Mathematical modelling of lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes in India: required duration of mass drug administration and post-treatment level of infection indicators

Heterogeneity in elimination efforts could increase the risk of resurgence of lymphatic filariasis in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Progress in lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination is spatially heterogeneous in many endemic countries, which may lead to resurgence in areas that have achieved elimination. Understanding the drivers and consequences of such heterogeneity could help inform strategies to reach global LF elimination goals by 2030. This study assesses whether differences in age-specific compliance with mass drug administration (MDA) could explain LF prevalence patterns in southeastern Madagascar and explores how spatial heterogeneity in prevalence and age-specific MDA compliance may affect the risk of LF resurgence after transmission interruption.

METHODOLOGY

We used LYMFASIM model with parameters in line with the context of southeastern Madagascar and explored a wide range of scenarios with different MDA compliance for adults and children (40-100%) to estimate the proportion of elimination, non-elimination and resurgence events associated with each scenario. Finally, we evaluated the risk of resurgence associated with different levels of migration (2-6%) from surrounding districts combined with varying levels of LF microfilaria (mf) prevalence (0-24%) during that same study period.

RESULTS

Differences in MDA compliance between adults and children better explained the observed heterogeneity in LF prevalence for these age groups than differences in exposure alone. The risk of resurgence associated with differences in MDA compliance scenarios ranged from 0 to 19% and was highest when compliance was high for children (e.g. 90%) and low for adults (e.g. 50%). The risk of resurgence associated with migration was generally higher, exceeding 60% risk for all the migration levels explored (2-6% per year) when mf prevalence in the source districts was between 9% and 20%.

CONCLUSION

Gaps in the implementation of LF elimination programme can increase the risk of resurgence and undermine elimination efforts. In Madagascar, districts that have not attained elimination pose a significant risk for those that have achieved it. More research is needed to help guide LF elimination programme on the optimal strategies for surveillance and control that maximize the chances to sustain elimination and avoid resurgence.

A dynamic game of lymphatic filariasis prevention by voluntary use of insecticide treated nets

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) has been targeted for elimination as a public health concern by 2030 with a goal to keep the prevalence of LF infections under the 1% threshold. While mass drug administration (MDA) is a primary strategy recommended by WHO, the use of insecticide treated nets (ITN) plays a crucial role as an alternative strategy when MDA cannot be used. In this paper, we use imitation dynamics to incorporate human behavior and voluntary use of ITN into the compartmental epidemiological model of LF transmission. We find the equilibrium states of the dynamics and the ITN usage as it depends on epidemiological parameters and the cost of ITNs. We investigate the conditions under which the voluntary use of ITNs can keep the LF prevalence under the 1% threshold. We found that when the cost of using the ITNs is about 105 smaller than the perceived cost of LF, then the voluntary use of ITNs will eliminate LF as a public health concern. Furthermore, when the ITNs are given away for free, our model predicts that over 80% of the population will use them which would eliminate LF completely in regions where Anopheles are the primary vectors.

Predictive Value of Microfilariae-Based Stop-MDA Thresholds After Triple Drug Therapy With IDA Against Lymphatic Filariasis in Treatment-Naive Indian Settings

Mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial drugs is the main strategy for the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). Recent clinical trials indicated that the triple-drug therapy with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole (IDA) is much more effective against LF than the widely used two-drug combinations (albendazole plus either ivermectin or diethylcarbamazine). For IDA-based MDA, the stop-MDA decision is made based on microfilariae (mf) prevalence in adults. In this study, we assess how the probability of eventually reaching elimination of transmission depends on the critical threshold used in transmission assessment surveys (TAS-es) to define whether transmission was successfully suppressed and triple-drug MDA can be stopped. This analysis focuses on treatment-naive Indian settings. We do this for a range of epidemiological and programmatic contexts, using the established LYMFASIM model for transmission and control of LF. Based on our simulations, a single TAS, one year after the last MDA round, provides limited predictive value of having achieved suppressed transmission, while a higher MDA coverage increases elimination probability, thus leading to a higher predictive value. Every additional TAS, conditional on previous TAS-es being passed with the same threshold, further improves the predictive value for low values of stop-MDA thresholds. An mf prevalence threshold of 0.5% corresponding to TAS-3 results in ≥95% predictive value even when the MDA coverage is relatively low.

Reducing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti

BACKGROUND

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) aims to reduce and maintain infection levels through mass drug administration (MDA), but there is evidence of ongoing transmission after MDA in areas where Culex mosquitoes are the main transmission vector, suggesting that a more stringent criterion is required for MDA decision making in these settings.

METHODS

We use a transmission model to investigate how a lower prevalence threshold (<1% antigenemia [Ag] prevalence compared with <2% Ag prevalence) for MDA decision making would affect the probability of local elimination, health outcomes, the number of MDA rounds, including restarts, and program costs associated with MDA and surveys across different scenarios. To determine the cost-effectiveness of switching to a lower threshold, we simulated 65% and 80% MDA coverage of the total population for different willingness to pay per disability-adjusted life-year averted for India ($446.07), Tanzania ($389.83), and Haiti ($219.84).

RESULTS

Our results suggest that with a lower Ag threshold, there is a small proportion of simulations where extra rounds are required to reach the target, but this also reduces the need to restart MDA later in the program. For 80% coverage, the lower threshold is cost-effective across all baseline prevalences for India, Tanzania, and Haiti. For 65% MDA coverage, the lower threshold is not cost-effective due to additional MDA rounds, although it increases the probability of local elimination. Valuing the benefits of elimination to align with the GPELF goals, we find that a willingness to pay per capita government expenditure of approximately $1000-$4000 for 1% increase in the probability of local elimination would be required to make a lower threshold cost-effective.

CONCLUSIONS

Lower Ag thresholds for stopping MDAs generally mean a higher probability of local elimination, reducing long-term costs and health impacts. However, they may also lead to an increased number of MDA rounds required to reach the lower threshold and, therefore, increased short-term costs. Collectively, our analyses highlight that lower target Ag thresholds have the potential to assist programs in achieving lymphatic filariasis goals.

