The pre-ECMO simplified acute physiology score II as a predictor for mortality in patients with initiation ECMO support at the emergency department for acute circulatory and/or respiratory failure: a retrospective study

ECMO Support in Refractory Cardiogenic Shock: Risk Factors for Mortality

BACKGROUND

Veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (va-ECMO) is a specialized temporary support for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. The true value of this potentially lifesaving modality is still a subject of debate. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the overall in-hospital mortality and identify potential risk factors for mortality.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 453 patients supported with va-ECMO over a period of 14 years who were admitted to intensive care units of a tertiary university center in Austria.

RESULTS

We observed in-hospital mortality of 40% for patients with refractory cardiogenic shock. Hemorrhage, ECMO initiation on weekends, higher SAPS III score, and sepsis were identified as significant risk factors for mortality. Hemorrhage was the most common adverse event (46%), with major bleeding events dominating in deceased patients. Thromboembolic events occurred in 25% of patients, followed by sepsis (18%).

CONCLUSIONS

Although the rates of complications are substantial, a well-selected proportion of patients with refractory cardiogenic shock can be rescued from probable death. The reported risk factors could be used to increase the awareness of clinicians towards the development of new therapeutic concepts that may reduce their incidence.

ECMO Predictors of Mortality: A 10-Year Referral Centre Experience

Background: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a specialised life support modality for patients with refractory cardiac or respiratory failure. Multiple studies strived to evaluate the benefits of ECMO support, but its efficacy remains controversial with still inconsistent and sparse information. Methods: This retrospective analysis included patients with ECMO support, admitted between January 2010 and December 2019 at a tertiary university ECMO referral centre in Austria. The primary endpoint of the study was overall all-cause three-month mortality with risk factors and predictors of mortality. Secondary endpoints covered the analysis of demographic and clinical characteristics of patients needing ECMO, including incidence and type of adverse events during support. Results: In total, 358 patients fulfilled inclusion criteria and received ECMO support due to cardiogenic shock (258, 72%), respiratory failure (88, 25%) or hypothermia (12, 3%). In total, 41% (145) of patients died within the first three months, with the median time to death of 9 (1−87) days. The multivariate analysis identified hypothermia (HR 3.8, p < 0.001), the Simplified Acute Physiology Score III (HR 1.0, p < 0.001), ECMO initiation on weekends (HR 1.6, p = 0.016) and haemorrhage during ECMO support (HR 1.7, p = 0.001) as factors with higher risk for mortality. Finally, the most frequent adverse event was haemorrhage (160, 45%) followed by thrombosis. Conclusions: ECMO is an invasive advanced support system with a high risk of complications. Nevertheless, well-selected patients can be successfully rescued from life-threatening conditions by prolonging the therapeutic window to either solve the underlying problem or install a long-term assist device. Hypothermia, disease severity, initiation on weekends and haemorrhage during ECMO support increase the risk for mortality. In the case of decision making in a setting of limited (ICU) resources, the reported risk factors for mortality may be contemplable, especially when judging a possible ECMO support termination.

Association Between Base Excess and Mortality Among Patients in ICU With Acute Kidney Injury

Objective: This study aimed to explore the association between base excess (BE) and the risk of 30-day mortality among patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: This retrospective study included patients with AKI from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC)-IV database. We used a multivariate Cox proportional-hazards model to obtain the hazard ratio (HR) for the risk of 30-day mortality among patients with AKI. Furthermore, we utilized a Cox proportional-hazard model with restricted cubic splines (RCS) to explore the potential non-linear associations. Results: Among the 14,238 ICU patients with AKI, BE showed a U-shaped relationship with risk of 30-day mortality for patients with AKI, and higher or lower BE values could increase the risk. Compared with normal base excess (-3~3 mEq/L), patients in different groups (BE ≤ -9 mEq/L, -9 mEq/L < BE ≤ -3 mEq/L, 3 mEq/L < BE ≤ 9 mEq/L, and BE > 9 mEq/L) had different HRs for mortality: 1.57 (1.40, 1.76), 1.26 (1.14, 1.39), 0.97 (0.83, 1.12), 1.53 (1.17, 2.02), respectively. The RCS analyses also showed a U-shaped curve between BE and the 30-day mortality risk. Conclusion: Our results suggest that higher and lower BE in patients with AKI would increase the risk of 30-day mortality. BE measured at administration could be a critical prognostic indicator for ICU patients with AKI and provide guidance for clinicians.

