Age and product dependent vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection and hospitalisation among adults in Norway: a national cohort study, July-November 2021

COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies in the Endemic Period: Lessons from Influenza

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly contagious zoonotic respiratory disease with many similarities to influenza. Effective vaccines are available for both; however, rapid viral evolution and waning immunity make them virtually impossible to eradicate with vaccines. Thus, the practical goal of vaccination is to reduce the incidence of serious illnesses and death. Three years after the introduction of COVID-19 vaccines, the optimal vaccination strategy in the endemic period remains elusive, and health authorities worldwide have begun to adopt various approaches. Herein, we propose a COVID-19 vaccination strategy based on the data available until early 2024 and discuss aspects that require further clarification for better decision making. Drawing from comparisons between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination strategies, our proposed COVID-19 vaccination strategy prioritizes high-risk groups, emphasizes seasonal administration aligned with influenza vaccination campaigns, and advocates the co-administration with influenza vaccines to increase coverage.

Comparative Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Among Older Adults: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis Using the GRADE Framework

INTRODUCTION

The mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 demonstrated high efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in phase 3 clinical trials, including among older adults. To inform coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine selection, this systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis assessed the comparative effectiveness of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 in older adults.

METHODS

We systematically searched for relevant studies reporting COVID-19 outcomes with mRNA vaccines in older adults aged ≥ 50 years by first cross-checking relevant published SLRs. Based on the cutoff date from a previous similar SLR, we then searched the WHO COVID-19 Research Database for relevant articles published between April 9, 2022, and June 2, 2023. Outcomes of interest were SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and COVID-19-related death following ≥ 2 vaccine doses. Random effects meta-analysis models were used to pool risk ratios (RRs) across studies. Heterogeneity was evaluated using chi-square testing. Evidence certainty was assessed per GRADE framework.

RESULTS

Twenty-four non-randomized real-world studies reporting clinical outcomes with mRNA vaccines in individuals aged ≥ 50 years were included in the meta-analysis. Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64‒0.80]), symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% CI 0.62‒0.83]), severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.67 [95% CI 0.57‒0.78]), and COVID-19-related hospitalization (RR 0.65 [95% CI 0.53‒0.79]) but not COVID-19-related death (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.64‒1.00]) compared with BNT162b2. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies for all outcomes (I2 > 75%) except death (I2 = 0%). Multiple subgroup and sensitivity analyses excluding specific studies generally demonstrated consistent results. Certainty of evidence across outcomes was rated as low (type 3) or very low (type 4), reflecting the lack of randomized controlled trial data.

CONCLUSION

Meta-analysis of 24 observational studies demonstrated significantly lower risk of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections and hospitalizations with the mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 vaccine in older adults aged ≥ 50 years.

Vaccine effectiveness in preventing deaths in people with severe acute respiratory syndrome due to COVID-19 in Blumenau, Brazil, 2021

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the vaccine effectiveness in preventing deaths attributed to severe acute respiratory syndrome due to COVID-19 (SARS/COVID-19) in adults and the elderly, in Blumenau, state of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2021.

this was a population-based study conducted among individuals aged 20 years and older hospitalized with SARS/COVID-19; each death due to SARS/COVID-19 was considered a "case", and every survivor was considered a "control"; the association between vaccination status and the outcome of "death" was estimated using logistic regression, and vaccine effectiveness was estimated as (1-OR)*100.

The study included 1,756 cases of SARS/COVID-19 (59.2% male, mean age of 56 years, 50.4% with elementary education, 68.4% with comorbidities and 39.1% in intensive care), of whom 398 died (cases) and 1,358 survived (controls); vaccine effectiveness was 74% and 85% (20-59 years old) and 72% and 75% (≥ 60 years old), respectively, for those who were partially vaccinated and fully vaccinated.

CONCLUSION

vaccines proved to be effective in reducing case fatality ratio due to SARS/COVID-19 in individuals ≥ 20 years old.

Covid-19 and influenza vaccine effectiveness against associated hospital admission and death among individuals over 65 years in Norway: A population-based cohort study, 3 October 2022 to 20 June 2023

BACKGROUND

Co-circulation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus can lead to double epidemics and increased pressure on health systems. To evaluate the effect of both vaccines, we estimated the adjusted vaccine effectiveness (aVE) of influenza and Covid-19 vaccines against related severe disease in the elderly population in Norway during the 2022/2023 season.