Lymphatic filariases and soil-transmitted helminthiases in Sri Lanka: the challenge of eliminating residual pockets of transmission

Sri Lanka has successfully met the challenge of controlling both lymphatic filariasis (LF) and soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) as public health problems. The primary public health strategy for combatting both conditions has been preventive chemotherapy. The national programme for the elimination of LF implemented five annual rounds of mass chemotherapy in the endemic districts from 2002 to 2006 using a combination of diethylcarbamazine and albendazole. The overall microfilaria rate declined from 0.21% in 2001 before the mass chemotherapy, to 0.06% in 2016, at declaration of elimination of LF as a public health problem by the World Health Organization. Currently Sri Lanka is in the phase of post-validation surveillance. Achieving control of STH has been more difficult. Mass deworming programmes have been implemented for nearly a century, and national-level surveys reported prevalence rates declining from 6.9% in 2003 to 1% in 2017. However, neither of these infections has been completely eliminated. A situation analysis indicates continued transmission of both among high-risk communities. This paper explores the reasons for persistence of transmission of both LF and STH in residual pockets and the measures that are required to achieve long-term control, or perhaps even interrupt transmission in Sri Lanka. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Sensitivity analysis and parameters estimation for the transmission of lymphatic filariasis

Lymphatic filariasis is a neglected tropical disease which poses public health concern and socio-economic challenges in developing and low-income countries. In this paper, we formulate a deterministic mathematical model for transmission dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to generate data by white noise and use least square method to estimate parameter values. The validity of estimated parameter values is tested by Gaussian distribution method. The residuals of model outputs are normally distributed and hence can be used to study the dynamics of Lymphatic filariasis. After deriving the basic reproduction number, R 0 by the next generation matrix approach, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient is employed to explore which parameters significantly affect and most influential to the model outputs. The analysis for equilibrium states shows that the Lymphatic free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less a unity and endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R 0 ≥ 1 . The findings reveal that rate of human infection, recruitment rate of mosquitoes increase the average new infections for Lymphatic filariasis. Moreover, asymptomatic individuals contribute significantly in the transmission of Lymphatic filariasis.

Assessment of antigenemia among children in four hotspots of filarial endemic districts of Nepal during post-MDA surveillance

BACKGROUND

Sixty-three out of 77 districts reported lymphatic filariasis (LF) endemic in Nepal. Mass drug administration (MDA) with diethylcarbamazine (DEC) and albendazole (ALB) treatment program was continued for 6 to 11 rounds in these districts. Nepal government has stopped the MDA program based on the transmission assessment survey (TAS) report of 2014 and 2018 indicating Wuchereria bancrofti antigenemia prevalence < 2%. But the persistence of low levels of the circulating filarial antigen (CFA) in some foci of four endemic districts of Central Nepal, i.e., 0.4% in Dhading, 0.7% in Mahottari, 0.21% in Lalitpur and 1.2% in Bara district could responsible for enhancing the risk of infection resurgence. Hence the present study was designed to assess antigenic prevalence using Filariasis Test Strip (Alere, Scarborough ME) in children born after MDA in hotspot areas of four endemic districts of Central Nepal.

RESULTS

The present study covers 70% children of the eligible population. The result revealed significantly high CFA prevalence in hotspots of Mahottari district belonging to the Terai region and Dhading district belonging to the hilly region, i.e., 13% and 10%, respectively, compared to baseline prevalence and TAS report. While in Lalitpur district and Bara district CFA prevalence was still found to be less than 2%. A higher number of MDA rounds covered in hotspots were found significantly associated with the low antigenic prevalence of W. bancrofti. Whereas median treatment coverage and inter-quartile range (IQR) in study districts were not found significantly associated with CFA prevalence. Although the clinical manifestation of hydrocele (1%) was found in all four study districts, it was not due to the W. bancrofti infection.

CONCLUSIONS

Two hotspot regions, one each from the Terai (Mahottari) and hilly (Dhading) districts were found highly prevalent with CFA and significantly associated with the number of MDA rounds but were not associated with treatment coverage and IQR. Higher CFA prevalence was observed in hotspots where baseline prevalence was high together indicating that rounds of MDA program need to be extended further in these hotspot regions of endemic districts.

Lymphatic filariasis endgame strategies: Using GEOFIL to model mass drug administration and targeted surveillance and treatment strategies in American Samoa

American Samoa underwent seven rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) from 2000-2006, but subsequent surveys found evidence of ongoing transmission. American Samoa has since undergone further rounds of MDA in 2018, 2019, and 2021; however, recent surveys indicate that transmission is still ongoing. GEOFIL, a spatially-explicit agent-based LF model, was used to compare the effectiveness of territory-wide triple-drug MDA (3D-MDA) with targeted surveillance and treatment strategies. Both approaches relied on treatment with ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole. We simulated three levels of whole population coverage for 3D-MDA: 65%, 73%, and 85%, while the targeted strategies relied on surveillance in schools, workplaces, and households, followed by targeted treatment. In the household-based strategies, we simulated 1-5 teams travelling village-to-village and offering antigen (Ag) testing to randomly selected households in each village. If an Ag-positive person was identified, treatment was offered to members of all households within 100m-1km of the positive case. All simulated interventions were finished by 2027 and their effectiveness was judged by their 'control probability'-the proportion of simulations in which microfilariae prevalence decreased between 2030 and 2035. Without future intervention, we predict Ag prevalence will rebound. With 3D-MDA, a 90% control probability required an estimated ≥ 4 further rounds with 65% coverage, ≥ 3 rounds with 73% coverage, or ≥ 2 rounds with 85% coverage. While household-based strategies were substantially more testing-intensive than 3D-MDA, they could offer comparable control probabilities with substantially fewer treatments; e.g. three teams aiming to test 50% of households and offering treatment to a 500m radius had approximately the same control probability as three rounds of 73% 3D-MDA, but used < 40% the number of treatments. School- and workplace-based interventions proved ineffective. Regardless of strategy, reducing Ag prevalence below the 1% target threshold recommended by the World Health Organization was a poor indicator of the interruption of LF transmission, highlighting the need to review blanket elimination targets.