Contraindications to the Initiation of Veno-Venous ECMO for Severe Acute Respiratory Failure in Adults: A Systematic Review and Practical Approach Based on the Current Literature

(1) Background: Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is increasingly used for acute respiratory failure with few absolute but many relative contraindications. The provider in charge often has a difficult time weighing indications and contraindications to anticipate if the patient will benefit from this treatment, a decision that often decides life and death for the patient. To assist in this process in coming to a good evidence-based decision, we reviewed the available literature. (2) Methods: We performed a systematic review through a literature search of the MEDLINE database of former and current absolute and relative contraindications to the initiation of ECMO treatment. (3) Results: The following relative and absolute contraindications were identified in the literature: absolute-refusal of the use of extracorporeal techniques by the patient, advanced stage of cancer, fatal intracerebral hemorrhage/cerebral herniation/intractable intracranial hypertension, irreversible destruction of the lung parenchyma without the possibility of transplantation, and contraindications to lung transplantation; relative-advanced age, immunosuppressed patients/pharmacological immunosuppression, injurious ventilator settings > 7 days, right-heart failure, hematologic malignancies, especially bone marrow transplantation and graft-versus-host disease, SAPS II score ≥ 60 points, SOFA score > 12 points, PRESERVE score ≥ 5 points, RESP score ≤ -2 points, PRESET score ≥ 6 points, and "do not attempt resuscitation" order (DN(A)R status). (4) Conclusions: We provide a simple-to-follow algorithm that incorporates absolute and relative contraindications to the initiation of ECMO treatment. This algorithm attempts to weigh pros and cons regarding the benefit for an individual patient and hopefully assists caregivers to make better, informed decisions.

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) survival: A quaternary center analysis

BACKGROUND

Extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (ECPR) has emerged as a rescue strategy for nonresponders to conventional CPR (CCPR) in cardiac arrest. Definitive guidelines for ECPR deployment do not exist. Prior studies suggest that arrest rhythm and cardiac origin of arrest may be variables used to assess candidacy for ECPR.

AIM

To describe a single-center experience with ECPR and to assess associations between survival and physician-adjudicated origin of arrest and arrest rhythm.

METHODS

A retrospective review of all patients who underwent ECPR at a quaternary care center over a 7-year period was performed. Demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the medical record and used to adjudicate the origin of cardiac arrest, etiology, rhythm, survival, and outcomes. Univariate analysis was performed to determine the association of patient and arrest characteristics with survival.

RESULTS

Between 2010 and 2017, 47 cardiac arrest patients were initiated on extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) at the time of active CPR. ECPR patient survival to hospital discharge was 25.5% (n = 12). Twenty-six patients died on ECMO (55.3%) while nine patients (19.1%) survived decannulation but died before discharge. Neither physician-adjudicated arrest rhythm nor underlying origin were significantly associated with survival to discharge, either alone or in combination. Younger age was significantly associated with survival. Nearly all survivors experienced myocardial recovery and left the hospital with a good neurological status.

CONCLUSIONS

Arrest rhythm and etiology may be insufficient predictors of survival in ECPR utilization. Further multiinstitutional studies are needed to determine evidenced-based criteria for ECPR deployment.

