Assessing national vector control micro-planning in Zambia using the 2021 malaria indicator survey

BACKGROUND

In 2020, the Zambia National Malaria Elimination Centre targeted the distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor-residual spraying (IRS) campaigns based on sub-district micro-planning, where specified geographical areas at the health facility catchment level were assigned to receive either LLINs or IRS. Using data from the 2021 Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS), the objectives of this analysis were to (1) assess how well the micro-planning was followed in distributing LLINs and IRS, (2) investigate factors that contributed to whether households received what was planned, and (3) investigate how overall coverage observed in the 2021 MIS compared to the 2018 MIS conducted prior to micro-planning.

METHODS

Households' receipt of ≥ 1 LLIN, and/or IRS within the past 12 months in the 2021 MIS, was compared against the micro-planning area under which the households fell. GPS points for 3,550 households were overlayed onto digitized micro-planning maps in order to determine what micro-plan the households fell under, and thus whether they received their planned intervention. Mixed-effects regression models were conducted to investigate what factors affected whether these households: (1) received their planned intervention, and (2) received any intervention. Finally, coverage indicators between the 2021 and 2018 MIS were compared.

RESULTS

Overall, 60.0% (95%CI 55.4, 64.4) of households under a micro-plan received their assigned intervention, with significantly higher coverage of the planned intervention in LLIN-assigned areas (75.7% [95%CI 69.5, 80.9]) compared to IRS-assigned areas (49.4% [95%CI: 44.4, 54.4]). Regression analysis indicated that households falling under the IRS micro-plan had significantly reduced odds of receiving their planned intervention (OR: 0.34 [95%CI 0.24, 0.48]), and significantly reduced odds of receiving any intervention (OR: 0.51 [95%CI 0.37, 0.72] ), compared to households under the LLIN micro-plan. Comparison between the 2021 and 2018 MIS indicated a 27% reduction in LLIN coverage nationally in 2021, while IRS coverage was similar. Additionally, between 2018 and 2021, there was a 13% increase in households that received neither intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis shows that although the micro-planning strategy adopted in 2020 worked much better for LLIN-assigned areas compared to IRS-assigned areas, there was reduced overall vector control coverage in 2021 compared to 2018 before micro-planning.

Master statistical analysis plan: attractive targeted sugar bait phase III trials in Kenya, Mali, and Zambia

This manuscript is a master statistical analysis plan for each of three-cluster randomized controlled trials to evaluate the efficacy of attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSB) described in an already published protocol. The master SAP contains an overarching plan for all three trials, which can be adapted to trial-specific circumstances. The primary objective of the trials is to evaluate the efficacy of ATSB in the presence of universal vector control coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITN) or indoor residual spraying (IRS) after two transmission seasons on clinical malaria incidence as compared with universal vector control coverage with ITN or IRS alone. The primary outcome measure is the incidence rate of clinical malaria, assessed in cohorts aged 12 months to less than 15 years (≥ 5 years to 15 years in Mali) during monthly follow-up visits. The primary unadjusted analysis will be conducted on the intention-to-treat analysis population without adjustment for any anticipated confounding variables. The primary outcome will be analyzed using a multi-level model constructed on a generalized linear model framework with a Poisson likelihood and a log link function. Random intercepts will be included for each study cluster and a fixed effect for study-arm. The analyst will be blinded to study arm assignment. Several secondary outcomes will be analyzed, as well as a pooled analysis (individual patient data meta-analysis) across the three trial sites. Additionally, a standard meta-analysis is expected to be conducted using combined data from all sites.

Interpersonal communication, cultural norms, and community perceptions associated with care-seeking for fever among children under age five in Magoé district, Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Malaria is endemic throughout Mozambique, contributing significantly to the country's burden of disease. Prompt and effective treatment for fevers in children can limit the mortality and morbidity impacts of the disease but many children in the country are not taken for formal care when ill. Using an ideational model of behaviour, this study assesses the magnitude of the relationships for potential drivers of care-seeking, including interpersonal communication, malaria messaging, and knowledge and attitudes about malaria, with actual care-seeking behaviours for under-five children with fever in Magoé district, Mozambique.

METHODS

Data on the care-seeking behaviours for fever come from a 2019 household malaria survey in Magoé district. Households were randomly selected for interview from among those with at least one child under age five and one net for every two household members. From 1621 mother-child dyads, the analytical sample consists of 300 children under age five with a fever in the 2 weeks prior to the survey. Multilevel random effects logistic regression models are estimated to test for associations between care-seeking behaviours and hypothesized behavioural determinants, including interpersonal communication (IPC), malaria messaging, ideational factors (e.g., norms, attitudes, beliefs, risk perceptions), and community characteristics.

RESULTS

Overall, 18.5% of children under age five (N = 300) were reported to have fever in the previous 2 weeks and, of these, 68.5% were taken to a formal sector health care provider. Multivariate models highlight significant roles for interpersonal communication; care-seeking was highest among mothers who spoke only with friends/community members about malaria (94.0%, p < 0.001), followed by those who spoke only with their husband (78.6%, p = 0.015), relative to 63.3% who spoke with no one. Care-seeking decisions made by a child's grandmother were associated with a 25.0% point (p = 0.001) greater likelihood of seeking care relative to decisions made by the mother alone. Exposure to any malaria messaging was also positively associated with care-seeking (90.5% versus 62.7%, p < 0.001). In contrast, among all individual- and community-level ideational factors, only perceptions of self-efficacy to seek care were related to care-seeking behaviours.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that social and behaviour change interventions that focus on encouraging families and community members to talk about malaria and the need to promptly seek treatment for fevers in children may be particularly effective at increasing this behaviour in this and similar settings. Such messaging and IPC should consider grandmothers as a target audience, as they appear to be perceived as highly influential in care-seeking decision-making in this community.

Spatial Clustering and Risk Factors for Malaria Infections and Marker of Recent Exposure to Plasmodium falciparum from a Household Survey in Artibonite, Haiti

Targeting malaria interventions in elimination settings where transmission is heterogeneous is essential to ensure the efficient use of resources. Identifying the most important risk factors among persons experiencing a range of exposure can facilitate such targeting. A cross-sectional household survey was conducted in Artibonite, Haiti, to identify and characterize spatial clustering of malaria infections. Household members (N = 21,813) from 6,962 households were surveyed and tested for malaria. An infection was defined as testing positive for Plasmodium falciparum by either a conventional or novel highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test. Seropositivity to the early transcribed membrane protein 5 antigen 1 represented recent exposure to P. falciparum. Clusters were identified using SaTScan. Associations among individual, household, and environmental risk factors for malaria, recent exposure, and living in spatial clusters of these outcomes were evaluated. Malaria infection was detected in 161 individuals (median age: 15 years). Weighted malaria prevalence was low (0.56%; 95% CI: 0.45-0.70%). Serological evidence of recent exposure was detected in 1,134 individuals. Bed net use, household wealth, and elevation were protective, whereas being febrile, over age 5 years, and living in either households with rudimentary wall material or farther from the road increased the odds of malaria. Two predominant overlapping spatial clusters of infection and recent exposure were identified. Individual, household, and environmental risk factors are associated with the odds of individual risk and recent exposure in Artibonite; spatial clusters are primarily associated with household-level risk factors. Findings from serology testing can further strengthen the targeting of interventions.

Acceptability, Feasibility, Drug Safety, and Effectiveness of a Pilot Mass Drug Administration with a Single Round of Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine Plus Primaquine and Indoor Residual Spraying in Communities with Malaria Transmission in Haiti, 2018

For a malaria elimination strategy, Haiti's National Malaria Control Program piloted a mass drug administration (MDA) with indoor residual spraying (IRS) in 12 high-transmission areas across five communes after implementing community case management and strengthened surveillance. The MDA distributed sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and single low-dose primaquine to eligible residents during house visits. The IRS campaign applied pirimiphos-methyl insecticide on walls of eligible houses. Pre- and post-campaign cross-sectional surveys were conducted to assess acceptability, feasibility, drug safety, and effectiveness of the combined interventions. Stated acceptability for MDA before the campaign was 99.2%; MDA coverage estimated at 10 weeks post-campaign was 89.6%. Similarly, stated acceptability of IRS at baseline was 99.9%; however, household IRS coverage was 48.9% because of the high number of ineligible houses. Effectiveness measured by Plasmodium falciparum prevalence at baseline and 10 weeks post-campaign were similar: 1.31% versus 1.43%, respectively. Prevalence of serological markers were similar at 10 weeks post-campaign compared with baseline, and increased at 6 months. No severe adverse events associated with the MDA were identified in the pilot; there were severe adverse events in a separate, subsequent campaign. Both MDA and IRS are acceptable and feasible interventions in Haiti. Although a significant impact of a single round of MDA/IRS on malaria transmission was not found using a standard pre- and post-intervention comparison, it is possible there was blunting of the peak transmission. Seasonal malaria transmission patterns, suboptimal IRS coverage, and low baseline parasitemia may have limited the effectiveness or the ability to measure effectiveness.

Effectiveness of community case management of malaria on severe malaria and inpatient malaria deaths in Zambia: a dose-response study using routine health information system data

BACKGROUND

Community case management of malaria (CCM) has been expanded in many settings, but there are limited data describing the impact of these services in routine implementation settings or at large scale. Zambia has intensively expanded CCM since 2013, whereby trained volunteer community health workers (CHW) use rapid diagnostic tests and artemether-lumefantrine to diagnose and treat uncomplicated malaria.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational study explored associations between changing malaria service point (health facility or CHW) density per 1000 people and severe malaria admissions or malaria inpatient deaths by district and month in a dose-response approach, using existing routine and programmatic data. Negative binomial generalized linear mixed-effect models were used to assess the impact of increasing one additional malaria service point per 1000 population, and of achieving Zambia's interim target of 1 service point per 750 population. Access to insecticide-treated nets, indoor-residual spraying, and rainfall anomaly were included in models to reduce potential confounding.

