Unmet Supportive Care Needs Among Cancer Patients in Sub-Saharan African Countries: A Mixed Method Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

Supportive cancer care is vital to reducing the current disparities in cancer outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including poor survival and low quality of life, and ultimately achieving equity in cancer care. This is the first review aimed to evaluate the extent of unmet supportive care needs and identify their contributing factors among patients with cancer in SSA.

METHODS

Six electronic databases (CINAHL, Embase, Medline [Ovid], PsycINFO, PubMed, and Cochrane Library of Databases] were systematically searched. Studies that addressed one or more domains of unmet supportive cancer care needs were included. Findings were analyzed using narrative analysis and meta-analysis, as appropriate.

RESULT

Eleven articles out of 2732 were retained in the review. The pooled prevalence of perceived unmet need for cancer care in SSA was 63% (95% CI: 45, 81) for physical, 59% (95% CI: 45, 72) for health information and system, 58% (95% CI: 42, 74) for psychological, 44% (95% CI: 29, 59) for patient care and support, and 43% (95% CI: 23, 63) for sexual. Older age, female sex, rural residence, advanced cancer stage, and low access to health information were related to high rates of multiple unmet needs within supportive care domains.

CONCLUSION

In SSA, optimal cancer care provision was low, up to two-thirds of patients reported unmet needs for one or more domains. Strengthening efforts to develop comprehensive and integrated systems for supportive care services are keys to improving the clinical outcome, survival, and quality of life of cancer patients in SSA.

Gender-based violence in the context of armed conflict in Northern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Gender-based violence (GBV) particularly against women is unfortunately common during armed conflicts. No rigorous and comprehensive empirical work has documented the extent of GBV and its consequences that took place during the two years of devastating armed conflict in Northern Ethiopia. This study aims to assess GBV and its consequences in war-torn areas of northern Ethiopia.

METHODS

We used a qualitative method augmented by quantitative method to enroll research participants. We conducted in-depth interviews to characterize the lived experiences of GBV survivors. All interviews were conducted confidentially. The data were collected to the point of data saturation. All interviews were transcribed verbatim into local language, translated into English, and analyzed using a thematic analysis approach. We also used reports from healthcare facilities and conducted a descriptive analysis of the demographic characteristics of study participants.

RESULTS

One thousand one hundred seventy-seven persons reported GBV to healthcare providers. The qualitative study identified several forms of violence (sexual, physical, and psychological). Gang rape against women including minors as young as 14 years old girls was reported. Additionally, the perpetrators sexually violated women who were pregnant, and elderly women as old as 65 years, who took refuge in religious institutions. The perpetrators committed direct assaults on the body with items (e.g., burning the body with cigarette fire) or weapons, holding women and girls as captives, and deprivation of sleep and food. GBV survivors reported stigma, prejudice, suicide attempts, nightmares, and hopelessness. GBV survivors dealt with the traumatic stress by outmigration (leaving their residences), seeking care at healthcare facilities, self-isolation, being silent, dropping out of school, and seeking counseling.

CONCLUSION

GBV survivors were subjected to multiple and compounding types of violence, with a wide range of adverse health consequences for survivors and their families. GBV survivors require multifaceted interventions including psychological, health, and economic support to rehabilitate them to lead a productive life.

Predicting child development and school readiness, at age 5, for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children in Australia's Northern Territory

BACKGROUND

Positive early development is critical in shaping children's lifelong health and wellbeing. Identifying children at risk of poor development is important in targeting early interventions to children and families most in need of support. We aimed to develop a predictive model that could inform early support for vulnerable children.

METHODS

We analysed linked administrative records for a birth cohort of 2,380 Northern Territory children (including 1,222 Aboriginal children) who were in their first year of school in 2015 and had a completed record from the Australian Early Development Census (AEDC). The AEDC measures early child development (school readiness) across five domains of development. We fitted prediction models, for AEDC weighted summary scores, using a Partial Least Square Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) considering four groups of factors-pre-pregnancy, pregnancy, known at birth, and child-related factors. We first assessed the models' internal validity and then the out-of-sample predictive power (external validity) using the PLSpredict procedure.

RESULT

We identified separate predictive models, with a good fit, for Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal children. For Aboriginal children, a significant pre-pregnancy predictor of better outcomes was higher socioeconomic status (direct, β = 0.22 and indirect, β = 0.16). Pregnancy factors (gestational diabetes and maternal smoking (indirect, β = -0.09) and child-related factors (English as a second language and not attending preschool (direct, β = -0.28) predicted poorer outcomes. Further, pregnancy and child-related factors partially mediated the effects of pre-pregnancy factors; and child-related factors fully mediated the effects of pregnancy factors on AEDC weighted scores. For non-Aboriginal children, pre-pregnancy factors (increasing maternal age, socioeconomic status, parity, and occupation of the primary carer) directly predicted better outcomes (β = 0.29). A technical observation was that variance in AEDC weighted scores was not equally captured across all five AEDC domains; for Aboriginal children results were based on only three domains (emotional maturity; social competence, and language and cognitive skills (school-based)) and for non-Aboriginal children, on a single domain (language and cognitive skills (school-based)).

CONCLUSION

The models give insight into the interplay of multiple factors at different stages of a child's development and inform service and policy responses. Recruiting children and their families for early support programs should consider both the direct effects of the predictors and their interactions. The content and application of the AEDC measurement need to be strengthened to ensure all domains of a child's development are captured equally.

Mortality in hemodialysis patients in Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study in three centers

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is between 10 and 15% worldwide. Ethiopia is seeing a consistent increase in the number of dialysis patients. Patients on chronic hemodialysis have high mortality rates, but there is little information available in Ethiopia. Thus, this study looked into patient mortality and the factors that contributed to it at three dialysis centers in Addis Ababa for hemodialysis patients.

METHOD

A facility-based retrospective follow-up study was employed among End-Stage Renal Disease patients on hemodialysis from 2016 to 2020 at St. Paul Millennium Medical College (SPMMC), Zewditu Memorial Hospital (ZMH), and Menelik II Hospital. The proportional hazard assumption was checked by using the Log (-log (St)) plots and tests. Life-table analysis was fitted to estimate the one and five-year's survival probability of these patients and Cox Proportional regression analysis to model the predictors of mortality at p-value < 0.05.

RESULT

Over the course of 2772 person-months, 139 patients were tracked. Of these patients, 88 (63.3%) were male and the mean age (± SD) of the patients was 36.8 (± 11.9) years. During the follow-up period, 24 (17%) of the patients died, 67 (48.2%) were alive, 43 (30.9%) received a kidney transplant, and 5 (3.6%) were lost to follow-up. The mean survival time was 46.2 months (95% CI: 41.8, 50.5). According to estimates, there were 104 deaths per 1000 person-years at the end of the follow-up period. The likelihood that these patients would survive for one and 5 years was 91%% and 65%, respectively. Our analysis showed that patients with hypertension (Adjusted Hazard Rate (AHR) = 4.33; 95% CI: 1.02, 34.56), cardiovascular disease (AHR = 4.69; 95% CI: 1.32, 16.80), and infection during dialysis (AHR = 3.89; 95% CI: 1.96, 13.80) were more likely to die.

CONCLUSION

The hemodialysis patients' death rate in the chosen dialysis facilities was high. Preventing and treating comorbidities and complications during dialysis would probably reduce the mortality of CKD patients. Furthermore, the best way to avoid and manage chronic kidney disease is to take a complete and integrated approach to manage hypertension, diabetes, and obesity.

Mapping national, regional and local prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia using geospatial analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to map the national, regional and local prevalence of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Nationwide cross-sectional survey in Ethiopia combined with georeferenced ecological level data from publicly available sources.

PARTICIPANTS

9801 participants aged between 15 and 69 years.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of hypertension and diabetes were collected using the WHO's STEPS survey approach. Bayesian model-based geostatistical techniques were used to estimate hypertension and diabetes prevalence at national, regional and pixel levels (1×1 km²) with corresponding 95% credible intervals (95% CrIs).

