Age-shifting in malaria incidence as a result of induced immunological deficit: a simulation study

Design and selection of drug properties to increase the public health impact of next-generation seasonal malaria chemoprevention: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. However, poor regimen adherence and the increased frequency of parasite mutations conferring sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance might threaten the effectiveness of SMC. Guidance is needed to de-risk the development of drug compounds for malaria prevention. We aimed to provide guidance for the early prioritisation of new and alternative SMC drugs and their target product profiles.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we combined an individual-based malaria transmission model that has explicit parasite growth with drug pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. We modelled SMC drug attributes for several possible modes of action, linked to their potential public health impact. Global sensitivity analyses identified trade-offs between drug elimination half-life, maximum parasite killing effect, and SMC coverage, and optimisation identified minimum requirements to maximise malaria burden reductions.

FINDINGS

Model predictions show that preventing infection for the entire period between SMC cycles is more important than drug curative efficacy for clinical disease effectiveness outcomes, but similarly important for impact on prevalence. When children younger than 5 years receive four SMC cycles with high levels of coverage (ie, 69% of children receiving all cycles), drug candidates require a duration of protection half-life higher than 23 days (elimination half-life >10 days) to achieve reductions higher than 75% in clinical incidence and severe disease (measured over the intervention period in the target population, compared with no intervention across a range of modelled scenarios). High coverage is crucial to achieve these targets, requiring more than 60% of children to receive all SMC cycles and more than 90% of children to receive at least one cycle regardless of the protection duration of the drug.

INTERPRETATION

Although efficacy is crucial for malaria prevalence reductions, chemoprevention development should select drug candidates for their duration of protection to maximise burden reductions, with the duration half-life determining cycle timing. Explicitly designing or selecting drug properties to increase community uptake is paramount.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

Molecular speciation of Plasmodium and multiplicity of P. falciparum infection in the Central region of Ghana

Malaria is endemic in the Central region of Ghana, however, the ecological and the seasonal variations of Plasmodium population structure and the intensity of malaria transmission in multiple sites in the region have not been explored. In this cross-sectional study, five districts in the region were involved. The districts were Agona Swedru, Assin Central and Gomoa East (representing the forest zone) and Abura-Asebu-Kwamankese and Cape Coast representing the coastal zone. Systematically, blood samples were collected from patients with malaria. The malaria status was screened with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kit (CareStart manufactured by Access Bio in Somerset, USA) and the positive ones confirmed microscopically. Approximately, 200 μL of blood was used to prepare four dried blood spots of 50μL from each microscopy positive sample. The Plasmodium genome was sequenced at the Malaria Genome Laboratory (MGL) of Wellcome Sanger Institute (WSI), Hinxton, UK. The single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the parasite mitochondria (PfMIT:270) core genome aided the species identification of Plasmodium. Subsequently, the complexity of infection (COI) was determined using the complexity of infection likelihood (COIL) computational analysis. In all, 566 microscopy positive samples were sequenced. Of this number, Plasmodium genome was detected in 522 (92.2%). However, whole genome sequencing was successful in 409/522 (72.3%) samples. In total, 516/522 (98.8%) of the samples contained P. falciparum mono-infection while the rest (1.2%) were either P. falciparum/P. ovale (Pf/Po) (n = 4, 0.8%) or P. falciparum/P. malariae/P. vivax (Pf/Pm/Pv) mixed-infection (n = 2, 0.4%). All the four Pf/Po infections were identified in samples from the Assin Central municipality whilst the two Pf/Pm/Pv triple infections were identified in Abura-Asebu-Kwamankese district and Cape Coast metropolis. Analysis of the 409 successfully sequenced genome yielded between 1-6 P. falciparum clones per individual infection. The overall mean COI was 1.78±0.92 (95% CI: 1.55-2.00). Among the study districts, the differences in the mean COI between ecological zones (p = 0.0681) and seasons (p = 0.8034) were not significant. However, regression analysis indicated that the transmission of malaria was more than twice among study participants aged 15-19 years (OR = 2.16, p = 0.017) and almost twice among participants aged over 60 years (OR = 1.91, p = 0.021) compared to participants between 20-59 years. Between genders, mean COI was similar except in Gomoa East where females recorded higher values. In conclusion, the study reported, for the first time, P. vivax in Ghana. Additionally, intense malaria transmission was found to be higher in the 15-19 and > 60 years, compared to other age groups. Therefore, active surveillance for P. vivax in Ghana and enhanced malaria control measures in the 15-19 year group years and those over 60 years are recommended.

