Emergency Department disposition decisions and associated mortality and costs in ICU patients with suspected infection

Identifying Patient Subpopulations with Significant Race-Sex Differences in Emergency Department Disposition Decisions

Background/objectives

The race-sex differences in emergency department (ED) disposition decisions have been reported widely. Our objective is to identify demographic and clinical subgroups for which this difference is most pronounced, which will facilitate future targeted research on potential disparities and interventions.

Methods

We performed a retrospective analysis of 93 987 White and African-American adults assigned an Emergency Severity Index of 3 at 3 large EDs from January 2019 to February 2020. Using random forests, we identified the Elixhauser comorbidity score, age, and insurance status as important variables to divide data into subpopulations. Logistic regression models were then fitted to test race-sex differences within each subpopulation while controlling for other patient characteristics and ED conditions.

Results

In each subpopulation, African-American women were less likely to be admitted than White men with odds ratios as low as 0.304 (95% confidence interval (CI): [0.229, 0.404]). African-American men had smaller admission odds compared to White men in subpopulations of 41+ years of age or with very low/high Elixhauser scores, odds ratios being as low as 0.652 (CI: [0.590, 0.747]). White women were less likely to be admitted than White men in subpopulations of 18 to 40 or 41 to 64 years of age, with low Elixhauser scores, or with Self-Pay or Medicaid insurance status with odds ratios as low as 0.574 (CI: [0.421, 0.784]).

Conclusions

While differences in likelihood of admission were lessened by younger age for African-American men, and by older age, higher Elixhauser score, and Medicare or Commercial insurance for White women, they persisted in all subgroups for African-American women. In general, patients of age 64 years or younger, with low comorbidity scores, or with Medicaid or no insurance appeared most prone to potential disparities in admissions.

Association between emergency department disposition and mortality in patients with COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome

Objectives

Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 frequently develop hypoxemia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) after admission. In non-COVID-19 ARDS studies, admission to hospital wards with subsequent transfer to intensive care unit (ICU) is associated with worse outcomes. We hypothesized that initial admission to the ward may affect outcomes in patient with COVID-19 ARDS.

Methods

This was a retrospective study of consecutive adults admitted for COVID-19 ARDS between March 2020 and March 2021 at Stanford Health Care. Mortality scores at hospital admission (Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium Mortality Score [4C score]) and ICU admission (Simplified Acute Physiology Score III [SAPS-III]) were calculated, as well as ROX index for patients on high flow nasal oxygen. Patients were classified by emergency department (ED) disposition (ward-first vs. ICU-direct), and 28- and 60-day mortality and highest level of respiratory support within 1 day of ICU admission were compared. A second cohort (April 2021‒July 2022, n = 129) was phenotyped to validate mortality outcome.

Results

A total of 157 patients were included, 48% of whom were first admitted to the ward (n = 75). Ward-first patients had more comorbidities, including lung disease. Ward-first patients had lower 4C and similar SAPS-III score, yet increased mortality at 28 days (32% vs. 17%, hazard ratio [HR] 2.0, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.0‒3.7, p = 0.039) and 60 days (39% vs. 23%, HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.04‒3.22, p = 0.037) compared to ICU-direct patients. More ward-first patients escalated to mechanical ventilation on day 1 of ICU admission (36% vs. 14%, p = 0.002) despite similar ROX index. Ward-first patients who upgraded to ICU within 48 h of ED presentation had the highest mortality. Mortality findings were replicated in a sensitivity analysis.

Conclusion

Despite similar baseline risk scores, ward-first patients with COVID-19 ARDS had increased mortality and escalation to mechanical ventilation compared to ICU-direct patients. Ward-first patients requiring ICU upgrade within 48 h were at highest risk, highlighting a need for improved identification of this group at ED admission.

Antibiotic Guideline Adherence at the Emergency Department: A Descriptive Study from a Country with a Restrictive Antibiotic Policy

BACKGROUND

Denmark has a low level of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Patients hospitalized with suspected infection often present with unspecific symptoms. This challenges the physician between using narrow-spectrum antibiotics in accordance with guidelines or broad-spectrum antibiotics to compensate for diagnostic uncertainty. The aim of this study was to investigate adherence to a restrictive antibiotic guideline for the most common infection in emergency departments (EDs), namely community-acquired pneumonia (CAP).

METHOD

This multicenter descriptive cross-sectional study included adults admitted to Danish EDs with a suspected infection. Data were collected prospectively from medical records.

RESULTS

We included 954 patients in the analysis. The most prescribed antibiotics were penicillin with beta-lactamase inhibitor at 4 h (307 (32.2%)), 48 h (289 (30.3%)), and day 5 after admission (218 (22.9%)). The empirical antibiotic treatment guidelines for CAP were followed for 126 (31.3%) of the CAP patients. At 4 h, antibiotics were administered intravenously to 244 (60.7%) of the CAP patients. At day 5, 218 (54.4%) received oral antibiotics.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to CAP guidelines was poor. In a country with a restrictive antibiotic policy, infections are commonly treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics against recommendations.

An interpretable ensemble learning model facilitates early risk stratification of ischemic stroke in intensive care unit: Development and external validation of ICU-ISPM

Ischemic stroke (IS) is a common and severe condition that requires intensive care unit (ICU) admission, with high mortality and variable prognosis. Accurate and reliable predictive tools that enable early risk stratification can facilitate interventions to improve patient outcomes; however, such tools are currently lacking. In this study, we developed and validated novel ensemble learning models based on soft voting and stacking methods to predict in-hospital mortality from IS in the ICU using two public databases: MIMIC-IV and eICU-CRD. Additionally, we identified the key predictors of mortality and developed a user-friendly online prediction tool for clinical use. The soft voting ensemble model, named ICU-ISPM, achieved an AUROC of 0.861 (95% CI: 0.829-0.892) and 0.844 (95% CI: 0.819-0.869) in the internal and external test cohorts, respectively. It significantly outperformed the APACHE scoring system and was more robust than individual models. ICU-ISPM obtained the highest performance compared to other models in similar studies. Using the SHAP method, the model was interpretable, revealing that GCS score, age, and intubation were the most important predictors of mortality. This model also provided a risk stratification system that can effectively distinguish between low-, medium-, and high-risk patients. Therefore, the ICU-ISPM is an accurate, reliable, interpretable, and clinically applicable tool, which is expected to assist clinicians in stratifying IS patients by the risk of mortality and rationally allocating medical resources. Based on ICU-ISPM, an online risk prediction tool was further developed, which was freely available at: http://ispm.idrblab.cn/.

