Comparison of the effectiveness of different machine learning algorithms in predicting new fractures after PKP for osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures

Prediction of subsequent fragility fractures: application of machine learning

BACKGROUND

Machine learning (ML) has shown exceptional promise in various domains of medical research. However, its application in predicting subsequent fragility fractures is still largely unknown. In this study, we aim to evaluate the predictive power of different ML algorithms in this area and identify key features associated with the risk of subsequent fragility fractures in osteoporotic patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from patients presented with fragility fractures at our Fracture Liaison Service, categorizing them into index fragility fracture (n = 905) and subsequent fragility fracture groups (n = 195). We independently trained ML models using 27 features for both male and female cohorts. The algorithms tested include Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, Logistic Regression, LightGBM, AdaBoost, Multi-Layer Perceptron, and Support Vector Machine. Model performance was evaluated through 10-fold cross-validation.

RESULTS

The CatBoost model outperformed other models, achieving 87% accuracy and an AUC of 0.951 for females, and 93.4% accuracy with an AUC of 0.990 for males. The most significant predictors for females included age, serum C-reactive protein (CRP), 25(OH)D, creatinine, blood urea nitrogen (BUN), parathyroid hormone (PTH), femoral neck Z-score, menopause age, number of pregnancies, phosphorus, calcium, and body mass index (BMI); for males, the predictors were serum CRP, femoral neck T-score, PTH, hip T-score, BMI, BUN, creatinine, alkaline phosphatase, and spinal Z-score.

CONCLUSION

ML models, especially CatBoost, offer a valuable approach for predicting subsequent fragility fractures in osteoporotic patients. These models hold the potential to enhance clinical decision-making by supporting the development of personalized preventative strategies.

Predicting Chronic Pain and Treatment Outcomes Using Machine Learning Models Based on High-Dimensional Clinical Data From a Large Retrospective Cohort

PURPOSE

To identify factors and indicators that affect chronic pain and pain relief, and to develop predictive models using machine learning.

METHODS

We analyzed the data of 67,028 outpatient cases and 11,310 valid samples with pain from a large retrospective cohort. We used decision tree, random forest, AdaBoost, neural network, and logistic regression to discover significant indicators and to predict pain and treatment relief.

FINDINGS

The random forest model had the highest accuracy, F1 value, precision, and recall rates for predicting pain relief. The main factors affecting pain and treatment relief included body mass index, blood pressure, age, body temperature, heart rate, pulse, and neutrophil/lymphocyte × platelet ratio. The logistic regression model had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting pain occurrence.

IMPLICATIONS

Machine learning models can be used to analyze the risk factors and predictors of chronic pain and pain relief, and to provide personalized and evidence-based pain management.

Predicting osteoporotic fractures post-vertebroplasty: a machine learning approach with a web-based calculator

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting the risk of new osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) in patients who underwent percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) and to create a user-friendly web-based calculator for clinical use.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients undergoing percutaneous vertebroplasty: A retrospective analysis of patients treated with PVP between June 2016 and June 2018 at Liuzhou People's Hospital was performed. The independent variables of the model were screened using Boruta and modelled using 9 algorithms. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC_AUC), and clinical utility was assessed by clinical decision curve analysis (DCA). The best models were analysed for interpretability using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and the models were deployed visually using a web calculator.

RESULTS

Training and test groups were split using time. The SVM model performed best in both the training group tenfold cross-validation (CV) and validation group AUC, with an AUC of 0.77. DCA showed that the model was beneficial to patients in both the training and test sets. A network calculator developed based on the SHAP-based SVM model can be used for clinical risk assessment ( https://nicolazhang.shinyapps.io/refracture_shap/ ).

CONCLUSIONS

The SVM-based ML model was effective in predicting the risk of new-onset OVCF after PVP, and the network calculator provides a practical tool for clinical decision-making. This study contributes to personalised care in spinal surgery.

