Derivation and internal validation of a multi-biomarker-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction score for rheumatoid arthritis patients

Higher levels of markers for early atherosclerosis in anti-citrullinated protein antibodies positive individuals at risk for RA, a cross sectional study

OBJECTIVE

To identify differences in levels of serum biomarkers associated with atherosclerosis between anti-citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA) positive groups.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data were used from the Dutch Lifelines Cohort Study combined with data derived from RA risk and early RA studies conducted at the University Medical Center Groningen (UMCG). Serum biomarkers of inflammation, endothelial cell activation, tissue remodeling and adipokine, which were previously associated with atherosclerosis, were measured with Luminex in four ACPA positive groups with different characteristics: without joint complaints, with joint complaints, RA risk and early RA groups.

RESULTS

Levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), Interleukin-6 (IL-6), Tumor Necrosis Factor Receptor 1 (TNFR1) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) were significantly higher in the RA risk and early RA groups compared to the joint complaints and the no joint complaints groups. The difference remained statistically significant after correcting for renal function, smoking and hypertension in multivariate logistic regression analysis, with focus on ACPA positive with joint complaints group versus RA risk group: CRP OR = 2.67, p = 0.033; IL-6 OR = 3.73, p = 0.019; TNFR1 OR = 1.003, p < 0.001; VGEF OR = 8.59, p = 0.019.

CONCLUSION

Individuals at risk for RA have higher levels of inflammatory markers and VEGF, which suggests that they might also have a risk of higher cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, this does not apply to individuals with ACPA positivity with self-reported joint complaints or without joint complaints only. Therefore, it is important that individuals with RA risk are referred to a rheumatologist to rule in or out arthritis/development of RA and discuss CVD risk.

Anti-apolipoprotein A-1 IgG, incident cardiovascular events, and lipid paradox in rheumatoid arthritis

Objective

To validate the prognostic accuracy of anti-apolipoprotein A-1 (AAA1) IgG for incident major adverse cardiovascular (CV) events (MACE) in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and study their associations with the lipid paradox at a multicentric scale.

Method

Baseline AAA1 IgG, lipid profile, atherogenic indexes, and cardiac biomarkers were measured on the serum of 1,472 patients with RA included in the prospective Swiss Clinical Quality Management registry with a median follow-up duration of 4.4 years. MACE was the primary endpoint defined as CV death, incident fatal or non-fatal stroke, or myocardial infarction (MI), while elective coronary revascularization (ECR) was the secondary endpoint. Discriminant accuracy and incidence rate ratios (IRR) were respectively assessed using C-statistics and Poisson regression models.

Results

During follow-up, 2.4% (35/1,472) of patients had a MACE, consisting of 6 CV deaths, 11 MIs, and 18 strokes; ECR occurred in 2.1% (31/1,472) of patients. C-statistics indicated that AAA1 had a significant discriminant accuracy for incident MACE [C-statistics: 0.60, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.57-0.98, p = 0.03], mostly driven by CV deaths (C-statistics: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.57-0.98, p = 0.01). IRR indicated that each unit of AAA1 IgG increase was associated with a fivefold incident CV death rate, independent of models' adjustments. At the predefined and validated cut-off, AAA1 displayed negative predictive values above 97% for MACE. AAA1 inversely correlated with total and HDL cholesterol.

Conclusions

AAA1 independently predicts CV deaths, and marginally MACE in RA. Further investigations are requested to ascertain whether AAA1 could enhance CV risk stratification by identifying patients with RA at low CV risk.

External validation of a multi-biomarker-based score for predicting risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

BACKGROUND

A multi-biomarker disease activity (MBDA)-based cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score was developed and internally validated in a Medicare cohort to predict 3-year risk for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke or CVD death in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). It combines the MBDA score, leptin, MMP-3, TNF-R1, age and four clinical variables. We are now externally validating it in a younger RA cohort.

METHODS

Claims data from a private aggregator were linked to MBDA test data to create a cohort of RA patients ≥18 years old. A univariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fit using the MBDA-based CVD risk score as sole predictor of time-to-a-CVD event (hospitalized MI or stroke). Hazard ratio (HR) estimate was determined for all patients and for clinically relevant subgroups. A multivariable Cox model evaluated whether the MBDA-based CVD risk score adds predictive information to clinical data.

