Prognostic accuracy of the Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS) and the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) among hospitalized patients assessed by a rapid response team

MiVitals- xed Reality Interface for Monitoring: A HoloLens based prototype for healthcare practices

In this paper, we introduce MiVitals-a Mixed Reality (MR) system designed for healthcare professionals to monitor patients in wards or clinics. We detail the design, development, and evaluation of MiVitals, which integrates real-time vital signs from a biosensor-equipped wearable, Vitaliti TM. The system generates holographic visualizations, allowing healthcare professionals to interact with medical charts and information panels holographically. These visualizations display vital signs, trends, other significant physiological signals, and medical early warning scores in a comprehensive manner. We conducted a User Interface/User Experience (UI/UX) study focusing on novel holographic visualizations and interfaces that intuitively present medical information. This approach brings traditional bedside medical information to life in the real environment through non-contact 3D images, supporting rapid decision-making, vital pattern and anomaly detection, and enhancing clinicians' performance in wards. Additionally, we present findings from a usability study involving medical doctors and healthcare practitioners to assess MiVitals' efficacy. The System Usability Scale study yielded a score of 84, indicating that the MiVitals system has high usability.

Analysis of Missingness Scenarios for Observational Health Data

Despite the extensive literature on missing data theory and cautionary articles emphasizing the importance of realistic analysis for healthcare data, a critical gap persists in incorporating domain knowledge into the missing data methods. In this paper, we argue that the remedy is to identify the key scenarios that lead to data missingness and investigate their theoretical implications. Based on this proposal, we first introduce an analysis framework where we investigate how different observation agents, such as physicians, influence the data availability and then scrutinize each scenario with respect to the steps in the missing data analysis. We apply this framework to the case study of observational data in healthcare facilities. We identify ten fundamental missingness scenarios and show how they influence the identification step for missing data graphical models, inverse probability weighting estimation, and exponential tilting sensitivity analysis. To emphasize how domain-informed analysis can improve method reliability, we conduct simulation studies under the influence of various missingness scenarios. We compare the results of three common methods in medical data analysis: complete-case analysis, Missforest imputation, and inverse probability weighting estimation. The experiments are conducted for two objectives: variable mean estimation and classification accuracy. We advocate for our analysis approach as a reference for the observational health data analysis. Beyond that, we also posit that the proposed analysis framework is applicable to other medical domains.

Criteria to achieve safe antimicrobial intravenous-to-oral switch in hospitalised adult populations: a systematic rapid review

OBJECTIVES

This rapid review aimed to assess and collate intravenous-to-oral switch (IVOS) criteria from the literature to achieve safe and effective antimicrobial IVOS in the hospital inpatient adult population.

DESIGN

The rapid review follows the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement.

DATA SOURCES

OVID Embase and Medline databases.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Articles of adult populations published globally between 2017 and 2021 were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

An Excel spreadsheet was designed with specific column headings. IVOS criteria from UK hospital IVOS policies informed the framework synthesis.

RESULTS

IVOS criteria from 45/164 (27%) local IVOS policies were categorised into a five-section framework: (1) timing of IV antimicrobial review, (2) clinical signs and symptoms, (3) infection markers, (4) enteral route and (5) infection exclusions. The literature search identified 477 papers, of which 16 were included. The most common timing for review was 48-72 hours from initiation of intravenous antimicrobial (n=5, 30%). Nine studies (56%) stated clinical signs and symptoms must be improving. Temperature was the most frequently mentioned infection marker (n=14, 88%). Endocarditis had the highest mention as an infection exclusion (n=12, 75%). Overall, 33 IVOS criteria were identified to go forward into the Delphi process.

CONCLUSION

Through the rapid review, 33 IVOS criteria were collated and presented within five distinct and comprehensive sections. The literature highlighted the possibility of reviewing IVOS before 48-72 hours and of presenting heart rate, blood pressure and respiratory rate as a combination early warning score criterion. The criteria identified can serve as a starting point of IVOS criteria review for any institution globally, as no country or region limits were applied. Further research is required to achieve consensus on IVOS criteria from healthcare professionals that manage patients with infections.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022320343.

One-on-one comparison between qCSI and NEWS scores for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

To compare the predictive value of the quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 90-day mortality amongst COVID-19 patients.

METHODS

Multicenter retrospective cohort study conducted in adult patients transferred by ambulance to an emergency department (ED) with suspected COVID-19 infection subsequently confirmed by a SARS-CoV-2 test (polymerase chain reaction). We collected epidemiological data, clinical covariates (respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, heart rate, temperature, level of consciousness and use of supplemental oxygen) and hospital variables. The primary outcome was cumulative all-cause mortality during a 90-day follow-up, with mortality assessment monitoring time points at 1, 2, 7, 14, 30 and 90 days from ED attendance. Comparison of performances for 90-day mortality between both scores was carried out by univariate analysis.

