Cost-utility analysis in chronic kidney disease patients undergoing kidney transplant; what pays? A systematic review

Calcineurin Inhibitor in NEuRoloGically deceased donors to decrease kidney delayed graft function study: study protocol of the CINERGY Pilot randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Most solid organ transplants originate from donors meeting criteria for death by neurological criteria (DNC). Within the organ donor, physiological responses to brain death increase the risk of ischaemia reperfusion injury and delayed graft function. Donor preconditioning with calcineurin inhibition may reduce this risk.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We designed a multicentre placebo-controlled pilot randomised trial involving nine organ donation hospitals and all 28 transplant programmes in the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Québec. We planned to enrol 90 DNC donors and their approximately 324 organ recipients, totalling 414 participants. Donors receive an intravenous infusion of either tacrolimus 0.02 mg/kg over 4 hours prior to organ retrieval, or a matching placebo, while monitored in an intensive care unit for any haemodynamic changes during the infusion. Among all study organ recipients, we record measures of graft function for the first 7 days in hospital and we will record graft survival after 1 year. We examine the feasibility of this trial with respect to the proportion of all eligible donors enrolled and the proportion of all eligible transplant recipients consenting to receive a CINERGY organ transplant and to allow the use of their health data for study purposes. We will report these feasibility outcomes as proportions with 95% CIs. We also record any barriers encountered in the launch and in the implementation of this trial with detailed source documentation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We will disseminate trial results through publications and presentations at participating sites and conferences. This study has been approved by Health Canada (HC6-24-c241083) and by the Research Ethics Boards of all participating sites and in Québec (MP-31-2020-3348) and Clinical Trials Ontario (Project #3309).

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05148715.

Examining chronic kidney disease screening frequency among diabetics: a POMDP approach

Forty percent of diabetics will develop chronic kidney disease (CKD) in their lifetimes. However, as many as 50% of these CKD cases may go undiagnosed. We developed screening recommendations stratified by age and previous test history for individuals with diagnosed diabetes and unknown proteinuria status by race and gender groups. To do this, we used a Partially Observed Markov Decision Process (POMDP) to identify whether a patient should be screened at every three-month interval from ages 30-85. Model inputs were drawn from nationally-representative datasets, the medical literature, and a microsimulation that integrates this information into group-specific disease progression rates. We implement the POMDP solution policy in the microsimulation to understand how this policy may impact health outcomes and generate an easily-implementable, non-belief-based approximate policy for easier clinical interpretability. We found that the status quo policy, which is to screen annually for all ages and races, is suboptimal for maximizing expected discounted future net monetary benefits (NMB). The POMDP policy suggests more frequent screening after age 40 in all race and gender groups, with screenings 2-4 times a year for ages 61-70. Black individuals are recommended for screening more frequently than their White counterparts. This policy would increase NMB from the status quo policy between $1,000 to  $8,000 per diabetic patient at a willingness-to-pay of $150,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY).

Deceased Kidney Donor Biomarkers: Relationship between Delayed Kidney Function and Graft Function Three Years after Transplantation

With an increasing number of marginal donors, additional methods for the evaluation of cadaveric kidney quality are required. This study aimed to evaluate pretransplant deceased donor serum (s) and urine (u) biomarkers, including neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), interleukin-18, and C-X-C motif chemokine 10 (CXCL10) for predicting early and late graft function. In total, 43 deceased kidney donors and 76 corresponding recipients were enrolled. Delayed graft function (DGF) occurred in 27.6% of cases. sIL-18, sKIM-1, uNGAL, and uKIM-1 were predictors of DGF. A model incorporating sIL-18, uKIM-1, and clinical factors was developed to predict DGF (AUROC 0.863). Univariate analysis showed a negative association between uKIM and graft eGFR at 6, 12, 24, and 36 months, but this was not confirmed in the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, we report a superior performance of donor biomarkers for predicting DGF and later graft function over serum creatinine. Higher levels of donor sIL-18 and uKIM in conjunction with expanded-criteria donors and longer cold ischemia times predicted DGF. With no renal tubular damage in zero-time donor biopsies, higher pretransplant urine and serum NGAL levels were associated with better allograft function one year after transplantation, and sNGAL with graft function three years after transplantation.

