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Waseel F, Streftaris G, Rudrusamy B, Dass SC. Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach. Infect Dis Model 2024; 9:527-556. [PMID: 38525308 PMCID: PMC10958481 DOI: 10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/26/2023] [Revised: 02/23/2024] [Accepted: 02/23/2024] [Indexed: 03/26/2024] Open
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. The primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination policy and assess its impact on controlling COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia using a Bayesian data-driven approach, concentrating on the year 2021. We employ a compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) model, incorporating a time-varying transmission rate and a data-driven method for its estimation through an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach. While no vaccine guarantees total immunity against the disease, and vaccine immunity wanes over time, it is critical to include and accurately estimate vaccine efficacy, as well as a constant vaccine immunity decay or wane factor, to better simulate the dynamics of vaccine-induced protection over time. Based on the distribution and effectiveness of vaccines, we integrated a data-driven estimation of vaccine efficacy, calculated at 75% for Malaysia, underscoring the model's realism and relevance to the specific context of the country. The Bayesian inference framework is used to assimilate various data sources and account for underlying uncertainties in model parameters. The model is fitted to real-world data from Malaysia to analyze disease spread trends and evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed vaccination policy. Our findings reveal that this distinct vaccination policy, which emphasizes an accelerated vaccination rate during the initial stages of the program, is highly effective in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and substantially reducing the pandemic peak and new infections. The study found that vaccinating 57-66% of the population (as opposed to 76% in the real data) with a better vaccination policy such as proposed here is able to significantly reduce the number of new infections and ultimately reduce the costs associated with new infections. The study contributes to the development of a robust and informative representation of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination, offering valuable insights for policymakers on the potential benefits and limitations of different vaccination policies, particularly highlighting the importance of a well-planned and efficient vaccination rollout strategy. While the methodology used in this study is specifically applied to national data from Malaysia, its successful application to local regions within Malaysia, such as Selangor and Johor, indicates its adaptability and potential for broader application. This demonstrates the model's adaptability for policy assessment and improvement across various demographic and epidemiological landscapes, implying its usefulness for similar datasets from various geographical regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Farhad Waseel
- School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, Putrajaya, Malaysia
- Faculty of Mathematics, Kabul University, Kabul, Afghanistan
| | - George Streftaris
- School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
- Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, United Kingdom
| | - Bhuvendhraa Rudrusamy
- School of Engineering and Physical Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, Putrajaya, Malaysia
| | - Sarat C. Dass
- School of Mathematical and Computer Sciences, Heriot-Watt University Malaysia, Putrajaya, Malaysia
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Luvira V, Pitisuttithum P. Effect of homologous or heterologous vaccine booster over two initial doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccine. Expert Rev Vaccines 2024; 23:283-293. [PMID: 38369699 DOI: 10.1080/14760584.2024.2320861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/06/2023] [Accepted: 02/15/2024] [Indexed: 02/20/2024]
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Inactivated vaccines were delivered to low- and middle-income countries during the early pandemics of COVID-19. Currently, more than 10 inactivated COVID-19 vaccines have been developed. Most inactivated vaccines contain an inactivated whole-cell index SARS-CoV-2 strain that is adjuvant. Whole virions inactivated with aluminum hydroxide vaccines were among the most commonly used. However, with the emerging of COVID-19 variants and waning of the immunity of two doses of after 3 months, WHO and many local governments have recommended the booster-dose program especially with heterologous platform vaccine. AREA COVERED This review was conducted through a literature search of the MEDLINE database to identify articles published from 2020 to 2023 covered the inactivated COVID-19 vaccines primary series with homologous and heterologous booster focusing on safety, immunogenicity, efficacy, and effectiveness. EXPERT OPINION The inactivated vaccines, especially whole virion inactivated in aluminum hydroxide appeared to be safe and had good priming effects. Immune responses generated after one dose of heterologous boost were high and able to preventing severity of disease and symptomatic infection. A new approach to inactivated vaccine has been developed using inactivating recombinant vector virus-NDV-HXP-S vaccine.
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Affiliation(s)
- Viravarn Luvira
- Vaccine Trial Centre, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
| | - Punnee Pitisuttithum
- Vaccine Trial Centre, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
- Department of Clinical Tropical Medicine, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
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Ye W, Li K, Zhao Z, Wu S, Qu H, Guo Y, Abudunaibi B, Chen W, Cai S, Chen C, Lin J, Xie Z, Zhan M, Ou J, Deng Y, Chen T, Zheng K. Inactivated vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 in Fujian, China during the Omicron BA.2 outbreak. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1269194. [PMID: 38162626 PMCID: PMC10757624 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1269194] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/29/2023] [Accepted: 11/10/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Objective More than 90% of the Chinese population have completed 2 doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccines in Mainland China. However, after China government abandoned strict control measures, many breakthrough infections appeared, and vaccine effectiveness against Omicron BA.2 infection was uncertain. This study aims to investigate the real-world effectiveness of widely used inactivated vaccines during the wave of Omicron variants. Methods Test-negative case-control study was conducted in this study to analyze the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic disease caused by the Omicron variant (BA.2) in Fujian, China. Conditional logistic regression was selected to estimate the vaccine effectiveness. Results The study found the vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic COVID-19 is 32.46% (95% CI, 8.08% to 50.37%) at 2 to 8 weeks, and 27.05% (95% CI, 1.23% to 46.12%) at 12 to 24 weeks after receiving booster doses of the inactivated vaccine. Notably, the 3-17 years group had higher vaccine effectiveness after 2 doses than the 18-64 years and over 65 years groups who received booster doses. Conclusion Inactivated vaccines alone may not offer sufficient protection for all age groups before the summer of 2022. To enhance protection, other types of vaccines or bivalent vaccines should be considered.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenjing Ye
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Kangguo Li
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Zeyu Zhao
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Shenggen Wu
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Huimin Qu
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Yichao Guo
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Buasiyamu Abudunaibi
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Wu Chen
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Shaojian Cai
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Cailin Chen
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Jiawei Lin
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Zhonghang Xie
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Meirong Zhan
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Jianming Ou
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Yanqin Deng
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
| | - Tianmu Chen
- State Key Laboratory of Vaccines for Infectious Diseases, Xiang an Biomedicine Laboratory, State Key Laboratory of Molecular Vaccinology and Molecular Diagnostics, National Innovation Platform for Industry-Education Integration in Vaccine Research, School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, China
| | - Kuicheng Zheng
- Institute of Emergency Response and Epidemic Management, Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou, China
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