Gender and age differences in components of traffic-related pedestrian death rates: exposure, risk of crash and fatality rate

Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years

PURPOSE

Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic costs. Iran experiences a high incidence of road traffic injuries, leading to a significant burden on society. This study aims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030, providing valuable insights for policy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

METHODS

This analytical study utilized time series models, specifically autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs), to predict the burden of road traffic accidents by analyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until 2030. The required data related to prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling and statistical analysis packages.

RESULTS

Both prediction models, ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates (per 100,000) of all road traffic injuries, except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend, remaining at around 430, increase by 2030. Based on estimations of both models, the rates of death and DALYs due to motor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries decrease. For motor vehicle road injuries, estimated trends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 deaths. Also, for pedestrian road injuries these rates reached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths, according to the models. For cyclists and other road traffic injuries, the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 40 and approximately 6.5. Moreover, these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1, while predictions conducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend, remaining at 0.43 and 0.07. According to the ANN model, the predicted rates of DALY and death for motorcyclists decrease to 100 and approximately 2.7, respectively. On the other hand, predictions made by the ARIMA model show a static trend, with rates remaining at 200 and approximately 3.2, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of road traffic injuries is predicted to increase, while the death and DALY rates of road traffic injuries show different patterns. Effective intervention programs and safety measures are necessary to prevent and reduce road traffic accidents. Different interventions should be designed and implemented specifically for different groups of pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists, and motor vehicle drivers.

Age, sex, sensation-seeking, and road-crossing: How does risk context impact children's street-crossing?

OBJECTIVE

Child pedestrian injuries are a significant public health problem, largely because children have underdeveloped cognitive-perceptual capacity to judge traffic unsupervised. This study used a virtual reality (VR) environment to examine the impact of children's age, as well as sex and sensation-seeking personality, on pedestrian behavior in different risk contexts.

METHODS

405 Norwegian children (7-10-year-olds) engaged in street-crossing scenarios within a VR environment. Children crossed a bicycle path and urban roadway six times, each with increasing density and complexity of traffic. Hits and near hits were recorded. Self-reported sensation-seeking personality was assessed.

RESULTS

Children were more likely to experience crashes in the tasks that offered higher probability risk. Overall, 106 children crossed safely in all tasks. Dangerous crossings were associated with male sex, higher thrill and intensity seeking personality, and denser traffic. Age was not related to any traffic safety outcomes.

CONCLUSION

As expected, children were struck by vehicles more often in complex traffic contexts than in less complex ones. The results support previous findings and suggest that boys and sensation seekers have elevated risk of pedestrian injury, and that individual differences in children, rather than age alone, must be considered when determining if children are capable of safely negotiating traffic unsupervised.

Temporal trends in the incidence and mortality of road injuries in China: Current trends and future predictions

BACKGROUND

China has the highest number of road injury deaths in the world. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term incidence and mortality trends of road injuries in China between 1990 and 2019 and to make projections up to 2030.

METHODS

Incident and death data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study and population data were extracted from the GBD 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019 studies. An age-period-cohort framework was used for the analysis.

RESULTS

In 2019, 16.1 million road injuries (age-standardized incidence rate [ASIR]: 991.3/100,000) occurred in China. Between 1990 and 2019, the ASIR of road injuries in China increased by 87.4 %. In 2019, there are 250.0 thousand road deaths (age-standardized mortality rate [ASMR]: 14.79/100,000), and the ASMR decreased by 27.0 % between 1990 and 2019. Period and cohort risks for the incidence of road injuries were increased for both sexes. Period and cohort risks for road injury mortality appeared to increase in recent period and birth cohorts. The ASIR of road injuries was projected to increase in the future, and the ASMR was projected to decrease; however, the ASIR of cyclist road injuries in females was projected to increase in the future. Among road injuries, elderly individuals were projected to have an increasing proportion of occurrence and death. Although the proportion is decreasing, pedestrian road injuries were projected to still account for more than half of road injury deaths in China up to 2030.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of road injuries in China has increased overall, while the overall mortality rate has decreased over the past 30 years, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. Effective effort is needed to improve road safety, especially for elderly individuals and female cyclists. In addition, pedestrian road safety also needs to be improved.