RESULTS

49,028 RA patients (340 CVD events) were studied. Mean age was 52.3 years; 18.3% were male. HR for predicting 3-year risk of a CVD event by the MBDA-based CVD risk score in the full cohort was 3.99 (95% CI: 3.51-4.49, p = 5.0×10-95). HR were also significant for subgroups based on age, comorbidities, disease activity, and drug use. In a multivariable model, the MBDA-based CVD risk score added significant information to hypertension, diabetes, tobacco use, history of CVD, age, sex and CRP (HR = 2.27, p = 1.7×10-7).

CONCLUSION

The MBDA-based CVD risk score has been externally validated in an RA cohort that is younger than and independent of the Medicare cohort that was used for development and internal validation.

Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Risk in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results From the TARGET Trial

Cardiovascular disease remains an important comorbidity in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but traditional models do not accurately predict cardiovascular risk in patients with RA. The addition of biomarkers could improve prediction.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The TARGET (Treatments Against RA and Effect on FDG PET/CT) trial assessed whether different treatment strategies in RA differentially impact cardiovascular risk as measured by the change in arterial inflammation on arterial target to background ratio on fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography scans conducted 24 weeks apart. A group of 24 candidate biomarkers supported by prior literature was assessed at baseline and 24 weeks later. Longitudinal analyses examined the association between baseline biomarker values, measured in plasma EDTA, and the change in arterial inflammation target to background ratio. Model fit was assessed for the candidate biomarkers only, clinical variables only, and models combining both. One hundred nine patients with median (interquartile range) age 58 years (53-65 years), RA duration 1.4 years (0.5-6.6 years), and 82% women had biomarkers assessed at baseline and follow-up. Because the main trial analyses demonstrated significant target to background ratio decreases with both treatment strategies but no difference across treatment groups, we analyzed all patients together. Baseline values of serum amyloid A, C-reactive protein, soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1, adiponectin, YKL-40, and osteoprotegerin were associated with significant change in target to background ratio. When selected candidate biomarkers were added to the clinical variables, the adjusted R2 improved from 0.20 to 0.33 (likelihood ratio P=0.0005).

CONCLUSIONS

A candidate biomarker approach identified several promising biomarkers that associate with baseline and treatment-associated changes in arterial inflammation in patients with RA. These will now be tested in an external validation cohort.

Stroke risk in rheumatoid arthritis patients: exploring connections and implications for patient care

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) can independently increase the risk of stroke, affecting both young and adult RA patients. Recent attention has been drawn to the association between stroke and RA, supported by mounting evidence. Given that stroke is a significant and an urgent public health concern, this review aims to highlight the relationship between stroke and RA, covering mechanisms, underlying risk factors, early detection tools, and treatment implications. By uncovering the connection that links RA to stroke, we can pave the way for targeted healthcare practices and the development of preventive strategies for individuals with RA. Therefore, further research is imperative to deepen our understanding of this association and, ideally, guide treatment decisions for individuals at risk of both RA and stroke.

Exercise therapy for improving cardiovascular health in rheumatoid arthritis

There is increased risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Primary cardiovascular disease prevention in rheumatoid arthritis patients is difficult, especially in those with high disease activity. According to current evidence, people with rheumatoid arthritis can significantly improve clinical indices and patient-reported outcomes by engaging in organized physical activity such as resistance training and aerobic activities. Additionally, participating in an exercise regimen can lower the risk of experiencing cardiovascular problems. Nevertheless, the percentage of patients with sedentary lifestyle habits is high among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis. Patient education regarding the benefits of physical activity/exercise is essential. The cardiovascular effects of exercise depend on several mechanisms such as (i) increased vascular function, (ii) decreased systemic inflammation, (iii) restoration of the autonomic system, (iv) improved lipid profile, and (v) increased muscular function. Maintaining the exercise routine is crucial for continuing benefits. A customized exercise plan helps to improve adherence and compliance. Engaging patients in shared decision-making is important since their personal choices can alter depending on several factors such as the severity of the disease, the cost, and accessibility. The current narrative review aimed to explore the recent evidence related to exercise therapy for cardiovascular health in patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

Clinical prediction models of rheumatoid arthritis and its complications: focus on cardiovascular disease and interstitial lung disease

