Allocation of intensive care resources during an infectious disease outbreak: a rapid review to inform practice

Assessing the impact of vaccination and medical resource allocation on infectious disease outbreak management: a case study of COVID-19 in Taiyuan City

Introduction

Amidst an emerging infectious disease outbreak, the rational allocation of vaccines and medical resources is crucial for controlling the epidemic's progression.

Method

Analysing COVID-19 data in Taiyuan City from December 2022 to January 2023, this study constructed a S V 1 V 2 V 3 E I Q H R dynamics model to assess the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and resource allocation on epidemic trends.

Results

Vaccination significantly reduces infection rates, hospitalisations, and severe cases, while also curtailing strain on medical resources by reducing congestion periods. An early and sufficient reserve of medical resources can delay the onset of medical congestion, and with increased maximum capacity of medical resources, the congestion's end can be accelerated. Stronger resource allocation capabilities lead to earlier congestion resolution within a fixed total resource pool.

Discussion

Integrating vaccination and medical resource allocation can effectively reduce medical congestion duration and alleviate the epidemic's strain on medical resource capacity (CCMR).

Is It Possible to Allocate Life? Triage, Ageism, and Narrative Identity

Triage protocols can exclude older patients for the sake of effectiveness and this may be defended as the older have already had their fair share of life, which can mean fair amounts or complete lives. Nevertheless, if life is considered as a narrative, mentioning amounts might be nonsensical. Narratives have a quality of unity; so, life events are fragments whose meanings are dependent on the meaning of the whole. Thus, time units do not represent a reliable measure of the content of life. In addition, people's experience is different from the external flow of time, making its significance relative. Moreover, to compare the completeness of lives qualitatively, it is necessary to have a common cultural understanding, which is improbable to agree on in a modern society. Therefore, basic assumptions of the accounts that refer to fair shares of lives are mistaken, and these accounts do not support age-based rationing.

Simulation of New York City's Ventilator Allocation Guideline During the Spring 2020 COVID-19 Surge

Importance

The spring 2020 surge of COVID-19 unprecedentedly strained ventilator supply in New York City, with many hospitals nearly exhausting available ventilators and subsequently seriously considering enacting crisis standards of care and implementing New York State Ventilator Allocation Guidelines (NYVAG). However, there is little evidence as to how NYVAG would perform if implemented.

Objectives

To evaluate the performance and potential improvement of NYVAG during a surge of patients with respect to the length of rationing, overall mortality, and worsening health disparities.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study included intubated patients in a single health system in New York City from March through July 2020. A total of 20 000 simulations were conducted of ventilator triage (10 000 following NYVAG and 10 000 following a proposed improved NYVAG) during a crisis period, defined as the point at which the prepandemic ventilator supply was 95% utilized.

Exposures

The NYVAG protocol for triage ventilators.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Comparison of observed survival rates with simulations of scenarios requiring NYVAG ventilator rationing.

Results

The total cohort included 1671 patients; of these, 674 intubated patients (mean [SD] age, 63.7 [13.8] years; 465 male [69.9%]) were included in the crisis period, with 571 (84.7%) testing positive for COVID-19. Simulated ventilator rationing occurred for 163.9 patients over 15.0 days, 44.4% (95% CI, 38.3%-50.0%) of whom would have survived if provided a ventilator while only 34.8% (95% CI, 28.5%-40.0%) of those newly intubated patients receiving a reallocated ventilator survived. While triage categorization at the time of intubation exhibited partial prognostic differentiation, 94.8% of all ventilator rationing occurred after a time trial. Within this subset, 43.1% were intubated for 7 or more days with a favorable SOFA score that had not improved. An estimated 60.6% of these patients would have survived if sustained on a ventilator. Revising triage subcategorization, proposed improved NYVAG, would have improved this alarming ventilator allocation inefficiency (25.3% [95% CI, 22.1%-28.4%] of those selected for ventilator rationing would have survived if provided a ventilator). NYVAG ventilator rationing did not exacerbate existing health disparities.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of intubated patients experiencing simulated ventilator rationing during the apex of the New York City COVID-19 2020 surge, NYVAG diverted ventilators from patients with a higher chance of survival to those with a lower chance of survival. Future efforts should be focused on triage subcategorization, which improved this triage inefficiency, and ventilator rationing after a time trial, when most ventilator rationing occurred.