RESULTS

The study captured 310,855 malaria admissions and 7158 inpatient malaria deaths over 83 districts (seven provinces) from January 2015 to May 2020. Total CHWs increased from 43 to 4503 during the study period, while health facilities increased from 1263 to 1765. After accounting for covariates, an increase of one malaria service point per 1000 was associated with a 19% reduction in severe malaria admissions among children under five (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.87, p < 0.001) and 23% reduction in malaria deaths among under-fives (IRR 0.77, 95% CI 0.66-0.91). After categorizing the exposure of population per malaria service point, there was evidence for an effect on malaria admissions and inpatient malaria deaths among children under five only when reaching the target of one malaria service point per 750 population.

CONCLUSIONS

CCM is an effective strategy for preventing severe malaria and deaths in areas such as Zambia where malaria diagnosis and treatment access remains challenging. These results support the continued investment in CCM scale-up in similar settings, to improve access to malaria diagnosis and treatment.

Attractive targeted sugar bait phase III trials in Kenya, Mali, and Zambia

BACKGROUND

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) target night-time indoor biting mosquitoes and effectively reduce malaria transmission in rural settings across Africa, but additional vector control tools are needed to interrupt transmission. Attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSBs) attract and kill mosquitoes, including those biting outdoors. Deployment of ATSBs incorporating the insecticide dinotefuran was associated with major reductions in mosquito density and longevity in Mali. The impact of this promising intervention on malaria transmission and morbidity now needs to be determined in a range of transmission settings.

METHODS/DESIGN

We will conduct three similar stand-alone, open-label, two-arm, cluster-randomized, controlled trials (cRCTs) in Mali, Kenya, and Zambia to determine the impact of ATSB + universal vector control versus universal vector control alone on clinical malaria. The trials will use a "fried-egg" design, with primary outcomes measured in the core area of each cluster to reduce spill-over effects. All household structures in the ATSB clusters will receive two ATSBs, but the impact will be measured in the core of clusters. Restricted randomization will be used. The primary outcome is clinical malaria incidence among children aged 5-14 years in Mali and 1-14 years in Kenya and Zambia. A key secondary outcome is malaria parasite prevalence across all ages. The trials will include 76 clusters (38 per arm) in Mali and 70 (35 per arm) in each of Kenya and Zambia. The trials are powered to detect a 30% reduction in clinical malaria, requiring a total of 3850 person-years of follow-up in Mali, 1260 person-years in Kenya, and 1610 person-years in Zambia. These sample sizes will be ascertained using two seasonal 8-month cohorts in Mali and two 6-month seasonal cohorts in Zambia. In Kenya, which has year-round transmission, four 6-month cohorts will be used (total 24 months of follow-up). The design allows for one interim analysis in Mali and Zambia and two in Kenya.

DISCUSSION

Strengths of the design include the use of multiple study sites with different transmission patterns and a range of vectors to improve external validity, a large number of clusters within each trial site, restricted randomization, between-cluster separation to minimize contamination between study arms, and an adaptive trial design. Noted threats to internal validity include open-label design, risk of contamination between study arms, risk of imbalance of covariates across study arms, variation in durability of ATSB stations, and potential disruption resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Zambia: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04800055 . Registered on March 15, 2021 Mali: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04149119 . Registered on November 4, 2019 Kenya: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05219565 . Registered on February 2, 2022.

Etramp5 as a useful serological marker in children to assess the immediate effects of mass drug campaigns for malaria

INTRODUCTION

Serological methods provide useful metrics to estimate age-specific period prevalence in settings of low malaria transmission; however, evidence on the use of seropositivity as an endpoint remains scarce in studies to evaluate combinations of malaria control measures, especially in children. This study aims to evaluate the immediate effects of a targeted mass drug administration campaign (tMDA) in Haiti by using serological markers.

METHODS

The tMDA was implemented in September-October 2018 using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and single low-dose primaquine. A natural quasi-experimental study was designed, using a pretest and posttest in a cohort of 754 randomly selected school children, among which 23% reported having received tMDA. Five antigens were selected as outcomes (MSP1-19, AMA-1, Etramp5 antigen 1, HSP40, and GLURP-R0). Posttest was conducted 2-6 weeks after the intervention.

RESULTS

At baseline, there was no statistical difference in seroprevalence between the groups of children that were or were not exposed during the posttest. A lower seroprevalence was observed for markers informative of recent exposure (Etramp5 antigen 1, HSP40, and GLURP-R0). Exposure to tMDA was significantly associated with a 50% reduction in the odds of seropositivity for Etramp5 antigen 1 and a 21% reduction in the odds of seropositivity for MSP119.

CONCLUSION

Serological markers can be used to evaluate the effects of interventions against malaria on the risk of infection in settings of low transmission. Antibody responses against Etramp5 antigen 1 in Haitian children were reduced in the 2-6 weeks following a tMDA campaign, confirming its usefulness as a short-term marker in child populations.

Estimating malaria chemoprevention and vector control coverage using program and campaign data: A scoping review of current practices and opportunities

Background

Accurate estimation of intervention coverage is a vital component of malaria program monitoring and evaluation, both for process evaluation (how well program targets are achieved), and impact evaluation (whether intervention coverage had an impact on malaria burden). There is growing interest in maximizing the utility of program data to generate interim estimates of intervention coverage in the periods between large-scale cross-sectional surveys (the gold standard). As such, this study aimed to identify relevant concepts and themes that may guide future optimization of intervention coverage estimation using routinely collected data, or data collected during and following intervention campaigns, with a particular focus on strategies to define the denominator.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review of current practices to estimate malaria intervention coverage for insecticide-treated nets (ITNs); indoor residual spray (IRS); intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp); mass drug administration (MDA); and seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) interventions; case management was excluded. Multiple databases were searched for relevant articles published from January 1, 2015 to June 1, 2018. Additionally, we identified and included other guidance relevant to estimating population denominators, with a focus on innovative techniques.

Results

While program data have the potential to provide intervention coverage data, there are still substantial challenges in selecting appropriate denominators. The review identified a lack of consistency in how coverage was defined and reported for each intervention type, with denominator estimation methods not clearly or consistently reported, and denominator estimates rarely triangulated with other data sources to present the feasible range of denominator values and consequently the range of likely coverage estimates.

Conclusions

Though household survey-based estimates of intervention coverage remain the gold standard, efforts should be made to further standardize practices for generating interim measurements of intervention coverage from program data, and for estimating and reporting population denominators. This includes fully describing any projections or adjustments made to existing census or population data, exploring opportunities to validate available data by comparing with other sources, and explaining how the denominator has been restricted (or not) to reflect exclusion criteria.

Nationwide Monitoring for Plasmodium falciparum Drug-Resistance Alleles to Chloroquine, Sulfadoxine, and Pyrimethamine, Haiti, 2016-2017

Haiti is striving for zero local malaria transmission by the year 2025. Chloroquine remains the first-line treatment, and sulfadoxine/pyrimethamine (SP) has been used for mass drug-administration pilot programs. In March 2016, nationwide molecular surveillance was initiated to assess molecular resistance signatures for chloroquine and SP. For 778 samples collected through December 2017, we used Sanger sequencing to investigate putative resistance markers to chloroquine (Pfcrt codons 72, 74, 75, and 76), sulfadoxine (Pfdhps codons 436, 437, 540, 581, 613), and pyrimethamine (Pfdhfr codons 50, 51, 59, 108, 164). No parasites harbored Pfcrt point mutations. Prevalence of the Pfdhfr S108N single mutation was 47%, and we found the triple mutant Pfdhfr haplotype (108N, 51I, and 59R) in a single isolate. We observed no Pfdhps variants except in 1 isolate (A437G mutation). These data confirm the lack of highly resistant chloroquine and SP alleles in Haiti and support the continued use of chloroquine and SP.

The Immediate Effects of a Combined Mass Drug Administration and Indoor Residual Spraying Campaign to Accelerate Progress towards Malaria Elimination in Grande-Anse, Haiti

Background

Haiti is planning targeted interventions to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination. In the most affected department (Grande-Anse), a combined mass drug administration (MDA) and indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaign was launched in October 2018. This study assessed the intervention’s effectiveness in reducing Plasmodium falciparum prevalence.

Methods

An ecological quasi-experimental study was designed, using a pretest and posttest with a nonrandomized control group. Surveys were conducted in November 2017 in a panel of easy access groups (25 schools and 16 clinics) and were repeated 2–6 weeks after the campaign, in November 2018. Single-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and primaquine was used for MDA, and pirimiphos-methyl as insecticide for IRS.

Results

A total of 10 006 participants were recruited. Fifty-two percent of the population in the intervention area reported having received MDA. Prevalence diminished between 2017 and 2018 in both areas, but the reduction was significantly larger in the intervention area (ratio of adjusted risk ratios, 0.32 [95% confidence interval, .104–.998]).

Conclusions

Despite a moderate coverage, the campaign was effective in reducing P. falciparum prevalence immediately after 1 round. Targeted MDA plus IRS is useful in preelimination settings to rapidly decrease the parasite reservoir, an encouraging step to accelerate progress toward malaria elimination.