Optimal Interruption of P. vivax Malaria Transmission Using Mass Drug Administration

Plasmodium vivax is the most geographically widespread malaria-causing parasite resulting in significant associated global morbidity and mortality. One of the factors driving this widespread phenomenon is the ability of the parasites to remain dormant in the liver. Known as 'hypnozoites', they reside in the liver following an initial exposure, before activating later to cause further infections, referred to as 'relapses'. As around 79-96% of infections are attributed to relapses from activating hypnozoites, we expect it will be highly impactful to apply treatment to target the hypnozoite reservoir (i.e. the collection of dormant parasites) to eliminate P. vivax. Treatment with radical cure, for example tafenoquine or primaquine, to target the hypnozoite reservoir is a potential tool to control and/or eliminate P. vivax. We have developed a deterministic multiscale mathematical model as a system of integro-differential equations that captures the complex dynamics of P. vivax hypnozoites and the effect of hypnozoite relapse on disease transmission. Here, we use our multiscale model to study the anticipated effect of radical cure treatment administered via a mass drug administration (MDA) program. We implement multiple rounds of MDA with a fixed interval between rounds, starting from different steady-state disease prevalences. We then construct an optimisation model with three different objective functions motivated on a public health basis to obtain the optimal MDA interval. We also incorporate mosquito seasonality in our model to study its effect on the optimal treatment regime. We find that the effect of MDA interventions is temporary and depends on the pre-intervention disease prevalence (and choice of model parameters) as well as the number of MDA rounds under consideration. The optimal interval between MDA rounds also depends on the objective (combinations of expected intervention outcomes). We find radical cure alone may not be enough to lead to P. vivax elimination under our mathematical model (and choice of model parameters) since the prevalence of infection eventually returns to pre-MDA levels.

Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India

As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.

A game-theoretic model of lymphatic filariasis prevention

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne parasitic neglected tropical disease. In 2000, WHO launched the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) as a public health problem. In 2020, new goals for 2030 were set which includes a reduction to 0 of the total population requiring Mass Drug Administrations (MDA), a primary tool of GPELF. We develop a mathematical model to study what can happen at the end of MDA. We use a game-theoretic approach to assess the voluntary use of insect repellents in the prevention of the spread of LF through vector bites. Our results show that when individuals use what they perceive as optimal levels of protection, the LF incidence rates will become high. This is in striking difference to other vector-borne NTDs such as Chagas or zika. We conclude that the voluntary use of the protection alone will not be enough to keep LF eliminated as a public health problem and a more coordinated effort will be needed at the end of MDA.

Modelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations

Vector control is widely considered an important tool for lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination but is not usually included in program budgets and has often been secondary to other policy questions in modelling studies. Evidence from the field demonstrates that vector control can have a large impact on program outcomes and even halt transmission entirely, but implementation is expensive. Models of LF have the potential to inform where and when resources should be focused, but often simplify vector dynamics and focus on capturing human prevalence trends, making them comparatively ill-designed for direct analysis of vector control measures. We review the recent modelling literature and present additional results using a well-established model, highlighting areas of agreement between model predictions and field evidence, and discussing the possible determinants of existing disagreements. We conclude that there are likely to be long-term benefits of vector control, both on accelerating programs and preventing resurgence.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of lymphatic filariasis in Caraga Region, the Philippines

Despite being one of the first countries to implement mass drug administration (MDA) for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2001 after a pilot study in 2000, the Philippines is yet to eliminate the disease as a public health problem with 6 out of the 46 endemic provinces still implementing MDA for LF as of 2018. In this work, we propose a mathematical model of the transmission dynamics of LF in the Philippines and a control strategy for its elimination using MDA. Sensitivity analysis using the Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficient methods suggests that the infected human population is most sensitive to the treatment parameters. Using the available LF data in Caraga Region from the Philippine Department of Health, we estimate the treatment rates r ₁ and r ₂ using the least-squares parameter estimation technique. Parameter bootstrapping showed small variability in the parameter estimates. Finally, we apply optimal control theory with the objective of minimizing the infected human population and the corresponding implementation cost of MDA, using the treatment coverage γ as the control parameter. Simulation results highlight the importance of maintaining a high MDA coverage per year to effectively minimize the infected population by the year 2030.

An open label, block randomized, community study of the safety and efficacy of co-administered ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole vs. diethylcarbamazine plus albendazole for lymphatic filariasis in India

Background

Better drug regimens for mass drug administration (MDA) could accelerate the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (LF). This community study was designed to compare the safety and efficacy of MDA with IDA (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) or DA (diethylcarbamazine and albendazole) in India.

Methodology/Principal findings

This two-armed, open-labelled, block randomised, community study was conducted in LF endemic villages in Yadgir district, Karnataka, India. Consenting participants ≥5 years of age were tested for circulating filarial antigenemia (CFA) and microfilaremia (Mf) before treatment with a single oral dose of IDA or DA. Adverse events (AEs) were monitored actively for two days and passively for five more days. Persons with positive CFA or Mf tests at baseline were retested 12-months post-treatment to assess treatment efficacy.

Baseline CFA and Mf-rates were 26.4% and 6.9% in IDA and 24.5% and 6.4% in DA villages respectively. 4758 and 4160 participants received IDA and DA. Most AEs were mild after both treatments; fewer than 0.1% of participants experienced AEs with severity > grade 1. No serious AEs were observed. Fever, headache and dizziness were the most common AEs. AE rates were slightly higher after IDA than DA (8.3% vs. 6.4%, P<0.01). AEs were more frequent in females and Mf-positives after either treatment, but significantly more frequent after IDA (40.5% vs 20.2%, P < 0.001).

IDA was more effective for clearing Mf than DA (84% vs. 61.8%, P < 0.001). Geometric mean Mf counts per 60μl in retested Mf-positives decreased by 96.4% from 11.8 after IDA and by 90.0% from 9.5 after DA. Neither treatment was effective for clearing CFA.

Conclusions/Significance

IDA had an acceptable safety profile and was more effective for clearing Mf than DA. With adequate compliance and medical support to manage AEs, IDA has the potential to accelerate LF elimination in India.

Trial registration

Clinical Trial Registry of India (CTRI No/2016/10/007399)

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a major neglected tropical disease that is caused by filarial nematode worms. The strategies of the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis, launched in 2000, are mass drug administration (MDA) of antifilarial medications to kill the parasites and reduce transmission and morbidity management and disability prevention for those who are already affected by the disease. Recent clinical trials have shown that a single co-administered dose of ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine and albendazole (IDA) is more effective for clearing microfilariae (Mf) from the blood than the traditional two-drug regimen (DA). That is important, because blood Mf are essential for mosquitoes to transmit the parasite. As part of a large multicenter study, we assessed the safety of IDA and compared the efficacy of IDA and DA for clearing parasites from the blood. We treated almost 9,000 people in Wuchereria bancrofti endemic villages with either IDA or DA. Adverse events (AE) were monitored actively for two days and passively for another five days. AE rates were slightly higher after IDA than DA, but AEs were mild and self-limited. Infected persons, adults and females had higher AE rates in both treatment areas. We retested infected persons one year after treatment. IDA was significantly more effective for clearing Mf and reducing blood Mf counts than DA. Neither treatment was effective for clearing circulating filarial antigenemia. Our large study showed that IDA was well tolerated and more effective than DA. This new treatment has the potential to hasten LF elimination in India and many other countries.