Burden and quality of care index of chronic kidney disease: Global Burden of Disease analysis for 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) imposes a heavy obscure burden on individuals and health systems. Besides its burden, the quality of care of CKD is less well investigated. In this study, we aimed to explore the global, regional and national trends of CKD burden and quality of care.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data were used. Trends of incidence, prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years were studied for the 1990-2019 period in the global aspect. By generating four secondary indices to assess different aspects of quality of care the quality of care index (QCI) was developed to explore the care provided for CKD. Inequities and disparities between various geographic, socio-demographic and age stratifications, and sex were studied using the QCI values.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 18 986 903 (95% uncertainty interval 17 556 535 to 20 518 156) incident cases of CKD, globally. The overall global QCI score had increased slightly from 78.4 in 1990 to 81.6 in 2019, and it was marginally better in males (QCI score 83.5) than in females (80.3). The highest QCI score was observed in the European region with a score of 92.5, while the African region displayed the lowest QCI with 61.7. Among the age groups, the highest QCI was for children aged between 5 and 9 years old (92.0), and the lowest was in the age group of 20-24 year olds (65.5).

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that significant disparities remain regarding the quality of care of CKD, and to reach better care for CKD, attention to and care of minorities should be reconsidered. The evidence presented in this study would benefit health policymakers toward better and more efficient control of CKD burden alongside improving the care of this condition.

Cost-effectiveness of dialysis and kidney transplantation to treat end-stage renal disease in Ukraine

OBJECTIVE

Aim: To determine the economic feasibility of using kidney transplantation compared to hemodialysis in end-stage renal disease in the long term in countries with a low and medium level of economic development using the example of Ukraine.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Materials and Methods: The cost effectiveness analysis method was used. Conducted Markov modeling and comparison of the consequences of kidney transplantation and hemodialysis in terms of treatment costs and the number of added years of life for a cohort of 1,675 patients were carried out. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is defined.

RESULTS

Results: Based on the results of modeling, it was determined that among 1,675 patients with end-stage kidney disease in Ukraine, 1,248 (74.5%) will remain alive after 10 years of treatment when kidney transplantation technology is used. The highest costs will be in the first year ($25,864), and in subsequent years - about $5,769. With the use of hemodialysis technology, only 728 patients (43.5%) will be alive after 10 years, the cost of treating one patient per year is $11,351. The use of kidney transplantation adds 3191 years of quality life for 1675 patients compared with hemodialysis (1.9 years per patient).

CONCLUSION

Conclusions: Kidney transplantation is an economically feasible technology for Ukraine, as the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is $4694, which is 1.04 times higher than Ukraine's GDP per capita. The results of the study allow us to recommend that decision-makers in countries with a low and medium level of economic development give priority in financing to renal transplantation.

Cost-effectiveness of Interventions to Increase Utilization of Kidneys From Deceased Donors With Primary Brain Malignancy in an Australian Setting

Kidneys from potential deceased donors with brain cancer are often foregone due to concerns of cancer transmission risk to recipients. There may be uncertainty around donors' medical history and their absolute transmission risk or risk-averse decision-making among clinicians. However, brain cancer transmissions are rare, and prolonging waiting time for recipients is harmful.

Methods

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of increasing utilization of potential deceased donors with brain cancer using a Markov model simulation of 1500 patients waitlisted for a kidney transplant, based on linked transplant registry data and with a payer perspective (Australian government). We estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for three interventions: decision support for clinicians in assessing donor risk, improved cancer classification accuracy with real-time data-linkage to hospital records and cancer registries, and increased risk tolerance to allow intermediate-risk donors (up to 6.4% potential transmission risk).

Results

Compared with current practice, decision support provided 0.3% more donors with an average transmission risk of 2%. Real-time data-linkage provided 0.6% more donors (1.1% average transmission risk) and increasing risk tolerance (accepting intermediate-risk 6.4%) provided 2.1% more donors (4.9% average transmission risk). Interventions were dominant (improved QALYs and saved costs) in 78%, 80%, and 87% of simulations, respectively. The largest benefit was from increasing risk tolerance (mean +18.6 QALYs and AU$2.2 million [US$1.6 million] cost-savings).

Conclusions

Despite the additional risk of cancer transmission, accepting intermediate-risk donors with brain cancer is likely to increase the number of donor kidneys available for transplant, improve patient outcomes, and reduce overall healthcare expenditure.

A Systematic Review of Kidney Transplantation Decision Modelling Studies

BACKGROUND

Genome-based precision medicine strategies promise to minimize premature graft loss after renal transplantation, through precision approaches to immune compatibility matching between kidney donors and recipients. The potential adoption of this technology calls for important changes to clinical management processes and allocation policy. Such potential policy change decisions may be supported by decision models from health economics, comparative effectiveness research and operations management.

