Projecting individualized probabilities of developing bladder cancer in white individuals

The best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) method as a tool to estimate the lifetime risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma in high-risk individuals with no known pathogenic germline variants

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in the Western world. The number of diagnosed cases and the mortality rate are almost equal as the majority of patients present with advanced disease at diagnosis. Between 4 and 10% of pancreatic cancer cases have an apparent hereditary background, known as hereditary pancreatic cancer (HPC) and familial pancreatic cancer (FPC), when the genetic basis is unknown. Surveillance of high-risk individuals (HRI) from these families by imaging aims to detect PDAC at an early stage to improve prognosis. However, the genetic basis is unknown in the majority of HRIs, with only around 10-13% of families carrying known pathogenic germline mutations. The aim of this study was to assess an individual's genetic cancer risk based on sex and personal and family history of cancer. The Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (BLUP) methodology was used to estimate an individual's predicted risk of developing cancer during their lifetime. The model uses different demographic factors in order to estimate heritability. A reliable estimation of heritability for pancreatic cancer of 0.27 on the liability scale, and 0.07 at the observed data scale as obtained, which is different from zero, indicating a polygenic inheritance pattern of PDAC. BLUP was able to correctly discriminate PDAC cases from healthy individuals and those with other cancer types. Thus, providing an additional tool to assess PDAC risk HRI with an assumed genetic predisposition in the absence of known pathogenic germline mutations.

Occupational arsenic exposure and genitourinary cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Existing evidence suggests that ingestion of high doses of arsenic through drinking water is associated with an increased risk of genitourinary cancers, while systematic evidence on workers exposed to arsenic is lacking.

AIMS

The aim of this study is to systematically review the evidence on the association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancer risk and mortality.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was carried out on Pubmed, Web of Science and Embase by including cohort and case-control studies. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using Mandel-Paule random-effects model. Contour-enhanced funnel plot and Egger's test were used to assess the occurrence of publication bias.

RESULTS

A total of 17 studies were included in the meta-analysis, 7 on cancer incidence (n = 161,244 individuals) and 10 on cancer mortality (n = 91,868). Most of them were cohort (71%) and industry-based studies (59%). The meta-analysis failed to detect an increased risk of genitourinary cancers among workers exposed to arsenic, except for a suggestive but not significant positive association for bladder cancer incidence (RR: 1.26, 95% CI: 0.89, 1.80), although this estimate was based on only three studies. No compelling evidence of publication bias was found (P = 0.885).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings did not show an association between occupational exposure to arsenic and genitourinary cancers, although further high-quality studies with detailed exposure assessment at the individual level are needed to clarify this relationship.

Bladder cancer screening: The new selection and prediction model

The objective of this study was to offer new approach for selection of persons with asymptomatic bladder cancer (BC) and highly risky persons for the BC occurrence. Also, it is a part of the BC screening protocol (study is ongoing). Study populations were 100 newly diagnosed (diagnosis maximum 1-year old) males with BC and 100 matched (by sex and age ±5 years) controls (not oncology patients from the same hospital). A hospital based, matched case-control study was done. Statistical analysis comprised of four steps: t-test, univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and scoring. The fifth step comprised of two changes, deleting one variable and addition of another variable. Six variables were statistically significant: Caucasian men over 45 years age, tobacco smoking over 40 pack-years, occupational and/or environmental exposure to the proved BC carcinogens over 20 years, macrohematuria, difficulty urinating, BC in relatives up to fourth degree of kinships, and they were used for an easy and fast selection of the individuals with high risk for BC occurrence and BC asymptomatic patients (optimal selection at the population level). The final results showed highly significant probability (p < 0.001), with area under ROC curve of 0.913, negative predictive values of 89.7% (95% CI 10.3-100%), and a specificity of 78%. Positive predictive value was 80.5% (95% CI 19.5-100%) and a sensitivity of 91%. It is possible to recruit asymptomatic BC patients (primary prevention) by using this model, as well as persons with high risk for BC occurrence (primordial prevention). This study is the first part of the BC screening protocol and the second part of the BC screening protocol study is ongoing (urine analysis).

Associations of genetically predicted circulating insulin-like growth factor-1 and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-3 with bladder cancer risk

Insulin-like growth factors (IGF) play important roles in carcinogenesis. The associations of circulating IGF-1 and insulin-like growth factor-binding protein-3 (IGFBP-3) with the risks of bladder cancer remain unclear. In this large case control study of 2011 bladder cancer cases and 2369 heathy controls, we assessed the associations of circulating IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 with bladder cancer risks using a Mendelian randomization approach, which uses genetic variants as instruments to study causal relationship between risk factors and diseases. We first constructed a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) predictive of circulating IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 using 413 genome-wide association study-identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with IGF-1 and four SNPs with IGFBP-3, respectively. We found that higher GRS for IGF-1 was associated with a significantly reduced bladder cancer risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.66 per SD increase, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-0.82, p < 0.001). We then used a summary statistics-based MR method, inverse-variance weighting (IVW), and found a similar risk estimate (OR = 0.67 per SD increase, 95% CI = 0.54-0.83, p < 0.001). When we categorized individuals into high and low IGF-1 groups using the median GRS value in the controls, the high GRS group had a 21% reduced bladder cancer risk (OR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.70-0.89) compared to the low GRS group. Genetically predicted circulating IGFBP-3 was not associated with bladder cancer risk. In conclusion, our data demonstrated for the first time a strong inverse relationship between circulating IGF-1 level and bladder cancer risk.

Evidence-based diagnostic accuracy measurement in urine cytology using likelihood ratios

INTRODUCTION

Recent cytology classification systems have become more evidence-based and advocate for the use of risk of malignancy (ROM) as a measure of test performance. From the statistical viewpoint, ROM represents the post-test probability of malignancy, which changes with the test result and also with the prevalence of malignancies (or pre-test probability) in each individual practice setting and individual patient presentation. Evidence-based medicine offers likelihood ratios (LRs) as a measure of diagnostic accuracy for multilevel diagnostic tests, superior to sensitivity and specificity as data binarization and information loss are avoided. LRs are used in clinical medicine and could be successfully applied to the practice of cytopathology. Our aim was to establish LRs to compare diagnostic accuracy of The Paris System for Reporting Urinary Cytology (TPS) and of a historic urine cytology reporting system.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We analyzed sequential voided urine cytology cases with histologic outcomes: 188 pre-TPS and 167 post-TPS. LRs were calculated as LR = True positive % (per category)/False positive % (per category) [95% confidence interval] and interpreted LRs = 1 nondiagnostic, LR >1 favor, LR >10 strongly favor, LRs <1 favor exclusion, and LR <0.1 strongly favor exclusion of a target condition, respectively. CATmaker open source software and Fagan nomograms were used for calculation and visualization of the corresponding post-test probability (ROM) of high-grade urothelial carcinoma (HGUC) in various scenarios.

RESULTS

Both reporting systems show near-similar performance in terms of LRs, with moderate discriminatory power of negative, suspicious, and positive for HGUC test results. The atypical urothelial cell (AUC) category establishes as indiscriminate LR = 1 in the TPS, whereas in pre-TPS it favored a benign condition. We further demonstrate the utility of LRs to determine individual post-test probability (ROM) in a variety of clinical scenarios in a personalized fashion.

