A prediction model for good neurological outcome in successfully resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients

Preliminary Prognostication for Good Neurological Outcomes in the Early Stage of Post-Cardiac Arrest Care

We investigated prognostic strategies for predicting good outcomes in the early stage of post-cardiac-arrest care using multiple prognostic tests that are available until 24 h after the return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). A retrospective analysis was conducted on 138 out-of-hospital cardiac-arrest patients who underwent prognostic tests, including the gray-white-matter ratio (GWR-BG), the Glasgow Coma Scale motor (GCS-M) score before sedative administration, and the neuron-specific enolase (NSE) level measured at 24 h after the ROSC. We investigated the prognostic performances of the tests as single predictors and in various combination strategies. Classification and regression-tree analysis were used to provide a reliable model for the risk stratification. Out of all the patients, 55 (44.0%) had good outcomes. The NSE level showed the highest prognostic performance as a single prognostic test and provided improved specificities (>70%) and sensitivities (>98%) when used in combination strategies. Low NSE levels (≤32.1 ng/mL) and high GCS-M (≥4) scores identified good outcomes without misclassification. The overall accuracy for good outcomes was 81.8%. In comatose patients with low NSE levels or high GCS-M scores, the premature withdrawal of life-sustaining therapy should be avoided, thereby complying with the formal prognostication-strategy algorithm after at least 72 h from the ROSC.

Neuroprognostication in the Post Cardiac Arrest Patient: A Canadian Cardiovascular Society Position Statement

Cardiac arrest (CA) is associated with a low rate of survival with favourable neurologic recovery. The most common mechanism of death after successful resuscitation from CA is withdrawal of life-sustaining measures on the basis of perceived poor neurologic prognosis due to underlying hypoxic-ischemic brain injury. Neuroprognostication is an important component of the care pathway for CA patients admitted to hospital but is complex, challenging, and often guided by limited evidence. Using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system to evaluate the evidence underlying factors or diagnostic modalities available to determine prognosis, recommendations were generated in the following domains: (1) circumstances immediately after CA; (2) focused neurologic exam; (3) myoclonus and seizures; (4) serum biomarkers; (5) neuroimaging; (6) neurophysiologic testing; and (7) multimodal neuroprognostication. This position statement aims to serve as a practical guide to enhance in-hospital care of CA patients and emphasizes the adoption of a systematic, multimodal approach to neuroprognostication. It also highlights evidence gaps.

Association of ultra-early diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging with neurological outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to investigate the association between ultra-early (within 6 h after return of spontaneous circulation [ROSC]) brain diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (DW-MRI) and neurological outcomes in comatose survivors after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We conducted a registry-based observational study from May 2018 to February 2022 at a Chungnam national university hospital in Daejeon, Korea. Presence of high-signal intensity (HSI) (P_HSI) was defined as a HSI on DW-MRI with corresponding hypoattenuation on the apparent diffusion coefficient map irrespective of volume after hypoxic ischemic brain injury; absence of HSI was defined as A_HSI. The primary outcome was the dichotomized cerebral performance category (CPC) at 6 months, defined as good (CPC 1-2) or poor (CPC 3-5).

RESULTS

Of the 110 patients (30 women [27.3%]; median (interquartile range [IQR]) age, 58 [38-69] years), 48 (43.6%) had a good neurological outcome, time from ROSC to MRI scan was 2.8 h (IQR 2.0-4.0 h), and the P_HSI on DW-MRI was observed in 46 (41.8%) patients. No patients in the P_HSI group had a good neurological outcome compared with 48 (75%) patients in the A_HSI group. In the A_HSI group, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neuron-specific enolase (NSE) levels were significantly lower in the group with good neurological outcome compared to the group with poor neurological outcome (20.1 [14.4-30.7] ng/mL vs. 84.3 [32.4-167.0] ng/mL, P < 0.001). The area under the curve for P_HSI on DW-MRI was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.80-0.93), and the specificity and sensitivity for predicting a poor neurological outcome were 100% (95% CI 91.2%-100%) and 74.2% (95% CI 62.0-83.5%), respectively. A higher sensitivity was observed when CSF NSE levels were combined (88.7% [95% CI 77.1-95.1%]; 100% specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort study, P_HSI findings on ultra-early DW-MRI were associated with poor neurological outcomes 6 months following the cardiac arrest. The combined CSF NSE levels showed higher sensitivity at 100% specificity than on DW-MRI alone. Prospective multicenter studies are required to confirm these results.