Rapid Screening for Non-falciparum Malaria in Elimination Settings Using Multiplex Antigen and Antibody Detection: Post Hoc Identification of Plasmodium malariae in an Infant in Haiti

Haiti is targeting malaria elimination by 2025. The Grand'Anse department in southwestern Haiti experiences one-third to half of all nationally reported Plasmodium falciparum cases. Although there are historical reports of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium malariae, today, non-falciparum infections would remain undetected because of extensive use of falciparum-specific histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) at health facilities. A recent case-control study was conducted in Grand'Anse to identify risk factors for P. falciparum infection using HRP2-based RDTs (n = 1,107). Post hoc multiplex Plasmodium antigenemia and antibody (IgG) detection by multiplex bead assay revealed one blood sample positive for pan-Plasmodium aldolase, negative for P. falciparum HRP2, and positive for IgG antibodies to P. malariae. Based on this finding, we selected 52 samples with possible P. malariae infection using IgG and antigenemia data and confirmed infection status by species-specific PCR. We confirmed one P. malariae infection in a 6-month-old infant without travel history. Congenital P. malariae could not be excluded. However, our finding-in combination with historical reports of P. malariae-warrants further investigation into the presence and possible extent of non-falciparum malaria in Haiti. Furthermore, we showed the use of multiplex Plasmodium antigen and IgG detection in selecting samples of interest for subsequent PCR analysis, thereby reducing costs as opposed to testing all available samples by PCR. This is of specific use in low-transmission or eliminating settings where infections are rare.

Retrospective evaluation of the effectiveness of indoor residual spray with pirimiphos-methyl (Actellic) on malaria transmission in Zambia

Background

Widespread insecticide resistance to pyrethroids could thwart progress towards elimination. Recently, the World Health Organization has encouraged the use of non-pyrethroid insecticides to reduce the spread of insecticide resistance. An electronic tool for implementing and tracking coverage of IRS campaigns has recently been tested (mSpray), using satellite imagery to improve the accuracy and efficiency of the enumeration process. The purpose of this paper is to retrospectively analyse cross-sectional observational data to provide evidence of the epidemiological effectiveness of having introduced Actellic 300CS and the mSpray platform into IRS programmes across Zambia.

Methods

Health facility catchment areas in 40 high burden districts in 5 selected provinces were initially targeted for spraying. The mSpray platform was used in 7 districts in Luapula Province. An observational study design was used to assess the relationship between IRS exposure and confirmed malaria case incidence. A random effects Poisson model was used to quantify the effect of IRS (with and without use of the mSpray platform) on confirmed malaria case incidence over the period 2013–2017; analysis was restricted to the 4 provinces where IRS was conducted in each year 2014–2016.

Results

IRS was conducted in 283 health facility catchment areas from 2014 to 2016; 198 health facilities from the same provinces, that received no IRS during this period, served as a comparison. IRS appears to be associated with reduced confirmed malaria incidence; the incidence rate ratio (IRR) was lower in areas with IRS but without mSpray, compared to areas with no IRS (IRR = 0.91, 95% CI 0.84–0.98). Receiving IRS with mSpray significantly lowered confirmed case incidence (IRR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.66–0.86) compared to no IRS. IRS with mSpray resulted in lower incidence compared to IRS without mSpray (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI 0.72–0.95).

Conclusions

IRS using Actellic-CS appears to substantially reduce malaria incidence in Zambia. The use of the mSpray tool appears to improve the effectiveness of the IRS programme, possibly through improved population level coverage. The results of this study lend credence to the anecdotal evidence of the effectiveness of 3GIRS using Actellic, and the importance of exploring new platforms for improving effective population coverage of areas targeted for spraying.

Data on selected antimalarial drug resistance markers in Zambia

This article describes data on selected resistance markers for antimalarial drugs used in Zambia. Antimalarial drug resistance has hindered the progress in the control and elimination of malaria. Blood samples were collected during a cross-sectional household survey, conducted during the peak malaria transmission, April to May of 2017. Dried blood spots were collected during the survey and transported to a laboratory for analysis. The analysed included polymerase chain reaction (PCR) followed by high resolution melt (HRM) for mutations associated with Sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in the Plasmodium falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (Pfdhfr) and P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthase (Pfdhps) genes. Mutations associated with artemether-lumefantrine resistance in falciparum multi-drug resistance gene 1 (Pfmdr1) were also assessed using PCR and HRM analysis, whereas the P. falciparum Kelch 13 (PfK13) gene was assessed using nested PCR followed by amplicon sequencing.

Management of uncomplicated malaria among children under five years at public and private sector facilities in Mali

Background

Prompt and effective malaria diagnosis and treatment is a cornerstone of malaria control. Case management guidelines recommend confirmatory testing of suspected malaria cases, then prescription of specific drugs for uncomplicated malaria and for severe malaria. This study aims to describe case management practices for children aged 1–59 months seeking treatment with current or recent fever from public and private, rural and urban health providers in Mali.

Methods

Data were collected at sites in Sikasso Region and Bamako. Health workers recorded key information from the consultation including malaria diagnostic testing and result, their final diagnosis, and all drugs prescribed. Children with signs of severe diseases were ineligible. Consultations were not independently observed. Appropriate case management was defined as both 1) tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic test or microscopy, and 2) receiving artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) and no other antimalarials if test-positive, or receiving no antimalarials if test-negative.

Results

Of 1602 participating children, 23.7% were appropriately managed, ranging from 5.3% at public rural facilities to 48.4% at community health worker sites. The most common reason for ‘inappropriate’ management was lack of malaria diagnostic testing (50.4% of children). Among children with confirmed malaria, 50.8% received a non-ACT antimalarial (commonly artesunate injection or artemether), either alone or in combination with ACT. Of 215 test-negative children, 44.2% received an antimalarial drug, most commonly ACT. Prescription of multiple drugs was common: 21.7% of all children received more than one type of antimalarial, while 51.9% received an antibiotic and antimalarial. Inappropriate case management increased in children with increasing axillary temperatures and those seeking care over weekends.

Conclusions

Multiple limitations in management of febrile children under five were identified, including inconsistent use of confirmatory testing and apparent use of severe malaria drugs for uncomplicated malaria. While we cannot confirm the reasons for these shortcomings, there is a need to address the high use of non-ACT antimalarials in this context; to minimize potential for drug resistance, reduce unnecessary expense, and preserve life-saving treatment for severe malaria cases. These findings highlight the challenge of managing febrile illness in young children in a high transmission setting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-020-09873-1.

Surveillance of molecular markers for antimalarial resistance in Zambia: Polymorphism of Pfkelch 13, Pfmdr1 and Pfdhfr/Pfdhps genes

Antimalarial resistance is an inevitable feature of control efforts and a key threat to achieving malaria elimination. Plasmodium falciparum, the deadliest of several species causing human malaria, has developed resistance to essentially all antimalarials. This study sought to investigate the prevalence of molecular markers associated with resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) in Southern and Western provinces in Zambia. SP is used primarily for intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy, while AL is the first-line antimalarial for uncomplicated malaria in Zambia. Blood samples were collected from household members of all ages in a cross-sectional survey conducted during peak malaria transmission, April to May of 2017, and amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Amplicons were then analysed by high-resolution melt following PCR to identify mutations associated with SP resistance in the P. falciparum dihydrofolate reductase (Pfdhfr) and P. falciparum dihydropteroate synthase (Pfdhps) genes and lumefantrine resistance in the P. falciparum multi-drug resistance 1 (Pfmdr1) gene. Finally, artemether resistance was assessed in the P. falciparum Kelch 13 (PfK13) gene using nested PCR followed by amplicon sequencing. The results showed a high frequency of genotypic-resistant Pfdhps A437G (93.2%) and Pfdhfr C59R (86.7%), N51I (80.9%), and S108N (80.8%) of which a high proportion (82.4%) were quadruple mutants (Pfdhfr N51I, C59R, S108N +Pfdhps A437G). Pfmrd1 N86Y, Y186F, and D1246Y - NFD mutant haplotypes were observed in 41.9% of isolates. The high prevalence of quadruple dhps/dhfr mutants indicates strong antifolate drug pressure from SP or other drugs (e.g., co-trimoxazole). Three samples contained PfK13 mutations, two synonymous (T478 and V666) and one non-synonymous (A578S), none of which have been associated with delayed clearance. This suggests that artemisinin remains efficacious in Zambia, however, the moderately high prevalence of approximately 40% Pfmdr1 NFD mutations calls for close monitoring of AL.

Conventional and High-Sensitivity Malaria Rapid Diagnostic Test Performance in 2 Transmission Settings: Haiti 2017

Accurate malaria diagnosis is foundational for control and elimination, and Haiti relies on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2)-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) identifying Plasmodium falciparum in clinical and community settings. In 2017, 1 household and 2 easy-access group surveys tested all participants (N = 32 506) by conventional and high-sensitivity RDTs. A subset of blood samples (n = 1154) was laboratory tested for HRP2 by bead-based immunoassay and for P. falciparum 18S rDNA by photo-induced electron transfer polymerase chain reaction. Both RDT types detected low concentrations of HRP2 with sensitivity estimates between 2.6 ng/mL and 14.6 ng/mL. Compared to the predicate HRP2 laboratory assay, RDT sensitivity ranged from 86.3% to 96.0% between tests and settings, and specificity from 90.0% to 99.6%. In the household survey, the high-sensitivity RDT provided a significantly higher number of positive tests, but this represented a very small proportion (<0.2%) of all participants. These data show that a high-sensitivity RDT may have limited utility in a malaria elimination setting like Haiti.

Impact of Four Rounds of Mass Drug Administration with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine Implemented in Southern Province, Zambia

Over the past decade, Zambia has made substantial progress against malaria and has recently set the ambitious goal of eliminating by 2021. In the context of very high vector control and improved access to malaria diagnosis and treatment in Southern Province, we implemented a community-randomized controlled trial to assess the impact of four rounds of community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) and household-level MDA (focal MDA) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAP) implemented between December 2014 and February 2016. The mass treatment campaigns achieved relatively good household coverage (63-79%), were widely accepted by the community (ranging from 87% to 94%), and achieved very high adherence to the DHAP regimen (81-96%). Significant declines in all malaria study end points were observed, irrespective of the exposure group, with the overall parasite prevalence during the peak transmission season declining by 87.2% from 31.3% at baseline to 4.0% in 2016 at the end of the trial. Children in areas of lower transmission (< 10% prevalence at baseline) that received four MDA rounds had a 72% (95% CI = 12-91%) reduction in malaria parasite prevalence as compared with those with the standard of care without any mass treatment. Mass drug administration consistently had the largest short-term effect size across study end points in areas of lower transmission following the first two MDA rounds. In the context of achieving very high vector control coverage and improved access to diagnosis and treatment for malaria, our results suggest that MDA should be considered for implementation in African settings for rapidly reducing malaria outcomes in lower transmission settings.

