Location, location, location: environmental factors better predict malaria-positive individuals during reactive case detection than index case demographics in Southern Province, Zambia

Testing and treatment for malaria elimination: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Global interest in malaria elimination has prompted research on active test and treat (TaT) strategies.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted to assess the effectiveness of TaT strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 72 empirical research and 24 modelling studies were identified, mainly focused on proactive mass TaT (MTaT) and reactive case detection (RACD) in higher and lower transmission settings, respectively. Ten intervention studies compared MTaT to no MTaT and the evidence for impact on malaria incidence was weak. No intervention studies compared RACD to no RACD. Compared to passive case detection (PCD) alone, PCD + RACD using standard diagnostics increased infection detection 52.7% and 11.3% in low and very low transmission settings, respectively. Using molecular methods increased this detection of infections by 1.4- and 1.1-fold, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Results suggest MTaT is not effective for reducing transmission. By increasing case detection, surveillance data provided by RACD may indirectly reduce transmission by informing coordinated responses of intervention targeting.

Reactive Case Detection Strategy for Malaria Control and Elimination: A 12 Year Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis from 25 Malaria-Endemic Countries

Reactive case detection (RACD) is the screening of household members and neighbors of index cases reported in passive surveillance. This strategy seeks asymptomatic infections and provides treatment to break transmission without testing or treating the entire population. This review discusses and highlights RACD as a recommended strategy for the detection and elimination of asymptomatic malaria as it pertains in different countries. Relevant studies published between January 2010 and September 2022 were identified mainly through PubMed and Google Scholar. Search terms included "malaria and reactive case detection", "contact tracing", "focal screening", "case investigation", "focal screen and treat". MedCalc Software was used for data analysis, and the findings from the pooled studies were analyzed using a fixed-effect model. Summary outcomes were then presented using forest plots and tables. Fifty-four (54) studies were systematically reviewed. Of these studies, 7 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in individuals living with an index case < 5 years old, 13 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in an index case household member compared with a neighbor of an index case, and 29 met the eligibility criteria based on risk of malaria infection in individuals living with index cases, and were included in the meta-analysis. Individuals living in index case households with an average risk of 2.576 (2.540-2.612) were more at risk of malaria infection and showed pooled results of high variation heterogeneity chi-square = 235.600, (p < 0.0001) I² = 98.88 [97.87-99.89]. The pooled results showed that neighbors of index cases were 0.352 [0.301-0.412] times more likely to have a malaria infection relative to index case household members, and this result was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The identification and treatment of infectious reservoirs is critical to successful malaria elimination. Evidence to support the clustering of infections in neighborhoods, which necessitates the inclusion of neighboring households as part of the RACD strategy, was presented in this review.

Spatial-temporal pattern of malaria in Burkina Faso from 2013 to 2020

Despite the implementation of different strategies to fight against malaria in Burkina Faso since 2005, it remains today the leading cause of hospitalization and death. Adapting interventions to the spatial and temporal distribution of malaria could help to reduce this burden. This study aims to determine the structure and stability of malaria hotspots in Burkina Faso, with the objective of adapting interventions at small geographical scales.

Data on malaria cases from 2013 to 2020 were acquired at municipalities level. Municipality-wise malaria endemicity levels were mapped through geographical information system (GIS) tools. Spatial statistical analysis using Kulldoff sweeps were carried out to identify malaria hotspots. Then we mapped the monthly malaria risk.

Malaria is endemic in all the municipalities of Burkina Faso. However, two stable main spatial clusters (South-Western and Eastern part of the country) are emerging with seasonal reinforcement.

Interventions targeting the identified clusters could significantly reduce the incidence of malaria in Burkina Faso. This also prompts for further studies to identify the local determinants of this high transmission for the future success of malaria control.

A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Malaria Test Positivity Outcomes and Programme Interventions in Low Transmission Settings in Southern Africa, 2000-2021

