Identifying optimal threshold statistics for elimination of hookworm using a stochastic simulation model

Spatial heterogeneity in mass drug administration from a longitudinal epidemiological study assessing transmission interruption of soil transmitted helminths in the Wolaita zone of southern Ethiopia (Geshiyaro Project)

OBJECTIVES

Deworming programmes of soil-transmitted helminths are generally monitored and evaluated by aggregating drug coverage and infection levels at a district level. However, heterogeneity in drug coverage at finer spatial scales means indicators may remain above thresholds for elimination as a public health problem or of transmission in some areas. This paper aims to highlight the misleading information that aggregating data at larger spatial scales can have for programme decision making.

METHODS

Drug coverage data from the Geshiyaro project were compared at two spatial scales with reference to the World Health Organisation's targets. District (woreda) and village (kebele) level were compared. The association between infection levels and drug coverage was analysed by fitting a weighted least-squares function to the mean intensity of infection (eggs per gram of faeces) against drug coverage.

RESULTS

The data show clearly that when the evaluation of coverage is aggregated to the district level, information on heterogeneity at a finer spatial scale is lost. Infection intensity decreases significantly (p = 0.0023) with increasing drug coverage.

CONCLUSION

Aggregating data at large spatial scales can result in prematurely ceasing deworming, prompting rapid infection bounce-back. There is a strong need to define context-specific spatial scales for monitoring and evaluating intervention programmes.

Cross-Sectional Study of Soil-Transmitted Helminthiases in Black Belt Region of Alabama, USA

We conducted a cross-sectional study to determine the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH) in areas of rural Alabama, USA, that have sanitation deficits. We enrolled 777 children; 704 submitted stool specimens and 227 a dried blood spot sample. We microscopically examined stool specimens from all 704 children by using Mini-FLOTAC for helminth eggs. We tested a subset by using molecular techniques: real-time PCR analysis for 5 STH species, TaqMan Array Cards for enteric helminths, and digital PCR for Necator americanus hookworm. We analyzed dried blood spots for Strongyloides stercoralis and Toxocara spp. roundworms by using serologic testing. Despite 12% of our cohort reporting living in homes that directly discharge untreated domestic wastewater, stool testing for STH was negative; however, 5% of dried blood spots were positive for Toxocara spp. roundworms. Survey data suggests substantial numbers of children in this region may be exposed to raw sewage, which is itself a major public health concern.

Modelling morbidity for neglected tropical diseases: the long and winding road from cumulative exposure to long-term pathology

Reducing the morbidities caused by neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) is a central aim of ongoing disease control programmes. The broad spectrum of pathogens under the umbrella of NTDs lead to a range of negative health outcomes, from malnutrition and anaemia to organ failure, blindness and carcinogenesis. For some NTDs, the most severe clinical manifestations develop over many years of chronic or repeated infection. For these diseases, the association between infection and risk of long-term pathology is generally complex, and the impact of multiple interacting factors, such as age, co-morbidities and host immune response, is often poorly quantified. Mathematical modelling has been used for many years to gain insights into the complex processes underlying the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases; however, long-term morbidities associated with chronic or cumulative exposure are generally not incorporated into dynamic models for NTDs. Here we consider the complexities and challenges for determining the relationship between cumulative pathogen exposure and morbidity at the individual and population levels, drawing on case studies for trachoma, schistosomiasis and foodborne trematodiasis. We explore potential frameworks for explicitly incorporating long-term morbidity into NTD transmission models, and consider the insights such frameworks may bring in terms of policy-relevant projections for the elimination era. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

Evaluation of opportunities to implement community-wide mass drug administration for interrupting transmission of soil-transmitted helminths infections in India

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) guidelines recommend control of soil transmitted helminth (STH)-associated morbidity with targeted deworming of preschool and school-aged children who are disproportionately affected by STH-associated morbidity. However, this strategy leaves many adults untreated and reinfection within communities perpetuates transmission even when mass drug administration (MDA) coverage of children is high. Evidence suggests that it may be possible to interrupt STH transmission by expanding MDA to a community-wide MDA (cMDA).

METHODS

This multi-methods study of organizational readiness survey, key informant interviews, and program mapping, were conducted with government stakeholders in three Indian states, Goa, Sikkim, and Odisha, to assess readiness of the states for transitioning from school-based MDA to cMDA and identify opportunities to leverage existing infrastructure from other NTD programs like lymphatic filariasis (LF) for STH cMDA.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Overall, all three states indicated a highly favorable policy environment, effective leadership structure, adequate material resources, demonstrated technical capacity, and adequate community infrastructure needed to launch a STH cMDA program. The findings indicated a high-level of health system readiness to implement provided human resources and financial resources to deliver cMDA is strengthened. Areas with a significant overlap between LF and STH MDA platforms, particularly at the community-level, may be best primed for transitioning. Immunization, maternal child health, and non-communicable disease control programs were the other programs for possible integration of cMDA. States indicated having effective leadership structures in place at the state-level, however, engaging local leaders and community groups were considered crucial for successful implementation of cMDA. In-migration was a perceived challenge for estimating drug requirement and preventing possible stockouts.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this study are intended to proactively support government decision making, prioritization, and program planning across heterogenous implementation contexts in India to speed the translation of research findings into practice.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03014167; ClinicalTrials.gov.

Comparison of coproprevalence and seroprevalence to guide decision-making in national soil-transmitted helminthiasis control programs: Ethiopia as a case study

BACKGROUND

WHO recommends periodical assessment of the prevalence of any soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections to adapt the frequency of mass drug administration targeting STHs. Today, detection of eggs in stool smears (Kato-Katz thick smear) remains the diagnostic standard. However, stool examination (coprology) has important operational drawbacks and impedes integrated surveys of multiple neglected tropical diseases. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to assess the potential of applying serology instead of coprology in STH control program decision-making.

METHODOLOGY

An antibody-ELISA based on extract of Ascaris lung stage larvae (AsLungL3-ELISA) was applied in ongoing monitoring activities of the Ethiopian national control program against schistosomiasis and soil-transmitted helminthiasis. Blood and stool samples were collected from over 6,700 students (median age: 11) from 63 schools in 33 woredas (districts) across the country. Stool samples of two consecutive days were analyzed applying duplicate Kato-Katz thick smear.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

On woreda level, qualitative (seroprevalence) and quantitative (mean optical density ratio) serology results were highly correlated, and hence seroprevalence was chosen as parameter. For 85% of the woredas, prevalence based on serology was higher than those based on coprology. The results suggested cross-reactivity of the AsLungL3-ELISA with Trichuris. When extrapolating the WHO coproprevalence thresholds, there was a moderate agreement (weighted κ = 0.43) in program decision-making. Using the same threshold values would predominantly lead to a higher frequency of drug administration.

SIGNIFICANCE

This is the first time that serology for soil-transmitted helminthiasis is applied on such large scale, thereby embedded in a control program context. The results underscore that serology holds promise as a tool to monitor STH control programs. Further research should focus on the optimization of the diagnostic assay and the refinement of serology-specific program decision-making thresholds.

Defining optimal implementation packages for delivering community-wide mass drug administration for soil-transmitted helminths with high coverage

Background

Recent evidence suggests that community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) may interrupt the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH), a group of intestinal worms that infect 1.5 billion individuals globally. Although current operational guidelines provide best practices for effective MDA delivery, they do not describe which activities are most essential for achieving high coverage or how they work together to produce effective intervention delivery. We aimed to identify the various packages of influential intervention delivery activities that result in high coverage of community-wide MDA for STH in Benin, India, and Malawi.

