Thin primary cutaneous malignant melanoma: a prognostic tree for 10-year metastasis is more accurate than American Joint Committee on Cancer staging

Diagnostic and prognostic risk factors analysis for distant metastasis in melanoma: a population-based study

BACKGROUND

We aimed to develop tools that could predict the occurrence of distant metastases in melanoma and its prognosis based on clinical and pathological characteristics.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We obtained data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of melanoma patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2019. Logistic analyses were performed to identify independent risk factors associated with distant metastasis. Additionally, multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to determine independent prognostic factors for patients with distant metastasis. Two nomograms were established and evaluated with the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, we performed a retrospective analysis of melanoma with distant metastasis from our institute between March 2018 and June 2022.

RESULTS

Of the total 19 396 melanoma patients, 352 (1.8%) had distant metastases at the time of diagnosis. The following clinical and pathological characteristics were identified as independent risk factors for distant metastasis in melanoma: N stage, tumor size, ulceration, mitosis, primary tumor site, and pathological subtype. Furthermore, tumor size, pathological subtype, and radiotherapy were identified as independent prognostic factors. The results of the training and validation cohorts' ROC curves, calibration, DCA, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves demonstrate the effectiveness of the two nomograms. The retrospective study results from our center supported the results from the SEER database.

CONCLUSION

The clinical and pathological characteristics of melanoma can predict a patient's risk of metastasis and prognosis, and the two nomograms are expected to be effective tools to guide therapy decisions.

Long-term outcomes and patterns of recurrence in patients with thin melanoma and a negative sentinel lymph node biopsy: a single-center experience

The majority of patients diagnosed with melanoma have thin melanomas (≤1 mm). Data on the rate and pattern of recurrence after a negative sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) are sparse. We retrospectively searched our institutional database and retrieved the records of patients with thin melanomas who underwent an SLNB with negative results. We analyzed patterns of recurrence, time to recurrence, and mode of diagnosis. Thirteen of the 198 patients with thin melanomas and negative SLNB results had tumor recurrence (6.5%): two local in transit (15.4%), three regional (21.3%), and eight distant (61.5%). Distant recurrences tended to occur later than local or regional ones [median disease-free survival = 50 months (95% confidence interval: 36.1-63.9) vs. 34 and 15 months (95% confidence interval: 5.4-24.6), P = 0.005, respectively]. The percentage of patients with tumor thickness ≥0.8 mm was higher among those who sustained recurrence (84.6 vs. 64.9% for no recurrence, P = 0.04). The majority of patients with recurrence were not being followed up when diagnosed (69%), and they are presented because of clinical symptoms. Patients with recurrence had lower survival compared with those without recurrence (median: 118 months vs. ongoing survival, P < 0.001, respectively). Melanoma recurrence in patients with thin melanomas and negative SLNBs is rare, tends to be distant, and negatively affects prognosis. Recurrence tends to occur in patients with melanoma thickness ≥0.8 mm. Further studies are needed to identify patients with high recurrence risk and determine optimal follow-up protocols.

Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the specific mortality risk of melanoma in upper limbs based on the SEER database

For patients with upper limb melanoma, the significance of specific death is more important than that of all-cause death, and traditional survival analysis may overestimate the mortality rate of patients. Therefore, the nomogram model for predicting the specific mortality risk of melanoma in the upper limbs was developed. A population with melanoma in the upper limbs, diagnosed from 2010 to 2015, were selected from the National Cancer Institute database of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER). The independent predictive factors of specific death were confirmed by the competing risk model of one-factor analysis and multi-factor analysis, and the nomogram was constructed according to the independent predictive factors. 17,200 patients with upper limb melanoma were enrolled in the study (training cohort: n = 12,040; validation cohort: n = 5160). Multi-factor analysis of the competing risk model showed that age, marital status, gender, tumor stage, T stage, M stage, regional lymph node surgery information, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, mitotic cell count, ulcer and whether there were multiple primary cancers, were independent factors affecting the specific death of upper limb melanoma patients (P < 0.05). The nomogram has good predictive ability regarding the specific mortality risk of melanoma in the upper limbs, and could be of great help to formulate prognostic treatment strategies and follow-up strategies that are conducive to survival.

The Burden of Thin Melanomas in Tuscany, Italy, 1985-2017: Age- and Sex-Specific Temporal Trends in Incidence and Mortality

A steady increase in the incidence and mortality burden correlated to thin melanomas (≤1 mm) has been reported in recent years in some international studies, but there is currently a paucity of data from the Mediterranean area. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics of thin melanoma in Tuscany, Central Italy. A total of 6002 first cutaneous invasive melanomas occurring from 1985 to 2017 were selected for analysis; data were retrieved from the local population-based cancer registry. The standardized incidence rate was 15.0 per 100,000 in the population, higher among men than women (16.5 vs. 14.1). Incidence rates tended to increase over time across all age group-specific population strata, with annual percent changes moderately higher among men (+8.0%) than women (+6.9%), especially among the elderly. Among both sexes and in each age group, the trend toward increasing incidence rates was particularly strong for thin melanomas. Survival was better among women than men across all categories of thickness. Approximately 15% of deaths occurred among patients with thin lesions, with no major temporal changes in recent years. This study contributes to an improved understanding of melanoma epidemiology in Tuscany and underscores the need for primary prevention strategies tackling the growing burden of thin melanomas.

Predictive accuracy of risk prediction models for recurrence, metastasis and survival for early-stage cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review

OBJECTIVES

To identify prognostic models for melanoma survival, recurrence and metastasis among American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I and II patients postsurgery; and evaluate model performance, including overall survival (OS) prediction.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis.

DATA SOURCES

Searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index and grey literature sources including cancer and guideline websites from 2000 to September 2021.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Included studies on risk prediction models for stage I and II melanoma in adults ≥18 years. Outcomes included OS, recurrence, metastases and model performance. No language or country of publication restrictions were applied.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Two pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias using the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist and the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Heterogeneous predictors prevented statistical synthesis.

RESULTS

From 28 967 records, 15 studies reporting 20 models were included; 8 (stage I), 2 (stage II), 7 (stages I-II) and 7 (stages not reported), but were clearly applicable to early stages. Clinicopathological predictors per model ranged from 3-10. The most common were: ulceration, Breslow thickness/depth, sociodemographic status and site. Where reported, discriminatory values were ≥0.7. Calibration measures showed good matches between predicted and observed rates. None of the studies assessed clinical usefulness of the models. Risk of bias was high in eight models, unclear in nine and low in three. Seven models were internally and externally cross-validated, six models were externally validated and eight models were internally validated.

CONCLUSIONS

All models are effective in their predictive performance, however the low quality of the evidence raises concern as to whether current follow-up recommendations following surgical treatment is adequate. Future models should incorporate biomarkers for improved accuracy.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018086784.

Optimal surveillance strategies for patients with stage 1 cutaneous melanoma post primary tumour excision: three systematic reviews and an economic model

BACKGROUND

Malignant melanoma is the fifth most common cancer in the UK, with rates continuing to rise, resulting in considerable burden to patients and the NHS.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of current and alternative follow-up strategies for stage IA and IB melanoma.