RESULTS

The national prevalence was 19.2% (95% CI: 18.4 to 20.0) for hypertension and 2.8% (95% CI: 2.4 to 3.1) for diabetes. Substantial variation was observed in the prevalence of these diseases at subnational levels, with the highest prevalence of hypertension observed in Addis Ababa (30.6%) and diabetes in Somali region (8.7%). Spatial overlap of high hypertension and diabetes prevalence was observed in some regions such as the Southern Nations, Nationalities and People's region and Addis Ababa. Population density (number of people/km²) was positively associated with the prevalence of hypertension (β: 0.015; 95% CrI: 0.003-0.027) and diabetes (β: 0.046; 95% CrI: 0.020-0.069); whereas altitude in kilometres was negatively associated with the prevalence of diabetes (β: -0.374; 95% CrI: -0.711 to -0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

Spatial clustering of hypertension and diabetes was observed at subnational and local levels in Ethiopia, which was significantly associated with population density and altitude. The variation at the subnational level illustrates the need to include environmental drivers in future NCDs burden estimation. Thus, targeted and integrated interventions in high-risk areas might reduce the burden of hypertension and diabetes in Ethiopia.

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa: a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O'Malley's methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed.

RESULTS

Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised.

Behavioral and environmental determinants of acute diarrhea among under-five children from public health facilities of Siyadebirena Wayu district, north Shoa zone, Amhara regional state, Ethiopia: Unmatched case-control study

BACKGROUND

Acute diarrhea is a major public health problem in the world. Next to pneumonia, it is the leading cause of death in children under five years old. Globally, even though childhood diarrhea disease kills millions, the interaction of socio-demographic, behavioral, and environmental factors of acute diarrhea in children aged 6-59 months is not investigated yet in the current study area.

OBJECTIVE

To determine behavioral and environmental predictors of acute diarrhea among under-five children from public health facilities of Siyadebirena Wayu district, North Shoa, Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia, 2019.

METHODS

A facility-based unmatched case-control study was conducted from March 12, 2019, to May 12, 2019. A total of 315 under-five children were included in the study (105 cases and 210 controls). A systematic random sampling technique was used to select study participants. Data were collected by a structured questionnaire and analyzed by using SPSS. To analyze the data, bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis was used.

RESULTS

The study showed that average family monthly income of 12-23 USD (AOR = 6. 22; 95% CI: 1.30, 29.64), hand washing practice of mothers/ care givers with water only (AOR = 3.75; 95% CI: 1.16, 12.13), improper disposal of infant feces (AOR = 11.01; 95% CI: 3.37, 35.96), not treating drinking water at home (AOR = 9.36; 95% CI: 2.73, 32.08), children consuming left-over food stored at room temperature (AOR = 5.52; 95% CI: 1.60, 19.03) and poor knowledge of the respondents about the risk factors for diarrhea were the determinants that significantly associated with acute childhood diarrhea.

CONCLUSION

The potential predictors of childhood diarrhea morbidity were improper hand-washing practice, not treating drinking water at home, unsafe disposal of children's feces, children consuming left-over food stored at room temperature, and having poor knowledge about the major risk factors for diarrhea. Thus, awareness of the community on hygiene and sanitation focusing on proper handling of human excreta, safe water handling, proper hand washing practice, and proper management of leftover food should be enhanced to prevent children from acute diarrhea diseases.

"We do not know how to screen and provide treatment": a qualitative study of barriers and enablers of implementing perinatal depression health services in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Qualitative studies evaluating maternal mental health services are lacking in Ethiopia, and the available evidence targets severe mental illnesses in the general population. We conducted a qualitative study to explore barriers to, enablers of, or opportunities for perinatal depression health services implementations in Ethiopia.

METHODS

We conducted a total of 13 face to face interviews with mental and maternal health service administrators from different levels of the Ethiopian healthcare system. We interviewed in Amharic (a local language), transcribed and translated into English, and imported into NVivo. We analysed the translated interviews inductively using thematic framework analysis.

RESULTS

The study identified: (i) health administrators' low literacy about perinatal depression as individual level barriers; (ii) community low awareness, health-seeking behaviours and cultural norms about perinatal depression as socio-cultural level barriers; (iii) lack of government capacity, readiness, and priority of screening and managing perinatal depression as organisational level barriers; and (iv) lack of mental health policy, strategies, and healthcare systems as structural level barriers of perinatal mental health implementation in Ethiopia. The introduction of the new Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGap), health professionals' commitment, and simplicity of screening programs were identified enablers of, or opportunities for, perinatal mental health service implementation.

CONCLUSIONS

This qualitative inquiry identified important barriers and potential opportunities that could be used to address perinatal depression in Ethiopia. Building the capacity of policy makers and planners, strengthening the mental healthcare system and governance should be a priority issue for an effective integration of maternal mental health care with the routine maternal health services in Ethiopia.

Anemia and Contributing Factors in Severely Malnourished Infants and Children Aged between 0 and 59 Months Admitted to the Treatment Centers of the Amhara Region, Ethiopia: A Multicenter Chart Review Study

BACKGROUND

Anemia among severely malnourished children is a double burden that could make the treatment outcome of severe acute malnutrition (SAM) more unfavorable. The burden and the factors are, however, uncovered among children in the Amhara region. Therefore, the study was aimed at determining the prevalence of anemia and identifying contributing factors in severely malnourished children aged between 0 and 59 months admitted to the treatment centers of the Amhara region referral hospitals.

METHODS

A facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted that included 1,301 infants and children, who developed SAM and were admitted to the three referral hospitals of the Amhara region. Data were extracted using a data extraction checklist. The binary logistic regression analysis was employed to show an association between the dependent and independent variables. Multicollinearity was assessed using the variance inflation factor (VIF) and no problem was detected (overall VIF = 1.67). The presence of association was declared based on the p-value (≤0.05), and the adjusted odds ratio with its respective 95% confidence interval was used to report the direction, as well as the strength of association.

RESULTS

About 41.43% (95% CI: 38.78%-44.13%) of severely malnourished infants and children have developed anemia, of which around half (47%) of them were under six months old. Rural residence (AOR = 1.56; 95% CI: 1.14-2.12) and HIV infection (AOR = 2.00; 95% CI: 1.04-3.86) were significantly associated with higher odds of anemia. Furthermore, being exclusively breastfed (AOR = 0.57; 95% CI 0.39-0.83) remarkably reduced the likelihood of anemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This data confirms that anemia among severely malnourished infants and children is a public health problem in the Amhara region. Infants younger than six months were at a higher risk of anemia. Being a rural resident and contracting HIV infection have elevated the occurrence of anemia, whereas being exclusively breastfed decreased the risk. Therefore, the study gives an insight to policymakers and planners to strengthen the existing exclusive breastfeeding practice. Strategies being practiced to prevent HIV transmission and early detection, as well as treatment, should also be strengthened. Furthermore, mothers/caretakers of infants and children residing in the rural areas deserve special attention through delivering nutrition education.

Effect of perinatal depression on risk of adverse infant health outcomes in mother-infant dyads in Gondar town: a causal analysis

BACKGROUND

Approximately one-third of pregnant and postnatal women in Ethiopia experience depression posing a substantial health burden for these women and their families. Although associations between postnatal depression and worse infant health have been observed, there have been no studies to date assessing the causal effects of perinatal depression on infant health in Ethiopia. We applied longitudinal data and recently developed causal inference methods that reduce the risk of bias to estimate associations between perinatal depression and infant diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI), and malnutrition in Gondar Town, Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cohort of 866 mother-infant dyads were followed from infant birth for 6 months and the cumulative incidence of ARI, diarrhea, and malnutrition were assessed. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to assess the presence of maternal depression, the Integrated Management of Newborn and Childhood Illnesses (IMNCI) guidelines were used to identify infant ARI and diarrhea, and the mid upper arm circumference (MUAC) was used to identify infant malnutrition. The risk difference (RD) due to maternal depression for each outcome was estimated using targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust causal inference method used to reduce bias in observational studies.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of diarrhea, ARI and malnutrition during 6-month follow-up was 17.0% (95%CI: 14.5, 19.6), 21.6% (95%CI: 18.89, 24.49), and 14.4% (95%CI: 12.2, 16.9), respectively. There was no association between antenatal depression and ARI (RD = - 1.3%; 95%CI: - 21.0, 18.5), diarrhea (RD = 0.8%; 95%CI: - 9.2, 10.9), or malnutrition (RD = -7.3%; 95%CI: - 22.0, 21.8). Similarly, postnatal depression was not associated with diarrhea (RD = -2.4%; 95%CI: - 9.6, 4.9), ARI (RD = - 3.2%; 95%CI: - 12.4, 5.9), or malnutrition (RD = 0.9%; 95%CI: - 7.6, 9.5).