Multidisciplinary considerations of fairness in medical AI: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology has been developed significantly in recent years. The fairness of medical AI is of great concern due to its direct relation to human life and health. This review aims to analyze the existing research literature on fairness in medical AI from the perspectives of computer science, medical science, and social science (including law and ethics). The objective of the review is to examine the similarities and differences in the understanding of fairness, explore influencing factors, and investigate potential measures to implement fairness in medical AI across English and Chinese literature.

METHODS

This study employed a scoping review methodology and selected the following databases: Web of Science, MEDLINE, Pubmed, OVID, CNKI, WANFANG Data, etc., for the fairness issues in medical AI through February 2023. The search was conducted using various keywords such as "artificial intelligence," "machine learning," "medical," "algorithm," "fairness," "decision-making," and "bias." The collected data were charted, synthesized, and subjected to descriptive and thematic analysis.

RESULTS

After reviewing 468 English papers and 356 Chinese papers, 53 and 42 were included in the final analysis. Our results show the three different disciplines all show significant differences in the research on the core issues. Data is the foundation that affects medical AI fairness in addition to algorithmic bias and human bias. Legal, ethical, and technological measures all promote the implementation of medical AI fairness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our review indicates a consensus regarding the importance of data fairness as the foundation for achieving fairness in medical AI across multidisciplinary perspectives. However, there are substantial discrepancies in core aspects such as the concept, influencing factors, and implementation measures of fairness in medical AI. Consequently, future research should facilitate interdisciplinary discussions to bridge the cognitive gaps between different fields and enhance the practical implementation of fairness in medical AI.

Public voices on tie-breaking criteria and underlying values in COVID-19 triage protocols to access critical care: a scoping review

Background

To reduce the arbitrariness in the allocation of rare resources in intensive care units (ICU) in the context of the pandemic, tiebreakers were considered in some COVID-19 triage algorithms. They were also contemplated to facilitate the tragic decisions of healthcare workers when faced with two patients with similar prognosis and only one ICU bed available. Little is known about the public's perspective on tiebreakers.

Objectives

To consolidate the available scientific literature on public consultations, particularly on tiebreakers and their underlying values. Also, to obtain an overview of the key arguments presented by the participating public and to identify potential gaps related to this topic.

Methods

The steps described by Arksey and O'Malley was the preferred method to our approach. Seven electronic databases were searched from January 2020 to April 2022, using keywords for each database: PubMed, Medline, EMBASE, Web of Science, PsycINFO, EBM reviews, CINAHL complete. We also searched in Google and Google Scholar, and in the references of the articles found. Our analysis was mainly qualitative. A thematic analysis was performed to consider the public's perspectives on tiebreakers and their underlying values, according to these studies.

Results

Of 477 publications found, 20 were selected. They carried out public consultations through various methods: surveys (80%), interviews (20%), deliberative processes (15%) and others (5%) in various countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Japan, Korea, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Thailand, United Kingdom, and United States. Five themes emerged from our analysis. The public favored the life cycle (50%) and absolute age (45%) as a tiebreaker. Other values considered important were reciprocity, solidarity, equality, instrumental value, patient merit, efficiency, and stewardship. Among the new findings were a preference for patient nationality and those affected by COVID-19.

Conclusions

There is a preference for favoring younger patients over older patients when there is a tie between similar patients, with a slight tendency to favor intergenerational equity. Variability was found in the public's perspectives on tiebreakers and their values. This variability was related to socio-cultural and religious factors. More studies are needed to understand the public's perspective on tiebreakers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s44250-023-00027-9.