Methods

We applied coincidence analysis (CNA), a novel cross-case analytical method, to process mapping data as part of the implementation science research of the DeWorm3 Project, a Hybrid Type 1 cluster randomized controlled trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH using bi-annual community-wide MDA in Benin, India, and Malawi. Our analysis aimed to identify any necessary and/or sufficient combinations of intervention delivery activities (i.e., implementation pathways) that resulted in high MDA coverage. Activities were related to drug supply chain, implementer training, community sensitization strategy, intervention duration, and implementation context. We used pooled implementation data from three sites and six intervention rounds, with study clusters serving as analytical cases (N = 360). Secondary analyses assessed differences in pathways across sites and over intervention rounds.

Results

Across all three sites and six intervention rounds, efficient duration of MDA delivery (within ten days) singularly emerged as a common and fundamental component for achieving high MDA coverage when combined with other particular activities, including a conducive implementation context, early arrival of albendazole before the planned start of MDA, or a flexible community sensitization strategy. No individual activity proved sufficient by itself for producing high MDA coverage. We observed four possible overall models that could explain effective MDA delivery strategies, all which included efficient duration of MDA delivery as an integral component.

Conclusion

Efficient duration of MDA delivery uniquely stood out as a highly influential implementation activity for producing high coverage of community-wide MDA for STH. Effective MDA delivery can be achieved with flexible implementation strategies that include various combinations of influential intervention components.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08080-5.

Modelling the ability of mass drug administration to interrupt soil-transmitted helminth transmission: Community-based deworming in Kenya as a case study

The World Health Organization has recommended the application of mass drug administration (MDA) in treating high prevalence neglected tropical diseases such as soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. MDA—which is safe, effective and inexpensive—has been widely applied to eliminate or interrupt the transmission of STHs in particular and has been offered to people in endemic regions without requiring individual diagnosis. We propose two mathematical models to investigate the impact of MDA on the mean number of worms in both treated and untreated human subpopulations. By varying the efficay of drugs, initial conditions of the models, coverage and frequency of MDA (both annual and biannual), we examine the dynamic behaviour of both models and the possibility of interruption of transmission. Both models predict that the interruption of transmission is possible if the drug efficacy is sufficiently high, but STH infection remains endemic if the drug efficacy is sufficiently low. In between these two critical values, the two models produce different predictions. By applying an additional round of biannual and annual MDA, we find that interruption of transmission is likely to happen in both cases with lower drug efficacy. In order to interrupt the transmission of STH or eliminate the infection efficiently and effectively, it is crucial to identify the appropriate efficacy of drug, coverage, frequency, timing and number of rounds of MDA.

We determine the best options for annual and biannual mass drug administration to control soil-transmitted helminths. An additional round of drugs can allow weaker drugs to be used. We apply the results to a community-based deworming project in Kenya.

The Applications of Implementation Science in Water, Sanitation, and Hygiene (WASH) Research and Practice

BACKGROUND

Delivery of high quality, at-scale, and sustained services is a major challenge in the water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) sector, made more challenging by a dearth of evidence-based models for adaption across contexts in low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to describe the value of implementation science (IS) for the WASH sector and provide recommendations for its application.

METHODS

We review concepts from the growing field of IS-defined as the "scientific study of methods to promote the systematic uptake of research findings and other evidence-based practices into routine practice, and hence, to improve the quality and effectiveness of health services"-and we translate their relevance to WASH research, learning, and delivery.

DISCUSSION

IS provides a suite of methods and theories to systematically develop, evaluate, and scale evidence-based interventions. Though IS thinking has been applied most notably in health services delivery in high-income countries, there have been applications in low-income settings in fields such as HIV/AIDS and nutrition. Expanding the application of IS to environmental health, specifically WASH interventions, would respond to the complexity of sustainable service delivery. WASH researchers may want to consider applying IS guidelines to their work, including adapting pragmatic research models, using established IS frameworks, and cocreating knowledge with local stakeholders. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP7762.

How qPCR complements the WHO roadmap (2021-2030) for soil-transmitted helminths

Complementing the launch of the World Health Organization (WHO) roadmap (2021-2030) we explore key elements needing attention before recruitment of qPCR as the main diagnostics tool to confirm reduction or elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) transmission in both control and elimination programmes. Given the performance limitations of conventional methods, a proposed harmonised qPCR will provide a diagnostic tool, with the sensitivity and specificity required to monitor low-intensity infections, following mass drug administration (MDA). Technical and logistical challenges associated with introducing qPCR as a stand-alone tool are highlighted, and a decision-making scheme on how qPCR can support surveillance, resistance detection, and elimination is presented. An accurate point-of-care (POC) diagnostic test needs to be developed to support STH control in the field, and STH biorepositories need to be established and maintained to ensure that reference materials are available for research and validation.

Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

Background

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization’s (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention, the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and WRA during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost and can be implemented even by the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.

Results

Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12–27% in high transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (< 20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (< 2% moderate- to high-intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population-based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.

Conclusion

While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

Structural Uncertainty in Onchocerciasis Transmission Models Influences the Estimation of Elimination Thresholds and Selection of Age Groups for Seromonitoring

BACKGROUND

The World Health Organization recommends monitoring Onchocerca volvulus Ov16 serology in children aged <10 years for stopping mass ivermectin administration. Transmission models can help to identify the most informative age groups for serological monitoring and investigate the discriminatory power of serology-based elimination thresholds. Model predictions depend on assumed age-exposure patterns and transmission efficiency at low infection levels.

METHODS

The individual-based transmission model, EPIONCHO-IBM, was used to assess (1) the most informative age groups for serological monitoring using receiver operating characteristic curves for different elimination thresholds under various age-dependent exposure assumptions, including those of ONCHOSIM (another widely used model), and (2) the influence of within-human density-dependent parasite establishment (included in EPIONCHO-IBM but not ONCHOSIM) on positive predictive values for different serological thresholds.

RESULTS

When assuming EPIONCHO-IBM exposure patterns, children aged <10 years are the most informative for seromonitoring; when assuming ONCHOSIM exposure patterns, 5-14 year olds are the most informative (as published elsewhere). Omitting density-dependent parasite establishment results in more lenient seroprevalence thresholds, even for higher baseline infection prevalence and shorter treatment durations.

CONCLUSIONS

Selecting appropriate seromonitoring age groups depends critically on age-dependent exposure patterns. The role of density dependence on elimination thresholds largely explains differing EPIONCHO-IBM and ONCHOSIM elimination predictions.

Impact of Different Sampling Schemes for Decision Making in Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis Control Programs

Starting and stopping preventive chemotherapy (PC) for soil-transmitted helminthiasis is typically based on the prevalence of infection as measured by Kato-Katz (KK) fecal smears. Kato-Katz-based egg counts can vary highly over repeated stool samples and smears. Consequentially, the sensitivity of KK-based surveys depends on the number of stool samples per person and the number of smears per sample. Given finite resources, collecting multiple samples and/or smears means screening fewer individuals, thereby lowering the statistical precision of prevalence estimates. Using population-level data from various epidemiological settings, we assessed the performance of different sampling schemes executed within the confines of the same budget. We recommend the use of single-slide KK for determining prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection and policy decisions for starting and continuing PC; more sensitive sampling schemes may be required for policy decisions involving stopping PC. Our findings highlight that guidelines should include specific guidance on sampling schemes.