OBJECTIVE

We used a systematic approach to identify and extract information about models published in the kidney transplantation literature and provide an overview of the status of our collective model-based knowledge about the kidney transplant process.

METHODS

Database searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and other sources, for reviews and primary studies. We reviewed all English-language papers that presented a model that could be a tool to support decision making in kidney transplantation. Data were extracted on the clinical context and modelling methods used.

RESULTS

A total of 144 studies were included, most of which focused on a single component of the transplantation process, such as immunosuppressive therapy or donor-recipient matching and organ allocation policies. Pre- and post-transplant processes have rarely been modelled together.

CONCLUSION

A whole-disease modelling approach is preferred to inform precision medicine policy, given its potential upstream implementation in the treatment pathway. This requires consideration of pre- and post-transplant natural history, risk factors for allograft dysfunction and failure, and other post-transplant outcomes. Our call is for greater collaboration across disciplines and whole-disease modelling approaches to more accurately simulate complex policy decisions about the integration of precision medicine tools in kidney transplantation.

VA, A. KB, S. B, K. K, J. D, J. WM, Tennankore KK. Estimated Impact of Deemed Consent Legislation for Organ Donation on Individuals With Kidney Failure: A Dynamic Decision Analytic Model

BACKGROUND

There is little data modeling the impact of deemed consent legislation (eligible individuals who do not register their decision to decline to be a donor are presumed to consent after death) on outcomes for individuals with kidney failure.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the change in life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) resulting from different changes in the rate of deceased donor kidney transplantation associated with deemed consent legislation and health system transformation.

DESIGN

Dynamic Decision Analytic Model.

SETTING

This modeling study included kidney failure patients in Atlantic Canada (all of whom receive their kidney transplants in Halifax, Nova Scotia). The adoption of deemed consent legislation was the intervention, and opt-in (the status quo) was the reference comparator.

PATIENTS

Prevalent kidney failure patients at the end of 2019 in all of Atlantic Canada (N = 3615) served as the starting population.

METHODS

We compared expected outcomes between the intervention and comparator. Changes in QALYs and total LYs were modeled under different changes to the proportion of patients receiving a deceased donor kidney transplant (from -10% to 20%) resulting from deemed consent relative to the status quo. Changes in QALYs and LYs were reported for 3 different time horizons (5, 10, and 30 years). Uncertainty around QALYs and total LYs was reported using 95% confidence intervals (CIs) constructed from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using 1000 Monte Carlo Simulations.

RESULTS

The increase in QALYs ranged from 7 QALYs (95% CI: 5-10) with a 5% increase using a 5-year time frame to 882 QALYs (95% CI: 619-1144) with a 20% increase over a 30-year time frame. Parallel changes in total LYs were also observed. In contrast, decreases in deceased donor kidney transplantation resulted in a loss of QALYs (for example, -463 QALYs; 95% CI: -633 to -306 for a 10% decrease over a 30-year time frame). Using the most optimistic scenario (a 20% increase), there was an 18% increase in the cumulative number of deceased donor kidney transplant recipients over a 30-year observation period.

LIMITATIONS

The results are subject to uncertainty depending on changes to the dialysis or transplant population that were not modeled and that may not be fully captured with probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Deemed consent legislation will lead to variable changes in QALYs and total LYs for the kidney failure population, depending on the degree to which deceased donor transplantation rates change and the time horizon of observation. This modeling study may serve as a baseline to monitor the future impact of deemed consent legislation.

An ex-ante cost-utility analysis of the deemed consent legislation compared to expressed consent for kidney transplantations in Nova Scotia

Background

This study was an ex-ante cost-utility analysis of deemed consent legislation for deceased organ donation in Nova Scotia, a province in Canada. The legislation became effective in January 2021. The study's objective was to assess the conditions necessary for the legislation change’s cost-effectiveness compared to expressed consent, focusing on kidney transplantation (KT).

Method

We performed a cost-utility analysis using a Markov model with a lifetime horizon. The study was from a Canadian payer perspective. The target population was patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Atlantic Canada waitlisted for KT. The intervention was the deemed consent and accompanying health system transformations. Expressed consent (before the change) was the comparator. We simulated the minimum required increase in deceased donor KT per year for the cost-effectiveness of the deemed consent. We also evaluated how changes in dialysis and maintenance immunosuppressant drug costs and living donor KT per year impacted cost-effectiveness in sensitivity analyses.