Examination of Impact of After-Hours Admissions on Hospital Resource Use, Patient Outcomes, and Costs

Background. Nighttime and weekends in hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) contexts are thought to present a greater risk for adverse events than daytime admissions. Although some studies exist comparing admission time with patient outcomes, the results are contradictory. No studies currently exist comparing costs with the time of admission. We investigated the differences in-hospital mortality, ICU length of stay, ICU mortality, and cost between daytime and nighttime admissions. Methods. All adult patients (≥18 years of age) admitted to a large academic medical-surgical ICU between 2011 and 2015 were included. Admission cohorts were defined as daytime (8:00–16:59) or nighttime (17:00–07:59). Student’s t-tests and chi-squared tests were used to test for associations between days spent in the ICU, days on mechanical ventilation, comorbidities, diagnoses, and cohort membership. Regression analysis was used to test for associations between patient and hospitalization characteristics and in-hospital mortality and total ICU costs. Results. The majority of admissions occurred during nighttime hours (69.5%) with no difference in the overall Elixhauser comorbidity score between groups ( $p=0.22$ ). Overall ICU length of stay was 7.96 days for daytime admissions compared to 7.07 days ( $p=0.001$ ) for patients admitted during nighttime hours. Overall mortality was significantly higher in daytime admissions (22.5% vs 20.6, $p=0.012$ ); however, ICU mortality was not different. The average MODS was 2.9 with those admitted during the daytime having a significantly higher MODS (3.0, $p=0.046$ ). Total ICU cost was significantly higher for daytime admissions ( $p=0.003$ ). Adjusted ICU mortality was similar in both groups despite an increased rate of adverse events for nighttime admissions. Daytime admissions were associated with increased cost. There was no difference in all hospital total cost or all hospital direct cost between groups. These findings are likely due to the higher severity of illness in daytime admissions. Conclusion. Daytime admissions were associated with a higher severity of illness, mortality rate, and ICU cost. To further account for the effect of staffing differences during off-hours, it may be beneficial to compare weekday and weeknight admission times with associated mortality rates.

The impact of a sepsis performance improvement program in the emergency department: a before–after intervention study

Purpose

The latest Surviving Sepsis Campaign guidelines advocate that all hospitals use sepsis performance improvement programs. However, there is a limited evidence about how to structure such programs and what their potential impact is on sepsis management and outcomes in the emergency department (ED). In this study, we evaluated the implementation of a sepsis performance improvement program in the ED including a dedicated sepsis response team and analyzed the management and outcomes of sepsis patients before and after.

Methods

We conducted a before–after interventional study in the ED of the Amsterdam University Medical Centers, the Netherlands. The sepsis performance improvement program included regular educational meetings, daily audits and weekly feedback, a screening tool, and a dedicated multidisciplinary sepsis response team. We studied all adult patients who presented to the ED with a suspected infection and a Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) ≥ 3 during their stay. In the postintervention phase, these patients were seen by the sepsis team. Process-related and patient-related outcomes were measured between November 2019 and February 2020 (preintervention) and December 2021–May 2022 (postintervention).

Results

A total of 265 patients were included in the primary study, 132 patients preintervention and 133 patients postintervention. The postintervention phase was associated with improvements in nearly all process-related outcomes, such as a shorter time to antibiotics (66 vs. 143 min; p < 0.001), increased number of lactate measurements (72.9 vs. 46.2%; p < 0.001), and improved completeness of documented MEWS scores (85.0 vs. 62.9%; p < 0.001). Except for an improvement in the number of immediate versus delayed ICU admissions (100% immediate vs. 64.3% immediate; p = 0.012), there was no improvement in the other patient-related outcomes such as 28 days mortality (14.3 vs. 9.1%; p = 0.261), during the postintervention phase.

Conclusion

Our program stimulated physicians to make timely decisions regarding diagnostics and treatment of sepsis in the ED. Implementing the sepsis performance improvement program was associated with significant improvements in most process-related outcomes but with minimal improvements in patient-related outcomes in our cohort.

Hospital-related costs of sepsis around the world: A systematic review exploring the economic burden of sepsis

AIM

The aim of this study was to examine the quality of manuscripts reporting sepsis health care costs and to provide an overview of hospital-related expenditures for sepsis in adult patients around the world.

METHODS

We systematically searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane and Google Scholar to identify relevant studies between January 2010 and January 2022. We selected articles that provided costs and cost-effectiveness analyses, defined sepsis and described their cost calculation method. All costs were adjusted to 2020 US dollars. Medians and interquartile ranges (IQRs) for various costs of sepsis were calculated. The quality of economic studies was assessed using the Drummond 10-item checklist.

RESULTS

Overall, 26 studies met our eligibility criteria. The mean total hospital costs per patient varied largely, between €1101 and €91,951. The median (IQR) of the total sepsis costs per country were €36,191 (€17,158 - €53,349), which equals €50 (€34 - €84) per capita annually. The relative amount of healthcare budget spent on sepsis was 2.65%, which equals 0.33% of the gross national product (GNP).

CONCLUSION

While general sepsis costs are high, there is considerable variability between countries regarding the costs of sepsis. Further studies examining the impact on sepsis costs, especially on the general ward, can help justify, design and monitor initiatives on prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of this time-critical and potentially preventable disease.

Increased Mortality and Costs Associated with Adverse Events in Intensive Care Unit Patients

Background: Adverse events (AEs) are defined as unintended complications occurring to patients as a result of medical care. AEs are especially prevalent in the intensive care unit (ICU) setting and may lead to negative patient outcomes. Although many studies have examined the impact of AEs on patient outcomes, few have investigated their associated costs. Methods: The study population consisted of 17 173 adult patients (≥18 years of age) who were admitted to the ICU at The Ottawa Hospital (TOH) between 2011 and 2016. AEs were categorized using an established International Classification of Diseases 10th revision (ICD-10) patient safety indicators (PSI) system for AE detection. Logistic regression was performed to determine the association between AEs and in-hospital outcomes, including mortality. In addition, we constructed a generalized linear model to assess the independent association between AEs and total hospital costs. Results: Patients who experienced an AE had longer total hospital and ICU lengths of stay, required more invasive ICU interventions, had more complex discharge plans, and experienced higher rates of in-hospital mortality compared to those who did not experience an AE. Average total hospital costs and ICU-specific costs were higher among patients who experienced an AE ($72 718; $46 715) relative to their counterparts ($20 543; $16 217), but the per day cost was comparable in both groups. After controlling for age, sex, patient comorbidities, and illness severity, AEs were significantly associated with an increased odds of mortality (OR = 1.13, 95% CIs = 1.04, 1.22) and total average costs (Cost Ratio = 1.04, 95% CIs = 1.06, 1.08). The most impactful AE subtypes from a cost- and patient-perspective were hospital-acquired infections (HAI) and cardiac-related AEs. Conclusion: Incidence of AEs among ICU patients is associated with higher patient mortality and elevated costs. Specific causes of these AEs should be investigated, with further protocols and interventions developed to reduce their occurrence.

The role of procalcitonin in identifying high-risk cancer patients with febrile neutropenia: A useful alternative to the multinational association for supportive care in cancer score

Background

The Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk index has been utilized to determine the risk for poor clinical outcomes in patients with febrile neutropenia (FN) in an emergency center (EC). However, this index comprises subjective elements and elaborated metrics limiting its use in ECs. We sought to determine whether procalcitonin (PCT) level (biomarker of bacterial infection) with or without lactate level (marker of inadequate tissue perfusion) offers a potential alternative to MASSC score in predicting the outcomes of patients with FN presenting to an EC.