Differential Effect of Targeted Temperature Management Between 32 °C and 36 °C Following Cardiac Arrest According to Initial Severity of Illness: Insights From Two International Data Sets

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines have emphasized actively avoiding fever to improve outcomes in patients who are comatose following resuscitation from cardiac arrest (ie, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest). However, whether targeted temperature management between 32 °C and 36 °C (TTM32-36) can improve neurologic outcome in some patients remains debated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is there an association between the use of TTM32-36 and outcome according to severity assessed at ICU admission using a previously derived risk score?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Data prospectively collected in the Sudden Death Expertise Center (SDEC) registry (France) between May 2011 and December 2017 and in the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Continuous Chest Compressions (ROC-CCC) trial (United States and Canada) between June 2011 and May 2015 were used for this study. Severity at ICU admission was assessed through a modified version of the Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis (mCAHP) score, divided into tertiles of severity. The study explored associations between TTM32-36 and favorable neurologic status at hospital discharge by using multiple logistic regression as well as in tertiles of severity for each data set.

RESULTS

A total of 2,723 patients were analyzed in the SDEC data set and 4,202 patients in the ROC-CCC data set. A favorable neurologic status at hospital discharge occurred in 728 (27%) patients in the French data set and in 1,239 (29%) patients in the North American data set. Among the French data set, TTM32-36 was independently associated with better neurologic outcome in the tertile of patients with low (adjusted OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.15-2.30; P = .006) and high (adjusted OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.06-3.54; P = .030) severity according to mCAHP at ICU admission. Similar results were observed in the North American data set (adjusted ORs of 1.36 [95% CI, 1.05-1.75; P = .020] and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.38-4.24; P = .002], respectively). No association was observed between TTM32-36 and outcome in the moderate groups of the two data sets.

INTERPRETATION

TTM32-36 was significantly associated with a better outcome in patients with low and high severity at ICU admission assessed according to the mCAHP score. Further studies are needed to evaluate individualized temperature control following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Differences in self-reported health between cardiac arrest survivors with good cerebral performance and survivors with moderate cerebral disability: a nationwide register study

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to compare self-reported health between cardiac arrest survivors with good cerebral performance (CPC 1) and survivors with moderate cerebral disability (CPC 2).

METHODS

This comparative register study was based on nationwide data from the Swedish Register of Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation. The study included 2058 in-hospital and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest survivors with good cerebral performance or survivors with moderate cerebral disability, 3-6 months postcardiac arrest. Survivors completed a questionnaire including the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and EQ-5D five-levels (EQ-5D-5L). Data were analysed using ordinal and linear regression models.

RESULTS

For all survivors, the prevalence of anxiety and depression symptoms measured by the HADS was 14% and 13%, respectively. Using the EQ-5D-5L, the cardiac arrest survivors reported most health problems relating to pain/discomfort (57%), followed by anxiety/depression (47%), usual activities (46%), mobility (40%) and self-care (18%). Compared with the survivors with good cerebral performance, survivors with moderate cerebral disability reported significantly higher symptom levels of anxiety and depression measured with HADS, and poorer health in all dimensions of the EQ-5D-5L after adjusting for age, sex, place of cardiac arrest, aetiology and initial rhythm (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings stress the importance of screening for health problems in all cardiac arrest survivors to identify those in need of professional support and rehabilitation, independent on neurological outcome.

External validation of cardiac arrest-specific prognostication scores developed for early prognosis estimation after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in a Korean multicenter cohort

We evaluated the performance of cardiac arrest-specific prognostication scores developed for outcome prediction in the early hours after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) in predicting long-term outcomes using independent data. The following scores were calculated for 1,163 OHCA patients who were treated with targeted temperature management (TTM) at 21 hospitals in South Korea: OHCA, cardiac arrest hospital prognosis (CAHP), C-GRApH (named on the basis of its variables), TTM risk, 5-R, NULL-PLEASE (named on the basis of its variables), Serbian quality of life long-term (SR-QOLl), cardiac arrest survival, revised post-cardiac arrest syndrome for therapeutic hypothermia (rCAST), Polish hypothermia registry (PHR) risk, and PROgnostication using LOGistic regression model for Unselected adult cardiac arrest patients in the Early stages (PROLOGUE) scores and prediction score by Aschauer et al. Their accuracies in predicting poor outcome at 6 months after OHCA were determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration belt. In the complete-case analyses, the PROLOGUE score showed the highest AUC (0.923; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.904–0.941), whereas the SR-QOLl score had the lowest AUC (0.749; 95% CI, 0.711–0.786). The discrimination performances were similar in the analyses after multiple imputation. The PROLOGUE, TTM risk, CAHP, NULL-PLEASE, 5-R, and cardiac arrest survival scores were well calibrated. The rCAST and PHR risk scores showed acceptable overall calibration, although they showed miscalibration under the 80% CI level at extreme prediction values. The OHCA score, C-GRApH score, prediction score by Aschauer et al., and SR-QOLl score showed significant miscalibration in both complete-case (P = 0.026, 0.013, 0.005, and < 0.001, respectively) and multiple-imputation analyses (P = 0.007, 0.018, < 0.001, and < 0.001, respectively). In conclusion, the discrimination performances of the prognostication scores were all acceptable, but some showed significant miscalibration.

