Predictors of mortality among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition, Northwest Ethiopia: an institution based retrospective cohort study

Predictors of time to death among under-five children in pastoral regions of Ethiopia: A retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

In Ethiopia, the mortality rate for children under five is a public health concern. Regretfully, the problem is notably underestimated and underreported, making it impossible to fully recognize how serious the situation is in the nation's developing regions. Unfortunately, no single study has been conducted to reveal the rates and predictor factors of under-five child death in Ethiopia's pastoral regions. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the critical variables that led to a shorter survival time to death for children in Ethiopia's pastoral regions under the age of five.

METHODS

Between January 18 and June 27, 2016, a retrospective follow-up study was done among under-five children in pastoral areas of Ethiopia. The statistically significant difference between categorical predictors was shown using the log-rank test, and the Kaplan-Meier survival curve was used to determine the survival time. In order to identify the time-to-death predictor factors in children under five, Cox proportional hazards (PH) model analyses of bivariable and multivariable variables were fitted.

RESULTS

A total 7,677 children were included in the study. The overall incidence rate of under-five mortality was 8.4% (95% CI 7.77%, 9.0%). In the multivariable Cox PH model analysis, children vaccinated (AHR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.59, 0.88), mothers aged 35-40 (AHR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.52), and above 41 (AHR: 2.18, 95% CI: 1.59, 2.98), not initiating exclusively breastfeeding (AHR: 1.26, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.55), the agriculture sector of the mother's occupation (AHR: 2.57, 95% CI: 1.74, 3.31), the male sex of the household head (AHR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.56, 0.81), non-anemic child (AHR: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.55, 0.83), and rural residence (AHR: 3.27, 95% CI: 1.45, 7.38) were identified as main predictors of time to death among under-five children.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the authors found a higher rate of under-five deaths than the national figure. A child vaccinated, exclusively breastfeeding, mother's occupation, sex of household head, anemic child, mother's age, and residence were found to be the most influential predictors for time-to-death. Therefore, to lower the high incidence of under-five mortality, the government should focus on the pastoral regional states of Ethiopia.

Assessing the survival time of hospitalized patients in Eastern Ethiopia during 2019-2020 using the Bayesian approach: A retrospective cohort study

Background and Aims

Severe acute malnutrition remains a significant health challenge, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. The aim of this study was to determine the survival time of under-five children with severe acute malnutrition.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted at a hospital, focusing on under-five children with severe acute malnutrition. The study included 322 inpatients admitted to the Chiro hospital in Chiro, Ethiopia, between September 2019 and August 2020, whose data was obtained from medical records. Survival functions were analysed using Kaplan‒Meier plots and log-rank tests. The survival time of severe acute malnutrition was further analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and Bayesian parametric survival models, employing integrated nested Laplace approximation methods.

Results

Among the 322 patients, 118 (36.6%) died as a result of severe acute malnutrition. The estimated median survival time for inpatients was found to be 2 weeks. Model selection criteria favored the Bayesian Weibull accelerated failure time model, which demonstrated that age, body temperature, pulse rate, nasogastric (NG) tube usage, hypoglycemia, anemia, diarrhea, dehydration, malaria, and pneumonia significantly influenced the survival time of severe acute malnutrition.

Conclusions

This study revealed that children below 24 months, those with altered body temperature and pulse rate, NG tube usage, hypoglycemia, and comorbidities such as anemia, diarrhea, dehydration, malaria, and pneumonia had a shorter survival time when affected by severe acute malnutrition under the age of five. To reduce the death rate of children under 5 years of age, it is necessary to design community management for acute malnutrition to ensure early detection and improve access to and coverage for children who are malnourished.

Survival Status and Predictors of Tuberculosis Development Among Under 5 Children Admitted With Severe Acute Malnutrition in Ethiopia: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Introduction. The burden of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains unacceptably high worldwide. The burden of Tuberculosis (TB) co-occurring with SAM in under 5 children is a significant focus for the improvement of child health. The co-existence of these diseases are significantly enhancing the associated morbidity, mortality, and hospitalization costs among this population. Objective. To determine survival status and predictors of TB development in under 5 children with SAM in Asella Referral and Teaching Hospital, Ethiopia. Methods. A retrospective cohort study was done in 247 under 5 children with SAM between January 01/2018 and December 31/2022. Systematic sampling technique was used to select the study participants. Data extraction format was used to collect data from the patient's medical chart. EpiData version 4.6.0.6 was used for data entry and exported to STATA version 14.2 for statistical analysis. Result. This study includes 247 under 5 children with SAM with a response rate of 100%. Regarding to the survival status; 24(17%) of under 5 children with SAM have developed the events (TB) and the rest of them, 205(83%) were censored. The incidence density rate (IDR) of TB in under 5 children with SAM was 45.51 per 100 (95% CI: 33.63, 61.58) children-months observation. The cumulative incidence of TB was 17% (95% CI: 12.79, 22.25). Multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis revealed that: having a history of TB contact (AHR = 5.56, 95% CI: 2.77, 11.15, P-value = .000), having a history of bottle feeding (AHR = 4.95, 95%CI: 1.08, 22.77, P-value = .040), did not take F100 (AHR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.12, 7.25, P-value = .00) were statistically significant predictors of TB development. Conclusion. This study shows that the IDR of TB was high. Having a history of TB contact, history of bottle feeding, and not taking F100 were significant predictors of TB development. It is vital to address these predictors to prevent the development of TB in this population. Moreover, early screening of TB in these children should get high emphasize.

