Prognostic nomogram for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma after partial hepatectomy

The preoperative scoring system combining neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio and CA19-9 predicts the long-term prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma patients undergoing curative liver resection

BACKGROUND

This study aims to investigate preoperative prognostic factors available for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients and propose a new preoperative prognostic scoring system for ICC that combines CA19-9 and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR).

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis, 1728 patients diagnosed with ICC and undergoing curative liver resections were studied. This study employed univariate and multivariate Cox regression to find factors affecting recurrence and overall survival (OS), and furthermore assessed how preoperative models influenced tumor traits and postoperative recurrence.

RESULTS

The results of the multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that two preoperative variables, NLR and Ca19-9, were independent risk factors affecting postoperative recurrence and OS in ICC patients. Based on this data, assigning a score of 0 (NLR ≤ 2.4 and Ca19-9 ≤ 37U/ml) or 1 (NLR > 2.4 and Ca19-9 > 37U/ml) to these two factors, a preoperative prognostic score was derived. According to the scoring model, patients were divided into three groups: 0 points (low-risk group), 1 point (intermediate-risk group), and 2 points (high-risk group). The 5-year recurrence and OS rates for the three groups were 56.6%, 68.2%, 77.8%, and 56.8%, 40.6%, 27.6%, respectively, with all P values < 0.001. Furthermore, high-risk group patients were more prone to early recurrence (early recurrence rates for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups were 56.8%, 51.5%, and 37.1%, respectively, P < 0.001) and extrahepatic metastasis (extrahepatic metastasis rates for high-, intermediate-, and low-risk groups were 31.7%, 26.4%, and 15.4%, respectively, P < 0.001). In terms of tumor characteristics, high-risk group patients had larger tumor diameters and were more likely to experience microvascular invasion, lymph node metastasis, and perineural invasion.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive capacity of postoperative recurrence and OS rates in ICC patients is effectively captured by the preoperative scoring system incorporating NLR and CA19-9 levels.

External validation of a novel nomogram for diagnosis of Protein Energy Wasting in adult hemodialysis patients

Background

Protein Energy Wasting (PEW) has high incidence in adult hemodialysis patients and refers to a state of decreased protein and energy substance. It has been demonstrated that PEW highly affects the quality of survival and increases the risk of death. Nevertheless, its diagnostic criteria are complex in clinic. To simplify the diagnosis method of PEW in adult hemodialysis patients, we previously established a novel clinical prediction model that was well-validated internally using bootstrapping. In this multicenter cross-sectional study, we aimed to externally validate this nomogram in a new cohort of adult hemodialysis patients.

Methods

The novel prediction model was built by combining four independent variables with part of the International Society of Renal Nutrition and Metabolism (ISRNM) diagnostic criteria including albumin, total cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI). We evaluated the performance of the new model using discrimination (Concordance Index), calibration plots, and Clinical Impact Curve to assess its predictive utility.

Results

From September 1st, 2022 to August 31st, 2023, 1,158 patients were screened in five medical centers in Shanghai. 622 (53.7%) hemodialysis patients were included for analysis. The PEW predictive model was acceptable discrimination with the area under the curve of 0.777 (95% CI 0.741-0.814). Additionally, the model revealed well-fitted calibration curves. The McNemar test showed the novel model had similar diagnostic efficacy with the gold standard diagnostic method (p > 0.05).

Conclusion

Our results from this cross-sectional external validation study further demonstrate that the novel model is a valid tool to identify PEW in adult hemodialysis patients effectively.

Preventing futile surgery in Intrahepatic and Perihilar cholangiocarcinomas: Can we identify preoperative factors to improve patient selection and optimize outcomes?

BACKGROUND

Intraoperative unresectability, postoperative deaths and early recurrences remain devastating futile events in the surgical management of Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinomas (iCCA) and Perihilar cholangiocarcinomas (pCCA). The present study aims to determine the preoperative predictors of futile surgery in cholangiocarcinomas.

METHODS

Consecutive hepatectomies for iCCA and pCCA, between September 2010 and June 2022 were included. Futility of surgery was defined as either intraoperative unresectability, postoperative 30-day mortality or recurrence within six months of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify predictors of futility.

RESULTS

One hundred and fifty patients of iCCA and pCCA underwent surgery during the time period. Thirty-seven (38.1 %) out of 97 patients of iCCA and 25(47.16 %) out of 53 patients of pCCA underwent futile resection. The predictive factors of futile surgery for iCCA were tumour number (≥2) (OR, 9.705; 95%CI, 2.378-39.614; p = 0.002), serum aspartate transaminase (OR, 8.31; 95%CI, 2.796-24.703; p < 0.001) and serum CA-19.9 (>37 U/ml) (OR, 2.95; 95%CI, 1.051-8.283; p = 0.04). The predictive factors of futility for pCCA were lymph node involvement (OR, 7.636; 95%CI, 1.824-31.979; p = 0.005) and serum alkaline phosphatase (>562.5 U/L) (OR, 11.211; 95%CI, 1.752-71.750; p = 0.011).

CONCLUSION

Futile surgery was observed in over one third of our patients. Five strong preoperative predictors of futility were identified. Careful analysis of these factors may reduce futile surgical explorations.

Association Between MRI Radiomics and Intratumoral Tertiary Lymphoid Structures in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma and Its Prognostic Significance

BACKGROUND

Tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs) have prognostic value in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. Noninvasive tool to preoperatively evaluate TLSs is still lacking.