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic, systemic, autoimmune disease of unknown etiology with erosive, symmetric polyarthritis as the main clinical manifestations. Its basic pathological changes are the formation of synovitis, and patients gradually develop destruction of articular cartilage destruction and bone erosion, which eventually leads to joint deformity, disability, and various extra-articular manifestations. Clinical prediction models (CPMs), also known as risk prediction models or risk scores, are mathematical formulas used to estimate the probability that a given individual will have a disease or an outcome in the future. The models are mainly divided into two categories: diagnostic models and prognostic models, which can be used to provide information on disease diagnosis or prognosis to help make better medical decisions. Currently, there is no cure for RA, but effective early diagnosis and treatment are crucial for limiting the severity of the disease and preventing the occurrence and development of complications. This paper reviews the CPMs associated with RA and its related complications, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD), in order to provide reference and evidence for the early diagnosis and treatment of these diseases and personalized medicine for patients. In addition, the possible pathogenesis and risk factors of these comorbidities are summarized, and possible directions for future related research are prospected.

Relevance of circulating markers of endothelial activation for cardiovascular risk assessment in rheumatoid arthritis: a narrative review

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is associated with excessive cardiovascular mortality secondary to premature atherosclerosis, in which endothelial activation (EA) plays a central role. EA is characterized by loss of vascular integrity, expression of leucocyte adhesion molecules, transition from antithrombotic to prothrombotic phenotype, cytokines production, shedding of membrane microparticles and recruitment of endothelial progenitor cells. As EA is an early event in atherogenesis, circulating markers of EA are putative markers of vascular pathology and cardiovascular (CV) risk. After a presentation of biology of EA, the present review analyzed the available data regarding changes in EA markers in RA in link with the vascular pathology and CV events, discussed their relevance as biomarkers of CV risk and proposed future directions.

Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Risk Stratification in the Rheumatic Diseases:: An Integrative, Multiparametric Approach

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk is increased in most inflammatory rheumatic diseases (IRDs), reiterating the role of inflammation in the initiation and progression of atherosclerosis. An inverse association of CVD risk with body weight and lipid levels has been described in IRDs. Coronary artery calcium scores, plaque burden and characteristics, and carotid plaques on ultrasound optimize CVD risk estimate in IRDs. Biomarkers of cardiac injury, autoantibodies, lipid biomarkers, and cytokines also improve risk assessment in IRDs. Machine learning and deep learning algorithms for phenotype and image analysis hold promise to improve CVD risk stratification in IRDs.

Biomarkers of systemic treatment response in people with psoriasis: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Responses to the systemic treatments commonly used to treat psoriasis vary. Biomarkers that accurately predict effectiveness and safety would enable targeted treatment selection, improved patient outcomes and more cost-effective healthcare.

OBJECTIVES

To perform a scoping review to identify and catalogue candidate biomarkers of systemic treatment response in psoriasis for the translational research community.

METHODS

A systematic search of CENTRAL, Embase, LILACS and MEDLINE was performed for relevant articles published between 1990 and December 2021. Eligibility criteria were studies involving patients with psoriasis (any age, n ≥ 50) reporting biomarkers associated with systemic treatment response. The main outcomes were any measure of systemic treatment efficacy or safety. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second; studies meeting minimal quality criteria (use of methods to control for confounding) were formally assessed for bias. Candidate biomarkers were identified by an expert multistakeholder group using a majority voting consensus exercise and mapped to relevant cellular and molecular pathways.

RESULTS

Of 71 included studies (67 studying effectiveness outcomes and eight safety outcomes; four studied both), most reported genomic or proteomic biomarkers associated with response to biologics (48 studies). Methodological or reporting limitations frequently compromised the interpretation of findings, including inadequate control for key covariates, lack of adjustment for multiple testing, and selective outcome reporting. We identified candidate biomarkers of efficacy to tumour necrosis factor inhibitors [variation in CARD14, CDKAL1, IL1B, IL12B and IL17RA loci, and lipopolysaccharide-induced phosphorylation of nuclear factor (NF)-κB in type 2 dendritic cells] and ustekinumab (HLA-C*06:02 and variation in an IL1B locus). None were supported by sufficient evidence for clinical use without further validation studies. Candidate biomarkers were found to be involved in the immune cellular crosstalk implicated in psoriasis pathogenesis, most notably antigen presentation, T helper (Th)17 cell differentiation, positive regulation of NF-κB, and Th17 cell activation.