CONCLUSIONS

The LRs allow for a quantitative performance measure in case of urine cytology across different scenarios adding numeric information on diagnostic test accuracy and post-test probability of HGUC. The diagnostic accuracy of pre-TPS and post-TPS remained similar for all but the AUC category. With the TPS, the AUC category has become genuinely diagnostically and statistically indeterminate and requires further patient investigations.

Epidemiologic Risk Factors in a Comparison of a Barrett Esophagus Registry (BarrettNET) and a Case-Control Population in Germany

Endoscopic screening for Barrett's esophagus as the major precursor lesion for esophageal adenocarcinoma is mostly offered to patients with symptoms of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). However, other epidemiologic risk factors might affect the development of Barrett's esophagus and esophageal adenocarcinoma. Therefore, efforts to improve the efficiency of screening to find the Barrett's esophagus population "at risk" compared with the normal population are needed. In a cross-sectional analysis, we compared 587 patients with Barrett's esophagus from the multicenter German BarrettNET registry to 1976 healthy subjects from the population-based German KORA cohort, with and without GERD symptoms. Data on demographic and lifestyle factors, including age, gender, smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index, physical activity, and symptoms were collected in a standardized epidemiologic survey. Increased age, male gender, smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, low physical activity, low health status, and GERD symptoms were significantly associated with Barrett's esophagus. Surprisingly, among patients stratified for GERD symptoms, these associations did not change. Demographic, lifestyle, and clinical factors as well as GERD symptoms were associated with Barrett's esophagus development in Germany, suggesting that a combination of risk factors could be useful in developing individualized screening efforts for patients with Barrett's esophagus and GERD in Germany.

Development and validation of a haematuria cancer risk score to identify patients at risk of harbouring cancer

BACKGROUND

A lack of consensus exists amongst national guidelines regarding who should be investigated for haematuria. Type of haematuria and age-specific thresholds are frequently used to guide referral for the investigation of haematuria.

OBJECTIVES

To develop and externally validate the haematuria cancer risk score (HCRS) to improve patient selection for the investigation of haematuria.

METHODS

Development cohort comprise of 3539 prospectively recruited patients recruited at 40 UK hospitals (DETECT 1; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02676180) and validation cohort comprise of 656 Swiss patients. All patients were aged >18 years and referred to hospital for the evaluation of visible and nonvisible haematuria. Sensitivity and specificity of the HCRS in the validation cohort were derived from a cut-off identified from the discovery cohort.

RESULTS

Patient age, gender, type of haematuria and smoking history were used to develop the HCRS. HCRS validation achieves good discrimination (AUC 0.835; 95% CI: 0.789-0.880) and calibration (calibration slope = 1.215) with no significant overfitting (P = 0.151). The HCRS detected 11.4% (n = 8) more cancers which would be missed by UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence guidelines. The American Urological Association guidelines would identify all cancers with a specificity of 12.6% compared to 30.5% achieved by the HCRS. All patients with upper tract cancers would have been identified.

CONCLUSION

The HCRS offers good discriminatory accuracy which is superior to existing guidelines. The simplicity of the model would facilitate adoption and improve patient and physician decision-making.

Development and Validation of Lifestyle-Based Models to Predict Incidence of the Most Common Potentially Preventable Cancers

BACKGROUND

Most risk models for cancer are either specific to individual cancers or include complex or predominantly non-modifiable risk factors.

METHODS

We developed lifestyle-based models for the five cancers for which the most cases are potentially preventable through lifestyle change in the UK (lung, colorectal, bladder, kidney, and esophageal for men and breast, lung, colorectal, endometrial, and kidney for women). We selected lifestyle risk factors from the European Code against Cancer and obtained estimates of relative risks from meta-analyses of observational studies. We used mean values for risk factors from nationally representative samples and mean 10-year estimated absolute risks from routinely available sources. We then assessed the performance of the models in 23,768 participants in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort who had no history of the five selected cancers at baseline.

RESULTS

In men, the combined risk model showed good discrimination [AUC, 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.69-0.73] and calibration. Discrimination was lower in women (AUC, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.57-0.61), but calibration was good. In both sexes, the individual models for lung cancer had the highest AUCs (0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85 for men and 0.82; 95% CI, 0.76-0.87 for women). The lowest AUCs were for breast cancer in women and kidney cancer in men.

CONCLUSIONS

The discrimination and calibration of the models are both reasonable, with the discrimination for individual cancers comparable or better than many other published risk models.

IMPACT

These models could be used to demonstrate the potential impact of lifestyle change on risk of cancer to promote behavior change.

Epidemiology, prevention, screening, diagnosis, and evaluation: update of the ICUD-SIU joint consultation on bladder cancer

PURPOSE

To update current recommendations on prevention, screening, diagnosis, and evaluation of bladder cancer (BC) based on a thorough assessment of the most recent literature on these topics.

METHODS

A non-systematic review was performed, including articles until June 2017. A variety of original articles, reviews, and editorials were selected according to their epidemiologic, demographic, and clinical relevance. Assessment of the level of evidence and grade of recommendations was performed according to the International Consultation on Urological Diseases grading system.

RESULTS

BC is the ninth most common cancer worldwide with 430,000 new cases in 2012. Currently, approximately 165,000 people die from the disease annually. Absolute incidence and prevalence of BC are expected to rise significantly during the next decades because of population ageing. Tobacco smoking is still the main risk factor, accounting for about 50% of cases. Smoking cessation is, therefore, the most relevant recommendation in terms of prevention, as the risk of developing BC drops almost 40% within 5 years of cessation. BC screening is not recommended for the general population. BC diagnosis remains mainly based on cystoscopy, but development of new endoscopic and imaging technologies may rapidly change the diagnosis algorithm. The same applies for local, regional, and distant staging modalities.

CONCLUSIONS

A thorough understanding of epidemiology, risk factors, early detection strategies, diagnosis, and evaluation is essential for correct, evidence-based management of BC patients. Recent developments in endoscopic techniques and imaging raise the hope for providing better risk-adopted approaches and thereby improving clinical outcomes.

Genetic aberrations of the K-ras proto-oncogene in bladder cancer in relation to pesticide exposure

In Egypt, bladder cancer is one of the most popular cancers, accounting for 31% of all cancer cases. It ranks first in males about 16.2% of male cancer. The incidence in rural areas among males is near 32 per 100,000. The exact etiology of bladder cancer is still unknown; K-ras gene is known as a critical DNA target for chemical carcinogens such as pesticide. Some occupational hazard exposure is thought to be directly genotoxic, while others might enhance the mutagenicity and carcinogenicity of directly acting genotoxic agents. Analysis of the relationship between pesticide exposure and mutation in the K-ras gene in human bladder cancer. One hundred patients were diagnosed with bladder cancer and two hundred controls attended the outpatient clinic; after taking consent and filling a questionnaire for age, sex, occupation and pesticide exposure, surgically resected specimens were collected and the samples were used to determine the k-ras mutation. Blood samples were taken to analyze the level of acetylcholinesterase enzyme and level of P₅₃. The present study indicated that pesticide exposure may play a great role in malignant transformation of the bladder cells through mutation in the K-ras gene; there was a significant correlation between the acetylcholinesterase enzyme level and k-ras mutation (p < 0.001). The results revealed that the level of P₅₃ was significantly high in comparison with the control group (p < 0.001). These findings give an alarm to decrease the amount of pesticides used in our area; also, p₅₃ may be used as an indicator to bladder cancer.

