Design of trials for interrupting the transmission of endemic pathogens

Masks and respirators for prevention of respiratory infections: a state of the science review

SUMMARYThis narrative review and meta-analysis summarizes a broad evidence base on the benefits-and also the practicalities, disbenefits, harms and personal, sociocultural and environmental impacts-of masks and masking. Our synthesis of evidence from over 100 published reviews and selected primary studies, including re-analyzing contested meta-analyses of key clinical trials, produced seven key findings. First, there is strong and consistent evidence for airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Second, masks are, if correctly and consistently worn, effective in reducing transmission of respiratory diseases and show a dose-response effect. Third, respirators are significantly more effective than medical or cloth masks. Fourth, mask mandates are, overall, effective in reducing community transmission of respiratory pathogens. Fifth, masks are important sociocultural symbols; non-adherence to masking is sometimes linked to political and ideological beliefs and to widely circulated mis- or disinformation. Sixth, while there is much evidence that masks are not generally harmful to the general population, masking may be relatively contraindicated in individuals with certain medical conditions, who may require exemption. Furthermore, certain groups (notably D/deaf people) are disadvantaged when others are masked. Finally, there are risks to the environment from single-use masks and respirators. We propose an agenda for future research, including improved characterization of the situations in which masking should be recommended or mandated; attention to comfort and acceptability; generalized and disability-focused communication support in settings where masks are worn; and development and testing of novel materials and designs for improved filtration, breathability, and environmental impact.

Estimating intervention effectiveness in trials of malaria interventions with contamination

BACKGROUND

In cluster randomized trials (CRTs) or stepped wedge cluster randomized trials (SWCRTs) of malaria interventions, mosquito movement leads to contamination between trial arms unless buffer zones separate the clusters. Contamination can be accounted for in the analysis, yielding an estimate of the contamination range, the distance over which contamination measurably biases the effectiveness.

METHODS

A previously described analysis for CRTs is extended to SWCRTs and estimates of effectiveness are provided as a function of intervention coverage. The methods are applied to two SWCRTs of malaria interventions, the SolarMal trial on the impact of mass trapping of mosquitoes with odor-baited traps and the AvecNet trial on the effect of adding pyriproxyfen to long-lasting insecticidal nets.

RESULTS

For the SolarMal trial, the contamination range was estimated to be 146 m ([Formula: see text] credible interval [Formula: see text] km), together with a [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] credible interval [Formula: see text]) reduction of Plasmodium infection, compared to the [Formula: see text] reduction estimated without accounting for contamination. The estimated effectiveness had an approximately linear relationship with coverage. For the AvecNet trial, estimated contamination effects were minimal, with insufficient data from the cluster boundary regions to estimate the effectiveness as a function of coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

The contamination range in these trials of malaria interventions is much less than the distances Anopheles mosquitoes can fly. An appropriate analysis makes buffer zones unnecessary, enabling the design of more cost-efficient trials. Estimation of the contamination range requires information from the cluster boundary regions and trials should be designed to collect this.

Analysis of contamination in cluster randomized trials of malaria interventions

Background

In cluster randomized trials (CRTs) of interventions against malaria, mosquito movement between households ultimately leads to contamination between intervention and control arms, unless they are separated by wide buffer zones.

Methods

This paper proposes a method for adjusting estimates of intervention effectiveness for contamination and for estimating a contamination range between intervention arms, the distance over which contamination measurably biases the estimate of effectiveness. A sigmoid function is fitted to malaria prevalence or incidence data as a function of the distance of households to the intervention boundary, stratified by intervention status and including a random effect for the clustering. The method is evaluated in a simulation study, corresponding to a range of rural settings with varying intervention effectiveness and contamination range, and applied to a CRT of insecticide treated nets in Ghana.

Results

The simulations indicate that the method leads to approximately unbiased estimates of effectiveness. Precision decreases with increasing mosquito movement, but the contamination range is much smaller than the maximum distance traveled by mosquitoes. For the method to provide precise and approximately unbiased estimates, at least 50% of the households should be at distances greater than the estimated contamination range from the discordant intervention arm.

Conclusions

A sigmoid approach provides an appropriate analysis for a CRT in the presence of contamination. Outcome data from boundary zones should not be discarded but used to provide estimates of the contamination range. This gives an alternative to “fried egg” designs, which use large clusters (increasing costs) and exclude buffer zones to avoid bias.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s13063-021-05543-8).

Spatial Effects of Permethrin-Impregnated Bed Nets on Child Mortality: 26 Years on, a Spatial Reanalysis of a Cluster Randomized Trial

In addition to the direct effect of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs), there has been evidence for spatial indirect effects. Spatial analyses in cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are rare, but a large-scale CRT from 1993 was one of the first to conduct a spatial analysis of ITNs in CRTs. We revisit these data by applying a broader range of contemporary spatial methods to further explore spatial spillover. We conducted three analyses: 1) exploratory spatial analysis, considering spatial patterns and spillover in the data; 2) spatial modeling, estimating the intervention effect considering spatial effects; and 3) analysis of distance-based spillover and interaction with the intervention, characterizing the functional distance over which the spillover effect was present. There were consistent indications of spatial patterns from the exploratory analysis. Bed nets were associated with a 17% reduction in all-cause mortality for children aged 6-59 months, and the intervention estimate remained robust when allowing for the spatial structure of the data. There was strong evidence of a spatial spillover effect: for every additional 100 m that a control household was from an intervention household (and vice versa), the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) increased by 1.7% (SMR 1.017, 95% credible interval 1.006-1.026). Despite evidence of a spatial spillover effect, the conclusions of the trial remain unaffected by spatial model specifications. Use of ITNs was clearly beneficial for individuals, and there was compelling evidence that they provide an indirect benefit to individuals living nearby. This article demonstrates the extra utility that spatial methods can provide when analyzing a CRT.