RESULTS

From March to November 2020, we included 2,961 SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (median age 79 years, IQR 66-88), with 49.2% females. The qCSI score provided an AUC ranging from 0.769 (1-day mortality) to 0.749 (90-day mortality), whereas AUCs for NEWS ranging from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality. At all-time points studied, differences between both scores were statistically significant (p < .001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with SARS-CoV-2 can rapidly develop bilateral pneumonias with multiorgan disease; in these cases, in which an evacuation by the EMS is required, reliable scores for an early identification of patients with risk of clinical deterioration are critical. The NEWS score provides not only better prognostic results than those offered by qCSI at all the analyzed time points, but it is also better suited for COVID-19 patients.KEY MESSAGESThis work aims to determine whether NEWS is the best score for mortality risk assessment in patients with COVID-19.AUCs for NEWS ranged from 0.825 for 1-day mortality to 0.777 for 90-day mortality and were significantly higher than those for qCSI in these same outcomes.NEWS provides a better prognostic capacity than the qCSI score and allows for long-term (90 days) mortality risk assessment of COVID-19 patients.

Comparison of Nine Early Warning Scores for Identification of Short-Term Mortality in Acute Neurological Disease in Emergency Department

(1) Background: The aim was screening the performance of nine Early Warning Scores (EWS), to identify patients at high-risk of premature impairment and to detect intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, as well as to track the 2-, 7-, 14-, and 28-day mortality in a cohort of patients diagnosed with an acute neurological condition. (2) Methods: We conducted a prospective, longitudinal, observational study, calculating the EWS [Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), VitalPAC Early Warning Score (ViEWS), Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (MREMS), Early Warning Score (EWS), Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS), Standardised Early Warning Score (SEWS), WHO Prognostic Scored System (WPSS), and Rapid Acute Physiology Score (RAPS)] upon the arrival of patients to the emergency department. (3) Results: In all, 1160 patients were included: 808 patients were hospitalized, 199 cases (17%) required ICU care, and 6% of patients died (64 cases) within 2 days, which rose to 16% (183 cases) within 28 days. The highest area under the curve for predicting the need for ICU admissions was obtained by RAPS and MEWS. For predicting mortality, MREMS obtained the best scores for 2- and 28-day mortality. (4) Conclusions: This is the first study to explore whether several EWS accurately identify the risk of ICU admissions and mortality, at different time points, in patients with acute neurological disorders. Every score analyzed obtained good results, but it is suggested that the use of RAPS, MEWS, and MREMS should be preferred in the acute setting, for patients with neurological impairment.

A systematic review of the discrimination and absolute mortality predicted by the National Early Warning Scores according to different cut-off values and prediction windows

BACKGROUND

Although early warning scores were intended to simply identify patients in need of life-saving interventions, prediction has become their commonest metric. This review examined variation in the ability of the National Early Warning Scores (NEWS) in adult patients to predict absolute mortality at different times and cut-offs values.

METHOD

Following PRISMA guidelines, all studies reporting NEWS and NEWS2 providing enough information to fulfil the review's aims were included.

RESULTS

From 121 papers identified, the average area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) for mortality declined from 0.90 at 24-hours to 0.76 at 30-days. Studies with a low overall mortality had a higher AUC for 24-hour mortality, as did general ward patients compared to patients seen earlier in their treatment. 24-hour mortality increased from 1.8% for a NEWS ≥3 to 7.8% for NEWS ≥7. Although 24-hour mortality for NEWS <3 was only 0.07% these deaths accounted for 9% of all deaths within 24-hours; for NEWS <7 24-hour mortality was 0.23%, which accounted for 44% of all 24-hour deaths. Within 30-days of a NEWS recording 22% of all deaths occurred in patients with a NEWS <3, 52% in patients with a NEWS <5, and 75% in patient with a NEWS <7.

CONCLUSION

NEWS reliably identifies patients most and least likely to die within 24-hours, which is what it was designed to do. However, many patients identified to have a low risk of imminent death die within 30-days. NEWS mortality predictions beyond 24-hours are unreliable.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients screened by rapid response team who transferred to the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

The utilization of a rapid response team (RRT) has influenced the clinical outcomes of patients in the general ward. However, the characteristics of RRT-screened patients who are transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) are unknown. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate these factors.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study using patient data from a tertiary medical center in Republic of Korea between January 2016 and December 2017. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the factors associated with the risk of in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 1,096 patients were included: 389 patients were transferred to the ICU, and 707 patients stayed in the ward. Patients in the ICU group were more likely to be admitted for medical reasons, hepatobiliary disease, and high heart rate. More interventions were performed, hospital stays were longer, and the 28-day and in-hospital mortality rates were higher in the ICU group than in the ward group. Multivariate logistic regression analyses showed that risk factors affecting ICU admission were higher Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, National Early Warning Score (NEWS), platelet count, and lactate level. ICU transfer was not associated with in-hospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Among RRT-screened patients, those with higher SOFA score, NEWS, and lactate level were more likely to be transferred to the ICU. Therefore, these patients should be closely monitored and considered for ICU transfer.