Review of refractory ceramic fiber (RCF) toxicity, epidemiology and occupational exposure

This literature review on refractory ceramic fibers (RCF) summarizes relevant information on manufacturing, processing, applications, occupational exposure, toxicology and epidemiology studies. Rodent toxicology studies conducted in the 1980s showed that RCF caused fibrosis, lung cancer and mesothelioma. Interpretation of these studies was difficult for various reasons (e.g. overload in chronic inhalation bioassays), but spurred the development of a comprehensive product stewardship program under EPA and later OSHA oversight. Epidemiology studies (both morbidity and mortality) were undertaken to learn more about possible health effects resulting from occupational exposure. No chronic animal bioassay studies on RCF have been conducted since the 1980s. The results of the ongoing epidemiology studies confirm that occupational exposure to RCF is associated with the development of pleural plaques and minor decrements in lung function, but no interstitial fibrosis or incremental lung cancer. Evidence supporting a finding that urinary tumors are associated with RCF exposure remains, but is weaker. One reported, but unconfirmed, mesothelioma was found in an individual with prior occupational asbestos exposure. An elevated SMR for leukemia was found, but was absent in the highly exposed group and has not been observed in studies of other mineral fibers. The industry will continue the product stewardship program including the mortality study.

Review of the Clinical Approaches to the Use of Urine-based Tumor Markers in Bladder Cancer

Bladder cancer is a common disease with a stable incidence for the past few decades despite advancements in molecular and genetic determinants of cancer development and progression. Cystoscopy remains the standard for detection and surveillance of bladder cancer, but it is an invasive and potentially costly procedure. With the knowledge of molecular alterations associated with bladder cancer numerous urine-based tumor markers have become commercially available. These urine markers have been evaluated in all clinical scenarios for the detection of bladder cancer including screening, hematuria, atypical cytology evaluation, and surveillance, but given the relative lack of impactful trials they are not routinely utilized. The efforts to develop markers with increased sensitivity to replace cystoscopy for the detection of bladder cancer have thus far been unsuccessful as well. This review addresses role of urine markers for screening, detection, and surveillance of bladder cancer.

Common, germline genetic variations in the novel tumor suppressor BAP1 and risk of developing different types of cancer

BRCA1 associated protein-1 (BAP1) is a novel tumor suppressor that has recently been shown to be somatically mutated in several cancers. The BAP1 gene also carries rare germline mutations in families with a high incidence of several types of cancers, such as mesothelioma, uveal melanoma, lung adenocarcinoma, melanocytic neoplasms, and renal cell carcinoma. To test the hypothesis that common, germline genetic variants in BAP1 may also contribute to the risk of developing different types of cancer, we genotyped germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for BAP1 in a large population of patients with cancer, including 2,340 with colorectal cancer, 1,436 with bladder cancer, 3,313 with lung cancer, 1,325 with renal cell carcinoma, and 1,162 with esophageal cancer. We identified significant association of rs11708581 (P = 0.0034) and rs390802 (P = 0.015) with risk of renal cell carcinoma and rs12163565 (P = 0.038) with risk of lung cancer. Expression quantitative trait loci analysis in renal cell carcinoma using publicly available data from TCGA showed that the proxy SNPs for rs11708581 and rs390802 were negatively associated with the expression level of BAP1. Our study indicate that common germline genetic variants of BAP1 play a role in mediating the risk of developing renal cell carcinoma and lung cancer.

The more from East-Asian, the better: risk prediction of colorectal cancer risk by GWAS-identified SNPs among Japanese

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the difference of genetic predisposition for CRC between ethnicities; however, many genetic traits common to colorectal cancer have been identified. This study investigated whether more SNPs identified in GWAS in East Asian population could improve the risk prediction of Japanese and explored possible application of genetic risk groups as an instrument of the risk communication.

METHODS

558 Patients histologically verified colorectal cancer and 1116 first-visit outpatients were included for derivation study, and 547 cases and 547 controls were for replication study. Among each population, we evaluated prediction models for the risk of CRC that combined the genetic risk group based on SNPs from GWASs in European-population and a similarly developed model adding SNPs from GWASs in East Asian-population. We examined whether adding East Asian-specific SNPs would improve the discrimination.

RESULTS

Six SNPs (rs6983267, rs4779584, rs4444235, rs9929218, rs10936599, rs16969681) from 23 SNPs by European-based GWAS and five SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279) among ten SNPs by Asian-based GWAS were selected in CRC risk prediction model. Compared with a 6-SNP-based model, an 11-SNP model including Asian GWAS-SNPs showed improved discrimination capacity in Receiver operator characteristic analysis. A model with 11 SNPs resulted in statistically significant improvement in both derivation (P = 0.0039) and replication studies (P = 0.0018) compared with six SNP model. We estimated cumulative risk of CRC by using genetic risk group based on 11 SNPs and found that the cumulative risk at age 80 is approximately 13% in the high-risk group while 6% in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSION

We constructed a more efficient CRC risk prediction model with 11 SNPs including newly identified East Asian-based GWAS SNPs (rs704017, rs11196172, rs10774214, rs647161, rs2423279). Risk grouping based on 11 SNPs depicted lifetime difference of CRC risk. This might be useful for effective individualized prevention for East Asian.

Evaluation of microscopic hematuria: a critical review and proposed algorithm

Microscopic hematuria (MH), often discovered incidentally, has many causes, including benign processes, kidney disease, and genitourinary malignancy. The clinician, therefore, must decide how intensively to investigate the source of MH and select which tests to order and referrals to make, aiming not to overlook serious conditions while simultaneously avoiding unnecessary tests. Existing professional guidelines for the evaluation of MH are largely based on expert opinion and have weak evidence bases. Existing data demonstrate associations between isolated MH and various diseases in certain populations, and these associations serve as the basis for our proposed approach to the evaluation of MH. Various areas of ongoing uncertainty regarding the appropriate evaluation should be the basis for ongoing research.

Genetic variations in base excision repair pathway and risk of bladder cancer: a case-control study in the United States

Base excision repair (BER) is one of the major cellular DNA repair pathways that repairs small isolated foci of DNA damage including reduced or oxidized single bases or fragments and small, non-bulky adducts. Genetic variations in BER genes may affect DNA repair capacity and increase susceptibility to bladder cancer. In a case-control study of 801 bladder cancer patients and 801 matched controls, we evaluated the associations of 167 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 19 genes of the BER pathway with the risk of bladder cancer. In individual SNP analysis, 13 SNPs in 10 BER pathway genes were significantly associated with bladder cancer risk. The most significant SNP was rs2029167 in the SMUG1 gene. The homozygous variant GG genotype was associated with a 1.42-fold increased risk of bladder cancer (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.82, P=0.005). Cumulative effect analysis showed joint effects of increased risk of bladder cancer with increasing number of unfavorable genotypes in patients. Classification and regression tree analysis further revealed high-order gene-gene interactions and categorized the study subjects into low-, medium-low-, medium-high-, and high-risk groups. Compared with the low-risk group, the odds ratio for medium-low-, medium-high-, and high-risk group was 1.83 (95% CI: 1.23-2.72), 2.61 (95% CI: 1.79-3.80), and 3.05 (95% CI: 2.08-4.46), respectively (P for trend<0.001). Our results suggest that genetic variations in BER pathway genes modulate the risk of bladder cancer individually and jointly.