METHODS

In this population-based cohort study, we included data from the Emergency preparedness register for Covid-19 (Beredt C19) on all individuals ≥ 65 years living in Norway between 3 October 2022 and 20 June 2023. Using Cox-proportional hazard models, we estimated aVE of both influenza and Covid-19 vaccines (bivalent BA.1 and BA.4-5) against associated hospitalisation and death. Vaccine status was included as a time-varying covariate and all models were adjusted for potential confounders, including the other vaccine.

RESULTS

We identified 2,437 influenza-associated hospitalisations and 178 deaths, alongside 5,824 Covid-19-associated hospitalisations and 621 deaths. The aVE was highest in the first three months after receiving either vaccine. Against influenza-associated hospitalisation the aVE was 34 % (26 %-42 %) among 65-79-year-olds and 40 % (30 %-48 %) among ≥ 80-year-olds, and 6.6 % (-64 %-47 %) and 37 % (0.5 %-61 %) against influenza-associated death, respectively. The aVE against Covid-19-associated hospitalisation was 65 % (61 %-69 %) among 65-79-year-olds and 55 % (49 %-60 %) among ≥ 80-year-olds (compared to having received the vaccine ≥ 180 days ago). Similarly, the aVE against Covid-19-associated death was 68 % (48 %-80 %) and 78 % (65 %-86 %), respectively. For Covid-19 we show a reduction in aVE with time since dose.

CONCLUSION

Covid-19 and influenza vaccines reduced the risk of severe disease in the same high-risk population. Ensuring high uptake of both vaccines could thus limit the overall health care burden.

Frequency and risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Norway: a nation-wide study, February 2020 to January 2022

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates have been shown to vary depending on the circulating variant, vaccination status and background immunity, as well as the time interval used to identify reinfections. This study describes the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections in Norway using different time intervals and assesses potential factors that could impact the risk of reinfections during the different variant waves.

METHODS

We used linked individual-level data from national registries to conduct a retrospective cohort study including all cases with a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 from February 2020 to January 2022. Time intervals of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days between positive tests were used to define potential reinfections. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to assess the risk of reinfection in terms of variants adjusting for vaccination status, demographic factors, and underlying comorbidities.

RESULTS

The reinfection rate varied between 0.2%, 0.6% and 5.9% during the Alpha, Delta and early Omicron waves, respectively. In the multivariable model, younger age groups were associated with a higher risk of reinfection compared to older age groups, whereas vaccination was associated with protection against reinfection. Moreover, the risk of reinfection followed a pattern similar to risk of first infection. Individuals infected early in the pandemic had higher risk of reinfection than individuals infected in more recent waves.

CONCLUSIONS

Reinfections increased markedly during the Omicron wave. Younger individuals, and primary infections during earlier waves were associated with an increased reinfection risk compared to primary infections during more recent waves, whereas vaccination was a protective factor. Our results highlight the importance of age and post infection waning immunity and are relevant when evaluating vaccination polices.

Interim results from a phase I randomized, placebo-controlled trial of novel SARS-CoV-2 beta variant receptor-binding domain recombinant protein and mRNA vaccines as a 4th dose booster

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccination should ideally enhance protection against variants and minimise immune imprinting. This Phase I trial evaluated two vaccines targeting SARS-CoV-2 beta-variant receptor-binding domain (RBD): a recombinant dimeric RBD-human IgG1 Fc-fusion protein, and an mRNA encoding a membrane-anchored RBD.

METHODS

76 healthy adults aged 18-64 y, previously triple vaccinated with licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, were randomised to receive a 4th dose of either an adjuvanted (MF59®, CSL Seqirus) protein vaccine (5, 15 or 45 μg, N = 32), mRNA vaccine (10, 20, or 50 μg, N = 32), or placebo (saline, N = 12) at least 90 days after a 3rd boost vaccination or SARS-CoV-2 infection. Bleeds occurred on days 1 (prior to vaccination), 8, and 29.

CLINICALTRIALS

govNCT05272605.