CONCLUSIONS

This comprehensive catalogue provides a key resource for researchers and reveals a diverse range of biomarker types and outcomes in the included studies. The candidate biomarkers identified require further evaluation in methodologically robust studies to establish potential clinical utility. Future studies should aim to address the common methodological limitations highlighted in this review to expedite discovery and validation of biomarkers for clinical use. What is already known about this topic? Responses to the systemic treatments commonly used to treat psoriasis vary. Biomarkers that accurately predict effectiveness and safety would enable targeted treatment selection, improved patient outcomes and more cost-effective healthcare. What does this study add? This review provides a comprehensive catalogue of investigated biomarkers of systemic treatment response in psoriasis. A diverse range of biomarker types and outcomes was found in the included studies, serving as a key resource for the translational research community.

Development and external validation of prediction models for adverse health outcomes in rheumatoid arthritis: A multinational real-world cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

Identification of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients at high risk of adverse health outcomes remains a major challenge. We aimed to develop and validate prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy.

METHODS

Data from 15 claims and electronic health record databases across 9 countries were used. Models were developed and internally validated on Optum® De-identified Clinformatics® Data Mart Database using L1-regularized logistic regression to estimate the risk of adverse health outcomes within 3 months (leukopenia, pancytopenia, infection), 2 years (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke), and 5 years (cancers [colorectal, breast, uterine] after treatment initiation. Candidate predictors included demographic variables and past medical history. Models were externally validated on all other databases. Performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

FINDINGS

Models were developed and internally validated on 21,547 RA patients and externally validated on 131,928 RA patients. Models for serious infection (AUC: internal 0.74, external ranging from 0.62 to 0.83), MI (AUC: internal 0.76, external ranging from 0.56 to 0.82), and stroke (AUC: internal 0.77, external ranging from 0.63 to 0.95), showed good discrimination and adequate calibration. Models for the other outcomes showed modest internal discrimination (AUC < 0.65) and were not externally validated.

INTERPRETATION

We developed and validated prediction models for a variety of adverse health outcomes in RA patients initiating first-line MTX monotherapy. Final models for serious infection, MI, and stroke demonstrated good performance across multiple databases and can be studied for clinical use.

FUNDING

This activity under the European Health Data & Evidence Network (EHDEN) has received funding from the Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 806968. This Joint Undertaking receives support from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme and EFPIA.

Biomarkers of disease progression in people with psoriasis: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Identification of those at risk of more severe psoriasis and/or associated morbidities offers opportunity for early intervention, reduced disease burden and more cost-effective healthcare. Prognostic biomarkers of disease progression have thus been the focus of intense research, but none are part of routine practice.

OBJECTIVES

To identify and catalogue candidate biomarkers of disease progression in psoriasis for the translational research community.

METHODS

A systematic search of CENTRAL, Embase, LILACS and MEDLINE was performed for relevant articles published between 1990 and December 2021. Eligibility criteria were studies involving patients with psoriasis (any age, n ≥ 50) reporting biomarkers associated with disease progression. The main outcomes were any measure of skin severity or any prespecified psoriasis comorbidity. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second; studies meeting minimal quality criteria (longitudinal design and/or use of methods to control for confounding) were formally assessed for bias. Candidate biomarkers were identified by an expert multistakeholder group using a majority voting consensus exercise, and mapped to relevant cellular and molecular pathways.

RESULTS

Of 181 included studies, most investigated genomic or proteomic biomarkers associated with disease severity (n = 145) or psoriatic arthritis (n = 30). Methodological and reporting limitations compromised interpretation of findings, most notably a lack of longitudinal studies, and inadequate control for key prognostic factors. The following candidate biomarkers with future potential utility were identified for predicting disease severity: LCE3D, interleukin (IL)23R, IL23A, NFKBIL1 loci, HLA-C*06:02 (genomic), IL-17A, IgG aHDL, GlycA, I-FABP and kallikrein 8 (proteomic), tyramine (metabolomic); psoriatic arthritis: HLA-C*06:02, HLA-B*27, HLA-B*38, HLA-B*08, and variation at the IL23R and IL13 loci (genomic); IL-17A, CXCL10, Mac-2 binding protein, integrin b5, matrix metalloproteinase-3 and macrophage-colony stimulating factor (proteomic) and tyramine and mucic acid (metabolomic); and type 2 diabetes mellitus: variation in IL12B and IL23R loci (genomic). No biomarkers were supported by sufficient evidence for clinical use without further validation.