REVIEW METHODS

Three systematic reviews were conducted. (1) The effectiveness of surveillance strategies. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's Risk-of-Bias 2.0 tool. (2) Prediction models to stratify by risk of recurrence, metastases and survival. Model performance was assessed by study-reported measures of discrimination (e.g. D-statistic, Harrel's c-statistic), calibration (e.g. the Hosmer-Lemeshow 'goodness-of-fit' test) or overall performance (e.g. Brier score, R ²). Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST). (3) Diagnostic test accuracy of fine-needle biopsy and ultrasonography. Outcomes were detection of new primaries, recurrences, metastases and overall survival. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. Review data and data from elsewhere were used to model the cost-effectiveness of alternative surveillance strategies and the value of further research.

RESULTS

(1) The surveillance review included one randomised controlled trial. There was no evidence of a difference in new primary or recurrence detected (risk ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval 0.43 to 1.31). Risk of bias was considered to be of some concern. Certainty of the evidence was low. (2) Eleven risk prediction models were identified. Discrimination measures were reported for six models, with the area under the operating curve ranging from 0.59 to 0.88. Three models reported calibration measures, with coefficients of ≥ 0.88. Overall performance was reported by two models. In one, the Brier score was slightly better than the American Joint Committee on Cancer scheme score. The other reported an R ² of 0.47 (95% confidence interval 0.45 to 0.49). All studies were judged to have a high risk of bias. (3) The diagnostic test accuracy review identified two studies. One study considered fine-needle biopsy and the other considered ultrasonography. The sensitivity and specificity for fine-needle biopsy were 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97) and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.97), respectively. For ultrasonography, sensitivity and specificity were 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 1.00) and 0.99 (95% confidence interval 0.96 to 0.99), respectively. For the reference standards and flow and timing domains, the risk of bias was rated as being high for both studies. The cost-effectiveness results suggest that, over a lifetime, less intensive surveillance than recommended by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence might be worthwhile. There was considerable uncertainty. Improving the diagnostic performance of cancer nurse specialists and introducing a risk prediction tool could be promising. Further research on transition probabilities between different stages of melanoma and on improving diagnostic accuracy would be of most value.

LIMITATIONS

Overall, few data of limited quality were available, and these related to earlier versions of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging. Consequently, there was considerable uncertainty in the economic evaluation.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite adoption of rigorous methods, too few data are available to justify changes to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence recommendations on surveillance. However, alternative strategies warrant further research, specifically on improving estimates of incidence, progression of recurrent disease; diagnostic accuracy and health-related quality of life; developing and evaluating risk stratification tools; and understanding patient preferences.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018086784.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol 25, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Unraveling the Relevance of ARL GTPases in Cutaneous Melanoma Prognosis through Integrated Bioinformatics Analysis

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is the deadliest skin cancer, whose molecular pathways underlying its malignancy remain unclear. Therefore, new information to guide evidence-based clinical decisions is required. Adenosine diphosphate (ADP)-ribosylation factor-like (ARL) proteins are membrane trafficking regulators whose biological relevance in CM is undetermined. Here, we investigated ARL expression and its impact on CM prognosis and immune microenvironment through integrated bioinformatics analysis. Our study found that all 22 ARLs are differentially expressed in CM. Specifically, ARL1 and ARL11 are upregulated and ARL15 is downregulated regardless of mutational frequency or copy number variations. According to TCGA data, ARL1 and ARL15 represent independent prognostic factors in CM as well as ARL11 based on GEPIA and OncoLnc. To investigate the mechanisms by which ARL1 and ARL11 increase patient survival while ARL15 reduces it, we evaluated their correlation with the immune microenvironment. CD4+ T cells and neutrophil infiltrates are significantly increased by ARL1 expression. Furthermore, ARL11 expression was correlated with 17 out of 21 immune infiltrates, including CD8+ T cells and M2 macrophages, described as having anti-tumoral activity. Likewise, ARL11 is interconnected with ZAP70, ADAM17, and P2RX7, which are implicated in immune cell activation. Collectively, this study provides the first evidence that ARL1, ARL11, and ARL15 may influence CM progression, prognosis, and immune microenvironment remodeling.

Malignant melanoma without primary, presenting as solitary pulmonary nodule: a case report

Background

Solitary pulmonary nodules are the most common incidental finding on chest imaging. Their management is very well defined by several guidelines, with risk calculators for lung cancer being the gold standard. Solitary intramuscular metastasis combined with a solitary pulmonary nodule from malignant melanoma without a primary site is rare.

Case presentation

A 57-year-old white male was referred to our lung cancer service with solitary pulmonary nodule. After positron-emission tomography, we performed an ultrasound-guided core needle biopsy of an intramuscular solitary lesion, not identified on computed tomography scan, and diagnosed metastatic malignant melanoma. The solitary pulmonary nodule was resected and also confirmed metastatic melanoma. There was no primary skin lesion. The patient received oral targeted therapy and is disease-free 5 years later.

Conclusions

Clinicians dealing with solitary pulmonary nodules must remain vigilant for other extrathoracic malignancies even in the absence of obvious past history. Lung metastasectomy may have a role in metastatic malignant melanoma with unknown primary.

Reappraisal of the prognostic significance of mitotic rate supports its reincorporation into the melanoma staging system

BACKGROUND

Mitotic rate is a strong, independent prognostic factor in patients with melanoma. However, incorporating it into the melanoma staging system has proved challenging.

METHODS

The prognostic impact of mitotic rate was assessed in a melanoma cohort comprising 5050 patients from 2 geographically distinct populations. Computer-generated cut points for mitotic rate were constructed to determine its impact on melanoma-associated survival using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate regression analyses. The impact of mitotic rate also was assessed in randomly split training and validation sets.

RESULTS

Mitotic rate had a nonlinear impact on survival, as evidenced by unequally spaced cut points. An index incorporating these cut points that was constructed from one population produced significantly more accurate predictions of survival in the other population than using the entire scale of mitotic rate. An index constructed from the combined cohort was found to be independently predictive of survival, with an impact comparable to that of ulceration. Optimal high-versus-low cut points for mitotic rate were generated separately for each T category (<2 mitoses/mm² vs ≥2 mitoses/mm² for T1 melanoma, <4 mitoses/mm² vs ≥4 mitoses/mm² for T2 melanoma, <6 mitoses/mm² vs ≥6/mitoses/mm² for T3 melanoma, and <7 mitoses/mm² vs ≥7 mitoses/mm² for T4 melanoma). Using Kaplan-Meier analysis, elevated mitotic rate was found to have an impact on survival comparable to that of ulceration within each T category. Application of the index for mitotic rate that was constructed from the training data set demonstrated an independent impact in the validation data set, with a significance similar to that of ulceration.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of the current study demonstrated the comparable prognostic impact of mitotic rate and ulceration, providing support for its reincorporation into the T category.

Loss of testosterone impairs anti-tumor neutrophil function

In men, the incidence of melanoma rises rapidly after age 50, and nearly two thirds of melanoma deaths are male. The immune system is known to play a key role in controlling the growth and spread of malignancies, but whether age- and sex-dependent changes in immune cell function account for this effect remains unknown. Here, we show that in castrated male mice, neutrophil maturation and function are impaired, leading to elevated metastatic burden in two models of melanoma. Replacement of testosterone effectively normalized the tumor burden in castrated male mice. Further, the aberrant neutrophil phenotype was also observed in prostate cancer patients receiving androgen deprivation therapy, highlighting the evolutionary conservation and clinical relevance of the phenotype. Taken together, these results provide a better understanding of the role of androgen signaling in neutrophil function and the impact of this biology on immune control of malignancies.