FINDINGS

No vaccine-related serious or medically-attended adverse events occurred. The protein vaccine reactogenicity was mild, whereas the mRNA vaccine was moderately reactogenic at higher dose levels. Best anti-RBD antibody responses resulted from the higher doses of each vaccine. A similar pattern was seen with live virus neutralisation and surrogate, and pseudovirus neutralisation assays. Breadth of immune response was demonstrated against BA.5 and more recent omicron subvariants (XBB, XBB.1.5 and BQ.1.1). Binding antibody titres for both vaccines were comparable to those of a licensed bivalent mRNA vaccine. Both vaccines enhanced CD4+ and CD8+ T cell activation.

INTERPRETATION

There were no safety concerns and the reactogenicity profile was mild and similar to licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Both vaccines showed strong immune boosting against beta, ancestral and omicron strains.

FUNDING

Australian Government Medical Research Future Fund, and philanthropies Jack Ma Foundation and IFM investors.

Measuring vaccine protection when the population is mostly vaccinated

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to address limitations in assessing vaccine protection using the classical vaccine effectiveness (VE) measure, especially in contexts where a significant portion of the population is already vaccinated or infected.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

We propose using the adjusted number of cases (ANC) as a building block for deriving vaccine effectiveness measures. This approach accounts for biases arising from small and unrepresentative unvaccinated reference groups with incomplete data. We demonstrate the use of these measures for assessing the protection conferred by a booster dose against severe COVID-19 using data from Israel.

RESULTS

The use of ANC and the derived measures reveals a more comprehensive understanding of the complex immunity landscape compared to traditional VE measures. This approach enables meaningful comparisons between different vaccination categories and provides insights to inform policy decisions.

CONCLUSION

In situations with widespread vaccination and prior infections, traditional VE measures can be limited in their informative value. Using the ANC offers a more robust and insightful assessment of vaccine effectiveness. A demonstration of the evaluation of booster dose protection against severe COVID-19 in Israel underscores the importance of adopting complementary measures to guide public health strategies.

Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation in adults (≥ 20 years) during Alpha- and Delta-dominant circulation: I-MOVE-COVID-19 and VEBIS SARI VE networks, Europe, 2021

IntroductionTwo large multicentre European hospital networks have estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 since 2021.AimWe aimed to measure VE against PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 in hospitalised severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) patients ≥ 20 years, combining data from these networks during Alpha (March-June)- and Delta (June-December)-dominant periods, 2021.MethodsForty-six participating hospitals across 14 countries follow a similar generic protocol using the test-negative case-control design. We defined complete primary series vaccination (PSV) as two doses of a two-dose or one of a single-dose vaccine ≥ 14 days before onset.ResultsWe included 1,087 cases (538 controls) and 1,669 cases (1,442 controls) in the Alpha- and Delta-dominant periods, respectively. During the Alpha period, VE against hospitalisation with SARS-CoV2 for complete Comirnaty PSV was 85% (95% CI: 69-92) overall and 75% (95% CI: 42-90) in those aged ≥ 80 years. During the Delta period, among SARI patients ≥ 20 years with symptom onset ≥ 150 days from last PSV dose, VE for complete Comirnaty PSV was 54% (95% CI: 18-74). Among those receiving Comirnaty PSV and mRNA booster (any product) ≥ 150 days after last PSV dose, VE was 91% (95% CI: 57-98). In time-since-vaccination analysis, complete all-product PSV VE was > 90% in those with their last dose < 90 days before onset; ≥ 70% in those 90-179 days before onset.ConclusionsOur results from this EU multi-country hospital setting showed that VE for complete PSV alone was higher in the Alpha- than the Delta-dominant period, and addition of a first booster dose during the latter period increased VE to over 90%.

Monitoring COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death using electronic health registries in ≥65 years old population in six European countries, October 2021 to November 2022

BACKGROUND

Within the ECDC-VEBIS project, we prospectively monitored vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 hospitalisation and COVID-19-related death using electronic health registries (EHR), between October 2021 and November 2022, in community-dwelling residents aged 65-79 and ≥80 years in six European countries.