Depressive symptoms and short telomere length are associated with increased mortality in bladder cancer patients

BACKGROUND

Depression is associated with an increased risk of mortality in patients with cancer; it has been hypothesized that depression-associated alterations in cell aging mechanisms, in particular, the telomere/telomerase maintenance system, may underlie this increased risk. We evaluated the association of depressive symptoms and telomere length to mortality and recurrence/progression in 464 patients with bladder cancer.

METHODS

We used the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorder (SCID) to assess current depressive symptoms and lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD), respectively, and telomere length was assessed from peripheral blood lymphocytes. Multivariate Cox regression was used to assess the association of depression and telomere length to outcomes and the joint effect of both. Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests were used to compare survival time of subgroups by depression variables and telomere length.

RESULTS

Patients with depressive symptoms (CES-D ≥ 16) had a 1.83-fold [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08-3.08; P = 0.024] increased risk of mortality compared with patients without depressive symptoms (CES-D < 16) and shorter disease-free survival time (P = 0.004). Patients with both depressive symptoms and lifetime history of MDD were at 4.88-fold (95% CI, 1.40-16.99; P = 0.013) increased risk compared with patients with neither condition. Compared to patients without depressive symptoms and long telomere length, patients with depressive symptoms and short telomeres exhibited a 4-fold increased risk of mortality (HR, 3.96; 95% CI, 1.86-8.41; P = 0.0003) and significantly shorter disease-free survival time (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Short telomere length and depressive symptoms are associated with bladder cancer mortality individually and jointly.

IMPACT

Further investigation of interventions that impact depression and telomere length may be warranted in patients with cancer.

Diagnosis and staging of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer (BCa) is a heterogeneous disease with a variable natural history. Most patients (70%) present with superficial tumors (stages Ta, T1, or carcinoma in situ). However, 3 out of 10 patients present with muscle-invasive disease (T2-4) with a high risk of death from distant metastases. Moreover, roughly between 50% and 70% of superficial tumors do recur, and approximately 10% to 20% of them progress to muscle-invasive disease. However, BCa has a relatively low ratio of mortality versus incidence of new cases. In consequence, there is the danger of overdiagnosis and overtreatment.

A review of cancer risk prediction models with genetic variants

Cancer risk prediction models are important in identifying individuals at high risk of developing cancer, which could result in targeted screening and interventions to maximize the treatment benefit and minimize the burden of cancer. The cancer-associated genetic variants identified in genome-wide or candidate gene association studies have been shown to collectively enhance cancer risk prediction, improve our understanding of carcinogenesis, and possibly result in the development of targeted treatments for patients. In this article, we review the cancer risk prediction models that have been developed for popular cancers and assess their applicability, strengths, and weaknesses. We also discuss the factors to be considered for future development and improvement of models for cancer risk prediction.

Cadmium as a possible cause of bladder cancer: a review of accumulated evidence

Bladder cancer is a significant disease, the rates of which have increased over the few last years. However, its etiology remains as yet undefined. Cadmium, a widespread environmental carcinogen that has received considerable interest, presents evidence as a possible cause of bladder cancer. A literature review was conducted from the years 1984-2013 to study the accumulated evidence for cadmium as a possible cause of bladder cancer, including routes of cadmium exposure, accumulation, toxicity, carcinogenicity, and evidence from epidemiological and experimental studies. Special reference is devoted to cadmium nephrotoxicity, which illustrates how cadmium exerts its effects on the transitional epithelium of the urinary tract. Mechanisms of carcinogenesis are discussed. The effects of cadmium on gene expression in urothelial cells exposed to cadmium are also addressed. Despite different methodologies, several epidemiologic and nephrotoxicity studies of cadmium indicate that occupational exposure to cadmium is associated with increased risk of bladder cancer and provide additional evidence that cadmium is a potential toxic element in urothelial cells. In vitro studies provide further evidence that cadmium is involved in urothelial carcinogenesis. Animal studies encounter several problems such as morphology differences between species. Among the complex mechanisms of cadmium carcinogenesis, gene expression deregulation is the subject of recent studies on bladder cadmium-induced carcinogenesis. Further research, however, will be required to promise a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying cadmium carcinogenesis and to establish the precise role of cadmium in this important malignancy.

Whole genome prediction of bladder cancer risk with the Bayesian LASSO

To build a predictive model for urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) risk combining both genomic and nongenomic data, 1,127 cases and 1,090 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer/EPICURO study were genotyped using the HumanHap 1M SNP array. After quality control filters, genotypes from 475,290 variants were available. Nongenomic information comprised age, gender, region, and smoking status. Three Bayesian threshold models were implemented including: (1) only genomic information, (2) only nongenomic data, and (3) both sources of information. The three models were applied to the whole population, to only nonsmokers, to male smokers, and to extreme phenotypes to potentiate the UCB genetic component. The area under the ROC curve allowed evaluating the predictive ability of each model in a 10-fold cross-validation scenario. Smoking status showed the highest predictive ability of UCB risk (AUCtest = 0.62). On the other hand, the AUC of all genetic variants was poorer (0.53). When the extreme phenotype approach was applied, the predictive ability of the genomic model improved 15%. This study represents a first attempt to build a predictive model for UCB risk combining both genomic and nongenomic data and applying state-of-the-art statistical approaches. However, the lack of genetic relatedness among individuals, the complexity of UCB etiology, as well as a relatively small statistical power, may explain the low predictive ability for UCB risk. The study confirms the difficulty of predicting complex diseases using genetic data, and suggests the limited translational potential of findings from this type of data into public health interventions.

Development and validation of risk models and molecular diagnostics to permit personalized management of cancer

Despite the advances made in cancer management over the past few decades, improvements in cancer diagnosis and prognosis are still poor, highlighting the need for individualized strategies. Toward this goal, risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools have been developed, tailoring each step of risk assessment from diagnosis to treatment and clinical outcomes based on the individual's clinical, epidemiological, and molecular profiles. These approaches hold increasing promise for delivering a new paradigm to maximize the efficiency of cancer surveillance and efficacy of treatment. However, they require stringent study design, methodology development, comprehensive assessment of biomarkers and risk factors, and extensive validation to ensure their overall usefulness for clinical translation. In the current study, the authors conducted a systematic review using breast cancer as an example and provide general guidelines for risk prediction models and molecular diagnostic tools, including development, assessment, and validation.