Skin sympathetic nerve activity as a biomarker for neurologic recovery during therapeutic hypothermia for cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Targeted temperature management (TTM) improves neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest. However, better neurologic prognostication is needed.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that noninvasive recording of skin sympathetic nerve activity (SKNA) and its association with heart rate (HR) during TTM may serve as a biomarker of neurologic status.

METHODS

SKNA recordings were analyzed from 29 patients undergoing TTM. Patients were grouped based on Clinical Performance Category (CPC) score into group 1 (CPC 1-2) representing a good neurologic outcome and group 2 (CPC 3-5) representing a poor neurologic outcome.

RESULTS

Of the 29 study participants, 18 (62%) were deemed to have poor neurologic outcome. At all timepoints, low average skin sympathetic nerve activity (aSKNA) was associated with poor neurologic outcome (odds ratio 22.69; P = .002) and remained significant (P = .03) even when adjusting for presenting clinical factors. The changes in aSKNA and HR during warming in group 1 were significantly correlated (ρ = 0.49; P <.001), even when adjusting for corresponding temperature and mean arterial pressure measurements (P = .017), whereas this correlation was not observed in group 2. Corresponding to high aSKNA, there was increased nerve burst activity during warming in group 1 compared to group 2 (0.739 ± 0.451 vs 0.176 ± 0.231; P = .013).

CONCLUSION

Neurologic recovery was retrospectively associated with SKNA. Patients undergoing TTM who did not achieve neurologic recovery were associated with low SKNA and lacked a significant correlation between SKNA and HR. These preliminary results indicate that SKNA may potentially be a useful biomarker to predict neurologic status in patients undergoing TTM.

Targeted temperature management and early neuro-prognostication after cardiac arrest

Targeted temperature management (TTM) is a recommended neuroprotective intervention for coma after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). However, controversies exist concerning the proper implementation and overall efficacy of post-CA TTM, particularly related to optimal timing and depth of TTM and cooling methods. A review of the literature finds that optimizing and individualizing TTM remains an open question requiring further clinical investigation. This paper will summarize the preclinical and clinical trial data to-date, current recommendations, and future directions of this therapy, including new cooling methods under investigation. For now, early induction, maintenance for at least 24 hours, and slow rewarming utilizing endovascular methods may be preferred. Moreover, timely and accurate neuro-prognostication is valuable for guiding ethical and cost-effective management of post-CA coma. Current evidence for early neuro-prognostication after TTM suggests that a combination of initial prediction models, biomarkers, neuroimaging, and electrophysiological methods is the optimal strategy in predicting neurological functional outcomes.

Clinical Predictive Models of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: A Survey of the Current Science and Analysis of Model Performances

Background

More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known.

Methods and Results

We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c‐statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was −1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.76).

Conclusions

Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.

Resuscitating the Globally Ischemic Brain: TTM and Beyond

Cardiac arrest (CA) afflicts ~ 550,000 people each year in the USA. A small fraction of CA sufferers survive with a majority of these survivors emerging in a comatose state. Many CA survivors suffer devastating global brain injury with some remaining indefinitely in a comatose state. The pathogenesis of global brain injury secondary to CA is complex. Mechanisms of CA-induced brain injury include ischemia, hypoxia, cytotoxicity, inflammation, and ultimately, irreversible neuronal damage. Due to this complexity, it is critical for clinicians to have access as early as possible to quantitative metrics for diagnosing injury severity, accurately predicting outcome, and informing patient care. Current recommendations involve using multiple modalities including clinical exam, electrophysiology, brain imaging, and molecular biomarkers. This multi-faceted approach is designed to improve prognostication to avoid "self-fulfilling" prophecy and early withdrawal of life-sustaining treatments. Incorporation of emerging dynamic monitoring tools such as diffuse optical technologies may provide improved diagnosis and early prognostication to better inform treatment. Currently, targeted temperature management (TTM) is the leading treatment, with the number of patients needed to treat being ~ 6 in order to improve outcome for one patient. Future avenues of treatment, which may potentially be combined with TTM, include pharmacotherapy, perfusion/oxygenation targets, and pre/postconditioning. In this review, we provide a bench to bedside approach to delineate the pathophysiology, prognostication methods, current targeted therapies, and future directions of research surrounding hypoxic-ischemic brain injury (HIBI) secondary to CA.