Pooled prevalence and its determinants of stunting among children during their critical period in Ethiopia: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Stunting is a major public health concern, particularly in low and middle-income countries. Globally, nearly 149 million under-five children are suffering from stunting. Despite it can occur in all age groups, the impact is more severe among children age less than 24 months as this period is critical time of very rapid growth and development. Therefore, this review aimed to determine the pooled prevalence and determinants of stunting among children during this critical period in Ethiopia.

METHODS

The literature search was conducted using international electronic data bases (pumed, Google scholar, CINHAL, Hinari, open Google) and the hand search of reference lists of eligible articles. The presence of heterogeneity between studies was evaluated using Cochrane Q-test and I2 test statistics and sensitivity analysis was also checked. Small study effect was checked through graphical and statistical test. Sub-group analysis was performed to handle heterogeneity.

RESULTS

This study included 14 studies with a total sample size of 8,056 children. The overall pooled estimate of stunting was 35.01(95% CI: 24.73-45.28, I2 = 98.98%) in the country with the highest prevalence in Amhara region. Increased Child's age (OR = 3.83; 95% CI: 2.47-5.18, I2 = 97.76%), no maternal education (OR = 2.90; 95%CI: 1.59-4.20, I2 = 89.73%), no maternal postnatal follow up (OR = 1.81; 95% CI:1.51-2.10) less than four food diversity of the child (OR = 2.24;95%CI; 1.94-2.55,I2 = 21.55%), low maternal body mass index, failure to colostrum and exclusive breast feeding, two and more under five children in the household and poor wealth index of the family were significant factors of stunting.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

The pooled prevalence of stunting among children during their critical time is high. Increased Child's age, no maternal education and no maternal postnatal follow up, less than four food diversity of the child, low maternal body mass index, failure to colostrum and exclusive breast feeding, two and more under five children in the household and poor wealth index of the family were determinants of stunting. Therefore, providing continuous maternal postnatal follow up, increase awareness of mothers on importance of colostrum and exclusive breast feeding, feeding of children the recommended variety of foods and at large to improve the wealth status of the households are crucial interventions to meet national and international targets of zero stunting in children less than 2 years.

Time to recovery from severe acute malnutrition and its predictors among under five children admitted to therapeutic feeding units of general and referral hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia, 2020: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Across the globe, an estimated 16 million children under the age of 5 are affected by severe acute malnutrition. Children with severe acute malnutrition are nine times more likely to die than well-nourished children. In Ethiopia, 7% of children under five are wasted, and 1% of these are severely wasted. A prolonged hospital stay increases the incidence of hospital-acquired infections. The aim of this study was to assess the time to recovery and its predictors among children 6-59 months old with severe acute malnutrition admitted to therapeutic feeding units of selected general and referral hospitals in Tigray, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A prospective cohort study design was conducted among children aged 6-59 months admitted with severe acute malnutrition in selected hospitals in Tigray that have therapeutic feeding units. The data were cleaned, coded, entered into Epi-data Manager, and exported to STATA 14 for analysis.

RESULT

Among 232 children followed in the study, 176 have recovered from severe acute malnutrition with a recovery rate of 54 per 1000 person-days observation and the median time to recovery was 16 days with an inter-quartile range of 8. In a multivariable Cox Regression, feeding plumpy nut [AHR 0.49 (95% CI 0.2717216-0.8893736)] and failing to gain 5 gr/kg/day for three successive days after feeding freely on F-100 [AHR 3.58 (95% CI 1.78837-7.160047)] were found to have an association with time to recovery.

CONCLUSION

Despite the median time to recovery is shorter than what has been reported in a few studies, we can conclude that this could not let children avoid any possible hospital-acquired infections. The impact of staying in a hospital may also extend to the mother/caregiver in terms of the infection that they may acquire or the costs imposed on them.

Rate, risk factors and estimations of time to develop severe acute malnutrition after children receiving antiretroviral therapy at selected health facilities in northwest Ethiopia

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) affects up to 50 % of children with HIV, especially those who reside in resource-constrained healthcare setting like Ethiopia. During subsequent follow-up of children factors related to incidence of SAM after antiretroviral therapy (ART) is set on, however, there is no prior evidence. An institution-based retrospective cohort study was employed among 721 HIV-positive children from 1 January to 30 December 2021. Data were entered using Epi-Data version 3.1 and exported to STATA version 14 for analysis. Bi-variable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard models were employed at 95 % confidence intervals to identify significant predictors for SAM. According to this result, the overall mean (±sd) age of the participants was found to be 9⋅83 (±3⋅3) years. At the end of the follow-up period, 103 (14⋅29 %) children developed SAM with a median time of 30⋅3 (13⋅4) months after ART initiation. The overall incidence density of SAM was found to be 5⋅64 per 100 child (95 % CI 4⋅68, 6⋅94). Children with CD4 counts below the threshold [AHR 2⋅6 (95 % CI 1⋅2, 2⋅9, P = 0⋅01)], disclosed HIV status [AHR 1⋅9 (95 % CI 1⋅4, 3⋅39, P = 0⋅03)] and Hgb level ≤10 mg/dl [AHR 1⋅8 (95 % CI 1⋅2, 2⋅9, P = 0⋅03)] were significant predictors for SAM. Significant predictors of acute malnutrition were having a CD4 count below the threshold, children who had previously reported their HIV status, and having haemoglobin <10 mg/dl. To ensure better health outcomes, healthcare practitioners should improve earlier nutritional screening and consistent counselling at each session of care.

Incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition in North Shoa, Amhara region, Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study

Introduction

Although tuberculosis (TB) is one of the significant public health challenges in severely malnourished children throughout the globe, it is a severe issue for countries such as Ethiopia, with significant resource limitations. Few studies have examined the incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among children under five years of age with severe acute malnutrition in developing countries, and there is a paucity of data. This study aimed to estimate the incidence of tuberculosis and its predictors among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in North Shoa, Amhara region, Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted between January 20, 2017, and June 20, 2019. The sample size was calculated using STATA, which yields a total of 345 charts that were selected with systematic random sampling. Data entry was performed using Epi-data version 4.2 and analyzed with STATA 14. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were computed. Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to detect the determinants of tuberculosis. The hazard ratio with a 95% confidence interval was subsequently calculated. Variables with p-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant.

Results

The incidence rate of tuberculosis among children under five years of age with SAM was 4.6 per 100 person-day observations (95% CI: 3.29, 8.9). Predictors of TB were a history of contact with known TB cases [AHR: 1.4 (95% CI: 1.00, 2.8], HIV/AIDS [AHR: 3.71 (95% CI: 2.10, 8.71)], baseline pneumonia [AHR: 2.10 (1.76,12)], not supplying zinc at baseline [AHR: 3.1 (1.91, 4.70)], and failed appetite taste at the diagnosis of SAM [AHR: 2.4 (1.35, 3.82)].

Conclusions

In this study, the incidence rate of TB was high. Not supplying zinc at baseline, failed appetite taste at the diagnosis of SAM, history of contact with known TB cases, and baseline pneumonia were significant predictors of TB. Prioritizing regular TB screenings, nutritional support, and zinc supplementation for under-five children with SAM should be implemented to reduce the risk of TB.

Severe acute malnutrition’s recovery rate still below the minimum standard: predictors of time to recovery among 6- to 59-month-old children in the healthcare setting of Southwest Ethiopia

Background

Despite currently available, scientifically proven treatments and national guideline, the SAM recovery rate is still considerably behind expectations, and it continues to have a devastating impact on under-five children. Identifying predictors of time to recovery might help to reach the minimal criterion established by the WHO and the national Sphere which decreases child mortality. Therefore, the current study assessed time to recovery and its predictors among children aged 6–59 months admitted with SAM in the Healthcare Setting of Southwest Ethiopia, 2021.

Methods

An institutional-based multicenter retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 486 children aged 6 to 59 months admitted with SAM cases. Data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.6 and exported to Stata version 14 for further analysis. Cox–Snell residual plot was used to assess the final model’s overall goodness of fit. Finally, a significant predictor of time to recovery was identified using Weibull survival regression model, at 0.05 significance level.

Result

Overall, 68.72 (95% CI 64.8, 73) of the children recovered and 4.32% died. The overall incidence density was 3.35/100-person day. Independent predictors of time to recovery were, starting complementary feeding at six months (AHR = 1.44; 95%, CI 1.073, 1.935), pneumonia at baseline (AHR = 1.33, 95%, CI 1.049, 1.696), amoxicillin (AHR = 1.31, 95%, CI 1.021, 1.685), and folic acid supplementation (AHR = 1.82, 95% CI 1,237, 2.665).

Conclusion

The recovery from SAM at study area after a maximum of 60 days of treatment was below the accepted minimum standard. Complementary feeding, pneumonia, treated by amoxicillin, and folic acid supplementation were predictors of time to recovery. Therefore, providing folic acid and amoxicillin for those in need as well as the earliest possible treatment of concomitant conditions like pneumonia is highly recommended.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41043-022-00331-9.

Predictors of In-Patient Mortality of Severe Acute Malnutrition of Hospitalised Children in a Tertiary Facility in Southern Nigeria

Introduction

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains a public health concern in developing countries. Children with SAM are nine times more likely to die compared with those that are well-nourished. Most studies on SAM in Nigeria focus on disease burden without evaluating risk factors that may be useful as interventions in reducing mortality. This study evaluated predictors of mortality and outcome among hospitalised children with SAM in Southern Nigeria.

Methods

Children with SAM admitted into the paediatric medical ward of the University of Calabar Teaching Hospital between September 2017 and November 2019 were studied prospectively. A multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors that independently predicted mortality with a p-value <0.05 considered significant.

Results

One hundred children were studied. The mean age was 14.28 ± 14.04 months, of which 89% were less than two years of age. Oedematous and non-oedematous SAM were found in 18.5% and 81.5%, respectively. Co-morbidities included tuberculosis (TB) (13.0%), HIV (12.0%), and HIV/TB co-infection (3.0%). Clinical presentation included fever (21.7%), anaemia (19.9%), diarrhoea (19.1%), skin changes (8.7%), and shock (1.8%). The mean duration of hospital stay was 11.48 ± 6.87 days. Nine of the children were discharged against medical advice and were excluded from further analysis. About 92.3% were discharged for follow-up and 7.7% died. After multivariable regression, the predictors of mortality were shock (p=0.037, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 17.51, 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.19-258.77) and skin changes (p=0.035, aOR: 9.81, 95% CI: 1.18-81.46).