METHODS

EHR linkage was used to construct population cohorts in Belgium, Denmark, Luxembourg, Navarre (Spain), Norway and Portugal. Using a common protocol, for each outcome, VE was estimated monthly over 8-week follow-up periods, allowing 1 month-lag for data consolidation. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and VE = (1 - aHR) × 100%. Site-specific estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

For ≥80 years, considering unvaccinated as the reference, VE against COVID-19 hospitalisation decreased from 66.9% (95% CI: 60.1; 72.6) to 36.1% (95% CI: -27.3; 67.9) for the primary vaccination and from 95.6% (95% CI: 88.0; 98.4) to 67.7% (95% CI: 45.9; 80.8) for the first booster. Similar trends were observed for 65-79 years. The second booster VE against hospitalisation ranged between 82.0% (95% CI: 75.9; 87.0) and 83.9% (95% CI: 77.7; 88.4) for the ≥80 years and between 39.3% (95% CI: -3.9; 64.5) and 80.6% (95% CI: 67.2; 88.5) for 65-79 years. The first booster VE against COVID-19-related death declined over time for both age groups, while the second booster VE against death remained above 80% for the ≥80 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Successive vaccine boosters played a relevant role in maintaining protection against COVID-19 hospitalisation and death, in the context of decreasing VE over time. Multicountry data from EHR facilitate robust near-real-time VE monitoring in the EU/EEA and support public health decision-making.

Comparative effectiveness of heterologous third dose vaccine schedules against severe covid-19 during omicron predominance in Nordic countries: population based cohort analyses

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the comparative vaccine effectiveness of heterologous booster schedules (ie, three vaccine doses) compared with primary schedules (two vaccine doses) and with homologous mRNA vaccine booster schedules (three vaccine doses) during a period of omicron predominance.

DESIGN

Population based cohort analyses.

SETTING

Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden, 27 December 2020 to 31 December 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

All adults aged ≥18 years who had received at least a primary vaccination schedule of AZD1222 (Oxford-AstraZeneca) or monovalent SARS-CoV-2 wild type (ancestral) strain based mRNA vaccines BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna), in any combination.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome measure was country combined risks of covid-19 related hospital admission and death with covid-19 and additional outcomes of covid-19 related admission to an intensive care unit and SARS-CoV-2 infection. During a period of omicron predominance, these outcomes were compared in those who received a heterologous booster versus primary schedule (matched analyses) and versus those who received a homologous mRNA vaccine booster (weighted analyses). Follow-up was for 75 days from day 14 after the booster dose; comparative vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1-risk ratio.

RESULTS

Across the four Nordic countries, 1 086 418 participants had received a heterologous booster schedule of AZD1222+BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 and 2 505 093 had received a heterologous booster schedule of BNT162b2+mRNA-1273. Compared with the primary schedule only (two doses), the vaccine effectiveness of heterologous booster schedules comprising AZD1222+BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2+mRNA-1273 was 82.7% (95% confidence interval 77.1% to 88.2%) and 81.5% (78.9% to 84.2%) for covid-19 related hospital admission and 95.9% (91.6% to 100.0%) and 87.5% (82.5% to 92.6%) for death with covid-19, respectively. Homologous mRNA booster schedules were similarly associated with increased protection against covid-19 related hospital admission (≥76.5%) and death with covid-19 (≥84.1%) compared with previous primary course vaccination only. When a heterologous booster schedule was compared with the homologous booster schedule, vaccine effectiveness was 27.2% (3.7% to 50.6%) for AZD1222+BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273 and 23.3% (15.8% to 30.8%) for BNT162b2+mRNA-1273 schedules against covid-19 related hospital admission and 21.7% (-8.3% to 51.7%) and 18.4% (-15.7% to 52.5%) against death with covid-19, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Heterologous booster schedules are associated with increased protection against severe, omicron related covid-19 outcomes compared with primary course schedules and homologous booster schedules.

A cohort study reveals different dynamics of SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody formation after Comirnaty and Vaxzevria vaccination

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Disease Pandemic, caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has affected millions of people worldwide, prompting a collective effort from the global scientific community to develop a vaccine against it. This study purports to investigate the influence of factors such as sex, age, type of vaccination (Comirnaty, BNT162b2, Pfizer Inc. or Vaxzevria, ChAdOx1-S, Oxford/AstraZeneca), and time since vaccine administration on the process of antibody production. Both of them are based on the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein (S protein) to the body using different mechanisms (mRNA and recombinant adenovirus, respectively). S protein is responsible for host cell attachment and penetration via its receptor-binding domain (RBD domain). The level of anti-RBD IgG antibodies was tested with an ELISA-based immunodiagnostic assay in serum samples from a total of 1395 patients at 3 time points: before vaccination, after the first dose, and after the second dose. Our novel statistical model, the Generalized Additive Model, revealed variability in antibody production dynamics for both vaccines. Interestingly, no discernible variation in antibody levels between men and women was found. A nonlinear relationship between age and antibody production was observed, characterized by decreased antibody levels for people up to 30 and over 60 years of age, with a lack of correlation in the middle age range. Collectively, our findings further the understanding of the mechanism driving vaccine-induced immunity. Additionally, we propose the Generalized Additive Model as a standardized way of presenting data in similar research.