CONCLUSION

There was no evidence for an association between perinatal depression and the risk of infant diarrhea, ARI, and malnutrition amongst women in Gondar Town. Previous reports suggesting increased risks resulting from maternal depression may be due to unobserved confounding.

Postnatal depression and its association with adverse infant health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Postnatal Depression (PND) is a mood disorder that steals motherhood and affects the health and development of a newborn. While the impact of PND on motherhood and newborn in developed countries are well described, its epidemiology and health consequences in infant is not well known in middle-and low-income countries. The objective of this review was to determine the burden and association of PND with adverse infant health outcomes in low-and middle- income countries.

Methods

We searched observational studies written in the English language and conducted in middle-and low-income countries between December 1st, 2007, and December 31st, 2017. The CINHAL, MEDLINE, Emcare, PubMed, Psych Info, and Scopus databases were searched for the following search terms: PND, acute respiratory infection, pneumonia, diarrhea, exclusive breastfeeding, common infant illnesses, and malnutrition. We excluded studies in which the primary outcomes were not measured following a standardized approach. We have meta-analyzed the estimates from primary studies by adjusting for possible publication bias and heterogeneity. The analysis was conducted in Stata 14. The study was registered in PROSPERO protocol number CRD42017082624.

Result

Fifty-eight studies on PND prevalence (among 63,293 women) and 17 studies (among 32,454 infants) on infant health outcomes were included. PND prevalence was higher in the low-income countries (Pooled prevalence (PP) = 25.8%; 95%CI: 17.9–33.8%) than in the middle-income countries (PP = 20.8%; 95%CI: 18.4–23.1%) and reached its peak in five to ten weeks after birth. Poor obstetric history and social support, low economic and educational status, and history of exposure to violence were associated with an increased risk of PND. The risk of having adverse infant health outcomes was 31% higher among depressed compared to non-depressed postnatal mothers (Pooled relative risk (PRR) = 1.31; 95%CI: 1.17–1.48). Malnutrition (1.39; 1.21–1.61), non-exclusive breastfeeding (1.55; 1.39–1.74), and common infant illnesses (2.55; 1.41–4.61) were the main adverse health outcomes identified.

Conclusions

One in four and one in five postnatal mothers were depressed in low and middle-income countries, respectively. Causes of depression could be explained by social, maternal, and psychological constructs. High risk of adverse infant health outcomes was associated with PND. Timely screening of PND and evidence-based interventions were a pressing need in low and middle-income countries.

Effect of antenatal depression on adverse birth outcomes in Gondar town, Ethiopia: A community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of antenatal depression on pregnancy outcomes has been well investigated in developed countries, but few studies have been conducted in low-income countries. As depression is significantly affected by socio-economic and cultural factors, it would be difficult to generalize evidence from high-income countries to low-income countries. We conducted a community-based cohort study to estimate the incidence of adverse birth outcomes and the direct and indirect pathways via which depression and other psychosocial risk factors may impact such birth outcomes within Gondar town, Ethiopia.

METHODS

The study followed 916 pregnant women who were screened for antenatal depression using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). We also assessed the incidence of preterm births, Low Birth Weight (LBW) and stillbirths. Modified Poisson regression was used to estimate the relative risk of predictors on adverse birth outcomes and a Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM) was used to estimate the direct and indirect effect of antenatal depression and other psychological risk factors on adverse birth outcomes.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of stillbirth, LBW and preterm was 1.90%, 5.25%, and 16.42%, respectively. The risk of preterm birth was 1.61, 1.46, 1.49, and 1.77 times higher among participants who identified as Muslim, reported being fearful of delivery, were government employee's, and who had no antenatal care services, respectively. Partner support moderated the association between depression, preterm birth, and LBW. Depression had no direct effect on birth outcomes but indirectly affected preterm birth via partner support. Religion had both direct and indirect effects on preterm birth, while occupation and fear of delivery had direct effects. The risk of LBW was 9.44 and 2.19 times higher among preterm births and those who had exposure to tobacco, respectively. Stress coping was indirectly associated, and preterm birth and tobacco exposure were directly associated with LBW. The risk of stillbirth was 3.22 times higher in women with antenatal depression and 73% lower in women with higher coping abilities.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a high incidence of all adverse birth outcomes in Gondar Town. Depression and psychosocial risk factors had important indirect negative effects on risk, while partner support provided a positive indirect effect on the incidence of adverse birth outcomes. Interventions that focus on increasing partner engagement and participation in antenatal support may help reduce adverse birth outcomes by enhancing maternal resilience.

Epidemiology of postnatal depression and its associated factors in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

Postnatal depression (PND) is a major cause of negative health-related behaviors and outcomes during infancy, childhood and adolescent period. In Africa, the burden of postnatal depression is high. However, it is under-investigated hence under-treated. To fill this information gap and to advise further interventions, we aimed at analyzing its epidemiology in Africa.

Methods

We searched observational studies conducted in Africa and published in between 01/01/2007 and 30/06/2018 in CINHAL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Psychiatry online, PubMed, SCOPES, and Emcare databases. We assessed the quality of the studies using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and included studies with good quality. We evaluated the heterogeneity using the Higgins I² statistics. We used a random-effects model to pool estimates. We assessed publication bias using the funnel plot and Egger's test statistics and adjusted using Tweedie’s and Duval Trim and Fill analysis. The protocol has been registered in the PROSPERO (Protocol No. CRD42018100461).

Results

Nineteen studies involving 40,953 postnatal mothers were part of this systematic review and meta-analysis. The overall pooled prevalence of PND was 16.84% (95% CI: 14.49% –19.19%). The odds of having PND was higher among women with a poor obstetric condition (POR = 2.11; 95% CI: 1.11–4.01) and history of adverse birth and infant health outcomes (POR = 2.85; 95% CI: 1.29–6.25). Having a history of common mental health disorders (POR = 2.47; 95% CI: 1.51–4.04), poor social support (POR = 2.06; 95% CI: 1.05–4.05), lower economic status (POR = 2.38; 95% CI: 1.75–3.23), and those who had exposure to a different form of intimate partner violence (POR = 2.87; 95% CI: 1.60–5.16) had higher odds of PND.

Conclusion

While robust prevalence studies are scarce, our review indicated a high prevalence rate of postnatal depression. The analysis also identified postpartum women at increased risk of PND. Therefore, there is a need to design and escalate comprehensive strategies to decrease its burden, focusing on those women at risk of PND.

Epidemiology of antenatal depression in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Antenatal depression is a serious problem worldwide that has devastating consequences not only for the mother but also for the child and family. The pooled evidence regarding the prevalence and associated factors of antenatal depression is rare in Africa. Hence this review aimed to investigate the prevalence and associated factors of antenatal depression in Africa.

METHODS

We searched CINHAL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, Psychiatry online, PubMed, SCOPES, and Emcare databases for English written observational studies conducted in Africa from 2007 to 2018.Quality of studies was assessed using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS), and studies with good quality were included in the final review. Heterogeneity across studies was assessed using the I² and Higgins test. Publication bias was checked using Funnel plot symmetry, and Egger's regression test and adjustment was made by using Duval and Tweedie's Trim and Fill analysis. A random effect Meta-analysis was employed to determine the pooled estimates with 95% confidence interval (CI). Stata 14 was used for analysis. The review protocol has been registered in PROSPERO number CRD42018106717.