Conclusion

The presence of shock and skin changes are independently associated with mortality in hospitalised children with SAM. Prompt referral of children with SAM and more so with complications of shock and skin changes is hereby advocated to reduce mortality.

Human insecurity and child deaths in conflict: evidence for improved response in Yemen

Background

Since the beginning of the ongoing conflict in Yemen, &gt;23 000 air strikes and &gt;100 000 fatalities have been recorded. Data from Yemen Data Project linked &gt;1300 child fatalities and &gt;900 child injuries to air raids. However, there is little literature on the effect of the protracted armed conflict on the pattern of child mortality using data from small-scale surveys. We aimed to identify the pattern of the death rate for children aged &lt;5 years (‘under-5’) and its relationship with human insecurity in Yemen.

Methods

We created a human insecurity index (i.e. severely insecure vs insecure) for the 22 governorates in Yemen from 2015 to 2019, using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Database. We matched this insecurity index with the corresponding under-5 mortality data from the Complex Emergency Database. We analysed the relationship between the under-5 death rate (U5DR) and the insecurity level using a Bayesian finite mixture model in order to account for unobserved heterogeneity in clustered finite subsets of a population.

Results

We extracted 72 surveys and 77.8% (n = 56) were included in this study. The mean of the recall period for mortality was 106 days with a standard deviation of 93 days. We identified two subpopulations: Subpopulation I—high average number of child deaths and Subpopulation II—low average number of child deaths. The log posterior mean of the U5DR is 1.10 (95% credible intervals: 0.36, 1.82) in the severely insecure group in Subpopulation I and 3-fold the estimate in Subpopulation II. However, in Subpopulation II, we found no association between the insecurity level and the U5DR.

Conclusion

The pattern of child deaths is crucial in understanding the relationship between human insecurity and the U5DR.

Incidence and predictors of severe acute malnutrition mortality in children aged 6-59 months admitted at Pawe general hospital, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is defined as a weight-for-height < -3z scores of the median WHO growth standards, or visible severe wasting or the presence of nutritional edema. SAM related mortality rates in under-five children are well documented in Ethiopia but data on their predictors are limited. We aimed to document factors associated with SAM related mortality to inform better inpatient management.

Methods

A facility-based retrospective cohort study was conducted among children admitted due to SAM at Pawe General Hospital, Northwest Ethiopia, from the 1^st of January 2015 to the 31^st of December 2019. Data from the records of SAM children were extracted using a standardized checklist. Epi-Data version 3.2 was used for data entry, and Stata version 14 was used for analysis. Bi-variable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Variables with P<0.05 were considered significant predictors of mortality.

Results

Five-hundred sixty-eight SAM cases were identified of mean age was 27.4 (SD± 16.5) months. The crude death rate was 91/568 (16.02%) and the mean time to death was determined as 13 (±8) days. Independent risk factors for death were: (i) vomiting AHR = 5.1 (1.35–21.1, p = 0.026), (ii) diarrhea AHR = 2.79 (1.46–5.4, p = 0.002), (iii) needing nasogastric therapy AHR = 3.22 (1.65–6.26, p = 0.001), (iv) anemia AHR = 1.89 (1.15–3.2, p = 0.012), and (v) being readmitted with SAM AHR = 1.7 (1.12–2.8, p = 0.037).

Conclusion

SAM mortality was high in under-five children in our setting. The identified risk factors should inform treatment and prevention strategies. Improved community health education should focus on healthy nutrition and seeking early treatment. Inpatient mortality may be reduced by stricter adherence to treatment guidelines and recognizing early the key risk factors for death.

Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) associated mortality rate of children attending HIV/AIDS care in North West Ethiopia, 2009–2019

Objective:

This study aimed to assess Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) associated mortality rate of children attending HIV/AIDS care in North West Ethiopia 2009–2019.

Methods:

Institutional-based retrospective cohort study was employed among 721 on antiretroviral therapy care seropositive children since 2009–2019. Data were entered using EpiData version 4.2 and exported to STATA (SE) R-14 version statistical software for further analysis. Beside, Besides, WHO (World Health Organization) Anthro Plus software was used to assess the nutritional status of the children. Bivariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify the predictors of mortality. Finally, variables with p-value less than 0.05 were considered significant predictors of mortality.

Result:

Overall, 721 (N = 721) seropositive children were included with a mean (±SD) age of 118.4 ± 38.24 months. A median time of death was reported at 19.5 months (interquartile range = ±8.5). The overall mortality rate in this study was determined as 5.4 per 100 child-years (95% confidence interval: 3.6–5.8). Severe stunting (height for age Z-score <−3) (hazard ratio = 2.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.8–6.4), admission with septic shock (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% confidence interval: 1.2–4.3, p < 0.008), CD4+ count below threshold (hazard ratio = 1.6, 95% confidence interval: 1.19–7.9), and World Health Organization Stages III and IV (hazard ratio = 2.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.8–6.4) were at high risk of mortality.

Conclusion:

A high rate of SAM associated mortality rate within short median (±SD) time to death was reported as compared with previous finding in Ethiopia. Seropositive children presenting with CD4 counts being below a threshold, World Health Organization Stages III and IV, and being nutritionally stunted during antiretroviral therapy initiation were at high risk of early mortality.