γ-H2AX level in peripheral blood lymphocytes as a risk predictor for bladder cancer

Identification of susceptibility to double-strand breaks (DSBs) may provide valuable information about individual bladder cancer (BC) risk. The formation of γ-H2AX foci is a highly sensitive marker for DNA DSBs induction. We assessed whether levels of γ-H2AX in peripheral blood lymphocytes (PBL) obtained after stimulation by ionizing radiation (IR) are able to predict BC risk. Patients were enrolled from an ongoing BC case-control study. Baseline- and IR-induced H2AX phosphorylation was assessed in PBL from 174 newly diagnosed and untreated BC patients and from 174 matched control subjects by a novel, image-based, high-throughput phenotypic assay. The ratio of γ-H2AX level of IR-treated cells to that of non-treated cells (baseline) was used as the parameter to assess the sensitivity to the mutagen. The mean γ-H2AX ratios were significantly higher for cases than for controls (1.43±0.14 versus 1.35±0.12; P = 8.45×10(-8)). This trend was irrespective of age, sex and smoking status. The risk estimates of BC for induced DSBs by tertile distributions in controls showed also a significant trend for increased risk at the highest tertile for the whole cohort (odds ratio = 5.16; 95% confidence interval = 2.69, 9.89; P = 7.78 × 10(-7)) as well as for each category. Our findings suggest that a higher susceptibility to induction of DSBs as measured by the γ-H2AX assay is significantly associated with an increased risk for BC. This might help to identify individuals at high risk for this cancer, adding new perspectives to established epidemiological and genetic risk factors. Further research of the role of γ-H2AX in biological processes of BC is warranted.

Fluid intake, genetic variants of UDP-glucuronosyltransferases, and bladder cancer risk

Background:

Results of studies of fluid consumption and its association with bladder cancer have been inconsistent. Few studies have considered modification effects from genetic variants that may interact with the type of consumed fluids. UDP-glucuronosyltransferases (UGTs), which are membrane-bound conjugating enzymes, catalyse the transformation of hydrophobic substrates to more water-soluble glucuronides to facilitate renal or biliary excretion. Whether genetic variants in UGTs could modulate the association between fluid intake and bladder cancer has not been studied.

Methods:

We conducted a case–control study with 1007 patients with histopathologically confirmed bladder cancer and 1299 healthy matched controls. Fluid intake and epidemiologic data were collected via in-person interview. Multivariate unconditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and the 95% confidence intervals (95% CI).

Results:

After adjustment for potential confounders, high quantity of total fluid intake (⩾2789 vs <1696 ml per day) conferred a 41% increased risk of bladder cancer (OR=1.41; 95% CI=1.10–1.81). Specific fluids such as regular soft drinks and decaffeinated coffee were also associated with increased risks, whereas tea, wine, and liquor were associated with decreased risks. Among 83 single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the UGT gene family, 18 were significantly associated with bladder cancer risk. The most significant one was rs7571337, with the variant genotype conferring a 29% reduction in risk (OR=0.71; 95% CI=0.56–0.90).

Conclusions:

Total and specific fluid intakes are associated with bladder cancer risk in the study population and that genetic variants of UGT genes could modulate the effects. These results facilitate identification of high-risk individuals and have important implications in bladder cancer prevention.

Polymorphisms in the XRCC1 gene modify survival of bladder cancer patients treated with chemotherapy

Survival of bladder cancer patients depends on several factors including disease stage and grade at diagnosis, age, health status of the patient and the applied treatment. Several studies investigated the role of DNA repair genetic variants in cancer susceptibility, but only few studies investigated their role in survival and response to chemotherapy for bladder cancer. We genotyped 28 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in DNA repair genes in 456 bladder cancer patients, reconstructed haplotypes and calculated a score for combinations of the SNPs. We estimated Hazard Ratios (adjHR) for time to death. Among patients treated with chemotherapy, variant alleles of five SNPs in the XRCC1 gene conferred better survival (rs915927 adjHR 0.55 (95%CI 0.32-0.94); rs76507 adjHR 0.48 (95%CI 0.27-0.84); rs2854501 adjHR 0.25 (95%CI 0.12-0.52); rs2854509 adjHR 0.21 (95%CI 0.09-0.46); rs3213255 adjHR 0.46 (95%CI 0.26-0.80). In this group of patients, an increasing number of variant alleles in a XRCC1 gene score were associated with a better survival (26% decrease of risk of death for each additional variant allele in XRCC1). By functional analyses we demonstrated that the previous XRCC1 SNPs confer lower DNA repair capacity. This may support the hypothesis that survival in these patients may be modulated by the different DNA repair capacity determined by genetic variants. Chemotherapy treated cancer patients bearing an increasing number of "risky" alleles in XRCC1 gene had a better survival, suggesting that a proficient DNA repair may result in resistance to therapy and shorter survival. This finding may have clinical implications for the choice of therapy.

Common genetic polymorphisms modify the effect of smoking on absolute risk of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer results from the combined effects of environmental and genetic factors, smoking being the strongest risk factor. Evaluating absolute risks resulting from the joint effects of smoking and genetic factors is critical to assess the public health relevance of genetic information. Analyses included up to 3,942 cases and 5,680 controls of European background in seven studies. We tested for multiplicative and additive interactions between smoking and 12 susceptibility loci, individually and combined as a polygenic risk score (PRS). Thirty-year absolute risks and risk differences by levels of the PRS were estimated for U.S. males aged 50 years. Six of 12 variants showed significant additive gene-environment interactions, most notably NAT2 (P = 7 × 10(-4)) and UGT1A6 (P = 8 × 10(-4)). The 30-year absolute risk of bladder cancer in U.S. males was 6.2% for all current smokers. This risk ranged from 2.9% for current smokers in the lowest quartile of the PRS to 9.9% for current smokers in the upper quartile. Risk difference estimates indicated that 8,200 cases would be prevented if elimination of smoking occurred in 100,000 men in the upper PRS quartile compared with 2,000 cases prevented by a similar effort in the lowest PRS quartile (P(additive) = 1 × 10(-4)). Thus, the potential impact of eliminating smoking on the number of bladder cancer cases prevented is larger for individuals at higher than lower genetic risk. Our findings could have implications for targeted prevention strategies. However, other smoking-related diseases, as well as practical and ethical considerations, need to be considered before any recommendations could be made.

Screening for bladder cancer: rationale, limitations, whom to target, and perspectives

CONTEXT

Bladder cancer (BCa) is the fourth most common cancer in men. Survival from the disease has not improved in the last 25 yr. Population-based screening theoretically provides the best opportunity to improve the outcomes of aggressive BCa.

OBJECTIVE

To review the current literature regarding the usefulness and feasibility of screening for bladder cancer.

EVIDENCE ACQUISITION

We conducted a nonsystematic review restricted to English using the keywords urinary bladder neoplasms, mass screening, mandatory testing, and early detection of cancer. We retrieved 184 articles and selected 22.

EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS

There was no level 1 evidence (obtained from a randomised controlled trial [RCT]) addressing the impact of screening on BCa survival or tumour downstaging. No study assessed the diagnostic performance of urinary markers in the context of screening. Two case-control series suggested a benefit of screening on survival, and a third found a nonsignificant beneficial trend in favour of screening. Two studies suggested downstaging of BCa at diagnosis. Other reports concluded that most cancers detected with screening were of low grade and that current urinary testing cannot detect all tumours. Screening is likely to be of benefit in high-risk populations using cost-efficient high-performing urinary biomarkers. There was insufficient evidence to define an efficient screening protocol.

CONCLUSIONS

Although BCa screening is theoretically feasible in a high-risk population, there is currently insufficient evidence to recommend it. This is due to insufficient data to define an efficient screening protocol with selection of an appropriate population and the lack of accurate and cost-effective urinary markers able to discriminate low-risk from high-risk cancers. Major improvements are needed in the evaluation of urinary biomarkers before evaluation in a RCT can be achieved.

