising the likelihood of dengue. This definition will assist the future management in DENV-non-endemic regions, such as SA.

The reintroduction of DENV-2 in 2011 in Panama and subsequent outbreak characteristic

The circulation of the South-east Asian/American (AS/AM) dengue 2 virus (DENV-2) genotype in the Americas has been associated with a high rate of severe disease. From 1993, the year DENV was reintroduced in Panama, until 2011 there were 29 dengue-associated deaths, 17 of which occurred in 2011, the most severe outbreak with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 44% (17 deaths out of 38 severe dengue cases). During this outbreak DENV-2 was reintroduced into the country, whereas over the prior five years DENV-1 and -3 were predominant. Herein, we describe the 2011 Panama outbreak and genetically characterize the Panamanian DENV-2 strains, which were associated with severe dengue disease in Panama. Our results suggest that the DENV-2 isolates from this outbreak belonged to the AS/AM genotype sub-clade 2BI and were genetically close to viruses described in the outbreaks in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and Mexico from 2006-2011. Sub-clade 2BI has previously been associated with severe disease in Nicaragua during outbreaks from 2005-2007.

Behavior of detoxifying enzymes of Aedes aegypti exposed to girgensohnine alkaloid analog and Cymbopogon flexuosus essential oil

Because mosquito control depend on the use of commercial insecticides and resistance has been described in some of them, there is a need to explore new molecules no resistant. In vivo effects of girgensohnine analog 2-(3,4-dimethoxyphenyl)-2-(piperidin-1-yl)acetonitrile DPPA and Cymbopogon flexuosus essential oil CFEO, on the detoxifying enzymes acetylcholinesterase (AChE), glutathione-S-transferase (GST), nonspecific esterases (α- and β-), mixed function oxidases (MFO) and p-NPA esterases were evaluated on a Rockefeller (Rock) and wild Aedes aegypti population from Santander, Colombia (WSant). The action was tested after 24h of exposure at concentrations of 20.10, 35.18 and 70.35mgL^-1 of DPPA and 18.45, 30.75 and 61.50mgL^-1 of CFEO, respectively. It was found that AChE activity of Rock and WSant was not influenced by the evaluated concentration of DPPA and CFEO (p>0.05), while MFO activity was significantly affected by all CFEO concentrations in WSant (p<0.05). GST, α- and β-esterase activities were affected in Rock exposed at the highest CFEO concentration, this concentration also modified β-esterases activity of WSant. DPPA and CFEO sublethal doses induced inhibition of AChE activity on untreated larvae homogenate from 12 to 20% and 18 to 26%, respectively. For untreated adult homogenate, the inhibition activity raised up to 14 to 27% for DPPA and 26 to 34% for CFEO. Elevated levels of detoxifying enzymes, found when CFEO was evaluated, showed a larval sensitivity not observed by the pure compound suggesting that DPPA, contrary to CFEO, was not recognized, transformed or eliminated by the evaluated detoxifying enzymes.

Meta-analysis of biomarkers for severe dengue infections

BACKGROUND

Dengue viral infection is an acute infection that has the potential to have severe complications as its major sequela. Currently, there is no routine laboratory biomarker with which to predict the severity of dengue infection or monitor the effectiveness of standard management. Hence, this meta-analysis compared biomarker levels between dengue fever (DF) and severe dengue infections (SDI) to identify potential biomarkers for SDI.

METHODS

Data concerning levels of cytokines, chemokines, and other potential biomarkers of DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome, and severe dengue were obtained for patients of all ages and populations using the Scopus, PubMed, and Ovid search engines. The keywords "(IL1* or IL-1*) AND (dengue*)" were used and the same process was repeated for other potential biomarkers, according to Medical Subject Headings terms suggested by PubMed and Ovid. Meta-analysis of the mean difference in plasma or serum level of biomarkers between DF and SDI patients was performed, separated by different periods of time (days) since fever onset. Subgroup analyses comparing biomarker levels of healthy plasma and sera controls, biomarker levels of primary and secondary infection samples were also performed, as well as analyses of different levels of severity and biomarker levels upon infection by different dengue serotypes.