CONCLUSIONS

This review provides a comprehensive catalogue of investigated biomarkers of disease progression in psoriasis. Future studies must address the common methodological limitations identified herein to expedite discovery and validation of biomarkers for clinical use. What is already known about this topic? The current treatment paradigm in psoriasis is reactive. There is a need to develop effective risk-stratified management approaches that can proactively attenuate the substantial burden of disease. Prognostic biomarkers of disease progression have therefore been the focus of intense research. What does this study add? This review is the first to scope, collate and catalogue research investigating biomarkers of disease progression in psoriasis. The review identifies potentially promising candidate biomarkers for further investigation and highlights common important limitations that should be considered when designing and conducting future studies in this area.

Elevations in adipocytokines and mortality in rheumatoid arthritis

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed whether circulating levels of adiponectin and leptin are associated with higher mortality in patients with RA.

METHODS

Participants were adults from the Veterans Affairs RA Registry. Adipokines and inflammatory cytokines were measured as part of a multi-analyte panel on banked serum at enrolment. Dates and causes of death were derived from the Corporate Data Warehouse and the National Death Index. Covariates were derived from medical record, biorepository and registry databases. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models evaluated associations between biomarkers and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 2583 participants were included. Higher adiponectin levels were associated with older age, male sex, white race, lower BMI, autoantibody seropositivity, radiographic damage, longer disease duration, prednisone use and osteoporosis. Higher adiponectin concentrations were also associated with higher levels of inflammatory cytokines but not higher disease activity at enrolment. Leptin was primarily associated with greater BMI and comorbidity. The highest quartile of adiponectin (vs lowest quartile) was associated with higher all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.46 (95% CI: 1.11, 1.93), P = 0.009] and higher cardiovascular mortality [HR: 1.85 (95% CI: 1.24, 2.75), P = 0.003], after accounting for covariates. Higher leptin levels were also associated with greater all-cause and cancer mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevations in adipokines are associated with age, BMI, comorbidity and severe disease features in RA and independently predict early death. Associations between adiponectin and inflammatory cytokines support the hypothesis that chronic subclinical inflammation promotes metabolic changes that drive elevations in adipokines and yield adverse health outcomes.

The Canadian Women’s Heart Health Alliance Atlas on the Epidemiology, Diagnosis, and Management of Cardiovascular Disease in Women — Chapter 4: Sex- and Gender-Unique Disparities: CVD Across the Lifespan of a Woman

Women have unique sex- and gender-related risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) that can present or evolve over their lifespan. Pregnancy-associated conditions, polycystic ovarian syndrome, and menopause can increase a woman’s risk of CVD. Women are at greater risk for autoimmune rheumatic disorders, which play a role in the predisposition and pathogenesis of CVD. The influence of traditional CVD risk factors (eg, smoking, hypertension, diabetes, obesity, physical inactivity, depression, anxiety, and family history) is greater in women than men. Finally, there are sex differences in the response to treatments for CVD risk and comorbid disease processes. In this Atlas chapter we review sex- and gender-unique CVD risk factors that can occur across a woman’s lifespan, with the aim to reduce knowledge gaps and guide the development of optimal strategies for awareness and treatment.

Patient-Powered Research Networks of the Autoimmune Research Collaborative: Rationale, Capacity, and Future Directions

Patient-Powered Research Networks (PPRNs) are US-based registry infrastructures co-created by advocacy groups, patient research partners, academic investigators, and other healthcare stakeholders. Patient-Powered Research Networks collect information directly from patients to conduct and disseminate the results of patient-centered/powered research that helps patients make more informed decisions about their healthcare. Patient-Powered Research Networks gather and utilize real-world data and patient-reported outcomes to conduct comparative effectiveness, safety, and other research, and leverage the Internet to accomplish this effectively and efficiently. Four PPRNs focused on autoimmune and immune-mediated conditions formed the Autoimmune Research Collaborative: ArthritisPower (rheumatoid arthritis, spondyloarthritis, and other rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases), IBD Partners (inflammatory bowel disease), iConquerMS (multiple sclerosis), and the Vasculitis PPRN (vasculitis). The Autoimmune Research Collaborative aims to inform the healthcare decision making of patients, care partners, and other stakeholders, such as clinicians, regulators, and payers. Illustrated by practical applications from the Autoimmune Research Collaborative and its constituent PPRNs, this article discusses the shared capacities and challenges of the PPRN model, and the opportunities presented by collaborating across autoimmune conditions to design, conduct, and disseminate patient-centered outcomes research.