Sensitivity and specificity of machine learning and deep learning algorithms in the diagnosis of thoracolumbar injuries resulting in vertebral fractures: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Clinicians encounter challenges in promptly diagnosing thoracolumbar injuries (TLIs) and fractures (VFs), motivating the exploration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) technologies to enhance diagnostic capabilities. Despite varying evidence, the noteworthy transformative potential of AI in healthcare, leveraging insights from daily healthcare data, persists.

Research question

This review investigates the utilization of ML and DL in TLIs causing VFs.

Materials and methods

Employing Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyzes (PRISMA) methodology, a systematic review was conducted in PubMed and Scopus databases, identifying 793 studies. Seventeen were included in the systematic review, and 11 in the meta-analysis. Variables considered encompassed publication years, geographical location, study design, total participants (14,524), gender distribution, ML or DL methods, specific pathology, diagnostic modality, test analysis variables, validation details, and key study conclusions. Meta-analysis assessed specificity, sensitivity, and conducted hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curve (HSROC) analysis.

Results

Predominantly conducted in China (29.41%), the studies involved 14,524 participants. In the analysis, 11.76% (N = 2) focused on ML, while 88.24% (N = 15) were dedicated to deep DL. Meta-analysis revealed a sensitivity of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.86-0.95), consistent specificity of 0.90 (95% CI = 0.86-0.93), with a false positive rate of 0.097 (95% CI = 0.068-0.137).

Conclusion

The study underscores consistent specificity and sensitivity estimates, affirming the diagnostic test's robustness. However, the broader context of ML applications in TLIs emphasizes the critical need for standardization in methodologies to enhance clinical utility.

Predictive value of machine learning models for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer: A two-center study

BACKGROUND

Gastric cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in the digestive system, ranking sixth in incidence and fourth in mortality worldwide. Since 42.5% of metastatic lymph nodes in gastric cancer belong to nodule type and peripheral type, the application of imaging diagnosis is restricted.

AIM

To establish models for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients using machine learning (ML) algorithms and to evaluate their predictive performance in clinical practice.

METHODS

Data of a total of 369 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University (Xuzhou, China) from March 2016 to November 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed as the training group. In addition, data of 123 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy at the Department of General Surgery of Jining First People's Hospital (Jining, China) were collected and analyzed as the verification group. Seven ML models, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine, naive Bayes, neural network, and logistic regression, were developed to evaluate the occurrence of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. The ML models were established following ten cross-validation iterations using the training dataset, and subsequently, each model was assessed using the test dataset. The models' performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each model.

RESULTS

Among the seven ML models, except for SVM, the other ones exhibited higher accuracy and reliability, and the influences of various risk factors on the models are intuitive.

CONCLUSION

The ML models developed exhibit strong predictive capabilities for lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer, which can aid in personalized clinical diagnosis and treatment.

Comparison of Machine Learning and Logic Regression Algorithms for Predicting Lymph Node Metastasis in Patients with Gastric Cancer: A two-Center Study

OBJECTIVES

This two-center study aimed to establish a model for predicting the risk of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients using machine learning (ML) and logistic regression (LR) algorithms, and to evaluate its predictive performance in clinical practice.

METHODS

Data of a total of 369 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy in the Department of General Surgery of Affiliated Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University (Xuzhou, China) from March 2016 to November 2019 were collected and retrospectively analyzed as the training group. In addition, data of 123 patients who underwent radical gastrectomy in the Department of General Surgery of Jining First People's Hospital (Jining, China) were collected and analyzed as the verification group. Besides, 7 ML and logistic models were developed, including decision tree, random forest, support vector machine (SVM), gradient boosting machine (GBM), naive Bayes, neural network, and LR, in order to evaluate the occurrence of lymph node metastasis in patients with gastric cancer. The ML model was established following 10 cross-validation iterations within the training dataset, and subsequently, each model was assessed using the test dataset. The model's performance was evaluated by comparing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of each model.

RESULTS

Compared with the traditional logistic model, among the 7 ML algorithms, except for SVM, the other models exhibited higher accuracy and reliability, and the influences of various risk factors on the model were more intuitive.

CONCLUSION

For the prediction of lymph node metastasis in gastric cancer patients, the ML algorithm outperformed traditional LR, and the GBM algorithm exhibited the most robust predictive capability.