Mortality Risk Assessment in COVID-19 Venovenous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation

Background

A life-threatening complication of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) refractory to conventional management. Venovenous (VV) extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) (VV-ECMO) is used to support patients with ARDS in whom conventional management fails. Scoring systems to predict mortality in VV-ECMO remain unvalidated in COVID-19 ARDS. This report describes a large single-center experience with VV-ECMO in COVID-19 and assesses the utility of standard risk calculators.

Methods

A retrospective review of a prospective database of all patients with COVID-19 who underwent VV-ECMO cannulation between March 15 and June 27, 2020 at a single academic center was performed. Demographic, clinical, and ECMO characteristics were collected. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality; survivor and nonsurvivor cohorts were compared by using univariate and bivariate analyses.

Results

Forty patients who had COVID-19 and underwent ECMO were identified. Of the 33 patients (82.5%) in whom ECMO had been discontinued at the time of analysis, 18 patients (54.5%) survived to hospital discharge, and 15 (45.5%) died during ECMO. Nonsurvivors presented with a statistically significant higher Prediction of Survival on ECMO Therapy (PRESET)-Score (mean ± SD, 8.33 ± 0.8 vs 6.17 ± 1.8; P = .001). The PRESET score demonstrated accurate mortality prediction. All patients with a PRESET-Score of 6 or lowers survived, and a score of 7 or higher was associated with a dramatic increase in mortality.

Conclusions

These results suggest that favorable outcomes are possible in patients with COVID-19 who undergo ECMO at high-volume centers. This study demonstrated an association between the PRESET-Score and survival in patients with COVID-19 who underwent VV-ECMO. Standard risk calculators may aid in appropriate selection of patients with COVID-19 ARDS for ECMO.

Mechanical Power during Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Initiation: A Pilot-Study

Mechanical power (MP) represents a useful parameter to describe and quantify the forces applied to the lungs during mechanical ventilation (MV). In this multi-center, prospective, observational study, we analyzed MP variations following MV adjustments after veno-venous extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation (VV ECMO) initiation. We also investigated whether the MV parameters (including MP) in the early phases of VV ECMO run may be related to the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Thirty-five patients with severe acute respiratory distress syndrome were prospectively enrolled and analyzed. After VV ECMO initiation, we observed a significant decrease in median MP (32.4 vs. 8.2 J/min, p < 0.001), plateau pressure (27 vs. 21 cmH₂O, p = 0.012), driving pressure (11 vs. 8 cmH₂O, p = 0.014), respiratory rate (RR, 22 vs. 14 breaths/min, p < 0.001), and tidal volume adjusted to patient ideal body weight (V_T/IBW, 5.5 vs. 4.0 mL/kg, p = 0.001) values. During the early phase of ECMO run, RR (17 vs. 13 breaths/min, p = 0.003) was significantly higher, while positive end-expiratory pressure (10 vs. 14 cmH₂O, p = 0.048) and V_T/IBW (3.0 vs. 4.0 mL/kg, p = 0.028) were lower in ICU non-survivors, when compared to the survivors. The observed decrease in MP after ECMO initiation did not influence ICU outcome. Waiting for large studies assessing the role of these parameters in VV ECMO patients, RR and MP monitoring should not be underrated during ECMO.

Clinical outcomes of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation in acute traumatic lung injury: a retrospective study

Background

Therapeutic extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is a challenging procedure in patients who have experienced severe trauma. Particularly, patients with traumatic lung injury and posttraumatic acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) have a high risk of bleeding during this procedure. This study aimed to determine the safety and feasibility of ECMO in patients with traumatic ARDS.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed medical records and investigated the clinical outcomes of ECMO in 42 patients with traumatic ARDS, among whom near-drowning (42.9%) was the most frequent cause of injury.