Methods

We retrospectively identified 550 cancer patients with FN who presented to our EC between April 2018, and April 2019, and had serum PCT and lactate levels measured.

Results

Compared with patients with PCT levels <0.25 ng/ml, those with levels ≥0.25 ng/ml had a significantly higher 14‐day mortality rate (5.2% vs. 0.7%; p = 0.002), a higher bloodstream infection (BSI) rate, and a longer hospital length of stay (LOS). Logistic regression analysis showed that patients with PCT levels ≥0.25 ng/ml and lactate levels >2.2 mmol/L were more likely to be admitted and have an LOS >7 days, BSI, and 14‐day mortality than patients with lower levels. PCT level was a significantly better predictor of BSI than MASSC score (p = 0.003) or lactate level (p < 0.0001).

Conclusions

Procalcitonin level is superior to MASCC index in predicting BSI. The combination of PCT and lactate levels is a good predictor of BSI, hospital admission, and 14‐day mortality and could be useful in identifying high‐risk FN patients who require hospital admission.

Failure mode and effects analysis on the control effect of multi-drug-resistant bacteria in ICU patients

OBJECTIVE

The failure mode and effect analysis of the prevention and control in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with multi-drug-resistant (MDR) bacterial infection were explored and analyzed in this research.

METHODS

A total of 251 critically ill patients who were hospitalized in the ICU from June to December 2019 were selected as the control group, and another 258 patients who were hospitalized in the ICU from January to June 2020 were set as the observation group. The control-group patients received conventional ICU care, the observation group was treated by the failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), and then the prevention and control effect of the two nursing modes on multi-drug-resistant bacteria infection in the two groups were compared accordingly.

RESULTS

The RPN values of the five highest-level factors in the nursing process were critically lower after the improved interventions than before the improvement. The infection rate of MDR bacteria in the observation group was obviously lower than that in the control group (14.73%, 26.69%, χ² =11.1233, P=0.0009). In addition, the mortality rate of patients with MDR in the observation group was remarkably lower than that in the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (5.26%, 22.39%, χ² =5.2405, P=0.0221). The satisfaction of the observation group with the ICU treatment was critically higher than that of the control group, and the difference was statistically significant (89.53%, 76.49%, χ² =15.4094, P=0.0001).

CONCLUSION

Through the application of FMEA to prevent MDR bacterial infection in ICU patients, nursing staff can accurately pay attention to the keynotes in nursing process, and as such reduce the proportion and mortality of MDR infection in ICU patients and promote the patients' satisfaction with nursing, which are all worthy of clinical application.

Predicting in-hospital mortality in adult non-traumatic emergency department patients: a retrospective comparison of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and machine learning approach

Background

A feasible and accurate risk prediction systems for emergency department (ED) patients is urgently required. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a wide-used tool to predict clinical outcomes in ED. Literatures showed that machine learning (ML) had better predictability in specific patient population than traditional scoring system. By analyzing a large multicenter dataset, we aim to develop a ML model to predict in-hospital morality of the adult non traumatic ED patients for different time stages, and comparing performance with other ML models and MEWS.

Methods

A retrospective observational cohort study was conducted in five Taiwan EDs including two tertiary medical centers and three regional hospitals. All consecutively adult (>17 years old) non-traumatic patients admit to ED during a 9-year period (January first, 2008 to December 31th, 2016) were included. Exclusion criteria including patients with (1) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and (2) discharge against medical advice and transferred to other hospital (3) missing collect variables. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and were categorized into 6, 24, 72, 168 hours mortality. MEWS was calculated by systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, body temperature, and level of consciousness. An ensemble supervised stacking ML model was developed and compared to sensitive and unsensitive Xgboost, Random Forest, and Adaboost. We conducted a performance test and examine both the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) and the area under the precision and recall curve (AUPRC) as the comparative measures.

Result

After excluding 182,001 visits (7.46%), study group was consisted of 24,37,326 ED visits. The dataset was split into 67% training data and 33% test data for ML model development. There was no statistically difference found in the characteristics between two groups. For the prediction of 6, 24, 72, 168 hours in-hospital mortality, the AUROC of MEW and ML mode was 0.897, 0.865, 0.841, 0.816 and 0.939, 0.928, 0.913, 0.902 respectively. The stacking ML model outperform other ML model as well. For the prediction of in-hospital mortality over 48-hours, AUPRC performance of MEWS drop below 0.1, while the AUPRC of ML mode was 0.317 in 6 hours and 0.2150 in 168 hours. For each time frame, ML model achieved statistically significant higher AUROC and AUPRC than MEWS (all P < 0.001). Both models showed decreasing prediction ability as time elapse, but there was a trend that the gap of AUROC values between two model increases gradually (P < 0.001). Three MEWS thresholds (score >3, >4, and >5) were determined as baselines for comparison, ML mode consistently showed improved or equally performance in sensitivity, PPV, NPV, but not in specific.

Conclusion

Stacking ML methods improve predicted in-hospital mortality than MEWS in adult non-traumatic ED patients, especially in the prediction of delayed mortality.

Comparison of qSOFA and Hospital Early Warning Scores for prognosis in suspected sepsis in emergency department patients: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Sepsis is a major cause of morbidity and mortality and many tools exist to facilitate early recognition. This review compares two tools: the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) and Early Warning Scores (National/Modified Early Warning Scores (NEWS/MEWS)) for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission and mortality when applied in the emergency department.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted using Medline, CINAHL, Embase and Cochrane Library, handsearching of references and a grey literature search with no language or date restrictions. Two authors selected studies and quality assessment completed using QUADAS-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivities and specificities were compared.

RESULTS

13 studies were included, totalling 403 865 patients. All reported mortality and six reported ICU admission.The ranges for AUROC estimates varied from little better than chance to good prediction of mortality (NEWS: 0.59-0.88; qSOFA: 0.57-0.79; MEWS 0.56-0.75), however, individual papers generally reported higher AUROC values for NEWS than qSOFA. NEWS values demonstrated a tendency towards better sensitivity for ICU admission (NEWS ≥5, 46%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 12%-53%) and mortality (NEWS ≥5, 51%-97%; qSOFA ≥2, 14%-71%) but lower specificity (ICU: NEWS ≥5, 25%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 67%-99%; mortality: NEWS ≥5, 22%-91%; qSOFA ≥2, 58%-99%).

CONCLUSION

The wide range of AUROC estimates and high heterogeneity limit our conclusions. Allowing for this, the NEWS AUROC was consistently higher than qSOFA within individual papers. Both scores allow threshold setting, determined by the preferred compromise between sensitivity and specificity. At established thresholds NEWS tended to higher sensitivity while qSOFA tended to a higher specificity.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42019131414.