Results

The expected lifetime cost of an ESKD patient ranged from $177,663 to $553,897. In the deemed consent environment, the expected lifetime cost per patient depended on the percentage increases in the proportion of ESKD patients on the waitlist getting a KT in a year. The incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) increased with deceased donor KT per year. Cost-effectiveness of deemed consent compared to expressed consent required a minimum of a 1% increase in deceased donor KT per year. A 1% increase was associated with an ICUR of $32,629 per QALY (95% CI: − $64,279, $232,488) with a 81% probability of being cost-effective if the willingness-to-pay (WTP) was $61,466. Increases in dialysis and post-KT maintenance immunosuppressant drug costs above a threshold impacted value for money. The threshold for immunosuppressant drug costs also depended on the percent increases in deceased donor KT probability and the WTP threshold.

Conclusions

The deemed consent legislation in NS for deceased organ donation and the accompanying health system transformations are cost-effective to the extent that they are anticipated to contribute to more deceased donor KTs than before, and even a small increase in the proportion of waitlist patients receiving a deceased donor KT than before the change represents value for money.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12962-022-00390-z.

Comparing the Net Benefits of Adult Deceased Donor Kidney Transplantation for a Patient on the Preemptive Waiting List vs a Patient Receiving Dialysis

IMPORTANCE

Preemptive kidney transplantation is the preferred treatment for end-stage kidney disease. However, deceased donor (DD) kidneys are limited, and the net benefit of allocating kidneys to a preemptively waitlisted patient rather than to a patient receiving dialysis is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the net benefit and costs of allocating kidneys to preemptively waitlisted patients vs those receiving dialysis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This medical decision analytical model used data from the 2020 US Renal Data System to calculate patient survival among waitlisted patients who received a DD kidney transplant. Four patients were simulated, with similar characteristics: (1) a patient on the preemptive waiting list receiving a DD transplant, (2) a patient on the preemptive waiting list never receiving a transplant, (3) a waitlisted patient already receiving dialysis (dialysis vintage <1 year) receiving a transplant, and (4) a waitlisted patient already receiving dialysis (dialysis vintage <1 year) never receiving a transplant. Annual probability of initiating dialysis (for patients 1 and 2) and duration of dialysis (for patients 3 and 4) were varied in sensitivity analyses.

EXPOSURES

Allocating a DD kidney to a patient on the preemptive waiting list vs the same kidney to a patient receiving dialysis for less than 1 year, with similar recipient characteristics.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Differences in projected quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and total costs.

RESULTS

In a simulated patient with a mean start age of 50 years (range, 30-64 years), the patient receiving a preemptive DD transplantation experienced 10.58 (95% CI, 10.36-10.80) QALYs, and the patient on the preemptive waiting list never transplanted experienced 6.83 (95% CI, 6.67-6.99) QALYs. The patient receiving DD transplantation after less than 1 year of dialysis experienced 10.33 (95% CI, 10.21-10.55) QALYs, and the patient receiving dialysis who remained on the waiting list experienced 6.20 (95% CI, 6.04-6.36) QALYs; allocating a DD kidney to the preemptive patient added 3.75 (95% CI, 3.57-3.93) QALYs, whereas allocating the kidney to the patient already receiving dialysis added 4.13 (95% CI, 3.92-4.31) QALYs. While the estimated posttransplant survival was longest for the preemptive transplant recipient, preferentially allocating the kidney to the preemptive patient results in 0.39 (95% CI, 0.49-0.29) fewer QALYs. The net cost of preemptive transplantation was $54 100 (95% CI, $44 100-$64 100) more than transplantation to a waitlisted patient. If the rate of transitioning to dialysis was 20 (rather than 33) events per 100 patient waiting list-years, the net QALYs were -0.67 (95% CI, -0.78 to -0.56). If the patient was receiving dialysis for 3 to 4 years (vs <1 year) the net benefit was not significantly different; however, net costs were considerably higher for the preemptive option.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this decision analytic model study, although allocating DD kidneys to patients preemptively was the best option from a patient perspective, allocating DD kidneys to patients receiving dialysis was a better use of a scare resource from a societal perspective.