Soil-transmitted helminths and schistosome infections in Ethiopia: a systematic review of progress in their control over the past 20 years

Background

Ethiopia has set the ambitious national targets of eliminating soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis (SCH) as public health problems by 2020, and breaking their transmission by 2025. This systematic review was performed to provide insight into the progress made by the national STH and SCH control programme purposed with reaching these targets.

Methods

Studies published on STH and SCH in Ethiopia were searched for using Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and the resulting references of selected studies. Prevalence and intensity were analysed, stratified by region, age, and diagnostics.

Results

A total of 231 papers published between 2000 and 2020 were included. Over the past two decades, Trichuris trichiura (TT) infection has shown the most statistically significant decrease (93%, p < 0.0001), followed by Schistosoma mansoni (SM) (69%, p < 0.0001), Ascaris lumbricoides (AL) (67%, p < 0.0001) and Schistosoma haematobium (83%, p = 0.038) infections. Geographically, parasite burden has only consistently shown a significant reduction in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region of Ethiopia, where AL, TT, hookworm and SM significantly decreased by 80% (p = 0.006), 95% (p = 0.005), 98% (p = 0.009) and 87% (p = 0.031), respectively. Prevalence of STH was highest among adults across all species, contrary to typical age-infection profiles for TT and AL that peak among school-aged children. Expanding treatment to the whole community would target reservoirs of adult and preschool-aged infection within the community, assisting Ethiopia in reaching their national transmission break targets. There was substantial heterogeneity in diagnostic methods used across studies, the majority of which predominantly used single-slide Kato–Katz. This low slide frequency provides poor diagnostic sensitivity, particularly in low endemic settings.

Conclusion

The prevalence of STH and SCH in Ethiopia has decreased over time due to the strategic use of anthelmintics. Both standardising and increasing the sensitivity of the diagnostics used, alongside the ubiquitous use of parasite intensity with prevalence, would enable a more accurate and comparable understanding of Ethiopia’s epidemiological progress. Further work is needed on community-wide surveillance in order to understand the burden and subsequent need for treatment among those outside of the standard school-based control program.

Stochastic challenges to interrupting helminth transmission

Predicting the effect of different programmes designed to control both the morbidity induced by helminth infections and parasite transmission is greatly facilitated by the use of mathematical models of transmission and control impact. In such models, it is essential to account for the many sources of uncertainty - natural, or otherwise - to ensure robustness in prediction and to accurately depict variation around an expected outcome. In this paper, we investigate how well the standard deterministic models match the predictions made using individual-based stochastic simulations. We also explore how well concepts which derive from deterministic models, such as 'breakpoints' in transmission, apply in the stochastic world. Employing an individual-based stochastic model framework we also investigate how transmission and control are affected by the migration of infected people into a defined community. To give our study focus we consider the control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) by mass drug administration (MDA), though our methodology is readily applicable to the other helminth species such as the schistosome parasites and the filarial worms. We show it is possible to theoretically define a 'stochastic breakpoint' where much noise surrounds the expected deterministic breakpoint. We also discuss the concept of the 'interruption of transmission' independent of the 'breakpoint' concept where analyses of model behaviour illustrate the current limitations of deterministic models to account for the 'fade-out' or transmission extinction behaviour in simulations. Our analysis of migration confirms a relationship between the critical infected human migration rate scale (i.e., order of magnitude) per unit of time and the death rate of infective stages that are released into the free-living environment. This relationship is shown to determine the likelihood that control activities aim at chemotherapeutic treatment of the human host will eliminate transmission. The development of a new stochastic simulation code for STH in the form of a publicly-available open-source python package which includes features to incorporate many population stratifications, different control interventions including mass drug administration (with defined frequency, coverage levels and compliance patterns) and inter-village human migration is also described.

Forecasting the effectiveness of the DeWorm3 trial in interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths in three study sites in Benin, India and Malawi

Background

The DeWorm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) through mass drug administration (MDA) using study sites in India, Malawi and Benin. In this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of infection to below 2%.

Methods

Our approach is first to define the local patterns of transmission within each study site, which is achieved by statistical inference of key epidemiological parameters using the baseline epidemiological measures of age-related prevalence and intensity of STH infection which have been collected by the DeWorm3 trials team. We use these inferred parameters to calibrate an individual-based stochastic simulation of the trial at the cluster and study site level, which is subsequently run to forecast the future prevalence of STH infections. The simulator takes into account both the uncertainties in parameter estimation and the variability inherent in epidemiological and demographic processes in the simulator. We interpret the forecast results from our simulation with reference to the stated goal of the DeWorm3 trial, to achieve a target of \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\le 2\%$$\end{document}≤2% prevalence at a point 24 months post-cessation of MDA.

Results

Simulated output predicts that the two arms will be distinguishable from each other in all three country sites at the study end point. In India and Malawi, measured prevalence in the intervention arm is below the threshold with a high probability (90% and 95%, respectively), but in Benin the heterogeneity between clusters prevents the arm prevalence from being reduced below the threshold value. At the level of individual study arms within each site, heterogeneity among clusters leads to a very low probability of achieving complete elimination in an intervention arm, yielding a post-study scenario with widespread elimination but a few ‘hot spot’ areas of persisting STH transmission.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that geographical heterogeneities in transmission intensity and worm aggregation have a large impact on the effect of MDA. It is important to accurately assess cluster-level, or even smaller scale, heterogeneities in factors which influence transmission and aggregation for a clearer perspective on projecting the outcomes of MDA control of STH and other neglected tropical diseases.

Estimating the distribution of time to extinction of infectious diseases in mean-field approaches

A key challenge for many infectious diseases is to predict the time to extinction under specific interventions. In general, this question requires the use of stochastic models which recognize the inherent individual-based, chance-driven nature of the dynamics; yet stochastic models are inherently computationally expensive, especially when parameter uncertainty also needs to be incorporated. Deterministic models are often used for prediction as they are more tractable; however, their inability to precisely reach zero infections makes forecasting extinction times problematic. Here, we study the extinction problem in deterministic models with the help of an effective ‘birth–death’ description of infection and recovery processes. We present a practical method to estimate the distribution, and therefore robust means and prediction intervals, of extinction times by calculating their different moments within the birth–death framework. We show that these predictions agree very well with the results of stochastic models by analysing the simplified susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) dynamics as well as studying an example of more complex and realistic dynamics accounting for the infection and control of African sleeping sickness (Trypanosoma brucei gambiense).

Defining a prevalence level to describe the elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis (LF) transmission and designing monitoring & evaluating (M&E) programmes post the cessation of mass drug administration (MDA)

The global decline in prevalence of lymphatic filariasis has been one of the major successes of the WHO's NTD programme. The recommended strategy of intensive, community-wide mass drug administration, aims to break localised transmission by either reducing the prevalence of microfilaria positive infections to below 1%, or antigen positive infections to below 2%. After the threshold is reached, and mass drug administration is stopped, geographically defined evaluation units must pass Transmission Assessment Surveys to demonstrate that transmission has been interrupted. In this study, we use an empirically parameterised stochastic transmission model to investigate the appropriateness of 1% microfilaria-positive prevalence as a stopping threshold, and statistically evaluate how well various monitoring prevalence-thresholds predict elimination or disease resurgence in the future by calculating their predictive value. Our results support the 1% filaremia prevalence target as appropriate stopping criteria. However, because at low prevalence-levels random events dominate the transmission dynamics, we find single prevalence measurements have poor predictive power for predicting resurgence, which suggests alternative criteria for restarting MDA may be beneficial.