Patterns, Outcomes and Predictors of Pediatric Medical Admissions at Gadarif Hospital in Eastern Sudan

BACKGROUND

The reduction of childhood mortality is a reliable indicator of a national health system's progress and improvement. Sudan's population is still suffering from communicable diseases, with a considerably higher mortality rate among children. Efforts are therefore needed to reduce mortality and achieve the Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals. This study was conducted to determine the morbidity, mortality and outcomes of children admitted to Gadarif Hospital in eastern Sudan.

METHOD

A retrospective study was conducted by reviewing the medical files of pediatric patients who were admitted to Gadarif Hospital between March 1, 2019 and March 31, 2020.

RESULT

A total of 740 medical files were reviewed. Most, 453 (61.2%) of the admissions were males. The median (interquartile range) age was 3.0 (8.0) years and 433 (58.8%) of the admissions were under 5 years of age. The median (interquartile range) of the length of hospital stay was 9.0 (12.0) days. Visceral leishmaniasis, malnutrition, severe malaria, sickle cell disease, acute watery diarrhea, severe anemia (regardless of its cause), septicemia and acute respiratory infection were the most common causes of admission. The mortality rate was 5.7%, and it was significantly higher in females than males [24/287 (8.4%) vs. 18/453 (4.0%), P = 0.01] and in children under 5 years [36/433 (8.3%) vs. 6/307 (2.0%), P < 0.001]. Malnutrition, visceral leishmaniasis, septicemia and meningitis/encephalitis were the main diseases causing death in the study population. The case fatality rate was not significantly different in malnutrition than in visceral leishmaniasis [9/93 (9.7%) vs. 7/178 (3.9%), P = 0.05].

CONCLUSION

The main causes of morbidity and mortality for children admitted to Gadarif Pediatric Hospital were communicable diseases. The mortality rate was 5.7%. Females and children under 5 years were the most vulnerable groups for fatality.

Determinants of mortality among under-five children admitted with severe acute malnutrition in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Management of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) has been a program priority in Ethiopia, but it remains the leading cause of mortality in under-five children. Hence, this study aimed to identify the incidence density rate of mortality and determinants among under-five children with severe acute malnutrition in St. Paul's Hospital Millennium Medical College, 2012 to 2019.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted and data were collected using a structured checklist from 673 charts, of which 610 charts were included in the final analysis. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve with Log-rank test was used to estimate the survival time. Bi-variable and multi-variable Cox proportional hazard regression models were fitted to identify determinants of death. Schoenfeld residuals test was used to check a proportional hazard assumption. Goodness of fit of the final model was checked using Nelson Aalen cumulative hazard function against Cox-Snell residual.

RESULTS

In this study, 61 (10%) children died making the incidence density rate of death 5.6 (95% CI: 4.4, 7.2) per 1000 child-days. Shock (Adjusted Hazard Ratio) [AHR] =3.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 6.3)), IV fluid infusion (AHR = 5.2; 95% CI: 2.4, 10.4), supplementing F100 (AHR = 0.12; 95%CI: 0.06, 0.23) and zinc (AHR = 0.45; 95% CI: 0.22, 0.93) were determinants of death.

CONCLUSION

The overall proportion of deaths was within the range put forth by the Sphere standard and the national SAM management protocol. Shock and IV fluid infusion increased the hazard of death, whereas F100 & zinc were found to decrease the likelihood death. Children with SAM presented with shock should be handled carefully and IV fluids should be given with precautions.

Under-five mortality and associated factors in southeastern Ethiopia

Background

In the year 2019, around 5 million children under age five died and most of the deaths happened in developing countries. Though large numbers of deaths are reported in such countries, limited availability of data poses a substantial challenge on generating reliable estimates. Hence, this study aims to assess the prevalence and factors associated with under-five mortality in southeastern Ethiopia.

Methods

A register based cross sectional study was conducted from 1^st September 2014 to July 2019 in Asella teaching and referral hospital. A total of 4901 under-five age children registered on the admission and discharge book of pediatric ward with complete information were included for the analysis. Data entry and analysis were conducted using Epidata Version 7 and SPSS version 21, respectively. Descriptive statistics were used to explore the characteristics of the study participants and their condition at discharge. Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) with its 95% Confidence interval and P-value less than 5% was used to decide the statistically significant association.

Results

The prevalence of under-five mortality among admitted children in Asella Teaching and Referral hospital was 8.7% (95% CI 7.91–9.50%). Post-Neonatal and Child mortality were found to be 9.1% and 8.18%, respectively. Moreover, large numbers of death (45.2%) were seen within the first 2 days of admission. Address (AOR:1.4(1.08–1.81)), HIV status (AOR:4.64 (2.19–9.8)), severe acute malnutrition (AOR:2.82 (2.03–3.91)), hypovolemic shock (AOR:4.32 (2.31–8.1)), type I diabetes with DKA (AOR:3.53(1.34–9.29) and length of stay in the hospital for ≤2 days (AOR: 4.28 (3.09–5.95)) as well as 3–4 days (AOR: 1.48 (1.02–2.15)) were among the identified predictors.

Conclusions

Though childhood mortality is swiftly decreasing, and access and utilization of health care is improving in Ethiopia, our study found large prevalence of under-five mortality, 8.7% and higher number of deaths in early days of admission. Improving the quality of service has a paramount importance in reducing the mortality and managing associated factors contributing to under-five mortality among admitted children.