Retrospective single-centre descriptive study of the characteristics, management and outcomes of adult patients with suspected sepsis in the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for adults presenting to the emergency department (ED) with suspected sepsis recommend protocols and bundles that promote rapid and potentially intensive treatment, but give little consideration of how patient characteristics, such as age, functional status and comorbidities, might influence management. This study aimed to describe the characteristics, management and outcomes of adults attending the ED with suspected sepsis, and specifically describe the prevalence of comorbidities, functional impairment and escalations of care.

METHODS

We undertook a single-centre retrospective observational study involving medical record review of a random sample of adults admitted to an ED between February 2018 and January 2019 with suspected sepsis. Descriptive statistics were used with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for key proportions.

RESULTS

We included 509 patients (median age 74 years), of whom 49.3% met the Sepsis-3 criteria. Less than half of the patients were living at home independently (42.5%) or could walk independently (41.5%), 19.3% were care home residents and 89.2% of patients had one or more comorbidity. 22% had a pre-existing do not attempt resuscitation order. 6.5% were referred to intensive care, and 34.3% of the 13.2% who died in-hospital had an escalation plan explicitly documented.

CONCLUSION

Adults with suspected sepsis have substantial functional limitations, comorbidities and treatment directives that should be considered in guidelines, especially recommendations for escalation of care.

Frailty and associated prognosis among older emergency department patients with suspected infection: A prospective, observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Prognosis and disposition among older emergency department (ED) patients with suspected infection remains challenging. Frailty is increasingly recognized as a predictor of poor prognosis among critically ill patients; however, its association with clinical outcomes among older ED patients with suspected infection is unknown.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter prospective cohort study at two tertiary care EDs. We included older ED patients (≥75 years) with suspected infection. Frailty at baseline (before index illness) was explicitly measured for all patients by the treating physicians using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS). We defined frailty as a CFS 5-8. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for known confounders. We also compared the prognostic accuracy of frailty with the Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS) and Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) criteria.

RESULTS

We enrolled 203 patients, of whom 117 (57.6%) were frail. Frail patients were more likely to develop septic shock (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-2.51) and more likely to die within 30 days of ED presentation (aOR 2.05; 95% CI, 1.02-5.24). Sensitivity for mortality was highest among the CFS (73.1%; 95% CI, 52.2-88.4), compared with SIRS ≥ 2 (65.4%; 95% CI, 44.3-82.8) or qSOFA ≥ 2 (38.4; 95% CI, 20.2-59.4).

CONCLUSIONS

Frailty is a highly prevalent prognostic factor that can be used to risk-stratify older ED patients with suspected infection. ED clinicians should consider screening for frailty to optimize disposition in this population.

Impact of closure of the in-house psychiatric care unit on prehospital and emergency ward length of stay and disposition locations in patients who attempted suicide: A retrospective before-and-after cohort study at a community hospital in Japan

Suicide is an increasingly serious public health care concern worldwide. The impact of decreased in-house psychiatric resources on emergency care for suicidal patients has not been thoroughly examined. We evaluated the effects of closing an in-hospital psychiatric ward on the prehospital and emergency ward length of stay (LOS) and disposition location in patients who attempted suicide.This was a retrospective before-and-after study at a community emergency department (ED) in Japan. On March 31, 2014, the hospital closed its 50 psychiatric ward beds and outpatient consultation days were decreased from 5 to 2 days per week. Electronic health record data of suicidal patients who were brought to the ED were collected for 5 years before the decrease in in-hospital psychiatric services (April 1, 2009-March 31, 2014) and 5 years after the decrease (April 1, 2014-March 31, 2019). One-to-one propensity score matching was performed to compare prehospital and emergency ward LOS, and discharge location between the 2 groups.Of the 1083 eligible patients, 449 (41.5%) were brought to the ED after the closure of the psychiatric ward. Patients with older age, burns, and higher comorbidity index values, and those requiring endotracheal intubation, surgery, and emergency ward admission, were more likely to receive ED care after the psychiatric ward closure. In the propensity matched analysis with 418 pairs, the after-closure group showed a significant increase in median prehospital LOS (44.0 minutes vs 51.0 minutes, P < .001) and emergency ward LOS (3.0 days vs 4.0 days, P = .014) compared with the before-closure group. The rate of direct home return was significantly lower in the after-closure group compared with the before-closure group (87.1% vs 81.6%, odds ratio: 0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.45-0.96).The prehospital and emergency ward LOS for patients who attempted suicide in the study site increased significantly after a decrease in hospital-based mental health services. Conversely, there was significant reduction in direct home discharge after the decrease in in-house psychiatric care. These results have important implications for future policy to address the increasing care needs of patients who attempt suicide.

Midregional proadrenomedullin safely reduces hospitalization in a low severity cohort with infections in the ED: a randomized controlled multi-centre interventional pilot study

INTRODUCTION

The midregional fragment of proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM) is known to provide accurate short-, mid- and long term prognostic information in the triage and multi-dimensional risk assessment of patients in the emergency department (ED). In two independent observational cohorts MR-proADM values identified low disease severity patients without risk of disease progression in the ED with no 28 days mortality that wouldn´t require hospitalization. In this interventional study we want to show that the combination of an MR-proADM algorithm with clinical assessment is able to identify low risk patients not requiring hospitalization to safely reduce the number of hospital admissions.

METHODS

A randomized-controlled interventional multicenter study in 4 EDs in Spain. The study protocol was approved by Ethics Committees. Control arm patients received Standard Care. MR-proADM guided arm patients with low MR-proADM value (≤0.87 nmol/L) were treated as out-patients, with high MR-proADM value (>0.87 nmol/L) were hospitalized. The hospitalization rate was compared between the study arms.

RESULTS

Two hundred patients with suspicion of infection were enrolled. In the MR-proADM guided arm the hospital admission rate in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population was 17% lower than in the control arm (40.6% vs. 57.6%, p=0.024) and 20% lower in the per protocol (PP) population (37.2% vs. 57.6%, p=0.009). No deaths of out-patients and no significant difference for the safety endpoints readmission and representation rates were observed. The readmission rate was only slightly higher in the MR-proADM guided arm compared to the control arm (PP population: at 14 days 9.3% vs. 7.1%, difference 2.1% (95% CI: -11.0% to 15.2%); and at 28 days 11.1% vs. 9.5%, difference 1.6% (95% CI: -12.2% to 15.4%)). The rate of 28 days representation was slightly lower in the MR-proADM guided arm compared to the control arm (20.4% vs. 26.2%, difference -5.8% (95% CI: -25.0% to 13.4%); PP population).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing a MR-proADM algorithm optimizes ED workflows efficiently and sustainably. Hospitals can highly benefit from a reduced rate of hospitalizations by 20% using MR-proADM. The safety in the MR-proADM guided study arm was similar to the Standard Care arm.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT03770533.

Fever in returning travellers and migrants: disease severity markers to improve triage and management

Pathogen-based rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) can identify the presence or absence of infection, but do not indicate who will have a self-limited infection versus a life-threatening one. An RDT that incorporates disease severity markers could facilitate the triage and management of travellers and migrants presenting with fever.