Plasmodium falciparum Merozoite Surface Proteins Polymorphisms and Treatment Outcomes among Patients with Uncomplicated Malaria in Mwanza, Tanzania

Background. The severity of malaria infection depends on the host, parasite and environmental factors. Merozoite surface protein (msp) diversity determines transmission dynamics, P. falciparum immunity evasion, and pathogenesis or virulence. There is limited updated information on P. falciparum msp polymorphisms and their impact on artemether-lumefantrine treatment outcomes in Tanzania. Therefore, this study is aimed at examining msp genetic diversity and multiplicity of infection (MOI) among P. falciparum malaria patients. The influence of MOI on peripheral parasite clearance and adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) was also assessed. Methods. Parasite DNA was extracted from dried blood spots according to the manufacture’s protocol. Primary and nested PCR were performed. The PCR products for both the block 2 region of msp1 and the block 3 regions of msp2 genes and their specific allelic families were visualized on a 2.5% agarose gel. Results. The majority of the isolates, 58/102 (58.8%) for msp1 and 69/115 (60.1%) for msp2, harboured more than one parasite genotypes. For the msp1 gene, K1 was the predominant allele observed (75.64%), whereas RO33 occurred at the lowest frequency (43.6%). For the msp2 gene, the 3D7 allele was observed at a higher frequency (81.7%) than the FC27 allele (76.9%). The MOIs were 2.44 for msp1 and 2.27 for msp2 ( $p=0.669$ ). A significant correlation between age and multiplicity of infection (MOI) for msp1 or MOI for msp2 was not established in this study (rho = 0.074, $p=0.521$ and rho = −0.129, $p=0.261$ , respectively). Similarly, there was no positive correlation between parasite density at day 1 and MOI for both msp1 (rho = 0.113, $p=0.244$ ) and msp2 (rho = 0.043, $p=0.712$ ). The association between MOI and ACPR was not observed for either msp1 or mps2 ( $p=0.776$ and 0.296, respectively). Conclusions. This study reports high polyclonal infections, MOI and allelic frequencies for both msp1 and msp2. There was a lack of correlation between MOI and ACPR. However, a borderline significant correlation was observed between day 2 parasitaemia and MOI.

Effect of seasonal malaria chemoprevention in children between 5 and 9 years old in Kita and Bafoulabe districts, Mali

Background

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) has been widely expanded in Mali since its recommendation by the the World Health Organization in 2012. SMC guidelines currently target children between three months and five years of age. The SMC initiative has been largely successful. Children at least five years of age are not currently covered by current SMC guidelines but bear a considerable portion of the malaria burden. For this reason, this study sought to determine the feasibility and effectiveness for extending SMC to children aged 5–9 years.

Methods

A non-randomized, pre-post study was performed with an intervention district (Kita) and a comparison district (Bafoulabe). Children aged 3–59 months received SMC in both comparison districts, and children aged 60–120 months received SMC in the intervention district. SMC was delivered as sulfadoxine-pyriméthamine plus amodiaquine (SP-AQ) at monthly intervals from July to October in 2017 and 2018 during the historical transmission seasons. Baseline and endline cross-sectional surveys were conducted in both comparison districts. A total of 200 household surveys were conducted at each of the four monthly SMC cycles to determine adherence and tolerance to SMC in the intervention district.

Results

In July 2017, 633 children aged 60–120 months old were enrolled at the Kita and Bafoulabe study sites (n = 310 and n = 323, respectively). Parasitemia prevalence was similar in the intervention and comparison districts prior the SMC campaign (27.7% versus 21.7%, p = 0.07). Mild anemia was observed in 14.2% children in Kita and in 10.5% of children in Bafoulabé. At the Kita site, household surveys showed an SMC coverage rate of 89.1% with a response rate of 93.3% among child caregivers. The most common adverse event reported by parents was drowsiness (11.8%). One year following SMC implementation in the older age group in Kita, the coverage of three doses per round was 81.2%. Between the baseline and endline surveys, there was a reduction in parasitemia prevalence of 40% (OR = 0.60, CI: 0.41–0.89). Malaria molecular resistance was low in the intervention district following the intervention. A significant reduction in the prevalence of parasitemia in children 60 to 120 months was observed in the intervention district, but the prevalance of clinical malaria remained relatively constant.

Conclusion

This study shows that the prospect of extending SMC coverage to children between five and nine years old is encouraging. The reduction in the parasitemia could also warrant consideration for adapting SMC policy to account for extended malaria transmission seasons.

Malaria-associated risk factors among adolescents living in areas with persistent transmission in Senegal: a case-control study

BACKGROUND

In Senegal, malaria morbidity has sharply decreased over these past years. However, malaria epidemiology remains heterogeneous with persistent transmission in the southeastern part of the country and many cases among older children and adolescents. Little is known about factors associated with clinical malaria among this group. A better understanding of malaria transmission among this newly emerging vulnerable group will guide future interventions targeting this population group. This study aimed to identify factors associated with clinical malaria among adolescents in Senegal.

METHODS

A case-control study was conducted from November to December 2020 in four health posts located in the Saraya district. Cases were defined as adolescents (10-19 years) with an uncomplicated malaria episode with fever (temperature > 37.5°) or a history of fever and positive malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Controls were from the same age group, living in the neighbourhood of the case, presenting a negative RDT. A standardized, pre-tested questionnaire was administered to each study participant followed by a home visit to assess the participant's living conditions. Factors associated with clinical malaria were assessed using stepwise logistic regression analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 492 individuals were recruited (246 cases and 246 controls). In a multivariate analysis, factors associated with clinical malaria included non-use of long-lasting insecticidal net (LLIN) (aOR = 2.65; 95% CI 1.58-4.45), non-use of other preventive measures (aOR = 2.51; 95% CI 1.53-4.11) and indoor sleeping (aOR = 3.22; 95% CI 1.66-6.23). Protective factors included 15-19 years of age (aOR = 0.38; 95% CI 0.23-0.62), absence of stagnant water around the house (aOR = 0.27; 95% CI 0.16-0.44), having a female as head of household (aOR = 0.47; 95% CI 0.25-0.90), occupation such as apprentice (OR = 0.24; 95% CI 0.11-0.52).