The increased sensitivity of qPCR in comparison to Kato-Katz is required for the accurate assessment of the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infection in settings that have received multiple rounds of mass drug administration

Background

The most commonly used diagnostic tool for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) is the Kato-Katz (KK) thick smear technique. However, numerous studies have suggested that the sensitivity of KK can be problematic, especially in low prevalence and low intensity settings. An emerging alternative is quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).

Methods

In this study, both KK and qPCR were conducted on stool samples from 648 participants in an STH epidemiology study conducted in the delta region of Myanmar in June 2016.

Results

Prevalence of any STH was 20.68% by KK and 45.06% by qPCR. Prevalence of each individual STH was also higher by qPCR than KK, the biggest difference was for hookworm with an approximately 4-fold increase between the two diagnostic techniques. Prevalence of Ancylostoma ceylanicum, a parasite predominately found in dogs, was 4.63%, indicating that there is the possibility of zoonotic transmission in the study setting. In individuals with moderate to high intensity infections there is evidence for a linear relationship between eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces, derived from KK, and DNA copy number, derived from qPCR which is particularly strong for Ascaris lumbricoides.

Conclusions

The use of qPCR in low prevalence settings is important to accurately assess the epidemiological situation and plan control strategies for the ‘end game’. However, more work is required to accurately assess STH intensity from qPCR results and to reduce the cost of qPCR so that is widely accessible in STH endemic countries.

Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested. Using 3 well-established mathematical models, we show that low-level prevalence can be maintained for a long period after halting mass treatment and that true elimination (0% prevalence) is usually slow to achieve. The risk of resurgence after achieving current targets is low and is hard to predict using just current prevalence. Although resurgence is often quick (<5 years), it can still occur outside of the currently recommended postintervention surveillance period of 4-6 years. Our results highlight the need for ongoing and enhanced postintervention monitoring, beyond the scope of TAS, to ensure sustained success.

The impact of community-wide, mass drug administration on aggregation of soil-transmitted helminth infection in human host populations

Background

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are intestinal parasites estimated to infect over 1.5 billion people. Current treatment programmes are aimed at morbidity control through school-based deworming programmes (targeting school-aged children, SAC) and treating women of reproductive age (WRA), as these two groups are believed to record the highest morbidity. More recently, however, the potential for interrupting transmission by treating entire communities has been receiving greater emphasis and the feasibility of such programmes are now under investigation in randomised clinical trials through the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation funded DeWorm3 studies. Helminth parasites are known to be highly aggregated within human populations, with a small minority of individuals harbouring most worms. Empirical evidence from the TUMIKIA project in Kenya suggests that aggregation may increase significantly after anthelminthic treatment.

Methods

A stochastic, age-structured, individual-based simulation model of parasite transmission is employed to better understand the factors that might induce this pattern. A simple probabilistic model based on compounded negative binomial distributions caused by age-dependencies in both treatment coverage and exposure to infection is also employed to further this understanding.

Results

Both approaches confirm helminth aggregation is likely to increase post-mass drug administration as measured by a decrease in the value of the negative binomial aggregation parameter, k. Simple analytical models of distribution compounding describe the observed patterns well.

Conclusions

The helminth aggregation that was observed in the field was replicated with our stochastic individual-based model. Further work is required to generalise the probabilistic model to take account of the respective sensitivities of different diagnostics on the presence or absence of infection.

Designing antifilarial drug trials using clinical trial simulators

Lymphatic filariasis and onchocerciasis are neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) targeted for elimination by mass (antifilarial) drug administration. These drugs are predominantly active against the microfilarial progeny of adult worms. New drugs or combinations are needed to improve patient therapy and to enhance the effectiveness of interventions in persistent hotspots of transmission. Several therapies and regimens are currently in (pre-)clinical testing. Clinical trial simulators (CTSs) project patient outcomes to inform the design of clinical trials but have not been widely applied to NTDs, where their resource-saving payoffs could be highly beneficial. We demonstrate the utility of CTSs using our individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model (EPIONCHO-IBM) that projects trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug. We identify key design decisions that influence the power of clinical trials, including participant eligibility criteria and post-treatment follow-up times for measuring infection indicators. We discuss how CTSs help to inform target product profiles.

Drugs for filariases are under development and clinical trial simulators could help to inform the design of clinical trials. Here, Walker et al. use an individual-based onchocerciasis transmission model to project trial outcomes of a hypothetical macrofilaricidal drug, resolving key design choices.

Programmatic implications of the TUMIKIA trial on community-wide treatment for soil-transmitted helminths: further health economic analyses needed before a change in policy

School-based deworming programmes are currently the main approach used to control the soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). A key unanswered policy question is whether mass drug administration (MDA) should be targeted to the whole community instead, and several trials in this area have been conducted or are currently on-going. A recent well-conducted trial demonstrated that successful community-wide treatment is a feasible strategy for STH control and can be more effective than school-based treatment in reducing prevalence and intensity of hookworm infection. However, we would argue that it is vital that these findings are not taken out of context or over generalised, as the additional health benefits gained from switching to community-wide treatment will vary depending on the STH species and baseline endemicity. Moreover, community-wide treatment will typically be more expensive than school-based treatment. The epidemiological evidence for an additional benefit from a switch to community-wide treatment has yet to be proven to represent “good value for money” across different settings. Further work is needed before changes in policy are made regarding the use of community-wide treatment for STH control, including comprehensive assessments of its additional public health benefits and costs across a range of scenarios, accounting for the presence of alternative treatment delivery platforms.

What does soil-transmitted helminth elimination look like? Results from a targeted molecular detection survey in Japan

BACKGROUND

Japan is one of the few countries believed to have eliminated soil-transmitted helminths (STHs). In 1949, the national prevalence of Ascaris lumbricoides was 62.9%, which decreased to 0.6% in 1973 due to improvements in infrastructure, socioeconomic status, and the implementation of national STH control measures. The Parasitosis Prevention Law ended in 1994 and population-level screening ceased in Japan; therefore, current transmission status of STH in Japan is not well characterized. Sporadic cases of STH infections continue to be reported, raising the possibility of a larger-scale recrudescence of STH infections. Given that traditional microscopic detection methods are not sensitive to low-intensity STH infections, we conducted targeted prevalence surveys using sensitive PCR-based assays to evaluate the current STH-transmission status and to describe epidemiological characteristics of areas of Japan believed to have achieved historical elimination of STHs.

METHODS

Stool samples were collected from 682 preschool- and school-aged children from six localities of Japan with previously high prevalence of STH. Caregivers of participants completed a questionnaire to ascertain access to water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), and potential exposures to environmental contamination. For fecal testing, multi-parallel real-time PCR assays were used to detect infections of Ascaris lumbricoides, Necator americanus, Ancylostoma duodenale and Trichuris trichiura.