Malaria is one of the most significant causes of mortality and morbidity globally, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries. It harmfully disturbs the public’s health and the economic growth of many developing countries. Despite the massive effect of malaria transmission, the overall pooled proportion of malaria positivity rate in Southern Africa is still elusive. Therefore, the objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to pool estimates of the incidence of the malaria positivity rate, which is the first of its kind in South African countries. A literature search is performed to identify all published articles reporting the incidence of malaria positivity in Southern Africa. Out of the 3359 articles identified, 17 studies meet the inclusion for systematic review and meta-analysis. In addition, because substantial heterogeneity is expected due to the studies being extracted from the universal population, random-effects meta-analyses are carried out to pool the incidence of the malaria positivity rate from diverse diagnostic methods. The result reveals that between-study variability is high (τ2 = 0.003; heterogeneity I2 = 99.91% with heterogeneity chi-square χ2 = 18,143.95, degree of freedom = 16 and a p-value < 0.0001) with the overall random pooled incidence of 10% (95%CI: 8−13%, I2 = 99.91%) in the malaria positivity rate. According to the diagnostic method called pooled incidence estimate, the rapid diagnostic test (RDT) is the leading diagnostic method (17%, 95%CI: 11−24%, I2 = 99.95%), followed by RDT and qPCR and RDT and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), respectively, found to be (3%, 95%CI: 2−3%, I2 = 0%) and (2%, 95%CI: 1−3%, I2 = 97.94%).Findings of the present study suggest high malaria positive incidence in the region. This implies that malaria control and elimination programmes towards malaria elimination could be negatively impacted and cause delays in actualising malaria elimination set dates. Further studies consisting of larger samples and continuous evaluation of malaria control programmes are recommended.

Reactive Case Detection (RACD) and foci investigation strategies in malaria control and elimination: a review

Background

Reactive case detection (RACD) and foci investigation are key strategies in malaria elimination and prevention of its re-establishment. They are a key part of surveillance that has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be considered as a core intervention and as one of the three pillars of the Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016–2030.

Methods

A search using the key words “Reactive Case Detection”, “RACD”, “RCD” and “Malaria” was carried out in PubMed, Scopus, Taylor and Francis online databases for studies published until 31st July 2019. The inclusion criteria for selection of articles for review included (1) how RACD is implemented in each country; (2) challenges faced in RACD implementation; (3) suggestions on how the effectiveness of RACD process can be improved.

Results

411 titles were identified, 41 full text articles were screened and 29 were found eligible for inclusion in the review. Published literature on RACD, and case and foci investigations has mostly assessed the process of the activity. Most studies have documented that the yield of positives in RACD has been highest in the index case’s household and the immediate neighbourhood of the index case. Microscopy and RDTs are the common tests used in RACD. The guidelines for case and foci investigation, and RACD and PACD, are not universally adopted and are country-specific. Some of the limitations and challenges identified include lack of proper guidelines, logistic issues and problems with public compliance.

Conclusions

Although there is no documented evidence that RACD is useful in malaria elimination settings, most authors have opined that RACD is necessary for malaria elimination. Lack of knowledge in the target populations, a target radius and how to carry out the RACD process is a major challenge in the decision-making process.

Improving the efficiency of reactive case detection for malaria elimination in southern Zambia: a cross-sectional study

Background

Reactive case detection (RCD) seeks to enhance malaria surveillance and control by identifying and treating parasitaemic individuals residing near index cases. In Zambia, this strategy starts with passive detection of symptomatic incident malaria cases at local health facilities or by community health workers, with subsequent home visits to screen-and-treat residents in the index case and neighbouring (secondary) households within a 140-m radius using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). However, a small circular radius may not be the most efficient strategy to identify parasitaemic individuals in low-endemic areas with hotspots of malaria transmission. To evaluate if RCD efficiency could be improved by increasing the probability of identifying parasitaemic residents, environmental risk factors and a larger screening radius (250 m) were assessed in a region of low malaria endemicity.

Methods

Between January 12, 2015 and July 26, 2017, 4170 individuals residing in 158 index and 531 secondary households were enrolled and completed a baseline questionnaire in the catchment area of Macha Hospital in Choma District, Southern Province, Zambia. Plasmodium falciparum prevalence was measured using PfHRP2 RDTs and quantitative PCR (qPCR). A Quickbird™ high-resolution satellite image of the catchment area was used to create environmental risk factors in ArcGIS, and generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate associations between risk factors and secondary households with parasitaemic individuals.

Results

The parasite prevalence in secondary (non-index case) households was 0.7% by RDT and 1.8% by qPCR. Overall, 8.5% (n = 45) of secondary households had at least one resident with parasitaemia by qPCR or RDT. The risk of a secondary household having a parasitaemic resident was significantly increased in proximity to higher order streams and marginally with increasing distance from index households. The adjusted OR for proximity to third- and fifth-order streams were 2.97 (95% CI 1.04–8.42) and 2.30 (95% CI 1.04–5.09), respectively, and that for distance to index households for each 50 m was 1.24 (95% CI 0.98–1.58).

Conclusion

Applying proximity to streams as a screening tool, 16% (n = 3) more malaria-positive secondary households were identified compared to using a 140-m circular screening radius. This analysis highlights the potential use of environmental risk factors as a screening strategy to increase RCD efficiency.