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that environmental factors and non-use of malaria preventive measures are the main determinants of malaria transmission among adolescents living in areas with persistent malaria transmission in Senegal. Strategies aimed at improving disease awareness and access to healthcare interventions, such as LLINs, are needed to improve malaria control and prevention among these vulnerable groups.

Development of New Strategies for Malaria Chemoprophylaxis: From Monoclonal Antibodies to Long-Acting Injectable Drugs

Drug discovery for malaria has traditionally focused on orally available drugs that kill the abundant, parasitic blood stage. Recently, there has also been an interest in injectable medicines, in the form of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) with long-lasting plasma half-lives or long-lasting depot formulations of small molecules. These could act as prophylactic drugs, targeting the sporozoites and other earlier parasitic stages in the liver, when the parasites are less numerous, or as another intervention strategy targeting the formation of infectious gametocytes. Generally speaking, the development of mAbs is less risky (costly) than small-molecule drugs, and they have an excellent safety profile with few or no off-target effects. Therefore, populations who are the most vulnerable to malaria, i.e., pregnant women and young children would have access to such new treatments much faster than is presently the case for new antimalarials. An analysis of mAbs that were successfully developed for oncology illustrates some of the feasibility aspects, and their potential as affordable drugs in low- and middle-income countries.

Risk of Plasmodium falciparum infection in south-west Burkina Faso: potential impact of expanding eligibility for seasonal malaria chemoprevention

Burkina Faso has one of the highest malaria burdens in sub-Saharan Africa despite the mass deployment of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and use of seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) in children aged up to 5 years. Identification of risk factors for Plasmodium falciparum infection in rural Burkina Faso could help to identify and target malaria control measures. A cross-sectional survey of 1,199 children and adults was conducted during the peak malaria transmission season in the Cascades Region of south-west Burkina Faso in 2017. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for microscopically confirmed P. falciparum infection. A malaria transmission dynamic model was used to determine the impact on malaria cases averted of administering SMC to children aged 5-15 year old. P. falciparum prevalence was 32.8% in the study population. Children aged 5 to < 10 years old were at 3.74 times the odds (95% CI = 2.68-5.22, P < 0.001) and children aged 10 to 15 years old at 3.14 times the odds (95% CI = 1.20-8.21, P = 0.02) of P. falciparum infection compared to children aged less than 5 years old. Administration of SMC to children aged up to 10 years is predicted to avert an additional 57 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (9.4% reduction) and administration to children aged up to 15 years would avert an additional 89 malaria cases per 1000 population per year (14.6% reduction) in the Cascades Region, assuming current coverage of pyrethroid-piperonyl butoxide ITNs. Malaria infections were high in all age strata, although highest in children aged 5 to 15 years, despite roll out of core malaria control interventions. Given the burden of infection in school-age children, extension of the eligibility criteria for SMC could help reduce the burden of malaria in Burkina Faso and other countries in the region.

Insights from modelling malaria vaccines for policy decisions: the focus on RTS,S

Mathematical models are increasingly used to inform decisions throughout product development pathways from pre-clinical studies to country implementation of novel health interventions. This review illustrates the utility of simulation approaches by reviewing the literature on malaria vaccine modelling, with a focus on its link to the development of policy guidance for the first licensed product, RTS,S/AS01. The main contributions of modelling studies have been in inferring the mechanism of action and efficacy profile of RTS,S; to predicting the public health impact; and economic modelling mainly comprising cost-effectiveness analysis. The value of both product-specific and generic modelling of vaccines is highlighted.

Large age shifts in HIV-1 incidence patterns in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

HIV incidence has recently been in decline across some of the most intense epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa due to the scale-up of prevention and transmission-blocking treatments. Understanding whether declines in incidence are being felt equally across age and gender can help prioritize demographic groups where more effort is needed to lower transmission. We found that HIV incidence has declined disproportionately in the youngest men and women in a population with the highest HIV prevalence in the world. Shifts in the age distribution of risk may be the consequence of aging prevalence, prioritized prevention to younger individuals, and delays in age at infection from reduced overall force of infection. Our results highlight the need to expand age targets for HIV prevention.