Stochastic challenges to interrupting helminth transmission

Predicting the effect of different programmes designed to control both the morbidity induced by helminth infections and parasite transmission is greatly facilitated by the use of mathematical models of transmission and control impact. In such models, it is essential to account for the many sources of uncertainty - natural, or otherwise - to ensure robustness in prediction and to accurately depict variation around an expected outcome. In this paper, we investigate how well the standard deterministic models match the predictions made using individual-based stochastic simulations. We also explore how well concepts which derive from deterministic models, such as 'breakpoints' in transmission, apply in the stochastic world. Employing an individual-based stochastic model framework we also investigate how transmission and control are affected by the migration of infected people into a defined community. To give our study focus we consider the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) by mass drug administration (MDA), though our methodology is readily applicable to the other helminth species such as the schistosome parasites and the filarial worms. We show it is possible to theoretically define a 'stochastic breakpoint' where much noise surrounds the expected deterministic breakpoint. We also discuss the concept of the 'interruption of transmission' independent of the 'breakpoint' concept where analyses of model behaviour illustrate the current limitations of deterministic models to account for the 'fade-out' or transmission extinction behaviour in simulations. Our analysis of migration confirms a relationship between the critical infected human migration rate scale (i.e., order of magnitude) per unit of time and the death rate of infective stages that are released into the free-living environment. This relationship is shown to determine the likelihood that control activities aim at chemotherapeutic treatment of the human host will eliminate transmission. The development of a new stochastic simulation code for STH in the form of a publicly-available open-source python package which includes features to incorporate many population stratifications, different control interventions including mass drug administration (with defined frequency, coverage levels and compliance patterns) and inter-village human migration is also described.

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

Risk factors associated with failing pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS) in lymphatic filariasis elimination programs: Results of a multi-country analysis

Achieving elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) as a public health problem requires a minimum of five effective rounds of mass drug administration (MDA) and demonstrating low prevalence in subsequent assessments. The first assessments recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) are sentinel and spot-check sites-referred to as pre-transmission assessment surveys (pre-TAS)-in each implementation unit after MDA. If pre-TAS shows that prevalence in each site has been lowered to less than 1% microfilaremia or less than 2% antigenemia, the implementation unit conducts a TAS to determine whether MDA can be stopped. Failure to pass pre-TAS means that further rounds of MDA are required. This study aims to understand factors influencing pre-TAS results using existing programmatic data from 554 implementation units, of which 74 (13%) failed, in 13 countries. Secondary data analysis was completed using existing data from Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Haiti, Indonesia, Mali, Nepal, Niger, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, and Uganda. Additional covariate data were obtained from spatial raster data sets. Bivariate analysis and multilinear regression were performed to establish potential relationships between variables and the pre-TAS result. Higher baseline prevalence and lower elevation were significant in the regression model. Variables statistically significantly associated with failure (p-value ≤0.05) in the bivariate analyses included baseline prevalence at or above 5% or 10%, use of Filariasis Test Strips (FTS), primary vector of Culex, treatment with diethylcarbamazine-albendazole, higher elevation, higher population density, higher enhanced vegetation index (EVI), higher annual rainfall, and 6 or more rounds of MDA. This paper reports for the first time factors associated with pre-TAS results from a multi-country analysis. This information can help countries more effectively forecast program activities, such as the potential need for more rounds of MDA, and prioritize resources to ensure adequate coverage of all persons in areas at highest risk of failing pre-TAS.

Review of MDA registers for Lymphatic Filariasis: Findings, and potential uses in addressing the endgame elimination challenges

Background

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is endemic in Ghana, and the country has implemented the GPELF strategy since 2000 with significant progress made in the control of the disease. However, after several years of mass drug administration (MDA) implementation, there is persistent transmission in 17 of the 98 endemic districts in the country. Current approaches to surveillance are clearly unable to target untreated individuals and new strategies are required to address the endgame challenges to enhance LF elimination as a public health problem in endemic countries. Community registers are used during MDAs to enumerate community members, their age, gender, house numbers, and records of their participation in MDAs. These MDA registers represent an untapped opportunity to identify and characterize non-compliance and inform appropriate programmatic actions. In this study, we analyzed the data presented in the registers to assess the coverage and individuals’ compliance in MDA.

Methods

The information in the MDA registers were assessed to verify the reported coverages obtained from the district. The community registers were obtained from the district health offices and the data from each individual record was entered into a database. A simple questionnaire was used to cross-check the participation of study participants in the 2017 MDA. The questionnaire solicited data on: participation in the 2017 MDA, reasons for not taking part in the MDA, adverse events experienced, what was done for the adverse events, and willingness to participate in subsequent MDAs.

Results

We found that 40.1% of the population in the registers missed at least one MDA in 3 years (2016–2018) and the majority of them were between 10–30 years of age. The results of the questionnaire assessment indicated that 13.8% of the respondents did not receive treatment in 2017 for various reasons, the most prominent among them being “absence/travel” (37.1%). Data in the registers were used to verify the treatment coverage for the years 2017 and 2018, and reviewed against the reported coverage obtained from the district. Significant differences between the reported and verified coverages were only observed in four communities. However, the assessment also revealed that the reported coverage was only accurate in 33.3% of cases.

Conclusions

The MDA registers allow for the identification of eligible individuals who were not reached during any MDA round. Thus, the MDA registers could be utilized at the community and programme levels to identify missing and untreated individuals, appropriately address their non-compliance to MDA, and thereby improve MDA coverage in each implementation unit and monitor the progress towards elimination of LF. The challenges observed through the review of the registers also offer opportunities to improve the training given to the community drug distributors.

