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Zhao A, Liu Y, Xia J, Huang L, Lu Q, Tang Q, Gan W. Establishment and validation of a prognostic model based on common laboratory indicators for SARS-CoV-2 infection in Chinese population. Ann Med 2024; 56:2400312. [PMID: 39239874 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2024.2400312] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/08/2023] [Revised: 04/23/2024] [Accepted: 04/23/2024] [Indexed: 09/07/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND At the beginning of December 2022, the Chinese government made major adjustments to the epidemic prevention and control measures. The epidemic infection data and laboratory makers for infected patients based on this period may help with the management and prognostication of COVID-19 patients. METHODS The COVID-19 patients hospitalized during December 2022 were enrolled. Logistic regression analysis was used to screen significant factors associated with mortality in patients with COVID-19. Candidate variables were screened by LASSO and stepwise logistic regression methods and were used to construct logistic regression as the prognostic model. The performance of the models was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. RESULTS 888 patients were eligible, consisting of 715 survivors and 173 all-cause deaths. Factors significantly associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients were: lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), albumin (ALB), procalcitonin (PCT), age, smoking history, malignancy history, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), lactate, vaccine status and urea. 335 of the 888 eligible patients were defined as ICU cases. Seven predictors, including neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer, PCT, C-reactive protein, ALB, bicarbonate, and LDH, were finally selected to establish the prognostic model and generate a nomogram. The area under the curve of the receiver operating curve in the training and validation cohorts were respectively 0.842 and 0.853. In terms of calibration, predicted probabilities and observed proportions displayed high agreements. Decision curve analysis showed high clinical net benefit in the risk threshold of 0.10-0.85. A cutoff value of 81.220 was determined to predict the outcome of COVID-19 patients via this nomogram. CONCLUSIONS The laboratory model established in this study showed high discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. It may be used for early identification of severe patients with COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Anjiang Zhao
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Sichuan Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Chengdu, China
- Clinical Laboratory Medicine Research Center of West China Hospital, Chengdu, China
| | - Yanyang Liu
- Department of Medical Oncology, Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Lung Cancer Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
| | - Junxiang Xia
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, Sichuan Province Orthopedic Hospital, Chengdu, China
| | - Lan Huang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Affiliated Hospital of Panzhihua University, Panzhihua, China
| | - Qing Lu
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Guangnan County People's Hospital, Wenshan, China
| | - Qin Tang
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Department of Clinical Laboratory, Yuechi County Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangan, Sichuan, China
| | - Wei Gan
- Department of Laboratory Medicine, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China
- Sichuan Clinical Research Center for Laboratory Medicine, Chengdu, China
- Clinical Laboratory Medicine Research Center of West China Hospital, Chengdu, China
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Buttia C, Llanaj E, Raeisi-Dehkordi H, Kastrati L, Amiri M, Meçani R, Taneri PE, Ochoa SAG, Raguindin PF, Wehrli F, Khatami F, Espínola OP, Rojas LZ, de Mortanges AP, Macharia-Nimietz EF, Alijla F, Minder B, Leichtle AB, Lüthi N, Ehrhard S, Que YA, Fernandes LK, Hautz W, Muka T. Prognostic models in COVID-19 infection that predict severity: a systematic review. Eur J Epidemiol 2023; 38:355-372. [PMID: 36840867 PMCID: PMC9958330 DOI: 10.1007/s10654-023-00973-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/29/2022] [Accepted: 01/28/2023] [Indexed: 02/26/2023]
Abstract
Current evidence on COVID-19 prognostic models is inconsistent and clinical applicability remains controversial. We performed a systematic review to summarize and critically appraise the available studies that have developed, assessed and/or validated prognostic models of COVID-19 predicting health outcomes. We searched six bibliographic databases to identify published articles that investigated univariable and multivariable prognostic models predicting adverse outcomes in adult COVID-19 patients, including intensive care unit (ICU) admission, intubation, high-flow nasal therapy (HFNT), extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and mortality. We identified and assessed 314 eligible articles from more than 40 countries, with 152 of these studies presenting mortality, 66 progression to severe or critical illness, 35 mortality and ICU admission combined, 17 ICU admission only, while the remaining 44 studies reported prediction models for mechanical ventilation (MV) or a combination of multiple outcomes. The sample size of included studies varied from 11 to 7,704,171 participants, with a mean age ranging from 18 to 93 years. There were 353 prognostic models investigated, with area under the curve (AUC) ranging from 0.44 to 0.99. A great proportion of studies (61.5%, 193 out of 314) performed internal or external validation or replication. In 312 (99.4%) studies, prognostic models were reported to be at high risk of bias due to uncertainties and challenges surrounding methodological rigor, sampling, handling of missing data, failure to deal with overfitting and heterogeneous definitions of COVID-19 and severity outcomes. While several clinical prognostic models for COVID-19 have been described in the literature, they are limited in generalizability and/or applicability due to deficiencies in addressing fundamental statistical and methodological concerns. Future large, multi-centric and well-designed prognostic prospective studies are needed to clarify remaining uncertainties.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chepkoech Buttia