Mapping the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised: Renal to the EQ-5D-5L in patients with chronic kidney disease

PURPOSE

The Edmonton Symptom Assessment System-Revised: Renal (ESAS-r: Renal) is a disease-specific patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) that assesses symptoms common in chronic kidney disease (CKD). There is no preference-based scoring system for the ESAS-r: Renal or a mapping algorithm to predict health utility values. We aimed to develop a mapping algorithm from the ESAS-r: Renal to the Canadian EQ-5D-5L index scores.

METHODS

We used data from a multi-centre cluster randomized-controlled trial of the routine measurement and reporting of PROMs in hemodialysis units in Northern Alberta, Canada. In two arms of the trial, both the ESAS-r: Renal and the EQ-5D-5L were administered to CKD patients undergoing hemodialysis. We used data from one arm for model estimation, and data from the other for validation. We explored direct and indirect mapping models; model selection was based on statistical fit and predictive power.

RESULTS

Complete data were available for 506 patient records in the estimation sample and 242 in the validation sample. All models tended to perform better in patients with good health, and worse in those with poor health. Generalized estimating equations (GEE) and generalized linear model (GLM) on selected ESAS-r: Renal items were selected as final models as they fitted the best in estimation and validation sample.

CONCLUSION

When only ESAS-r: Renal data are available, one could use GEE and GLM to predict EQ-5D-5L index scores for use in economic evaluation. External validation on populations with different characteristics is warranted, especially where renal-specific symptoms are more prevalent.

Time-to-event analysis in economic evaluations: a comparison of modelling methods to assess the cost-effectiveness of transplanting a marginal quality kidney

BACKGROUND

Economic-evaluations using decision analytic models such as Markov-models (MM), and discrete-event-simulations (DES) are high value adds in allocating resources. The choice of modelling method is critical because an inappropriate model yields results that could lead to flawed decision making. The aim of this study was to compare cost-effectiveness when MM and DES were used to model results of transplanting a lower-quality kidney versus remaining waitlisted for a kidney.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness was assessed using MM and DES. We used parametric survival models to estimate the time-dependent transition probabilities of MM and distribution of time-to-event in DES. MMs were simulated in 12 and 6 monthly cycles, out to five and 20-year time horizon.

RESULTS

DES model output had a close fit to the actual data. Irrespective of the modelling method, the cycle length of MM or the time horizon, transplanting a low-quality kidney as compared to remaining waitlisted was the dominant strategy. However, there were discrepancies in costs, effectiveness and net monetary benefit (NMB) among different modelling methods. The incremental NMB of the MM in the 6-months cycle lengths was a closer fit to the incremental NMB of the DES. The gap in the fit of the two cycle lengths to DES output reduced as the time horizon increased.

CONCLUSION

Different modelling methods were unlikely to influence the decision to accept a lower quality kidney transplant or remain waitlisted on dialysis. Both models produced similar results when time-dependant transition probabilities are used, most notable with shorter cycle lengths and longer time-horizons.

Deceased donor kidney allocation: an economic evaluation of contemporary longevity matching practices

BACKGROUND

Matching survival of a donor kidney with that of the recipient (longevity matching), is used in some kidney allocation systems to maximize graft-life years. It is not part of the allocation algorithm for Australia. Given the growing evidence of survival benefit due to longevity matching based allocation algorithms, development of a similar kidney allocation system for Australia is currently underway. The aim of this research is to estimate the impact that changes to costs and health outcomes arising from 'longevity matching' on the Australian healthcare system.

METHODS

A decision analytic model to estimate cost-effectiveness was developed using a Markov process. Four plausible competing allocation options were compared to the current kidney allocation practice. Models were simulated in one-year cycles for a 20-year time horizon, with transitions through distinct health states relevant to the kidney recipient. Willingness to pay was considered as AUD 28000.

RESULTS

Base case analysis indicated that allocating the worst 20% of Kidney Donor Risk Index (KDRI) donor kidneys to the worst 20% of estimated post-transplant survival (EPTS) recipients (option 2) and allocating the oldest 25% of donor kidneys to the oldest 25% of recipients are both cost saving and more effective compared to the current Australian allocation practice. Option 2, returned the lowest costs, greatest health benefits and largest gain to net monetary benefits (NMB). Allocating the best 20% of KDRI donor kidneys to the best 20% of EPTS recipients had the lowest expected incremental NMB.

CONCLUSION

Of the four longevity-based kidney allocation practices considered, transplanting the lowest quality kidneys to the worst kidney recipients (option 2), was estimated to return the best value for money for the Australian health system.