Thoughts and perspectives on biomechanical numerical models under impacts: Are women forgotten from research?

The present paper explores a series of articles in the literature which deal with impact biomechanics of the head and thorax/abdomen segments, investigating the "sex specific properties/data" used in the studies. Statements in these studies are analyzed and point out, the use of male or female subjects for the developments of finite element models and their validation against experimental data. The present analysis raises the question about "androcentrism," and how biomechanical engineering findings and the design of the derived protecting devices are focused on male subjects.

[Social inequalities related to road traffic mortality]

OBJECTIVE

To synthesize the social inequalities related to mortality from traffic accidents reported in scientific publications.

METHOD

A scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR guide was carried out. Using the MesH vocabulary, we systematically searched for articles in English, Portuguese and Spanish published in the EBSCO, Scielo, Scopus, Ovid, and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We identified 47,790 records in the initial search, of which 35 articles met the selection criteria. Nine out ten publications are in high-income countries; there is a greater interest in analyzing mortality in occupants and drivers of vehicles and motorcyclists. Half of the publications use race-ethnicity and geolocation as socioeconomic position variables. The articles included in this review indicate that groups of people with low socioeconomic positions have higher mortality due to traffic accidents.

CONCLUSIONS

The highest mortality from traffic accidents occurs in people with low socioeconomic positions which suggests the development of road safety actions from a comprehensive, integrative perspective and linked to other political agendas to reduce their incidence by 2030. Although road traffic fatalities are higher in low and middle-income countries, few publications are available in these countries. It is necessary to strengthen the research capacities in these countries.

Burden of road traffic injuries in Iran: a national and subnational perspective, 1990-2019

OBJECTIVES

Reliable and valid information on burden of road traffic injuries (RTIs) is essential for short-term and long-term planning. We designed the present study to describe the levels and trends of burden of RTIs in Iran from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

This is an observational epidemiological study. We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 estimates to report RTIs incidence, prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by sex, age group and road user category in Iran and each of the 31 provinces from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

Age-standardised incidence, prevalence, death and DALY rates of RTIs decreased by 31.7% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 29.4 to 33.9), 34.9% (33.8 to 36.0), 57.7% (48.1 to 62.3) and 60.1% (51.7 to 65.2), respectively between 1990 and 2019. The 2019 age-standardised DALY rates varied from smallest value in Tehran 303.8 (216.9 to 667.2) per 100 000 to largest value in Sistan-Baluchistan 2286.8 (1978.1 to 2627.9) per 100 000. The burden of RTIs was mainly related to injuries sustained by drivers or passengers of motorised vehicles with three or more wheels and pedestrians' injuries, mostly affected males aged 15-29 years and individuals aged ≥70 years.

CONCLUSION

The reducing trend in the burden of RTIs in Iran possibly reflects the effectiveness of the intervention programmes. However, with regard to the Sustainable Development Goals the burden is still at an alarming level. Further reductions are necessary for specific road user groups such as adolescent and adult male drivers or passengers of motorised vehicles, also pedestrians aged ≥70 years.

Associations between walkability and pedestrian related injuries is modified by sociodemographic characteristics

BACKGROUND

Walkability scores have been developed to measure how well the characteristics of the physical environment support walking. However, because pedestrian safety is not taken into account, areas that have higher Walk Scores could be associated with more walking and also more pedestrian-related injury. We aimed to explore the association between Walk Score and pedestrian-related injury in Sydney.

METHOD

Pedestrian-related injuries from 2010 to 2018 in Sydney were identified in the New South Wales Combined Admitted Patient Epidemiology Data. Walk Score was used to measure area-level walkability in Sydney statistical division. Regression models were used to examine the association between Walk Score, pedestrian-related injury, length of hospital stay (LOS) and injury severity.