The predictive power of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) 2, as compared to NEWS, among patients assessed by a Rapid response team: A prospective multi-centre trial

Aim

Early identification of patients at risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) is of vital importance, yet it remains a challenging task. We investigated the predictive power of National Early Warning Score (NEWS) 2, as compared to NEWS, among patients assessed by a Rapid response team (RRT).

Methods

Prospective, observational cohort study on 898 consecutive patients assessed by the RRTs in 26 Swedish hospitals. For each patient, NEWS and NEWS 2 scores were uniformly calculated by the study team. The associations of NEWS and NEWS 2 scores with unanticipated admissions to Intensive care unit (ICU), mortality and in-hospital cardiac arrests (IHCA) within 24 h, and the composite of these three events were investigated using logistic regression. The predictive power of NEWS and NEWS 2 was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curves.

Results

The prognostic accuracy of NEWS/NEWS 2 in predicting mortality was acceptable (AUROC 0.69/0.67). In discriminating the composite outcome and unanticipated ICU admission, both NEWS and NEWS 2 were relatively weak (AUROC 0.62/0.62 and AUROC 0.59/0.60 respectively); for IHCA the performance was poor. There were no differences between NEWS and NEWS 2 as to the predictive power.

Conclusion

The prognostic accuracy of NEWS 2 to predict mortality within 24 h was acceptable. However, the prognostic accuracy of NEWS 2 to predict IHCA was poor. NEWS and NEWS 2 performed similar in predicting the risk of SAEs but their performances were not sufficient for use as a risk stratification tool in patients assessed by a RRT.

Cross-cultural adaptation and validation of the Hamilton Early Warning Score for Brazil

ABSTRACT Objective Cross-culturally adapt and validate, for Portuguese, the Hamilton Early Warning Score to detect clinical deterioration in emergency services. Method Methodological study comprising the stages of translation, synthesis, back translation, expert committee (n=13), pre-test, submission, and analysis of the measurement properties in a sample of 188 patients. The Canadian Acute Scale Triage was compared with the Hamilton Early Warning Score. The Weighted Kappa Coefficient, Intraclass and Pearson Correlation Coefficient, Binary Logistic Regression and the Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve were used for data analysis. Results The Hamilton Early Warning Score showed excellent reliability, α=0.924 (p<0.001). The construct validity identified a strong and negative correlation r=-0.75 and the predictive one presented an odds ratio of 1.63, 95% CI (1.358-1.918) (p<0.001). Conclusion The Hamilton Early Warning Score in Portuguese is valid and reliable to recognize patients in a condition of clinical deterioration in emergency services.

Adaptação transcultural e validação da Hamilton Early Warning Score para o Brasil

RESUMO Objetivo Adaptar transculturalmente e validar, para a língua portuguesa, a Hamilton Early Warning Score para detectar a deterioração clínica em serviços de emergência. Método Estudo metodológico compreendendo as etapas de tradução, síntese, retrotradução, comitê de especialistas (n=13), pré-teste, envio e análise das propriedades de medidas em uma amostra composta por 188 pacientes. Comparou-se a Canadian Acute Scale Triage com a Hamilton Early Warning Score. Foram utilizados o Coeficiente Kappa Ponderado, Coeficiente de Correlação Intraclasse e de Pearson, Regressão Logística Binária e a Área Sob a Curva Receiver Operating Characteristic para a análise dos dados. Resultados A Hamilton Early Warning Score apresentou confiabilidade excelente, ou seja, α=0,924 (p<0,001). A validade de construto identificou correlação forte e negativa r=-0,75 e a preditiva apresentou um odds ratio de 1,63, IC 95% (1,358-1,918) (p<0,001). Conclusão A Hamilton Early Warning Score em português é válida e confiável para reconhecer pacientes em condição de deterioração clínica em serviços de emergência.

Outcomes of second-tier rapid response activations in a tertiary referral hospital: A prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

A second-tier rapid response team (RRT) is activated for patients who do not respond to first-tier measures. The premise of a tiered response is that first-tier responses by a ward team may identify and correct early states of deterioration or establish goals of care, thereby reducing unnecessary escalation of care to the RRT. Currently, utilisation and outcomes of tiered RRTs remain poorly described.

METHODS

A prospective observational study of adult patients (age ≥18 years) who required RRT activations was conducted from February 2018 to December 2019.