RESULTS

Among the 682 children, no positive samples were identified, and participants reported high standards of WASH.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first STH-surveillance study in Japan to use sensitive molecular techniques for STH detection. The results suggest that recrudescence of STH infections has not occurred, and that declines in prevalence have been sustained in the sampled areas. These findings suggest that reductions in prevalence below the elimination thresholds, suggestive of transmission interruption, are possible. Additionally, this study provides circumstantial evidence that multi-parallel real-time PCR methods are applicable for evaluating elimination status in areas where STH prevalence is extremely low.

The 'breakpoint' of soil-transmitted helminths with infected human migration

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Novel analytic understanding of STH transmission dynamics near the breakpoint.

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New models of infected human migration are developed and analysed.

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An approximate Markovian process description is shown to describe migration well.

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Migration rates greater than the death rate of infectious stages are critical.

Building on past research, we here develop an analytic framework for describing the dynamics of the transmission of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) parasitic infections near the transmission breakpoint and equilibria of endemic infection and disease extinction, while allowing for perturbations in the infectious reservoir of the parasite within a defined location. This perturbation provides a model for the effect of infected human movement between villages with differing degrees of parasite control induced by mass drug administration (MDA). Analysing the dynamical behaviour around the unstable equilibrium, known as the transmission ‘breakpoint’, we illustrate how slowly-varying the dynamics are and develop an understanding of how discrete ‘pulses’ in the release of transmission stages (eggs or larvae, depending on the species of STH), due to infected human migration between villages, can lead to perturbations in the deterministic transmission dynamics. Such perturbations are found to have the potential to undermine targets for parasite elimination as a result of MDA and/or improvements in water and sanitation provision. We extend our analysis by developing a simple stochastic model and analytically investigate the uncertainty this induces in the dynamics. Where appropriate, all analytical results are supported by numerical analyses.

Investigating the Effectiveness of Current and Modified World Health Organization Guidelines for the Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections

Background

Considerable efforts have been made to better understand the effectiveness of large-scale preventive chemotherapy therapy for the control of morbidity caused by infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs): Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and the 2 hookworm species, Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for STH control include mass drug administration (MDA) programs based on prevalence measurements, aiming at reducing morbidity in pre–school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) by lowering the prevalence of moderate- to heavy-intensity infections to <1%.

Methods

We project the likely impact of following the current WHO guidelines and assess whether the WHO morbidity goals will be achieved across a range of transmission settings. We also investigate modifications that could be made to the current WHO treatment guidelines, and project their potential impacts in achieving morbidity and transmission control.

Results

While the standard guidelines are sufficient at low transmission levels, community-wide treatment (ie, involving pre-SAC, SAC, and adults) is essential if WHO morbidity goals are to be met in moderate- to high-transmission settings. Moreover, removing the recommendation of decreasing the treatment frequency at midline (5–6 years after the start of MDA) further improves the likelihood of achieving morbidity control in SAC.

Conclusions

We meld analyses based on 2 mathematical models of parasite transmission and control by MDA for the dominant STH species, to generate a unified treatment approach applicable across all settings, regardless of which STH infection is most common. We recommend clearly defined changes to the current WHO guidelines.

The Geshiyaro Project: a study protocol for developing a scalable model of interventions for moving towards the interruption of the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths and schistosome infections in the Wolaita zone of Ethiopia

Background

National deworming programmes rely almost exclusively on mass drug administration (MDA) to children to control morbidity caused by these parasitic infections. The provision of other interventions, consisting of preventive chemotherapy at high population level coverage together with water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) and changes in risk behaviour, should enable sustainable control of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and schistosomiasis and ultimately interrupt transmission.

Methods/Design

Two interventions will be implemented by the project: (i) community-wide biannual albendazole and annual praziquantel treatment with a target of 80–90% treatment coverage (“expanded MDA”); and (ii) provision of WaSH with behaviour change communication (BCC), within the Wolaita zone, Ethiopia. The project has three study arms: (i) expanded community-wide MDA, WaSH and BCC; (ii) expanded community-wide MDA only; and (iii) annual school-based MDA (the current National STH/schistosomiasis Control Programme). The impact of these interventions will be evaluated through prevalence mapping at baseline and endline (after four rounds of MDA), combined with annual longitudinal parasitological surveillance in defined cohorts of people to monitor trends in prevalence and reinfection throughout the project. Treatment coverage and individual compliance to treatment will be monitored by employing fingerprint biometric technology and barcoded identification cards at treatment. WaSH utilisation will be evaluated through school and household level observations and annual WaSH assessment survey. Complementary qualitative surveys will explore practices, cultural and social drivers of risk behaviours, uptake of WaSH and treatment, and assessing the impact of the BCC.

Discussion

The study has the potential to define an ‘End Game’ for STH and schistosomiasis programmes through provision of multiple interventions. Interrupting transmission of these infections would eliminate the need for long-term repeated MDA, lead to sustained health improvements in children and adults, thereby allowing health systems to focus on other disease control priorities.

A Case for Using Genomics and a Bioinformatics Pipeline to Develop Sensitive and Species-Specific PCR-Based Diagnostics for Soil-Transmitted Helminths

The balance of expense and ease of use vs. specificity and sensitivity in diagnostic assays for helminth disease is an important consideration, with expense and ease often winning out in endemic areas where funds and sophisticated equipment may be scarce. In this review, we argue that molecular diagnostics, specifically new assays that have been developed with the aid of next-generation sequence data and robust bioinformatic tools, more than make up for their expense with the benefit of a clear and precise assessment of the situation on the ground. Elimination efforts associated with the London Declaration and the World Health Organization (WHO) 2020 Roadmap have resulted in areas of low disease incidence and reduced infection burdens. An accurate assessment of infection levels is critical for determining where and when the programs can be successfully ended. Thus, more sensitive assays are needed in locations where elimination efforts are approaching a successful conclusion. Although microscopy or more general PCR targets have a role to play, they can mislead and cause study results to be confounded. Hyper-specific qPCR assays enable a more definitive assessment of the situation in the field, as well as of shifting dynamics and emerging diseases.

A cluster-randomised controlled trial comparing school and community-based deworming for soil transmitted helminth control in school-age children: the CoDe-STH trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines and targets for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on school-based deworming for school-age children, given the high risk of associated morbidity in this age group. However, expanding deworming to all age groups may achieve improved STH control among both the community in general and school-age children, by reducing their risk of reinfection. This trial aims to compare school-based targeted deworming with community-wide mass deworming in terms of impact on STH infections among school-age children.

METHODS

The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 64 primary schools in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. The control arm will receive one round of school-based targeted deworming with albendazole, while in the intervention arm, community-wide mass deworming with albendazole will be implemented alongside school-based deworming. Prevalence of STH infections will be measured in school-age children at baseline and 12 months following deworming. The primary outcome is hookworm prevalence in school-age children at 12 months, by quantitative PCR. Analysis will be intention-to-treat, with outcomes compared between study arms using generalised linear and non-linear mixed models. Additionally, cost-effectiveness of mass and targeted deworming will be calculated and compared, and focus group discussions and interviews will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of deworming approaches. Individual based stochastic models will be used to predict the impact of mass and targeted deworming strategies beyond the RCT timeframe to assess the likelihood of parasite population 'bounce-back' if deworming is ceased due to low STH prevalence.

DISCUSSION

The first large-scale trial comparing mass and targeted deworming for STH control in South East Asia will provide key information for policy makers regarding the optimal design of STH control programs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12619000309189 .