RESULTS

Fifty-six studies of 53 biomarkers from 3,739 dengue cases (2,021 DF and 1,728 SDI) were included in this meta-analysis. Results showed that RANTES, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-18, TGF-b, and VEGFR2 levels were significantly different between DF and SDI. IL-8, IL-10, and IL-18 levels increased during SDI (95% CI, 18.1-253.2 pg/mL, 3-13 studies, n = 177-1,909, I2 = 98.86%-99.75%). In contrast, RANTES, IL-7, TGF-b, and VEGFR2 showed a decrease in levels during SDI (95% CI, -3238.7 to -3.2 pg/mL, 1-3 studies, n = 95-418, I2 = 97.59%-99.99%). Levels of these biomarkers were also found to correlate with the severity of the dengue infection, in comparison to healthy controls. Furthermore, the results showed that IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, TGF-b, and VEGFR2 display peak differences between DF and SDI during or before the critical phase (day 4-5) of SDI.

DISCUSSION

This meta-analysis suggests that IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, TGF-b, and VEGFR2 may be used as potential early laboratory biomarkers in the diagnosis of SDI. This can be used to predict the severity of dengue infection and to monitor the effectiveness of treatment. Nevertheless, methodological and reporting limitations must be overcome in future research to minimize variables that affect the results and to confirm the findings.

IL-10 and socs3 Are Predictive Biomarkers of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Background

Cytokines play important roles in the physiopathology of dengue infection; therefore, the suppressors of cytokine signaling (socs) that control the type and timing of cytokine functions could be involved in the origin of immune alterations in dengue.

Objective

To explore the association of cytokine and socs levels with disease severity in dengue patients.

Methods

Blood samples of 48 patients with confirmed dengue infection were analyzed. Amounts of interleukins IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10, interferon- (IFN-) γ, and tumor necrosis factor- (TNF-) α were quantified by flow cytometry, and the relative expression of socs1 and socs3 mRNA was quantified by real-time RT-PCR.

Results

Increased levels of IL-10 and socs3 and lower expression of socs1 were found in patients with dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) with respect to those with dengue fever (DF) (p < 0.05). Negative correlations were found between socs1 and both IL-10 and socs3 (p < 0.01). The cutoff values of socs3 (>199.8-fold), socs1 (<1.94-fold), and IL-10 (>134 pg/ml) have the highest sensitivity and specificity to discriminate between DF and DHF.

Conclusion

Simultaneous changes in IL-10 and socs1/socs3 could be used as prognostic biomarkers of dengue severity.

Post-dengue acute disseminated encephalomyelitis: A case report and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Dengue is one of the most common infectious diseases. The aim of this study was to systematically review acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (ADEM) and to represent a new case.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We searched for articles in nine databases for case reports, series or previous reviews reporting ADEM cases in human. We used Fisher's exact and Mann-Whitney U tests. Classification trees were used to find the predictors of the disease outcomes. We combined findings using fixed- and random-effects models. A 13-year-old girl was admitted to the hospital due to fever. She has a urinary retention. The neurological examinations revealed that she became lethargic and quadriplegic. She had upper limbs weakness and lower limbs complete paraplegia. Her status gradually improved after the treatment. She was nearly intact with the proximal part of her legs had a mild weakness in discharge. The prevalence of ADEM among dengue patients was 0.4% [95% confidence intervals (95% CI) 0.1-2.5%], all neurological disorders among dengue was 2.6% [95% CI 1.8-3.8%], and ADEM among neurological disorders was 6.8% [95% CI 3.4-13%]. The most frequent manifestation of ADEM was altered sensorium/consciousness (58%), seizures and urination problems (35%), vision problems (31%), slurred speech (23%), walk problems (15%) then ataxia (12%). There was a significant difference between cases having complete recovery or bad outcomes in the onset day of neurological manifestations being earlier and in temperature being higher in cases having bad outcomes (p-value < 0.05). This was confirmed by classification trees which included these two variables.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

The prevalence of ADEM among dengue and other dengue-related neurological disorders is not too rare. The high fever of ADEM cases at admission and earlier onset day of neurological manifestations are associated with the bad outcomes.

Aberrant monocyte responses predict and characterize dengue virus infection in individuals with severe disease

BACKGROUND

Currently, several assays can diagnose acute dengue infection. However, none of these assays can predict the severity of the disease. Biomarkers that predicts the likelihood that a dengue patient will develop a severe form of the disease could permit more efficient patient triage and allows better supportive care for the individual in need, especially during dengue outbreaks.