Recent declines in adult HIV-1 incidence have followed the large-scale expansion of antiretroviral therapy and primary HIV prevention across high-burden communities of sub-Saharan Africa. Mathematical modeling suggests that HIV risk will decline disproportionately in younger adult age-groups as interventions scale, concentrating new HIV infections in those >age 25 over time. Yet, no empirical data exist to support these projections. We conducted a population-based cohort study over a 16-y period (2004 to 2019), spanning the early scale-up of antiretroviral therapy and voluntary medical male circumcision, to estimate changes in the age distribution of HIV incidence in a hyperepidemic region of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, where adult HIV incidence has recently declined. Median age of HIV seroconversion increased by 5.5 y in men and 3.0 y in women, and the age of peak HIV incidence increased by 5.0 y in men and 2.0 y in women. Incidence declined disproportionately among young men (64% in men 15 to 19, 68% in men 20 to 24, and 46% in men 25 to 29) and young women (44% in women 15 to 19, 24% in women 20 to 24) comparing periods pre- versus post-universal test and treat. Incidence was stable (<20% change) in women aged 30 to 39 and men aged 30 to 34. Age shifts in incidence occurred after 2012 and were observed earlier in men than in women. These results provide direct epidemiological evidence of the changing demographics of HIV risk in sub-Saharan Africa in the era of large-scale treatment and prevention. More attention is needed to address lagging incidence decline among older individuals.

Malaria Temporal Variation and Modelling Using Time-Series in Sussundenga District, Mozambique

Malaria is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Mozambique, which has the fifth highest prevalence in the world. Sussundenga District in Manica Province has documented high P. falciparum incidence at the local rural health center (RHC). This study's objective was to analyze the P. falciparum temporal variation and model its pattern in Sussundenga District, Mozambique. Data from weekly epidemiological bulletins (BES) was collected from 2015 to 2019 and a time-series analysis was applied. For temporal modeling, a Box-Jenkins method was used with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Over the study period, 372,498 cases of P. falciparum were recorded in Sussundenga. There were weekly and yearly variations in incidence overall (p < 0.001). Children under five years had decreased malaria tendency, while patients over five years had an increased tendency. The ARIMA (2,2,1) (1,1,1) 52 model presented the least Root Mean Square being the most appropriate for forecasting. The goodness of fit was 68.15% for malaria patients less than five years old and 73.2% for malaria patients over five years old. The findings indicate that cases are decreasing among individuals less than five years and are increasing slightly in those older than five years. The P. falciparum case occurrence has a weekly temporal pattern peaking during the wet season. Based on the spatial and temporal distribution using ARIMA modelling, more efficient strategies that target this seasonality can be implemented to reduce the overall malaria burden in both Sussundenga District and regionally.

Seroprevalence and Parasite Rates of Plasmodium malariae in a High Malaria Transmission Setting of Southern Nigeria

Although Plasmodium falciparum continues to be the main target for malaria elimination, other Plasmodium species persist in Africa. Their clinical diagnosis is uncommon, whereas rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), the most widely used malaria diagnostic tools, are only able to distinguish between P. falciparum and non-falciparum species, the latter as “pan-species.” Blood samples from health facilities were collected in southern Nigeria (Lagos and Calabar) in 2017 (October–December) and Calabar only in 2018 (October–November), and analyzed by several methods, namely, microscopy, quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), and peptide serology targeting candidate antigens (Plasmodium malariae apical membrane antigen, P. malariae lactose dehydrogenase, and P. malariae circumsporozoite surface protein). Both microscopy and qPCR diagnostic approaches detected comparable proportions (∼80%) of all RDT-positive samples infected with the dominant P. falciparum malaria parasite. However, higher proportions of non-falciparum species were detected by qPCR than microscopy, 10% against 3% infections for P. malariae and 3% against 0% for Plasmodium ovale, respectively. No Plasmodium vivax infection was detected. Infection rates for P. malariae varied between age-groups, with the highest rates in individuals aged > 5 years. Plasmodium malariae–specific seroprevalence rates fluctuated in those aged < 10 years but generally reached the peak around 20 years of age for all peptides. The heterogeneity and rates of these non-falciparum species call for increased specific diagnosis and targeting by elimination strategies.

Estimation of the primary, secondary and composite effects of malaria vaccines using data on multiple clinical malaria episodes

BACKGROUND

An effective malaria vaccine affects the risk of malaria directly, through the vaccine-induced immune response (the primary effect), and indirectly, as a consequence of reduced exposure to malaria infection and disease, leading to slower acquisition of natural immunity (the secondary effect). The beneficial primary effect may be offset by a negative secondary effect, resulting in a smaller or nil composite effect. Reports of malaria vaccine trials usually present only the composite effect. We aimed to demonstrate how the primary and secondary effects can also be estimated from trial data.

METHODS

We propose an enhancement to the conditional frailty model for the estimation of primary effect using data on disease episodes. We use the Andersen-Gill model to estimate the composite effect. We consider taking the ratio of the hazard ratios to estimate the secondary effect. We used directed acyclic graphs and data from a randomized trial of the RTS,S/AS02 malaria vaccine to illustrate the problems and solutions. Time-varying effects were estimated by partitioning the follow-up into four time periods.

RESULTS

The primary effect estimates from our proposed model were consistently stronger than the conditional frailty model in the existing literature. The primary effect of the vaccine was consistently stronger than the composite effect across all time periods. Both the primary and composite effects were stronger in the first three months, with hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) 0.62 (0.49-0.79) and 0.68 (0.54-0.84), respectively; the hazard ratios weakened over time. The secondary effect appeared mild, with hazard ratio 1.09 (1.02-1.16) in the first three months.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed analytic strategy facilitates a more comprehensive interpretation of trial data on multiple disease episodes. The RTS,S/AS02 vaccine had modest primary and secondary effects that waned over time, but the composite effect in preventing clinical malaria remained positive up to the end of the study.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00197041.

