Dengue virus infection in a French traveller to the hilly region of Nepal in 2015: a case report

Epidemiology and challenges of dengue surveillance in the WHO South-East Asia Region

Dengue poses a significant health and economic burden in the WHO South-East Asia Region. Approaches for control need to be aligned with current knowledge on the epidemiology of dengue in the region. Such knowledge will ensure improved targeting of interventions to reduce dengue incidence and its socioeconomic impact. This review was undertaken to describe the contemporary epidemiology of dengue and critically analyse the existing surveillance strategies in the region. Over recent decades, dengue incidence has continued to increase with geographical expansion. The region has now become hyper-endemic for multiple dengue virus serotypes/genotypes. Every epidemic cycle was associated with a change of predominant serotype/genotype and this was often associated with severe disease with intense transmission. Classical larval indices are widely used in vector surveillance and adult mosquito samplings are not implemented as a part of routine surveillance. Further, there is a lack of integration of entomological and disease surveillance systems, often leading to inaction or delays in dengue prevention and control. Disease surveillance does not capture all cases, resulting in under-reporting, and has thus failed to adequately represent the true burden of disease in the region. Possible solutions include incorporating adult mosquito sampling into routine vector surveillance, the establishment of laboratory-based sentinel surveillance, integrated vector and dengue disease surveillance and climate-based early warning systems using available technologies like mobile apps.

Spatiotemporal Distribution of Dengue and Chikungunya in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: A Systematic Review

The risk of increasing dengue (DEN) and chikungunya (CHIK) epidemics impacts 240 million people, health systems, and the economy in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The aim of this systematic review is to monitor trends in the distribution and spread of DEN/CHIK over time and geographically for future reliable vector and disease control in the HKH region. We conducted a systematic review of the literature on the spatiotemporal distribution of DEN/CHIK in HKH published up to 23 January 2020, following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, we found 61 articles that focused on the spatial and temporal distribution of 72,715 DEN and 2334 CHIK cases in the HKH region from 1951 to 2020. DEN incidence occurs in seven HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, and CHIK occurs in four HKH countries, i.e., India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar, out of eight HKH countries. DEN is highly seasonal and starts with the onset of the monsoon (July in India and June in Nepal) and with the onset of spring (May in Bhutan) and peaks in the postmonsoon season (September to November). This current trend of increasing numbers of both diseases in many countries of the HKH region requires coordination of response efforts to prevent and control the future expansion of those vector-borne diseases to nonendemic areas, across national borders.

The Dengue virus in Nepal: gaps in diagnosis and surveillance

Background

The introduction of the dengue virus (DENV) in Nepal is recent, first reports date back to 2004 from a Japanese traveller and limited information is available about DENV infection in the Nepali population. Within a decade after the first DENV detection, it is now endemic in multiple districts of Nepal with approximately 11.2 million people residing in the Terai belt being at risk of DENV infection. Sporadic cases of DENV infection have been reported every year for the past decade during the monsoon season, mainly in the Terai region.

Methods

Medline/Embase/Cochrane databases were reviewed for reports on the burden of dengue infection, diagnostic methods, and national surveillance.

Results

Four outbreaks were reported since 2004 including the diagnosis of all serotypes in 2006 and predominance of a single serotype in 2010 (DENV-1), 2013 (DENV-2), and 2016 (DENV-1). The clinical diagnoses showed a predominance of dengue fever while 4/917 (0.4%), 8/642 (1.2%) and 8/1615 (0.4%) dengue haemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome cases were identified during the outbreaks in 2010, 2013 and 2016, respectively. The number of cases reported in males was significantly higher (67.4%) than in females. Disease occurrence was primarily found in the Terai region until 2010 and was increasingly detected in the Hilly region in 2016.

Conclusion

In Nepal currently weak diagnostic facilities, very limited research on mosquitoes vectors, and poor surveillance of dengue leading to inappropriate detection and control of DENV. We surmise that improved basic research and epidemiological training courses for local scientists and laboratory personal at national and international level will help better understand the evolution and distribution of DENV transmission and its eventual control.

Dengue periodic outbreaks and epidemiological trends in Nepal

Dengue is a global health problem and expansion of its endemics towards new territories in the hilly regions in Nepal is a serious concern. It appeared as a new disease in Nepal in 2004 from Japanese traveler with sporadic cases every year and massive outbreaks in 2010, 2013 and 2016. The serotype was responsible for outbreak in particular year was dengue virus serotype-1 (DENV-1) in 2010, 2016; and DENV-2 in 2013. Nepal lacks basic health related infrastructure in rural areas and does not have a stringent health care policy. With severances of epidemic like dengue, a new surveillance or an upgrading of existing one are direly needed to better challenge the possible outbreaks. This review paper aims to explain the dengue trend in last one decade in Nepal and warrants concerted and timely public health interventions to minimize the deleterious effects of the disease.

Emergence of dengue in Nepal

Dengue virus is a major health problem in Nepal. The endogenous dengue appeared in 2006 in the country with reported outbreaks in 2010, 2013 and 2016. Eleven years vertical data show there were sporadic cases in all the years and mostly adults between 25 and 40 years of age were infected with dengue virus. Compared with primary infections, secondary infections were observed in relatively larger numbers during the period of 2008-2016. Most of the cases had symptoms of dengue fever; while 7 and 19 cases demonstrated dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome in 2010 and 2013 respectively. The proportion of dengue hemorrhagic fever amongst all cases of dengue fever was 2.5:4.7% in 2010 and 2013. We found there is shift of serotype from dengue virus serotype-1 (DENV-1) in 2010, DENV-2 in 2013 and DENV-1 in 2016. We feel there is urgent need for better community, hospital and laboratory based surveillance system capable of monitoring the circulating dengue virus (DENV) serotypes in different districts of Nepal. With improvement in surveillance system and efficient management of cases, the case fatality rate due to severe dengue can be reduced.

Present and Future of Dengue Fever in Nepal: Mapping Climatic Suitability by Ecological Niche Model

Both the number of cases of dengue fever and the areas of outbreaks within Nepal have increased significantly in recent years. Further expansion and range shift is expected in the future due to global climate change and other associated factors. However, due to limited spatially-explicit research in Nepal, there is poor understanding about the present spatial distribution patterns of dengue risk areas and the potential range shift due to future climate change. In this context, it is crucial to assess and map dengue fever risk areas in Nepal. Here, we used reported dengue cases and a set of bioclimatic variables on the MaxEnt ecological niche modeling approach to model the climatic niche and map present and future (2050s and 2070s) climatically suitable areas under different representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5). Simulation-based estimates suggest that climatically suitable areas for dengue fever are presently distributed throughout the lowland Tarai from east to west and in river valleys at lower elevations. Under the different climate change scenarios, these areas will be slightly shifted towards higher elevation with varied magnitude and spatial patterns. Population exposed to climatically suitable areas of dengue fever in Nepal is anticipated to further increase in both 2050s and 2070s on all the assumed emission scenarios. These findings could be instrumental to plan and execute the strategic interventions for controlling dengue fever in Nepal.