Human population movement can impede the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth transmission in regions with heterogeneity in mass drug administration coverage and transmission potential between villages: a metapopulation analysis

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections affect predominantly socio-economically disadvantaged populations in sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Americas. Previous mathematical modelling studies have evaluated optimal intervention strategies to break STH transmission in clusters of villages. These studies assumed that villages are closed independent units with no movement of people in or out of communities. Here we examine how human population movement, for example, of seasonal migrant labourers, affect the outcome of mass drug administration (MDA) programmes.

RESULTS

We used a stochastic individual-based metapopulation model to analyse the impact of human population movement at varying rates on STH elimination efforts. Specifically, we looked at seasonal clumped movement events of infected individuals into a village. We showed that even if on average 75% of the entire resident population within a village are treated, an annual rate of 2-3% of the population arriving from an untreated source village can reduce the probability of STH elimination to less than 50% in high-prevalence settings. If a village is infection-free, an annual movement rate of 2-3% from an infected source village imposes a risk of re-introduction of STH of 75% or higher, unless the prevalence in the source village is less than 20%. Even a single arrival of 2-3% of the population can impose a risk of re-introducing STH of 50% or greater depending on the prevalence in the source village. The risk of re-introduction also depends on both the age group of moving individuals and STH species, since the pattern of cross-sectional age-prevalence and age-intensity profiles of infection in the human host are species-specific.

CONCLUSIONS

Planning for STH elimination programmes should account for human mobility patterns in defined regions. We recommend that individuals arriving from areas with ongoing STH transmission should receive preventive chemotherapy for STHs. This can most easily be implemented if migration is seasonal and overlaps with treatment rounds, e.g. seasonal migrant labour. Moreover, transmission hotspots in or near treatment clusters should be eliminated, for example, by implementing appropriate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) measures and targeting treatment to individuals living in hotspots.

Determining post-treatment surveillance criteria for predicting the elimination of Schistosoma mansoni transmission

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination (interruption of transmission) as an end goal for schistosomiasis. However, there is currently little guidance on the monitoring and evaluation strategy required once very low prevalence levels have been reached to determine whether elimination or resurgence of the disease will occur after stopping mass drug administration (MDA) treatment.

Methods

We employ a stochastic individual-based model of Schistosoma mansoni transmission and MDA impact to determine a prevalence threshold, i.e. prevalence of infection, which can be used to determine whether elimination or resurgence will occur after stopping treatment with a given probability. Simulations are run for treatment programmes with varying probabilities of achieving elimination and for settings where adults harbour low to high burdens of infection. Prevalence is measured based on using a single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual. We calculate positive predictive values (PPV) using PPV ≥ 0.9 as a reliable measure corresponding to ≥ 90% certainty of elimination. We analyse when post-treatment surveillance should be carried out to predict elimination. We also determine the number of individuals across a single community (of 500–1000 individuals) that should be sampled to predict elimination.

Results

We find that a prevalence threshold of 1% by single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual is optimal for predicting elimination at two years (or later) after the last round of MDA using a sample size of 200 individuals across the entire community (from all ages). This holds regardless of whether the adults have a low or high burden of infection relative to school-aged children.

Conclusions

Using a prevalence threshold of 0.5% is sufficient for surveillance six months after the last round of MDA. However, as such a low prevalence can be difficult to measure in the field using Kato-Katz, we recommend using 1% two years after the last round of MDA. Higher prevalence thresholds of 2% or 5% can be used but require waiting over four years for post-treatment surveillance. Although, for treatment programmes where elimination is highly likely, these higher thresholds could be used sooner. Additionally, switching to more sensitive diagnostic techniques, will allow for a higher prevalence threshold to be employed.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s13071-019-3611-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evaluating the Evidence for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination

In the global drive for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF), 15 countries have achieved validation of elimination as a public health problem (EPHP). Recent empirical evidence has demonstrated that EPHP does not always lead to elimination of transmission (EOT). Here we show how the probability of elimination explicitly depends on key biological parameters, many of which have been poorly characterized, leading to a poor evidence base for the elimination threshold. As more countries progress towards EPHP it is essential that this process is well-informed, as prematurely halting treatment and surveillance programs could pose a serious threat to global progress. We highlight that refinement of the weak empirical evidence base is vital to understand drivers of elimination and inform long-term policy.

Diagnostic performance of a single and duplicate Kato-Katz, Mini-FLOTAC, FECPAKG2 and qPCR for the detection and quantification of soil-transmitted helminths in three endemic countries

Background

Because the success of deworming programs targeting soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is evaluated through the periodically assessment of prevalence and infection intensities, the use of the correct diagnostic method is of utmost importance. The STH community has recently published for each phase of a deworming program the minimal criteria that a potential diagnostic method needs to meet, the so-called target product profiles (TPPs).

Methodology

We compared the diagnostic performance of a single Kato-Katz (reference method) with that of other microscopy-based methods (duplicate Kato-Katz, Mini-FLOTAC and FECPAK^G2) and one DNA-based method (qPCR) for the detection and quantification of STH infections in three drug efficacy trials in Ethiopia, Lao PDR, and Tanzania. Furthermore, we evaluated a selection of minimal diagnostic criteria of the TPPs.

Principal findings

All diagnostic methods showed a clinical sensitivity of ≥90% for all STH infections of moderate-to-heavy intensities. For infections of very low intensity, only qPCR resulted in a sensitivity that was superior to a single Kato-Katz for all STHs. Compared to the reference method, both Mini-FLOTAC and FECPAK^G2 resulted in significantly lower fecal egg counts for some STHs, leading to a substantial underestimation of the infection intensity. For qPCR, there was a positive significant correlation between the egg counts of a single Kato-Katz and the DNA concentration.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results indicate that the diagnostic performance of a single Kato-Katz is underestimated by the community and that diagnostic specific thresholds to classify intensity of infection are warranted for Mini-FLOTAC, FECPAK^G2 and qPCR. When we strictly apply the TPPs, Kato-Katz is the only microscopy-based method that meets the minimal diagnostic criteria for application in the planning, monitoring and evaluation phase of an STH program. qPCR is the only method that could be considered in the phase that aims to seek confirmation for cessation of program.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03465488

To control the burden caused by intestinal worms, the World Health Organization recommends large-scale deworming programs where anti-worm drugs are administered to at-risk populations. The decision to scale down drug distribution is based on the periodically assessment of prevalence and intensity of infections using a standard diagnostic method. Today, the scientific community strongly doubts whether this method can be used throughout the program. This is in particular when it fails to detect infections of low intensity, and hence may result in prematurely stopping the distribution of drugs. We compared the diagnostic performance of alternative diagnostic methods in three drug efficacy trials in two African and one Asian country. The diagnostic methods were based on demonstration of worm eggs or worm DNA in stool. We also checked the results with minimal diagnostic criteria which have been recently been proposed by the scientific community. Our results indicate that of all diagnostic methods based on demonstration of worm eggs, only the current standard method fulfills the diagnostic criteria for planning, monitoring and evaluation phases of deworming program. Furthermore, we showed that DNA-based methods could be considered in the phase that aims to seek confirmation for cessation of the deworming program.

Quantitative PCR-Based Diagnosis of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections: Faecal or Fickle?