Results

Thirty-four of 42 patients (81%) survived and were discharged after a median hospital stay of 23 days. A multivariate analysis identified a lactate level (odds ratio: 1.493, 95% confidence interval: 1.060–2.103, P = 0.022) and veno-venous (VV) ECMO (odds ratio: 0.075, 95% confidence interval: 0.006–0.901, P = 0.041) as favorable independent predictors of survival in patients with traumatic ARDS who underwent ECMO. The optimal cut off value for pre-ECMO lactate level was 10.5 mmol/L (area under the curve = 0.929, P = 0.001). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the survival rate at hospital discharge was significant higher among the patients with a pre-ECMO lactate level of 10.5 mmol/L or less compared with patients with pre-ECMO lactate level greater than 10.5 mmol/L (93.8% versus 40.0%, respectively; P = 0.01).

Conclusions

ECMO yielded excellent survival outcomes, particularly in patients with low pre-treatment lactate levels who received VV ECMO. Therefore, ECMO appears safe and highly feasible in a carefully selected population of trauma patients.

Volume-Outcome Relationships in Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Retrospective Analysis of Administrative Data From Pennsylvania, 2007-2015

This article seeks to understand whether a volume-outcome relationship exists in adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). We examined primary administrative discharge data from the Pennsylvanian Health Care Cost Containment Council for all 2,948 consecutive adults treated with ECMO in Pennsylvania between January 1, 2007, and December 31, 2015. We used a well-fitting backwards stepwise logistic regression to obtain patient-level predicted mortality. Number of cases and risk-adjusted mortality was aggregated by calendar quarter and by hospital. Graphical and correlation analysis was used to understand the volume-outcome relationship, focusing separately on the impact of a hospital's current scale (annual volume of adult ECMO) and a hospital's cumulative experience (total cumulative volume of adult ECMO since starting operations). We found that more than 9 years, there was essentially no reduction in overall risk-adjusted mortality in the state. For individual hospitals, once institutions had as few as 50 cases' total experience or performed just 10 cases annually, there was no clear improvement in outcomes. Patients in hospitals with fewer than 50 cases ever performed appeared objectively less sick compared with patients in hospital with more experience. We conclude that there is little evidence of volume-outcome relationships in adult ECMO in this state, although we acknowledge that the absence of clinical chart data limits these conclusions.

Clinical implications of the initial SAPS II in veno-arterial extracorporeal oxygenation

Background

Prediction of survival and weaning probability in VA ECMO (veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) patients could be of great benefit for real-time decision making on VA ECMO initiation in critical ill patients. We investigated whether the SAPS II score would be a real-time determinant for VA ECMO initiation and could be a predictor of survival and weaning probability in patients on VA ECMO.

Methods

Between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2014, VA ECMO was carried out on 135 adult patients suffering from primary cardiogenic shock. To avoid selection bias, we excluded respiratory failure patients treated with VV or other types of ECMO. Successful VA ECMO weaning was defined as weaning, followed by stable survival for more than 48 hours. Survival after VA ECMO was defined as successful weaning and treatment of the underlying medical condition, followed by discharge without any further events.

Results

A total of 135 patients consisted of 41 women and 94 men, with a mean age of 59.4±16.5 years. Fifty-three patients had successful weaning, and 35 survived and were discharged uneventfully. Compared to the non-survivors, the survivors showed a lower SAPS II (67.77±20.79 vs. 90.29±13.31, P<0.001), a lower SOFA score (12.63±3.49 vs. 15.33±2.28, P<0.001), a lower predicted death rate (71.12±30.51 vs. 94.00±9.36, P<0.001), a higher initial ipH (7.14±0.22 vs. 6.98±0.15, P<0.001), and a lower initial lactate level (7.09±4.93 vs. 12.11±4.84, P<0.001). The average duration of hospital stay in the successful vs. failed weaning groups was 33.43±27.41 vs. 6.35±8.71 days, and the average duration of ICU stay in the successful vs. failed weaning groups was 20.60±16.88 vs. 5.39±5.95 days. By multivariate logistic regression analysis of initial parameters for VA ECMO assistance, the simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) (OR =1.1019, P=0.0389), ipH (OR =0.0010, P=0.0452), and hospital stay (OR =0.8140, P=0.001) had an association with in-hospital mortality on VA ECMO. The initial SAPS II score [area under the curve (AUC) =0.821] demonstrated significantly superior prediction of VA ECMO mortality than age (AUC =0.697), SOFA score (AUC =0.701), ipH (AUC =0.551), and the other parameters. By multivariable CoX regression analysis of survival, only the SAPS II score proved to have statistical significance (hazard ratio, 1.0423; 95% CI, 1.0083-1.0775; P=0.01).