RESULTS

There were 951 consecutive RRT activations from 869 patients and 76.0% patients had a National Early Warning Score (NEWS) ≥5 at the time of RRT activation. The majority (79.8%) of patients required RRT interventions that included endotracheal intubation (12.7%), point-of-care ultrasound (17.0%), discussing goals of care (14.7%) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (24.2%). Approximately 1 in 3 (36.6%) patients died during hospitalisation or within 30 days of RRT activation. In multivariate analysis, age ≥65 years, NEWS ≥7, ICU admission, longer hospitalisation days at RRT activation, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance scores ≥3 (OR [odds ratio] 2.24, 95% CI [confidence interval] 1.45-3.46), metastatic cancer (OR 2.64, 95% CI 1.71-4.08) and haematological cancer (OR 2.78, 95% CI 1.84-4.19) were independently associated with mortality.

CONCLUSION

Critical care interventions and escalation of care are common with second-tier RRTs. This supports the need for dedicated teams with specialised critical care services. Poor functional status, metastatic and haematological cancer are significantly associated with mortality, independent of age, NEWS and ICU admission. These factors should be considered during triage and goals of care discussion.

Validation of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS)-2 for adults in the emergency department in a tertiary-level clinic in Colombia: Cohort study

The National Early Warning Score (NEWS)-2 is an early warning scale that is used in emergency departments to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and to help establish rapid and timely management. The objective of this study was to determine the validity and prediction of mortality using the NEWS2 scale for adults in the emergency department of a tertiary clinic in Colombia.A prospective observational study was conducted between August 2018 and June 2019 at the Universidad de La Sabana Clinic.The nursing staff in the triage classified the patients admitted to the emergency room according to Emergency Severity Index and NEWS2. Demographic data, physiological variables, admission diagnosis, mortality outcome, and comorbidities were extracted.Three thousand nine hundred eighty-six patients were included in the study. Ninety-two (2%) patients required intensive care unit management, with a mean NEWS2 score of 7. A total of 158 patients died in hospital, of which 63 were women (40%). Of these 65 patients required intensive care unit management. The receiver operating characteristic curve for NEWS2 had an area of 0.90 (CI 95%: 0.87-0.92). A classification and score equivalency analysis was performed between triage and the NEWS2 scale in terms of mortality. Of the patients classified as triage I, 32.3% died, and those who obtained a NEWS2 score greater than or equal to 10 had a mortality of 38.6%.Among our population, NEWS2 was not inferior in its area under the receiver operating characteristic curve when predicting mortality than triage, and the cutoff point for NEWS2 to predict in-hospital mortality was higher.

National Early Warning Score Does Not Accurately Predict Mortality for Patients With Infection Outside the Intensive Care Unit: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: The prognostic value of the national early warning score (NEWS) in patients with infections remains controversial. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic accuracy of NEWS for prediction of in-hospital mortality in patients with infections outside the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for related articles from January 2012 to April 2021. Sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios were pooled by using the bivariate random-effects model. Overall prognostic performance was summarized by using the area under the curve (AUC). We performed subgroup analyses to assess the prognostic accuracy of NEWS in selected populations. Results: A total of 21 studies with 107,008 participants were included. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS were 0.71 and 0.60. The pooled AUC of NEWS was 0.70, which was similar to quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA, AUC: 0.70) and better than systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS, AUC: 0.60). However, the sensitivity (0.55) and AUC (0.63) of NEWS were poor in elder patients. The NEWS of 5 was more sensitive, which was a better threshold for activating urgent assessment and treatment. Conclusions: The NEWS had good diagnostic accuracy for early prediction of mortality in patients with infections outside the ICU, and the sensitivity and specificity were more moderate when compared with qSOFA and SIRS. Insufficient sensitivity and poor performance in the elder population may have limitations as an early warning score for adverse outcomes. NEWS should be used for continuous monitoring rather than a single time point predictive tool.

Investigation into the predictive capability for mortality and the trigger points of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) in emergency department patients

INTRODUCTION

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) is widely used to monitor and trigger assessment throughout a patient's hospital journey. Since the development and role out of NEWS2, its ability to predict mortality has been assessed in several settings, although to date not within an undifferentiated ED population.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective observational study of all adult ED attendees at two EDs in Northern England, between March and November 2019. Multilevel multiple logistic regression analyses were conducted on patient episode data to assess the relationship between mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days from attendances; and maximum NEWS2, adjusting for age, sex, arrival mode and triage priority.

RESULTS

Data were collected from 91 871 valid patient episodes associated with 64 760 patients. NEWS2 was a significant predictor of mortality at 2 days (OR 1.75; 95% CI 1.58 to 1.93); at 7 days (OR 1.69; 95% CI 1.59 to 1.80); at 30 days (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.52 to 1.64). For the analyses of categorised NEWS2, NEWS2 of 2-20 was significantly associated with mortality at 2, 7 and 30 days compared with none assigned: OR 3.54 (95% CI 2.15 to 5.85) at 2 days; OR 6.05 (95% CI 3.92 to 9.34) at 7 days; OR 12.4 (95% CI 7.91 to 19.3) at 30 days. Increasing age, male sex, arrival by ambulance and higher triage categories were also associated with significantly increased mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.963, 0.946 and 0.915, respectively, were recorded for mortality outcomes, with optimum likelihood ratios associated with a trigger of 4 NEWS2 points.