The use of spatial and genetic tools to assess Plasmodium falciparum transmission in Lusaka, Zambia between 2011 and 2015

BACKGROUND

Zambia has set itself the ambitious target of eliminating malaria by 2021. To continue tracking transmission to zero, new interventions, tools and approaches are required.

METHODS

Urban reactive case detection (RCD) was performed in Lusaka city from 2011 to 2015 to better understand the location and drivers of malaria transmission. Briefly, index cases were followed to their home and all consenting individuals living in the index house and nine proximal houses were tested with a malaria rapid diagnostic test and treated if positive. A brief survey was performed and for certain responses, a dried blood spot sample collected for genetic analysis. Aggregate health facility data, individual RCD response data and genetic results were analysed spatially and against environmental correlates.

RESULTS

Total number of malaria cases remained relatively constant, while the average age of incident cases and the proportion of incident cases reporting recent travel both increased. The estimated R₀ in Lusaka was < 1 throughout the study period. RCD responses performed within 250 m of uninhabited/vacant land were associated with a higher probability of identifying additional infections.

CONCLUSIONS

Evidence suggests that the majority of malaria infections are imported from outside Lusaka. However there remains some level of local transmission occurring on the periphery of urban settlements, namely in the wet season. Unfortunately, due to the higher-than-expected complexity of infections and the small number of samples tested, genetic analysis was unable to identify any meaningful trends in the data.

Modelling reactive case detection strategies for interrupting transmission of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND

As areas move closer to malaria elimination, a combination of limited resources and increasing heterogeneity in case distribution and transmission favour a shift to targeted reactive interventions. Reactive case detection (RCD), the following up of additional individuals surrounding an index case, has the potential to target transmission pockets and identify asymptomatic cases in them. Current RCD implementation strategies vary, and it is unclear which are most effective in achieving elimination.

METHODS

OpenMalaria, an established individual-based stochastic model, was used to simulate RCD in a Zambia-like setting. The capacity to follow up index cases, the search radius, the initial transmission and the case management coverage were varied. Suitable settings were identified and probabilities of elimination and time to elimination estimated. The value of routinely collected prevalence and incidence data for predicting the success of RCD was assessed.

RESULTS

The results indicate that RCD with the aim of transmission interruption is only appropriate in settings where initial transmission is very low (annual entomological inoculation rate (EIR) 1-2 or prevalence approx. < 7-19% depending on case management levels). Every index case needs to be followed up, up to a maximum case-incidence threshold which defines the suitability threshold of settings for elimination using RCD. Increasing the search radius around index cases is always beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

RCD is highly resource intensive, requiring testing and treating of 400-500 people every week for 5-10 years for a reasonable chance of elimination in a Zambia-like setting.

Spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2011-2015

Background

Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of Burkina Faso, taking into account meteorological factors.

Methods

Drawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). Meteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. The Box–Jenkins ARIMA model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. The impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. A change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. For each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection.

Results

Malaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. The first and second PCA components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. The impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. A significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. Three transmission periods were detected: low (16.8–29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7–84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7–32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). The location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods.

Conclusion

This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria incidence around the capital Ouagadougou, in the central region of Burkina Faso. Despite increasing efforts in fighting the disease, malaria incidence remained high and increased over the period of study. Hotspots, particularly those detected for low transmission periods, should be investigated further to uncover the local environmental and behavioural factors of transmission, and hence to allow for the development of better targeted control strategies.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12936-018-2280-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Study protocol for a cluster randomised controlled factorial design trial to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of reactive focal mass drug administration and vector control to reduce malaria transmission in the low endemic setting of Namibia

INTRODUCTION

To interrupt malaria transmission, strategies must target the parasite reservoir in both humans and mosquitos. Testing of community members linked to an index case, termed reactive case detection (RACD), is commonly implemented in low transmission areas, though its impact may be limited by the sensitivity of current diagnostics. Indoor residual spraying (IRS) before malaria season is a cornerstone of vector control efforts. Despite their implementation in Namibia, a country approaching elimination, these methods have been met with recent plateaus in transmission reduction. This study evaluates the effectiveness and feasibility of two new targeted strategies, reactive focal mass drug administration (rfMDA) and reactive focal vector control (RAVC) in Namibia.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is an open-label cluster randomised controlled trial with 2×2 factorial design. The interventions include: rfMDA (presumptive treatment with artemether-lumefantrine (AL)) versus RACD (rapid diagnostic testing and treatment using AL) and RAVC (IRS with Acellic 300CS) versus no RAVC. Factorial design also enables comparison of the combined rfMDA+RAVC intervention to RACD. Participants living in 56 enumeration areas will be randomised to one of four arms: rfMDA, rfMDA+RAVC, RACD or RACD+RAVC. These interventions, triggered by index cases detected at health facilities, will be targeted to individuals residing within 500 m of an index. The primary outcome is cumulative incidence of locally acquired malaria detected at health facilities over 1 year. Secondary outcomes include seroprevalence, infection prevalence, intervention coverage, safety, acceptability, adherence, cost and cost-effectiveness.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Findings will be reported on clinicaltrials.gov, in peer-reviewed publications and through stakeholder meetings with MoHSS and community leaders in Namibia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT02610400; Pre-results.