PURPOSE

To explore the association between TLSs status of ICC and preoperative MRI radiomics analysis.

STUDY TYPE

Retrospective.

SUBJECTS

One hundred and ninety-two patients with ICC, divided into training (T = 105), internal validation groups (V1 = 46), and external validation group (V2 = 41).

SEQUENCE

Coronal and axial single-shot fast spin-echo T2-weighted, diffusion-weighted imaging, T1-weighted, and T1WI fat-suppressed spoiled gradient-recall echo LAVA sequence at 3.0 T.

ASSESSMENT

The VOIs were drawn manually within the visible borders of the tumors using ITK-SNAP version 3.8.0 software in the axial T2WI, DWI, and portal vein phase sequences. Radiomics features were subjected to least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression to select the associated features of TLSs and construct the radiomics model. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the clinical radiological variables associated with TLSs. The performances were evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC).

STATISTICAL TESTS

Logistic regression analysis, ROC and AUC, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The AUCs of arterial phase diffuse hyperenhancement were 0.59 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.67), 0.52 (95% CI, 0.43-0.61), and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.52-0.80) in the T, V1, and V2 cohorts. The AUCs of Rad-score were 0.85 (95% CI, 0.77-0.92), 0.81 (95% CI, 0.67-0.94), and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.71-0.96) in the T, V1, and V2 cohorts, respectively. In cohort T, low-risk group showed significantly better median recurrence-free survival (RFS) than that of the high-risk group, which was also confirmed in cohort V1 and V2.

DATA CONCLUSION

A preoperative MRI radiomics signature is associated with the intratumoral TLSs status of ICC patients and correlate significantly with RFS.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Has Management of Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma Evolved with the Evidence? Trends and Practice Patterns from the National Cancer Database

BACKGROUND

Management of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (IHC) has advanced in recent decades, including randomized trial evidence supporting systemic therapy in the palliative and adjuvant setting. Mounting observational evidence suggests resection of IHC with multifocal disease (IHC-MF) or lymph node metastasis (IHC-LNM) should be limited. It is unknown how real-world practice has evolved in light of research advances. This study characterizes trends in management and outcomes of IHC without distant metastasis.

METHODS

We queried the National Cancer Database (NCDB) for patients treated for IHC without distant metastasis (M0) and identified subgroups with lymph node (cN1) or multifocal hepatic involvement (cT2b). Two-sided Cochran-Armitage tests evaluated trends in initial treating modality and perioperative chemotherapy. Logistic regression evaluated associations with choice of initial treating modality. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated by using Kaplan-Meier methods.

RESULTS

Between 2004 and 2020, 11,368 patients were treated for IHC without extrahepatic metastasis. Forty-three percent underwent resection. Initial management shifted from resection towards radiation or systemic therapy in IHC-MF and IHC-LNM. Use of perioperative chemotherapy increased from 39% pre-2010 to 70% in 2018-2020 (p < 0.001), most often delivered postoperatively. Across the entire cohort, median OS improved from 16 (95% confidence interval [CI] 15-18) to 27 months (95% CI 26-29). More modest improvements were observed in IHC-MF and IHC-LNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of perioperative chemotherapy has been widely adopted, predating randomized trial evidence in the adjuvant setting. Initial management of IHC-MF and IHC-LNM has shifted from resection to systemic and/or radiation therapy. While OS has improved overall, outcomes of IHC-MF and IHC-LNM remain poor, warranting further investigation.

Development and validation of nomograms to predict survival and recurrence after hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced (BCLC stage B/C) hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Despite the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer system discouraging hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, the procedure is still performed worldwide, particularly in Asia. This study aimed to develop and validate nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence for these patients.

METHODS

We analyzed patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma between 2010 and 2020 across 3 Chinese hospitals. The Eastern Hepatobiliary Surgery Hospital cohort was used as the training cohort for the nomogram construction, and the Jilin First Hospital and Fujian Mengchao Hepatobiliary Hospital cohorts served as the external validation cohorts. Independent preoperative predictors for survival and recurrence were identified through univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Predictive accuracy was measured using the concordance index and calibration curves. The predictive performance between nomograms and conventional hepatocellular carcinoma staging systems was compared.

RESULTS

A total of 1,328 patients met the inclusion criteria. The nomograms for predicting survival and recurrence were developed using 10 and 6 independent variables, respectively. Nomograms' concordance indices in the training cohort were 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.759-0.800) and 0.719 (95% confidence interval 0.697-0.742) for survival and recurrence, outperforming 4 conventional staging systems (P < .001). Nomograms accurately stratified risk into low, intermediate, and high subgroups. These results were validated well by 2 external validation cohorts.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated nomograms predicting survival and recurrence for patients with intermediate/advanced hepatocellular carcinoma, contradicting Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer surgical guidelines. These nomograms may facilitate clinicians to formulate personalized surgical decisions, estimate long-term prognosis, and strategize neoadjuvant/adjuvant anti-recurrence therapy.

Development of machine learning models for patients in the high intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma incidence age group

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a poor prognosis and is understudied. Based on the clinical features of patients with ICC, we constructed machine learning models to understand their importance on survival and to accurately determine patient prognosis, aiming to develop reference values to guide physicians in developing more effective treatment plans.