It is known that there are sex differences in the incidence and prognosis of certain cancers, including melanoma. In this study, the authors utilize a melanoma model to reveal that castrated mice have a higher metastatic burden associated with androgen dependent impaired neutrophil function.

A Population-Based Comparison of the AJCC 7th and AJCC 8th Editions for Patients Diagnosed with Stage III Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Cutaneous melanoma is steadily increasing worldwide. The new AJCC 8th edition was recently launched and introduced several changes in melanoma staging, particularly for stage III. We conducted a population-based registry study with the purpose to evaluate the impact and prognostic accuracy of the new classification in Sweden.

METHODS

Consecutive patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma between January 2005 and September 2017 were identified by the Swedish Melanoma Registry (SMR) and included for analyses. Patients with multiple primary melanomas were excluded. Patients were classified according to the AJCC 7th as well as the 8th edition. Melanoma-specific survival (MSS) was retrieved from the Swedish Cause of Death Registry.

RESULTS

A total of 2067 eligible patients were identified from the SMR; 1150 patients (57%) changed stage III subgroup when reclassified according to the AJCC 8th edition. The median 5- and 10-year MSS for the whole cohort of stage III melanoma patients was 59% and 51% respectively. The MSS for substage IIIA, B, and C were all improved when patients were reclassified by using to the AJCC 8th edition. The newly defined substage IIID had the worst prognosis with a 10-year MSS of 16%.

CONCLUSIONS

A high proportion of patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma in Sweden between 2005 and 2017 was restaged to another subgroup, when they were reclassified according to the AJCC 8th of staging manual. We established an improved MSS for all substages compared with the former AJCC 7th edition. This may have implications on decisions about adjuvant treatment.

Local recurrence and metastasis in patients with malignant melanomas after surgery: A single-center analysis of 202 patients in South Korea

Malignant melanoma (MM) is a lethal skin cancer in Western countries. Although the incidence is low in Asians compared to that in Caucasians, it is increasing. However, literature regarding risk factors for prognosis of MM patients who have undergone surgical excision in Asian is limited. This study aimed to investigate the predictive factors for local recurrence and metastasis in MM patients who underwent surgical treatment at a single tertiary-level hospital in Korea. Patients who underwent surgery for MM at our institution between January 1998 and December 2014 were analyzed. We retrospectively investigated risk factors for local recurrence and metastasis after surgery. In cases with distant metastasis, tumor thickness (adjusted Hazard Ratio (HR), 6.139; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.152 to 17.509; P = 0.001) and increased mitotic number [(0-1/mm² vs 2-6/mm²: adjusted HR, 4.483; 95% CI, 1.233 to 16.303; P = 0.023); (0-1/mm² vs > 6/mm²: adjusted HR, 10.316; 95% CI, 2.871 to 37.063; P < 0.001)] were associated with risk in multivariate analysis. Regarding local recurrence, tumor thickness (T4 [≥4mm] vs T1) was found to be a significant risk factor (adjusted HR, 8.461; 95% CI, 2.514 to 28.474; P = 0.001). Our data revealed tumor thickness and increased mitotic count were significant risk factors for local recurrence and distant metastasis in Korean patients with MM after surgery.

Predictors of sentinel lymph node positivity in thin melanoma using the National Cancer Database

BACKGROUND

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) specimens are often obtained from patients for further staging after these patients have undergone melanoma excision. Limited data regarding predictors of SLNB positivity in thin melanoma are available.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to evaluate predictors of SLNB positivity in thin melanoma.

METHODS

Patients with cutaneous melanoma with a Breslow thickness ≤1.00 mm who received a SLNB were identified from the National Cancer Database between 2004 and 2014 (n = 9186). Predictors of SLNB positivity were analyzed using logistic regression.

RESULTS

In a multivariate analysis, patients <60 years of age (P < .001) and Breslow thickness >0.8 mm (P = .03) were at increased risk for positive sentinel lymph node (SLN). Moreover, on multivariate analysis, the presence of dermal mitoses increased the odds of SLN positivity by 95% (odds ratio [OR] 1.95 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.53-2.5], P < .001), ulceration by 63% (OR 1.63 [95% CI 1.21-2.18], P < .001), and Clark level IV to V by 48% (OR 1.48 [95% CI 1.19-1.85]). Patients without ulceration but with dermal mitoses had 92% (OR 1.92 [95% CI 1.5-2.48], P < .001) increased SLN positivity.

LIMITATIONS

Limited survival data are available.

CONCLUSIONS

Younger age, a Breslow thickness >0.8 mm, the presence of dermal mitoses, ulceration, and Clark level IV to V are positive predictors of positive SLN. While the new American Joint Committee on Cancer system has removed dermal mitotic rate from staging, continued evaluation of dermal mitotic rate could be valuable for guiding surgical decision making about SLNB.

Conditional recurrence-free survival in patients with primary stage I-II cutaneous malignant melanoma - a population-based study

Conditional survival in patients with localized primary cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) is well described. However, conditional recurrence-free survival (RFS) has not been investigated before. The aim of this study was to determine conditional RFS and test for time dependency in prognostic factors in patients with localized stage I-II CMM. This study included 1437 CMM patients registered in one region of Sweden during 1999-2012 followed up through 31 December 2012. To identify first recurrence of CMM disease, data from a care data warehouse, the pathology and radiology department registries were used. Patients were also followed through a Census Register and the National Cause of Death Register. The time-dependent risk of recurrence was analysed in a Cox's proportional hazard regression. The 5-year conditional RFS increased from 86% (95% confidence interval: 84-88) at diagnosis to 96% (95% confidence interval: 94-98) at 5 years after diagnosis. Women showed a 60% lower risk of recurrence than men and this effect was stable over time (P=0.39). Patients aged greater than or equal to 65 years had a 40% higher risk of recurrence than patients aged less than 65 years, and this effect was stable over time (P=0.65). Patients with tumour ulceration showed a 70% higher risk of recurrence than nonulcerated patients, but this effect disappeared after 2 years (P=0.04). For patients with T3-T4 CMM, the hazard ratios decreased over time and were similar to hazard ratio of patients with T2 CMM after 2 years and later. The decreasing impact of tumour thickness and ulceration over time could have important implications for CMM patients in terms of counselling and follow-up.

Vertical Growth Phase as a Prognostic Factor for Sentinel Lymph Node Positivity in Thin Melanomas: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

The 2010 American Joint Committee on Cancer guidelines recommended consideration of sentinel lymph node biopsy for thin melanoma (Breslow thickness <1.0 mm) with aggressive pathologic features such as ulceration and/or high mitotic rate. The therapeutic benefit of biopsy-based treatment remains controversial. The authors conducted a meta-analysis to estimate the risk and outcomes of sentinel lymph node positivity in thin melanoma, and examined established and potential novel predictors of positivity.