Elephantiasis is a disease that is common in Ghana. Since the year 2000 the country has implemented a control programme aimed at eliminating the disease as a public health problem, through the yearly treatment of entire communities in districts where the disease is found. Achievements have been made, and treatment has stopped in many districts; however, some districts have received many years of treatment without successfully reducing the infections below the targeted levels. Many individuals go untreated every year, as can be observed from the low reported treatment coverage after MDA. This untreated population may explain why some districts have failed to achieve the criteria for stopping treatment. Fortunately, the treatments are recorded in community registers, which contain the details of all community members, as well as their treatment participation. These registers can therefore be used to identify people who have not received treatment and design appropriate interventions to reach them. Through these registers, we were able to identify and characterize individuals who were not treated between 2016 and 2018 in 10 communities. We found that 4 out of 10 people missed at least one treatment between 2016 and 2018, and the majority of them were 10–30 years of age. Using the information from the registers we were also able to verify the proportion of people who took part in the treatments in 2017 and 2018, and compared this to what was reported. This comparison revealed that the reporting was only accurate in 33% of cases. A questionnaire was also used to cross-check the participation of study participants in the 2017 MDA, with results indicating that 13.8% of the respondents did not receive treatment for various reasons, the most prominent among them being “absence/travel” (37.1%). Although these registers are seldom used by the Lymphatic Filariasis Control Programme for anything other than recording and reporting treatment information, this study shows that the registers provide an opportunity to identify individuals who have not received treatment, develop a plan to appropriately address their reasons for not taking part in the treatments, target these untreated individuals to improve the overall proportion of people taking part in MDA, and assess the accuracy of reported coverage information. These activities will allow the programme to better monitor the progress towards, and ultimately achieve, elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem.

Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models

Background

With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling.

Methods

We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%.

Results

Three annual MDA rounds with IA or DA and good coverage (≥65%) are sufficient to reach the threshold in settings that are currently at mf prevalence <4%, but the required duration increases with increasing mf prevalence. Switching to biannual MDA or employing triple-drug therapy (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole [IDA]) could reduce program duration by about one-third. Optimization of coverage reduces the time to elimination and is particularly important for settings with a history of poorly implemented MDA (low coverage, high systematic noncompliance).

Conclusions

Modeling suggests that, in several settings, current annual MDA strategies will be insufficient to achieve the 2020 LF elimination targets, and programs could consider policy adjustment to accelerate, guided by recent monitoring and evaluation data. Biannual treatment and IDA hold promise in reducing program duration, provided that coverage is good, but their efficacy remains to be confirmed by more extensive field studies.

Green Micro- and Nanoemulsions for Managing Parasites, Vectors and Pests

The management of parasites, insect pests and vectors requests development of novel, effective and eco-friendly tools. The development of resistance towards many drugs and pesticides pushed scientists to look for novel bioactive compounds endowed with multiple modes of action, and with no risk to human health and environment. Several natural products are used as alternative/complementary approaches to manage parasites, insect pests and vectors due to their high efficacy and often limited non-target toxicity. Their encapsulation into nanosystems helps overcome some hurdles related to their physicochemical properties, for instance limited stability and handling, enhancing the overall efficacy. Among different nanosystems, micro- and nanoemulsions are easy-to-use systems in terms of preparation and industrial scale-up. Different reports support their efficacy against parasites of medical importance, including Leishmania, Plasmodium and Trypanosoma as well as agricultural and stored product insect pests and vectors of human diseases, such as Aedes and Culex mosquitoes. Overall, micro- and nanoemulsions are valid options for developing promising eco-friendly tools in pest and vector management, pending proper field validation. Future research on the improvement of technical aspects as well as chronic toxicity experiments on non-target species is needed.

Progress towards lymphatic filariasis elimination in Ghana from 2000-2016: Analysis of microfilaria prevalence data from 430 communities

BACKGROUND

Ghana started its national programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2000, with mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin and albendazole as main strategy. We review the progress towards elimination that was made by 2016 for all endemic districts of Ghana and analyze microfilaria (mf) prevalence from sentinel and spot-check sites in endemic districts.

METHODS

We reviewed district level data on the history of MDA and outcomes of transmission assessment surveys (TAS). We further collated and analyzed mf prevalence data from sentinel and spot-check sites.

RESULTS

MDA was initiated in 2001-2006 in all 98 endemic districts; by the end of 2016, 81 had stopped MDA after passing TAS and after an average of 11 rounds of treatment (range 8-14 rounds). The median reported coverage for the communities was 77-80%. Mf prevalence survey data were available for 430 communities from 78/98 endemic districts. Baseline mf prevalence data were available for 53 communities, with an average mf prevalence of 8.7% (0-45.7%). Repeated measurements were available for 78 communities, showing a steep decrease in mean mf prevalence in the first few years of MDA, followed by a gradual further decline. In the 2013 and 2014 surveys, 7 and 10 communities respectively were identified with mf prevalence still above 1% (maximum 5.6%). Fifteen of the communities above threshold are all within districts where MDA was still ongoing by 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

The MDA programme of the Ghana Health Services has reduced mf prevalence in sentinel sites below the 1% threshold in 81/98 endemic districts in Ghana, yet 15 communities within 13 districts (MDA ongoing by 2016) had higher prevalence than this threshold during the surveys in 2013 and 2014. These districts may need to intensify interventions to achieve the WHO 2020 target.

Combining different diagnostic studies of lymphatic filariasis for risk mapping in Papua New Guinea: a predictive model from microfilaraemia and antigenaemia prevalence surveys

Background

The Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis has encouraged countries to follow a set of guidelines to help them assess the need for mass drug administration and evaluate its progress. Papua New Guinea (PNG) is one of the highest priority countries in the Western Pacific for lymphatic filariasis and the site of extensive research on lymphatic filariasis and surveys of its prevalence. However, different diagnostic tests have been used and thresholds for each test are unclear.

Methods

We reviewed the prevalence of lymphatic filariasis reported in 295 surveys conducted in PNG between 1990 and 2014, of which 65 used more than one test. Results from different diagnostics were standardised using a set of criteria that included a model to predict antigen prevalence from microfilariae prevalence. We mapped the point location of each of these surveys and categorised their standardised prevalence estimates.

Results

Several predictive models were produced and investigated, including the effect of any mass drug administration and number of rounds prior to the surveys. One model was chosen based on goodness of fit parameters and used to predict antigen prevalence for surveys that tested only for microfilariae. Standardised prevalence values show that 72% of all surveys reported a prevalence above 0.05. High prevalence was situated on the coastal north, south and island regions, while the central highland area of Papua New Guinea shows low levels of prevalence.

Conclusions

Our study is the first to provide an explicit predictive relationship between the prevalence values based on empirical results from antigen and microfilaria tests, taking into account the occurrence of mass drug administration. This is a crucial step to combine studies to develop risk maps of lymphatic filariasis for programme planning and evaluation, as shown in the case of Papua New Guinea.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s41182-018-0123-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Quantifying the value of surveillance data for improving model predictions of lymphatic filariasis elimination

Background

Mathematical models are increasingly being used to evaluate strategies aiming to achieve the control or elimination of parasitic diseases. Recently, owing to growing realization that process-oriented models are useful for ecological forecasts only if the biological processes are well defined, attention has focused on data assimilation as a means to improve the predictive performance of these models.