METHODS

This study used machine learning (ML) algorithms to build prediction models using ICC data on 1,751 patients from the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results) database and 58 hospital cases. The models' performances were compared using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, C-index, and Brier scores.

RESULTS

A total of eight variables were used to construct the ML models. Our analysis identified the random survival forest model as the best for prognostic prediction. In the training cohort, its C-index, Brier score, and Area Under the Curve values were 0.76, 0.124, and 0.882, respectively, and it also performed well in the test cohort. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the model could effectively determine patient prognosis.

CONCLUSIONS

To our knowledge, this is the first study to develop ML prognostic models for ICC in the high-incidence age group. Of the ML models, the random survival forest model was best at prognosis prediction.

A Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival of Patients With Primary Spinal Cord Glioblastoma

OBJECTIVE

Primary spinal cord glioblastoma (PSCGBM) is a rare malignancy with a poor prognosis. To date, no prognostic nomogram for this rare disease was established. Hence, we aimed to develop a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of PSCGBM.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients with PSCGBM was retrospectively collected from the neurosurgery department of Soochow University Affiliated Second Hospital and the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database. Information including age, sex, race, tumor extension, extent of resection, adjuvant treatment, marital status, income, year of diagnosis and months from diagnosis to treatment were recorded. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors for PSCGBM. A nomogram was constructed to predict 1-year, 1.5-year, and 2-year OS of PSCGBM.

RESULTS

A total of 132 patients were included. The 1-year, 1.5-year, and 2-year OS were 45.5%, 29.5%, and 18.9%, respectively. Four variables: age groups, tumor extension, extent of resection, and adjuvant therapy, were identified as independent prognostic factors. The nomogram showed robust discrimination with a C-index value for the prediction of 1-year OS, 1.5-year OS, and 2-year of 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61-0.70), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.62-0.70), and 0.70 (95% CI, 0.61-0.70), respectively. The calibration curves exhibited high consistencies between the predicted and observed survival probability in this cohort.

CONCLUSION

We have developed and internally validated a nomogram for predicting the survival outcome of PSCGBM for the first time. The nomogram has the potential to assist clinicians in making individualized predictions of survival outcome of PSCGBM.

Anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation for solitary intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a propensity-matched analysis

BACKGROUND

Anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation has shown advantages in hepatocellular carcinoma. However, whether this approach improves the survival of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) remains unknown.

METHODS

A series of 248 consecutive patients with solitary ICCs who underwent hepatectomy were studied retrospectively. The patients were classified into the groups of anatomical sectionectomy based on Takasaki's segmentation (TS group) and non-Takasaki's hepatectomy (NTH group). The bias between the two groups was minimized using propensity score matching (PSM). Recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated with Kaplan-Meier analysis. The Cox proportional hazards model was performed to determine the adverse risk factors associated with survival.

RESULTS

After PSM, 67 pairs of patients were compared. Both the RFS and OS rates in the TS group were significantly better than those in the NTH group (23.2 % vs. 16.5 %, and 40.4 % vs. 27.3 %, P = 0.035 and 0.032, respectively). Multivariate analysis showed that NTH was independently associated with worse RFS and OS than TS. The stratified analysis demonstrated that the RFS and OS rates in the TS group with tumor stage I and tumor size ≥3 cm were significantly better than those in the NTH group, while the survival rates for ICC with stage I and tumor size <3 cm or stage II-III showed no significant difference.

CONCLUSION

TS was associated with improved RFS and OS in patients with solitary ICC even after PSM. TS may be preferred particularly in patients with tumor stage I and tumor size ≥3 cm.

Development of a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) radioiodine remnant ablation

Objectives

The objective of this study was to develop a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA).

Methods

Data from 265 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy with central lymph node dissection (CND) and received RRA treatment at a single institution between January 2018 and March 2023 were analyzed. Patients with certain exclusion criteria were excluded. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for a non-excellent response (non-ER) to RRA. A nomogram was developed based on the risk factors, and its performance was validated using the Bootstrap method with 1,000 resamplings. A web-based dynamic calculator was developed for convenient application of the nomogram.

Results

The study included 265 patients with intermediate-risk DTC. Significant differences were found between the ER group and the non-ER group in terms of CLNM>5, Hashimoto's thyroiditis, sTg level, TgAb level (P < 0.05). CLNM>5 and sTg level were identified as independent risk factors for non-ER in multivariate analysis. The nomogram showed high accuracy, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.833 (95% CI = 0.770-0.895). The nomogram's predicted probabilities aligned closely with actual clinical outcomes.

Conclusions

This study developed a predictive nomogram for intermediate-risk DTC patients after fixed 3.7GBq (100mCi) RRA. The nomogram incorporates CLNM>5 and sTg levels as risk factors for a non-ER response to RRA. The nomogram and web-based calculator can assist in treatment decision-making and improve the precision of prognosis information. Further research and validation are needed.