METHODS

We measured 20 plasma markers i.e. IFN-γ, IL-10, granzyme-B, CX3CL1, IP-10, RANTES, CXCL8, CXCL6, VCAM, ICAM, VEGF, HGF, sCD25, IL-18, LBP, sCD14, sCD163, MIF, MCP-1 and MIP-1β in 141 dengue patients in over 230 specimens and correlate the levels of these plasma markers with the development of dengue without warning signs (DWS-), dengue with warning signs (DWS+) and severe dengue (SD).

RESULTS

Our results show that the elevation of plasma levels of IL-18 at both febrile and defervescence phase was significantly associated with DWS+ and SD; whilst increase of sCD14 and LBP at febrile phase were associated with severity of dengue disease. By using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the IL-18, LBP and sCD14 were significantly predicted the development of more severe form of dengue disease (DWS+/SD) (AUC = 0.768, P < 0.0001; AUC = 0.819, P < 0.0001 and AUC = 0.647, P = 0.014 respectively). Furthermore, we also found that the levels of VEGF were directly correlated and sCD14 was inversely correlated with platelet count, suggesting that the endothelial activation and microbial translocation may played a role in pathogenesis of dengue disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that the elevation IL-18, LBP and sCD14 among patients with severe form of dengue disease, our findings suggest a pathogenic role for an aberrant inflammasome and monocyte activation in the development of severe form of dengue disease.

Clinical and Laboratory Diagnosis of Dengue Virus Infection

Infection with any of the 4 dengue virus serotypes results in a diverse range of symptoms, from mild undifferentiated fever to life-threatening hemorrhagic fever and shock. Given that dengue virus infection elicits such a broad range of clinical symptoms, early and accurate laboratory diagnosis is essential for appropriate patient management. Virus detection and serological conversion have been the main targets of diagnostic assessment for many years, however cross-reactivity of antibody responses among the flaviviruses has been a confounding issue in providing a differential diagnosis. Furthermore, there is no single, definitive diagnostic biomarker that is present across the entire period of patient presentation, particularly in those experiencing a secondary dengue infection. Nevertheless, the development and commercialization of point-of-care combination tests capable of detecting markers of infection present during different stages of infection (viral nonstructural protein 1 and immunoglobulin M) has greatly simplified laboratory-based dengue diagnosis. Despite these advances, significant challenges remain in the clinical management of dengue-infected patients, especially in the absence of reliable biomarkers that provide an effective prognostic indicator of severe disease progression. This review briefly summarizes some of the complexities and issues surrounding clinical dengue diagnosis and the laboratory diagnostic options currently available.

The value of daily platelet counts for predicting dengue shock syndrome: Results from a prospective observational study of 2301 Vietnamese children with dengue

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral infection to affect humans. Although it usually manifests as a self-limited febrile illness, complications may occur as the fever subsides. A systemic vascular leak syndrome that sometimes progresses to life-threatening hypovolaemic shock is the most serious complication seen in children, typically accompanied by haemoconcentration and thrombocytopenia. Robust evidence on risk factors, especially features present early in the illness course, for progression to dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is lacking. Moreover, the potential value of incorporating serial haematocrit and platelet measurements in prediction models has never been assessed.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We analyzed data from a prospective observational study of Vietnamese children aged 5-15 years admitted with clinically suspected dengue to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City between 2001 and 2009. The analysis population comprised all children with laboratory-confirmed dengue enrolled between days 1-4 of illness. Logistic regression was the main statistical model for all univariate and multivariable analyses. The prognostic value of daily haematocrit levels and platelet counts were assessed using graphs and separate regression models fitted on each day of illness. Among the 2301 children included in the analysis, 143 (6%) progressed to DSS. Significant baseline risk factors for DSS included a history of vomiting, higher temperature, a palpable liver, and a lower platelet count. Prediction models that included serial daily platelet counts demonstrated better ability to discriminate patients who developed DSS from others, than models based on enrolment information only. However inclusion of daily haematocrit values did not improve prediction of DSS.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Daily monitoring of platelet counts is important to help identify patients at high risk of DSS. Development of dynamic prediction models that incorporate signs, symptoms, and daily laboratory measurements, could improve DSS prediction and thereby reduce the burden on health services in endemic areas.

