The inevitable colonisation of Singapore by Zika virus

ZIKA Virus, an Emerging Arbovirus in India: A Glimpse of Global Genetic Lineages

ZIKA fever (ZIKAF) is an emerging mosquito-borne flavivirus illness in humans. Regarding the etiological agent, ZIKA virus (ZIKAV), though it is known to be distributed in the tropics, causing sporadic cases, its rapid global expansion with pandemic potential has raised global concern. Due to its abrupt emergence in South American countries, the Caribbean, and the Americas, the WHO declared ZIKA a public health emergency of international concern in 2016. ZIKAV usually causes mild infections; however, its recent unusual presentations of Guillen-Barré syndrome in adults and microcephaly in newborn babies of ZIKAV-infected mothers in Brazil has caused concern among global public health authorities. Certain mutations on virus genomes have been found to be correlated with clinical severity, and its unusual transmission routes through sexual and blood transfusions emphasize the necessity for understanding its virological determinants and impact. Its abrupt re-emergence in India (2018-2019), particularly in Gujarat (2016), Tamil Nadu (2017), Uttar Pradesh (2021), Maharashtra, Kerala (2021), and Karnataka (2023), has indicated the need for urgent measures to strengthen surveillance systems and design effective prevention and control measures in this country. Given the global concern around ZIKAV, here, we reviewed current knowledge about global ZIKAV genetic lineages vis à vis the situation in India and discussed future priorities for ZIKAV research in India for effectively designing control strategies.

Modelling the impact and cost-effectiveness of upcoming Zika virus vaccines on congenital Zika syndrome

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) continues to circulate in Southeast Asia following the 2015-2016 global epidemic, posing an ongoing risk of importation and disease spread for Singapore, a tropical city-state in the region. The virus remains a threat to pregnant women and their fetuses due to the risk of Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS). Vaccines currently in development offer hope for reducing ZIKV infections and CZS cases.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based compartmental model, incorporating Singapore's demographic dynamics, to simulate ZIKV epidemic trajectories and project the national disease burden of CZS over the next decade. We proposed eight vaccination strategies targeting females of child-bearing age and evaluated their cost-effectiveness-in terms of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)-across scenarios with varying vaccine efficacy, protection duration, coverage rate, vaccination cost, and pre-existing immunity levels in the population.

RESULTS

Continuous high importation of ZIKV could lead to multiple small outbreaks in the next decade. Total CZS case numbers over the next decade were projected to be 68 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 66-70), 51 (95 % CI: 49-52), and 32 (95 % CI: 31-33) under scenarios of 0 %, 2 %, and 5 % pre-existing immunity, respectively. While mass vaccination for females would avert up to 66 (95 % CI: 64-69), 49 (95 % CI: 48-50), and 31 (95 % CI: 30-31) CZS cases, respectively, the cost-effectiveness of these strategies should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. The pre-pregnancy vaccination strategy demonstrated consistent cost-effectiveness regardless of vaccine protection duration, vaccine efficacy, vaccine price, or pre-existing immunity level in the population.

CONCLUSIONS

Localised outbreaks driven by importation are likely to persist in Singapore. The pre-pregnancy vaccination strategy is consistently cost-effective and should be considered. Mass vaccination may also be viable with the availability of a low-cost vaccine providing long-term protection.

Assessing the efficacy of male Wolbachia-infected mosquito deployments to reduce dengue incidence in Singapore: study protocol for a cluster-randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Dengue is a severe environmental public health challenge in tropical and subtropical regions. In Singapore, decreasing seroprevalence and herd immunity due to successful vector control has paradoxically led to increased transmission potential of the dengue virus. We have previously demonstrated that incompatible insect technique coupled with sterile insect technique (IIT-SIT), which involves the release of X-ray-irradiated male Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, reduced the Aedes aegypti population by 98% and dengue incidence by 88%. This novel vector control tool is expected to be able to complement current vector control to mitigate the increasing threat of dengue on a larger scale. We propose a multi-site protocol to study the efficacy of IIT-SIT at reducing dengue incidence.

METHODS/DESIGN

The study is designed as a parallel, two-arm, non-blinded cluster-randomized (CR) controlled trial to be conducted in high-rise public housing estates in Singapore, an equatorial city-state. The aim is to determine whether large-scale deployment of male Wolbachia-infected Ae. aegypti mosquitoes can significantly reduce dengue incidence in intervention clusters. We will use the CR design, with the study area comprising 15 clusters with a total area of 10.9 km2, covering approximately 722,204 residents in 1713 apartment blocks. Eight clusters will be randomly selected to receive the intervention, while the other seven will serve as non-intervention clusters. Intervention efficacy will be estimated through two primary endpoints: (1) odds ratio of Wolbachia exposure distribution (i.e., probability of living in an intervention cluster) among laboratory-confirmed reported dengue cases compared to test-negative controls and (2) laboratory-confirmed reported dengue counts normalized by population size in intervention versus non-intervention clusters.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide evidence from a multi-site, randomized controlled trial for the efficacy of IIT-SIT in reducing dengue incidence. The trial will provide valuable information to estimate intervention efficacy for this novel vector control approach and guide plans for integration into national vector control programs in dengue-endemic settings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT05505682 . Registered on 16 August 2022. Retrospectively registered.

Distinguishing Zika and Dengue Viruses through Simple Clinical Assessment, Singapore

Dengue virus and Zika virus coexist in tropical regions in Asia where healthcare resources are limited; differentiating the 2 viruses is challenging. We showed in a case–control discovery cohort, and replicated in a validation cohort, that the diagnostic indices of conjunctivitis, platelet count, and monocyte count reliably distinguished between these viruses.