A clinical risk prediction model for Barrett esophagus

Barrett esophagus is the only known precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma. As definitive diagnosis requires costly endoscopic investigation, we sought to develop a risk prediction model to aid in deciding which patients with gastroesophageal reflux symptoms to refer for endoscopic screening for Barrett esophagus. The study included data from patients with incident nondysplastic Barrett esophagus (n = 285) and endoscopy control patients with esophageal inflammatory changes without Barrett esophagus ("inflammation controls", n = 313). We used two phases of stepwise backwards logistic regression to identify the important predictors for Barrett esophagus in men and women separately: first, including all significant covariates from univariate analyses and then fitting non-significant covariates from univariate analyses to identify those effects detectable only after adjusting for other factors. The final model pooled these predictors and was externally validated for discrimination and calibration using data from a Barrett esophagus study conducted in western Washington State. The final risk model included terms for age, sex, smoking status, body mass index, highest level of education, and frequency of use of acid suppressant medications (area under the ROC curve, 0.70; 95%CI, 0.66-0.74). The model had moderate discrimination in the external dataset (area under the ROC curve, 0.61; 95%CI, 0.56-0.66). The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.75), with predicted probability and observed risk highly correlated. The prediction model performed reasonably well and has the potential to be an effective and useful clinical tool in selecting patients with gastroesophageal reflux symptoms to refer for endoscopic screening for Barrett esophagus.

Potential usefulness of single nucleotide polymorphisms to identify persons at high cancer risk: an evaluation of seven common cancers

PURPOSE

To estimate the likely number and predictive strength of cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are yet to be discovered for seven common cancers.

METHODS

From the statistical power of published genome-wide association studies, we estimated the number of undetected susceptibility loci and the distribution of effect sizes for all cancers. Assuming a log-normal model for risks and multiplicative relative risks for SNPs, family history (FH), and known risk factors, we estimated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the proportion of patients with risks above risk thresholds for screening. From additional prevalence data, we estimated the positive predictive value and the ratio of non-patient cases to patient cases (false-positive ratio) for various risk thresholds.

RESULTS

Age-specific discriminatory accuracy (AUC) for models including FH and foreseeable SNPs ranged from 0.575 for ovarian cancer to 0.694 for prostate cancer. The proportions of patients in the highest decile of population risk ranged from 16.2% for ovarian cancer to 29.4% for prostate cancer. The corresponding false-positive ratios were 241 for colorectal cancer, 610 for ovarian cancer, and 138 or 280 for breast cancer in women age 50 to 54 or 40 to 44 years, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Foreseeable common SNP discoveries may not permit identification of small subsets of patients that contain most cancers. Usefulness of screening could be diminished by many false positives. Additional strong risk factors are needed to improve risk discrimination.

Intake of red meat and heterocyclic amines, metabolic pathway genes and bladder cancer risk

We analyzed the association between meat intake, heterocyclic amines (HCAs) and bladder cancer (BC) risk in a large case-control study comprised of 884 BC cases and 878 healthy controls, recruited from 1999 to 2009. Epidemiologic and dietary data were collected via an in-person interview. Compared to the lowest quartile of red meat intake, the odds ratios (ORs) for the second, third and fourth quartiles were 1.17 (95% CI: 0.87-1.58), 1.47 (95% CI: 1.09-1.99) and 1.95 (95% CI: 1.41-2.68), respectively, (p-for trend <0.001). In a subset of participants with intakes of HCAs available, compared with those with the lowest quartile of intake, the ORs for the second, third and fourth quartiles were 1.47 (95% CI: 0.60-3.64), 2.58 (95% CI: 1.09-6.11) and 3.32 (95% CI: 1.37-8.01), respectively, (p for trend <0.001). In cumulative analysis of SNPs in the pathway, compared with subjects carrying 0-4 unfavorable genotypes, subjects carrying 5 and 6 or more unfavorable genotypes were at 1.60-fold (95% CI: 1.20-2.12) and 2.37-fold (95% CI: 1.82-3.10) increased risk, respectively. Moreover, subjects carrying six or more unfavorable genotypes and whose red meat intake was in the highest quartile were at 5.09-fold increased risk (95% CI: 2.89-8.96; p < 0.001). These results strongly support that high red meat intake, high intake of HCAs and carrying high number of unfavorable genotypes in the HCA metabolic pathways are associated with increased risk of BC in the study population.

Rationale for an early detection program for bladder cancer

Introduction:

A total of 356,557 new cases were diagnosed annually worldwide in 2009, it was estimated that 52,810 new patients were to be diagnosed with bladder cancer and there were 10,180 projected deaths from the disease in the USA. Despite being the fourth commonest cancer in men, we do not have an early detection/screening program for bladder cancer. The review was aimed at looking at the evidence for the rationale for an early detection program for bladder cancer.

Materials and Methods:

A detailed search on bladder cancer epidemiology, diagnosis, pathology, tumor markers, treatment outcomes, screening, morbidity and mortality of bladder cancer was carried out on Pubmed central/Medline. Original articles, review articles, monograms, book chapters on bladder cancer, text books on urological oncology, oncology and urology were reviewed. The latest information for new articles before publication was last accessed in June 2010.

Discussion and Conclusions:

Bladder cancer is the fourth commonest cancer in men, the annual death rate from this disease is significant and every year there is an increase in its incidence globally. The prognosis of bladder cancer is stage and grade dependent; the lower the stage (T2 or less) the better is the survival. Delay in the diagnosis and treatment does alter the overall outcome. Therefore, there is a clear need for early detection of bladder cancer and screening program. Although we do not have an ideal marker for bladder cancer, it is time we maximize the potential of markers such as UroVysion, NMP22 along with cytology to start such a program. May be as a first step the early detection and screening program could be started in high-risk population. It is not worth waiting till we find the best marker as it would be unfair to our patients. The fear of unnecessary tests and treatment in bladder cancer after its detection in screening program is without any substance. The cost-effectiveness of such a program is certainly comparable to that is used for colon or breast and for prostate as well.

Strengthening the reporting of genetic risk prediction studies (GRIPS): explanation and elaboration

The rapid and continuing progress in gene discovery for complex diseases is fuelling interest in the potential application of genetic risk models for clinical and public health practice. The number of studies assessing the predictive ability is steadily increasing, but they vary widely in completeness of reporting and apparent quality. Transparent reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of these studies is important to facilitate the accumulation of evidence on genetic risk prediction. A multidisciplinary workshop sponsored by the Human Genome Epidemiology Network developed a checklist of 25 items recommended for strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS), building on the principles established by prior reporting guidelines. These recommendations aim to enhance the transparency, quality and completeness of study reporting, and thereby to improve the synthesis and application of information from multiple studies that might differ in design, conduct or analysis.