Selection Effects and COVID-19 Mortality Risk after Pfizer vs. Moderna Vaccination: Evidence from Linked Mortality and Vaccination Records

Prior research generally finds that the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) and Moderna (mRNA1273) COVID-19 vaccines provide similar protection against mortality, sometimes with a Moderna advantage due to slower waning. However, most comparisons do not address selection effects for those who are vaccinated and with which vaccine. We report evidence on large selection effects, and use a novel method to control for these effects. Instead of directly studying COVID-19 mortality, we study the COVID-19 excess mortality percentage (CEMP), defined as the COVID-19 deaths divided by non-COVID-19 natural deaths for the same population, converted to a percentage. The CEMP measure uses non-COVID-19 natural deaths to proxy for population health and control for selection effects. We report the relative mortality risk (RMR) for each vaccine relative to the unvaccinated population and to the other vaccine, using linked mortality and vaccination records for all adults in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, from 1 April 2021 through 30 June 2022. For two-dose vaccinees aged 60+, RMRs for Pfizer vaccinees were consistently over twice those for Moderna, and averaged 248% of Moderna (95% CI = 175%,353%). In the Omicron period, Pfizer RMR was 57% versus 23% for Moderna. Both vaccines demonstrated waning of two-dose effectiveness over time, especially for ages 60+. For booster recipients, the Pfizer-Moderna gap is much smaller and statistically insignificant. A possible explanation for the Moderna advantage for older persons is the higher Moderna dose of 100 μg, versus 30 μg for Pfizer. Younger persons (aged 18-59) were well-protected against death by two doses of either vaccine, and highly protected by three doses (no deaths among over 100,000 vaccinees). These results support the importance of a booster dose for ages 60+, especially for Pfizer recipients. They suggest, but do not prove, that a larger vaccine dose may be appropriate for older persons than for younger persons.

Estimated vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron infections among health care workers and the general adult population in Norway, August 2021 - January 2022

BACKGROUND

Health care workers (HCW) have a higher exposure to SARS-CoV-2 virus than other professionals and to protect both HCW and patients, HCW have been prioritized for vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in many countries. Estimating the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness among HCW is important to provide recommendations to protect risk groups.

METHODS

We estimated vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections using Cox proportional hazard models among HCW with comparisons in the general population, from 1 August 2021 to 28 January 2022. Vaccine status is specified as a time-varying covariate and all models incorporated explicit time and were adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities, county of residence, country of birth, and living conditions. Data from the adult Norwegian population (aged 18-67 years) and HCW workplace data (as registered 1 January 2021) were collated from the National Preparedness Register for COVID-19 (Beredt C19).

RESULTS

Vaccine effectiveness was higher for Delta than for the Omicron variant in HCW (71 % compared to 19 %) as well as in non-HCW (69 % compared to -32 %). For the Omicron variant a 3rd dose provides significantly better protection against infection than 2 doses in both HCW (33 %) and non-HCW (10 %). Further, HCW seem to have better vaccine effectiveness than non-HCW for the Omicron, but not for the Delta variant.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccine effectiveness were comparable between HCW and non-HCW for the delta variant, but significantly higher in HCW than non-HCW for the omicron variant. Both HCW and non-HCW got increased protection from a third dose.

Evaluation of Waning of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine-Induced Immunity: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Estimates of the rate of waning of vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19 are key to assess population levels of protection and future needs for booster doses to face the resurgence of epidemic waves.

Objective

To quantify the progressive waning of VE associated with the Delta and Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2 by number of received doses.

Data Sources

PubMed and Web of Science were searched from the databases' inception to October 19, 2022, as well as reference lists of eligible articles. Preprints were included.

Study Selection

Selected studies for this systematic review and meta-analysis were original articles reporting estimates of VE over time against laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic disease.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Estimates of VE at different time points from vaccination were retrieved from original studies. A secondary data analysis was performed to project VE at any time from last dose administration, improving the comparability across different studies and between the 2 considered variants. Pooled estimates were obtained from random-effects meta-analysis.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes were VE against laboratory-confirmed Omicron or Delta infection and symptomatic disease and half-life and waning rate associated with vaccine-induced protection.