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Emergency Department, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Freiburgstrasse 16C, 3010 Bern, Switzerland
- Epistudia, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Erand Llanaj
- Department of Molecular Epidemiology, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbrücke, Nuthetal, Germany
- ELKH-DE Public Health Research Group of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Department of Public Health and Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Debrecen, Debrecen, Hungary
- Epistudia, Bern, Switzerland
- German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), München-Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Hamidreza Raeisi-Dehkordi
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands
| | - Lum Kastrati
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Diabetes, Endocrinology, Nutritional Medicine and Metabolism, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Mojgan Amiri
- Department of Epidemiology, Erasmus MC University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Renald Meçani
- Department of Pediatrics, “Mother Teresa” University Hospital Center, Tirana, University of Medicine, Tirana, Albania
- Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Department of Internal Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria
| | - Petek Eylul Taneri
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- HRB-Trials Methodology Research Network College of Medicine, Nursing and Health Sciences University of Galway, Galway, Ireland
| | | | - Peter Francis Raguindin
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Swiss Paraplegic Research, Nottwil, Switzerland
- Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Lucerne, Lucerne, Switzerland
| | - Faina Wehrli
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Farnaz Khatami
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Community Medicine, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | - Octavio Pano Espínola
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Department of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, University of Navarre, Pamplona, Spain
- Navarra Institute for Health Research, IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain
| | - Lyda Z. Rojas
- Research Group and Development of Nursing Knowledge (GIDCEN-FCV), Research Center, Cardiovascular Foundation of Colombia, Floridablanca, Santander, Colombia
| | | | | | - Fadi Alijla
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Graduate School for Health Sciences, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Beatrice Minder
- Public Health and Primary Care Library, University Library of Bern, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Alexander B. Leichtle
- University Institute of Clinical Chemistry, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, and Center for Artificial Intelligence in Medicine (CAIM), University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Nora Lüthi
- Emergency Department, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Freiburgstrasse 16C, 3010 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Simone Ehrhard
- Emergency Department, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Freiburgstrasse 16C, 3010 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Yok-Ai Que
- Department of Intensive Care Medicine, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
| | - Laurenz Kopp Fernandes
- Deutsches Herzzentrum Berlin (DHZB), Berlin, Germany
- Charité Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Wolf Hautz
- Emergency Department, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital, University of Bern, Freiburgstrasse 16C, 3010 Bern, Switzerland
| | - Taulant Muka
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Epistudia, Bern, Switzerland
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Abegaz KH, Etikan İ. Artificial Intelligence-Driven Ensemble Model for Predicting Mortality Due to COVID-19 in East Africa. Diagnostics (Basel) 2022; 12:2861. [PMID: 36428921 PMCID: PMC9689547 DOI: 10.3390/diagnostics12112861] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/23/2022] [Revised: 11/11/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
East Africa was not exempt from the devastating effects of COVID-19, which led to the nearly complete cessation of social and economic activities worldwide. The objective of this study was to predict mortality due to COVID-19 using an artificial intelligence-driven ensemble model in East Africa. The dataset, which spans two years, was divided into training and verification datasets. To predict the mortality, three steps were conducted, which included a sensitivity analysis, the modelling of four single AI-driven models, and development of four ensemble models. Four dominant input variables were selected to conduct the single models. Hence, the coefficients of determination of ANFIS, FFNN, SVM, and MLR were 0.9273, 0.8586, 0.8490, and 0.7956, respectively. The non-linear ensemble approaches performed better than the linear approaches, and the ANFIS ensemble was the best-performing ensemble approach that boosted the predicting performance of the single AI-driven models. This fact revealed the promising capability of ensemble models for predicting the daily mortality due to COVID-19 in other parts of the globe.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kedir Hussein Abegaz