[Coronavirus disease 2019 and frailty]

Der Verlauf der Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ist individuell sehr unterschiedlich. Menschen höheren Lebensalters mit Komorbiditäten sind gefährdeter, schwer zu erkranken oder zu versterben. Gebrechlichkeit (Frailty) ist ein wesentlicher Risikofaktor. Ein Fünftel der Bevölkerung in Mitteleuropa ist älter als 65 Jahre, 10–15 % davon sind als „frail“ anzusehen. Die Pandemie bringt die Gesundheitssysteme vieler Länder an deren Grenzen. Die Entscheidung, welche Patienten noch intensivmedizinisch behandelt werden, führt zu ethischen Diskussionen. Die Clinical Frailty Scale von Rockwood (CFS; CMAJ 173:489–495, 2005) wird in manchen Ländern eingesetzt, diese Entscheidungen zu unterstützen.

Von COVID-19 betroffene 80-jährige Patienten haben ein fast 3,6faches Sterblichkeitsrisiko, verglichen mit der Altersgruppe von 18 bis 49 Jahren. Das Risiko gebrechlicher Patienten (CFS-Scores 6–9) ist mehr als 3fach höher als von robusten (CFS-Scores 1–3). Ein CFS-Cut-off-Wert ≥ 6 korreliert mit der Mortalität von COVID-19-Patienten über 65 Jahre. Das mittel- und längerfristige Überleben ist auch mit dem Ausmaß von „Frailty“ vor der Erkrankung und weniger mit dem Schweregrad der COVID-19 assoziiert.

Besonders Patienten über 60 Jahre sind gefährdet, bei moderaten und schweren COVID-19-Verläufen rasch Muskelmasse zu verlieren. Patienten auf Intensive Care Units (ICU) verlieren innerhalb von 10 Tagen 20–30 % der Oberschenkelstreckmuskulaturmasse. Das Ausmaß der COVID-19-assoziierten Sarkopenie bestimmt wesentlich den Verlauf der Erkrankung und macht individuelle Rehabilitationsprogrammen erforderlich. Bis zu 50 % der hospitalisierten Patienten benötigen weitere Rehabilitation nach der Entlassung. Aerobes Training mit niedriger Intensität, kombiniert mit Krafttraining, sowie die Sicherstellung einer ausreichenden Energie- und Eiweißzufuhr sind unerlässlich.

How Common SOFA and Ventilator Time Trial Criteria Would Have Performed During the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Observational Simulated Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate how key aspects of New York State Ventilator Allocation Guidelines (NYSVAG)-Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score criteria and ventilator time trials -might perform with respect to the frequency of ventilator reallocation and survival to hospital discharge in a simulated cohort of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients.

METHODS

Single center retrospective observational and simulation cohort study of 884 critically ill COVID-19 patients undergoing ventilator allocation per NYSVAG.

RESULTS

In total, 742 patients (83.9%) would have had their ventilator reallocated during the 11-day observation period, 280 (37.7%) of whom would have otherwise survived to hospital discharge if provided with a ventilator. Only 65 (18.1%) of the observed surviving patients would have survived by NYSVAG. Extending ventilator time trials from 2 to 5 days resulted in a 49.2% increase in simulated survival to discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of a protracted respiratory pandemic, implementation of NYSVAG or similar protocols could lead to a high degree of ventilator reallocation, including withdrawal from patients who might otherwise survive. Longer ventilator time trials might lead to improved survival for COVID-19 patients given their protracted respiratory failure. Further studies are needed to understand the survival of patients receiving reallocated ventilators to determine whether implementation of NYSVAG would improve overall survival.

Exploring the Interpretation of COVID-19 Messaging on Older Adults’ Experiences of Vulnerability

Public health messages and societal discourse during the COVID-19 pandemic have consistently indicated a higher morbidity and mortality risk for older people, particularly those with multiple health conditions. Older adults’ interpretations of pandemic messaging can shape their perceived vulnerability and behaviours. This study examined their perspectives on COVID-19 messaging. Eighteen community-dwelling older adults residing in Manitoba (Canada) participated in semi-structured telephone interviews between July and August 2020, a period of low COVID-19 cases within the province. Inductive thematic analysis was used to identify key themes that described participants’ processes of information interpretation when consuming pandemic-related messages, their emotional responses to messaging and consequent vulnerability, and the impacts of messaging on their everyday lives. Understanding how older adults have construed COVID-19 and pandemic-related messages, and the subsequent impact on their daily behaviours, is the first step towards shaping societal discourse and sets the stage for examining the pandemic’s long-term effects.