Spatial clustering of patent and sub-patent malaria infections in northern Namibia: Implications for surveillance and response strategies for elimination

Background

Reactive case detection (RACD) around passively detected malaria cases is a strategy to identify and treat hotspots of malaria transmission. This study investigated the unproven assumption on which this approach is based, that in low transmission settings, infections cluster over small scales.

Methods

A prospective case-control study was conducted between January 2013 and August 2014 in Ohangwena and Omusati regions in north central Namibia. Patients attending health facilities who tested positive by malaria rapid diagnostic test (RDT) (index cases) were traced back to their home. All occupants of index case households (n = 116 households) and surrounding households (n = 225) were screened for Plasmodium infection with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) and loop mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) and interviewed to identify risk factors. A comparison group of 286 randomly-selected control households was also screened, to compare infection levels of RACD and non-RACD households and their neighbours. Logistic regression was used to investigate spatial clustering of patent and sub-patent infections around index cases and to identify potential risk factors that would inform screening approaches and identify risk groups. Estimates of the impact of RACD on onward transmission to mosquitoes was made using previously published figures of infection rates.

Results

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infection by LAMP was 3.4%, 1.4% and 0.4% in index-case households, neighbors of index case households and control households respectively; adjusted odds ratio 6.1 [95%CI 1.9–19.5] comparing case households versus control households. Using data from Engela, neighbors of cases had higher odds of infection [adjusted OR 5.0 95%CI 1.3–18.9] compared to control households. All infections identified by RDTs were afebrile and RDTs identified only a small proportion of infections in case (n = 7; 17%) and control (0%) neighborhoods. Based on published estimates of patent and sub-patent infectiousness, these results suggest that infections missed by RDTs during RACD would allow 50–71% of infections to mosquitoes to occur in this setting.

Conclusion

Malaria infections cluster around passively detected cases. The majority of infections are asymptomatic and of densities below the limit of detection of current RDTs. RACD using standard RDTs are unlikely to detect enough malaria infections to dramatically reduce transmission. In low transmission settings such as Namibia more sensitive field diagnostics or forms of focal presumptive treatment should be tested as strategies to reduce malaria transmission.

Estimation of malaria parasite reservoir coverage using reactive case detection and active community fever screening from census data with rapid diagnostic tests in southern Zambia: a re-sampling approach

Background and methods

In areas where malaria transmission has been suppressed by vector control interventions many malaria control and elimination programmes are actively seeking new interventions to further reduce malaria prevalence, incidence and transmission. Malaria infection prevalence and incidence has been shown to cluster geographically, especially at lower transmission levels, and as such a reactive strategy is frequently used, by which index cases presenting to a passive surveillance system are used to target small areas for testing and treatment, reactive case detection (RCD), or focal drug administration (fDA). This study utilizes geo-located data from a census with parasitological testing with rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) and treatment-seeking data collection conducted in southern Zambia to estimate the coverage of RCD or fDA in terms of the population and parasite reservoir as well as the operational requirements of such strategies, using a re-sampling algorithm developed exclusively for this purpose. This re-sampling algorithm allows for the specification of several parameters, such that different operational variants of these reactive strategies can be examined, including varying the search radius, screening for fever, or presumptive treatment (fDA).

Results

Results indicate that RCD, fDA and active fever screening followed by RCD, even with search radii over several hundered meters will only yield limited coverage of the RDT positive parasite reservoir during a short period. Long-term use of these strategies may increase this proportion. Reactive strategies detect a higher proportion of the reservoir of infections than random searches, but this effect appears to be greater in areas of low, but not moderate malaria prevalence in southern Zambia.

Discussion

Increases in the sensitivity of RDTs could also affect these results. The number of individuals and households that need to be searched increase rapidly, but approximately linearly with search radius.

Conclusions

Reactive strategies in southern Zambia yield improved identification of the parasite reservoir when targeted to areas with prevalence less than 10%. The operational requirements of delivering reactive strategies routinely are likely to prevent their uptake until prevalence falls far below this level.