Adherence to Mass Drug Administration with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine and Plasmodium falciparum Clearance in Southern Province, Zambia

Mass drug administration (MDA) with artemisinin combination therapy is a potentially useful tool for malaria elimination programs, but its success depends partly on drug effectiveness and treatment coverage in the targeted population. As part of a cluster-randomized controlled trial in Southern Province, Zambia evaluating the impact of MDA and household focal MDA (fMDA) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAp), sub-studies were conducted investigating population drug adherence rates and effectiveness of DHAp as administered in clearing Plasmodium falciparum infections following household mass administration. Adherence information was reported for 181,534 of 336,821 DHAp (53.9%) treatments administered during four rounds of MDA/fMDA, of which 153,197 (84.4%) reported completing the full course of DHAp. The proportion of participants fully adhering to the treatment regimen differed by MDA modality (MDA versus fMDA), RDT status, and whether the first dose was observed by those administering treatments. Among a subset of participants receiving DHAp and selected for longitudinal follow-up, 58 were positive for asexual-stage P. falciparum infection by microscopy at baseline. None of the 45 participants followed up at days 3 and/or 7 were slide positive for asexual-stage parasitemia. For those with longer term follow-up, one participant was positive 47 days after treatment, and two additional participants were positive after 69 days, although these two were determined to be new infections by genotyping. High completion of a 3-day course of DHAp and parasite clearance in the context of household MDA are promising as Zambia's National Malaria Programme continues to weigh appropriate interventions for malaria elimination.

Evidence for Reduced Malaria Parasite Population after Application of Population-Level Antimalarial Drug Strategies in Southern Province, Zambia

A mass drug administration trial was carried out in Southern Province, Zambia, between 2014 and 2016, in conjunction with a standard of care package that included improved surveillance, increased access to malaria case management, and sustained high levels of vector control coverage. This was preceded by mass test and treatment in the same area from 2011 to 2013. Concordant decreases in malaria prevalence in Southern Province and deaths attributed to malaria in Zambia over this time suggest that these strategies successfully reduced the malaria burden. Genetic epidemiological studies were used to assess the consequences of these interventions on parasite population structure. Analysis of parasite material derived from 1,620 rapid diagnostic test (RDT)-positive individuals obtained from studies to evaluate trial outcomes revealed a reduction in the average complexity of infection and consequential increase in the proportion of infections that harbored a single parasite genome (monogenomic infections). Highly related parasites, consistent with inbreeding, were detected after interventions were deployed. Geographical analysis indicated that the highly related infections were both clustered focally and dispersed across the study area. These findings provide genetic evidence for a reduced parasite population, with indications of inbreeding following the application of comprehensive interventions, including drug-based campaigns, that reduced the malaria burden in Southern Province. Genetic data additionally revealed the relationship between individual infections in the context of these population-level patterns, which has the potential to provide useful data for stratification and targeting of interventions to reduce the malaria burden.

Cost-Effectiveness of Focal Mass Drug Administration and Mass Drug Administration with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine for Malaria Prevention in Southern Province, Zambia: Results of a Community-Randomized Controlled Trial

Community-wide administration of antimalarial drugs in therapeutic doses is a potential tool to prevent malaria infection and reduce the malaria parasite reservoir. To measure the effectiveness and cost of using the antimalarial drug combination dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine (DHAp) through different community-wide distribution strategies, Zambia’s National Malaria Control Centre conducted a three-armed community-randomized controlled trial. The trial arms were as follows: 1) standard of care (SoC) malaria interventions, 2) SoC plus focal mass drug administration (fMDA), and 3) SoC plus MDA. Mass drug administration consisted of offering all eligible individuals DHAP, irrespective of a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) result. Focal mass drug administration consisted of offering DHAP to all eligible individuals who resided in a household where anyone tested positive by RDT. Results indicate that the costs of fMDA and MDA per person targeted and reached are similar (US$9.01 versus US$8.49 per person, respectively, P = 0.87), but that MDA was superior in all cost-effectiveness measures, including cost per infection averted, cost per case averted, cost per death averted, and cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Subsequent costing of the MDA intervention in a non-trial, operational setting yielded significantly lower costs per person reached (US$2.90). Mass drug administration with DHAp also met the WHO thresholds for “cost-effective interventions” in the Zambian setting in 90% of simulations conducted using a probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on trial costs, whereas fMDA met these criteria in approximately 50% of simulations. A sensitivity analysis using costs from operational deployment and trial effectiveness yielded improved cost-effectiveness estimates. Mass drug administration may be a cost-effective intervention in the Zambian context and can help reduce the parasite reservoir substantially. Mass drug administration was more cost-effective in relatively higher transmission settings. In all scenarios examined, the cost-effectiveness of MDA was superior to that of fMDA.

A Longitudinal Cohort to Monitor Malaria Infection Incidence during Mass Drug Administration in Southern Province, Zambia

Rigorous evidence of effectiveness is needed to determine where and when to apply mass drug administration (MDA) or focal MDA (fMDA) as part of a malaria elimination strategy. The Zambia National Malaria Elimination Centre recently completed a community-randomized controlled trial in Southern Province to evaluate MDA and fMDA for transmission reduction. To assess the role of MDA and fMDA on infection incidence, we enrolled a longitudinal cohort for an 18-month period of data collection including monthly malaria parasite infection detection based on polymerase chain reaction and compared time to first infection and cumulative infection incidence outcomes across study arms using Cox proportional hazards and negative binomial models. A total of 2,026 individuals from 733 households were enrolled and completed sufficient follow-up for inclusion in analysis. Infection incidence declined dramatically across all study arms during the period of study, and MDA was associated with reduced risk of first infection (hazards ratio: 0.36; 95% CI: 0.16–0.80) and cumulative infection incidence during the first rainy season (first 5 months of follow-up) (incidence rate ratio: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.12–0.95). No significant effect was found for fMDA or for either arm over the full study period. Polymerase chain reaction infection status at baseline was strongly associated with follow-up infection. The short-term effects of MDA suggest it may be an impactful accelerator of transmission reduction in areas with high coverage of case management and vector control and should be considered as part of a malaria elimination strategy.

Recent Travel History and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria Infection in a Region of Heterogenous Transmission in Southern Province, Zambia

As Zambia continues to reduce its malaria incidence and target elimination in Southern Province, there is a need to identify factors that can reintroduce parasites and sustain malaria transmission. To examine the relative contributions of types of human mobility on malaria prevalence, this analysis quantifies the proportion of the population having recently traveled during both peak and nonpeak transmission seasons over the course of 2 years and assesses the relationship between short-term travel and malaria infection status. Among all residents targeted by mass drug administration in the Lake Kariba region of Southern Province, 602,620 rapid diagnostic tests and recent travel histories were collected during four campaign rounds occurring between December 2014 and February 2016. Rates of short-term travel in the previous 2 weeks fluctuated seasonally from 0.3% to 1.2%. Travel was significantly associated with prevalent malaria infection both seasonally and overall (adjusted odds ratio [AOR]: 2.55; 95% CI: 2.28-2.85). The strength of association between travel and malaria infection varied by travelers' origin and destination, with those recently traveling to high-prevalence areas from low-prevalence areas experiencing the highest odds of malaria infection (AOR: 7.38). Long-lasting insecticidal net usage while traveling was associated with a relative reduction in infections (AOR: 0.74) compared with travelers not using a net. Although travel was directly associated with only a small fraction of infections, importation of malaria via human movement may play an increasingly important role in this elimination setting as transmission rates continue to decline.

Moving from Malaria Burden Reduction toward Elimination: An Evaluation of Mass Drug Administration in Southern Province, Zambia

From December 2014 to February 2016, a cluster randomized controlled trial was carried out in 60 health facility catchment areas along Lake Kariba in Zambia's Southern Province. The trial sought to evaluate the impact of four rounds of a mass drug administration (MDA) intervention with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DHAP) or focal MDA with DHAP at the household level compared with a control population that received the standard of care. This study was the first randomized controlled trial with DHAP for MDA in sub-Saharan Africa and was conducted through a collaboration between the National Malaria Elimination Programme in the Zambian Ministry of Health, the PATH Malaria Control and Elimination Partnership in Africa, and the Center for Applied Malaria Research and Evaluation at Tulane University. This article serves as an introduction to a collection of articles designed to explore different aspects of the intervention. By describing the recent history of malaria control in Zambia leading up to the trial-from the scale-up of point-of-care diagnosis and treatment, vector control, and indoor residual spraying early in the twenty-first century, to the efforts made to sustain the gains achieved with that approach-it provides a rationale for the implementation of a trial that has informed a new national strategic plan and solidified malaria elimination as Zambia's national goal.

Treatment Coverage Estimation for Mass Drug Administration for Malaria with Dihydroartemisinin-Piperaquine in Southern Province, Zambia

Mass drug administration (MDA) is currently being considered as an intervention in low-transmission areas to complement existing malaria control and elimination efforts. The effectiveness of any MDA strategy is dependent on achieving high epidemiologic coverage and participant adherence rates. A community-randomized controlled trial was conducted from November 2014 to March 2016 to evaluate the impact of four rounds of MDA or focal MDA (fMDA)—where treatment was given to all eligible household members if anyone in the household had a positive malaria rapid diagnostic test—on malaria outcomes in Southern Province, Zambia (population approximately 300,000). This study examined epidemiologic coverage and program reach using capture–recapture and satellite enumeration methods to estimate the degree to which the trial reached targeted individuals. Overall, it was found that the percentage of households visited by campaign teams ranged from 62.9% (95% CI: 60.0–65.8) to a high of 77.4% (95% CI: 73.8–81.0) across four rounds of treatment. When the maximum number of visited households across all campaign rounds was used as the numerator, program reach for at least one visit would have been 86.4% (95% CI: 80.8–92.0) in MDA and 83.5% (95% CI: 78.0–89.1) in fMDA trial arms. As per the protocol, the trial provided dihydroartemisinin–piperaquine treatment to an average of 58.8% and 13.3% of the estimated population based on capture–recapture in MDA and fMDA, respectively, across the four rounds.