RESULT

Of the 175 studies identified, 28 studies with an overall sample size of 17,938 were included. According to the random effect model following trim and fill analysis, the pooled prevalence of antenatal depression in Africa was 26.3% (95%CI: 22.2, 30.4%). Economic difficulties [POR = 1.87;95%CI:1.25,2.78,I² = 88.1%], unfavorable marital condition [POR = 4.17;95% CI:1.75, 9.94, I² = 81.2%], poor support from relatives [POR = 1.36;95% CI:1.18, 1.56, I² = 78.0%], bad obstetric history [POR = 2.30;95% CI:1.81, 2.92), I² = 81.7%], and history of mental health problem [POR = 2.97; 95% CI:1.74, 5.06, I² = 92.0%]were the factors associated with antenatal depression.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of antenatal depression is high in Africa, which showed that one in four pregnant women had depression. Pregnant mothers who had economic difficulties, bad obstetric history, poor support from relatives, previous mental health problems, and unfavorable marital conditions were at higher risk of antenatal depression. Therefore these factors should be considered while designing mental health care services for pregnant mothers.

Antenatal depression and its potential causal mechanisms among pregnant mothers in Gondar town: application of structural equation model

BACKGROUND

Various forms of life stressors have been implicated as causes of antenatal depression. However, there is a lack of understanding of which forms of stress lead to antenatal depression and through what mechanisms. Modeling stress processes within a theoretical model framework can enhance an understanding of the mechanisms underlying relationships between stressors and stress outcomes. This study used the stress process model framework to explore the causal mechanisms underlying antenatal depression in Gondar, Ethiopia.

METHODS

Questionnaires, using an Online Data collection Kit (ODK) tool were administered face-to-face in 916 pregnant women in their second and third trimesters. Pregnant women were included from six randomly selected urban districts in Gondar, Ethiopia during June and August 2018. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) was used to screen for antenatal depression. A Structural Equation Model (SEM) was employed to explore the direct, indirect, and total effect of stressors and mediators of antenatal depression.

RESULT

Sixty-three participants (6.9%) reported symptoms of depression. Of these, 16 (4.7%) and 47 (8.1%) were in their second and third trimesters, respectively. The SEM demonstrated several direct effects on antenatal depression scores including unplanned pregnancy (standardized β = 0.15), having a history of common mental health disorder (standardized β = 0.18) and fear of giving birth to the current pregnancy (standardized β = 0.29), all of which were associated with a higher depression score. Adequate food access for the last 3 months (standardized β = - 0.11) was associated with decreased depression score. Social support (β = - 0.21), marital agreement (β = - 0.28), and partner support (β = -.18) appeared to partially mediate the link between the identified stressors and the risk of antenatal depression.

CONCLUSION

Both direct and indirect effects contributed to higher antenatal depression score in Ethiopian women. The three psychosocial resources namely marital agreement, social and partner support, mediated reduced antenatal depression scores. Early screening of antenatal depression and enhancing the three psychosocial resources would help to improve maternal resilience.

Time to recovery from severe acute malnutrition and its predictors: a multicentre retrospective follow-up study in Amhara region, north-west Ethiopia

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the time to recovery from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and its predictors in selected public health institutions in Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia.

DESIGN

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted using data extracted from 1690 patient cards from September 2012 to November 2016.

SETTING

Selected government health institutions in the Amhara region, Ethiopia.

PARTICIPANTS

Children treated in therapeutic feeding units for SAM were included.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Time to recovery from SAM.

RESULTS

One thousand and fifty children have recovered from SAM, 62.13% (95% CI 59.8% to 64.5%). The median time to recovery was 16 days (IQR=11-28). Female gender (adjusted HR (AHR)=0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.98), oedematous malnutrition (AHR=0.74 95% CI 0.59 to 0.93), pneumonia (AHR=0.66, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.83), tuberculosis (AHR=0.53, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.77), HIV/AIDS (AHR=0.47, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.79), anaemia (AHR=0.73, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.89) and receiving vitamin A (AHR=1.43, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.82) were notably associated with time to recovery.

CONCLUSIONS

The time to recovery in this study was acceptable but the proportion of recovery was far below the minimum standard. Special emphasis should be given to the prevention and treatment of comorbidities besides the therapeutic feeding. Supplementing vitamin A would also help to improve the recovery rate.

Global burden of antenatal depression and its association with adverse birth outcomes: an umbrella review

Background

Women of childbearing age are at high risk of developing depression and antenatal depression is one of the most common mood disorders. Antenatal depression is also associated with a number of poor maternal and infant outcomes, however, there remains a lack of focus on mental issues in antenatal care, particularly in lower income countries. This systematic review of reviews provides useful evidence regarding the burden of antenatal depression which may provide guidance for health policy development and planning.

Methods

We searched CINAHL(EBSCO), MEDLINE (via Ovid), PsycINFO, Emcare, PubMed, Psychiatry Online, and Scopus databases for systematic reviews that based on observational studies that were published in between January 1st, 2007 and August 31st, 2018. We used the Assessment of Multiple Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR) checklist scores to assess the quality of the included reviews. We applied vote counting and narrative review to summarize the prevalence of antenatal depression and its associated factors, while statistical pooling was conducted for estimating the association of antenatal depression with low birth weight and preterm birth. This systematic review of reviews was registered on PROSPERO with protocol number CRD42018116267.

Results

We have included ten reviews (306 studies with 877,246 participants) on antenatal depression prevalence and six reviews (39 studies with 75,451 participants) conducted to identify the effect of antenatal depression on preterm and low birth weight. Globally, we found that antenatal depression prevalence ranged from 15 to 65%. We identified the following prominent risk factors based on their degree of influence: Current or previous exposure to different forms of abuse and violence (six reviews and 73 studies); lack of social and/or partner support (four reviews and 47 studies); personal or family history of any common mental disorder (three reviews and 34 studies). The risk of low birth weight and preterm birth was 1.49 (95%CI: 1.32, 1.68; I² = 0.0%) and 1.40 (95%CI: 1.16, 1.69; I² = 35.2%) times higher among infants born from depressed mothers.

Conclusions

Globally, antenatal depression prevalence was high and could be considered a common mental disorder during pregnancy. Though the association between antenatal depression and adverse birth outcomes appeared to be modest, its absolute impact would be significant in lower-income countries with a high prevalence of antenatal depression and poor access to quality mental health services.

Antenatal depression and its association with adverse birth outcomes in low and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Depression in pregnancy (antenatal depression) in many low and middle-income countries is not well documented and has not been given priority for intervention due to competing urgencies and the belief that it does not immediately cause fatalities, which mainly emanated from lack of comprehensive research on the area. To fill this research gap, this systematic review was conducted to investigate the burden of antenatal depression and its consequences on birth outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

We systematically searched the databases: CINHAL, MEDLINE, EMCare, PubMed, PSyc Info, Psychiatry online, and Scopus for studies conducted in low and middle-income countries about antenatal depression and its association with adverse birth outcomes. We have included observational studies (case control, cross-sectional and cohort studies), written in English-language, scored in the range of “good quality” on the Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS), and were published between January 1, 2007 and December 31, 2017. Studies were excluded if a standardized approach was not used to measure main outcomes, they were conducted on restricted (high risk) populations, or had fair to poor quality score on NOS. We used Higgins and Egger’s to test for heterogeneity and publication bias. Primary estimates were pooled using a random effect meta-analysis. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO with protocol number CRD42017082624.

Result

We included 64 studies (with 44, 035 women) on antenatal depression and nine studies (with 5,540 women) on adverse birth outcomes. Antenatal depression was higher in the lower-income countries (Pooled Prevalence (PP) = 34.0%; 95%CI: 33.1%-34.9%) compared to the middle-income countries (PP = 22.7%, 95%CI: 20.1%-25.2%) and increased over the three trimesters. Pregnant women with a history of economic difficulties, poor marital relationships, common mental disorders, poor social support, bad obstetric history, and exposure to violence were more likely to report antenatal depression. The risk of having preterm birth (2.41; 1.47–3.56) and low birth weight (1.66; 1.06–2.61) was higher in depressed mothers compared to mothers without depression.