Diagnostic Performance of Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test and Microscopy Compared with PCR for Detection of Plasmodium falciparum Infections among Primary Schoolchildren in Kibiti District, Eastern Tanzania: An Area with Moderate Malaria Transmission

A substantial decline of malaria transmission intensity has been observed in sub-Saharan Africa over the past two decades and may affect the diagnostic performance of malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) and microscopy. Diagnostic performance of histidine-rich protein II (HRP-II)/pan-lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH)-based mRDT and microscopy was evaluated against polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for the diagnosis of Plasmodium falciparum infection among 316 primary schoolchildren in Kibiti district, in 2016. Polymerase chain reaction detected more cases of P. falciparum infection than mRDT or microscopy. Using PCR as reference, the sensitivity and specificity of mRDT were 75.9% (95% CI = 62.8-86.1) and 96.9% (95% CI = 94.0-98.7), respectively, whereas that of microscopy were 63.8% (95% CI = 50.1-76.0) and 95.7% (95% CI = 92.5-97.9), respectively. Polymerase chain reaction and other molecular methods should be considered for use in schools and other epidemiological surveys as supplement to mRDT or microscopy.

Anemia among Schoolchildren with Malaria and Soil-Transmitted Helminth Coinfections after Repeated Rounds of Mass Drug Administration in Muheza District, Tanzania

Coinfections with malaria and soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) has been common among school-aged children in Tanzania. However, after a countrywide scaling up of interventions for malaria and STHs, there are limited data on the prevalence of malaria-STH coinfections and its effect on anemia in schoolchildren in Tanzania. We assessed the distribution and risk factors for malaria, STHs, and malaria-STH coinfections, and its relation to anemia among 445 primary schoolchildren in Muheza district. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect demographic characteristics of the children. Malaria rapid diagnostic test (mRDT) was used to diagnose malaria infection. Soil-transmitted helminths were diagnosed using the Kato-Katz technique. Primary outcome was anemia, defined as hemoglobin concentration < 11 g/dL. Chi-square (χ²) or Fisher's exact tests, Kruskal-Wallis or t-test, and logistic models were used as appropriate. Overall, the prevalence of malaria, STHs, malaria-STH coinfection, and anemia were 18.4%, 6.1%, 1.6%, and 19.8%, respectively. Anemic children were more likely to have malaria (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 4.538, 95% CI: 2.189-9.409), whereas frequent use of bed nets was associated with reduced risk of malaria (aOR = 0.234, 95% CI: 0.130-0.42). On the other hand, not always using latrines and eating raw uncooked food increased the risk of STH infection. The prevalence of anemia was high and was associated with both malaria and malaria-STH infections, therefore calling for more integrated malaria-STH control approaches to target school-aged children.

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria delivered to primary schoolchildren provided effective individual protection in Jinja, Uganda: secondary outcomes of a cluster-randomized trial (START-IPT)

BACKGROUND

Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) of malaria is recommended as policy for certain high-risk populations, but not currently for schoolchildren. A cluster-randomized trial was conducted to evaluate the effect of IPT with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) on primary schoolchildren in Jinja, Uganda. Results of the impact of IPT of schoolchildren on community-level transmission have been reported previously. Here, secondary outcomes from a school-based survey are presented.

METHODS

Eighty-four clusters (one primary school plus 100 households) were randomized to intervention and control (1:1 ratio). Participants from intervention schools received monthly IPT with DP for up to 6 rounds (June-December 2014). At endline (November-December 2014), randomly selected children from all 84 schools were surveyed (13 per school) and thick blood smears were done. Those with fever or history of fever were tested with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for malaria. Haemoglobin was measured in every fifth participant. Outcome measures included prevalence of asexual parasites and gametocytes (by microscopy), and prevalence of anaemia. Prevalence outcomes were analysed using generalized linear Poisson models with log link function, incorporating a cluster-level random intercept and quantified using prevalence risk ratios.

RESULTS

Among 23,280 students listed on the 42 intervention school registers, 10,079 (43.3%) aged 5-20 years were enrolled into the IPT intervention and received at least one dose of DP; of these, 9286 (92.1%) received at least one full (3-day) course. In total, 1092 children were enrolled into the final school survey (546 per arm) and had a thick blood smear done; of these, 255 had haemoglobin measured (129 intervention, 126 control). Children in the intervention arm were less likely to have asexual parasites (9.2% intervention vs 44.1% control, adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 0.22 [95% CI 0.16-0.30] p < 0.001), gametocytes (3.1% intervention vs 9.5% control, aRR 0.34 [95% CI 0.20-0.56] p < 0.001), fever (20.2% intervention vs 56.2% control, aRR 0.35 [95% CI 0.25-0.50] p < 0.001), or symptomatic malaria (5.1% intervention vs 35.7% control, aRR 0.14 [95% CI 0.08-0.26] p < 0.001). Prevalence of anaemia and mean haemoglobin were similar in both study arms.