RESULT

Among people aged ≤64 years, there was no significant association between walkability score and pedestrian-related injury. Among people aged ≥ 65 years, walkability score was significantly positively associated with pedestrian-related injury, which peaked at Somewhat Walkable. For most disadvantaged areas, the risk of pedestrian-related injury was highest for areas that were classified as Somewhat Walkable. For moderately disadvantaged areas, the risk of pedestrian-related injury was highest at Very Walkable to Walker's Paradise areas. For the least disadvantaged areas, there was no significant association between walkability score and pedestrian-related injury. For LOS among people aged ≥ 65 years or in the most disadvantaged areas, it peaked at Somewhat Walkable areas. For injury severity, the risk of serious pedestrian-related injury was highest at Very Walkable to Walker's Paradise areas among people aged 16-64 years.

CONCLUSION

For the majority of the population, built environment characteristics that are considered to make walking attractive also make it safer, offsetting any exposure-related increase injury risk. However, this is not the case for people aged ≥ 19 years, and those living in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. Incorporating measures of pedestrian safety in walkability scores may create an impetus to ensure that the built environment is designed to support the safety of pedestrians from these groups.

An Advanced Machine Learning Approach to Predicting Pedestrian Fatality Caused by Road Crashes: A Step toward Sustainable Pedestrian Safety

More than 8000 pedestrians were killed due to road crashes in Australia over the last 30 years. Pedestrians are assumed to be the most vulnerable users of roads. This susceptibility of pedestrians to road crashes conflicts with sustainable transportation objectives. It is critical to know the causes of pedestrian injuries in order to enhance the safety of these vulnerable road users. To achieve this, traditional statistical models are used frequently. However, they have been criticized for their inflexibility in handling outliers and missing or noisy data, and their strict pre-assumptions. This study applied an advanced machine learning algorithm, a Bayesian neural network, which has the characters of both Bayesian theory and neural networks. Several structures of this model were built, and the best structure was selected, which included three hidden neuron layers—sixteen hidden nodes in the first layer and eight hidden nodes in the second and third layers. The performance of this model was compared with the performances of some other machine learning techniques, including standard Bayesian networks, a standard neural network, and a random forest model. The Bayesian neural network model outperformed the other models. In addition, a study on the importance of the features showed that the individuals’ characteristics, time, and circumstantial factors were essential. They greatly increased model performance if the model used them. This research lays the groundwork for using machine learning approaches to alleviate pedestrian deaths caused by road accidents.

Needs for International Benchmarking of Road Safety Management Based on Mobility Exposure Measures and Risk Patterns

Each year, 1.35 million people worldwide die due to Road Traffic Injuries (RTI), highlighting the need for further research. The risk of RTI is usually estimated as the number of casualties divided by the level of exposure in a population. Identifying the most appropriate exposure measures is one of the most important current challenges in this field. This paper presents an analysis of exposure measures used in empirical studies on road accidents. The results show a large variability in the exposure measures used, ranging from more general measures (such as population figures or vehicle fleet) to more specific measures related to mobility (such as number of trips, distances or travel time). A comparison of the risk patterns found shows that there is a partial consensus on the profiles with the highest risk of road traffic injuries. In conclusion, there is a need for the international standardization of criteria and data to be recorded, at least injury severity and measures of exposure to mobility, as the travel time disaggregated by socio-demographic variables and mode of transport. Such data would provide higher-quality results on risk profiles and facilitate the implementation of more effective, knowledge-based road safety policies.

Traffic Injury Risk Based on Mobility Patterns by Gender, Age, Mode of Transport and Type of Road

The role of gender and age in the risk of Road Traffic Injury (RTI) has not been fully explored and there are still significant gaps with regard to how environmental factors, such as road type, affect this relationship, including mobility as a measure of exposure. The aim of this research is to investigate the influence of the environmental factor road type taking into account different mobility patterns. For this purpose, a cross-sectional study was carried out combining two large databases on mobility and traffic accidents in Andalusia (Spain). The risk of RTI and their severity were estimated by gender and age, transport mode and road type, including travel time as a measure of exposure. Significant differences were found according to road type. The analysis of the rate ratio (Ratemen/Ratewomen), regardless of age, shows that men always have a higher risk of serious and fatal injuries in all modes of transport and road types. Analysis of victim rates by gender and age groups allows us to identify the most vulnerable groups. The results highlight the need to include not only gender and age but also road type as a significant environmental factor in RTI risk analysis for the development of effective mobility and road safety strategies.