CONCLUSIONS

NEWS2 is an effective predictor of mortality for patients presenting to the ED. Findings suggest that maximum NEWS2 of 4 and over may be the best trigger point for escalation of treatment. Findings also suggest a NEWS2 of 0-1 can identify a very low-risk group within the ED.

National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) better predicts critical Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) illness than COVID-GRAM, a multi-centre study

Purpose

Clinical scores to rapidly assess the severity illness of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) could be considered of help for clinicians. Recently, a specific score (named COVID-GRAM) for severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, based on a nationwide Chinese cohort, has been proposed. We routinely applied the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) to predict critical COVID-19. Aim of this study is to compare NEWS2 and COVID-GRAM score.

Methods

We retrospectively analysed data of 121 COVID-19 patients admitted in two Clinics of Infectious Diseases in the Umbria region, Italy. The primary outcome was critical COVID-19 illness defined as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death. Accuracy of the scores was evaluated with the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Differences between scores were confirmed used Hanley–McNeil test.

Results

The NEWS2 AUROC curve measured 0.87 (standard error, SE 0.03; 95% CI 0.80–0.93; p < 0.0001). The COVID-GRAM score AUROC curve measured 0.77 (SE 0.04; 95% CI 0.68–0.85; p < 0.0001). Hanley–McNeil test showed that NEWS2 better predicted severe COVID-19 (Z = 2.03).

Conclusions

The NEWS2 showed superior accuracy to COVID-GRAM score for prediction of critical COVID-19 illness.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s15010-021-01620-x.

Can capillary lactate improve early warning scores in emergency department? An observational, prospective, multicentre study

AIMS

To determine the prognostic usefulness of the National Early Warning Score-2 (NEWS2) and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA) scores, in isolation and combined with capillary lactate (CL), using the new NEWS2-L and qSOFA-L scores to predict the 30-day mortality risk.

METHODS

Prospective, multicentre and observational study in patients across four EDs. We collected sets of vital signs and CL and subsequently calculated NEWS2, qSOFA, NEWS2-L and qSOFA-L scores when patients arrived at the ED. The main outcome measure was all-cause mortality 30 days from the index event.

RESULTS

A total of 941 patients were included. Thirty-six patients (3.8%) died within 30 days of the index event. A high CL level has not been linked to a higher mortality. The NEWS2 presented AUROC of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.62-0.81), qSOFA of 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.77) (P < .001 in both cases) and CL 0.55 (95% CI: 0.42-0.65; P = .229) to predict 30-day mortality. The addition of CL to the scores analysed does not improve the results of the scores used in isolation.

CONCLUSION

NEWS2 and qSOFA scores are a very useful tool for assessing the status of patients who come to the ED in general for all types of patients in triage categories II and III and for detecting the 30-day mortality risk. CL determined systematically in the ED does not seem to provide information on the prognosis of the patients.

Post-operative alarm signs in the rapid response system and hospital mortality after non-cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND

A variety of rapid response systems (RRSs) based on the systematic assessment of vital signs and laboratory tests have been developed to reduce hospital mortality through the early detection of alarm signs, while deterioration may still be reversible. This study aimed to determine the association between alarm signs and post-operative hospital mortality during post-operative days (POD) 0-3 in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

METHODS

This retrospective observational study used data from the registry of a single tertiary academic hospital. The study population included patients who were ≥18 years old, admitted between 1 January 2013 and 30 June 2018 for non-cardiac surgery, and subsequently transferred to the general ward.

RESULTS

A total of 116 329 patients were included in the analysis. Among them, 10 099 patients (8.7%) showed positive alarm criteria and triggered the RRS in the post-operative ward during POD 0-3. In the multivariate logistic regression model, PaO₂ <55 mm Hg, SpO₂ <90%, and total CO₂ <15 mmol/L were associated with a 3.57-, 3.46-, and 12.53-fold increase in post-operative hospital mortality, respectively. Moreover, when compared to the no alarm signs group, patients with 1, 2, 3, and ≥4 alarm signs showed a 2.79-, 2.76-, 6.54-, and 20.02-fold increase in hospital mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Increased post-operative hospital mortality was found to be associated with alarm signs detected by the RRS during POD 0-3. The post-operative alarm signs detected by the RRS may therefore be useful in determining high-risk patients who require medical interventions in the surgical ward.