METHODS

Three databases were searched by two independent reviewers for sentinel lymph node positivity in patients with thin melanoma. Study heterogeneity, publication bias, and quality were assessed. Data collected included age, sex, Breslow thickness, mitotic rate, ulceration, regression, Clark level, tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes, and vertical growth phase. Positivity was estimated using a random effects model. Association of positivity and clinicopathologic features was investigated using meta-regression.

RESULTS

Ninety-three studies were identified representing 35,276 patients with thin melanoma who underwent sentinel lymph node biopsy. Of these patients, 952 had a positive sentinel lymph node biopsy, for an event rate of 5.1 percent (95 percent CI, 4.1 to 6.3 percent). Significant associations were identified between positivity and Breslow thickness greater than 0.75 mm but less than 1.0 mm, mitotic rate, ulceration, and Clark level greater than IV. Seven studies reported on vertical growth phase, which was strongly associated with positivity (OR, 4.3; 95 percent CI, 2.5 to 7.7).

CONCLUSIONS

To date, this is the largest meta-analysis to examine predictors of sentinel lymph node biopsy positivity in patients with thin melanoma. Vertical growth phase had a strong association with biopsy positivity, providing support for its inclusion in standardized pathologic reporting.

Update on eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer classification for cutaneous melanoma and overview of potential pitfalls in histological examination of staging parameters

Cutaneous melanoma causes most of the skin cancer deaths in the USA. Melanoma is the fifth most common cancer among men and the sixth most common cancer among women. The incidence of melanoma has risen sharply over the past three decades. In this review, which is informed by our extensive experience at a large cancer centre, we outline the key differences between the tumour, node and metastases staging criteria for cutaneous melanoma in the seventh and eighth editions of the AJCC Cancer Staging Manual We also offer advice on how to assess the histophenotypic parameters that are relevant for staging, with a special focus on avoiding potential pitfalls, and how to report all the prognostically and therapeutically relevant histophenotypic parameters. Correct assessment and reporting of these clinically relevant histophenotypic parameters is of outmost importance for practising pathologists because these parameters help treating clinicians select the most appropriate personalised treatment for patients in this era of promising targeted and immunotherapies.

Metastases risk in thin cutaneous melanoma: prognostic value of clinical-pathologic characteristics and mutation profile

Background

A high percentage of patients with thin melanoma (TM), defined as lesions with Breslow thickness ≤1 mm, presents excellent long-term survival, however, some patients develop metastases. Existing prognostic factors cannot reliably differentiate TM patients at risk for metastases.

Objective

We aimed at characterizing the clinical-pathologic and mutation profile of metastatic and not-metastatic TM in order to distinguish lesions at risk of metastases.

Methods

Clinical-pathologic characteristics were recorded for the TM cases analyzed. We used a Next Generation Sequencing (NGS) multi-gene panel to characterize TM for multiple somatic mutations.

Results

A statistically significant association emerged between the presence of metastases and Breslow thickness ≥0.6 mm (p=0.003). None of TM with lymph-node involvement had Breslow thickness <0.6 mm. Somatic mutations were identified in 19 of 21 TM analyzed (90.5%). No mutations were observed in two not-metastatic cases with the lowest Breslow thickness (≤0.4 mm), whereas mutations in more than one gene were detected in one metastatic case with the highest Breslow thickness (1.00 mm).

Conclusion

Our study indicates Breslow thickness ≥0.6 mm as a valid prognostic factor to distinguish TM at risk for metastases.

Hospital-Based Study of Compliance with NCCN Guidelines and Predictive Factors of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in the Setting of Thin Melanoma Using the National Cancer Database

Thin melanoma is the most common form of melanoma in the United States. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) has guidelines for sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) which recommend “discuss and consider” SLNB for invasion >0.75 mm and “discuss and offer” SLNB for invasion >0.75 mm with suspicious features. This study looked at compliance with NCCN guidelines and factors that are predictive of a positive SLNB. This is a retrospective study of patients diagnosed with thin melanoma 2012–2013 using the National Cancer Database. A total of 26,456 patients met study qualifications. Univariate analysis showed that 76 per cent of patients meeting criteria underwent SLNB. Patients recommended to “discuss and consider” received SLNB 53 per cent of the time and those not recommended for SLNB received SLNB 20 per cent of the time. On multivariate analysis, depth was not predictive for positive SLNB whereas mitoses and ulceration were. Other factors predictive of positive SLNB were nodular cell type, lymphovascular invasion, and Clark's level greater than or equal to IV. Patients with thin melanoma that meet NCCN guidelines for SLNB undergo this procedure in good compliance but those who do not meet criteria continue to receive SLNB. Positive predictive factors for positive SLNB include mitoses, ulceration, Clark's level, and primary site.

Mitotic rate is associated with positive lymph nodes in patients with thin melanomas

BACKGROUND

The American Joint Commission on Cancer will remove mitotic rate from its staging guidelines in 2018.

OBJECTIVE

Using a large nationally representative cohort, we examined the association between mitotic rate and lymph node positivity among thin melanomas.

METHODS

A total of 149,273 thin melanomas in the National Cancer Database were examined for their association of high-risk features of mitotic rate, ulceration, and Breslow depth with lymph node status.

RESULTS

Among 17,204 patients with thin melanomas with data on Breslow depth, ulceration, and mitotic rate who underwent a lymph node biopsy, there was a strong linear relationship between odds of having a positive lymph node and mitotic rate (R² = 0.96, P < .0001, β = 3.31). The odds of having a positive node increased by 19% with each 1-point increase in mitotic rate (odds ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-1.21). Cases with negative nodes had a mean mitotic rate of 1.54 plus or minus 2.07 mitoses/mm² compared with 3.30 plus or minus 3.54 mitoses/mm² for those with positive nodes (P < .0001).

LIMITATIONS

The data collected do not allow for survival analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Mitotic rate was strongly associated with the odds of having a positive lymph node and should continue to be reported on pathology reports.

Analysis of sentinel node positivity in primary cutaneous melanoma: an 8-year single institution experience

BACKGROUND

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is a standard method for determining the pathologic status of the regional lymph nodes.

AIMS

The aim of our study was to determine the incidence and clinicopathologic factors predictive of SLN positivity, and to evaluate the prognostic importance of SLNB in patients with cutaneous melanoma.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of all patients who underwent SLNB for primary melanoma at our institution from 2005 to 2012. Statistical analysis was performed using χ 2 and Fischer exact test.

RESULTS

In total, 318 patients underwent SLNB, of which 65 were for thin melanoma (≤1 mm). There were 36 positive SLNB, 278 negative SLNB and in four cases the SLN was not located. The incidence rate for SLNB was 11.3% overall and 1.5% in thin melanomas alone. Statistical analysis identified Breslow thickness >1 mm (P = 0.006), Clark level ≥ IV (P = 0.004) and age <75 years (P = 0.035) as the strongest predictors of SLN positivity. Our overall false negativity rate was 20% (9/45) with one case of false-negative SLNB in thin melanomas.

CONCLUSION

Breslow thickness of the primary tumour remains the strongest predictor of SLN positivity. Our findings point to a possible limited role for SLNB in thin melanoma due to its low positivity rate, associated false-negative rate and related morbidity.

Sentinel Node Biopsy for Thin Melanomas: Which Patients Should be Considered?