CONCLUSIONS

School-aged children are a major reservoir of malaria parasites. Delivering IPT to schoolchildren would benefit individual children and may reduce transmission. School-based IPT could help to intensify malaria control toward elimination, and should be considered for policies and programmes. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02009215), Registered 11 December 2013. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02009215.

Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level. One reason for the increasing popularity of such models is their potential to provide enhanced realism by allowing system-level behaviours to emerge as a consequence of accumulated individual-level interactions, as occurs in real populations.

METHODS

A systematic review of 90 articles published between 1998 and May 2018 was performed, characterizing agent-based models (ABMs) relevant to malaria transmission. The review provides an overview of approaches used to date, determines the advantages of these approaches, and proposes ideas for progressing the field.

RESULTS

The rationale for ABM use over other modelling approaches centres around three points: the need to accurately represent increased stochasticity in low-transmission settings; the benefits of high-resolution spatial simulations; and heterogeneities in drug and vaccine efficacies due to individual patient characteristics. The success of these approaches provides avenues for further exploration of agent-based techniques for modelling malaria transmission. Potential extensions include varying elimination strategies across spatial landscapes, extending the size of spatial models, incorporating human movement dynamics, and developing increasingly comprehensive parameter estimation and optimization techniques.

CONCLUSION

Collectively, the literature covers an extensive array of topics, including the full spectrum of transmission and intervention regimes. Bringing these elements together under a common framework may enhance knowledge of, and guide policies towards, malaria elimination. However, because of the diversity of available models, endorsing a standardized approach to ABM implementation may not be possible. Instead it is recommended that model frameworks be contextually appropriate and sufficiently described. One key recommendation is to develop enhanced parameter estimation and optimization techniques. Extensions of current techniques will provide the robust results required to enhance current elimination efforts.

The effect of case management and vector-control interventions on space-time patterns of malaria incidence in Uganda

BACKGROUND

Electronic reporting of routine health facility data in Uganda began with the adoption of the District Health Information Software System version 2 (DHIS2) in 2011. This has improved health facility reporting and overall data quality. In this study, the effects of case management with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and vector control interventions on space-time patterns of disease incidence were determined using DHIS2 data reported during 2013-2016.

METHODS

Bayesian spatio-temporal negative binomial models were fitted on district-aggregated monthly malaria cases, reported by two age groups, defined by a cut-off age of 5 years. The effects of interventions were adjusted for socio-economic and climatic factors. Spatial and temporal correlations were taken into account by assuming a conditional autoregressive and a first-order autoregressive AR(1) process on district and monthly specific random effects, respectively. Fourier trigonometric functions were incorporated in the models to take into account seasonal fluctuations in malaria transmission.

RESULTS

The temporal variation in incidence was similar in both age groups and depicted a steady decline up to February 2014, followed by an increase from March 2015 onwards. The trends were characterized by a strong bi-annual seasonal pattern with two peaks during May-July and September-December. Average monthly incidence in children < 5 years declined from 74.7 cases (95% CI 72.4-77.1) in 2013 to 49.4 (95% CI 42.9-55.8) per 1000 in 2015 and followed by an increase in 2016 of up to 51.3 (95% CI 42.9-55.8). In individuals ≥ 5 years, a decline in incidence from 2013 to 2015 was followed by an increase in 2016. A 100% increase in insecticide-treated nets (ITN) coverage was associated with a decline in incidence by 44% (95% BCI 28-59%). Similarly, a 100% increase in ACT coverage reduces incidence by 28% (95% BCI 11-45%) and 25% (95% BCI 20-28%) in children < 5 years and individuals ≥ 5 years, respectively. The ITN effect was not statistically important in older individuals. The space-time patterns of malaria incidence in children < 5 are similar to those of parasitaemia risk predicted from the malaria indicator survey of 2014-15.

CONCLUSION

The decline in malaria incidence highlights the effectiveness of vector-control interventions and case management with ACT in Uganda. This calls for optimizing and sustaining interventions to achieve universal coverage and curb reverses in malaria decline.

Impact of malaria interventions on child mortality in endemic African settings: comparison and alignment between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria model

Background

In malaria-endemic countries, malaria prevention and treatment are critical for child health. In the context of intervention scale-up and rapid changes in endemicity, projections of intervention impact and optimized program scale-up strategies need to take into account the consequent dynamics of transmission and immunity.

Methods

The new Spectrum-Malaria program planning tool was used to project health impacts of Insecticide-Treated mosquito Nets (ITNs) and effective management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CMU), among other interventions, on malaria infection prevalence, case incidence and mortality in children 0–4 years, 5–14 years of age and adults. Spectrum-Malaria uses statistical models fitted to simulations of the dynamic effects of increasing intervention coverage on these burdens as a function of baseline malaria endemicity, seasonality in transmission and malaria intervention coverage levels (estimated for years 2000 to 2015 by the World Health Organization and Malaria Atlas Project). Spectrum-Malaria projections of proportional reductions in under-five malaria mortality were compared with those of the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) for the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Zambia, for given (standardized) scenarios of ITN and/or CMU scale-up over 2016–2030.