Cholangiocarcinoma: The Current Status of Surgical Options including Liver Transplantation

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) poses a substantial threat as it ranks as the second most prevalent primary liver tumor. The documented annual rise in intrahepatic CCA (iCCA) incidence in the United States is concerning, indicating its growing impact. Moreover, the five-year survival rate after tumor resection is only 25%, given that tumor recurrence is the leading cause of death in 53-79% of patients. Pre-operative assessments for iCCA focus on pinpointing tumor location, biliary tract involvement, vascular encasements, and metastasis detection. Numerous studies have revealed that portal vein embolization (PVE) is linked to enhanced survival rates, improved liver synthetic functions, and decreased overall mortality. The challenge in achieving clear resection margins contributes to the notable recurrence rate of iCCA, affecting approximately two-thirds of cases within one year, and results in a median survival of less than 12 months for recurrent cases. Nearly 50% of patients initially considered eligible for surgical resection in iCCA cases are ultimately deemed ineligible during surgical exploration. Therefore, staging laparoscopy has been proposed to reduce unnecessary laparotomy. Eligibility for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) requires certain criteria to be granted. OLT offers survival advantages for early-detected unresectable iCCA; it can be combined with other treatments, such as radiofrequency ablation and transarterial chemoembolization, in specific cases. We aim to comprehensively describe the surgical strategies available for treating CCA, including the preoperative measures and interventions, alongside the current options regarding liver resection and OLT.

Analysis of the effect on costochondral graft for TMJ ankylosis with jaw deformities in pediatrics

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the effects of costochondral grafting (CCG) used for temporomandibular joint ankylosis (TMJA) in growing patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Pediatric patients with TMJA treated by CCG from 2010.5 to 2021.7 were included in the study. CT scans were performed before and after operations with at least 1 year follow-up. The height of the mandibular ramus, menton deviation or retraction, osteotomy gap, etc. were measured by ProPlan CMF1.4 software. CCG growth, resorption, and relapse were evaluated and analyzed with influencing factors such as age, ostectomy gap, etc. by generalized estimating equation.

RESULTS

There were 24 patients (29 joints) with an average age of 6.30 ± 3.13 years in the study. After operation, the mandibular ramus was elongated by 5.97 ± 3.53 mm. Mandibular deviation or retrusion was corrected by 4.82 ± 2.84 mm and 3.76 ± 2.97 mm respectively. After a mean follow-up of 38.91 ± 29.20 months, 58.62% CCG grew (4.18 ± 7.70 mm), 20.69% absorbed (2.23 ± 1.16 mm), and 20.69% re-ankylosed. The re-ankylosis was negatively correlated with the osteotomy gap (OR:0.348,0.172-0.702 95%CI, critical value = 6.10 mm). CCG resorption was positively correlated with the distance of CCG ramus elongation (OR:3.353,1.173-9.586 95%CI, critical value = 7.40 mm).

CONCLUSIONS

An adequate osteotomy gap and CCG ramus elongation distance are the key factors for successful treatment of TMJA with jaw deformities in growing patients.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

TMJA affects mouth opening and jaw development in pediatric patients. The most common autogenous bone graft for pediatric patients is CCG due to its growth potential, convenient access and easy contouring. Also, it can simultaneously reconstruct the TMJ and improve jaw deformity by lengthening the mandibular ramus. But the growth of CCG is unpredictable. In this study, we explored several factors that may affect the absorption and re-ankylosis of CCG, expecting to provide several suggestions to improve future CCG treatment.

Construction and validation of an innovative prognostic nomogram for overall survival in cervical cancer patients with lung metastasis: an analysis utilizing the SEER database

Purpose

To facilitate patient consultation and assist in clinical decision-making, we developed a predictive model to analyze the overall survival (OS) rate of cervical cancer patients with concurrent lung metastasis for 6 months, 1 year, or 2 years.

Methods

We extracted data on patients diagnosed with cervical cancer and concurrent lung metastasis between 2010 and 2020 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Through a random assignment process, these patients were allocated to either a training cohort or a validation cohort, maintaining a 7:3 ratio. Utilizing both univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, we determined the independent prognostic factors influencing OS. To enhance predictive accuracy, we developed a nomogram model incorporating these identified independent prognostic variables. Model effectiveness was subsequently assessed using various metrics, including receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

We gathered data on 1330 patients diagnosed with cervical cancer with lung metastases. An OS nomogram was developed, accounting for factors such as histological type, presence of metastases in other organs (brain, liver), surgical interventions, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy. The ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA curves demonstrated the commendable predictive performance of the nomogram in assessing the prognosis of cervical cancer patients with lung metastases in both the training and validation cohorts.

Conclusion

By utilizing clinical data from the SEER database, we have effectively devised a nomogram capable of predicting the 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year survival rates of cervical cancer patients with lung metastases. The nomogram boasts high accuracy, offering precise prognostic predictions. Its implementation can guide the formulation of individualized follow-up and treatment plans for enhanced patient care.

MAGP1 maintains tumorigenicity and angiogenesis of laryngeal cancer by activating Wnt/β-catenin/MMP7 pathway

Microfibril-associated glycoprotein-1 (MAGP1), a crucial extracellular matrix protein, contributes to the initiation and progression of different cancers. However, the role of MAGP1 in laryngeal cancer is not clear. The purpose of this study was to investigate the clinical significance and biological function of MAGP1 in laryngeal cancer. MAGP1 was upregulated in public databases and laryngeal cancer tissues, and high MAGP1 expression led to a poor prognosis and was identified as an independent prognostic marker. Knocking-down MAGP1 inhibited laryngeal cancer cell growth and metastasis. According to gene set enrichment analysis, high MAGP1 expression revealed enrichment in Wnt/β-catenin signaling and knocking-down MAGP1 in laryngeal cancer cells also caused degradation, de-activation, re-location and loss of stability of β-catenin. Additionally, we observed MAGP1 in laryngeal cancer cells inhibits angiogenesis in an MMP7-dependent way. In conclusion, our study suggests a clinical role of MAGP1 in laryngeal cancer, signifying its potential as a therapeutic target in the future.