BACKGROUND

As the incidence of melanoma increases, thin melanomas are being diagnosed at an increasingly frequent rate. Currently available prognostic factors are limited in their ability to reliably discriminate which patients will manifest regional nodal metastasis and would be identified early through sentinel node biopsy.

METHODS

We summarized our experience with sentinel node biopsy for patients with cutaneous melanomas less than 1.00 mm in Breslow thickness, with evaluation of Clark level as a predictor of positive sentinel node metastasis.

RESULTS

Among the 409 patients identified, micrometastases were found in the sentinel node in 20 patients, for an overall incidence of nodal progression of 4.9%. A total of 252 (62%) were Clark level II or III (11 of whom had a positive sentinel node) and 157 (38%) were Clark level IV (9 of whom had a positive sentinel node). We reviewed the literature to identify reliable indicators that might be helpful in determining which patients with "thin melanomas" would be likely to manifest regional progression to warrant routinely undergoing a preoperative lymphoscintigraphy followed by a sentinel node biopsy.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on available data, patients with melanomas between 0.75 and 1.00 mm are appropriate candidates to be considered for sentinel node biopsy after discussing the likelihood of finding evidence of nodal progression, the risks of sentinel node biopsy (including the risk of a false-negative result), and the lack of proven survival benefit from any form of surgical nodal staging.

iDermatoPath - a novel software tool for mitosis detection in H&E-stained tissue sections of malignant melanoma

BACKGROUND

Malignant Melanoma (MM) is characterized by a growing incidence and a high malignant potential. Besides well-defined prognostic factors such as tumour thickness and ulceration, the Mitotic Rate (MR) was included in the AJCC recommendations for diagnosis and treatment of MM. In daily routine, the identification of a single mitosis can be difficult on haematoxylin and eosin slides alone. Several studies showed a big inter- and intra-individual variability in detecting the MR in MM even by very experienced investigators, thus raising the question for a computer-assisted method.

OBJECTIVE

The objective was to develop a software system for mitosis detection in MM on H&E slides based on machine learning for diagnostic support.

METHODS

We developed a computer-aided staging support system based on image analysis and machine learning on the basis of 59 MM specimens. Our approach automatically detects tumour regions, identifies mitotic nuclei and classifies them with respect to their diagnostic relevance. A convenient user interface enables the investigator to browse through the proposed mitoses for fast and efficient diagnosing.

RESULTS

A quantitative evaluation on manually labelled ground truth data revealed that the tumour region detection yields a medium spatial overlap index (dice coefficient) of 0.72. For the mitosis detection, we obtained high accuracies of above 83%.

CONCLUSION

On the technical side, the developed iDermatoPath software tool provides a novel approach for mitosis detection in MM, which can be further improved using more training data such as dermatopathologist annotations. On the practical side, a first evaluation of the clinical utility was positive, albeit this approach provides most benefit for difficult cases in a research setting. Assuming all slides to be digitally processed and reported in the near future, this method could become a helpful additional tool for the pathologist.

Melanin content in melanoma metastases affects the outcome of radiotherapy

Melanin possess radioprotective and scavenging properties, and its presence can affect the behavior of melanoma cells, its surrounding environment and susceptibility to the therapy, as showed in vitro experiments. To determine whether melanin presence in melanoma affects the efficiency of radiotherapy (RTH) we evaluated the survival time after RTH treatment in metastatic melanoma patients (n = 57). In another cohort of melanoma patients (n = 84), the relationship between melanin level and pT and pN status was determined. A significantly longer survival time was found in patients with amelanotic metastatic melanomas in comparison to the melanotic ones, who were treated with either RTH or chemotherapy (CHTH) and RTH. These differences were more significant in a group of melanoma patients treated only with RTH. A detailed analysis of primary melanomas revealed that melanin levels were significantly higher in melanoma cells invading reticular dermis than the papillary dermis. A significant reduction of melanin pigmentation in pT3 and pT4 melanomas in comparison to pT1 and T2 tumors was observed. However, melanin levels measured in pT3-pT4 melanomas developing metastases (pN1-3, pM1) were higher than in pN0 and pM0 cases. The presence of melanin in metastatic melanoma cells decreases the outcome of radiotherapy, and melanin synthesis is related to higher disease advancement. Based on our previous cell-based and clinical research and present research we also suggest that inhibition of melanogenesis can improve radiotherapy modalities. The mechanism of relationship between melanogenesis and efficacy of RTH requires additional studies, including larger melanoma patients population and orthotopic, imageable mouse models of metastatic melanoma.

The anatomy of the TNM for colon cancer

BACKGROUND

To visualize the anatomy as revealed by dendrograms of the tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for colon cancer and compare it with the Dukes' system.

METHODS

A hierarchical clustering algorithm generated tree-structured dendrograms that stratified patients according to survival only. The dendrograms were constructed with the same prognostic variables used for the TNM. Because combinations of prognostic factors were stratified only on survival, additional factors of any number and type could be integrated into the TNM without changing the TNM categories.

RESULTS

The algorithm provided a step-by-step visualization of the TNM and the Dukes' system for colon cancer. Dendrograms and associated 5-year survival rates were generated for the T category only, the N category only, the T, N combination, and combinations of the T, N, and M, and the T, N, M with histological grade. Dendrograms revealed visual differences between the structure of TNM and the Dukes' system of staging. Dendrograms also revealed how variations in prognostic factors changed survival. By cutting dendrograms along their dissimilarity axis, multiple prognostic subgroups could be created for colon cancer that may reflect outcomes that are more accurate to estimate.

CONCLUSIONS

Dendrograms provide a new way to view cancer patient staging. They reveal a visual step-by-step hierarchical relationship between survival rates and combinations of prognostic variables. The dendrograms also revealed fundamental differences between the TNM and the Dukes system of staging. By stratifying on survival only, additional factors including molecular factors can be added to the TNM, because it classifies patients according to survival rates only and not according to pre-set rules of prognostic factors and stage groups. The clinical implications of stratifying only survival are discussed.

Thin Melanoma with Nodal Involvement: Analysis of Demographic, Pathologic, and Treatment Factors with Regard to Prognosis

BACKGROUND

Although only a small proportion of thin melanomas result in lymph node metastasis, the abundance of these lesions results in a relatively large absolute number of patients with a diagnosis of nodal metastases, determined by either sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy or clinical nodal recurrence (CNR).

METHODS

Independent cohorts with thin melanoma and either SLN metastasis or CNR were identified at two melanoma referral centers. At both centers, SLN metastasis patients were included. At center 1, the CNR cohort included patients with initial negative clinical nodal evaluation followed by CNR. At center 2, the CNR cohort was restricted to those presenting in the era before the use of SLN biopsy. Uni- and multivariable analyses of melanoma-specific survival (MSS) were performed.