Results

Proportional mortality reductions over the first two years following scale-up of ITNs from near-zero baselines to moderately higher coverages align well between LiST and Spectrum-Malaria —as expected since both models were fitted to cluster-randomized ITN trials in moderate-to-high-endemic settings with 2-year durations. For further scale-up from moderately high ITN coverage to near-universal coverage (as currently relevant for strategic planning for many countries), Spectrum-Malaria predicts smaller additional ITN impacts than LiST, reflecting progressive saturation. For CMU, especially in the longer term (over 2022–2030) and for lower-endemic settings (like Zambia), Spectrum-Malaria projects larger proportional impacts, reflecting onward dynamic effects not fully captured by LiST.

Conclusions

Spectrum-Malaria complements LiST by extending the scope of malaria interventions, program packages and health outcomes that can be evaluated for policy making and strategic planning within and beyond the perspective of child survival.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-017-4739-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mathematical Modelling to Guide Drug Development for Malaria Elimination

Mathematical models of the dynamics of a drug within the host are now frequently used to guide drug development. These generally focus on assessing the efficacy and duration of response to guide patient therapy. Increasingly, antimalarial drugs are used at the population level, to clear infections, provide chemoprevention, and to reduce onward transmission of infection. However, there is less clarity on the extent to which different drug properties are important for these different uses. In addition, the emergence of drug resistance poses new threats to longer-term use and highlights the need for rational drug development. Here, we argue that integrating within-host pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models with mathematical models for the population-level transmission of malaria is key to guiding optimal drug design to aid malaria elimination.

High Plasmodium falciparum longitudinal prevalence is associated with high multiclonality and reduced clinical malaria risk in a seasonal transmission area of Mali

The effects of persistent Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) infection and multiclonality on subsequent risk of clinical malaria have been reported, but the relationship between these 2 parameters and their relative impacts on the clinical outcome of infection are not understood. A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in a seasonal and high-transmission area of Mali, in which 500 subjects aged 1-65 years were followed for 1 year. Blood samples were collected every 2 weeks, and incident malaria cases were diagnosed and treated. Pf infection in each individual at each time point was assessed by species-specific nested-PCR, and Pf longitudinal prevalence per person (PfLP, proportion of Pf-positive samples over 1 year) was calculated. Multiclonality of Pf infection was measured using a 24-SNP DNA barcoding assay at 4 time-points (two in wet season, and two in dry season) over one year. PfLP was positively correlated with multiclonality at each time point (all r≥0.36; all P≤0.011). When host factors (e.g., age, gender), PfLP, and multiclonality (at the beginning of the transmission season) were analyzed together, only increasing age and high PfLP were associated with reduced clinical malaria occurrence or reduced number of malaria episodes (for both outcomes, P<0.001 for age, and P = 0.005 for PfLP). When age, PfLP and baseline Pf positivity were analyzed together, the effect of high PfLP remained significant even after adjusting for the other two factors (P = 0.001 for malaria occurrence and P<0.001 for number of episodes). In addition to host age and baseline Pf positivity, both of which have been reported as important modifiers of clinical malaria risk, our results demonstrate that persistent parasite carriage, but not baseline multiclonality, is associated with reduced risk of clinical disease in this population. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering repeated parasite exposure in future studies that evaluate clinical malaria risk.

Malaria intervention scale-up in Africa: effectiveness predictions for health programme planning tools, based on dynamic transmission modelling

Background

Scale-up of malaria prevention and treatment needs to continue to further important gains made in the past decade, but national strategies and budget allocations are not always evidence-based. Statistical models were developed summarizing dynamically simulated relations between increases in coverage and intervention impact, to inform a malaria module in the Spectrum health programme planning tool.

Methods

The dynamic Plasmodiumfalciparum transmission model OpenMalaria was used to simulate health effects of scale-up of insecticide-treated net (ITN) usage, indoor residual spraying (IRS), management of uncomplicated malaria cases (CM) and seasonal malaria chemoprophylaxis (SMC) over a 10-year horizon, over a range of settings with stable endemic malaria. Generalized linear regression models (GLMs) were used to summarize determinants of impact across a range of sub-Sahara African settings.

Results

Selected (best) GLMs explained 94–97 % of variation in simulated post-intervention parasite infection prevalence, 86–97 % of variation in case incidence (three age groups, three 3-year horizons), and 74–95 % of variation in malaria mortality. For any given effective population coverage, CM and ITNs were predicted to avert most prevalent infections, cases and deaths, with lower impacts for IRS, and impacts of SMC limited to young children reached. Proportional impacts were larger at lower endemicity, and (except for SMC) largest in low-endemic settings with little seasonality. Incremental health impacts for a given coverage increase started to diminish noticeably at above ~40 % coverage, while in high-endemic settings, CM and ITNs acted in synergy by lowering endemicity. Vector control and CM, by reducing endemicity and acquired immunity, entail a partial rebound in malaria mortality among people above 5 years of age from around 5–7 years following scale-up. SMC does not reduce endemicity, but slightly shifts malaria to older ages by reducing immunity in child cohorts reached.