Diabetes, cardiac disorders and asthma as risk factors for severe organ involvement among adult dengue patients: A matched case-control study

Progression to severe organ involvement due to dengue infection has been associated with severe dengue disease, intensive care treatment, and mortality. However, there is a lack of understanding of the impact of pre-existing comorbidities and other risk factors of severe organ involvement among dengue adults. The aim of this retrospective case-control study is to characterize and identify risk factors that predispose dengue adults at risk of progression with severe organ involvement. This study involved 174 dengue patients who had progressed with severe organ involvement and 865 dengue patients without severe organ involvement, matched by the year of presentation of the cases, who were admitted to Tan Tock Seng Hospital between year 2005 and 2008. Age group of 60 years or older, diabetes, cardiac disorders, asthma, and having two or more pre-existing comorbidities were independent risk factors of severe organ involvement. Abdominal pain, clinical fluid accumulation, and hematocrit rise and rapid platelet count drop at presentation were significantly associated with severe organ involvement. These risk factors, when validated in a larger study, will be useful for triage by clinicians for prompt monitoring and clinical management at first presentation, to minimize the risk of severe organ involvement and hence, disease severity.

Discovery and Validation of Prognostic Biomarker Models to Guide Triage among Adult Dengue Patients at Early Infection

Background

Dengue results in a significant public health burden in endemic regions. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the use of warning signs (WS) to stratify patients at risk of severe dengue disease in 2009. However, WS is limited in stratifying adult dengue patients at early infection (Day 1–3 post fever), who require close monitoring in hospitals to prevent severe dengue. The aim of this study is to identify and validate prognostic models, built with differentially expressed biomarkers, that enable the early identification of those with early dengue infection that require close clinical monitoring.

Methods

RNA microarray and protein assays were performed to identify differentially expressed biomarkers of severity among 92 adult dengue patients recruited at early infection from years 2005–2008. This comprised 47 cases who developed WS after first presentation and required hospitalization (WS+Hosp), as well as 45 controls who did not develop WS after first presentation and did not require hospitalization (Non-WS+Non-Hosp). Independent validation was conducted with 80 adult dengue patients recruited from years 2009–2012. Prognostic models were developed based on forward stepwise and backward elimination estimation, using multiple logistic regressions. Prognostic power was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The WS+Hosp group had significantly higher viral load (P<0.001), lower platelet (P<0.001) and lymphocytes counts (P = 0.004) at early infection compared to the Non-WS+Non-Hosp group. From the RNA microarray and protein assays, the top single RNA and protein prognostic models at early infection were CCL8 RNA (AUC:0.73) and IP-10 protein (AUC:0.74), respectively. The model with CCL8, VPS13C RNA, uPAR protein, and with CCL8, VPS13C RNA and platelets were the best biomarker models for stratifying adult dengue patients at early infection, with sensitivity and specificity up to 83% and 84%, respectively. These results were tested in the independent validation group, showing sensitivity and specificity up to 96% and 54.6%, respectively.

Conclusions

At early infection, adult dengue patients who later presented WS and require hospitalization have significantly different pathophysiology compared with patients who consistently presented no WS and / or require no hospitalization. The molecular prognostic models developed and validated here based on these pathophysiology differences, could offer earlier and complementary indicators to the clinical WHO 2009 WS guide, in order to triage adult dengue patients at early infection.

Association of Microvascular Function and Endothelial Biomarkers With Clinical Outcome in Dengue: An Observational Study

Background. The hallmark of severe dengue is increased microvascular permeability, but alterations in the microcirculation and their evolution over the course of dengue are unknown.

Methods. We conducted a prospective observational study to evaluate the sublingual microcirculation using side-stream dark-field imaging in patients presenting early (<72 hours after fever onset) and patients hospitalized with warning signs or severe dengue in Vietnam. Clinical findings, microvascular function, global hemodynamics assessed with echocardiography, and serological markers of endothelial activation were determined at 4 time points.

Results. A total of 165 patients were enrolled. No difference was found between the microcirculatory parameters comparing dengue with other febrile illnesses. The proportion of perfused vessels (PPV) and the mean flow index (MFI) were lower in patients with dengue with plasma than those without leakage (PPV, 88.1% vs 90.6% [P = .01]; MFI, 2.1 vs 2.4 [P = .007]), most markedly during the critical phase. PPV and MFI were correlated with the endothelial activation markers vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (P < .001 for both) and angiopoietin 2 (P < .001 for both), negatively correlated.

Conclusions. Modest microcirculatory alterations occur in dengue, are associated with plasma leakage, and are correlate with molecules of endothelial activation, angiopoietin 2 and vascular cell adhesion molecule 1.