Conclusions

Antenatal depression was higher in low-income countries than in middle-income countries and was found to be a risk factor for low birth weight and preterm births. The economic, maternal, and psychosocial risk factors were responsible for the occurrence of antenatal depression. While there could be competing priority agenda to juggle for health policymakers in low-income countries, interventions for antenatal depression should be reprioritized as vitally important in order to prevent the poor maternal and perinatal outcomes identified in this review.

Status of perceived social support and its associated factors among inmate prisoners in Northwest Amhara, Ethiopia

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the level of social support and associated factors in selected prison institutions in Amhara region, Ethiopia.

RESULT

Prisoners that had good social support from their family, friends, and significant others were 64.7%, (95% CI 60.9%, 68.4%). The odds of social support was higher among those educated and rural prisoners. However, it was found to be lower among non-Orthodox Christian prisoners and prisoners who were discriminated. Social support is buffering tool for social difficulties and hardships faced by prisoners while they are in prison and very helpful to reduce mental health morbidities and their consequences, hence should be strengthened.

Burden and determinants of malnutrition among pregnant women in Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Malnutrition in pregnancy remains unacceptably high across all regions of Africa though promising progresses have been made globally. Primary studies might not be sufficient to portrait a comprehensive picture of malnutrition during pregnancy and its main risk factors. Therefore, we intended to review the burden of malnutrition, for this specific review implies to protein energy malnutrition, during pregnancy in Africa to present its magnitude and determinant factors.

METHODS

We did a systematic review of observational studies published from January 1/2008 to January 31/2018. The CINAHL(EBSCO), MEDLINE (via Ovid), Emcare, PubMed databases and Google scholar were searched. Articles quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and studies with fair to good quality were included. We pooled malnutrition prevalence and an odds ratio estimates for risk factors after checking for heterogeneity and publication bias. This review has been registered in Prospero with a protocol number CRD42018114949.

RESULT

23 studies involving 20,672 pregnant women were included. Using a random effect model, the overall pooled prevalence of malnutrition among pregnant women in Africa was 23.5% (95%CI: 17.72-29.32; I2 = 98.5%). Based on the current review pooled odds ratio finding; rural residency (POR = 2.6%; 95%CI: 1.48-4.65; I2 = 0%), low educational status of partners (POR = 1.7%; 95%CI: 1.19-2.53; I2 = 54.8%), multiple pregnancy (POR = 2.15%; 95%CI: 1.27-3.64; I2 = 0%) and poor nutritional indicators (POR = 2.03%; 95%CI: 1.72-2.4, I2 = 0%) were positively determine maternal malnutrition. On contrary, better household economic status (POR = 0.47%; 95%CI: 0.36-0.62; I2 = 24.2%) negatively determine maternal malnutrition.

CONCLUSION

A significant number of the pregnant population in Africa are suffering of malnutrition, above 10% of the standard acceptable malnutrition rate. Thus, efforts should be renewed to ensure a proper and widespread implementation of programs that would address issues identified in the current review to reduce the burden of malnutrition.

Mortality rate and predictors of time to death in children with severe acute malnutrition treated in Felege-Hiwot Referral Hospital Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia

Objectives

This study aimed to determine mortality rate, time to death and factors affecting the time to death among children with severe acute malnutrition admitted to therapeutic feeding unit of Felege Hiwot Referral Hospital, Bahirdar.

Result

A total of 401 children with severe acute malnutrition who were admitted to therapeutic feeding units from September 2012 to January 2016 were included in the study. The incidence of death rate was 8.47% (95% CI 6.11%, 11.65%). The median time to death was 3 days (Inter Quartile Range of 4 days). Children’s of age > 24 months (AHR = 0.27; 95% CI 0.1, 0.73), fully vaccinated status (AHR = 0.16; 95% CI 0.07, 0.36), HIV infection (AHR = 3.82; 95% CI 1.3, 11.15) and congestive heart failure (AHR = 6.98; 95% CI 2.42, 20.09) were significant predictors of mortality among children admitted for severe acute malnutrition.

Being unvaccinated and having a contact history increased the risk of measles infection during an outbreak: a finding from measles outbreak investigation in rural district of Ethiopia

Background

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases caused by an acute viral illness called Morbillivirus that usually occurs as an outbreak in low-income countries. As of May 2016 measles suspected outbreak was reported from Sekota Zuria district. We investigated the outbreak to identify its possible sources and risk factors of acquiring the infection in the district.

Method

We conducted a 1:2 unmatched case-control study in May 2016 in Sekota Zuria district, Northern Ethiopia. Cases involved in the study were lab confirmed and epidemiologically linked. Controls were those who had no clinical signs of measles and residing in the same communities where the cases were identified. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data. Data were cleaned and entered to Epi-info7 and analyzed using SPSS-20. A logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify risk factors associated with measles infection at a p-value ≤0.05.

Results

29 cases were identified during the outbreak investigation. The probable source of an outbreak was an index case who had a travel history to a district with a measles epidemic. Five samples were collected for confirmation of the diagnosis. No measles-related deaths were reported. The median age of cases and controls was 15 years (SD ± 7.8) and 11 years (SD ± 9.8), respectively. More than 55% of the cases were in age ≥ 15 years. In the multivariable analysis, being previously vaccinated for measles reduced the risk of measles infection by 83% (AOR, 95%CI = 0.17, 0.05–0.53) and having a contact history increased the risk of measles infection by 3.44 times (AOR, 95%CI = 3.44, 1.26–9.38).

Conclusion

We confirmed a measles outbreak in Sekota Zuria district. The majority of the cases were in age ≥ 15 years. Being un-vaccinated and having a contact history with confirmed or suspected cases were increased the risk of measles infection. To catch up with missed children at the time of the first dose of measles vaccine and reduce their susceptibility, supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) or immunization campaigns shall be strengthened.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-3973-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Undernutrition and its associated factors among pregnant mothers in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Regardless of significant gains and signs of progress in the last decades, maternal undernutrition remains a major public health concern in Ethiopia. Supporting the progress of interventions being taken in the country with evidence might be important to keep the sustainability of the government effort. We aimed at determining the extent of undernutrition and its associated factors among pregnant mothers in Gondar town, Northwest Ethiopia.

METHOD

A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted by including 940 selected pregnant mothers through a cluster sampling. A face-to-face interview was administered to pregnant mothers at a household level. We collected data using an Online Data collection kit (ODK) and the collected data was directly downloaded from the Google Cloud platform and finally imported to Stata 14 for further analysis. A multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to identify factors associated with undernutrition. A crude and adjusted odds ratio with their 95% confidence interval was calculated to declare the association and its significance. Model fitness was assured through the Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of fit test and model classification accuracy.

RESULT

14.4% (95%CI: 12.3-16.7) of pregnant mothers were undernourished. After adjusting for the main covariates; as the age of the pregnant mothers increases the odds of being undernourished decreases by 10% (AOR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.87-0.95) and having a poor marital condition (AOR: 2.18; 95%CI: 1.03-4.59) increased the odds of undernutrition. The risk of undernutrition was also decreased by 43% among those pregnant mothers who consumed coffee sometimes (AOR: 0.57; 95%CI: 0.36-0.89) as compared to daily consumers.

CONCLUSION

A significant proportion of pregnant mother were undernourished. Integration of nutritional interventions with maternity health services would be highly important to improve the nutritional status of the mothers. It is also important to counsel pregnant mothers about a consequence of frequent coffee drinking during their pregnancy.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Assessments of age-specific mortality and life expectancy have been done by the UN Population Division, Department of Economics and Social Affairs (UNPOP), the United States Census Bureau, WHO, and as part of previous iterations of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). Previous iterations of the GBD used population estimates from UNPOP, which were not derived in a way that was internally consistent with the estimates of the numbers of deaths in the GBD. The present iteration of the GBD, GBD 2017, improves on previous assessments and provides timely estimates of the mortality experience of populations globally.