Navigating the future of diabetes: innovative nomogram models for predicting all-cause mortality risk in diabetic nephropathy

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to establish and validate a nomogram model for the all-cause mortality rate in patients with diabetic nephropathy (DN).

METHODS

We analyzed data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) spanning from 2007 to 2016. A random split of 7:3 was performed between the training and validation sets. Utilizing follow-up data until December 31, 2019, we examined the all-cause mortality rate. Cox regression models and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression models were employed in the training cohort to develop a nomogram for predicting all-cause mortality in the studied population. Finally, various validation methods were employed to assess the predictive performance of the nomogram, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

After the results of LASSO regression models and Cox multivariate analyses, a total of 8 variables were selected, gender, age, poverty income ratio, heart failure, body mass index, albumin, blood urea nitrogen and serum uric acid. A nomogram model was built based on these predictors. The C-index values in training cohort of 3-year, 5-year, 10-year mortality rates were 0.820, 0.807, and 0.798. In the validation cohort, the C-index values of 3-year, 5-year, 10-year mortality rates were 0.773, 0.788, and 0.817, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrates satisfactory consistency between the two cohorts.

CONCLUSION

The newly developed nomogram proves to be effective in predicting the all-cause mortality risk in patients with diabetic nephropathy, and it has undergone robust internal validation.

Prognostic nomogram for uncontrolled type 2 diabetes using Thailand nation-wide cross-sectional studies

BACKGROUND

Uncontrolled type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and limited hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels examination are a burden in community hospitals in Thailand. The nomogram from the patients' information might be a practical solution to identify a high-risk group of diabetic complications. Thus, this study aimed to establish an effective prognostic nomogram for patients with uncontrolled T2DM.

METHODS

Sequential nationwide cross-sectional studies of T2DM patients in 2018 and 2015 were utilized for development and validation groups, respectively, with this chronological order aiming to capture recent trends during development and assess the nomogram's robustness across diverse timeframes. The predictive outcome was uncontrolled T2DM, defined as HbA1c ≥9%. The model was determined by multivariable regression analysis and established an effective prognostic nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was applied to evaluate the performance of the nomogram.

RESULTS

In 2018, 24% of the 38,568 participants in the development group had uncontrolled T2DM (defined as Hba1c ≥9%). The predictive nomogram of uncontrolled diabetes consisted of demographic characteristics, prescription medications, history of diabetic complications, and laboratory results (C-statistic of 0.77). The goodness of fit test and DCA showed good agreement between the result and clinical application for T2DM.

CONCLUSION

The predictive nomogram demonstrates simplicity, accuracy, and valuable prediction to enhance diabetic care in resource-limited countries, including Thailand.

MiR-380 inhibits the proliferation and invasion of cholangiocarcinoma cells by silencing LIS1

BACKGROUND

The objective of this study was to determine the role and regulatory mechanism of miR-380 in cholangiocarcinoma.

METHODS

The TargetScan database and a dual-luciferase reporter assay system were used to determine if LIS1 was a target gene of miR-380. The Cell Counting Kit 8 assay, flow cytometry, and Transwell assay were used to detect the effects of miR-380 and LIS1 on the proliferation, S-phase ratio, and invasiveness of HCCC-9810/HuCCT1/QBC939 cells. Western blotting was used to determine the effect of miR-380 on MMP-2/p-AKT. Immunohistochemistry detected the regulatory effect of miR-380 on the expression of MMP-2/p-AKT/LIS1.

RESULTS

Expression of miR-380 in cholangiocarcinoma was decreased but expression of LIS1 was increased. LIS1 was confirmed to be a target gene of miR-380. Transfection with miR-380 mimics inhibited the proliferation, S-phase arrest, and invasion of HCCC-9810/HuCCT1/QBC939 cells, and LIS1 reversed these inhibitory effects. miR-380 inhibitor promoted proliferation, S-phase ratio, and invasiveness of HCCC-9810/HuCCT1/QBC939 cells. si-LIS1 salvaged the promotive effect of miR-380 inhibitor. Overexpression of miR-380 inhibited expression of MMP-2/p-AKT/LIS1, but miR-380 inhibitor promoted their expression.

CONCLUSION

An imbalance of miR-380 expression is closely related to cholangiocarcinoma, and overexpression of miR-380 inhibits the expression of MMP-2/p-AKT by directly targeting LIS1.

Impact of sarcopenia on the short-term and long-term outcomes of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma undergoing hepatectomy: A multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Sarcopenia is associated with adverse prognosis of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) after surgery.

METHODS

321 patients with iCCA undergoing surgery were retrospectively recruited and assigned to training and validation cohort. Skeletal muscle index (SMI) was assessed to define sarcopenia. Logistic regression and cox regression analysis were used to identify risk factors. A novel sarcopenia-based nomogram was constructed and validated by ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA curves.