Methodology and principal findings

We report on the development of an analytical framework to quantify the relative values of various longitudinal infection surveillance data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) for calibrating three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to achieve parasite elimination in endemic populations. The relative information contribution of site-specific data collected at the time points proposed by the WHO monitoring framework was evaluated using model-data updating procedures, and via calculations of the Shannon information index and weighted variances from the probability distributions of the estimated timelines to parasite extinction made by each model. Results show that data-informed models provided more precise forecasts of elimination timelines in each site compared to model-only simulations. Data streams that included year 5 post-MDA microfilariae (mf) survey data, however, reduced each model’s uncertainty most compared to data streams containing only baseline and/or post-MDA 3 or longer-term mf survey data irrespective of MDA coverage, suggesting that data up to this monitoring point may be optimal for informing the present LF models. We show that the improvements observed in the predictive performance of the best data-informed models may be a function of temporal changes in inter-parameter interactions. Such best data-informed models may also produce more accurate predictions of the durations of drug interventions required to achieve parasite elimination.

Significance

Knowledge of relative information contributions of model only versus data-informed models is valuable for improving the usefulness of LF model predictions in management decision making, learning system dynamics, and for supporting the design of parasite monitoring programmes. The present results further pinpoint the crucial need for longitudinal infection surveillance data for enhancing the precision and accuracy of model predictions of the intervention durations required to achieve parasite elimination in an endemic location.

Although parasite transmission models offer powerful tools for predicting the impacts of interventions, there is growing realization that these models can be useful for this purpose only if their governing biological processes are well defined. Recently, model-data assimilation has been applied to address this problem and improve the performance of process-oriented models for ecological forecasting. Here, we developed an analytical framework that allowed the sequential coupling of the three existing lymphatic filariasis (LF) models with longitudinal infection monitoring data collected in field sites undergoing mass drug administrations (MDAs) to examine the relative value of such data for parameterizing these models and for improving their predictions of the required durations of drug interventions to break parasite transmission. We found that data-informed models provided more precise and reliable forecasts of elimination timelines in the study sites compared to model-only predictions, and that data collected up to 5 years post-MDA reduced each model’s predictive uncertainty most. We also found that this improved performance may be intriguingly related to temporal changes in system dynamics. Our results underscore the significance of sequential model-data fusion for enhancing the understanding of LF transmission dynamics, design of surveillance, and generation of reliable model predictions for management decision making.

Comparison and validation of two mathematical models for the impact of mass drug administration on Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection

The predictions of two mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection and the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) are compared, using data from India. One model has an age structured partial differential equation (PDE) deterministic framework for the distribution of parasite numbers per host and sexual mating. The second model is an individual-based stochastic model. Baseline data acquired prior to treatment are used to estimate key transmission parameters, and forward projections are made, given the known MDA population coverage. Predictions are compared with observed post-treatment epidemiological patterns. The two models could equally well predict the short-term impact of deworming on A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection levels, despite being fitted to different subsets and/or summary statistics of the data. As such, the outcomes give confidence in their use as aids to policy formulation for the use of PCT to control A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection. The models further largely agree in a qualitative sense on the added benefit of semi-annual vs. annual deworming and targeting of the entire population vs. only children, as well as the potential for interruption of transmission. Further, this study also illustrates that long-term predictions are sensitive to modelling assumptions about which age groups contribute most to transmission, which depends on human demography and age-patterns in exposure and contribution to the environmental reservoir of infection, the latter being notoriously difficult to empirically quantify.

Predicting lymphatic filariasis transmission and elimination dynamics using a multi-model ensemble framework

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No single mathematical model captures all features of parasite transmission dynamics.

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Multi-model ensemble modelling can overcome biases of single models.

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A multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis models is proposed and evaluated.

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The multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models in predicting infection.

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The ensemble approach may improve use of models to inform disease control policy.

Mathematical models of parasite transmission provide powerful tools for assessing the impacts of interventions. Owing to complexity and uncertainty, no single model may capture all features of transmission and elimination dynamics. Multi-model ensemble modelling offers a framework to help overcome biases of single models. We report on the development of a first multi-model ensemble of three lymphatic filariasis (LF) models (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, and TRANSFIL), and evaluate its predictive performance in comparison with that of the constituents using calibration and validation data from three case study sites, one each from the three major LF endemic regions: Africa, Southeast Asia and Papua New Guinea (PNG). We assessed the performance of the respective models for predicting the outcomes of annual MDA strategies for various baseline scenarios thought to exemplify the current endemic conditions in the three regions. The results show that the constructed multi-model ensemble outperformed the single models when evaluated across all sites. Single models that best fitted calibration data tended to do less well in simulating the out-of-sample, or validation, intervention data. Scenario modelling results demonstrate that the multi-model ensemble is able to compensate for variance between single models in order to produce more plausible predictions of intervention impacts. Our results highlight the value of an ensemble approach to modelling parasite control dynamics. However, its optimal use will require further methodological improvements as well as consideration of the organizational mechanisms required to ensure that modelling results and data are shared effectively between all stakeholders.

Determinants of transmission hotspots and filarial infection in households after eight rounds of mass drug administration in India

OBJECTIVES

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination through mass drug administration (MDA) of DEC and albendazole have resulted in very low levels of infection in most endemic districts in India. But small pockets with residual microfilaraemia in the community and antigeneamia in children ('hotspots') are a cause of concern. We aimed to identify the determinants of such transmission hotspots and filarial infection in households using data from 33 communities.

METHODS

The filariasis vector Culex quinquefasciatus was collected from 627 randomly selected households using gravid traps. Parallel data on environmental, entomological, demographical, socio-economical and behavioural factors were analysed to identify the determinants of hotspots and household-level infection.

RESULTS

Hotspots and non-hotspots did not differ significantly in terms of socio-economical and behavioural aspects, but did differ in terms of demographical and environmental factors. Logistic regression revealed that tiled and concrete houses increased the risk of an area being a hotspot by 2.0 and 2.9 times respectively. Presence of Culex breeding habitats was significantly associated with elevated risk of being a hotspot. Proximity of U-drains to a house increased the risk of filarial infection 5.8 times.

CONCLUSIONS

An environment suitable to Culex breeding influences continued transmission despite eight rounds of MDA, particularly in hotspots. Proximity to U-drains increases the risk of infection in households. Implementing localised vector control measures may help interrupt low-level transmission, thereby reducing the risk of resurgence in the absence of MDA.