Zika virus infection in Malaysia: an epidemiological, clinical and virological analysis

BACKGROUND

A major outbreak of the Zika virus (ZIKV) has been reported in Brazil in 2015. Since then, it spread further to other countries in the Americas and resulted in declaration of the Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by World Health Organization. In 2016, Singapore reported its first minor ZIKV epidemic. Malaysia shares similar ecological environment as Brazil and Singapore which may also favor ZIKV transmission. However, no ZIKV outbreak has been reported in Malaysia to date. This study aimed to discuss all confirmed ZIKV cases captured under Malaysia ZIKV surveillance system after declaration of the PHEIC; and explore why Malaysia did not suffer a similar ZIKV outbreak as the other two countries.

METHODS

This was an observational study reviewing all confirmed ZIKV cases detected in Malaysia through the ZIKV clinical surveillance and Flavivirus laboratory surveillance between June 2015 and December 2017. All basic demographic characteristics, co-morbidities, clinical, laboratory and outcome data of the confirmed ZIKV cases were collected from the source documents.

RESULTS

Only eight out of 4043 cases tested positive for ZIKV infection during that period. The median age of infected patients was 48.6 years and majority was Chinese. Two of the subjects were pregnant. The median interval between the onset of disease and the first detection of ZIKV Ribonucleic Acid (RNA) in body fluid was 3 days. Six cases had ZIKV RNA detected in both serum and urine samples. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that isolates from the 7 cases of ZIKV infection came from two clusters, both of which were local circulating strains.

CONCLUSION

Despite similar ecological background characteristics, Malaysia was not as affected by the recent ZIKV outbreak compared to Brazil and Singapore. This could be related to pre-existing immunity against ZIKV in this population, which developed after the first introduction of the ZIKV in Malaysia decades ago. A serosurvey to determine the seroprevalence of ZIKV in Malaysia was carried out in 2017. The differences in circulating ZIKV strains could be another reason as to why Malaysia seemed to be protected from an outbreak.

Zika Virus as an Emerging Neuropathogen: Mechanisms of Neurovirulence and Neuro-Immune Interactions

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arbovirus of the genus Flaviviridae, which causes a febrile illness and has spread from across the Pacific to the Americas in a short timeframe. Convincing evidence has implicated the ZIKV to incident cases of neonatal microcephaly and a set of neurodevelopmental abnormalities referred to as the congenital Zika virus syndrome. In addition, emerging data points to an association with the ZIKV and the development of the so-called Guillain-Barre syndrome, an acute autoimmune polyneuropathy. Accumulating knowledge suggests that neurovirulent strains of the ZIKV have evolved from less pathogenic lineages of the virus. Nevertheless, mechanisms of neurovirulence and host-pathogen neuro-immune interactions remain incompletely elucidated. This review provides a critical discussion of genetic and structural alterations in the ZIKV which could have contributed to the emergence of neurovirulent strains. In addition, a mechanistic framework of neuro-immune mechanisms related to the emergence of neuropathology after ZIKV infection is discussed. Recent advances in knowledge point to avenues for the development of a putative vaccine as well as novel therapeutic strategies. Nevertheless, there are unique unmet challenges that need to be addressed in this regard. Finally, a research agenda is proposed.

Epidemiology and Clinical Characteristics of Zika Virus Infections Imported into Korea from March to October 2016

Zika is a re-emerging, mosquito-borne viral infection, which has been recently shown to cause microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. Since 2015 the number of infected patients has increased significantly in South America. The purpose of this study was to identify the epidemiologic and clinical characteristics of patients with Zika virus (ZIKV) infections in Korea. Patients who had visited areas of risk and tested positive in the ZIKV reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in blood, urine, or saliva specimens were included. The first Korean case of ZIKV infection was reported in March 2016, and 14 cases had been reported by October 2016. The median age of the patients was 34 years (19-64 years). Ten patients had been exposed in Southeast Asia and 4 in Latin America. Rash was the most common symptom (92.9%; 13/14), followed by myalgia (50.0%; 7/14), and arthralgia (28.6%, 4/14). There were no neurologic abnormalities and none of the patients was pregnant. Results of biochemical tests were normal. Positivity rates of RT-PCR for ZIKV in serum, urine, and saliva were 53.8%, 100.0%, and 83.3%, respectively in the first week of symptoms. In conclusion, 14 patients with ZIKV infections were reported in Korea by October 2016 and all of them had mild clinical symptoms.

The Antigenic Structure of Zika Virus and Its Relation to Other Flaviviruses: Implications for Infection and Immunoprophylaxis

Zika virus was discovered ∼70 years ago in Uganda and maintained a low profile as a human disease agent in Africa and Asia. Only recently has it caused explosive outbreaks in previously unaffected regions, first in Oceania and then in the Americas since 2015. Of special concern is the newly identified link between congenital malformations (especially microcephaly) and Zika virus infections during pregnancy. At present, it is unclear whether Zika virus changed its pathogenicity or whether the huge number of infections allowed the recognition of a previously cryptic pathogenic property. The purpose of this review is to discuss recent data on the molecular antigenic structure of Zika virus in the context of antibody-mediated neutralization and antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of infection, a phenomenon that has been implicated in the development of severe disease caused by the related dengue viruses. Emphasis is given to epitopes of antibodies that potently neutralize Zika virus and also to epitopes that provide antigenic links to other important human-pathogenic flaviviruses such as dengue, yellow fever, West Nile, Japanese encephalitis, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses. The antigenic cross talk between Zika and dengue viruses appears to be of special importance, since they cocirculate in many regions of endemicity and sequential infections are likely to occur frequently. New insights into the molecular antigenic structure of Zika virus and flaviviruses in general have provided the foundation for great progress made in developing Zika virus vaccines and antibodies for passive immunization.