Conclusions

Although the precise predictive scoring systems for VA ECMO still remains one of the most difficult challenges to ECMO physicians, the SAPS II score could provide valuable information on prognosis to patient himself, family members and caretakers, and might help physicians increase the survival rate and might avoid a waste of healthcare resources.

The Challenges in Predicting ECMO Survival, and a Path Forward

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support is a life-saving but complex technique for patients suffering from severe cardiac or pulmonary dysfunction. Increasingly greater utilization in the last 15 years means that a suite of mortality risk analytics is both feasible for researchers and required by clinicians, patients, administrators, and insurers. We argue that to date, research into such risk analytics has been insufficient and does not adequately reflect the various indications and configurations of extracorporeal life support (ECLS). We propose a path to address these challenges and ensure that clinicians and researchers obtain robust, specific, risk analytics.

Clinical risk factors of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support in older adults

Background

The ageing population and the expected increase in the number of elderly patients make an evidence-based assessment of Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO) therapy in old patients progressively more important. Veno-arterial (VA) ECMO results for patient aged <65 years is well known. However, the risk profile and in-hospital prognosis of advanced age patients with ECMO still need more investigation. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors that predicted the outcomes for elderly patients who received VA-ECMO.

Methods

In this retrospective study, medical records for patients with ECMO aged 65 years and over were collected between 2009 and 2012 at a tertiary hospital.

Results

A total of 99 patients (mean age: 76.4±6.4 years) were included. The most common condition requiring VA-ECMO support was cardiogenic shock. Among survivors on VA-ECMO, 28 (28.3%) patients were successfully weaned from support. Thirteen (13.1%) patients were successfully discharged. We found that cardiogenic shock (OR = 3.158, P = 0.013), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score (OR = 1.147, P<0.001), and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) score (OR = 1.054, P = 0.001) were risk factors associated with survival on VA-ECMO. By using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve, the APACHE II score and SAPS II score displayed acceptable discriminative power (AUC 0.722; 0.715, respectively).

Conclusion

Our findings indicate that the risk of mortality increases with cardiogenic shock, higher APACHE II score, and higher SAPS II score. These risk factors can be utilized as potential predictors to identify the potential candidates for ECMO support.

Factors associated with mortality risk in critical care patients treated with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

OBJECTIVES

To identify factors associated with mortality in patients treated with veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) and to validate the discrimination of the risk assessment tools to predict mortality.

BACKGROUND

VA-ECMO is a rescue therapy for patients with life-threatening cardiac failure, but mortality remains high.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, we reviewed the medical records of adult patients who underwent VA-ECMO in an intensive care unit of a university hospital, between 2009 and 2013.

RESULTS

VA-ECMO was performed in 89 patients, with a median duration of 116 h. The survival rate until hospital discharge was 27%. The pre-ECMO simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II and diabetes mellitus were significant predictors of hospital mortality. The optimal prognostic SAPS II score was 81 overall, 80 in patients with diabetes, and 84 in those without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings indicate that high pre-ECMO SAPS II score and diabetes are risk factors for mortality in patients who undergo VA-ECMO.

Lactate and Echocardiography Before Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support

BACKGROUND

Lactate has been recognised as a prognostic factor in several critical conditions. Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (VV-ECMO) is a well-established therapy in patients with Acute Respiratory Disease Syndrome (ARDS) unresponsive to conventional therapy and echocardiography pre ECMO initiation has been recently reported to help in risk stratifying these patients.