Association between the proportion of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections detected by passive surveillance and the magnitude of the asymptomatic reservoir in the community: a pooled analysis of paired health facility and community data

BACKGROUND

Passively collected malaria case data are the foundation for public health decision making. However, because of population-level immunity, infections might not always be sufficiently symptomatic to prompt individuals to seek care. Understanding the proportion of all Plasmodium spp infections expected to be detected by the health system becomes particularly paramount in elimination settings. The aim of this study was to determine the association between the proportion of infections detected and transmission intensity for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in several global endemic settings.

METHODS

The proportion of infections detected in routine malaria data, P(Detect), was derived from paired household cross-sectional survey and routinely collected malaria data within health facilities. P(Detect) was estimated using a Bayesian model in 431 clusters spanning the Americas, Africa, and Asia. The association between P(Detect) and malaria prevalence was assessed using log-linear regression models. Changes in P(Detect) over time were evaluated using data from 13 timepoints over 2 years from The Gambia.

FINDINGS

The median estimated P(Detect) across all clusters was 12·5% (IQR 5·3-25·0) for P falciparum and 10·1% (5·0-18·3) for P vivax and decreased as the estimated log-PCR community prevalence increased (adjusted odds ratio [OR] for P falciparum 0·63, 95% CI 0·57-0·69; adjusted OR for P vivax 0·52, 0·47-0·57). Factors associated with increasing P(Detect) included smaller catchment population size, high transmission season, improved care-seeking behaviour by infected individuals, and recent increases (within the previous year) in transmission intensity.

INTERPRETATION

The proportion of all infections detected within health systems increases once transmission intensity is sufficiently low. The likely explanation for P falciparum is that reduced exposure to infection leads to lower levels of protective immunity in the population, increasing the likelihood that infected individuals will become symptomatic and seek care. These factors might also be true for P vivax but a better understanding of the transmission biology is needed to attribute likely reasons for the observed trend. In low transmission and pre-elimination settings, enhancing access to care and improvements in care-seeking behaviour of infected individuals will lead to an increased proportion of infections detected in the community and might contribute to accelerating the interruption of transmission.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust.

Evaluating the Impact of Programmatic Mass Drug Administration for Malaria in Zambia Using Routine Incidence Data

Background

In 2016, the Zambian National Malaria Elimination Centre started programmatic mass drug administration (pMDA) campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a malaria elimination tool in Southern Province. Two rounds were administered, 2 months apart (coverage 70% and 57%, respectively). We evaluated the impact of 1 year of pMDA on malaria incidence using routine data.

Methods

We conducted an interrupted time series with comparison group analysis on monthly incidence data collected at the health facility catchment area (HFCA) level, with a negative binomial model using generalized estimating equations. Programmatic mass drug administration was conducted in HFCAs with greater than 50 cases/1000 people per year. Ten HFCAs with incidence rates marginally above this threshold (pMDA group) were compared with 20 HFCAs marginally below (comparison group).

Results

The pMDA HFCAs saw a 46% greater decrease in incidence at the time of intervention than the comparison areas (incidence rate ratio = 0.536; confidence interval = 0.337–0.852); however, incidence increased toward the end of the season. No HFCAs saw a transmission interruption.

Conclusions

Programmatic mass drug administration, implemented during 1 year with imperfect coverage in low transmission areas with suboptimal vector control coverage, significantly reduced incidence. However, elimination will require additional tools. Routine data are important resources for programmatic impact evaluations and should be considered for future analyses.

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum and Non-falciparum Infections by Photo-Induced Electron Transfer-PCR in a Longitudinal Cohort of Individuals Enrolled in a Mass Drug Administration Trial in Southern Province, Zambia

Malaria burden in Zambia has significantly declined over the last decade because of improved coverage of several key malaria interventions (e.g., vector control, case management, bed net distributions, and enhanced surveillance/responses). Campaign-based mass drug administration (MDA) and focal MDA (fMDA) were assessed in a trial in Southern Province, Zambia, to identify its utility in elimination efforts. As part of the study, a longitudinal cohort was visited and tested (by PCR targeting the 18s rRNA and a Plasmodium falciparum–specific rapid diagnostic test [RDT] from SD Bioline) every month for the trial duration (18 months). Overall, there was high concordance (> 97%) between the PCR and RDT results, using the PCR as the gold standard. The RDTs had high specificity and negative predictive values (98.5% and 98.6%, respectively) but low sensitivity (53.0%) and a low positive predictive value (53.8%). There was evidence for persistent antigenemia affecting the low specificity of the RDT, while false-negative RDTs were associated with a lower parasite density than true positive RDTs. Plasmodium falciparum was the dominant species identified, with 98.3% of all positive samples containing P. falciparum. Of these, 97.5% were mono-infections and 0.8% coinfections with one other species. Plasmodium malariae was found in 1.4% of all positive samples (50% mono-infections and 50% coinfections with P. falciparum), whereas Plasmodium ovale was found in 1.1% of all positive samples (90% mono-infections and 10% coinfections with P. falciparum). Although MDA/fMDA appeared to reduce P. malariae prevalence, P. ovale prevalence appeared unchanged.

Pyrethroid and Carbamate Resistance in Anopheles funestus Giles along Lake Kariba in Southern Zambia

Whereas data on insecticide resistance and its underlying mechanisms exist for parts of Zambia, data remain limited in the southern part of the country. This study investigated the status of insecticide resistance, metabolic mechanisms, and parasite infection in Anopheles funestus along Lake Kariba in southern Zambia. Indoor-resting mosquitoes were collected from 20 randomly selected houses within clusters where a mass drug administration trial was conducted and raised to F1 progeny. Non–blood-fed 2- to 5-day-old female An. funestus were exposed to WHO insecticide-impregnated papers with 0.05% deltamethrin, 0.1% bendiocarb, 0.25% pirimiphos-methyl, or 4% dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT). In separate assays, An. funestus were pre-exposed to piperonyl butoxide (PBO) to determine the presence of monooxygenases. Wild-caught An. funestus that had laid eggs for susceptibility assays were screened for circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum by ELISA, and sibling species were identified by polymerase chain reaction. Anopheles funestus showed resistance to deltamethrin and bendiocarb but remained susceptible to pirimiphos-methyl and DDT. The pre-exposure of An. funestus to PBO restored full susceptibility to deltamethrin but not to bendiocarb. The overall sporozoite infection rate in An. funestus populations was 5.8%. Detection of pyrethroid and carbamate resistance in An. funestus calls for increased insecticide resistance monitoring to guide planning and selection of effective insecticide resistance management strategies. To prevent the development of resistance and reduce the underlying vectorial capacity of mosquitoes in areas targeted for malaria elimination, an effective integrated vector management strategy is needed.

Assessment of the Acceptability of Testing and Treatment during a Mass Drug Administration Trial for Malaria in Zambia Using Mixed Methods

From 2014 to 2016, a community-randomized controlled trial in Southern Province, Zambia, compared mass drug administration (MDA) and focal MDA (fMDA) with the standard of care. Acceptability of the intervention was assessed quantitatively using closed-ended and Likert scale-based questions posed during three household surveys conducted from April to May in 2014, 2015, and 2016 in 40 health catchments that implemented MDA and fMDA and 20 catchments that served as trial controls. In 2014 and 2015, 47 households per catchment were selected, targeting 1,880 households in MDA and fMDA trial arms; in 2016, 55 households per catchment were selected for a target of 2,200 households in MDA and fMDA trial arms. Concurrently, 27 focus group discussions and 23 in-depth interviews with 248 participants were conducted on reasons for testing and treatment refusal, reasons for nonadherence, and community perception of the MDA campaign. Results demonstrated that the MDA campaign was highly accepted with more than 99% of respondents stating that they would take treatment if positive for malaria. High acceptability at baseline could be associated with test-and-treat campaigns recently conducted in the study area. There was a large increase in the acceptability of prophylactic treatment if negative for malaria from the baseline to follow-up survey for adults and children, from 62% to 96% for each. This likely resulted from an intensive community-wide sensitization program that occurred before the first treatment round at each household during community health worker visits.

Programmatic options for monitoring malaria in elimination settings: easy access group surveys to investigate Plasmodium falciparum epidemiology in two regions with differing endemicity in Haiti

BACKGROUND

As in most eliminating countries, malaria transmission is highly focal in Haiti. More granular information, including identifying asymptomatic infections, is needed to inform programmatic efforts, monitor intervention effectiveness, and identify remaining foci. Easy access group (EAG) surveys can supplement routine surveillance with more granular information on malaria in a programmatically tractable way. This study assessed how and which type of venue for EAG surveys can improve understanding malaria epidemiology in two regions with different transmission profiles.

METHODS

EAG surveys were conducted within the departments of Artibonite and Grand'Anse (Haiti), in regions with different levels of transmission intensity. Surveys were conducted in three venue types: primary schools, health facilities, and churches. The sampling approach varied accordingly. Individuals present at the venues at the time of the survey were eligible whether they presented malaria symptoms or not. The participants completed a questionnaire and were tested for Plasmodium falciparum by a highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (hsRDT). Factors associated with hsRDT positivity were assessed by negative binomial random-effects regression models.