RESULTS

260 patients were included for analysis. The median age was 63.0 years and 161 patients (61.9%) were diagnosed with sarcopenia. Patients with sarcopenia exhibited a higher rate of postoperative complications, a worse OS and RFS than patients without sarcopenia. Sarcopenia, low albumin and intraoperative blood transfusion were independent risk factors of postoperative complications, while sarcopenia and low albumin were risk factors of high CCI≥26.2. Sarcopenia, high PS score, low-undifferentiated differentiation, perineural invasion, TNM stage III-IV were risk factors of OS, and a novel nomogram based on these five factors was built to predict the 12-, 24-, and 36-months OS, with the mean AUC > 0.6.

CONCLUSION

Sarcopenia is negatively associated with both postoperative complications and survival prognosis of iCCA undergoing hepatectomy.

The development and external validation of a web-based nomogram for predicting overall survival with Ewing sarcoma in children

Background

Ewing sarcoma remains the second most prevalent primary aggressive bone tumor in teens and young adults. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a web-based nomogram to predict the overall survival for Ewing sarcoma in children.

Methods

A total of 698 patients, with 640 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (the training set) and 58 cases (the external validation set), were included in this study. Cox analyses were carried out to determine the independent prognostic indicators, which were further included to establish a web-based nomogram. The predictive abilities were tested through the concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve analysis, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Results

As suggested by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses, age, primary site, tumor size, metastasis stage (M stage), and chemotherapy were included as the independent predictive variables. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, calibration curves, concordance index, and decision curve analysis from training and validation groups suggested the model has great clinical applications.

Conclusion

We developed a convenient and precise web-based nomogram to evaluate overall survival for Ewing sarcoma in children. The application of this nomogram would assist physicians and patients in making decisions.

The significance of resection margins on R0 results in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma is the second most common primary liver cancer after hepatocellular carcinoma with an increasing incidence worldwide. Surgical resection is still the only potential cure, and survival rates are dismal due to disease relapse after resection and/or metastatic disease. Positive resection margins are associated with recurrence, with conflicting studies regarding the benefits of wide resection margins to reduce recurrence rates.

METHODS

126 patients with an R0 resection treated with hepatic surgery for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma at the Surgical Department at the Medical University Centre Essen, Germany were identified in a database and retrospectively analysed. Patients were grouped into three groups according to margin width, <1 mm (very narrow margin width) 1-5 mm (narrow margin width) and >5 mm (wide margin width). Epidemiological as well as perioperative data was analysed, and a univariate analysis as well as Kaplan-Meier plots carried out to investigate recurrence-free and overall survival.

RESULTS

Wider resection margins did not lead to better recurrence-free survival. A wider resection margin >5 mm was not significantly associated with improved overall survival. Positive lymph nodes (HR 2.50, 95% CI 1.11-5.61, p=0.027) and non-anatomic resections (HR 2.06, 95% CI 1.13-3.75, p=0.019) are significantly associated with poorer overall survival. Regarding recurrence-free survival, V2 vascular invasion was the only risk factor statistically significantly associated with poorer recurrence-free survival (HR 8.83, 95% CI 0.85-2.83, p=0.005).

CONCLUSION

Resection margins did not have a significant impact on disease free survival or overall survival following hepatic resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. Non-anatomical resections, lymph node and vascular invasion all significantly impacted oncological outcomes.

Liver transplantation as an alternative for the treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: Past, present, and future directions

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a rare biliary tract cancer with high mortality rate. Complete resection of the iCCA lesion is the first choice of treatment, with good prognosis after margin-negative resection. Unfortunately, only 12%-40% of patients are eligible for resection at presentation due to cirrhosis, portal hypertension, or large tumor size. Liver transplantation (LT) offers margin-negative iCCA extirpation for patients with unresectable tumors. Initially, iCCA was a contraindication for LT until size-based selection criteria were introduced to identify patients with satisfied post-LT outcomes. Recent studies have shown that tumor biology-based selection can yield high post-LT survival in patients with locally advanced iCCA. Another selection criterion is the tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy. Patients with response to neoadjuvant therapy have better outcomes after LT compared with those without tumor response to neoadjuvant therapy. Another index that helps predict the treatment outcome is the biomarker. Improved survival outcomes have also opened the door for living donor LT for iCCA. Patients undergoing LT for iCCA now have statistically similar survival rates as patients undergoing resection. The combination of surgery and locoregional and systemic therapies improves the prognosis of iCCA patients.

Construction and validation of log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS)-based nomograms for predicting overall survival and cancer-specific survival in ovarian clear cell carcinoma patients

Background

Ovarian clear cell carcinoma (OCCC) is one of the special histologic subtypes of ovarian cancer. This study aimed to construct and validate log odds of positive lymph nodes (LODDS)-based nomograms for predicting the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with OCCC.

Methods

Patients who underwent surgical treatment between 2010 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database and the data of OCCC patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Dalian Medical University were used as the external validation group to test the validity of the prognostic model. The best-fitting models were selected by stepwise Cox regression analysis. Survival probability was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the differences in survival time between subgroups were compared using the log-rank test. Each nomogram's performance was assessed by the calibration plots, decision curve analysis (DCA), and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves.

Results

T stage, distant metastasis, marital status, and LODDS were identified as significant risk factors for OS. A model with four risk factors (age, T stage, stage, and LODDS value) was obtained for CSS. Nomograms were constructed by incorporating the prognostic factors to predict 1-, 3- and 5-year OS and CSS for OCCC patients, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) range of our nomogram model for OS and CSS prediction ranged from 0.738-0.771 and 0.769-0.794, respectively, in the training cohort. The performance of this model was verified in the internal and external validation cohorts. Calibration plots illustrated nomograms have good prognostic reliability.