METHODS

The GBD uses all available data to produce estimates of mortality rates between 1950 and 2017 for 23 age groups, both sexes, and 918 locations, including 195 countries and territories and subnational locations for 16 countries. Data used include vital registration systems, sample registration systems, household surveys (complete birth histories, summary birth histories, sibling histories), censuses (summary birth histories, household deaths), and Demographic Surveillance Sites. In total, this analysis used 8259 data sources. Estimates of the probability of death between birth and the age of 5 years and between ages 15 and 60 years are generated and then input into a model life table system to produce complete life tables for all locations and years. Fatal discontinuities and mortality due to HIV/AIDS are analysed separately and then incorporated into the estimation. We analyse the relationship between age-specific mortality and development status using the Socio-demographic Index, a composite measure based on fertility under the age of 25 years, education, and income. There are four main methodological improvements in GBD 2017 compared with GBD 2016: 622 additional data sources have been incorporated; new estimates of population, generated by the GBD study, are used; statistical methods used in different components of the analysis have been further standardised and improved; and the analysis has been extended backwards in time by two decades to start in 1950.

FINDINGS

Globally, 18·7% (95% uncertainty interval 18·4-19·0) of deaths were registered in 1950 and that proportion has been steadily increasing since, with 58·8% (58·2-59·3) of all deaths being registered in 2015. At the global level, between 1950 and 2017, life expectancy increased from 48·1 years (46·5-49·6) to 70·5 years (70·1-70·8) for men and from 52·9 years (51·7-54·0) to 75·6 years (75·3-75·9) for women. Despite this overall progress, there remains substantial variation in life expectancy at birth in 2017, which ranges from 49·1 years (46·5-51·7) for men in the Central African Republic to 87·6 years (86·9-88·1) among women in Singapore. The greatest progress across age groups was for children younger than 5 years; under-5 mortality dropped from 216·0 deaths (196·3-238·1) per 1000 livebirths in 1950 to 38·9 deaths (35·6-42·83) per 1000 livebirths in 2017, with huge reductions across countries. Nevertheless, there were still 5·4 million (5·2-5·6) deaths among children younger than 5 years in the world in 2017. Progress has been less pronounced and more variable for adults, especially for adult males, who had stagnant or increasing mortality rates in several countries. The gap between male and female life expectancy between 1950 and 2017, while relatively stable at the global level, shows distinctive patterns across super-regions and has consistently been the largest in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and smallest in south Asia. Performance was also variable across countries and time in observed mortality rates compared with those expected on the basis of development.

INTERPRETATION

This analysis of age-sex-specific mortality shows that there are remarkably complex patterns in population mortality across countries. The findings of this study highlight global successes, such as the large decline in under-5 mortality, which reflects significant local, national, and global commitment and investment over several decades. However, they also bring attention to mortality patterns that are a cause for concern, particularly among adult men and, to a lesser extent, women, whose mortality rates have stagnated in many countries over the time period of this study, and in some cases are increasing.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Global development goals increasingly rely on country-specific estimates for benchmarking a nation's progress. To meet this need, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 estimated global, regional, national, and, for selected locations, subnational cause-specific mortality beginning in the year 1980. Here we report an update to that study, making use of newly available data and improved methods. GBD 2017 provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 282 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2017.

METHODS

The causes of death database is composed of vital registration (VR), verbal autopsy (VA), registry, survey, police, and surveillance data. GBD 2017 added ten VA studies, 127 country-years of VR data, 502 cancer-registry country-years, and an additional surveillance country-year. Expansions of the GBD cause of death hierarchy resulted in 18 additional causes estimated for GBD 2017. Newly available data led to subnational estimates for five additional countries-Ethiopia, Iran, New Zealand, Norway, and Russia. Deaths assigned International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes for non-specific, implausible, or intermediate causes of death were reassigned to underlying causes by redistribution algorithms that were incorporated into uncertainty estimation. We used statistical modelling tools developed for GBD, including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm), to generate cause fractions and cause-specific death rates for each location, year, age, and sex. Instead of using UN estimates as in previous versions, GBD 2017 independently estimated population size and fertility rate for all locations. Years of life lost (YLLs) were then calculated as the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. All rates reported here are age-standardised.

FINDINGS

At the broadest grouping of causes of death (Level 1), non-communicable diseases (NCDs) comprised the greatest fraction of deaths, contributing to 73·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 72·5-74·1) of total deaths in 2017, while communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) causes accounted for 18·6% (17·9-19·6), and injuries 8·0% (7·7-8·2). Total numbers of deaths from NCD causes increased from 2007 to 2017 by 22·7% (21·5-23·9), representing an additional 7·61 million (7·20-8·01) deaths estimated in 2017 versus 2007. The death rate from NCDs decreased globally by 7·9% (7·0-8·8). The number of deaths for CMNN causes decreased by 22·2% (20·0-24·0) and the death rate by 31·8% (30·1-33·3). Total deaths from injuries increased by 2·3% (0·5-4·0) between 2007 and 2017, and the death rate from injuries decreased by 13·7% (12·2-15·1) to 57·9 deaths (55·9-59·2) per 100 000 in 2017. Deaths from substance use disorders also increased, rising from 284 000 deaths (268 000-289 000) globally in 2007 to 352 000 (334 000-363 000) in 2017. Between 2007 and 2017, total deaths from conflict and terrorism increased by 118·0% (88·8-148·6). A greater reduction in total deaths and death rates was observed for some CMNN causes among children younger than 5 years than for older adults, such as a 36·4% (32·2-40·6) reduction in deaths from lower respiratory infections for children younger than 5 years compared with a 33·6% (31·2-36·1) increase in adults older than 70 years. Globally, the number of deaths was greater for men than for women at most ages in 2017, except at ages older than 85 years. Trends in global YLLs reflect an epidemiological transition, with decreases in total YLLs from enteric infections, respiratory infections and tuberculosis, and maternal and neonatal disorders between 1990 and 2017; these were generally greater in magnitude at the lowest levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). At the same time, there were large increases in YLLs from neoplasms and cardiovascular diseases. YLL rates decreased across the five leading Level 2 causes in all SDI quintiles. The leading causes of YLLs in 1990-neonatal disorders, lower respiratory infections, and diarrhoeal diseases-were ranked second, fourth, and fifth, in 2017. Meanwhile, estimated YLLs increased for ischaemic heart disease (ranked first in 2017) and stroke (ranked third), even though YLL rates decreased. Population growth contributed to increased total deaths across the 20 leading Level 2 causes of mortality between 2007 and 2017. Decreases in the cause-specific mortality rate reduced the effect of population growth for all but three causes: substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and skin and subcutaneous diseases.

INTERPRETATION

Improvements in global health have been unevenly distributed among populations. Deaths due to injuries, substance use disorders, armed conflict and terrorism, neoplasms, and cardiovascular disease are expanding threats to global health. For causes of death such as lower respiratory and enteric infections, more rapid progress occurred for children than for the oldest adults, and there is continuing disparity in mortality rates by sex across age groups. Reductions in the death rate of some common diseases are themselves slowing or have ceased, primarily for NCDs, and the death rate for selected causes has increased in the past decade.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment.

METHODS

We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator.

FINDINGS

The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030.

INTERPRETATION

The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains-curative interventions in the case of NCDs-towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions-or inaction-today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk-outcome associations.

METHODS

We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.

FINDINGS

In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3-35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14-1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6-62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3-50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39-11·5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83-7·37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23-8·23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99-6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36-1·51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3-6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low.

INTERPRETATION

By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data.

METHODS

We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting.

FINDINGS

Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases [95% UI 2782-3252] per 100 000 in males vs s1400 [1279-1524] per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 [3082-3583] vs 2336 [2154-2535]), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 [2943-3630] vs 5643 [5057-6302]).