RESULTS

Overall, 11,029 individuals were sampled across 39 venues in Artibonite and 41 in Grand'Anse. The targeted sample size per venue type (2100 in Artibonite and 2500 in Grand'Anse) was reached except for the churches in Artibonite, where some attendees left the venue before they could be approached or enrolled. Refusal rate and drop-out rate were < 1%. In total, 50/6003 (0.8%) and 355/5026 (7.1%) sampled individuals were hsRDT positive in Artibonite and Grand'Anse, respectively. Over half of all infections in both regions were identified at health facilities. Being male and having a current or reported fever in the previous 2 weeks were consistently identified with increased odds of being hsRDT positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Surveys in churches were problematic because of logistical and recruitment issues. However, EAG surveys in health facilities and primary schools provided granular information about malaria burden within two departments in Haiti. The EAG surveys were able to identify residual foci of transmission that were missed by recent national surveys. Non-care seeking and/or asymptomatic malaria infections can be identified in this alternative surveillance tool, facilitating data-driven decision-making for improved targeting of interventions.

Risk Factors for Malaria Infection and Seropositivity in the Elimination Area of Grand'Anse, Haiti: A Case-Control Study among Febrile Individuals Seeking Treatment at Public Health Facilities

The island of Hispaniola aims to eliminate malaria by 2025; however, there are limited data to describe epidemiologic risk factors for malaria in this setting. A prospective case–control study was conducted at four health facilities in southwest Haiti, aiming to describe factors influencing the risk of current and past malaria infection. Cases were defined as individuals attending facilities with current or recent fever and positive malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT), while controls were those with current or recent fever and RDT negative. Serological markers of recent and cumulative exposure to Plasmodium were assessed using the multiplex bead assay from dried blood spots and used for alternate case definitions. Kuldorff’s spatial scan statistic was used to identify local clusters of infection or exposure. Logistic regression models were used to assess potential risk factors for RDT positivity and recent exposure markers, including age-group, gender, and recruiting health facility as group-matching variables. A total of 192 cases (RDT positive) and 915 controls (RDT negative) were recruited. Consistent spatial clusters were identified for all three infection and exposure metrics, indicating temporal stability of malaria transmission at these sites. Risk factors included remoteness from health facilities and household construction, furthermore, insecticide-treated net ownership or use was associated with reduced odds of RDT positivity. These findings indicate the malaria risk in Grand’Anse is driven primarily by location. Travel, occupation, and other behavioral factors were not associated with malaria. These data can support the National Malaria Program to refine and target their intervention approaches, and to move toward elimination.

Selection of Antibody Responses Associated With Plasmodium falciparum Infections in the Context of Malaria Elimination

In our aim to eliminate malaria, more sensitive tools to detect residual transmission are quickly becoming essential. Antimalarial antibody responses persist in the blood after a malaria infection and provide a wider window to detect exposure to infection compared to parasite detection metrics. Here, we aimed to select antibody responses associated with recent and cumulative exposure to malaria using cross-sectional survey data from Haiti, an elimination setting. Using a multiplex bead assay, we generated data for antibody responses (immunoglobulin G) to 23 Plasmodium falciparum targets in 29,481 participants across three surveys. This included one community-based survey in which participants were enrolled during household visits and two sentinel group surveys in which participants were enrolled at schools and health facilities. First, we correlated continuous antibody responses with age (Spearman) to determine which showed strong age-related associations indicating accumulation over time with limited loss. AMA-1 and MSP-119 antibody levels showed the strongest correlation with age (0.47 and 0.43, p < 0.001) in the community-based survey, which was most representative of the underlying age structure of the population, thus seropositivity to either of these antibodies was considered representative of cumulative exposure to malaria. Next, in the absence of a gold standard for recent exposure, we included antibody responses to the remaining targets to predict highly sensitive rapid diagnostic test (hsRDT) status using receiver operating characteristic curves. For this, only data from the survey with the highest hsRDT prevalence was used (7.2%; 348/4,849). The performance of the top two antigens in the training dataset (two-thirds of the dataset; n = 3,204)-Etramp 5 ag 1 and GLURP-R0 (area-under-the-curve, AUC, 0.892 and 0.825, respectively)-was confirmed in the test dataset (remaining one-third of the dataset; n = 1,652, AUC 0.903 and 0.848, respectively). As no further improvement was seen by combining seropositivity to GLURP-R0 and Etramp 5 ag 1 (p = 0.266), seropositivity to Etramp 5 ag 1 alone was selected as representative of current or recent exposure to malaria. The validation of antibody responses associated with these exposure histories simplifies analyses and interpretation of antibody data and facilitates the application of results to evaluate programs.

Quality control of multiplex antibody detection in samples from large-scale surveys: the example of malaria in Haiti

Measuring antimalarial antibodies can estimate transmission in a population. To compare outputs, standardized laboratory testing is required. Here we describe the in-country establishment and quality control (QC) of a multiplex bead assay (MBA) for three sero-surveys in Haiti. Total IgG data against 21 antigens were collected for 32,758 participants. Titration curves of hyperimmune sera were included on assay plates, assay signals underwent 5-parameter regression, and inspection of the median and interquartile range (IQR) for the y-inflection point was used to determine assay precision. The medians and IQRs were similar for Surveys 1 and 2 for most antigens, while the IQRs increased for some antigens in Survey 3. Levey-Jennings charts for selected antigens provided a pass/fail criterion for each assay plate and, of 387 assay plates, 13 (3.4%) were repeated. Individual samples failed if IgG binding to the generic glutathione-S-transferase protein was observed, with 659 (2.0%) samples failing. An additional 455 (1.4%) observations failed due to low bead numbers (<20/analyte). The final dataset included 609,438 anti-malaria IgG data points from 32,099 participants; 96.6% of all potential data points if no QC failures had occurred. The MBA can be deployed with high-throughput data collection and low inter-plate variability while ensuring data quality.

Assessing the role of the private sector in surveillance for malaria elimination in Haiti and the Dominican Republic: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Haiti and the Dominican Republic (DR) are targeting malaria elimination by 2022. The private health sector has been relatively unengaged in these efforts, even though most primary health care in Haiti is provided by non-state actors, and many people use traditional medicine. Data on private health sector participation in malaria elimination efforts are lacking, as are data on care-seeking behaviour of patients in the private health sector. This study sought to describe the role of private health sector providers, care-seeking behaviour of individuals at high risk of malaria, and possible means of engaging the private health sector in Hispaniola's malaria elimination efforts.

METHODS

In-depth interviews with 26 key informants (e.g. government officials), 62 private providers, and 63 patients of private providers, as well as 12 focus group discussions (FGDs) with community members, were conducted within seven study sites in Haiti and the DR. FGDs focused on local definitions of the private health sector and identified private providers for interview recruitment, while interviews focused on private health sector participation in malaria elimination activities and treatment-seeking behaviour of febrile individuals.

RESULTS

Interviews revealed that self-medication is the most common first step in the trajectory of care for fevers in both Haiti and the DR. Traditional medicine is more commonly used in Haiti than in the DR, with many patients seeking care from traditional healers before, during, and/or after care in the formal health sector. Private providers were interested in participating in malaria elimination efforts but emphasized the need for ongoing support and training. Key informants agreed that the private health sector needs to be engaged, especially traditional healers in Haiti. The Haitian migrant population was reported to be one of the most at-risk groups by participants from both countries.

CONCLUSION

Malaria elimination efforts across Hispaniola could be enhanced by engaging traditional healers in Haiti and other private providers with ongoing support and trainings; directing educational messaging to encourage proper treatment-seeking behaviour; and refining cross-border strategies for surveillance of the high-risk migrant population. Increasing distribution of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and bi-therapy to select private health sector facilities, accompanied by adopting regulatory policies, could help increase numbers of reported and correctly treated malaria cases.

High-throughput malaria serosurveillance using a one-step multiplex bead assay

Background

Serological data indicating the presence and level of antibodies against infectious disease antigens provides indicators of exposure and transmission patterns in a population. Laboratory testing for large-scale serosurveys is often hindered by time-consuming immunoassays that employ multiple tandem steps. Some nations have recently begun using malaria serosurveillance data to make inferences about the malaria exposure in their populations, and serosurveys have grown increasingly larger as more accurate estimates are desired. Presented here is a novel approach of antibody detection using bead-based immunoassay that involves incubating all assay reagents concurrently overnight.

Results

A serosurvey in was performed in Haiti in early 2017 with both sera (n = 712) and dried blood spots (DBS, n = 796) collected for the same participants. The Luminex^® multiplex bead-based assay (MBA) was used to detect total IgG against 8 malaria antigens: PfMSP1, PvMSP1, PmMSP1, PfCSP, PfAMA1, PfLSA1, PfGLURP-R0, PfHRP2. All sera and DBS samples were assayed by MBA using a standard immunoassay protocol with multiple steps, as well a protocol where sample and all reagents were incubated together overnight—termed here the OneStep assay. When compared to a standard multi-step assay, this OneStep assay amplified the assay signal for IgG detection for all 8 malaria antigens. The greatest increases in assay signal were seen at the low- and mid-range IgG titers and were indicative of an enhancement in the analyte detection, not simply an increase in the background signal of the assay. Seroprevalence estimates were generally similar for this sample Haitian population for all antigens regardless of serum or DBS sample type or assay protocol used.

Conclusions

When using the MBA for IgG detection, overnight incubation for the test sample and all assay reagents greatly minimized hands-on time for laboratory staff. Enhanced IgG signal was observed with the OneStep assay for all 8 malaria antigens employed in this study, and seroprevalence estimates for this sample population were similar regardless of assay protocol used. This overnight incubation protocol has the potential to be deployed for large-scale malaria serosurveys for the high-throughput and timely collection of antibody data, particularly for malaria seroprevalence estimates.