Conclusion

Predictive nomograms were constructed and validated to evaluate the OS and CSS of OCCC patients. These nomograms may provide valuable prognostic information and guide postoperative personalized care in OCCC.

Tumor burden score and carcinoembryonic antigen predict outcomes in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma following liver resection: a multi‑institutional analysis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of tumor burden score (TBS) in relation to carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) has not been investigated among patients undergoing hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC). This study aimed to develop and validate a simplified model, a combination of TBS and CEA (CTC grade), for predicting the long-term outcomes of postoperative ICC patients.

METHODS

Patients who underwent curative - intent resection of ICC between 2011 and 2019 were identified from a large multi - institutional database. The impact of TBS, CEA, and the CTC grade on overall survival (OS) and recurrence - free survival (RFS) was evaluated in both the derivation and validation cohorts. The receiver operating characteristic curve was utilized for assessing the predictive accuracy of the model. Subgroup analyses were performed across 8th TNM stage system stratified by CTC grade to assess the discriminatory capacity within the same TNM stage.

RESULTS

A total of 812 patients were included in the derivation cohort and 266 patients in the validation cohort. Survival varied based on CEA (low: 36.7% vs. high: 9.0%) and TBS (low: 40.3% vs. high: 17.6%) in relation to 5 - year survival (both p < 0.001). As expected, patients with low CTC grade (i.e., low TBS/low CEA) were associated with the best OS as well as RFS, while high CTC grade (i.e., high TBS/high CEA) correlated to the worst outcomes. The model exhibited well performance in both the derivation cohort (area under the curve of 0.694) and the validation cohort (0.664). The predictive efficacy of the CTC grade system remains consistently stable across TNM stages I and III/IV.

CONCLUSION

The CTC grade, a composite parameter derived from the combination of TBS and CEA levels, served as an easy - to - use tool and performed well in stratifying patients with ICC relative to OS and RFS.

Surgical management, including the role of transplantation, for intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma

Intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma are life threatening disease with poor outcomes despite optimal treatment currently available (5-year overall survival following resection 20-35%, and <10% cured at 10-years post resection). The insidious onset makes diagnosis difficult, the majority do not have a resection option and the high recurrence rate post-resection suggests that occult metastatic disease is frequently present. Advances in perioperative management, such as ipsilateral portal vein (and hepatic vein) embolisation methods to increase the future liver remnant volume, genomic profiling, and (neo)adjuvant therapies demonstrate great potential in improving outcomes. However multiple areas of controversy exist. Surgical resection rate and outcomes vary between centres with no global consensus on how 'resectable' disease is defined - molecular profiling and genomic analysis could potentially identify patients unlikely to benefit from resection or likely to benefit from targeted therapies. FDG-PET scanning has also improved the ability to detect metastatic disease preoperatively and avoid futile resection. However tumours frequently invade major vasculo-biliary structures, with resection and reconstruction associated with significant morbidity and mortality even in specialist centres. Liver transplantation has been investigated for very selected patients for the last decade and yet the selection algorithm, surgical approach and both value of both neoadjuvant and adjuvant therapies remain to be clarified. In this review, we discuss the contemporary management of intrahepatic and peri-hilar cholangiocarcinoma.

Nodal recurrence mapping and clinical target volumes after resection of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma or combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma

Background

Scarce evidence exists for clinical target volume (CTV) definitions of regional lymph nodes (LNs) in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) or combined hepatocellular-cholangiocarcinoma (cHCC-CCA). We investigated the mapping pattern of nodal recurrence after surgery for iCCA and cHCC-CCA and provided evidence for the nodal CTV definition.

Methods

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with iCCA or cHCC-CCA who underwent surgery between 2010 and 2020. Eligibility criteria included patients pathologically diagnosed with iCCA or cHCC-CCA after surgery and a first recurrent event in regional LNs during follow-up. All recurrent LNs were registered onto reference computed tomography images based on the vascular structures to reconstruct the node mapping. Fifty-three patients were eligible. LN regions were classified into four risk groups.

Results

Hepatic hilar and portal vein-vena cava were the most common recurrent regions, with recurrence rates of 62.3 % and 39.6 % (high-risk regions), respectively. Recurrence rates in the left gastric, diaphragmatic, common hepatic, superior mesenteric vessels, celiac trunk, and paracardial regions ranged from 15.1 % to 30.2 % (intermediate-risk regions). There were fewer recurrences in the para-aortic (16a1, a2, b1) and splenic artery and hilum regions, with rates <10 % (low-risk regions). No LN recurrence was observed in the para-oesophageal or para-aortic region (16b2) (very low-risk regions). Based on node mapping, the CTV should include high- and intermediate-risk regions for pathologically negative LN patients during postoperative radiotherapy. Low-risk regions should be included for pathologically positive LN patients.

Conclusion

We provide evidence for CTV delineation in patients with iCCA and cHCC-CCA based on recurrent LN mapping.

The development and validation of a nomogram-based risk prediction model for mortality among older adults

Objective

This research aims to construct and authenticate a comprehensive predictive model for all-cause mortality, based on a multifaceted array of risk factors.