Strengthening the reporting of genetic risk prediction studies (GRIPS): explanation and elaboration

• The rapid and continuing progress in gene discovery for complex diseases is fuelling interest in the potential application of genetic risk models for clinical and public health practice. • The number of studies assessing the predictive ability is steadily increasing, but they vary widely in completeness of reporting and apparent quality. • Transparent reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of these studies is important to facilitate the accumulation of evidence on genetic risk prediction. • A multidisciplinary workshop sponsored by the Human Genome Epidemiology Network developed a checklist of 25 items recommended for strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS), building on the principles established by prior reporting guidelines. • These recommendations aim to enhance the transparency, quality and completeness of study reporting and thereby to improve the synthesis and application of information from multiple studies that might differ in design, conduct or analysis.

Strengthening the reporting of genetic risk prediction studies (GRIPS): explanation and elaboration

The rapid and continuing progress in gene discovery for complex diseases is fueling interest in the potential application of genetic risk models for clinical and public health practice. The number of studies assessing the predictive ability is steadily increasing, but they vary widely in completeness of reporting and apparent quality. Transparent reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of these studies is important to facilitate the accumulation of evidence on genetic risk prediction. A multidisciplinary workshop sponsored by the Human Genome Epidemiology Network developed a checklist of 25 items recommended for strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS), building on the principles established by previous reporting guidelines. These recommendations aim to enhance the transparency, quality and completeness of study reporting, and thereby to improve the synthesis and application of information from multiple studies that might differ in design, conduct or analysis.

Comprehensive pathway-based interrogation of genetic variations in the nucleotide excision DNA repair pathway and risk of bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence suggests that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in nucleotide excision repair (NER) pathway genes play an important role in bladder cancer etiology. However, only a limited number of genes and variations in this pathway have been evaluated to date.

METHODS

In this study, the authors applied a comprehensive pathway-based approach to assess the effects of 207 tagging and potentially functional SNPs in 26 NER genes on bladder cancer risk using a large case-control study that included 803 bladder cancer cases and 803 controls.

RESULTS

In total, 17 SNPs were associated significantly with altered bladder cancer risk (P < .05), of which, 7 SNPs retained noteworthiness after they were assessed with a Bayesian approach for the probability of false discovery. The most noteworthy SNP was reference SNP 11132186 (rs11132186) in the inhibitor of growth family, member 2 (ING2) gene. Compared with the major allele-containing genotypes, the odds ratio was 0.52 (95% confidence interval, 0.32-0.83; P = .005) for the homozygous variant genotype. Three additional ING2 variants also exhibited significant associations with bladder cancer risk. Significant gene-smoking interactions were observed for 3 of the top 17 SNPs. Furthermore, through an exploratory classification and regression tree (CART) analysis, potential gene-gene interactions were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

In this a large association study of the NER pathway and the risk of bladder cancer, several novel predisposition variants were identified along with potential gene-gene and gene-environment interactions in modulating bladder cancer risk. The results reinforce the importance of a comprehensive, pathway-focused, and tagging SNP-based candidate gene approach to identify low-penetrance cancer susceptibility loci.

Genome-based prediction of breast cancer risk in the general population: a modeling study based on meta-analyses of genetic associations

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies identified novel breast cancer susceptibility variants that could be used to predict breast cancer in asymptomatic women. This review and modeling study aimed to investigate the current and potential predictive performance of genetic risk models.

METHODS

Genotypes and disease status were simulated for a population of 10,000 women. Genetic risk models were constructed from polymorphisms from meta-analysis including, in separate scenarios, all polymorphisms or statistically significant polymorphisms only. We additionally investigated the magnitude of the odds ratios (OR) for 1 to 100 hypothetical polymorphisms that would be needed to achieve similar discriminative accuracy as available prediction models [modeled range of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.70-0.80].

RESULTS

Of the 96 polymorphisms that had been investigated in meta-analyses, 41 showed significant associations. AUC was 0.68 for the genetic risk model based on all 96 polymorphisms and 0.67 for the 41 significant polymorphisms. Addition of 50 additional variants, each with risk allele frequencies of 0.30, requires per-allele ORs of 1.2 to increase this AUC to 0.70, 1.3 to increase AUC to 0.75, and 1.5 to increase AUC to 0.80. To achieve AUC of 0.80, even 100 additional variants would need per-allele ORs of 1.3 to 1.7, depending on risk allele frequencies.

CONCLUSION

The predictive ability of genetic risk models in breast cancer has the potential to become comparable to that of current breast cancer risk models.

IMPACT

Risk prediction based on low susceptibility variants becomes a realistic tool in prevention of nonfamilial breast cancer.

Genetic susceptibility to bladder cancer risk and outcome

Bladder cancer is an excellent model for studying genetic susceptibility and gene-environment interaction in cancer etiology. The candidate gene approach found NAT2 slow acetylator and GSTM1-null genotypes to be bladder cancer susceptibility loci and also demonstrated interactions between these two genotypes and smoking in modulating bladder cancer risk. Recent genome-wide association studies identified at least eight novel genetic susceptibility loci for bladder cancer. Genetic determinants of clinical outcomes have been inconclusive. The future directions are to identify more genetic susceptibility loci for bladder cancer risk and outcome through a genome-wide association study approach, identify the causal genes and variants, study the biological mechanisms underlying the association between the causal variants and bladder cancer risk, detect gene-environment interactions and incorporate genetic knowledge into clinically applicable risk prediction models to benefit patients and public health.

Strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS): explanation and elaboration

The rapid and continuing progress in gene discovery for complex diseases is fuelling interest in the potential application of genetic risk models for clinical and public health practice. The number of studies assessing the predictive ability is steadily increasing, but they vary widely in completeness of reporting and apparent quality. Transparent reporting of the strengths and weaknesses of these studies is important to facilitate the accumulation of evidence on genetic risk prediction. A multidisciplinary workshop sponsored by the Human Genome Epidemiology Network developed a checklist of 25 items recommended for strengthening the reporting of Genetic RIsk Prediction Studies (GRIPS), building on the principles established by prior reporting guidelines. These recommendations aim to enhance the transparency, quality and completeness of study reporting, and thereby to improve the synthesis and application of information from multiple studies that might differ in design, conduct or analysis.

DNA methylation array analysis identifies profiles of blood-derived DNA methylation associated with bladder cancer

PURPOSE

Epigenetic alterations in tissues targeted for cancer play a causal role in carcinogenesis. Changes in DNA methylation in nontarget tissues, specifically peripheral blood, can also affect risk of malignant disease. We sought to identify specific profiles of DNA methylation in peripheral blood that are associated with bladder cancer risk and therefore serve as an epigenetic marker of disease susceptibility.

METHODS

We performed genome-wide DNA methylation profiling on participants involved in a population-based incident case-control study of bladder cancer.

RESULTS

In a training set of 112 cases and 118 controls, we identified a panel of 9 CpG loci whose profile of DNA methylation was significantly associated with bladder cancer in a masked, independent testing series of 111 cases and 119 controls (P < .0001). Membership in three of the most methylated classes was associated with a 5.2-fold increased risk of bladder cancer (95% CI, 2.8 to 9.7), and a model that included the methylation classification, participant age, sex, smoking status, and family history of bladder cancer was a significant predictor of bladder cancer (area under the curve, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82). CpG loci associated with bladder cancer and aging had neighboring sequences enriched for transcription-factor binding sites related to immune modulation and forkhead family members.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that profiles of epigenetic states in blood are associated with risk of bladder cancer and signal the potential utility of epigenetic profiles in peripheral blood as novel markers of susceptibility to this and other malignancies.

