The futility of long-term predictions in bipolar disorder: mood fluctuations are the result of deterministic chaotic processes

Not missing at random: Missing data are associated with clinical status and trajectories in an electronic monitoring longitudinal study of bipolar disorder

There is limited information on the association between participants' clinical status or trajectories and missing data in electronic monitoring studies of bipolar disorder (BD). We collected self-ratings scales and sensor data in 145 adults with BD. Using a new metric, Missing Data Ratio (MDR), we assessed missing self-rating data and sensor data monitoring activity and sleep. Missing data were lowest for participants in the midst of a depressive episode, intermediate for participants with subsyndromal symptoms, and highest for participants who were euthymic. Over a mean ± SD follow-up of 246 ± 181 days, missing data remained unchanged for participants whose clinical status did not change throughout the study (i.e., those who entered the study in a depressive episode and did not improve, or those who entered the study euthymic and remained euthymic). Conversely, when participants' clinical status changed during the study (e.g., those who entered the study euthymic and experienced the occurrence of a depressive episode), missing data for self-rating scales increased, but not for sensor data. Overall missing data were associated with participants' clinical status and its changes, suggesting that these are not missing at random.

Can we predict a "tsunami"? Symptomatic and syndromal density, mood instability and treatment intensity in people with bipolar disorders under a strict and long lockdown

BACKGROUND

Converging evidence supports the involvement of circadian rhythm disturbances in the course and morbidity of bipolar disorders (BD). During 2020, lockdown measures were introduced worldwide to contain the health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, chronobiological rhythms were critically disrupted and illness outcomes were expected to worsen. The current study aimed to explore changes in morbidity among BD patients living under lockdown.

METHODS

Ninety BD outpatients under naturalistic treatment conditions were followed from March to September 2020 using a mood chart technique. Different treatment and illness variables, including mood instability, were assessed and compared with the outcomes obtained during the same 28-week period in 2019.

RESULTS

For most clinical variables, no significant differences were observed between time periods. A slight decrease was found in symptom intensity (from 15.19 ± 20.62 to 10.34 ± 15.79, FDR-adjusted p = 0.04) and in the number of depressive episodes (from 0.39 ± 0.74 to 0.22 ± 0.63, FDR-adjusted p = 0.03), whereas the intensity of pharmacological treatment remained unchanged. Previous illness course predicted mood outcomes during the confinement.

LIMITATIONS

Follow-up periods were relatively short. Further, actigraphy or other methods capable of ensuring significant changes in physical activity were not used.

CONCLUSIONS

In line with other studies, our findings show no worsening in the clinical morbidity of BD patients during lockdown. This conspicuous contrast between our initial predictions and the observed findings highlights the fact that we are still far from being able to provide accurate predictive models for BD.

Increased regional Hurst exponent reflects response inhibition related neural complexity alterations in pediatric bipolar disorder patients during an emotional Go-Nogo task

Fractal patterns have been shown to change in resting- and task-state blood oxygen level-dependent signals in bipolar disorder patients. However, fractal characteristics of brain blood oxygen level-dependent signals when responding to external emotional stimuli in pediatric bipolar disorder remain unclear. Blood oxygen level-dependent signals of 20 PBD-I patients and 17 age- and sex-matched healthy controls were extracted while performing an emotional Go-Nogo task. Neural responses relevant to the task and Hurst exponent of the blood oxygen level-dependent signals were assessed. Correlations between clinical indices and Hurst exponent were estimated. Significantly increased activations were found in regions covering the frontal lobe, parietal lobe, temporal lobe, insula, and subcortical nuclei in PBD-I patients compared to healthy controls in contrast of emotional versus neutral distractors. PBD-I patients exhibited higher Hurst exponent in regions that involved in action control, such as superior frontal gyrus, inferior frontal gyrus, inferior temporal gyrus, and insula, with Hurst exponent of frontal orbital gyrus correlated with onset age. The present study exhibited overactivation, increased self-similarity and decreased complexity in cortical regions during emotional Go-Nogo task in patients relative to healthy controls, which provides evidence of an altered emotional modulation of cognitive control in pediatric bipolar disorder patients. Hurst exponent may be a fractal biomarker of neural activity in pediatric bipolar disorder.

Grouping of mood symptoms by time series dynamics

BACKGROUND

Understanding how symptoms of mood disorders vary over time in relation to each other is potentially valuable for diagnosis and predicting episodes of illness. In this paper, we characterize the degree of similarity of time series of different mood disorder symptoms.

METHODS

We collected 32,215 mood disorder symptom questionnaires, administered twice-daily over 18 months to (n = 19) subjects with rapidly cycling bipolar disorder and (n = 20) healthy control subjects, using visual analog scales to rate 11 sets of symptom severity ratings plus a control item. We used Dynamic Time Warping to calculate similarity ratings between all within-subject pairs of severity ratings followed by Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) to identify latent factors of symptom time series across all subjects.

RESULTS

Two latent factors were identified: one with depression and anxiety; and a second, with concentration, energy, irritability, fatigue, appetite, euphoria/elation and overall mood. Restlessness, racing thoughts, and the control item (daily hours of daylight) did not cluster with any of the others.

LIMITATIONS

Limited sample size dictated that we pool bipolar and healthy patients and use an iterative EFA procedure.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that, in a pooled sample of individuals with bipolar disorder and in healthy controls, severity ratings of overall depression and overall anxiety vary jointly as one dynamic factor, while some but not all other DSM mood symptoms vary jointly along with overall mood rating as a second dynamic factor. Further investigation may determine if these findings can simplify subjective symptom reporting in mood-monitoring studies.

Identifying patient-specific behaviors to understand illness trajectories and predict relapses in bipolar disorder using passive sensing and deep anomaly detection: protocol for a contactless cohort study

BACKGROUND

Predictive models for mental disorders or behaviors (e.g., suicide) have been successfully developed at the level of populations, yet current demographic and clinical variables are neither sensitive nor specific enough for making individual clinical predictions. Forecasting episodes of illness is particularly relevant in bipolar disorder (BD), a mood disorder with high recurrence, disability, and suicide rates. Thus, to understand the dynamic changes involved in episode generation in BD, we propose to extract and interpret individual illness trajectories and patterns suggestive of relapse using passive sensing, nonlinear techniques, and deep anomaly detection. Here we describe the study we have designed to test this hypothesis and the rationale for its design.

METHOD

This is a protocol for a contactless cohort study in 200 adult BD patients. Participants will be followed for up to 2 years during which they will be monitored continuously using passive sensing, a wearable that collects multimodal physiological (heart rate variability) and objective (sleep, activity) data. Participants will complete (i) a comprehensive baseline assessment; (ii) weekly assessments; (iii) daily assessments using electronic rating scales. Data will be analyzed using nonlinear techniques and deep anomaly detection to forecast episodes of illness.

DISCUSSION

This proposed contactless, large cohort study aims to obtain and combine high-dimensional, multimodal physiological, objective, and subjective data. Our work, by conceptualizing mood as a dynamic property of biological systems, will demonstrate the feasibility of incorporating individual variability in a model informing clinical trajectories and predicting relapse in BD.