Mortality in relation to profiles of clinical features in Ghanaian severely undernourished children aged 0-59 months: an observational study

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is associated with a complex pattern of various clinical conditions. We investigated how risk factors cluster in children with SAM, the relationship between clusters of risk factors and mortality as well as length of stay in children with SAM. A prospective observational study design was used. Data were extracted from medical records of 601 infants and children aged 0-59 months admitted and treated for SAM in three Ghanaian referral hospital between June 2013 and June 2018. Among the 601 medical records extracted, ninety-nine died. Three clusters of medical features clearly emerged from data analyses. Firstly, an association was defined by eye signs, pallor, diarrhoea and vomiting with gastrointestinal infections and malaria. In this cluster, pallor and eye signs were related to 2- to 5-fold increased mortality risk. Secondly, HIV, oedema, fast pulse, respiratory infections and tuberculosis; among those features, HIV increased child mortality risk by 2-fold. Thirdly, shock, convulsions, dermatitis, cold hands and feet, weak pulse, urinary tract infections and irritability were clustered. Among those features, cold hands and feet, dermatitis, convulsions and shock increased child mortality risk in a range of 2- to 9-fold. Medical conditions and clinical signs in children diagnosed with SAM associate in patterns and are related to clinical outcomes.

Survival and predictors of mortality among severe acute malnourished under-five children admitted at Felege-Hiwot comprehensive specialized hospital, northwest, Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition is still a global public health problem contributing for under-five morbidity and mortality. The case is similar in Ethiopia in which severe acute malnutrition is the major contributor to mortality being an underlying cause for nearly 45% of under-five deaths. However, there is no recent evidence that shows the time to death and public health importance of oxygen saturation and chest in drawing in the study area. Therefore, estimated time to death and its predictors can provide an input for program planners and decision-makers.

METHODS

A facility -based retrospective cohort study was conducted among 488 severe acute malnourished under-five children admitted from the 1st of January 2016 to the 30th of December 2019. The study participants were selected by using simple random sampling technique. Data were entered in to Epi-Data version 3.1 and exported to STATA version15 statistical software for further analysis. The Kaplan Meier was used to estimate cumulative survival probability and a log-rank test was used to compare the survival time between different categories of explanatory variables. The Cox-proportional hazard regression model was fitted to identify predictors of mortality. P-value< 0.05 was used to declare statistical significance.

RESULTS

Out of the total 488 randomly selected charts of children with severe acute malnutrition, 476 records were included in the final analysis. A total of 54(11.34%) children died with an incidence rate of 9.1death /1000 person- days. Failed appetite test (AHR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.26, 4.67), altered consciousness level at admission (AHR: 2.4; 95%CI: 1.08, 4.67), oxygen saturation below 90% (AHR: 3.3; 95%CI: 1.40, 7.87), edema (AHR 2.9; 95%CI: 1.45, 5.66) and HIV infection (AHR: 2.8; 95%CI: 1.24, 6.36) were predictors of mortality for children diagnosed with severe acute malnutrition.

CONCLUSION

The overall survival status of severe acute malnourished children was low as compared to national sphere standards and previous reports in the literature. The major predictors of mortality were oxygen saturation below 90%, altered consciousness, HIV infection, edema and failed appetite test. Therefore, early screening of complications, close follow up and regular monitoring of sever acute malnourished children might improve child survival rate.

Determinants of Mortality Among Severely Malnourished Children in Northern Nigeria

Objectives

Severe Acute Malnutrition is a significant cause of mortality in children under the age of 5 years in low-resource settings, including Northern Nigeria. The study aimed to determine the associations between selected risk factors and mortality outcomes in children admitted with SAM in a facility in Katsina State, Northern Nigeria.

Methods

A prospective observational cohort of 201 children aged 6 to 59 months who were admitted with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) in stabilization centers in Katsina State, Northern Nigeria between May 18, 2021, and July 20, 2021, (63 days) were assessed followed up. Outcomes were analyzed using Kaplan-Meir analysis to estimate time to death, and Cox proportional-hazard regression model was used to determine predictors of mortality.

Results

The log-rank test showed significant differences in the probability of death between categories of diarrheal status (log-rank statistic = 9.760, P = .021) and presence of existing disease (comorbidity) (log-rank statistic = 5.338, P = .021). The study identified that severely malnourished children admitted with comorbidities showed significant association with time to event (death) (AHR: 4.109, 95% CI: 1.51, 32.60). The estimated mean time until death was 57.9 days (±3.0) for children without comorbidities and 20.1 (±3.0) days for children with comorbidities. The median survival time was 18 days for children with comorbidities.

Conclusion

The presence of comorbidities was significantly associated with mortality. Severely malnourished children with comorbidities had 4 times higher mortality risk than severely malnourished children admitted without comorbidities. Clinicians and health workers should give due emphasis to the early detection and effective management of comorbidities in children with severe acute malnutrition.

Comorbidities and Factors Associated with Mortality among Children under Five Years Admitted with Severe Acute Malnutrition in the Nutritional Unit of Jinja Regional Referral Hospital, Eastern Uganda

Background

Mortality among children with severe acute malnutrition remains an immense health concern in the hospitals in developing countries, but its attributes are not completely assessed in various hospital settings. The aim of this study was to determine the proportion of mortality, the comorbidities, and factors associated with in-hospital mortality among children under five years of age admitted with severe acute malnutrition at Jinja Regional Referral Hospital, Eastern Uganda.