Mass drug administration can be a valuable addition to the malaria elimination toolbox

The Global Technical Strategy 2016-2030 of the World Health Organization (WHO) has the ambitious goal of malaria being eliminated from at least 35 countries by 2030. However, in areas with once-stable malaria transmission, the reservoir of human infection may be intermittently symptomatic or fully silent yet still lead to transmission, posing a serious challenge to elimination. Mass drug administration (MDA), defined as the provision of a therapeutic dose of an effective anti-malarial drug to the entire target population, irrespective of infection status or symptoms, is one strategy to combat the silent human reservoir of infection. MDA is currently recommended by the WHO as a potential strategy for the elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in areas approaching interruption of transmission, given the prerequisites of good access to case management, effective vector control and surveillance, and limited potential for reintroduction. Recent community randomized controlled trials of MDA with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, implemented as part of a comprehensive package of interventions, have shown this strategy to be safe and effective in significantly lowering the malaria burden in pre-elimination settings. Here it is argued that effectively implemented MDA should be kept in the elimination toolbox as a potential strategy for P. falciparum elimination in a variety of settings, including islands, appropriate low transmission settings, and in epidemics and complex emergencies. Effectively implemented MDA using an ACT has been shown to be safe, unrelated to the emergence of drug resistance, and may play an important role in sufficiently lowering the malaria burden to allow malaria transmission foci to be more easily identified, and to allow elimination programmes to more feasibly implement case-based surveillance and follow-up activities. To be most impactful and guard against drug resistance, MDA should use an ACT, achieve high programmatic coverage and adherence, be implemented when transmission is lowest in areas of limited risk of immediate parasite reintroduction, and must always be implemented only once good access to case management, high coverage of effective vector control, and strong surveillance have been achieved. If these considerations are taken into account, MDA should prove to be a valuable tool for the malaria elimination toolbox.

Theory of reactive interventions in the elimination and control of malaria

Background

Reactive case detection (RCD) is an integral part of many malaria control and elimination programmes and can be conceived of as a way of gradually decreasing transmission. However, it is unclear under what circumstances RCD may have a substantial impact on prevalence, how likely it is to lead to local elimination, or how effective it needs to be to prevent reintroduction after transmission has been interrupted.

Methods

Analyses and simulations of a discrete time compartmental susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) model were used to understand the mechanisms of how RCD changes transmission dynamics and estimate the impact of RCD programmes in a range of settings with varying patterns of transmission potential and programme characteristics. Prevalence survey data from recent studies in Zambia were used to capture the effects of spatial clustering of patent infections.

Results

RCD proved most effective at low prevalence. Increasing the number of index cases followed was more important than increasing the number of neighbours tested per index case. Elimination was achieved only in simulations of situations with very low transmission intensity and following many index cases. However, RCD appears to be helpful in maintaining the disease-free state after achieving malaria elimination (through other interventions).

Conclusion

RCD alone can eliminate malaria in only a very limited range of settings, where transmission potential is very low, and improving the coverage of RCD has little effect on this range. In other settings, it is likely to reduce disease burden. RCD may also help maintain the disease-free state in the face of imported infections. Prevalence survey data can be used to estimate a targeting ratio (the ratio of prevalence found through RCD to that in the general population) which is an important determinant of the effect of RCD.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-019-2882-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Use of Routine Health Information System Data to Evaluate Impact of Malaria Control Interventions in Zanzibar, Tanzania from 2000 to 2015

BACKGROUND

Impact evaluations allow countries to assess public health gains achieved through malaria investments. This study uses routine health management information system (HMIS) data from Zanzibar to describe changes in confirmed malaria incidence and impact of case management and vector control interventions during 2000-2015.

METHODS

HMIS data from 129 (82%) public outpatient facilities were analyzed using interrupted time series models to estimate the impact of artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT), indoor residual spray, and long-lasting insecticidal nets. Evaluation periods were defined as pre-intervention (January 2000 to August 2003), ACT-only (September 2003 to December 2005) and ACT plus vector control (2006-2015).

FINDINGS

After accounting for climate, seasonality, diagnostic testing rates, and outpatient attendance, average monthly incidence of confirmed malaria showed no trend over the pre-intervention period 2000-2003 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.998, 95% CI 0.995-1.000). During the ACT-only period (2003-2005), the average monthly malaria incidence rate declined compared to the pre-intervention period, showing an overall declining trend during the ACT-only period (IRR 0.984, 95% CI 0.978-0.990). There was no intercept change at the start of the ACT-only period (IRR 1.081, 95% CI 0.968-1.208), but a drop in intercept was identified at the start of the ACT plus vector control period (IRR 0.683, 95% CI 0.597-0.780). During the ACT plus vector control period (2006-2015), the rate of decline in average monthly malaria incidence slowed compared to the ACT-only period, but the incidence rate continued to show an overall slight declining trend during 2006-2015 (IRR 0.993, 95% CI 0.992-0.994).

INTERPRETATION

This study presents a rigorous approach to the use of HMIS data in evaluating the impact of malaria control interventions. Evidence is presented for a rapid decline in malaria incidence during the period of ACT roll out compared to pre-intervention, with a rapid drop in malaria incidence following introduction of vector control and a slower declining incidence trend thereafter.

Distribution of Plasmodium species and assessment of performance of diagnostic tools used during a malaria survey in Southern and Western Provinces of Zambia

Background

Zambia continues to make strides in reducing malaria burden through the use of proven malaria interventions and has recently pledged to eliminate malaria by 2021. Case management services have been scaled up at community level with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) providing antigen-based detection of falciparum malaria only. Key to national malaria elimination goals is the ability to identify, treat and eliminate all Plasmodium species. This study sought to determine the distribution of non-falciparum malaria and assess the performance of diagnostic tests for Plasmodium falciparum in Western and Southern Provinces of Zambia, two provinces planned for early malaria elimination.

Methods

A sub-set of individuals’ data and samples from a cross-sectional household survey, conducted during peak malaria transmission season in April and May 2017, was used. The survey collected socio-demographic information on household members and coverage of malaria interventions. Malaria testing was done on respondents of all ages using blood smears and RDTs while dried blood spots were collected on filter papers for analysis using photo-induced electron transfer polymerase chain reaction (PET-PCR). Slides were stained using Giemsa stain and examined by microscopy for malaria parasites.

Results

From the 1567 individuals included, the overall prevalence of malaria was 19.4% (CI 17.5–21.4) by PCR, 19.3% (CI 17.4–21.4) by RDT and 12.9% (CI 11.3–14.7) by microscopy. Using PET-PCR as the gold standard, RDTs showed a sensitivity of 75.7% (CI 70.4–80.4) and specificity of 94.2% (CI 92.8–95.4). The positive predictive value (PPV) was 75.9% (CI 70.7–80.6) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (CI 92.1–95.4). In contrast, microscopy for sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV values were 56.9% (CI 51.1–62.5), 97.7% (CI 96.7–98.5), 85.6% (CI 80.0–90.2), 90.4% (CI 88.7–91.9), respectively. Non-falciparum infections were found only in Western Province, where 11.6% of P. falciparum infections were co-infections with Plasmodium ovale or Plasmodium malariae.

Conclusion

From the sub-set of survey data analysed, non-falciparum species are present and occurred as mixed infections. As expected, PET-PCR was slightly more sensitive than both malaria RDTs and microscopy to detecting malaria infections.

Priority use cases for antibody-detecting assays of recent malaria exposure as tools to achieve and sustain malaria elimination

Measurement of malaria specific antibody responses represents a practical and informative method for malaria control programs to assess recent exposure to infection. Technical advances in recombinant antigen production, serological screening platforms, and analytical methods have enabled the identification of several target antigens for laboratory based and point-of-contact tests. Questions remain as to how these serological assays can best be integrated into malaria surveillance activities to inform programmatic decision-making. This report synthesizes discussions from a convening at Institut Pasteur in Paris in June 2017 aimed at defining practical and informative use cases for serology applications and highlights five programmatic uses for serological assays including: documenting the absence of transmission; stratification of transmission; measuring the effect of interventions; informing a decentralized immediate response;  and testing and treating P. vivax hypnozoite carriers.

Measuring malaria diagnosis and treatment coverage in population-based surveys: a recall validation study in Mali among caregivers of febrile children under 5 years

BACKGROUND

Nationally-representative household surveys are the standard approach to monitor access to and treatment with artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) among children under 5 years (U5), however these indicators are dependent on caregivers' recall of the treatment received.

METHODS

A prospective case-control study was performed in Mali to validate caregivers' recall of treatment received by U5s when seeking care for fever from rural and urban public health facilities, community health workers and urban private facilities. Clinician-recorded consultation details were the gold standard. Consenting caregivers were followed-up for interview at home within 2 weeks using standard questions from Demographic and Health Surveys and Malaria Indicator Surveys.

RESULTS

Among 1602 caregivers, sensitivity of recalling that the child received a finger/heel prick was 91.5%, with specificity 85.7%. Caregivers' recall of a positive malaria test result had sensitivity 96.2% with specificity 59.7%. Irrespective of diagnostic test result, the sensitivity and specificity of caregivers' recalling a malaria diagnosis made by the health worker were 74.3% and 74.9%, respectively. Caregivers' recall of ACT being given had sensitivity of 43.2% and specificity 90.2%, while recall that any anti-malarial was given had sensitivity 59.0% and specificity 82.7%. Correcting caregivers' response of treatment received using a combination of a visual aid with photographs of common drugs for fever, prescription documents and retained packaging changed ACT recall sensitivity and specificity to 91.5% and 71.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings indicate that caregivers' responses during household surveys are valid when assessing if a child received a finger/heel prick during a consultation in the previous 2 weeks, and if the malaria test result was positive. Recall of ACT treatment received by U5s was poor when based on interview response only, but was substantially improved when incorporating visual aids, prescriptions and drug packaging review.