A state-of-the-art review of factors that predict mortality among traumatic injury patients following a road traffic crash

BACKGROUND

Traffic related injuries are a major public health problem worldwide with millions of people dying every year. The objective of this state-of-the-art review was to identify the factors reported in the literature as being associated with mortality for trauma patients following road traffic crashes.

METHOD

A systematic search was undertaken of PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library databases to identify articles published in the past two decades (2000-2020). Of 8257 records, 4507 remained for title, abstract and full text screening after duplicates were removed. The level of evidence of selected studies was assessed using The National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) guideline.

RESULTS

This review included eighty primary research studies examining mortality risk factors following a road traffic crash. The study identified factors in five categories; (i) demographic factors; (ii) behavioural factors; (iii) crash characteristics; (iv) environmental and timing factors; (v) injury severity and pre-injury/condition. The primary studies are summarised in a matrix. Included studies included level II to level IV levels of evidence based on the NHMRC criteria.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that there are a large number of factors associated with increased risk of mortality following diverse types of traffic crashes. Understanding these wide-ranging factors can strengthen injury and mortality prevention by guiding decision makers about where to focus strategy implementation.

Economic Value of Life in Iran: The Human Capital Approach

Background:

The human life value is among the most important challenges of the health economic evaluation. This limitation has reduced the feasibility of applying the cost-benefit method in evaluations of health interventions and policies. Using the human capital approach and discounted value of future earnings, the present study calculated the human capital of different age groups.

Methods:

The required data were obtained using “income and expenditures of Iranian households” data in 2015 from the Statistical Center of Iran, which included the information on 19380 urban households.

Results:

According to the calculation of human capital, the maximum value of a statistical life year in the high-income group was related to the age group of 30–34 yr old (223,286 US$ equals to 9378 million Iranian Rials). The lowest value in all three groups of high, medium and low income is related to the age group of 85 and older. In addition, the economic value of statistical life year for men has been calculated as higher than that of women, however, in older age groups, the human capital of both genders have been converging.

Conclusion:

The economic value of life for young people aged between 20 to 30 yr was higher than other demographic groups. The findings of the research help to provide a more accurate base for the cost-benefit analysis of health and social policies. Considering the economic value of the statistical life for different age groups may change policy priorities in areas related to health and life of human beings.

Not gendered… but different from each other? A structural equation model for explaining risky road behaviors of female and male pedestrians

As alternative transportation is getting more and more fashionable, and more people worldwide are "shifting" to walking trips, even for their daily commuting, traffic crashes suffered by pedestrians are still a great concern for road safety and public health researchers and practitioners. In this regard, risky or "aberrant" road behaviors have emerged, during the last few years, as a key issue to be considered for crash prevention. Nevertheless, the idea of a "generic pedestrian" is getting re-evaluated, and analyzing key features, such as gender, seems to be crucial for understanding pedestrians' performance and safety outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to examine the effect of gender on pedestrians' both deliberate (traffic violations) and undeliberate (errors) risky walking behaviors, considering a set of theoretically based demographic and psychosocial variables as their potential predictors.

METHOD

For this cross-sectional study, data from 1070 Spanish pedestrians (60 % females and 40 % males, aged between 16 and 79) from the 17 regions of Spain, responding to an electronic questionnaire, were analyzed through a multi-group structural equation modeling (MGSEM) approach.

RESULTS

Although age, handheld device-interaction, and sensation-seeking seem to have a similar effect on the errors and violations reported by both genders (similarities), factors such as risk perception, educational level and the misbehaviors observed in other road users are significant predictors only in the case of male pedestrians. On the other hand, road distractions have been shown to play a significant role in females' errors and violations, while males' road distractions seem to only affect their involuntary risky behaviors.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study support the influence of gender in the statistical explanation of both deliberate and undeliberate walking risky road behaviors, also depicting the differential role of certain demographic and psychosocial factors when we compare male and female pedestrians.

Patient and injury characteristics associated with road traffic mortality in general hospitals in southern Thailand

Background

Road traffic injuries are a major public health burden in developing countries. Thailand has the highest fatality rate from road traffic injuries in southeast Asia so that prevention of unintentional injuries is important.

Objective

To identify patient and injury characteristics associated with road traffic mortality in the southern provinces of Thailand.