Treatment and control programmes tackling soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections require sensitive, reliable, and accurate diagnostic tools. There is a growing need for measures of infection intensity as programmes approach STH control. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) is well suited to the detection of DNA targets present in stool, even in low-prevalence settings. Detecting low levels of infection becomes increasingly important when the breakpoint of transmission is approached, and is vital when monitoring for recrudescence once control, or possibly 'elimination', is achieved. We address key challenges and questions that remain as barriers to incorporating qPCR as a cornerstone diagnostic tool for STH infections.

Calculating the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infection through pooling of stool samples: Choosing and optimizing the pooling strategy

Prevalence is a common epidemiological measure for assessing soil-transmitted helminth burden and forms the basis for much public-health decision-making. Standard diagnostic techniques are based on egg detection in stool samples through microscopy and these techniques are known to have poor sensitivity for individuals with low infection intensity, leading to poor sensitivity in low prevalence populations. PCR diagnostic techniques offer very high sensitivities even at low prevalence, but at a greater cost for each diagnostic test in terms of equipment needed and technician time and training. Pooling of samples can allow prevalence to be estimated while minimizing the number of tests performed. We develop a model of the relative cost of pooling to estimate prevalence, compared to the direct approach of testing all samples individually. Analysis shows how expected relative cost depends on both the underlying prevalence in the population and the size of the pools constructed. A critical prevalence level (approx. 31%) above which pooling is never cost effective, independent of pool size. When no prevalence information is available, there is no basis on which to choose between pooling and testing all samples individually. We recast our model of relative cost in a Bayesian framework in order to investigate how prior information about prevalence in a given population can be used to inform the decision to choose either pooling or full testing. Results suggest that if prevalence is below 10%, a relatively small exploratory prevalence survey (10-15 samples) can be sufficient to give a high degree of certainty that pooling may be relatively cost effective.

Soil-transmitted helminth reinfection four and six months after mass drug administration: results from the delta region of Myanmar

BACKGROUND

Mass drug administration (MDA), targeted at school-aged children (SAC) is the method recommended by the World Health Organization for the control of morbidity induced by soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection in endemic countries. However, MDA does not prevent reinfection between treatment rounds and research suggests that only treating SAC will not be sufficient to bring prevalence to low levels and possibly interrupt transmission of STH. In countries with endemic infection, such as Myanmar, the coverage, who is targeted, and rates of reinfection will determine how effective MDA is in suppressing transmission in the long-term.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

In this paper, data from an epidemiological study on STH, comprising three surveys conducted between June 2015 and June 2016 in the delta region of Myanmar, are analysed to determine how STH prevalence and intensity in the study community changes over the course of a year, including reinfection after two MDA rounds in which the whole study sample (all age groups, n = 523) were treated with albendazole. Prevalence in the first survey (August 2015) was 27.92% for any STH, 5.54% for Ascaris lumbricoides, 17.02% for Trichuris trichiura and 9.75% for hookworm. Over the year (survey one to survey three), prevalence of any STH decreased by 8.99% (P < 0.001) and mean EPG significantly decreased for T. trichiura (P < 0.01) and hookworm (P < 0.001). Risk ratios (RRs) for a four-month reinfection period (August to December) were statistically significant and were below one, indicating that STH prevalence had not bounced back to the prevalence levels recorded immediately prior to the last round of treatment (any STH RR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.56-0.81; A. lumbricoides RR = 0.31, 95% CI 0.16-0.59; T. trichiura RR = 0.70, 95% CI 0.55-0.88; hookworm RR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.50-0.95). The only statistically significant RR for the six-month reinfection period (December to June) was for A. lumbricoides infection in SAC (RR = 2.67, 95% CI 1.37-5.21). All six-month RRs were significantly higher than four-month RRs (P < 0.05). Evidence of predisposition to infection (low and high), as measured by the Kendall Tau-b statistic, was found for all species overall and within most age groups stratifications, except for hookworm infection in preschool-aged children.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study demonstrates that, for certain demographic groups, a six-month gap between MDA in these communities is enough time for STH infection to return to STH prevalence levels recorded immediately before the previous MDA round, and that on average the same individuals are being consistently infected between MDA rounds.

Estimating the elimination feasibility in the 'end game' of control efforts for parasites subjected to regular mass drug administration: Methods and their application to schistosomiasis

Progress towards controlling and eliminating parasitic worms, including schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and lymphatic filariasis, is advancing rapidly as national governments, multinational NGOs, and pharmaceutical companies launch collaborative chemotherapeutic control campaigns. Critical questions remain regarding the potential for achieving elimination of these infections, and analytical methods can help to quickly estimate progress towards-and the probability of achieving-elimination over specific timeframes. Here, we propose the effective reproduction number, Reff, as a proxy of elimination potential for sexually reproducing worms that are subject to poor mating success at very low abundance (positive density dependence, or Allee effects). Reff is the number of parasites produced by a single reproductive parasite at a given stage in the transmission cycle, over the parasite's lifetime-it is the generalized form of the more familiar basic reproduction number, R0, which only applies at the beginning of an epidemic-and it can be estimated in a 'model-free' manner by an estimator ('ε'). We introduce ε, demonstrate its estimation using simulated data, and discuss how it may be used in planning and evaluation of ongoing elimination efforts for a range of parasitic diseases.

Defining stopping criteria for ending randomized clinical trials that investigate the interruption of transmission of soil-transmitted helminths employing mass drug administration

The current World Health Organization strategy to address soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in children is based on morbidity control through routine deworming of school and pre-school aged children. However, given that transmission continues to occur as a result of persistent reservoirs of infection in untreated individuals (including adults) and in the environment, in many settings such a strategy will need to be continued for very extended periods of time, or until social, economic and environmental conditions result in interruption of transmission. As a result, there is currently much discussion surrounding the possibility of accelerating the interruption of transmission using alternative strategies of mass drug administration (MDA). However, the feasibility of achieving transmission interruption using MDA remains uncertain due to challenges in sustaining high MDA coverage levels across entire communities. The DeWorm3 trial, designed to test the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission, is currently ongoing. In DeWorm3, three years of high treatment coverage-indicated by mathematical models as necessary for breaking transmission-will be followed by two years of surveillance. Given the fast reinfection (bounce-back) rates of STH, a two year no treatment period is regarded as adequate to assess whether bounce-back or transmission interruption have occurred in a given location. In this study, we investigate if criteria to determine whether transmission interruption is unlikely can be defined at earlier timepoints. A stochastic, individual-based simulation model is employed to simulate core aspects of the DeWorm3 community-based cluster-randomized trial. This trial compares a control arm (annual treatment of children alone with MDA) with an intervention arm (community-wide biannual treatment with MDA). Simulations were run for each scenario for both Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm (Necator americanus). A range of threshold prevalences measured at six months after the last round of MDA and the impact of MDA coverage levels were evaluated to see if the likelihood of bounce-back or elimination could reliably be assessed at that point, rather than after two years of subsequent surveillance. The analyses suggest that all clusters should be assessed for transmission interruption after two years of surveillance, unless transmission interruption can be effectively ruled out through evidence of low treatment coverage. Models suggest a tight range of homogenous prevalence estimates following high coverage MDA across clusters which do not allow for discrimination between bounce back or transmission interruption within 24 months following cessation of MDA.

Prospects for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths

Purpose of review

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are endemic in 120 countries and are associated with substantial morbidity and loss of economic productivity. Although current WHO guidelines focus on morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA), there is global interest in whether a strategy targeting disease elimination might be feasible in some settings. This review summarizes the prospects for switching from control to an elimination strategy.