The Value of Prehospital Early Warning Scores to Predict in - Hospital Clinical Deterioration: A Multicenter, Observational Base-Ambulance Study

OBJECTIVES

Early warning scores are clinical tools capable of identifying prehospital patients with high risk of deterioration. We sought here to contrast the validity of seven early warning scores in the prehospital setting and specifically, to evaluate the predictive value of each score to determine early deterioration-risk during the hospital stay, including mortality at one, two, three and seven- days since the index event. Methods: A prospective multicenter observational based-ambulance study of patients treated by six advanced life support emergency services and transferred to five Spanish hospitals between October 1, 2018 and December 31, 2019. We collected demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables. Seven risk score were constructed based on the analysis of prehospital variables associated with death within one, two, three and seven days since the index event. The area under the receiver operating characteristics was used to determine the discriminant validity of each early warning score. Results: A total of 3,273 participants with acute diseases were accurately linked. The median age was 69 years (IQR, 54-81 years), 1,348 (41.1%) were females. The overall mortality rate for patients in the study cohort ranged from 3.5% for first-day mortality (114 cases), to 7% for seven-day mortality (228 cases). The scores with the best performances for one-day mortality were Vitalpac Early Warning Score with an area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of 0.873 (95% CI: 0.81-0.9), for two-day mortality, Triage Early Warning Score with an AUROC of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.83-0.9), for three and seven-days mortality the Modified Rapid Emergency Medicine Score with an AUROC of 0.857 (0.82-0.89) and 0.833 (95% CI: 0.8-0.86). In general, there were no significant differences between the scores analyzed. Conclusions: All the analyzed scores have a good predictive capacity for early mortality, and no statistically significant differences between them were found. The National Early Warning Score 2, at the clinical level, has certain advantages. Early warning scores are clinical tools that can help in the complex decision-making processes during critical moments, so their use should be generalized in all emergency medical services.

Predictive Value of 5 Early Warning Scores for Critical COVID-19 Patients

Objectives:

A simple evaluation tool for patients with novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could assist the physicians to triage COVID-19 patients effectively and rapidly. This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of 5 early warning scores based on the admission data of critical COVID-19 patients.

Methods:

Overall, medical records of 319 COVID-19 patients were included in the study. Demographic and clinical characteristics on admission were used for calculating the Standardized Early Warning Score (SEWS), National Early Warning Score (NEWS), National Early Warning Score2 (NEWS2), Hamilton Early Warning Score (HEWS), and Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS). Data on the outcomes (survival or death) were collected for each case and extracted for overall and subgroup analysis. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed.

Results:

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the SEWS, NEWS, NEWS2, HEWS, and MEWS in predicting mortality were 0.841 (95% CI: 0.765-0.916), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.727-0.891), 0.809 (95% CI: 0.727-0.891), 0.821 (95% CI: 0.748-0.895), and 0.670 (95% CI: 0.573-0.767), respectively.

Conclusions:

SEWS, NEWS, NEWS2, and HEWS demonstrated moderate discriminatory power and, therefore, offer potential utility as prognostic tools for screening severely ill COVID-19 patients. However, MEWS is not a good prognostic predictor for COVID-19.

NEWS2 versus a single-parameter system to identify critically ill medical patients in the emergency department

AIM

To test National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) versus a single-parameter system to identify critically ill general medical patients in the emergency department (ED), by 1) testing NEWS2s prediction of and association with primary outcome 'mortality' (hospital or 30 day) and secondary outcomes 'intensive care unit (ICU) admission' and 'critical care in ED' and 2) comparing this for different NEWS2 cut-offs and the single-parameter system in use.

METHODS

Register-data on adult triage 1 and 2 patients with complete NEWS2 from 2015 and 2016 were retrieved. Prediction was assessed using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Associations were analyzed using multiple logistic regression.

RESULTS

1586 patients were included. NEWS2 showed poor prediction of 'mortality' (AUC 0.686, CI 0.633-0.739) and adequate prediction of 'ICU admission' (AUC 0.716, CI 0.690-0.742) and 'critical care in ED' (AUC 0.756, CI 0.732-0.780). It was strongly associated with all outcomes (all p<0.001). All NEWS2 cut-offs and the single-parameter system showed poor prediction of all outcomes (all AUCs <0.7). The single-parameter system had the strongest association with 'mortality' (OR 1.688, CI 1.052-2.708, p<0.05) and 'critical care in ED' (OR 3.267, CI 2.490-4.286, p<0.001). NEWS2 > 4 had the strongest association with 'ICU admission' (OR 2.339, CI 1.742-3.141, p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

For identification in order to trigger a response in the ED, outcomes closest in time seem most clinically relevant. As such, the single-parameter system had acceptable performance. NEWS2 > 4 should be considered as an additional trigger due to its association with ICU admission.