NYD-OP7/PLC regulatory signaling pathway regulates deltamethrin resistance in Culex pipiens pallens (Diptera: Culicidae)

BACKGROUND

Investigation of insecticide resistance mechanisms is considered a vital first step towards the creation of effective strategies to control resistant mosquitoes and manage mosquito-borne diseases. Our previous study revealed that NYD-OP7 may be associated with deltamethrin resistance in Culex pipiens pallen. However, the precise function of NYD-OP7 in deltamethrin resistance is still unclear. In this study, we investigated the role of NYD-OP7 in the molecular mechanisms underlying pyrethroid resistance.

RESULTS

Knockdown of NYD-OP7 not only increased the susceptibility of the mosquitoes to deltamethrin in vivo but also simultaneously repressed both expression and enzyme activity of its downstream effector molecule, phospholipase C (PLC) and expression of several insecticide resistance-related P450 genes. Knockdown of PLC also sensitized the mosquitoes to deltamethrin and reduced the expression of the P450 genes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results revealed that NYD-OP7 and its downstream effector PLC contribute to deltamethrin resistance by regulating the expression of P450s in Cx. pipiens pallens.

Artificial blood feeders for mosquito and ticks-Where from, where to?

Mosquito and tick feeding activity represent a key threat for humans, livestock, pets and wildlife worldwide. Rearing these vectors in laboratory conditions is extremely important to investigate basic facets of their biology, vector competence, new control strategies, as well as mechanisms of pesticide resistance. However, the use of animals or humans to provide blood for hematophagous arthropod feeding poses a strict limit to these researches, due to the accidental transmission of diseases, ethical problems concerning animal welfare, as well as expensive and time-consuming animal rearing procedures. The use of devices to artificially feed arthropod vectors can importantly leverage progresses in parasitology and entomology. The aim of this review is to summarize current knowledge about artificial feeding of mosquitoes and ticks, focusing on key concepts and case studies about the design and fabrication of blood feeding devices. From a technical standpoint, the literature analyzed here showed little standardization of materials used for fabricating membrane interfaces, as well as in the strategy used to heat the "biomimetic host". In addition, a lack of uniform methods to design an architecture merging complex and realistic cues with an easy-to-assemble approach have been found. Some commercial products are available, but they are quite expensive, thus hard to reach for many laboratories, especially in developing countries. An important challenge for future research is represented by the introduction of automation and bioinspired engineered solutions in these devices, improving the effectiveness of blood-feeding systems by increasing their host-mimicking features. Automation can reduce labor costs and provide interesting solutions - in line with the 3R principle "reduce, replace and refine" - aimed to minimize the employ of experimental animals in research.

Managing mosquitoes and ticks in a rapidly changing world - Facts and trends

Vector-borne diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks are on the rise. The effective and sustainable control of these arthropod vectors is a puzzling challenge for public health worldwide. In the present review, I attempted to provide a concise and updated overview of the current mosquito and tick research scenario. The wide array of control tools recently developed has been considered, with special reference to those approved by the World Health Organization Vector Control Advisory Group (WHO VCAG), as well as novel ones with an extremely promising potential to be exploited in vector control programs. Concerning mosquitoes, a major focus has been given on genetically modified vectors, eave tubes, attractive toxic sugar baits (ATSB) and biocontrol agents. Regarding ticks, the recent development of highly effective repellents and acaricides (including nanoformulated ones) as well as behavior-based control tools, has been highlighted. In the second part of the review, key research questions about biology and control of mosquitoes and ticks have been critically formulated. A timely research agenda outlining hot issues to be addressed in mosquito and tick research is provided. Overall, it is expected that the present review will contribute to boost research and applications on successful mosquito and tick control strategies, along with an improved knowledge of their biology and ecology.

Elimination of lymphatic filariasis: current perspectives on mass drug administration

Following the London declaration on neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) in 2012 and inspired by the WHO 2020 roadmap to control or eliminate NTDs, the Global Programme to Eliminate Lymphatic Filariasis (GPELF) intensified preventive chemotherapy and management of morbidity as the two main strategies to enhance progress towards the elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF). This paper focuses on current perspectives of mass drug administration (MDA) towards the elimination of LF. The goal of MDA is to reduce the density of parasites circulating in the blood of infected persons and the intensity of infection in communities to levels where transmission is no longer sustainable by the mosquito vector. Three drugs, diethylcarbamazine, albendazole, and ivermectin are currently available for LF treatment, and their effectiveness and relative safety have opened the possibility of treating the entire population at risk. Currently, almost all LF endemic countries rely on the single-dose two-drug regimen recommended by the GPELF to achieve elimination. The 4th WHO report on NTDs has indicated that considerable progress has been made towards elimination of LF in some countries while acknowledging some challenges. In this review, we conclude that the 2020 elimination goal can be achieved if issues pertaining to the drug distribution, health system and implementation challenges are addressed.

Persistent 'hotspots' of lymphatic filariasis microfilaraemia despite 14 years of mass drug administration in Ghana

Background

Among the 216 districts in Ghana, 98 were declared endemic for lymphatic filariasis in 1999 after mapping. Pursuing the goal of elimination, WHO recommends annual treatment using mass drugs administration (MDA) for at least 5 years. MDA was started in the country in 2001 and reached national coverage in 2006. By 2014, 69 districts had 'stopped-MDA' (after passing the transmission assessment survey) while 29 others remained with persistent microfilaraemia (mf) prevalence (≥1%) despite more than 11 years of MDA and were classified as 'hotspots'.

Methods

An ecological study was carried out to compare baseline mf prevalence and anti-microfilaria interventions between hotspot and stopped-MDA districts.

Results

Baseline mf prevalence was significantly higher in hotspots than stopped-MDA districts (p<0.001). After three years of MDA, there was a significant decrease in mf prevalence in hotspot districts, but it was still higher than in stopped-MDA districts. The number of MDA rounds was slightly higher in hotspot districts (p<0.001), but there were no differences in coverage of MDA or long-lasting-insecticide-treated nets.

Conclusions

The main difference in hotspots and stopped-MDA districts was a high baseline mf prevalence. This finding indicates that the recommended 5-6 rounds annual treatment may not achieve interruption of transmission.