Recent findings

STH control efforts have reduced the intensity of infections in targeted populations with associated reductions in morbidity. However, adults are not frequently targeted and remain important reservoirs for reinfection of treated children. Recent modeling suggests that transmission interruption may be possible through expanded community-wide delivery of MDA, the feasibility of which has been demonstrated by other programs. However, these models suggest that high levels of coverage and compliance must be achieved. Potential challenges include the risk of prematurely dismantling STH programs and the potential increased risk of antihelminthic resistance.

Summary

Elimination of STH may offer an opportunity to eliminate substantial STH-related morbidity while reducing resource needs of neglected tropical disease programs. Evidence from large community trials is needed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH in some geographic settings.

Assessing the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths through mass drug administration: The DeWorm3 cluster randomized trial protocol

Current control strategies for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) emphasize morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA) targeting preschool- and school-age children, women of childbearing age and adults in certain high-risk occupations such as agricultural laborers or miners. This strategy is effective at reducing morbidity in those treated but, without massive economic development, it is unlikely it will interrupt transmission. MDA will therefore need to continue indefinitely to maintain benefit. Mathematical models suggest that transmission interruption may be achievable through MDA alone, provided that all age groups are targeted with high coverage. The DeWorm3 Project will test the feasibility of interrupting STH transmission using biannual MDA targeting all age groups. Study sites (population ≥80,000) have been identified in Benin, Malawi and India. Each site will be divided into 40 clusters, to be randomized 1:1 to three years of twice-annual community-wide MDA or standard-of-care MDA, typically annual school-based deworming. Community-wide MDA will be delivered door-to-door, while standard-of-care MDA will be delivered according to national guidelines. The primary outcome is transmission interruption of the STH species present at each site, defined as weighted cluster-level prevalence ≤2% by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), 24 months after the final round of MDA. Secondary outcomes include the endline prevalence of STH, overall and by species, and the endline prevalence of STH among children under five as an indicator of incident infections. Secondary analyses will identify cluster-level factors associated with transmission interruption. Prevalence will be assessed using qPCR of stool samples collected from a random sample of cluster residents at baseline, six months after the final round of MDA and 24 months post-MDA. A smaller number of individuals in each cluster will be followed with annual sampling to monitor trends in prevalence and reinfection throughout the trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03014167.

Testing for soil-transmitted helminth transmission elimination: Analysing the impact of the sensitivity of different diagnostic tools

In recent years, an increased focus has been placed upon the possibility of the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) transmission using various interventions including mass drug administration. The primary diagnostic tool recommended by the WHO is the detection of STH eggs in stool using the Kato-Katz (KK) method. However, detecting infected individuals using this method becomes increasingly difficult as the intensity of infection decreases. Newer techniques, such as qPCR, have been shown to have greater sensitivity than KK, especially at low prevalence. However, the impact of using qPCR on elimination thresholds is yet to be investigated. In this paper, we aim to quantify how the sensitivity of these two diagnostic tools affects the optimal prevalence threshold at which to declare the interruption of transmission with a defined level of confidence. A stochastic, individual-based STH transmission model was used in this study to simulate the transmission dynamics of Ascaris and hookworm. Data from a Kenyan deworming study were used to parameterize the diagnostic model which was based on egg detection probabilities. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were calculated to assess the quality of any given threshold, with the optimal threshold value taken to be that at which both were maximised. The threshold prevalence of infection values for declaring elimination of Ascaris transmission were 6% and 12% for KK and qPCR respectively. For hookworm, these threshold values are lower at 0.5% and 2% respectively. Diagnostic tests with greater sensitivity are becoming increasingly important as we approach the elimination of STH transmission in some regions of the world. For declaring the elimination of transmission, using qPCR to diagnose STH infection results in the definition of a higher prevalence, than when KK is used.

The past matters: estimating intrinsic hookworm transmission intensity in areas with past mass drug administration to control lymphatic filariasis

BACKGROUND

Current WHO guidelines for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on mass drug administration (MDA) targeting preschool-aged (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC), with the goal of eliminating STH as a public health problem amongst children. Recently, attention and funding has turned towards the question whether MDA alone can result in the interruption of transmission for STH. The lymphatic filariasis (LF) elimination programme, have been successful in reaching whole communities. There is the possibility of building upon the infrastructure created for these LF-programmes to enhance the control of STH. Using hookworm as an example, we explore what further MDA coverage might be required to induce interruption of transmission for hookworm in the wake of a successful LF programme.

RESULTS

Analyses based on the model of STH transmission and MDA impact predict the effects of previous LF control by MDA over five years, on a defined baseline prevalence of STH in an area with a defined transmission intensity (the basic reproductive number R0). If the LF MDA programme achieved a high coverage (70, 70 and 60% for pre-SAC, SAC and adults, respectively) we expect that in communities with a hookworm prevalence of 15%, after 5 years of LF control, the intrinsic R0 value in that setting is 2.47. By contrast, if lower LF coverages were achieved (40, 40 and 30% for pre-SAC, SAC and adults, respectively), with the same prevalence of 15% at baseline (after 5 years of LF MDA), the intrinsic hookworm R0 value is predicted to be 1.67. The intrinsic R0 value has a large effect on the expected successes of follow-up STH programmes post LF MDA. Consequently, the outcomes of identical programmes may differ between these communities.

CONCLUSION

To design the optimal MDA intervention to eliminate STH infections, it is vital to have information on historical MDA programmes and baseline prevalence to estimate the intrinsic transmission intensity for the defined setting (R0). The baseline prevalence alone is not sufficient to inform policy for the control of STH, post cessation of LF MDA, since this will be highly dependent on the intensity and effectiveness of past programmes and the intrinsic transmission intensity of the dominant STH species in any given setting.

Assessing the interruption of the transmission of human helminths with mass drug administration alone: optimizing the design of cluster randomized trials

BACKGROUND

A method is outlined for the use of an individual-based stochastic model of parasite transmission dynamics to assess different designs for a cluster randomized trial in which mass drug administration (MDA) is employed in attempts to eliminate the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths (STH) in defined geographic locations. The hypothesis to be tested is: Can MDA alone interrupt the transmission of STH species in defined settings? Clustering is at a village level and the choice of clusters of villages is stratified by transmission intensity (low, medium and high) and parasite species mix (either Ascaris, Trichuris or hookworm dominant).

RESULTS

The methodological approach first uses an age-structured deterministic model to predict the MDA coverage required for treating pre-school aged children (Pre-SAC), school aged children (SAC) and adults (Adults) to eliminate transmission (crossing the breakpoint in transmission created by sexual mating in dioecious helminths) with 3 rounds of annual MDA. Stochastic individual-based models are then used to calculate the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV, respectively, for observing elimination or the bounce back of infection) for a defined prevalence of infection 2 years post the cessation of MDA. For the arm only involving the treatment of Pre-SAC and SAC, the failure rate is predicted to be very high (particularly for hookworm-infected villages) unless transmission intensity is very low (R0, or the effective reproductive number R, just above unity in value).

CONCLUSIONS

The calculations are designed to consider various trial arms and stratifications; namely, community-based treatment and Pre-SAC and SAC only treatment (the two arms of the trial), different STH transmission settings of low, medium and high, and different STH species mixes. Results are considered in the light of the complications introduced by the choice of statistic to define success or failure, varying adherence to treatment, migration and parameter uncertainty.