Differences in outcomes for hospitalizations of systemic and non-systemic infections associated with vascular and cardiac grafts and devices: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Use of vascular and cardiac devices has expanded and is associated with a relative, though disproportionate, increase in device-associated infections.

AIM

To describe the association between cardiac/vascular device infections and outcomes in those with, and without systemic infections.

METHODS

We used the 2016 National Inpatient Sample and the International Classification of Diseases - 10^th revision codes to identify hospitalized individuals with vascular and cardiac device infections. Linear and logistic regression models were utilized to compare outcomes of death, length of stay (LOS) and hospitalization costs between individuals with and without systemic infection.

FINDINGS

There were a total of 65,110 hospitalizations associated with device infections with a mean age of 61.3 ± 15.9 years (standard deviation); 28,650 (44%) had systemic infections. Elixhauser comorbidity scores of three or greater were observed in 91.2% of individuals with systemic infections along with a higher prevalence of diabetes, renal disease and heart failure. The primary outcome of mortality was observed in 3965 individuals with an odds ratio of 3.97 (95% confidence interval (CI), 2.92-3.95) in those with systemic infections compared with those without. Mean LOS was 3.44 days longer (95% CI, 2.92-3.95) and mean cost was US$11,776 greater (95% CI, US$9826-12,727) in the systemic infection cohort.

CONCLUSION

Systemic cardiac and vascular device infections were associated with increased mortality, LOS and costs. Considering the increasing use of these life-saving devices, further work is needed to identify those at risk for infectious complications, particularly systemic infection, in order to enhance preventative strategies and improve health outcomes.

Association of a Care Bundle for Early Sepsis Management With Mortality Among Patients With Hospital-Onset or Community-Onset Sepsis

IMPORTANCE

The Early Management Bundle for Severe Sepsis/Septic Shock (SEP-1) is a quality metric based on a care bundle for early sepsis management. Published evidence on the association of SEP-1 with mortality is mixed and largely excludes cases of hospital-onset sepsis.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of the SEP-1 bundle with mortality and organ dysfunction in cohorts with hospital-onset or community-onset sepsis.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used data from 4 University of California hospitals from October 1, 2014, to October 1, 2017. Adult inpatients with a diagnosis consistent with sepsis or disseminated infection and laboratory or vital signs meeting the Sepsis-3 (Third International Consensus Definitions for Sepsis and Septic Shock) criteria were divided into community-onset sepsis and hospital-onset sepsis cohorts based on whether time 0 of sepsis occurred after arrival in the emergency department or an inpatient area. Data were analyzed from April to October 2019. Additional analyses were performed from December 2019 to January 2020.

EXPOSURES

Administration of SEP-1 and 4 individual bundle components (serum lactate level testing, blood culture, broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic treatment, and intravenous fluid treatment).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcome was days requiring vasopressor support, measured as vasopressor days.

RESULTS

Among the 6404 patient encounters identified (3535 men [55.2%]; mean [SD] age, 64.0 [18.2] years), 2296 patients (35.9%) had hospital-onset sepsis. Among 4108 patients (64.1%) with community-onset sepsis, serum lactate level testing within 3 hours of time 0 was associated with reduced mortality (absolute difference, -7.61%; 95% CI, -14.70% to -0.54%). Blood culture (absolute difference, -1.10 days; 95% CI, -1.85 to -0.34 days) and broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic treatment (absolute difference, -0.62 days; 95% CI, -1.02 to -0.22 days) were associated with fewer vasopressor days. Among patients with hospital-onset sepsis, broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic treatment was the only bundle component significantly associated with any improved outcome (mortality difference, -5.20%; 95% CI, -9.84% to -0.56%). Care that was adherent to the complete SEP-1 bundle was associated with increased vasopressor days in patients with community-onset sepsis (absolute difference, 0.31 days; 95% CI, 0.11-0.51 days) but was not significantly associated with reduced mortality in either cohort (absolute difference, -0.07%; 95% CI, -3.02% to 2.88% in community-onset; absolute difference, -0.42%; 95% CI, -6.77% to 5.93% in hospital-onset).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

SEP-1-adherent care was not associated with improved outcomes of sepsis. Although multiple components of SEP-1 were associated with reduced mortality or decreased days of vasopressor therapy for patients who presented with sepsis in the emergency department, only broad-spectrum intravenous antibiotic treatment was associated with reduced mortality when time 0 occurred in an inpatient unit. Current sepsis quality metrics may need refinement.

Frailty and Associated Outcomes and Resource Utilization Among Older ICU Patients With Suspected Infection

OBJECTIVES

Suspected infection and sepsis are common conditions seen among older ICU patients. Frailty has prognostic importance among critically ill patients, but its impact on outcomes and resource utilization in older patients with suspected infection is unknown. We sought to evaluate the association between patient frailty (defined as a Clinical Frailty Scale ≥ 5) and outcomes of critically ill patients with suspected infection. We also evaluated the association between frailty and the quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score.

DESIGN

Analysis of a prospectively collected registry.

SETTING

Two hospitals within a single tertiary care level hospital system between 2011 and 2016.

PATIENTS

We analyzed 1,510 patients 65 years old or older (at the time of ICU admission) and with suspected infection at the time of ICU admission. Of these, 507 (33.6%) were categorized as "frail" (Clinical Frailty Scale ≥ 5).

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. A total of 558 patients (37.0%) died in-hospital. Frailty was associated with increased risk of in-hospital death (adjusted odds ratio, 1.81 [95% CIs, 1.34-2.49]). Frailty was also associated with higher likelihood of discharge to long-term care (adjusted odds ratio, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.50-2.64]) and higher likelihood of readmission within 30 days (adjusted odds ratio, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.38-2.34]). Frail patients had increased ICU resource utilization and total costs. The combination of frailty and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment greater than or equal to 2 further increased the risk of death (adjusted odds ratio, 7.54 [95% CI, 5.82-9.90]).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of frailty among older ICU patients with suspected infection is associated with increased mortality, discharge to long-term care, hospital readmission, resource utilization, and costs. This work highlights the importance of clinical frailty in risk stratification of older ICU patients with suspected infection.

Impact of Anticoagulation on Mortality and Resource Utilization Among Critically Ill Patients With Major Bleeding

OBJECTIVES

Patients with major bleeding are commonly admitted to the ICU. A growing number are on either oral or parenteral anticoagulation, but the impact of anticoagulation on patient outcomes is unknown. We sought to examine this association between anticoagulation therapy and mortality, as well as the independent effects of warfarin compared to direct oral anticoagulants.

DESIGN

Analysis of a prospectively collected registry (2011-2017) of consecutive ICU patients admitted with major bleeding (as defined by International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis clinical criteria).

SETTING

Two hospitals within a single tertiary care level hospital system.