Results

A total of 799 original articles and 149 reviews published in peer-reviewed journals and 35 preprints were identified. Of these, 40 studies were included in the analysis. Pooled estimates of VE of a primary vaccination cycle against laboratory-confirmed Omicron infection and symptomatic disease were both lower than 20% at 6 months from last dose administration. Booster doses restored VE to levels comparable to those acquired soon after the administration of the primary cycle. However, 9 months after booster administration, VE against Omicron was lower than 30% against laboratory-confirmed infection and symptomatic disease. The half-life of VE against symptomatic infection was estimated to be 87 days (95% CI, 67-129 days) for Omicron compared with 316 days (95% CI, 240-470 days) for Delta. Similar waning rates of VE were found for different age segments of the population.

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings suggest that the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against laboratory-confirmed Omicron or Delta infection and symptomatic disease rapidly wanes over time after the primary vaccination cycle and booster dose. These results can inform the design of appropriate targets and timing for future vaccination programs.

Long-term effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against infections, hospitalisations, and mortality in adults: findings from a rapid living systematic evidence synthesis and meta-analysis up to December, 2022

BACKGROUND

Synthesising evidence on the long-term vaccine effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech], mRNA-1273 [Moderna], ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 [AZD1222; Oxford-AstraZeneca], and Ad26.COV2.S [Janssen]) against infections, hospitalisations, and mortality is crucial to making evidence-based pandemic policy decisions.

METHODS

In this rapid living systematic evidence synthesis and meta-analysis, we searched EMBASE and the US National Institutes of Health's iSearch COVID-19 Portfolio, supplemented by manual searches of COVID-19-specific sources, until Dec 1, 2022, for studies that reported vaccine effectiveness immediately and at least 112 days after a primary vaccine series or at least 84 days after a booster dose. Single reviewers assessed titles, abstracts, and full-text articles, and extracted data, with a second reviewer verifying included studies. The primary outcomes were vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalisations, and mortality, which were assessed using three-level meta-analytic models. This study is registered with the National Collaborating Centre for Methods and Tools, review 473.

FINDINGS

We screened 16 696 records at the title and abstract level, appraised 832 (5·0%) full texts, and initially included 73 (0·4%) studies. Of these, we excluded five (7%) studies because of critical risk of bias, leaving 68 (93%) studies that were extracted for analysis. For infections caused by any SARS-CoV-2 strain, vaccine effectiveness for the primary series reduced from 83% (95% CI 80-86) at baseline (14-42 days) to 62% (53-69) by 112-139 days. Vaccine effectiveness at baseline was 92% (88-94) for hospitalisations and 91% (85-95) for mortality, and reduced to 79% (65-87) at 224-251 days for hospitalisations and 86% (73-93) at 168-195 days for mortality. Estimated vaccine effectiveness was lower for the omicron variant for infections, hospitalisations, and mortality at baseline compared with that of other variants, but subsequent reductions occurred at a similar rate across variants. For booster doses, which covered mostly omicron studies, vaccine effectiveness at baseline was 70% (56-80) against infections and 89% (82-93) against hospitalisations, and reduced to 43% (14-62) against infections and 71% (51-83) against hospitalisations at 112 days or later. Not enough studies were available to report on booster vaccine effectiveness against mortality.

INTERPRETATION

Our analyses indicate that vaccine effectiveness generally decreases over time against SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospitalisations, and mortality. The baseline vaccine effectiveness levels for the omicron variant were notably lower than for other variants. Therefore, other preventive measures (eg, face-mask wearing and physical distancing) might be necessary to manage the pandemic in the long term.

FUNDING

Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Public Health Agency of Canada.