Simulations for designing and interpreting intervention trials in infectious diseases

BACKGROUND

Interventions in infectious diseases can have both direct effects on individuals who receive the intervention as well as indirect effects in the population. In addition, intervention combinations can have complex interactions at the population level, which are often difficult to adequately assess with standard study designs and analytical methods.

DISCUSSION

Herein, we urge the adoption of a new paradigm for the design and interpretation of intervention trials in infectious diseases, particularly with regard to emerging infectious diseases, one that more accurately reflects the dynamics of the transmission process. In an increasingly complex world, simulations can explicitly represent transmission dynamics, which are critical for proper trial design and interpretation. Certain ethical aspects of a trial can also be quantified using simulations. Further, after a trial has been conducted, simulations can be used to explore the possible explanations for the observed effects.

CONCLUSION

Much is to be gained through a multidisciplinary approach that builds collaborations among experts in infectious disease dynamics, epidemiology, statistical science, economics, simulation methods, and the conduct of clinical trials.

The effect of mass mosquito trapping on malaria transmission and disease burden (SolarMal): a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Odour baits can attract host-seeking Anopheles mosquitoes indoors and outdoors. We assessed the effects of mass deployment of odour-baited traps on malaria transmission and disease burden.

METHODS

We installed solar-powered odour-baited mosquito trapping systems (SMoTS) to households on Rusinga Island, Lake Victoria, western Kenya (mean population 24 879), in a stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial. All residents in the completed health and demographic surveillance system were eligible to participate. We used the travelling salesman algorithm to assign all households to a cluster (50 or 51 geographically contiguous households); nine contiguous clusters formed a metacluster. Initially, no cluster had SMoTS (non-intervened). During the course of the intervention roll-out SMoTS were gradually installed cluster by cluster until all clusters had SMoTS installed (intervened). We generated 27 cluster randomisations, with the cluster as unit of randomisation, to establish the order to install the traps in the clusters until all had a SMoTS installed. Field workers and participants were not masked to group allocation. The primary outcome of clinical malaria was monitored through repeated household visits covering the entire population, once before roll-out (baseline) and five times throughout the 2-year roll-out. We measured clinical malaria as fever plus a positive result with a rapid diagnostic test. The SolarMal project was registered on the Dutch Trial Register (NTR 3496).

FINDINGS

We enrolled 34 041 participants between April 25, 2012, and March 23, 2015, to 81 clusters and nine metaclusters. 4358 households were provided with SMoTS during roll-out between June 3, 2013, and May 16, 2015. 23 clinical malaria episodes were recorded in intervened clusters and 33 episodes in non-intervened clusters (adjusted effectiveness 40·8% [95% CI -172·8 to 87·1], p=0·5) during the roll-out. Malaria prevalence measured by rapid diagnostic test was 29·8% (95% CI 20·9-38·0) lower in SMoTS clusters (prevalence 23·7%; 1552 of 6550 people) than in non-intervened clusters (prevalence 34·5%; 2002 of 5795 people).

INTERPRETATION

The unexpectedly low clinical incidence of malaria during roll-out led to an imprecise estimate of effectiveness from the clinical incidence data. The substantial effect on malaria prevalence is explained by reduction in densities of Anopheles funestus. Odour-baited traps might be an effective malaria intervention.

FUNDING

COmON Foundation.

Mass mosquito trapping for malaria control in western Kenya: study protocol for a stepped wedge cluster-randomised trial

Background

Increasing levels of insecticide resistance as well as outdoor, residual transmission of malaria threaten the efficacy of existing vector control tools used against malaria mosquitoes. The development of odour-baited mosquito traps has led to the possibility of controlling malaria through mass trapping of malaria vectors. Through daily removal trapping against a background of continued bed net use it is anticipated that vector populations could be suppressed to a level where continued transmission of malaria will no longer be possible.

Methods/design

A stepped wedge cluster-randomised trial design was used for the implementation of mass mosquito trapping on Rusinga Island, western Kenya (the SolarMal project). Over the course of 2 years (2013–2015) all households on the island were provided with a solar-powered mosquito trapping system. A continuous health and demographic surveillance system combined with parasitological surveys three times a year, successive rounds of mosquito monitoring and regular sociological studies allowed measurement of intervention outcomes before, during and at completion of the rollout of traps. Data collection continued after achieving mass coverage with traps in order to estimate the longer term effectiveness of this novel intervention. Solar energy was exploited to provide electric light and mobile phone charging for each household, and the impacts of these immediate tangible benefits upon acceptability of and adherence to the use of the intervention are being measured.

Discussion

This study will be the first to evaluate whether the principle of solar-powered mass mosquito trapping could be an effective tool for elimination of malaria. If proven to be effective, this novel approach to malaria control would be a valuable addition to the existing strategies of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets and case management. Sociological studies provide a knowledge base for understanding the usage of this novel tool.

Trial registration

Trialregister.nl: NTR3496 – SolarMal. Registered on 20 June 2012.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1469-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.