Germline genetic markers for urinary bladder cancer risk, prognosis and treatment response

After decades of research using a candidate gene approach, only NAT2 and GSTM1 have consistently been demonstrated to be germline genetic susceptibility markers for urinary bladder cancer (UBC). The recent shift to an agnostic genome-wide association approach led to the identification of several UBC susceptibility loci, and provided valuable leads for new mechanistic insights into UBC carcinogenesis. The markers do not have sufficient discriminatory ability yet to be applied for risk assessment in the population and the question is whether they ever will. Prognostic and predictive studies in UBC are still in their infancy compared with etiologic studies. In the future, focus on a genome-wide association approach possibly using whole-genome sequence data, consortia formation and meta-analyses, and blood and tumor tissue collection, preferably in the context of randomized controlled trials will stimulate well designed and sufficiently powered studies, and thereby enhance the elucidation of genetic prognostic and predictive markers.

BCAN Think Tank session 1: Overview of risks for and causes of bladder cancer

This article reviews the proceedings of the cause and risk session of the recently held BCAN Bladder Think Tank in 2009. Understanding associations between specific genetic changes and development of particular forms of bladder cancer, whether low-grade or more invasive forms, may justify screening programs for earlier detection. A fundamental epidemiological issue is causation. Associations are supported by high rates in industrialized regions and parallel associations with cigarette smoking. The evolution to molecular and integrative epidemiology incorporates molecular and cytogenetic markers in host and tumor tissue with classic epidemiology to develop risk assessment models to identify high-risk populations. Animal models can teach us something about human bladder cancer and address the issue of the differentiation between papillary low-grade and invasive high-grade tumors. After the diagnosis of a bladder tumor, pathological risk stratification becomes important but there are weaknesses in the current grading systems. Molecular grading may provide a new, simple, and highly reproducible tool to determine bladder cancer prognosis. Based on our current knowledge, including gaps in that knowledge, education is the immediate top-priority action item. The promotion of smoking cessation is also a high priority action. The symptoms of bladder cancer, particularly hematuria, must be emphasized to both the medical and lay. Given the costs associated with the treatment and surveillance of bladder cancer, a comprehensive program supported by governmental funding sources to identify the risks associated with bladder cancer development would seem prudent.

Gamma-radiation sensitivity and polymorphisms in RAD51L1 modulate glioma risk

BACKGROUND

DNA strand breaks pose the greatest threat to genomic stability. Genetically determined mutagen sensitivity predisposes individuals to a variety of cancers, including glioma. However, polymorphisms in DNA strand break repair genes that may determine mutagen sensitivity are not well studied in cancer risk, especially in gliomas.

METHODS

We correlated genotype data for tag single-nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) of DNA strand break repair genes with a gamma-radiation-induced mutagen sensitivity phenotype [expressed as mean breaks per cell (B/C)] in samples from 426 glioma patients. We also conducted analysis to assess joint and haplotype effects of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on mutagen sensitivity. We further validate our results in an independent external control group totaling 662 subjects.

RESULTS

Of the 392 tSNPs examined, we found that mutagen sensitivity was modified by one tSNP in the EME2 gene and six tSNPs in the RAD51L1 gene (P < 0.01). Among the six RAD51L1 SNPs tested in the validation set, one (RAD51L1 rs2180611) was significantly associated with mutagen sensitivity (P = 0.025). Moreover, we found a significant dose-response relationship between the mutagen sensitivity and the number of adverse tSNP genotypes. Furthermore, haplotype analysis revealed that RAD51L1 haplotypes F-A (zero adverse allele) and F-E (six adverse alleles) exhibited the lowest (0.42) and highest (0.93) mean B/C values, respectively. A similar dose-response relationship also existed between the mutagen sensitivity and the number of adverse haplotypes.

CONCLUSION

These results suggest that polymorphisms in and haplotypes of the RAD51L1 gene, which is involved in the double-strand break repair pathway, modulate gamma-radiation-induced mutagen sensitivity.

Comparison of discriminatory power and accuracy of three lung cancer risk models

Background:

Three lung cancer (LC) models have recently been constructed to predict an individual's absolute risk of LC within a defined period. Given their potential application in prevention strategies, a comparison of their accuracy in an independent population is important.

Methods:

We used data for 3197 patients with LC and 1703 cancer-free controls recruited to an ongoing case–control study at the Harvard School of Public Health and Massachusetts General Hospital. We estimated the 5-year LC risk for each risk model and compared the discriminatory power, accuracy, and clinical utility of these models.

Results:

Overall, the Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) and Spitz models had comparable discriminatory power (0.69), whereas the Bach model had significantly lower power (0.66; P=0.02). Positive predictive values were highest with the Spitz models, whereas negative predictive values were highest with the LLP model. The Spitz and Bach models had lower sensitivity but better specificity than did the LLP model.

Conclusion:

We observed modest differences in discriminatory power among the three LC risk models, but discriminatory powers were moderate at best, highlighting the difficulty in developing effective risk models.

Genome-wide association studies of bladder cancer risk: a field synopsis of progress and potential applications

The advent of the genome era after the completion of the Human Genome Project has resulted in intensive efforts to identify all genetic variants that modify human health and disease, including cancer. The development of genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach has facilitated this goal by unbiased examination of the entire human genome for disease association. Here, we review some of the GWAS data, particularly for bladder cancer, and assess their significance in risk prediction and prognosis. A mechanistic understanding of the risk association through functional studies and phenotypic assays is also discussed. The ultimate goal is the development of a comprehensive risk prediction model which integrates genetic, environment, and person risk factors to benefit disease diagnosis, prevention, and treatment.

Pharmacogenomics of platinum-based chemotherapy in NSCLC

NSCLC is the leading cause of cancer-related death in the US. Patients with NSCLC are mostly treated with platinum-based chemotherapy, often in combination with radiation therapy. However, the development of chemo-resistance is a major hurdle limiting treatment success. In this review, we summarize the current understanding of the genetic factors modulating chemoresistance to platinum chemotherapeutics and their association with clinical outcomes for NSCLC patients. We focus on candidate pathways responsible for drug influx and efflux, metabolism and detoxification, DNA damage repair, and other downstream cellular processes that modulate the effect of platinum-based therapy. We also discuss the application of pathway-based polygenic and genome-wide approaches in identifying genetic factors involved in NSCLC clinical outcomes. Overall, current studies have shown that the effects of each individual polymorphism on clinical outcomes are modest suggesting that a more comprehensive approach that incorporates polygenetic, phenotypic, epidemiologic and clinical variables will be necessary to predict prognosis for NSCLC patients receiving platinum-based chemotherapeutics.

Common predisposition alleles for moderately common cancers: bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is the 5th commonest cancer and two major risk factors are smoking and occupational chemical exposure. There is also evidence of a genetic component to its aetiology. Candidate gene studies have mostly focused on genes involved in adduct metabolism and DNA repair, including a recent consortium-based meta-analysis. Recently, two genome-wide association studies in bladder cancer have been published and a third is awaited with interest. These first two studies have identified three SNPs of genome-wide significance, two located within the 8q24 'gene desert'. These SNPs are positioned near or within loci of genes potentially implicated in cancer predisposition, namely MYC, TP63 and PSCA, although the functional significance of this is as yet unclear.