METHODS

We assessed whether the detection of hyperlactataemia could be associated with the presence of left ventricle (LV) or right ventricle (RV) dysfunction in 121 consecutive patients with refractory ARDS.

RESULTS

The mortality rate was 42.9% (52/121). Higher dosages of norepinephrine and dobutamine were administered to non survivors (p=0.023 and p=0.047, respectively) who showed significantly higher levels of lactate (p=0.002). At echocardiography, non survivors showed higher values of systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) (p=0.05) and a higher incidence of RV dysfunction (as indicated by lower Tricuspid Annular Plane Excursion (TAPSE)) and RV dilatation (p=0.001). At multivariate logistic regression analysis, the following variables were independent predictors of death: body mass index (BMI) (OR: 0.914, 95%CI 0.857-0.975, p=0.006), RV dilatation (OR: 0.239, 95%CI 0.101-0.561, p=0.001) and lactate (OR: 1.292, 95%CI 1.015-1.645, p=0.038). Lactate values were directly correlated with the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II (r=0.38, p<0.001), while they showed an indirect correlation with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (r=-0.24, p=0.009) and TAPSE (r=-0.21, p=0.024).

CONCLUSIONS

In refractory ARDS, hyperlactataemia before VVV-ECMO identified a subset of patients at higher risk of death, being an independent predictor of in-Intensive Care Unit (ICU) mortality. Lactate values are mainly related to disease severity (as indicated by SAPS II) and haemodynamic impairment (as inferred by LVEF) and RV failure, as (indicated by TAPSE).

Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support in Trauma Versus Nontrauma Patients with Noninfectious Acute Respiratory Failure

The utility of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) of noninfectious origin remains unclear. Data on patients with ARDS of noninfectious origin who underwent ECMO were reviewed retrospectively. We compared the pre-ECMO characteristics and hospital outcomes of patients with traumatic and nontraumatic ARDS. In total, 23 patients (trauma, n = 9; nontrauma, n = 14) were included in the study. The mean patient age was 42 years, there were three females, and the mean pre-ECMO Simplified Acute Physiologic Score (SAPS) II was 60.0 (49.0-71.0). The hemoglobin level was lower and the prothrombin time (PT) more prolonged, prior to initiation of ECMO, in traumatic compared with nontraumatic ARDS patients. During the first 48 h of ECMO support, the coagulation parameters did not differ between the two groups, but the platelet counts, PT, and activated partial thromboplastin time indicated that coagulopathy was developing in all patients. The hospital and 28-day mortality rates were 21.7 and 13.0%, respectively, and serious neurological outcomes (cerebral performance category [CPC] of three points or more) developed in 26.1% of all patients; however, the extent of such outcomes did not differ between traumatic and nontraumatic ARDS patients. Upon multivariate analysis, the pre-ECMO SAPS II tended to be associated with composite events (i.e., hospital death and/or a CPC of three points or more) (P = 0.051). Additionally, a history of hypertension and an elevated pre-ECMO SAPS II were significant risk factors for serious neurological outcomes among hospital survivors (n = 18). In conclusion, ECMO support can be associated with favorable outcomes in patients with ARDS of noninfectious origin, irrespective of whether the ARDS is associated with trauma. The pre-ECMO SAPS II and a history of hypertension may be independent risk factors for poor outcomes.

The modified SAVE score: predicting survival using urgent veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation within 24 hours of arrival at the emergency department

Background

Although many risk models have been tested in patients who undergo extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, few have been assessed for patients who received veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) support in the emergency department (ED). This study aimed to successfully predict outcomes of patients with cardiac or noncardiac failure who received VA-ECMO in the ED within 24 hours of arrival at the ED.