PATIENTS

We analyzed 1,598 patients identified with major bleeding, of which 245 (15.3%) had been using anticoagulation at the time of ICU admission. Of patients on anticoagulation, 149 were using warfarin, and 60 were using a direct oral anticoagulant.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome, in-hospital mortality, was analyzed using a multivariable logistic regression model. Patients with anticoagulation-associated major bleeding had higher in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.16-1.92). Among survivors, anticoagulation use was associated with longer median hospital length of stay, and higher mean costs. No differences in hospital mortality were seen between warfarin- and direct oral anticoagulant-associated major bleeding. Patients with warfarin-associated major bleeding had longer median length of stay (11 vs 6 d; p = 0.02), and higher total costs than patients with direct oral anticoagulant-associated major bleeding.

CONCLUSIONS

Among ICU patients admitted with major bleeding, pre-admission anticoagulation use was associated with increased hospital mortality, prolonged length of stay, and higher costs among survivors. As compared to direct oral anticoagulants, patients with warfarin-associated major bleeding had increased length of stay and costs. These findings have important implications in the care of ICU patients with major bleeding.

Biomarkers and clinical scores to aid the identification of disease severity and intensive care requirement following activation of an in-hospital sepsis code

BACKGROUND

Few validated biomarker or clinical score combinations exist which can discriminate between cases of infection and other non-infectious conditions following activation of an in-hospital sepsis code, as well as provide an accurate severity assessment of the corresponding host response. This study aimed to identify suitable blood biomarker (MR-proADM, PCT, CRP and lactate) or clinical score (SOFA and APACHE II) combinations to address this unmet clinical need.

METHODS

A prospective, observational study of patients activating the Vall d'Hebron University Hospital sepsis code (ISC) within the emergency department (ED), hospital wards and intensive care unit (ICU). Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves, logistic and Cox regression analysis were used to assess performance.

RESULTS

148 patients fulfilled the Vall d'Hebron ISC criteria, of which 130 (87.8%) were retrospectively found to have a confirmed diagnosis of infection. Both PCT and MR-proADM had a moderate-to-high performance in discriminating between infected and non-infected patients following ISC activation, although the optimal PCT cut-off varied significantly across departments. Similarly, MR-proADM and SOFA performed well in predicting 28- and 90-day mortality within the total infected patient population, as well as within patients presenting with a community-acquired infection or following a medical emergency or prior surgical procedure. Importantly, MR-proADM also showed a high association with the requirement for ICU admission after ED presentation [OR (95% CI) 8.18 (1.75-28.33)] or during treatment on the ward [OR (95% CI) 3.64 (1.43-9.29)], although the predictive performance of all biomarkers and clinical scores diminished between both settings.

CONCLUSIONS

Results suggest that the individual use of PCT and MR-proADM might help to accurately identify patients with infection and assess the overall severity of the host response, respectively. In addition, the use of MR-proADM could accurately identify patients requiring admission onto the ICU, irrespective of whether patients presented to the ED or were undergoing treatment on the ward. Initial measurement of both biomarkers might therefore facilitate early treatment strategies following activation of an in-hospital sepsis code.

New-onset atrial fibrillation and associated outcomes and resource use among critically ill adults-a multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) is commonly encountered in critically ill adults. Evidence evaluating the association between NOAF and patient-important outcomes in this population is conflicting. Furthermore, little is known regarding the association between NOAF and resource use or hospital costs.

METHODS

Retrospective analysis (2011-2016) of a prospectively collected registry from two Canadian hospitals of consecutive ICU patients aged ≥ 18 years. We excluded patients with a known history of AF prior to hospital admission. Any occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) was prospectively recorded by bedside nurses. The primary outcome was hospital mortality, and we used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounders. We used a generalized linear model to evaluate contributors to total cost.

RESULTS

We included 15,014 patients, and 1541 (10.3%) had NOAF during their ICU admission. While NOAF was not associated with increased odds of hospital death among the entire cohort (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.02 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.97-1.08]), an interaction was noted between NOAF and sepsis, and the presence of both was associated with higher odds of hospital mortality (aOR 1.28 [95% CI 1.09-1.36]) than either alone. Patients with NOAF had higher total costs (cost ratio [CR] 1.09 [95% CI 1.02-1.20]). Among patients with NOAF, treatment with a rhythm-control strategy was associated with higher costs (CR 1.24 [95% CI 1.07-1.40]).

CONCLUSIONS

While NOAF was not associated with death or requiring discharge to long-term care among critically ill patients, it was associated with increased length of stay in ICU and increased total costs.

Frailty and associated outcomes and resource utilization following in-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

In-hospital cardiac arrest (IHCA) is common and associated with high mortality. Frailty is increasingly recognized as a predictor of worse prognosis among critically ill patients, but its association with outcomes and resource utilization following IHCA is unknown.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis (2013-2016) of a prospectively collected registry from two hospitals of consecutive hospitalized adult patients with IHCA occurring on the hospital wards. We defined frailty using the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) score ≥5. CFS scores were based on validated medical review criteria. The primary outcome is hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes include return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), discharge to long-term care, and hospital costs. We used multivariable logistic regression to adjust for known confounders.

RESULTS

We included 477 patients, and 124 (26.0%) had frailty. Frailty was associated with increased odds of hospital death (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.91 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.37-3.48) and discharge to long-term care (aOR 1.94 [95% CI: 1.57-2.32]). Compared with patients without frailty, patients with frailty had decreased odds of ROSC following IHCA (aOR 0.63 [95% CI: 0.41-0.93]). No difference in mean total costs was demonstrated between patients with and without frailty ($50,799 vs. $45,849). Frail patients did have higher cost-per-survivor ($947,546 vs. $161,550).

CONCLUSIONS

Frail individuals who experience an IHCA are more likely to die in hospital or be discharged to long-term care, and less likely to achieve ROSC in comparison with individuals who are not frail. The hospital costs per-survivor of IHCA are increased when frailty is present.

Preadmission Antiplatelet Use and Associated Outcomes and Costs Among ICU Patients With Intracranial Hemorrhage

INTRODUCTION

Patients with intracranial hemorrhage (including intracerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and traumatic hemorrhage) are commonly admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Although indications for oral antiplatelet agents are increasing, the impact of preadmission use on outcomes in patients with intracranial hemorrhage admitted to the ICU is unknown. We sought to evaluate the association between preadmission oral antiplatelet use, in-hospital mortality, resource utilization, and costs among ICU patients with intracranial hemorrhage.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed a prospectively collected registry (2011-2016) and included consecutive adult patients from 2 hospitals admitted to ICU with intracranial hemorrhage. Patients were categorized on the basis of preadmission oral antiplatelet use. We excluded patients with preadmission anticoagulant use. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality and was analyzed using a multivariable logistic regression model. Contributors to total hospital cost were analyzed using a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution.