Methods

This was a hospital-based analytical and descriptive prospective cohort study conducted in the nutritional unit of Jinja Regional Referral Hospital. A total of 338 children and their caretakers who met the criteria were consecutively enrolled into the study. Descriptive statistics were used to each of the independent factors, and comorbidities were subjected to chi-squared test followed by logistic regression analysis to assess its association incidence of mortality among children. All independent variables with p values ≤ 0.05 were entered into a multivariate model for factors and comorbidities independently. Factors and comorbidities with p values ≤ 0.05 were considered as associates of mortality among children.

Results

Of the 338 children under 5 years of age enrolled, 49 (14.5%) died, although the majority of children were diagnosed with dehydration, 128 (37.9%); pneumonia, 127(37.6%); and malaria, 87(25.7%). Anemia (aRR = 2.9, 95% CI: 1.23-6.62, p = 0.01), bacteremia (aRR = 10.0, 95% CI: 3.62-29.01, p = 0.01), HIV (aRR = 4.8, 95% CI: 1.42-16.30, p < 0.01), TB (aRR = 4.3, 95% CI: 1.28-14.49, p < 0.02), and shock (aRR = 60.9, 95% CI: 9.05-410.28, p < 0.01) were the comorbidities significantly associated with a likelihood of mortality.

Conclusions

The mortality among children under 5 years of age admitted with severe acute malnutrition is still high (14.5% versus 5%). The comorbidities are significantly associated with mortality. The clinicians are recommended to follow-up closely patients with severe acute malnutrition and to focus on the critical comorbidities identified.

Time to Recovery and Its Predictors among Children 6-59 Months Admitted with Severe Acute Malnutrition to East Amhara Hospitals, Northeast Ethiopia: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Malnutrition has been among the most common public health problems in the world, especially in developing countries including Ethiopia. Even though the Ethiopian government launched stabilization centers in different hospitals, there are limited data on how long children will stay in treatment centers to recover from severe acute malnutrition. This study aimed to assess the time to recovery and its predictors among children 6-59 months with severe acute malnutrition admitted to public hospitals in East Amhara, Northeast Ethiopia.

Methods

Institution-based, prospective cohort study was conducted in seven public hospitals in East Amhara and a total of 341 children were included in the study. The results were determined by Kaplan-Meier procedure, log-rank test, and Cox-regression to predict the time to recovery and to identify the predictors of recovery time. Variables having P value ≤0.2 during binary analysis were entered into multivarable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. P value <0.05 was considered statistically significant.

Results

The nutritional recovery rate was 6.9 per 100 person-days with a median nutritional recovery time of 11 days (an interquartile range of 6). The independent predictors like using NG tube for feeding (AHR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.27-0.71), not entering phase 2 on day 10 (AHR = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.12-0.29), and being admitted to referral hospitals (AHR = 0.52 95% CI: 0.37-0.73) were associated with longer periods of nutritional recovery time.

Conclusion

Both the recovery rate and the recovery time were within the acceptable minimum standards. But, special attention has to be given to children who failed to enter phase 2 on day 10, for those who needed NG tube for feeding, and for those admitted to referral hospitals during inpatient management.

Clinico-biochemical profile of sick children with severe acute malnutrition

Objective

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) classified as edematous and marasmus, however, Kwashiorker represents the most severe phenotype of edematous malnutrition. The aim of this study was to describe the clinico-biochemical profile in sick children with severe acute malnutrition.

Materials and Methods

This is a descriptive cross-sectional study, which included children aged 6 to 60 months, fulfilling the World Health Organization (WHO) criteria of severe acute malnutrition. We collected data on demography, anthropometry, history, and clinical examination. Investigations included arterial blood gas analysis, serum electrolytes, calcium, serum albumin, and blood sugar. P value < 0.05 was considered significant.

Results

One hundred twenty-two children with SAM were recruited, out of which 65 (53.27%) had edematous malnutrition and 57 (46.7%) had nonedematous malnutrition. Out of total children, 90 (73.77%) were discharged from hospital, 18 (14.7%) died, and 14 (11.4%) were left against medical advice. Out of 122 children with SAM, edematous children were younger (25.7 vs. 34.5 months, P = 0.002). Children with edematous malnutrition were more likely to have pneumonia (P = 0.04), acute gastroenteritis (P < 0.001), hyponatremia (P = 0.04), metabolic acidosis (P = 0.005), and hypocalcemia (P = 0.006) when compared with nonedematous children. Edematous malnutrition has 1.3 and 1.4 times more risk of death and leave against medical advice (LAMA) respectively as compared to nonedematous malnutrition. Mortality was higher in edematous malnutrition (12, 66.6%) than nonedematous malnutrition (6, 33.3%).

Conclusion

Edematous malnutrition was commonly prevalent in 1 to 3 years of children and clinical and biochemical abnormalities frequently co-exist with edematous malnutrition.

Factors associated with mortality in children under five years old hospitalized for Severe Acute Malnutrition in Limpopo province, South Africa, 2014-2018: A cross-sectional analytic study

Background

In South Africa, 30.9% of children under five years with Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) died in 2018. We aimed to identify factors associated with mortality among children under five years hospitalized with SAM in Limpopo province, South Africa.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study including children under five years admitted with SAM from 2014 to 2018 in public hospitals of Limpopo province. We extracted socio-demographic and clinical data from hospital records. We used logistic regression to identify factors associated with mortality.