INTERPRETATION

Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 1990, whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Estimates of the global, regional, and national morbidity, mortality, and aetiologies of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality around the world. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study 2016, provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of lower respiratory infections in 195 countries. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 26 years and shows how the burden of lower respiratory infection has changed in people of all ages.

METHODS

We used three separate modelling strategies for lower respiratory infections in GBD 2016: a Bayesian hierarchical ensemble modelling platform (Cause of Death Ensemble model), which uses vital registration, verbal autopsy data, and surveillance system data to predict mortality due to lower respiratory infections; a compartmental meta-regression tool (DisMod-MR), which uses scientific literature, population representative surveys, and health-care data to predict incidence, prevalence, and mortality; and modelling of counterfactual estimates of the population attributable fraction of lower respiratory infection episodes due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus. We calculated each modelled estimate for each age, sex, year, and location. We modelled the exposure level in a population for a given risk factor using DisMod-MR and a spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression, and assessed the effectiveness of targeted interventions for each risk factor in children younger than 5 years. We also did a decomposition analysis of the change in LRI deaths from 2000-16 using the risk factors associated with LRI in GBD 2016.

FINDINGS

In 2016, lower respiratory infections caused 652 572 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 586 475-720 612) in children younger than 5 years (under-5s), 1 080 958 deaths (943 749-1 170 638) in adults older than 70 years, and 2 377 697 deaths (2 145 584-2 512 809) in people of all ages, worldwide. Streptococcus pneumoniae was the leading cause of lower respiratory infection morbidity and mortality globally, contributing to more deaths than all other aetiologies combined in 2016 (1 189 937 deaths, 95% UI 690 445-1 770 660). Childhood wasting remains the leading risk factor for lower respiratory infection mortality among children younger than 5 years, responsible for 61·4% of lower respiratory infection deaths in 2016 (95% UI 45·7-69·6). Interventions to improve wasting, household air pollution, ambient particulate matter pollution, and expanded antibiotic use could avert one under-5 death due to lower respiratory infection for every 4000 children treated in the countries with the highest lower respiratory infection burden.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings show substantial progress in the reduction of lower respiratory infection burden, but this progress has not been equal across locations, has been driven by decreases in several primary risk factors, and might require more effort among elderly adults. By highlighting regions and populations with the highest burden, and the risk factors that could have the greatest effect, funders, policy makers, and programme implementers can more effectively reduce lower respiratory infections among the world's most susceptible populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial distribution of antenatal care utilization and associated factors in Ethiopia: evidence from Ethiopian demographic health surveys

BACKGROUND

Antenatal care (ANC) is one of the components of care to be provided to pregnant women. In Ethiopia, characterizing the spatial distribution of antenatal care utilization is essential to prioritize risk areas where ANC is needed and facilitate interventions. Therefore, this spatial analysis was performed to assess the spatial distribution of ANC utilization between 2000 and 2011 and to identify factors associated with ANC utilization in Ethiopia.

METHODS

A total of 23,179 women who had a live birth in the five years preceding the surveys were included in the study. The spatial data were created in ArcGIS10.1 for each study clusters. The Bernoulli model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan™ software to analyze the purely spatial clusters of ANC utilization. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify predictors affecting ANC utilization.

RESULTS

ANC utilization had spatial variations across the country. Spatial scan statistics identified 49 high performing clusters (LLR = 111.92, P < 0.001) in 2000, 51 (LLR = 114.49, P < 0.001) in 2005 and, 86 (LLR = 121.53, P < 0.001) in 2011. ANC utilization was higher among mothers; with richest wealth quintiles, lowest number of birth order, who are living in urban areas, younger and educated.

CONCLUSION

These results provide further insight into differences in ANC utilization in the country and highlight high and modest performing clusters. This could enable efficient and timely spatial targeting to improve ANC service up take in Ethiopia.

Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita.

FINDINGS

In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle-SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view-and subsequent provision-of quality health care for all populations.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Prevalence and determinants of active trachoma among preschool-aged children in Dembia District, Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Trachoma is an infectious eye disease caused by Chlamydia trachomatis, which is the leading infectious cause of blindness worldwide. In areas where trachoma is endemic, active trachoma is common among preschool-aged children, with varying magnitude. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of active trachoma and associated risk factors among preschool-aged children in Dembia District, northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

A community-based cross-sectional survey was conducted among preschool-aged children of northwest Ethiopia. Multistage systematic random sampling was used to select 695 subjects. Trained clinical optometrists subjected each child to an ocular examination and assessed the presence of active trachoma. Face to face interview using pretested and structured questionnaire were conducted to collect data on possible risk factors. Trachoma cases were graded following a World Health Organization simplified grading scheme. All statistical analysis was carried out using the SPSS software version 20. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were used to identify factors associated with active trachoma.

Results

Of the 681 preschool-aged children studied, 18% (95% CI: 15.4% – 21.1%) had a prevalence of active trachoma. Children who had clean faces (absence of nasal and ocular discharges) had a lower chance of having active trachoma [aOR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.37 – 0.82]. The odds of having active trachoma decreased with an increase in the distance to a water point [aOR = 0.51, 95% CI: 0.33 – 0.78]. Similarly, no or poor utilization of liquid waste disposal in the child’s household was associated with an increased chance of having active trachoma [aOR = 3.83, 95% CI: 1.26 – 11.61].

Conclusion

The prevalence of active trachoma in these preschool-aged children was found to be high and needs special interventions that focus on educating families about proper face washing, liquid waste disposal, and improving safe water supply near the households.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-017-0345-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.

METHODS

We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).

FINDINGS

Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).

INTERPRETATION

The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.

Determinants of abortion among clients coming for abortion service at felegehiwot referral hospital, northwest Ethiopia: a case control study

Background

According to the World Health Organization (WHO) estimate, one-third of pregnancies end in miscarriage, stillbirth, or induced abortion in the world. There are various reasons for a woman to seek induced abortion. However, limited information is available so far in the country and particularly in the study area. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to identify the determinants of induced abortion among clients coming for abortion care services at Bahirdar Felegehiwote referral hospital, Northwest Ethiopia.

Methods

Institutional based unmatched case-control study was conducted from September to December 2014. Interview administered questioner was used to collect primary data. Enumeration and systematic random sampling (K = 3) method was used to select 175 cases and 350 controls. A binary logistic regression model was fitted to identify determinant factors. Odds ratio with 95% CI was computed to assess the strength and significance of the association.

Result

All sampled cases and controls were actually interviewed. The likelihood of abortion was higher among non-married women [AOR: 18.23, 95% CI: 8.04, 41.32], students [AOR: 11.46, 95% CI: 6.29, 20.87], and women having a monthly income of less than 500 ETB [AOR: 11.46, 95% CI: 6.29, 20.87]. However, the likelihood of abortion was lower among women age greater than 24 years [AOR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.11, 0.79] and who had the previous history of induced abortion [AOR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.15, 0.65].

Conclusion

The study identified being non-married, student, women age less than 24 years, having the previous history of induced abortion, and low monthly income as an independent determinant of induced abortion. Interventions focused on the identified determinant factors are recommended.

High Adherence to Iron/Folic Acid Supplementation during Pregnancy Time among Antenatal and Postnatal Care Attendant Mothers in Governmental Health Centers in Akaki Kality Sub City, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Hierarchical Negative Binomial Poisson Regression

Background

Iron deficiency during pregnancy is a risk factor for anemia, preterm delivery, and low birth weight. Iron/Folic Acid supplementation with optimal adherence can effectively prevent anemia in pregnancy. However, studies that address this area of adherence are very limited. Therefore, the current study was conducted to assess the adherence and to identify factors associated with a number of Iron/Folic Acid uptake during pregnancy time among mothers attending antenatal and postnatal care follow up in Akaki kality sub city.

Methods

Institutional based cross-sectional study was conducted on a sample of 557 pregnant women attending antenatal and postnatal care service. Systematic random sampling was used to select study subjects. The mothers were interviewed and the collected data was cleaned and entered into Epi Info 3.5.1 and analyzed by R version 3.2.0. Hierarchical Negative Binomial Poisson Regression Model was fitted to identify the factors associated with a number of Iron/Folic Acid uptake. Adjusted Incidence rate ratio (IRR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) was computed to assess the strength and significance of the association.