Understanding COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness against Death Using a Novel Measure: COVID Excess Mortality Percentage

COVID-19 vaccines have saved millions of lives; however, understanding the long-term effectiveness of these vaccines is imperative to developing recommendations for booster doses and other precautions. Comparisons of mortality rates between more and less vaccinated groups may be misleading due to selection bias, as these groups may differ in underlying health status. We studied all adult deaths during the period of 1 April 2021-30 June 2022 in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, linked to vaccination records, and we used mortality from other natural causes to proxy for underlying health. We report relative COVID-19 mortality risk (RMR) for those vaccinated with two and three doses versus the unvaccinated, using a novel outcome measure that controls for selection effects. This measure, COVID Excess Mortality Percentage (CEMP), uses the non-COVID natural mortality rate (Non-COVID-NMR) as a measure of population risk of COVID mortality without vaccination. We validate this measure during the pre-vaccine period (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.97) and demonstrate that selection effects are large, with non-COVID-NMRs for two-dose vaccinees often less than half those for the unvaccinated, and non-COVID NMRs often still lower for three-dose (booster) recipients. Progressive waning of two-dose effectiveness is observed, with an RMR of 10.6% for two-dose vaccinees aged 60+ versus the unvaccinated during April-June 2021, rising steadily to 36.2% during the Omicron period (January-June, 2022). A booster dose reduced RMR to 9.5% and 10.8% for ages 60+ during the two periods when boosters were available (October-December, 2021; January-June, 2022). Boosters thus provide important additional protection against mortality.

Effectiveness of full (booster) COVID-19 vaccination against severe outcomes and work absenteeism in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the Delta and Omicron waves in Greece

AIM

We estimated vaccine effectiveness (VE) of full (booster) vaccination against severe outcomes in hospitalized COVID-19 patients during the Delta and Omicron waves.

METHODS

The study extended from November 15, 2021 to April 17, 2022. Full vaccination was defined as a primary vaccination plus a booster ≥ 6 months later.

RESULTS

We studied 1138 patients (mean age: 66.6 years), of whom 826 (72.6 %) had > 1 comorbidity. Of the 1138 patients, 75 (6.6 %) were admitted to intensive care unit (ICU), 64 (5.6 %) received mechanical ventilation, and 172 (15.1 %) died. There were 386 (33.9 %) fully vaccinated, 172 (15.1 %) partially vaccinated, and 580 (51 %) unvaccinated patients. Unvaccinated patients were absent from work for longer periods compared to partially or fully vaccinated patients (mean absence of 20.1 days versus 12.3 and 17.3 days, respectively; p-value = 0.03). Compared to unvaccinated patients, fully vaccinated patients were less likely to be admitted to ICU [adjusted relative risk (ARR: 0.49; 95 % CI: 0.29-0.84)], mechanically ventilated (ARR: 0.43; 95 % CI: 0.23-0.80), and die (ARR: 0.57; 95 % CI: 0.42-0.78), while they were hospitalized for significantly shorter periods (ARR: 0.79; 95 % CI: 0.70-0.89). The adjusted full VE was 48.8 % (95 % CI: 42.7 %-54.9 %) against ICU admission, 55.4 % (95 % CI: 52.0 %-56.2 %) against mechanical ventilation, and 22.6 % (95 % CI: 7.4 %-34.8 %) against death. For patients with ≥ 3 comorbidities, VE was 56.2 % (95 % CI: 43.9 %-67.1 %) against ICU admission, 60.2 % (95 % CI: 53.7 %-65.4 %) against mechanical ventilation, and 43.9 % (95 % CI: 19.9 %-59.7 %) against death.

CONCLUSIONS

Full (booster) COVID-19 vaccination conferred protection against severe outcomes, prolonged hospitalization, and prolonged work absenteeism.

Timing of last COVID-19 vaccine dose and SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections in fully (boosted) vaccinated healthcare personnel

AIM

To estimate the incidence, timing and severity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated healthcare personnel (HCP).

METHODS

In total, 6496 fully vaccinated HCP were analysed prospectively from 15^th November 2021 to 17^th April 2022. Full coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination was defined as a complete primary vaccination series followed by a booster dose at least 6 months later.

RESULTS

Overall, 1845 SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections occurred (28.4 episodes per 100 HCP), of which 1493 (80.9%) were COVID-19 cases and 352 (19.1%) were asymptomatic infections. Of the 1493 HCP with COVID-19, four were hospitalized for 3-6 days (hospitalization rate among HCP with COVID-19: 0.3%). No intubations or deaths occurred. SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections occurred at a mean of 16.2 weeks after the last vaccine dose. Multi-variable regression analyses showed that among the 1845 HCP with a breakthrough infection, the administration of a COVID-19 vaccine dose ≥16.2 weeks before the infection was associated with increased likelihood of developing COVID-19 rather than asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection [odds ratio (OR) 1.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-2.46; P=0.045] compared with administering a vaccine dose later. The likelihood of developing COVID-19 compared with asymptomatic infection increased by 7% weekly after the last COVID-19 vaccine dose (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.03-1.11; P=0.001).