Methods

Data on a total of 78,862 road traffic injuries recorded by the general hospitals in 5 southern provinces of Thailand, during 2008–2013, were obtained from the Office of Disease Prevention and Control. Chi-squared test was used to determine the association between patient/injury characteristics and road traffic mortality, and logistic regression was used to identify the strength of associations.

Results

In this study, road traffic mortality was found to be 1.8% of all injuries. Most of the deaths occurred in males (61.7%), who were aged 25–44 years (35.8%), being drivers (68.6%), using motorcycle (78.4%), and not wearing a helmet (61.0%). Road traffic mortality was higher among males, older age people, those who were not wearing a helmet or not fastening a seat belt, pedestrians and when people crashed with or by motor car, with wound being penetrating or blunt with penetrating, and when they were having head or neck, chest, or abdominal or pelvic cavity injuries.

Conclusion

Policies and measures for reducing road traffic mortality should focus on males and older aged persons, use of safety devices, and occurrence of multiple injuries.

The Cost Analysis of Patients with Traffic Traumatic Injuries Presenting to Emergency Department; a Cross-sectional Study

Introduction

Road traffic traumatic injuries are the leading cause of death especially among young men who are mostly vulnerable victims. This catastrophe is more complicated in low to middle-income countries.

Objective

This study assessed the financial costs of traffic casualties in a level-1 trauma university hospital.

Method

One thousand trauma patients presenting to the emergency department of Shohaday-e-Tajrish Hospital were included in the study. The prehospital and hospital costs as well as the expenses of physiotherapy, rehabilitation, outpatient visits and further surgical interventions were considered as direct expenses. The costs of productivity loss were estimated as indirect expenses.

Results

The direct and indirect costs were assessed 27.4% and 72.6% of total, respectively. The mean age of permanent disability was 43 years old. The average expenses of temporary and permanent disabilities were 2934.4 million rials, equal to 106 thousand $ (nearly 4.2 million rials or 153 $ per patient) and 23.9 billion rials, equal to 866.3 thousand $ (1.1 billion rials or 39.2 thousand $ per person), respectively.

Conclusion

The national burden of traffic injuries in Iran is significantly destructive as it consists of 2.19 % of Gross Domestic Product annually. Besides, young men are involved in most of the traffic accidents representing the need to establish rigorous preventive instructions and reduce human, and financial costs.

Inequalities in the risk of disability due to traffic injuries in the Spanish adult population, 2009-2010

BACKGROUND

Although traffic injuries (TIs) are an important cause of disability the related factors are little known. We aimed to estimate the differences in risk of TI-related disability according to individual characteristics that might generate health inequalities.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using a representative Spanish population sample drawn from the European Health Interview Survey 2009/2010. We calculated traffic crashes in the preceding year which resulted in injuries. Disability was measured using the Global Activity Limitation Indicator and four indicators of limitations (sensory, physical functional, self-care and domestic activities). Principal socio-demographic and behavioural/lifestyle variables were studied. We used multivariate logistic regression to estimate the risk (ORs) of TI-related disability in the sample as whole and disability-related factors in persons who had experienced TIs.

RESULTS

Persons with TIs had a higher risk of global disability (OR = 1.61; 95%CI:1.17-2.20), physical functional limitations (OR = 1.96; 95%CI:1.33-2.89) and self-care limitations (OR = 1.73; 95%CI:0.98-3.05). Among persons with TIs, GALI-related risk was higher in women (OR = 3.06, p = 0.002) and persons aged over 30 years (OR_31-45years = 6.81, p < 0.001; OR_46-64years = 5.96, p = 0.011; OR_>64years = 4.54, p = 0.047). Lower risk was observed among persons with a higher educational level (OR = 0.22, p = 0.003). The risk of disability among persons with TIs who consumed illegal drugs was OR = 3.9 (p = 0.023).

CONCLUSIONS

Traffic injuries in the preceding year are associated with higher risk of disability, which is unevenly distributed. Individual (women and persons over 30 years), socio-economic (lower educational level) and behavioural (illegal drug use) factors are involved. Actions aimed at changing the unequal risk among vulnerable subgroups and providing health, social and protective services should be implemented.