Improving the efficacy of a prophylactic vaccine formulation against lymphatic filariasis

Mass drug administration (MDA) is the current strategy for interrupting the transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) infection and control of the disease in endemic areas. However, subject non-compliance has resulted in the presence of several "transmission hotspots" in the endemic regions threatening the reemergence of LF. This situation is further complicated by the fact that the drugs used in MDA are not effective against adult LF worms, a major concern for the control strategy. Thus, there is clearly a need for an effective and sustainable approach to control LF. Prophylactic vaccine combined with targeted treatment of infected patients and vector control is suggested as a more sustainable strategy to eliminate LF infection from endemic regions. A multivalent vaccine (rBmHAT) developed in our laboratory conferred about 90% protection in rodents. However, when we tested the rBmHAT vaccine along with alum in rhesus macaques, only about 40% protection was achieved and the immune response obtained was Th2 biased. In an attempt to improve the vaccine, in this study, we tested two vaccine antigens (rBmHAT and rBmHAX) along with two adjuvant formulations [alum + GLA (AL019) and mannosylated chitosan (MCA)] in a mouse model. Our results show that rBmHAT is a better vaccine antigen than rBmHAX. Combination of rBmHAT with AL019 or MCA adjuvants gave 94 and 88% protection, respectively, against challenge infections. Immunized animals developed antigen-specific memory T cells that secreted significant levels of IL-4, IFN-γ, and IL-17 suggesting the generation of a balanced Th1/Th2 responses following immunization. A major advantage of MCA adjuvant is that the vaccine booster doses can be administered orally. These studies thus showed that rBmHAT is a better vaccine antigen and can be given in combination with AL019 or MCA adjuvant to obtain excellent results.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Modelling Anti-Ov16 IgG4 Antibody Prevalence as an Indicator for Evaluation and Decision Making in Onchocerciasis Elimination Programmes

BACKGROUND

Onchocerciasis is targeted for elimination in Africa through annual or biannual ivermectin mass drug administration (MDA). An immunodiagnostic test, based on the detection of human IgG4 antibodies in the blood to the Onchocerca volvulus-specific antigen Ov16, is one of the recommended tools for determining whether transmission is interrupted and mass treatment can stop. For different transmission settings, the relationship between post-MDA Ov16 antibody prevalence in children (measured 1 year after the last round of MDA) and the duration and coverage of MDA, the mf prevalence in the population, and the probability that onchocerciasis is eventually eliminated is explored through mathematical modelling.

METHODOLOGY

The ONCHOSIM model was extended with new output on the Ov16 antibody serostatus of individuals. Seroconversion was assumed to be triggered by the first worm establishing in the host, with seroconversion occurring either before maturation, after maturation or only after the start of mf production. We are mainly interested in seroconversion rates in children, and for now ignore the possibility of seroreversion to simplify the model.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Yearly repeated MDA leads to a strong reduction in the parasite acquisition rate in humans. This reduces the seroconversion rate in newborns and young children, while those who seroconverted before the start of control remain antibody positive. Both the microfiladermia prevalence in the population aged 5 years and above and the Ov16 antibody prevalence in children under 10 declined with increasing duration of MDA. The association between either of these indicators and the model-predicted probability of elimination was not influenced much by the assumed treatment coverage levels, but was found to depend on baseline endemicity levels, assumptions regarding the trigger of seroconversion, and diagnostic test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity).

CONCLUSIONS

Better understanding of the dynamics of Ov16 antibody responses is required for accurate interpretation of seroprevalence data and more precise estimation of endpoint for MDA. Our study demonstrates that this endpoint will be dependent on baseline endemicity levels, which should be taken into account in guidelines for defining when to stop MDA.

Effectiveness of a triple-drug regimen for global elimination of lymphatic filariasis: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic filariasis is targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2020. The principal approach used by current programmes is annual mass drug administration with two pairs of drugs with a good safety profile. However, one dose of a triple-drug regimen (ivermectin, diethylcarbamazine, and albendazole) has been shown to clear the transmissible stage of the helminth completely in treated individuals. The aim of this study was to use modelling to assess the potential value of mass drug administration with the triple-drug regimen for accelerating elimination of lymphatic filariasis in different epidemiological settings.

METHODS

We used three different transmission models to compare the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to achieve a prevalence of microfilaraemia less than 1% with the triple-drug regimen and with current two-drug regimens.

FINDINGS

In settings with a low baseline prevalence of lymphatic filariasis (5%), the triple-drug regimen reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed to reach the target prevalence by one or two rounds, compared with the two-drug regimen. For areas with higher baseline prevalence (10-40%), the triple-drug regimen strikingly reduced the number of rounds of mass drug administration needed, by about four or five, but only at moderate-to-high levels of population coverage (>65%) and if systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration was low.

INTERPRETATION

Simulation modelling suggests that the triple-drug regimen has potential to accelerate the elimination of lymphatic filariasis if high population coverage of mass drug administration can be achieved and if systematic non-adherence with mass drug administration is low. Future work will reassess these estimates in light of more clinical trial data and to understand the effect on an individual country's programme.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Modelling strategies to break transmission of lymphatic filariasis--aggregation, adherence and vector competence greatly alter elimination

BACKGROUND

With ambitious targets to eliminate lymphatic filariasis over the coming years, there is a need to identify optimal strategies to achieve them in areas with different baseline prevalence and stages of control. Modelling can assist in identifying what data should be collected and what strategies are best for which scenarios.

METHODS

We develop a new individual-based, stochastic mathematical model of the transmission of lymphatic filariasis. We validate the model by fitting to a first time point and predicting future timepoints from surveillance data in Kenya and Sri Lanka, which have different vectors and different stages of the control programme. We then simulate different treatment scenarios in low, medium and high transmission settings, comparing once yearly mass drug administration (MDA) with more frequent MDA and higher coverage. We investigate the potential impact that vector control, systematic non-compliance and different levels of aggregation have on the dynamics of transmission and control.

RESULTS

In all settings, increasing coverage from 65 to 80 % has a similar impact on control to treating twice a year at 65 % coverage, for fewer drug treatments being distributed. Vector control has a large impact, even at moderate levels. The extent of aggregation of parasite loads amongst a small portion of the population, which has been estimated to be highly variable in different settings, can undermine the success of a programme, particularly if high risk sub-communities are not accessing interventions.

CONCLUSION

Even moderate levels of vector control have a large impact both on the reduction in prevalence and the maintenance of gains made during MDA, even when parasite loads are highly aggregated, and use of vector control is at moderate levels. For the same prevalence, differences in aggregation and adherence can result in very different dynamics. The novel analysis of a small amount of surveillance data and resulting simulations highlight the need for more individual level data to be analysed to effectively tailor programmes in the drive for elimination.