CONCLUSION

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections are common among fully (boosted) vaccinated HCP. However, full COVID-19 vaccination offered considerable protection against hospitalization. These findings may contribute to defining the optimal timing for booster vaccinations. More efficient COVID-19 vaccines that will also confer protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection are needed urgently.

Considerations in Understanding Vaccine Effectiveness

Although vaccine effectiveness reports are essential to assessing policies on SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, several factors can affect our interpretation of the results. These include the waning of antibodies, the prevailing viral variants at the time of the study, and COVID-19 disease prevalence in the population. Disease prevalence significantly impacts absolute risk reduction and could skew expected efficacy when increased disease prevalence inflates the absolute risk reduction in the face of a constant relative risk reduction. These factors must be considered in the interpretation of vaccine effectiveness to better understand how vaccines can improve disease prevention among the population. We highlight the impact of various factors on vaccine effectiveness.

Effectiveness of mRNA Booster Vaccination Against Mild, Moderate, and Severe COVID-19 Caused by the Omicron Variant in a Large, Population-Based, Norwegian Cohort

BACKGROUND

Understanding how booster vaccination can prevent moderate and severe illness without hospitalization is crucial to evaluate the full advantage of mRNA boosters.

METHODS

We followed 85 801 participants (aged 31-81 years) in 2 large population-based cohorts during the Omicron BA.1/2 wave. Information on home testing, PCR testing, and symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was extracted from biweekly questionnaires covering the period 12 January 2022 to 7 April 2022. Vaccination status and data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection were obtained from national registries. Cox regression was used to estimate the effectiveness of booster vaccination compared to receipt of 2-dose primary series >130 days previously.

RESULTS

The effectiveness of booster vaccination increased with increasing severity of COVID-19 and decreased with time since booster vaccination. The effectiveness against severe COVID-19 was reduced from 80.9% shortly after booster vaccination to 63.4% in the period >90 days after vaccination. There was hardly any effect against mild COVID-19. The effectiveness tended to be lower among subjects aged ≥60 years than those aged <50 years.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first population-based study to evaluate booster effectiveness against self-reported mild, moderate, and severe COVID-19. Our findings contribute valuable information on duration of protection and thus timing of additional booster vaccinations.

Waning of vaccine effectiveness against moderate and severe covid-19 among adults in the US from the VISION network: test negative, case-control study

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against moderate and severe covid-19 in adults by time since second, third, or fourth doses, and by age and immunocompromised status.

DESIGN

Test negative case-control study.

SETTING

Hospitals, emergency departments, and urgent care clinics in 10 US states, 17 January 2021 to 12 July 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

893 461 adults (≥18 years) admitted to one of 261 hospitals or to one of 272 emergency department or 119 urgent care centers for covid-like illness tested for SARS-CoV-2.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The main outcome was waning of vaccine effectiveness with BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine during the omicron and delta periods, and the period before delta was dominant using logistic regression conditioned on calendar week and geographic area while adjusting for age, race, ethnicity, local virus circulation, immunocompromised status, and likelihood of being vaccinated.

RESULTS

45 903 people admitted to hospital with covid-19 (cases) were compared with 213 103 people with covid-like illness who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2 (controls), and 103 287 people admitted to emergency department or urgent care with covid-19 (cases) were compared with 531 168 people with covid-like illness who tested negative for SARS-CoV-2. In the omicron period, vaccine effectiveness against covid-19 requiring admission to hospital was 89% (95% confidence interval 88% to 90%) within two months after dose 3 but waned to 66% (63% to 68%) by four to five months. Vaccine effectiveness of three doses against emergency department or urgent care visits was 83% (82% to 84%) initially but waned to 46% (44% to 49%) by four to five months. Waning was evident in all subgroups, including young adults and individuals who were not immunocompromised; although waning was morein people who were immunocompromised. Vaccine effectiveness increased among most groups after a fourth dose in whom this booster was recommended.

CONCLUSIONS

Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against moderate and severe covid-19 waned with time after vaccination. The findings support recommendations for a booster dose after a primary series and consideration of additional booster doses.