Result

More than 90% of the mothers were supplemented with at least one Iron/Folic Acid supplement from pill per week during their pregnancy time. Sixty percent of the mothers adhered (took four or more tablets per week) (95%CI, 56%—64.1%). Higher IRR of Iron/Folic Acid supplementation was observed among women: who received health education; which were privately employed; who achieved secondary education; and who believed that Iron/Folic Acid supplements increase blood, whereas mothers who reported a side effect, who were from families with relatively better monthly income, and who took the supplement when sick were more likely to adhere.

Conclusion

Adherence to Iron/Folic Acid supplement during their pregnancy time among mothers attending antenatal and postnatal care was found to be high. Activities that would address the above mentioned factors were highly recommended to ensure the sustainability of mothers’ adherence to the supplement.

Anxiety and associated factors among prisoners in North West of Amhara Regional State, Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Mental illnesses are more common among the prison population than the general public. However, little attention is given to mental health service in low and middle income countries in general. The problem is more so for prisoners where the overall health care is poor. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of anxiety and the associated factors among prisoners of North West Amhara, Ethiopia.

METHODS

Institutional based cross-sectional study was employed from February to March 2015 by taking a sample of 700 prisoners. Simple random sampling method was employed to select three prisons out of 10 prisons found in the North West Amhara region. Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7) scale was used to assess prisoners' anxiety status. The receiver- operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the cutoff point with high sensitivity and specificity. Structured and pretested interviewer administered questionnaire was used for data collection. Data were checked, coded and entered into Epi Info version 7 and analyzed using R version 3.2.0. Bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were carried out to identify factors associated with anxiety. Odds ratio with its 95 % confidence interval was used as a measure of association. Akaike's Information's Criterion (AIC) was used to check model fitness.

RESULTS

A total of 649 prisoners were included in the analysis making the response rate 92.5 %. The prevalence of Anxiety was found to be 36.1 % (95 % CI: 32.7, 39.9). The odds of Anxiety was 2.49(95 % CI: 1.38, 4.55) times higher among prisoners who used to be unhappy in their life before imprisonment. Moreover, smokers were 2.6 (AOR = 2.6, 95 % CI: 1.08, 6.6) times more likely to have anxiety compared with non smokers. However, the odds of the odds of anxiety was 89% lower among Debre-Tabor prisoners (AOR = 0.11, 95 % CI: 0.06, 0.20) and 57 % lower among Gondar prisoners (AOR = 0.43, 95 % CI: 0.28, 0.67).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of anxiety is found to be very high among prisoners in North West Ethiopia. Anxiety was associated with current smoking and having had a dissatisfying life. Screening prisoners for common mental disorders and integrated health care is necessary.

Prevalence of hypertension among federal ministry civil servants in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: a call for a workplace-screening program

Background

The prevalence of hypertension (HTN) is increasing rapidly in Ethiopia, but data are limited on hypertension prevalence in specific workplaces. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the prevalence and associated factors of hypertension among federal ministry civil servants.

Methods

Institutional based cross sectional study was conducted from February to April 2014. Simple random sampling technique was used to select 655study participants. A standardized questionnaire adapted from The World Health Organization’s (WHO) STEP tool was used to collect the data. In this study, HTN was defined as mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of 140/90 mmHg and above, and patients on regular drug therapy for H. Data were entered into EPI-Info 3.5.2 and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Binary logistic regression model was used to identify associated factors. Odds ratio with 95 % CI was computed to assess the strength of the association and significant level.

Result

The prevalence of hypertension was found to be 27.3 % (95 % CI 23.3 – 31 %). Civil servants of age 48 years and above [AOR = 5.88, 95 % CI: 2.36-14.67], age 38-47 years [AOR = 2.80, 95 % CI: 1.18-6.60] and age 28-37 years [AOR = 2.35, 95 % CI: 1.00-5.56]) were more likely to be hypertensive. Similarly, ever cigarette smoking [AOR =2.34(1.31-4.17), family history of hypertension [AOR = 3.26, 95 % CI 1.96-5.40], self-reported Diabetes Mellitus (DM) [AOR = 13.56, 95 % CI: 6.91-26.6], and body mass index (BMI > 25 kg/m²) [AOR = 7.36, 95 % CI: 2.36-14.67] were found to be significantly associated with hypertension.

Conclusion

The prevalence of hypertension among federal ministry civil servants was found to be high; which is an indication for institution based hypertension-screening programs especially focusing on those aged 28 years and above, obese, DM patients and cigarette smokers.

Level of mother's knowledge about neonatal danger signs and associated factors in North West of Ethiopia: a community based study

BACKGROUND

Neonatal danger has become a substantial problem in many developing countries like Ethiopia. More specifically, neonatal rates in Ethiopia are among the highest in the world. In this regard, health-seeking behavior of mothers for neonatal care highly relies on their knowledge about neonatal danger sign, and it has been hardly investigated. Therefore, this study was intended to determine the level of mother's knowledge about neonatal danger signs and to identify factors associated with good mother's knowledge.

METHODS

Community-based cross-sectional study was conducted from February to May 2014. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select 603 mothers. A structured, pre-tested, and interview-administered questionnaire comprehending 13 neonatal danger signs was employed to collect the data. Data were entered into EPI-Info 3.5.2 and analyzed by SPSS version 16. Binary logistic regression model was used to identify associated factors. Odds ratio with 95% CI was computed to assess the strength and significant level of the association.

RESULTS

All mothers expected to participate in the study were interviewed. The results of the study showed that mothers who had knowledge of three or more neonatal danger signs (good knowledge) were found to be 18.2% (95% CI 15.1, 21.3%). The odds of having good knowledge was positively associated with mother's (AOR = 3.41, 95% CI 1.37, 8.52) and father's (AOR = 3.91, 95% CI 1.23, 12.36) higher educational achievement. Similarly, the odds of having good knowledge about neonatal danger signs was higher among Antenatal care (AOR = 2.28, 95% CI 1.05, 4.95) and Postnatal care attendant mothers (AOR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.22, 3.54). Furthermore, access to television was also associated with mothers' good knowledge about neonatal danger signs (AOR = 3.49, 95% CI 1.30, 9.39).

CONCLUSION

Maternal knowledge about neonatal danger signs was low. Therefore, intervention modalities that focus on increasing level of parental education, access to antenatal and postnatal care and PNC service, and advocating the use of television was pinpointed.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of the effect of short birth interval on infant mortality in Ethiopia

Introduction

Even though Ethiopia has been celebrating the achievements of MDG 4, still one in every 17 Ethiopian children dies before their first birthday. This is the biggest of the African regional average. Short birth interval is inconsistently reported as a risk factor by limited and independent studies in Ethiopia. Therefore, the purpose of this meta-analysis was to determine the pooled effect size of the preceding birth interval length on infant mortality.

Methods

Studies were accessed through the electronic web-based search mechanism from PUBMED, Advanced Google Scholar, WHO databases and journals: PLOS ONE, and BMC, using independent and combinations of key terms. Comprehensive meta-analysis version 2 was used to analyze the data. An I² test was used to assess heterogeneity. Funnel plot and statistical significance by Egger’s test of the intercept was used to check publication bias. The final estimate was determined in the form of odds ratio by applying Duval and Tweedie’s trim and fill analysis in the Random-effects model.

Results

872 studies were identified on the reviewed topic. During screening, forty-five studies were found to be relevant for data abstraction. However, only five studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. In all of the studies included in the analysis, the preceding birth interval had a significant association with under-one mortality. The final pooled estimate in the form of the odds ratio for infant mortality with a preceding birth interval of less than 24 months was found to be 2.03 (95% CI: 1.52, 2.70, random effect (five studies, n=43,909), I²=70%, P<0.05).

Conclusion

In Ethiopia, promoting the length of birth interval to at least two years lowered under-one mortality by 50% (95% CI: 35%, 63%).