Findings

We included 956 children, 50.2% (480/956) male and 49.8% (476/956) female. The median age was 13 months (inter quartile range: 9–19 months). The overall SAM mortality over the study period was 25.9% (248/956). The most common complications were diarrhea, 63.8% (610/956), and lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs), 42.4% (405/956). Factors associated with mortality included herbal medication use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR): 2.2, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4–3.5, p = 0.001), poor appetite (aOR: 2.7, 95% CI: 1.4–5.2, p = 0.003), Mid-upper circumference (MUAC) <11.5 cm (aOR: 3.0, 95% CI: 1.9–4.7, p<0.001), lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) (aOR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.2–2.0, p<0.001), anemia (aOR: 2.5, 95% CI: 1.1–5.3, p = 0.021), hypoglycemia (aOR: 12.4, 95% CI: 7.1–21.8, p<0.001) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (aOR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6–3.3, p<0.001).

Interpretation

Herbal medication use, poor appetite, LRTIs, anemia, hypoglycemia, and HIV infection were associated with mortality among children with SAM. These factors should guide management of children with SAM.

The recovery rate from severe acute malnutrition among under-five years of children remains low in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies

Background

Globally, Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) has been reduced by only 11% over the past 20 years and continues to be a significant cause of morbidity and mortality. So far, in Sub-Saharan Africa, several primary studies have been conducted on recovery rate and determinants of recovery from SAM in under-five children. However, comprehensive reviews that would have a shred of strong evidence for designing interventions are lacking. So, this review and meta-analysis was conducted to bridge this gap.

Methods

A systematic review of observational studies published in the years between 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2018 was conducted following the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) statement. Two reviewers have been searched and extracted data from CINAHL (EBSCO), MEDLINE (via Ovid), Emcare, PubMed databases, and Google scholar. Articles' quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale by two independent reviewers, and only studies with fair to good quality were included in the final analysis. The review presented the pooled recovery rate from SAM and an odds ratio of risk factors affecting recovery rate after checking for heterogeneity and publication bias. The review has been registered in PROSPERO with protocol number CRD42019122085.

Result

Children with SAM from 54 primary studies (n = 140,148) were included. A pooled rate of recovery was 71.2% (95% CI: 68.5–73.8; I² = 98.9%). Children who received routine medication (Pooled Odds ratio (POR):1.85;95% CI: 1.49–2.29; I² = 0.0%), older age (POR: 1.99;95% CI: 1.29–3.08; I² = 80.6%), and absence of co-morbidity (POR:3.2;95% CI: 2.15–4.76; I² = 78.7%) had better odds of recovery. This systematic review and meta-analysis suggestes HIV infected children had lower recovery rate from SAM (POR; 0.19; 95% CI: 0.09–0.39; I² = 42.9%) compared to those non-infected.

Conclusion

The meta-analysis deciphers that the pooled recovery rate was below the SPHERE standard, and further works would be needed to improve the recovery rate. So, factors that were identified might help to revise the plan set by the countries, and further research might be required to explore health fascilities fidelity to the WHO SAM management protocol.

Mortality rate and predictors of time to death in children with severe acute malnutrition treated in Felege-Hiwot Referral Hospital Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

Objectives

This study aimed to determine mortality rate, time to death and factors affecting the time to death among children with severe acute malnutrition admitted to therapeutic feeding unit of Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahirdar.

Result

A total of 401 children with severe acute malnutrition who were admitted to therapeutic feeding units from September 2012 to January 2016 were included in the study. The incidence of death rate was 8.47% (95% CI 6.11%, 11.65%). The median time to death was 3 days (Inter Quartile Range of 4 days). Children’s of age > 24 months (AHR = 0.27; 95% CI 0.1, 0.73), fully vaccinated status (AHR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.07, 0.36), HIV infection (AHR = 3.82; 95% CI 1.3, 11.15) and congestive heart failure (AHR = 6.98; 95% CI 2.42, 20.09) were significant predictors of mortality among children admitted for severe acute malnutrition.

Socioeconomic, Demographic, and Environmental Determinants of Under-5 Mortality in Ethiopia: Evidence from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2016

Background. Though Ethiopia has made impressive progress in reducing child mortality in the past two decades, the reduction of under-five mortalities is a major concern for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) introduced in 2016 targeted to reduce under-5 mortality rate below 25 deaths of under-5 per 1,000 live births by 2030. This study aims to assess the risk factors attributed to under-five mortalities in Ethiopia region based on Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey 2016 dataset. Methods. The study was a secondary analysis of 2016, Ethiopian Demographic Health Survey and the information collected from 10,274 children born five years preceding the survey was considered in the study, and variables like maternal social and demographic characteristics, child demographic characteristics, and cultural and environmental factors were considered as determinants of under-five deaths. The study used descriptive statistics and logistic regression model to explore significant risk factors accredited to under-five deaths in Ethiopia. Results. Maternal education attainment, women age at first birth, women current age, child birth order, preceding birth interval, birth type, and occupation of mother were found significant predictors of under-five mortalities. Being born to mother with no education (OR=2.610, 95% CI: 1.598, 4.265), short birth spacing 1 to 18 months birth intervals (OR=2.164, 95% CI: 1.821, 2.570), birth order of five and above, and 11 to 17 years ages at birth (OR=1.556, 95% CI: 1.243, 1.949) were factors significantly associated with increased risk of under-five mortalities. Conclusion. The magnitude of under-five deaths in the study area was decreasing. However, under-five mortality rates have stayed higher in some regions. Therefore, interventions that focus on birth spacing, mothers living in Affar and Gambela, and uneducated mothers are required for improving child survival in Ethiopia.