Method

This retrospective, observational cohort study included 154 patients, who were classified as cardiac (n = 127) and noncardiac (n = 27) patients and received VA-ECMO within 24 hours after arrival at the China Medical University Hospital ED in Taiwan between January 2009 and September 2014. We recorded mechanical ventilation settings, arterial blood gases, laboratory parameters including plasma lactate level, requirement of catecholamines, and risk scores at time of ECMO initiation. ECMO and mechanical ventilation support duration, length of stay in the hospital, and 90-day mortality data were also examined.

Results

The overall mortality rate was 64.9 %. We used “survival after veno-arterial ECMO (SAVE)” scores to assess survival prediction in survival and nonsurvival groups, which was statistically different (–3.2 vs. –8.3, p <0.001). According to multivariate Cox proportional regression of survival, lactate (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.01, 95 % confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.01, p <0.001) and SAVE score (HR = 0.92, [95 % CI, 0.88–0.96], p = 0.001) were independent predictors of outcome. Excellent discrimination (area under curve (AUC) = 0.843) was observed when lactate and SAVE score were combined, which we referred to as “the modified SAVE score.”

Conclusions

Modified SAVE scores improved outcome prediction for patients who underwent urgent VA-ECMO in the ED.

Simplified Acute Physiology Score II as Predictor of Mortality in Intensive Care Units: A Decision Curve Analysis

Background

End-of-life decision-making in Intensive care Units (ICUs) is difficult. The main problems encountered are the lack of a reliable prediction score for death and the fact that the opinion of patients is rarely taken into consideration. The Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) is a recent method developed to evaluate the prediction models and which takes into account the wishes of patients (or surrogates) to expose themselves to the risk of obtaining a false result. Our objective was to evaluate the clinical usefulness, with DCA, of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) to predict ICU mortality.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study from January 2011 to September 2015, in a medical-surgical 23-bed ICU at University Hospital. Performances of the SAPS II, a modified SAPS II (without AGE), and age to predict ICU mortality, were measured by a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis and DCA.

Results

Among the 4.370 patients admitted, 23.3% died in the ICU. Mean (standard deviation) age was 56.8 (16.7) years, and median (first-third quartile) SAPS II was 48 (34–65). Areas under ROC curves were 0.828 (0.813–0.843) for SAPS II, 0.814 (0.798–0.829) for modified SAPS II and of 0.627 (0.608–0.646) for age. DCA showed a net benefit whatever the probability threshold, especially under 0.5.

Conclusion

DCA shows the benefits of the SAPS II to predict ICU mortality, especially when the probability threshold is low. Complementary studies are needed to define the exact role that the SAPS II can play in end-of-life decision-making in ICUs.

The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II as a Predictor of Mortality in Patients Who Underwent Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for Septic Shock

BACKGROUND

The use of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) for patients with septic shock is controversial. The outcomes are favorable in children but heterogeneous in adults. The present study aimed to analyze the outcomes of adult patients who underwent ECMO for septic shock, and to determine the factors associated with prognosis.

METHODS

We respectively reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent ECMO for septic shock between January 2007 and December 2013. Patients were divided into survivor and nonsurvivor groups based on survival to hospital discharge. The patient characteristics before and during ECMO were compared between the groups. Independent risk factors for mortality were evaluated using multivariate logistic regression, receiver-operating characteristic curves, and Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

Twenty-eight patients were treated with venoarterial (n = 21), venovenous (n = 4), or venoarteriovenous (n = 3) mode ECMO. The overall survival rate to hospital discharge was 35.7%. The Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and prealbumin were predictors of survival to hospital discharge. The optimal cutoff value for SAPS II was 80 (area under the curve 0.80, p = 0.010). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that the cumulative survival rate at hospital discharge and at 54-month follow-up was significantly higher among patients with SAPS II of 80 or less compared with patients with SAPS II greater than 80 (66.7% versus 12.5% and 58.3% versus 12.5%, respectively; p = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

It is still difficult to conclude whether ECMO should be recommended as therapy for adult patients with septic shock. However, a SAPS II score of 80 or less may be an indicator of favorable outcomes with the use of ECMO.