Conclusion

Health improvements following malaria intervention scale-up vary with endemicity, seasonality, age and time. Statistical models can emulate epidemiological dynamics and inform strategic planning and target setting for malaria control.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1461-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Age, Spatial, and Temporal Variations in Hospital Admissions with Malaria in Kilifi County, Kenya: A 25-Year Longitudinal Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Encouraging progress has been seen with reductions in Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in some parts of Africa. Reduced transmission might lead to increasing susceptibility to malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity, and this has implications for ongoing control strategies.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We conducted a longitudinal observational study of children admitted to Kilifi County Hospital in Kenya and linked it to data on residence and insecticide-treated net (ITN) use. This included data from 69,104 children aged from 3 mo to 13 y admitted to Kilifi County Hospital between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2014. The variation in malaria slide positivity among admissions was examined in logistic regression models using the following predictors: location of the residence, calendar time, the child's age, ITN use, and the enhanced vegetation index (a proxy for soil moisture). The proportion of malaria slide-positive admissions declined from 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54-0.58) in 1998 to 0.07 (95% CI 0.06-0.08) in 2009 but then increased again through to 0.24 (95% CI 0.22-0.25) in 2014. Older children accounted for most of the increase after 2009 (0.035 [95% CI 0.030-0.040] among young children compared to 0.22 [95% CI 0.21-0.23] in older children). There was a nonlinear relationship between malaria risk and prevalence of ITN use within a 2 km radius of an admitted child's residence such that the predicted malaria positive fraction varied from ~0.4 to <0.1 as the prevalence of ITN use varied from 20% to 80%. In this observational analysis, we were unable to determine the cause of the decline in malaria between 1998 and 2009, which pre-dated the dramatic scale-up in ITN distribution and use.

CONCLUSION

Following a period of reduced transmission, a cohort of older children emerged who have increased susceptibility to malaria. Further reductions in malaria transmission are needed to mitigate the increasing burden among older children, and universal ITN coverage is a promising strategy to achieve this goal.

Incorporating Stage-Specific Drug Action into Pharmacological Modeling of Antimalarial Drug Treatment

Pharmacological modeling of antiparasitic treatment based on a drug's pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties plays an increasingly important role in identifying optimal drug dosing regimens and predicting their potential impact on control and elimination programs. Conventional modeling of treatment relies on methods that do not distinguish between parasites at different developmental stages. This is problematic for malaria parasites, as their sensitivity to drugs varies substantially during their 48-h developmental cycle. We investigated four drug types (short or long half-lives with or without stage-specific killing) to quantify the accuracy of the standard methodology. The treatment dynamics of three drug types were well characterized with standard modeling. The exception were short-half-life drugs with stage-specific killing (i.e., artemisinins) because, depending on time of treatment, parasites might be in highly drug-sensitive stages or in much less sensitive stages. We describe how to bring such drugs into pharmacological modeling by including additional variation into the drug's maximal killing rate. Finally, we show that artemisinin kill rates may have been substantially overestimated in previous modeling studies because (i) the parasite reduction ratio (PRR) (generally estimated to be 10(4)) is based on observed changes in circulating parasite numbers, which generally overestimate the "true" PRR, which should include both circulating and sequestered parasites, and (ii) the third dose of artemisinin at 48 h targets exactly those stages initially hit at time zero, so it is incorrect to extrapolate the PRR measured over 48 h to predict the impact of doses at 48 h and later.

The time-course of protection of the RTS,S vaccine against malaria infections and clinical disease

Background

Recent publications have reported follow-up of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate Phase III trials at 11 African sites for 32 months (or longer). This includes site- and time-specific estimates of incidence and efficacy against clinical disease with four different vaccination schedules. These data allow estimation of the time-course of protection against infection associated with two different ages of vaccination, both with and without a booster dose.

Methods

Using an ensemble of individual-based stochastic models, each trial cohort in the Phase III trial was simulated assuming many different hypothetical profiles for the vaccine efficacy against infection in time, for both the primary course and boosting dose and including the potential for either exponential or non-exponential decay. The underlying profile of protection was determined by Bayesian fitting of these model predictions to the site- and time-specific incidence of clinical malaria over 32 months (or longer) of follow-up. Using the same stochastic models, projections of clinical efficacy in each of the sites were modelled and compared to available observed trial data.

Results

The initial protection of RTS,S immediately following three doses is estimated as providing an efficacy against infection of 65 % (when immunizing infants aged 6–12 weeks old) and 91 % (immunizing children aged 5–17 months old at first vaccination). This protection decays relatively rapidly, with an approximately exponential decay for the 6–12 weeks old cohort (with a half-life of 7.2 months); for the 5–17 months old cohort a biphasic decay with a similar half-life is predicted, with an initial rapid decay followed by a slower decay. The boosting dose was estimated to return protection to an efficacy against infection of 50–55 % for both cohorts. Estimates of clinical efficacy by trial site are consistent with those reported in the trial for all cohorts.

Conclusions

The site- and time-specific clinical observations from the RTS,S/AS01 trial data allowed a reasonably precise estimation of the underlying vaccine protection against infection which is consistent with common underlying efficacy and decay rates across the trial sites. This calibration suggests that the decay in efficacy against clinical disease is more rapid than that against infection because of age-shifts in the incidence of disease. The dynamical models predict that clinical effectiveness will continue to decay and that likely effects beyond the time-scale of the trial will be small.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-015-0969-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.