Does this patient have COVID-19? A practical guide for the internist

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is currently causing a pandemic and will likely persist in endemic form in the foreseeable future. Physicians need to correctly approach this new disease, often representing a challenge in terms of differential diagnosis. Although COVID-19 lacks specific signs and symptoms, we believe internists should develop specific skills to recognize the disease, learning its 'semeiotic'. In this review article, we summarize the key clinical features that may guide in differentiating a COVID-19 case, requiring specific testing, from upper respiratory and/or influenza-like illnesses of other aetiology. We consider two different clinical settings, where availability of the different diagnostic strategies differs widely: outpatient and inpatient. Our reasoning highlights how challenging a balanced approach to a patient with fever and flu-like symptoms can be. At present, clinical workup of COVID-19 remains a hard task to accomplish. However, knowledge of the natural history of the disease may aid the internist in putting common and unspecific symptoms into the correct clinical context.

Predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection

Background: From January 2020, Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread all over the world. An early assessment of illness severity is important for the stratification of patients. We analysed the predictive value of National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for intensive care unit admission (ICU) in patients with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome- Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.Methods: Data of 71 patients with SARS-CoV-2 admitted from 1 March to 20 April 2020, to the Clinic of Infectious Diseases of Perugia Hospital, Italy, were retrospectively reviewed. NEWS2 at hospital admission, demographic, comorbidity and clinical data were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to establish the correlation between each variable and ICU admission.Results: Among 68 patients included in the analysis, 27 were admitted to ICU. NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor of ICU admission as shown by an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis of 0.90 (standard error 0.04; 95% confidence interval 0.82-0.97). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, NEWS2 was significantly related to ICU admission using thresholds of 5 and 7. No other clinical variables included in the model were significantly correlated with ICU admission.A NEWS2 threshold of 5 had higher sensitivity than a threshold of 7 (89% and 63%). Higher specificity, positive likelihood ratio and positive predictive value were found using a threshold of 7 than a threshold of 5.Conclusions: NEWS2 at hospital admission was a good predictor for ICU admission. Patients with severe COVID-19 were correctly and rapidly stratified.

Predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score and the National Early Warning Score in general ward patients who activated the medical emergency team

Background

The current early warning scores may be insufficient for medical emergency teams (METs) to use in assessing the severity and the prognosis of activated patients. We evaluated the predictive powers of the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) and the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) for 28-day mortality and to analyze predictors of 28-day mortality in general ward patients who activate the MET.

Methods

Adult general ward inpatients who activated the MET in a tertiary referral teaching hospital between March 2009 and December 2016 were included. The demographic and clinical characteristics and physiologic parameters at the time of MET activation were collected, and MEWS and NEWS were calculated.

Results

A total of 6,729 MET activation events were analyzed. Patients who died within 28 days were younger (mean age 60 vs 62 years), were more likely to have malignancy (72% vs 53%), were more likely to be admitted to the medical department rather than the surgical department (93% vs 80%), had longer intervals from admission to MET activation (median, 7 vs 5 days), and were less likely to activate the MET during nighttime hours (5 PM to 8 AM) (61% vs 66%) compared with those who did not die within 28 days (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of MEWS and NEWS for 28-day mortality were 0.58 (95% CI, 0.56–0.59) and 0.60 (95% CI, 0.59–0.62), which were inferior to that of the logistics regression model (0.73; 95% CI, 0.72–0.74; P < 0.001 for both comparisons).

Conclusions

Both the MEWS and NEWS had poor predictive powers for 28-day mortality in patients who activated the MET. A new scoring system is needed to stratify the severity and prognosis of patients who activated the MET.

A rapid response team is associated with reduced overall hospital mortality in a Chinese tertiary hospital: a 9-year cohort study

Background

Although the evidence for its effectiveness remains uncertainty, rapid response systems are implemented across many hospitals across the world. Increasingly, hospitals in China have recently started to adopt a medical emergency or rapid response team (RRT). Hence, we aimed to determine whether the implementation of an RRT in Chinese hospitals also improved outcomes.

Methods

Our hospital is a Joint Commission International (JCI) accredited, tertiary teaching hospital with 1,200 beds. We conducted a retrospective cohort study comparing 60 months after the implementation of the RRT (January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2017) and 36 months before implementation (January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2011). The outcomes included the overall hospital mortality and incidence of codes.

Results

We analyzed 144,673 non-obstetric hospital admissions and 1,269,621 patient days in the control period and 348,687 non-obstetric hospital admissions and 2,361,913 patient days after the RRT implementation. The RRT was activated 834 times (2.39 calls per 1,000 patients and 0.35 call per 1,000 patient-days). There was no difference in the code rate (0.23 vs. 0.17 per 1,000 patient days, P=0.379) between the two periods. Although the hospital mortality had remained stable around 3.0 per 1,000 patients from 2009 to 2011, there was a significant 40% decrease of overall hospital mortality from 2.95 to 1.77 per 1,000 non-obstetric patients after the implementation of RRT (P=0.001), and the annual mortality showed a consistent decrease (P=0.037 for the trend). Moreover, the increase of RRT activations was significantly correlated with the decrease of hospital mortality (P=0.025).