RESULTS

At center 1, 427 CNR patients were compared with 91 SLN+ patients. The 5- and 10-year survival rates in the SLN group were respectively 88 and 84 % compared with 72 and 49 % in the CNR group (p < 0.0001). The multivariate analysis showed age older than 50 years (hazard ratio [HR] 1.5; 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.2-1.9), present ulceration (HR 1.9; 95 % CI 1.2-2.9), unknown ulceration (HR 1.6; 95 % CI 1.3-2.1), truncal site (HR 1.6; 95 % CI 1.2-2.2), and CNR (HR 3.3; 95 % CI 1.8-6.0) to be associated significantly with decreased MSS (p < 0.01 for each). The center 2 cohort demonstrated remarkably similar findings, with a 5-year MSS of 88 % in the SLN (n = 29) group and 76 % in the CNR group (n = 39, p = 0.09).

CONCLUSION

Patients with nodal metastases from thin melanomas have a substantial risk of melanoma death. This risk is lower among patients whose disease is discovered by SLN biopsy rather than CNR.

Regression in thin melanoma is associated with nodal recurrence after a negative sentinel node biopsy

Prognostic markers for nodal metastasis in thin melanoma patients are debated. We present a single institution study looking at factors predictive of nodal disease in thin melanoma patients. Retrospective review from 1997 to 2012 identified 252 patients with thin melanoma (≤1 mm) who underwent a sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Node‐positive patients included positive SLNB patients and negative SLNB patients who developed a nodal recurrence (false‐negative SLNB). Clinicopathologic characteristics were correlated with nodal status and outcome. Median follow‐up was 45.5 months. Twelve of 252 patients (4.8%) were node‐positive including six positive SLNB (2.4%) and six false‐negative SLNB (2.4%) patients. No clinicopathologic factors were significantly correlated with nodal disease. For the six false‐negative SLNB patients, median time to nodal recurrence was 37.5 months. Regression was seen in only 16% of cases, but the rate increased to 60% for false‐negative SLNB cases. Both age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.01–1.17; P = 0.02) and regression (OR: 8.33, 95% CI: 1.34–52.63; P = 0.02) were significantly associated with nodal recurrence after a negative SLNB on univariable analysis. Nodal disease in thin melanoma patients was seen in 4.8% of cases. Although regression was not correlated with nodal metastasis, it was correlated with a false‐negative SLNB. Patients with thin melanoma and regression may need more intensive surveillance after a negative SLNB. Further study is needed to determine if the same immune mechanisms that result in regression in primary tumors also lead to regression in lymph nodes, which may decrease detection of melanoma nodal metastases.

Clinical and biological determinants of melanoma progression: Should all be considered for clinical management?

Cutaneous melanoma is a heterogeneous disease affecting the regulation of multiple genes and proteins that contribute to melanoma progression. Survival for patients with locally invasive disease varies greatly, even within tumour stages based on current prognostic criteria. This has prompted investigations into the value of additional clinical or biological parameters predicting survival. In particular, the improved knowledge of tumour biology has fed the hope that the outcome may be predicted at the molecular level. The prognostic value of numerous potential biomarkers has therefore been evaluated in protein and gene expression studies, and genomic associations with melanoma prognosis are beginning to emerge. These potential biomarkers interrogate key tumour and host processes important for tumour development and progression, such as proliferation, invasion and migration through epithelial mesenchymal transition or the host immune or vascular responses. This research may allow more individualised information on prognosis if the challenges regarding the quality and validation of studies are overcome.

Melanoma-specific mortality and competing mortality in patients with non-metastatic malignant melanoma: a population-based analysis

Background

The objectives of this study were to evaluate and model the probability of melanoma-specific death and competing causes of death for patients with melanoma by competing risk analysis, and to build competing risk nomograms to provide individualized and accurate predictive tools.

Methods

Melanoma data were obtained from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program. All patients diagnosed with primary non-metastatic melanoma during the years 2004–2007 were potentially eligible for inclusion. The cumulative incidence function (CIF) was used to describe the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality. We used Gray’s test to compare differences in CIF between groups. The proportional subdistribution hazard approach by Fine and Gray was used to model CIF. We built competing risk nomograms based on the models that we developed.

Results

The 5-year cumulative incidence of melanoma death was 7.1 %, and the cumulative incidence of other causes of death was 7.4 %. We identified that variables associated with an elevated probability of melanoma-specific mortality included older age, male sex, thick melanoma, ulcerated cancer, and positive lymph nodes. The nomograms were well calibrated. C-indexes were 0.85 and 0.83 for nomograms predicting the probability of melanoma mortality and competing risk mortality, which suggests good discriminative ability.

Conclusions

This large study cohort enabled us to build a reliable competing risk model and nomogram for predicting melanoma prognosis. Model performance proved to be good. This individualized predictive tool can be used in clinical practice to help treatment-related decision making.

Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in Thin Cutaneous Melanoma: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Most patients with melanoma have a thin (≤1.00 mm) lesion. There is uncertainty as to which patients with thin melanoma should undergo sentinel lymph node (SN) biopsy. We sought to quantify the proportion of SN metastases in patients with thin melanoma and to determine the pooled effect of high-risk features of the primary lesion on SN positivity.

METHODS

Published literature between 1980 and 2015 was searched and critically appraised. Primary outcome was the proportion of SN metastases in patients with thin cutaneous melanoma. Secondary outcomes included the effect of high-risk pathological features of the primary lesion on the proportion of SN metastases. Summary measures were estimated by Mantel-Haenszel method using random effects meta-analyses.

RESULTS

Sixty studies (10,928 patients) met the criteria for inclusion. Pooled SN positivity was 4.5 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 3.8-5.2 %]. Predictors of a positive SN were: thickness ≥0.75 mm [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 1.90 (95 % CI 1.08-3.34); with a likelihood of SN metastases of 8.8 % (95 % CI 6.4-11.2 %)]; Clark level IV/V [AOR 2.24 (95 % CI 1.23-4.08); with a likelihood of 7.3 % (95 % CI 6.2-8.4 %)]; ≥1 mitoses/mm² [AOR 6.64 (95 % CI 2.77-15.88); pooled likelihood 8.8 % (95 % CI 6.2-11.4 %)]; and the presence of microsatellites [unadjusted OR 6.94 (95 % CI 2.13-22.60); likelihood 26.6 % (95 % CI 4.3-48.9 %)].

CONCLUSIONS

The pooled proportion of SN metastases in thin melanoma is 4.5 %. Thickness ≥0.75 mm, Clark level IV/V, mitoses, and microsatellites significantly increased the odds of SN positivity and should prompt strong consideration of SN biopsy.

An algorithm for expanding the TNM staging system

AIM

We describe a new method to expand the tumor, lymph node, metastasis (TNM) staging system using a clustering algorithm. Cases of breast cancer were used for demonstration.

MATERIALS & METHODS

An unsupervised ensemble-learning algorithm was used to create dendrograms. Cutting the dendrograms produced prognostic systems.

RESULTS

Prognostic systems contained groups of patients with similar outcomes. The prognostic systems based on tumor size and lymph node status recapitulated the general structure of the TNM for breast cancer. The prognostic systems based on tumor size, lymph node status, histologic grade and estrogen receptor status revealed a more detailed stratification of patients when grade and estrogen receptor status were added.

CONCLUSION

Prognostic systems from cutting the dendrogram have the potential to improve and expand the TNM.