- Biostatistics and Health Informatics, Public Health Department, Madda Walabu University, Robe 247, Ethiopia
- Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Near East University, Near East Avenue, North Cyprus, Mersin 10, Nicosia 99138, Turkey
| | - İlker Etikan
- HOD Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Near East University, Near East Avenue, North Cyprus, Mersin 10, Nicosia 99138, Turkey
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Velichko A, Huyut MT, Belyaev M, Izotov Y, Korzun D. Machine Learning Sensors for Diagnosis of COVID-19 Disease Using Routine Blood Values for Internet of Things Application. SENSORS (BASEL, SWITZERLAND) 2022; 22:7886. [PMID: 36298235 PMCID: PMC9610709 DOI: 10.3390/s22207886] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Revised: 10/10/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 05/16/2023]
Abstract
Healthcare digitalization requires effective applications of human sensors, when various parameters of the human body are instantly monitored in everyday life due to the Internet of Things (IoT). In particular, machine learning (ML) sensors for the prompt diagnosis of COVID-19 are an important option for IoT application in healthcare and ambient assisted living (AAL). Determining a COVID-19 infected status with various diagnostic tests and imaging results is costly and time-consuming. This study provides a fast, reliable and cost-effective alternative tool for the diagnosis of COVID-19 based on the routine blood values (RBVs) measured at admission. The dataset of the study consists of a total of 5296 patients with the same number of negative and positive COVID-19 test results and 51 routine blood values. In this study, 13 popular classifier machine learning models and the LogNNet neural network model were exanimated. The most successful classifier model in terms of time and accuracy in the detection of the disease was the histogram-based gradient boosting (HGB) (accuracy: 100%, time: 6.39 sec). The HGB classifier identified the 11 most important features (LDL, cholesterol, HDL-C, MCHC, triglyceride, amylase, UA, LDH, CK-MB, ALP and MCH) to detect the disease with 100% accuracy. In addition, the importance of single, double and triple combinations of these features in the diagnosis of the disease was discussed. We propose to use these 11 features and their binary combinations as important biomarkers for ML sensors in the diagnosis of the disease, supporting edge computing on Arduino and cloud IoT service.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrei Velichko
- Institute of Physics and Technology, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Ave., 185910 Petrozavodsk, Russia
| | - Mehmet Tahir Huyut
- Department of Biostatistics and Medical Informatics, Faculty of Medicine, Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University, 24000 Erzincan, Türkiye
| | - Maksim Belyaev
- Institute of Physics and Technology, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Ave., 185910 Petrozavodsk, Russia
| | - Yuriy Izotov
- Institute of Physics and Technology, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Ave., 185910 Petrozavodsk, Russia
| | - Dmitry Korzun
- Department of Computer Science, Institute of Mathematics and Information Technology, Petrozavodsk State University, 33 Lenin Ave., 185910 Petrozavodsk, Russia
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Zhao YS, Yu YX. Lymphocyte count predicts the severity of COVID-19: Evidence from a meta-analysis. World J Clin Infect Dis 2021; 11:49-59. [DOI: 10.5495/wjcid.v11.i3.49] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/27/2021] [Revised: 04/03/2021] [Accepted: 09/10/2021] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was reported firstly in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 is currently a global pandemic.
AIM To assess the suitability of lymphocyte count as a biomarker of COVID-19 severity.
METHODS Five literature databases (PubMed/MEDLINE, Web of Science, Google Scholar, Embase, and Scopus) were searched to identify eligible articles. A meta-analysis was performed to calculate the standard mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of lymphocyte counts in coronaviral pneumonia cases.
RESULTS Eight studies, including 1057 patients, were integrated in the meta-analysis. Lymphocyte counts were associated with severe coronavirus (CoV) infection (SMD = 1.35, 95%CI: 1.97 to 0.37, P < 0.001, I2 = 92.6%). In the subgroup analysis stratified by prognosis, lymphocytes were associated with CoV infection mortality (n = 2, SMD = 0.42, 95%CI: 0.66 to 0.19, P < 0.001, I2 = 0.0%), severity (n = 2, SMD = 0.93, 95%CI: 1.20 to 0.67, P < 0.001, I2 = 0.0%), and diagnostic rate (n = 4, SMD = 2.32, 95%CI: 3.60 to 1.04, P < 0.001, I2 = 91.2%).
CONCLUSION Lymphocyte count may represent a simple, rapid, and commonly available laboratory index with which to diagnosis infection and predict the severity of CoV infections, including COVID-19.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yi-Si Zhao
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
| | - Ying-Xi Yu
- Department of Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing 400016, China
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