Conclusions

RRT implementation was associated with reduced overall hospital mortality in a Chinese tertiary hospital.

Scores for sepsis detection and risk stratification - construction of a novel score using a statistical approach and validation of RETTS

BACKGROUND

To allow early identification of patients at risk of sepsis in the emergency department (ED), a variety of risk stratification scores and/or triage systems are used. The first aim of this study was to develop a risk stratification score for sepsis based upon vital signs and biomarkers using a statistical approach. Second, we aimed to validate the Rapid Emergency Triage and Treatment System (RETTS) for sepsis. RETTS combines vital signs with symptoms for risk stratification.

METHODS

We retrospectively analysed data from two prospective, observational, multicentre cohorts of patients from studies of biomarkers in ED. A candidate risk stratification score called Sepsis Heparin-binding protein-based Early Warning Score (SHEWS) was constructed using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selector Operator (LASSO) method. SHEWS and RETTS were compared to National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) for infection-related organ dysfunction, intensive care or death within the first 72h after admission (i.e. sepsis).

RESULTS

506 patients with a diagnosed infection constituted cohort A, in which SHEWS was derived and RETTS was validated. 435 patients constituted cohort B of whom 184 had a diagnosed infection where both scores were validated. In both cohorts (A and B), AUC for infection-related organ dysfunction, intensive care or death was higher for NEWS2, 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.63-0.74), than RETTS, 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) and 0.55 (95% CI 0.49-0.60), p = 0.05 and p <0.01, respectively. SHEWS had the highest AUC, 0.73 (95% CI 0.68-0.79) p = 0.32 in cohort B.

CONCLUSIONS

Even with a statistical approach, we could not construct better risk stratification scores for sepsis than NEWS2. RETTS was inferior to NEWS2 for screening for sepsis.

Evaluation of a new respiratory monitoring tool "Early Warning ScoreO2" for patients admitted at the emergency department with dyspnea

BACKGROUND

Many scores derived from Early Warning Scores have been developed to detect patients at risk of poor outcome. Few of these scores incorporate the oxygen flow rate while this is a major marker in patients with respiratory complaint. We developed and evaluated a new automatable monitoring tool (Early Warning Score O₂: EWS.O₂) that incorporates cardio-respiratory parameters (Respiratory rate, Heart rate, SpO₂, and FiO₂ derived from oxygen flow rate), aiming to achieve early detection of poor outcome among patients with dyspnea.

METHODS

All patients presenting at an emergency department for dyspnea from June 2011 to June 2018 with available initial value (nurse triage) of respiratory parameters were included. Our primary endpoint was a composite criterion including the use of non-invasive ventilation, ICU admission and death. The Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) of the SpO₂/FiO₂ index, NEWS, NEWS2, and the EWS.O₂ were compared, including in subgroup analysis by final diagnosis or oxygen supplementation.

RESULTS

Among the 1729 patients retrieved, the composite outcome was observed in 288 (16.7%). The EWS.O₂ displayed better or comparable predictive accuracy at triage (AUROC: 0.704, 95% CI 0.672-0.736) compared to NEWS (0.662, p < 0.01), NEWS2 (0.672, p = 0.02) and SpO₂/FiO₂ (0.695, p = 0.46).

CONCLUSIONS

This new ScoreO₂ is equivalent or superior to common early warning scores and index to predict poor outcome at first medical contact. This score may be automatically and continuously recorded with new closed-loop devices to titrate oxygen flow. Further prospective studies will allow to verify its accuracy at multiple time points of the patient's journey.

Gram-negative bloodstream infections and sepsis: risk factors, screening tools and surveillance

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

Incidence of gram-negative bloodstream infections (GNBSIs) and sepsis are rising in the UK. Healthcare-associated risk factors have been identified that increase the risk of infection and associated mortality. Current research is focused on identifying high-risk patients and improving the methods used for surveillance.

SOURCES OF DATA

Comprehensive literature search of the topic area using PubMed (Medline). Government, professional and societal publications were also reviewed.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

A range of healthcare-associated risk factors independently associate with the risk of GNBSIs and sepsis.

AREAS OF CONTROVERSY

There are calls to move away from using simple comorbidity scores to predict the risk of sepsis-associated mortality, instead more advanced multimorbidity models should be considered.

GROWING POINTS AND AREAS FOR DEVELOPING RESEARCH

Advanced risk models should be created and evaluated for their ability to predict sepsis-associated mortality. Investigations into the accuracy of NEWS2 to predict sepsis-associated mortality are required.