RESULTS

Of 720 included patients with intracranial hemorrhage, 107 (14.9%) had been using an oral antiplatelet agent at the time of ICU admission. Oral antiplatelet use was not associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio: 1.31 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-2.22]). Evaluation of total costs also revealed no association with oral antiplatelet use (adjusted ratio of means [aROM]: 0.92 [95% CI: 0.82-1.02, P = .10]). Total cost among patients with intracranial hemorrhage was driven by illness severity (aROM: 1.96 [95% CI: 1.94-1.98], P < .001), increasing ICU length of stay (aROM: 1.05 [95% CI: 1.05-1.06], P < .001), and use of invasive mechanical ventilation (aROM: 1.76 [95% CI: 1.68-1.86], P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

Among ICU patients admitted with intracranial hemorrhage, preadmission oral antiplatelet use was not associated with increased in-hospital mortality or hospital costs. These findings have important prognostic implications for clinicians who care for patients with intracranial hemorrhage.

Biomarkers and clinical scores to identify patient populations at risk of delayed antibiotic administration or intensive care admission

BACKGROUND

The performance of blood biomarkers (mid-regional proadrenomedullin (MR-proADM), procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP), and lactate) and clinical scores (Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), and quick SOFA) was compared to identify patient populations at risk of delayed treatment initiation and disease progression after presenting to the emergency department (ED) with a suspected infection.

METHODS

A prospective observational study across three EDs. Biomarker and clinical score values were calculated upon presentation and 72 h, and logistic and Cox regression used to assess the strength of association. Primary outcomes comprised of 28-day mortality prediction and delayed antibiotic administration or intensive care (ICU) admission, whilst secondary outcomes identified subsequent disease progression.

RESULTS

Six hundred eighty-four patients were enrolled with hospitalisation, ICU admission, and infection-related 28-day mortality rates of 72.8%, 3.4%, and 4.4%, respectively. MR-proADM and NEWS had the strongest association with hospitalisation and the requirement for antibiotic administration, whereas MR-proADM alone had the strongest association with ICU admission (OR [95% CI]: 5.8 [3.1 - 10.8]) and mortality (HR [95% CI]: 3.8 [2.2 - 6.5]). Patient subgroups with high MR-proADM concentrations (≥ 1.77 nmol/L) and low NEWS (< 5 points) values had significantly higher rates of ICU admission (8.1% vs 1.6%; p < 0.001), hospital readmission (18.9% vs. 5.9%; p < 0.001), infection-related mortality (13.5% vs. 0.2%; p < 0.001), and disease progression (29.7% vs. 4.9%; p < 0.001) than corresponding patients with low MR-proADM concentrations. ICU admission was delayed by 1.5 [0.25 - 5.0] days in patients with high MR-proADM and low NEWS values compared to corresponding patients with high NEWS values, despite similar 28-day mortality rates (13.5% vs. 16.5%). Antibiotics were withheld in 17.4% of patients with high MR-proADM and low NEWS values, with higher subsequent rates of ICU admission (27.3% vs. 4.8%) and infection-related hospital readmission (54.5% vs. 14.3%) compared to those administered antibiotics during ED treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with low severity signs of infection but high MR-proADM concentrations had an increased likelihood of subsequent disease progression, delayed antibiotic administration or ICU admission. Appropriate triage decisions and the rapid use of antibiotics in patients with high MR-proADM concentrations may constitute initial steps in escalating or intensifying early treatment strategies.

Outcomes of Older Hospitalized Patients Requiring Rapid Response Team Activation for Acute Deterioration

OBJECTIVES

Rapid response teams are groups of healthcare providers that have been implemented by many hospitals to respond to acutely deteriorating patients admitted to the hospital wards. Hospitalized older patients are at particular risk of deterioration. We sought to examine outcomes of older patients requiring rapid response team activation.

DESIGN

Analysis of a prospectively collected registry.

SETTING

Two hospitals within a single tertiary care level hospital system between 2012 and 2016.

PATIENTS

Five-thousand nine-hundred ninety-five patients were analyzed. Comparisons were made between older patients (defined as ≥ 75 yr old) and younger patients.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

All patient information, outcomes, and rapid response team activation information were gathered at the time of rapid response team activation and assessment. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Two-thousand three-hundred nine were older patients (38.5%). Of these, 835 (36.2%) died in-hospital, compared with 998 younger patients (27.1%) (adjusted odds ratio, 1.83 [1.54-2.18]; p < 0.001). Among patients admitted from home, surviving older patients were more likely to be discharged to a long-term care facility (adjusted odds ratio, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.89-3.33]; p < 0.001). Older patients were more likely to have prolonged delay to rapid response team activation (adjusted odds ratio, 1.79 [1.59-2.94]; p < 0.001). Among patients with goals of care allowing for ICU admission, older patients were less likely to be admitted to the ICU (adjusted odds ratio, 0.66 [0.36-0.79]), and less likely to have rapid response team activation during daytime hours (adjusted odds ratio, 0.73 [0.62-0.98]; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Older patients with in-hospital deterioration requiring rapid response team activation had increased odds of death and long-term care disposition. Rapid response team activation for older patients was more likely to be delayed, and occur during nighttime hours. These findings highlight the worse outcomes seen among older patients with in-hospital deterioration, identifying areas for future quality improvement.

Near-simultaneous intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and all-cause mortality: a cohort study

PURPOSE

Prior studies have reported the adverse effects of strain on patient outcomes. There is a paucity of literature about a type of strain that may be caused by near-simultaneous intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. We hypothesized that when multiple admissions arrive nearly at the same time, the ICU teams are excessively strained, and this leads to unfavorable patient outcomes.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients admitted to an academic medical ICU of a tertiary referral center over five consecutive years. Primary outcomes were the all-cause hospital and ICU mortality.

RESULTS

We enrolled 13,234 consecutive ICU admissions during the study period. One-fourth of the admissions had an elapsed time since the last admission (ETLA) of < 55 min. Near-simultaneous admissions (NSA) had on average, a higher unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of ICU death of 1.16 (95% CI 1-1.35, P = 0.05), adjusted 1.23 (95% CI 1.04-1.44, P = 0.01), unadjusted hospital death of 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.24, P = 0.06), adjusted 1.20 (95% 1.05-1.35, P = 0.004), and a lower adjusted OR of home discharge of 0.91 (95% CI 0.84-0.99, P = 0.04). NSA was associated with 0.16 (95% CI 0.04-0.29, P = 0.01) added days in the ICU. For each incremental unit increase of the logarithmic transformation of ETLA [log (ETLA in minutes)], the average adjusted hospital mortality OR incrementally decreased by an added average OR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89‒0.97, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that near-simultaneous ICU admissions (NSA) are frequent and are associated with a dose-dependent effect on mortality, length of stay, and odds of home versus nursing facility discharge.

Hospital resource use and costs among abdominal aortic aneurysm repair patients admitted to the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. As a result, many of these patients are monitored postoperatively in the intensive care unit (ICU). However, little is known about resource utilization and costs associated with ICU admission in this population. We sought to evaluate predictors of total costs among patients admitted to the ICU after repair of nonruptured or ruptured AAA.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data (2011-2016) of ICU patients admitted after AAA repair. The primary outcome was total hospital costs. We used elastic net regression to identify pre-ICU admission predictors of hospitalization costs separately for nonruptured and ruptured AAA patients.