Validation studies for population-based intervention coverage indicators: design, analysis, and interpretation

Background

Population-based intervention coverage indicators are widely used to track country and program progress in improving health and to evaluate health programs. Indicator validation studies that compare survey responses to a “gold standard” measure are useful to understand whether the indicator provides accurate information. The Improving Coverage Measurement (ICM) Core Group has developed and implemented a standard approach to validating coverage indicators measured in household surveys, described in this paper.

Methods

The general design of these studies includes measurement of true health status and intervention receipt (gold standard), followed by interviews with the individuals observed, and a comparison of the observations (gold standard) to the responses to survey questions. The gold standard should use a data source external to the respondent to document need for and receipt of an intervention. Most frequently, this is accomplished through direct observation of clinical care, and/or use of a study-trained clinician to obtain a gold standard diagnosis. Follow-up interviews with respondents should employ standard survey questions, where they exist, as well as alternative or additional questions that can be compared against the standard household survey questions.

Results

Indicator validation studies should report on participation at every stage, and provide data on reasons for non-participation. Metrics of individual validity (sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and population-level validity (inflation factor) should be reported, as well as the percent of survey responses that are “don’t know” or missing. Associations between interviewer and participant characteristics and measures of validity should be assessed and reported.

Conclusions

These methods allow respondent-reported coverage measures to be validated against more objective measures of need for and receipt of an intervention, and should be considered together with cognitive interviewing, discriminative validity, or reliability testing to inform decisions about which indicators to include in household surveys. Public health researchers should assess the evidence for validity of existing and proposed household survey coverage indicators and consider validation studies to fill evidence gaps.

Evaluation of methods for linking household and health care provider data to estimate effective coverage of management of child illness: results of a pilot study in Southern Province, Zambia

Background

Existing population-based surveys have limited accuracy for estimating the coverage and quality of management of child illness. Linking household survey data with health care provider assessments has been proposed as a means of generating more informative population-level estimates of effective coverage, but methodological issues need to be addressed.

Methods

A 2016 survey estimated effective coverage of management of child illness in Southern Province, Zambia, using multiple methods for linking temporally and geographically proximate household and health care provider data. Mothers of children <5 years were surveyed about seeking care for child illness. Information on health care providers’ capacity to manage child illness, or structural quality, was assessed using case scenarios and a tool modeled on the WHO Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA). Each sick child was assigned the structural quality score of their stated (exact-match) source of care. Effective coverage was calculated as the average structural quality experienced by all sick children. Children were also ecologically linked to providers using measures of geographic proximity, with and without data on non-facility providers, to assess the effects of these linking methods on effective coverage estimates.

Results

Data were collected on 83 providers and 385 children with fever, diarrhea, and/or symptoms of ARI in the preceding 2 weeks. Most children sought care from government facilities or community-based agents (CBAs). Effective coverage of management of child illness estimated through exact-match linking was approximately 15-points lower in each stratum than coverage of seeking skilled care due to providers’ limited structural quality. Estimates generated using most measures of geographic proximity were similar to the exact-match estimate, with the exception of the kernel density estimation method in the urban area. Estimates of coverage in rural areas were greatly reduced across all methods using facility-only data if seeking care from CBAs was treated as unskilled care.

Conclusions

Linking household and provider data may generate more informative estimates of effective coverage of management of child illness. Ecological linking with provider data on a sample of all skilled providers may be as effective as exact-match linking in areas with low variation in structural quality within a provider category or minimal provider bypassing.

Validity of maternal report of care-seeking for childhood illness

Background

Accurate data on care-seeking for child illness are needed to improve public health programs and reduce child mortality. The accuracy of maternal report of care-seeking for child illness as collected through household surveys has not been validated.

Methods

A 2016 survey compared reported care-seeking against a gold-standard of health care provider documented care-seeking events among a random sample of mothers of children <5 years in Southern Province, Zambia. Enrolled children were assigned cards with unique barcodes. Seventy-five health care providers were given smartphones with a barcode reader and instructed to scan the cards of participating children seeking care at the source, generating an electronic record of the care-seeking event. Additionally, providers gave all caregivers accessing care for a child <5 years provider-specific tokens used to verify the point of care during the household survey. Reported care-seeking events were ascertained in each household using a questionnaire modeled off the Zambia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) / Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). The accuracy of maternal report of care-seeking behavior was estimated by comparing care-seeking events reported by mothers against provider-documented events.

Results

Data were collected on 384 children with fever, diarrhea, and/or symptoms of ARI in the preceding 2 weeks. Most children sought care from government facilities or community-based agents (CBAs). We found high sensitivity (Rural: 0.91, 95% confidence interval CI 0.84-0.95; Urban: 0.98, 95% CI 0.92-0.99) and reasonable specificity (Rural: 0.71, 95% CI 0.57-0.82; Urban: 0.76, 95% CI 0.62-0.85) of maternal report of care-seeking for child illness by type of provider. Maternal report of any care-seeking and seeking care from a skilled provider had slightly higher sensitivity and specificity. Seeking care from a traditional practitioner was associated with lower odds of accurately reporting the event, while seeking care from a government provider was associated with greater odds of accurate report. The measure resulted in a slight overestimation of true care-seeking behavior in the study population.

Conclusions

Maternal report is a valid measure of care-seeking for child illness in settings with high utilization of public sector providers. The study findings were limited by the low diversity in care-seeking practices for child illness and the exclusion of shops.

Mapping multiple components of malaria risk for improved targeting of elimination interventions

There is a long history of considering the constituent components of malaria risk and the malaria transmission cycle via the use of mathematical models, yet strategic planning in endemic countries tends not to take full advantage of available disease intelligence to tailor interventions. National malaria programmes typically make operational decisions about where to implement vector control and surveillance activities based upon simple categorizations of annual parasite incidence. With technological advances, an enormous opportunity exists to better target specific malaria interventions to the places where they will have greatest impact by mapping and evaluating metrics related to a variety of risk components, each of which describes a different facet of the transmission cycle. Here, these components and their implications for operational decision-making are reviewed. For each component, related mappable malaria metrics are also described which may be measured and evaluated by malaria programmes seeking to better understand the determinants of malaria risk. Implementing tailored programmes based on knowledge of the heterogeneous distribution of the drivers of malaria transmission rather than only consideration of traditional metrics such as case incidence has the potential to result in substantial improvements in decision-making. As programmes improve their ability to prioritize their available tools to the places where evidence suggests they will be most effective, elimination aspirations may become increasingly feasible.

Impact of Insecticide-Treated Net Ownership on All-Cause Child Mortality in Malawi, 2006-2010

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) have been shown to be highly effective at reducing malaria morbidity and mortality in children. However, there are limited studies that assess the association between increasing ITN coverage and child mortality over time, at the national level, and under programmatic conditions. Two analytic approaches were used to examine this association: a retrospective cohort analysis of individual children and a district-level ecologic analysis. To evaluate the association between household ITN ownership and all-cause child mortality (ACCM) at the individual level, data from the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) were modeled in a Cox proportional hazards framework while controlling for numerous environmental, household, and individual confounders through the use of exact matching. To evaluate population-level association between ITN ownership and ACCM between 2006 and 2010, program ITN distribution data and mortality data from the 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey and the 2010 DHS were aggregated at the district level and modeled using negative binomial regression. In the Cox model controlling for household, child and maternal health factors, children between 1 and 59 months in households owning an ITN had significantly lower mortality compared with those without an ITN (hazard ratio = 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.62–90). In the district-level model, higher ITN ownership was significantly associated with lower ACCM (incidence rate ratio = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.60–0.98). These findings suggest that increasing ITN ownership may have contributed to the decline in ACCM during 2006–2010 in Malawi and represent a novel use of district-level data from nationally representative surveys.

Framework for Evaluating the Health Impact of the Scale-Up of Malaria Control Interventions on All-Cause Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa

Concerted efforts from national and international partners have scaled up malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, diagnostics, prompt and effective treatment of malaria cases, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scale-up warrants an assessment of its health impact to guide future efforts and investments; however, measuring malaria-specific mortality and the overall impact of malaria control interventions remains challenging. In 2007, Roll Back Malaria's Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group proposed a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of full-coverage malaria control interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-burden SSA countries. Recently, several evaluations have contributed new ideas and lessons to strengthen this plausibility design. This paper harnesses that new evaluation experience to expand the framework, with additional features, such as stratification, to examine subgroups most likely to experience improvement if control programs are working; the use of a national platform framework; and analysis of complete birth histories from national household surveys. The refined framework has shown that, despite persisting data challenges, combining multiple sources of data, considering potential contributions from both fundamental and proximate contextual factors, and conducting subnational analyses allows identification of the plausible contributions of malaria control interventions on malaria morbidity and mortality.

Methodological Considerations for Use of Routine Health Information System Data to Evaluate Malaria Program Impact in an Era of Declining Malaria Transmission

Coverage of malaria control interventions is increasing dramatically across endemic countries. Evaluating the impact of malaria control programs and specific interventions on health indicators is essential to enable countries to select the most effective and appropriate combination of tools to accelerate progress or proceed toward malaria elimination. When key malaria interventions have been proven effective under controlled settings, further evaluations of the impact of the intervention using randomized approaches may not be appropriate or ethical. Alternatives to randomized controlled trials are therefore required for rigorous evaluation under conditions of routine program delivery. Routine health management information system (HMIS) data are a potentially rich source of data for impact evaluation, but have been underused in impact evaluation due to concerns over internal validity, completeness, and potential bias in estimates of program or intervention impact. A range of methodologies were identified that have been used for impact evaluations with malaria outcome indicators generated from HMIS data. Methods used to maximize internal validity of HMIS data are presented, together with recommendations on reducing bias in impact estimates. Interrupted time series and dose-response analyses are proposed as the strongest quasi-experimental impact evaluation designs for analysis of malaria outcome indicators from routine HMIS data. Interrupted time series analysis compares the outcome trend and level before and after the introduction of an intervention, set of interventions or program. The dose-response national platform approach explores associations between intervention coverage or program intensity and the outcome at a subnational (district or health facility catchment) level.