Principles of Melanoma Staging

Although now commonplace in contemporary cancer care, the systematic approach to classification of disease-specific cancers into a formalized staging system is a relatively modern concept. Overall, the goals of cancer staging are to characterize the status of cancer at a specific moment in time, risk stratify, facilitate prognostication, and inform clinical decision making. The revisions to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) melanoma staging system over time reflect changes in our understanding of the biology of the disease. Since the 1st edition, where tumor thickness was defined anatomically by its relationship to the reticular or papillary dermis (Clark level) as well as tumor thickness (Breslow thickness), there have been significant strides in our use of clinicopathological variables to stratify low- versus high-risk patients. Management of the regional nodal basin has also changed dramatically over time, impacted by techniques such as lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) and changes in pathological evaluation of the regional lymph nodes. Additionally, stratification of distant metastases has evolved as survival outcomes have been shown to vary based upon anatomic site of metastases and serum lactate dehydrogenase levels. The variables in use in the current (7th edition) AJCC staging system are surrogate markers of biology with validated impact of survival outcomes. Going forward, it is likely that these and additional clinicopathological factors will be integrated with molecular and other correlates of melanoma tumor biology to further refine and personalize melanoma staging.

Reporting Melanoma: A Nationwide Surveillance of State Cancer Registries

The goal of our study was to determine current melanoma reporting methods available to dermatologists and dermatopathologists and quantify changes in reporting methods from 2012 to 2014. A cross-sectional study design was utilized consisting of website perusal of reporting procedures, followed up by telephone and email inquiry of reporting methods from every state cancer registry. This study was conducted over a six-month period from February to August 2014. A previous similar survey was conducted in 2012 over the same time frame and results were compared. Kansas state cancer registry provided no data. As of August 2014, 96% of 49 state cancer registries had electronic methods available to all designated reporters. Seven (14%) states required an electronic-only method of reporting melanoma cases. Eighty-six percent allowed hard copy pathology report submission. Compared to the 2012 survey, 2 additional states were found to have initiated electronic reporting methods by 2014. In conclusion, a variety of methods exist for reporting diagnosed melanoma cases. Although most state cancer registries were equipped for electronic transmission of cases for mandated reporters, a number of states were ill-equipped for electronic submission from outpatient dermatologists. There was a general trend towards electronic versus nonelectronic reporting from 2012 to 2014.

Current staging and prognostic factors in melanoma

The current American Joint Commission for Cancer staging system for melanoma includes thickness, ulceration, and mitotic index as primary tumor factors for patients with stage I and II disease. Number and size of nodal metastases, presence of satellitosis and in-transit disease, and tumor ulceration status categorize patients with stage III disease. Presence and location of distant metastatic disease and increased lactate dehydrogenase level stratify prognosis in patients with stage IV disease. Factors predictive of sentinel lymph node positivity are also studied, particularly in patients with T1 melanomas, but are not always congruent with those predictive of survival.

Identification of Patients with Intermediate Thickness Melanoma at Low Risk for Sentinel Lymph Node Positivity

INTRODUCTION

Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy is recommended for all patients with intermediate-thickness melanomas. We sought to identify such patients at low risk of SLN positivity.

METHODS

All patients with intermediate-thickness melanomas (1.01-4 mm) undergoing SLN biopsy at a single institution from 1995-2011 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression determined factors associated with a low risk of SLN positivity. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to stratify groups based on risk of positivity.

RESULTS

Of the 952 study patients, 157 (16.5 %) had a positive SLN. In the multivariate analysis, thickness <1.5 mm (odds ratio [OR] 0.29), age ≥60 (OR 0.69), present tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (OR 0.60), absent lymphovascular invasion (OR 0.46), and absent satellitosis (OR 0.44) were significantly associated with a low risk of SLN positivity. CART analysis identified thickness of 1.5 mm as the primary cut point for risk of SLN metastasis. Patients with a thickness of <1.5 mm represented 36 % of the total cohort and had a SLN positivity rate of 6.6 % (95 % confidence interval 3.8-9.4 %). In patients with melanomas <1.5 mm in thickness, the presence of additional low risk factors identified 257 patients (75 % of patients with <1.5 mm melanomas) in which the rate of SLN positivity was <5 %.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a SLN positivity rate of 16.5 % overall, substantial heterogeneity of risk exists among patients with intermediate-thickness melanoma. Most patients with melanoma between 1.01 and 1.5 mm have a risk of SLN positivity similar to that in patients with thin melanomas.

Early-stage non-Spitzoid cutaneous melanoma in patients younger than 22 years of age at diagnosis: long-term follow-up and survival analysis

PURPOSE

We evaluated prognostic factors among young patients with early stage melanoma, with particular attention to survival, recurrence, and development of a second primary melanoma.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients (age <22 years) with pathologically confirmed in-situ and stage 1 non-Spitzoid melanoma treated at our institution from 1980-2010, assessing demographics, clinical presentation, treatment, disease-specific survival, recurrence-free survival, and probability of developing a second primary melanoma.

RESULTS

One hundred patients with in-situ melanoma (n=16) or stage 1A (n=48) or 1B (n=36) melanoma were identified. Median age was 19.4 years (range, 11.2-21.9), and median follow-up was 7.6 years (range, 0.1-31.7). Median tumor thickness was 0.76 mm (range, 0.23-2.0). No lesions were ulcerated. All patients underwent wide local excision with negative margins, and 21 had a concomitant negative sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). Sixteen patients developed recurrences, and 8 subsequently died of progressive melanoma. There were 2 non-melanoma-related deaths. Endpoints were 20-year overall survival (77.4%), melanoma-specific mortality (20.1%), recurrence rate (34.0%), and probability of developing a second primary melanoma (24.7%). Greater tumor depth and Clark level were associated with worse prognosis, but age, sex, and tumor mitotic rate were not correlated with recurrence or survival.

CONCLUSION

Among younger early-stage melanoma patients, greater lesion depth conferred higher recurrence risk and mortality. Our data did not define the role of sentinel lymph node biopsy in this group.

Identifying candidates with favorable prognosis following liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Data mining analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The optimal cutoff of each value in configuring selection criteria for pre-transplant assessment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains uncertain.

METHODS

To build a predictive model for recurrent HCC, we performed data mining analysis on patients who underwent LT for HCC at University Health Network (n = 246). The model was externally validated using a cohort from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR) database (n = 9,769).

RESULTS

Among 246 patients, 14.6% (n = 36) experienced recurrent HCC within 2.5 years post-LT. The risk prediction model for recurrent HCC identified two subgroups with low-risk (total tumor diameter [TTD] <4 cm and serum alpha-fetoprotein [AFP] <73 ng/ml, n = 135) and with high-risk (TTD >4 cm and/or AFP >73 ng/ml, n = 111). The reproducibility of the model was validated through the SRTR database; overall patient survival rate was significantly better in low-risk group than high-risk group (P < 0.0001). Using Cox regression model, this yardstick, not Milan criteria, was revealed to efficiently predict post-transplant survival independent of underlying characteristics (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Grouping LT candidates with pre-LT HCC by the cutoffs of TTD 4 cm and AFP 73 ng/ml which were unearthed by data mining analysis efficiently classify patients according by the post-transplant prognosis.