RESULTS

We included 552 patients in the analysis. Of these, 440 (79.7%) were admitted after repair of nonruptured AAA, and 112 (20.3%) were admitted after repair of ruptured AAA. The mean age of patients with nonruptured AAA was 74 (standard deviation, 9) years, and the mean age of patients with ruptured AAA was 70 (standard deviation, 8) years. Median total hospital cost (in Canadian dollars) was $21,555 (interquartile range, $17,798-$27,294) for patients with nonruptured AAA and $33,709 (interquartile range, $23,173-$53,913) for patients with ruptured AAA. Among both nonruptured and ruptured AAA patients, increasing age, illness severity, use of endovascular repair, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and excessive blood loss (≥4000 mL) were associated with increased costs, whereas having an anesthesiologist with vascular subspecialty training was associated with lower costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-, procedure-, and clinician-specific variables are associated with costs in patients admitted to the ICU after repair of AAA. These factors may be considered future targets in initiatives to improve cost-effectiveness in this population.

Tranexamic acid in the routine treatment of postpartum hemorrhage in the United States: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial demonstrated that tranexamic acid administered during postpartum hemorrhage reduces hemorrhage-related mortality and laparotomies. The World Health Organization has thus recommended early use of tranexamic acid in the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage. This recommendation has not been universally adopted in the United States, in part because of concerns about cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to demonstrate the cost-effectiveness of routine tranexamic acid administration in the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage in the United States, where the rate of hemorrhage-related mortality is lower than that described in the World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial.

STUDY DESIGN

We constructed a decision tree comparing 3 strategies in women with a clinical diagnosis of postpartum hemorrhage: no tranexamic acid, tranexamic acid given at any time, and ideal use of tranexamic acid given within 3 hours of delivery. The study was performed from a health care institution perspective with a time horizon of delivery until 6 weeks postpartum. We included interventions that differed by arm in the World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial (hemorrhage-related mortality, laparotomies, and brace or compression sutures) and incorporated probabilities and costs based on available data for a population of women with postpartum hemorrhage in the United States. In our base case, the rate of postpartum hemorrhage-related mortality was 0.0388%, and the cost of tranexamic acid was $37.80. We assumed that the relative risk reduction in death and laparotomy with tranexamic acid would be similar to the World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial (19% and 36%, respectively). The primary outcome was incremental cost per hemorrhage-related death averted, and a main secondary outcome was incremental cost per laparotomy avoided under each strategy. Another planned secondary outcome was cost per quality-adjusted life-year. We anticipated that the risk reduction (benefit) because of tranexamic acid in the United States may be less than in the World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial; thus, we performed 1-way and 2-way sensitivity analyses to explore the parameter uncertainty across a wide range of data-supported estimates. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses with Monte Carlo simulation were performed.

RESULTS

Tranexamic acid strategies were dominant (more effective and cost saving) compared with no tranexamic acid for patients with postpartum hemorrhage in the United States. One-way analyses showed that tranexamic acid is cost saving as long as the relative risk reduction of death with tranexamic acid is greater than 4.7%; the model was not sensitive to any other variables. Threshold analyses outside the bounds defined in the model showed that tranexamic acid is cost saving as long as the relative risk reduction of laparotomy with tranexamic acid is greater than 7% or the cost of tranexamic acid is less than $194. A 2-way sensitivity analysis of the risk reduction of death because of tranexamic acid and the baseline risk of postpartum hemorrhage-related death confirmed that tranexamic acid is cost saving across a wide range of plausible estimates. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the tranexamic acid strategies are cost saving in >99.9% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Despite the initial cost of administration, the annual net cost savings expected from routine use of tranexamic acid for the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage in the United States is $11.3 million, and we estimate that 9 maternal deaths would be averted in 1 year with this strategy. Giving tranexamic acid within 3 hours would almost triple the cost savings and improve maternal outcomes much further.

CONCLUSION

A policy of routine tranexamic acid early in the treatment of postpartum hemorrhage is likely to be cost saving in the United States. This conclusion holds true even when the relative risk reduction with tranexamic acid is significantly less than reported in the World Maternal Antifibrinolytic trial and when tranexamic acid is significantly more expensive than currently reported.

Prognostic accuracy of the Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS) and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) among hospitalized patients assessed by a rapid response team

Background

Rapid response teams (RRTs) respond to hospitalized patients experiencing clinical deterioration and help determine subsequent management and disposition. We sought to evaluate and compare the prognostic accuracy of the Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS) and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for prediction of in-hospital mortality following RRT activation. We secondarily evaluated a subgroup of patients with suspected infection.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data (2012–2016) of consecutive RRT patients from two hospitals. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. We calculated the number needed to examine (NNE), which indicates the number of patients that need to be evaluated in order to detect one future death.

Results

Five thousand four hundred ninety-one patients were included, of whom 1837 (33.5%) died in-hospital. Mean age was 67.4 years, and 51.6% were male. A HEWS above the low-risk threshold (≥ 5) had a sensitivity of 75.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 73.9–77.9) and specificity of 67.6% (95% CI 66.1–69.1) for mortality, with a NNE of 1.84. A NEWS2 above the low-risk threshold (≥ 5) had a sensitivity of 84.5% (95% CI 82.8–86.2), and specificity of 49.0% (95% CI: 47.4–50.7), with a NNE of 2.20. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 (95% CI 0.75–0.77) for HEWS and 0.72 (95% CI: 0.71–0.74) for NEWS2. Among suspected infection patients (n = 1708), AUROC for HEWS was 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.81) and for NEWS2, 0.75 (95% CI 0.73–0.78).

Conclusions

The HEWS has comparable clinical accuracy to NEWS2 for prediction of in-hospital mortality among RRT patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13054-019-2355-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Integrated fever management: disease severity markers to triage children with malaria and non-malarial febrile illness

Febrile symptoms in children are a leading cause of health-care seeking behaviour worldwide. The majority of febrile illnesses are uncomplicated and self-limited, without the need for referral or hospital admission. However, current diagnostic tools are unable to identify which febrile children have self-limited infection and which children are at risk of progressing to life-threatening infections, such as severe malaria. This paper describes the need for a simple community-based tool that can improve the early recognition and triage of febrile children, with either malarial or non-malarial illness, at risk of critical illness. The integration of a disease severity marker into existing malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) could enable detection of children at risk of severe infection in the hospital and community, irrespective of aetiology. Incorporation of a disease severity marker could inform individualized management and early triage of children at risk of life-threatening infection. A child positive for both malaria and a disease severity marker could be prioritized for urgent referral/admission and parenteral therapy. A child positive for malaria and negative for a disease severity marker could be managed conservatively, as an out-patient, with oral anti-malarial therapy. An RDT with a disease severity marker could facilitate an integrated community-based approach to fever syndromes and improve early recognition, risk stratification, and prompt treatment of severe malaria and other life-threatening infections.