Comparative effectiveness in melanoma

The worldwide incidence of melanoma continues to rise. It is a leading cause of cancer death and the second leading cause of loss of productive years of life. Although the diagnosis of melanoma is straightforward, there remain many controversies regarding treatment and surveillance. This chapter addresses important questions in melanoma treatment such as sentinel lymph node biopsy, what to do with a positive sentinel lymph node, margins of resection for melanoma, radiation for primary, nodal and metastatic melanoma, and routine use imaging. Through this chapter, the evidence for these controversial subjects and the barriers to resolution will be elucidated.

Prognostic survival model for people diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma

BACKGROUND

The ability of medical practitioners to communicate risk estimates effectively to patients diagnosed with melanoma relies on accurate information about prognostic factors and their impact on survival. This study reports the development of one of the few melanoma prognostic models, called the Melanoma Severity Index (MSI), based on population-based cancer registry data.

METHODS

Data from the Queensland Cancer Registry for people (20-89 years) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma between 1995 and 2008 (n = 28,654; 1,700 melanoma deaths). Additional clinical information about metastasis, ulceration and positive lymph nodes was manually extracted from pathology forms. Flexible parametric survival models were combined with multivariable fractional polynomial for selecting variables and transformations of continuous variables. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate values.

RESULTS

The MSI contained the variables thickness (transformed, explained 40.6% of variation in survival), body site (additional 1.9% in variation), metastasis (1.8%), positive nodes (0.7%), ulceration (1.3%), age (1.1%). Royston and Sauerbrei's D statistic (measure of discrimination) was 1.50 (95% CI = 1.44, 1.56) and the corresponding RD2 (measure of explained variation) was 0.47 (0.45, 0.49), demonstrating strong explanatory performance. The Harrell-C statistic was 0.88 (0.88, 0.89). Lacking an external validation dataset, we applied internal-external cross validation to demonstrate the consistency of the prognostic information across geographically-defined subsets of the cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The MSI provides good ability to predict survival for melanoma patients. Beyond the immediate clinical use, the MSI may have important public health and research applications for evaluations of public health interventions aimed at reducing deaths from melanoma.

Prognostic factors in localized invasive primary cutaneous malignant melanoma: results of a large population-based study

BACKGROUND

The prognostic impact of several histopathological prognostic features in cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM) remains controversial.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the independent prognostic value of mitotic rate, regression, tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and growth phase in primary stage I and II CMMs.

METHODS

Clinicohistopathological data were obtained from the Stockholm-Gotland registry for 4237 patients diagnosed with an incident primary stage I or II CMM followed up to December 2011. The risk of CMM-specific death was evaluated by a Cox regression model.

RESULTS

A mitotic rate of 1-10 mitoses per mm(2) [hazard ratio (HR) 1·69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·16-2·45] and > 10 mitoses per mm(2) (HR 2·27, 95% CI 1·46-3·52) were significant; TILs and regression were not. A more detailed analysis of data assessed between 1989 and 1995 confirmed significantly increased HRs for the presence vs. absence of mitoses (HR1-5/mm² 2·25, 95% CI 1·36-3·76; HR6-10/mm² 2·34, 95% CI 1·23-4·44; HR> 10/mm² 2·64, 95% CI 1·39-4·99). Other prognosticators were increasing T-stage vs. T1, presence of ulceration and presence of vertical growth phase (VGP). In T1 CMMs, an increasing tumour thickness vs. < 0·7 mm (HR0·7-0·8 mm 2·24, 95% CI 1·24-4·04; HR>0·8 mm  2·92, 95% CI 1·57-5·43) and presence of ulceration were significantly associated with higher HRs; mitotic rate, TILs, regression and growth phase were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Determinants of increased risk of CMM death in stage I and II CMMs were increasing T-stage, presence of ulceration, presence of mitoses and VGP. This was not found for TILs or regression.

Follow-up in patients with low-risk cutaneous melanoma: is it worth it?

Follow-up examinations in melanoma aim to detect recurrences or secondary melanomas in an early phase of development. Follow-up guidelines that have been developed in many European countries, the USA and Australia show varying recommendations and are controversial, especially in patients with melanomas of 1.0 mm tumor thickness or less. This group contains 50-70% of all melanoma patients and the majority is unlikely to develop recurrences. On the other hand, within this entity, subgroups at higher risk for recurrences can be defined who require a more intense follow-up. This article discusses recommendations for the frequency, duration and costs of follow-up in low-risk melanoma patients. Patient preferences are addressed and a risk-adapted follow-up scheme is proposed.

A review of sentinel lymph node biopsy for thin melanoma

INTRODUCTION

Although there is a lack of established survival benefit of sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB), this technique has been increasingly applied in the staging of patients with thin (≤1.00 mm) melanoma (T1Nx), without clear supportive evidence.

METHODS

We review the guidelines and available literature on the indications and rationale for performing SLNB in thin melanoma.

RESULTS

As a consequence of the paucity of evidence of SLNB in thin melanoma, there is considerable variability in the guidelines. It is difficult to define clinicopathologic factors that reliably predict the presence of nodal metastasis. SLNB does not yet inform management in thin melanoma to improve survival outcome.

CONCLUSION

Based on available evidence, high risk patients with melanomas between 0.75 and 1.00 mm may be appropriate candidates to be considered for SLN biopsy after discussing the likelihood of finding evidence of nodal progression, the risks of sentinel node biopsy, and the lack of proven survival benefit from any form of surgical nodal staging.

Analysis of tumor mitotic rate in thin metastatic melanomas compared with thin melanomas without metastasis using both the hematoxylin and eosin and anti-phosphohistone 3 IHC stain

Studies have suggested that elevated tumor mitotic rate (MR) is linked to overall survival in thin melanoma. Recently, promising data regarding anti-phosphohistone 3 (pHH3) immunohistochemistry and its ability to aid in calculation of MR have emerged. The authors retrospectively analyzed original biopsies from 13 thin melanomas with positive sentinel node (SN) status and 16 thin melanomas with negative SN status. Both anti-pHH3 immunohistochemistry and the hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stain were used to evaluate MR by 2 dermatopathologists blinded to SN status using the "hot spot" method. Intraclass coefficient values were attained to measure interobserver concordance and reliability of the pHH3 stain. By generating a receiver operating characteristic curve and analyzing the overall area under the curve, pHH3 was found to have good interobserver reliability. The relationship between MR and SN involvement was also evaluated, but this correlation was not statistically significant.

Breslow thickness, clark index and ulceration are associated with sentinel lymph node metastasis in melanoma patients: a cohort analysis of 612 patients

BACKGROUND

Sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) is the most sensitive procedure for assessing nodal status in patients with primary melanoma.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the predictive ability of usual primary melanoma prognosis factors of detecting sentinel lymph node (SLN) metastasis in patients with melanoma.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A cohort of 612 consecutive patients presenting with primary skin melanoma who underwent a SLNB was evaluated. Assessment of the determinants of SLN metastasis was based on general linear model analysis. The model performance was studied using the concordance statistic and the net reclassification index. The calibration was estimated using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

RESULTS

The discrimination ability did not differ significantly between Breslow thickness (0.57), Clark index (0.61), ulceration (0.57) and histological subtype (0.55). Clark index, ulceration and Breslow thickness were all significant and independent determinants of SLN metastasis. The predictive ability of the final model was 0.657.

CONCLUSION

Breslow thickness, Clark index and ulceration are independent predictors of a SLN metastasis.