Methods

The derivation cohort for this study was the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), while the Healthy Ageing and Biomarkers Cohort Study (HABCS) and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used as validation cohorts. Risk factors were filtered using lasso regression, and predictive factors were determined using net reclassification improvement. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to establish the mortality risk prediction equations, and the model's fit was evaluated using a discrimination concordance index (C-index). To evaluate the internal consistency of discrimination and calibration, a 10x10 cross-validation technique was employed. Calibration plots were generated to compare predicted probabilities with observed probabilities. The prediction ability of the equations was demonstrated using nomogram.

Results

The CLHLS (mean age 88.08, n = 37074) recorded 28158 deaths (179683 person-years) throughout the course of an 8-20 year follow-up period. Additionally, there were 1384 deaths in the HABCS (mean age 86.74, n = 2552), and 1221 deaths in the CHARLS (mean age 72.48, n = 4794). The final all-cause mortality model incorporated demographic characteristics like age, sex, and current marital status, as well as functional status indicators including cognitive function and activities of daily living. Additionally, lifestyle factors like past smoking condition and leisure activities including housework, television viewing or radio listening, and gardening work were included. The C-index for the derivation cohort was 0.728 (95% CI: 0.724-0.732), while the external validation results for the CHARS and HABCS cohorts were 0.761 (95% CI: 0.749-0.773) and 0.713 (95% CI: 0.697-0.729), respectively.

Conclusion

This study introduces a reliable, validated, and acceptable mortality risk predictor for older adults in China. These predictive factors have potential applications in public health policy and clinical practice.

Prediction of mortality and overt hepatic encephalopathy undergoing transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt: a retrospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Data on medium- and long-term efficacy and safety of Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) using Viatorr stents in Chinese patients are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the 5-year mortality and the incidence of overt hepatic encephalopathy (OHE) after Viatorr stent insertion, and construct a model to predict post-TIPS OHE preoperatively.

METHODS

One hundred thirty-two patients undergoing Viatorr stent insertion in our institution between August 2016 and December 2019 were included, and randomly divided into training and validation cohort at a 70/30 ratio. Patients were followed up until death or the end date of follow-up (December 31st, 2021). The primary end point was all-cause mortality, and the secondary end points were OHE, variceal rebleeding, recurrent ascites and shunt dysfunction.

RESULTS

The 1-, 2-, 3-, 4- and 5-year cumulative survival rates were 92.4%, 87.9%, 85.3%, 80.2% and 80.2%, respectively. Post-TIPS OHE and Child-Pugh grade were independent prognostic factors. The rates of variceal rebleeding, recurrent ascites, shunt dysfunction and post-TIPS OHE were 9.1%, 14.3%, 5.3% and 28.0%, respectively. The variables of nomogram predicting post-TIPS OHE included age, diabetes and ascites grade. The area under time-dependent receiver operation characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) in training and validation cohort were 0.806 and 0.751, respectively. The decision curve analysis (DCA) showed good net benefit both in training and validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Post-TIPS OHE and Child-Pugh grade are independent prognostic factors for early mortality in cirrhosis patients, thus we construct a simple and convenient prediction model for post-TIPS OHE to identify high-risk patients preoperatively.

Establishment and external validation of prognosis prediction nomogram for patients with distant metastatic intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: based on a large population

BACKGROUND

Most patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) have developed distant metastasis at the time of diagnosis, while there is rear related nomogram to predict the prognosis.

METHODS

Clinical data of patients pathologically diagnosed of ICC with distant metastasis were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database during 2005 to 2019. Finally, patients diagnosed as ICC in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University from 2014 to 2019 were collected for external verification. All data were divided into training cohort and validation cohort in a ratio of 7:3. The nomogram was established based on independent prognostic factors using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUC), the calibration curve and the decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to determine the prediction accuracy of the nomogram.

RESULTS

This study finally included 572 ICC with distant metastasis patients, another 32 patients collected by the author's hospital were used as external verification. Results showed that age, surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors, and nomogram was established. The AUC of predicting 3, 6, 9-month overall survival were 0.866, 0.841 and 0.786. The ROC curves and calibration curves showed that the nomogram had good predictive accuracy, and DCA showed that the nomogram had good clinical applicability.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram has good accuracy in predicting prognosis of DM-ICC patients, which would be of good significance to improve the prognosis of these patients.

Cholangiocarcinoma: Recent Advances in Molecular Pathobiology and Therapeutic Approaches

Cholangiocarcinomas (CCA) pose a complex challenge in oncology due to diverse etiologies, necessitating tailored therapeutic approaches. This review discusses the risk factors, molecular pathology, and current therapeutic options for CCA and explores the emerging strategies encompassing targeted therapies, immunotherapy, novel compounds from natural sources, and modulation of gut microbiota. CCA are driven by an intricate landscape of genetic mutations, epigenetic dysregulation, and post-transcriptional modification, which differs based on geography (e.g., for liver fluke versus non-liver fluke-driven CCA) and exposure to environmental carcinogens (e.g., exposure to aristolochic acid). Liquid biopsy, including circulating cell-free DNA, is a potential diagnostic tool for CCA, which warrants further investigations. Currently, surgical resection is the primary curative treatment for CCA despite the technical challenges. Adjuvant chemotherapy, including cisplatin and gemcitabine, is standard for advanced, unresectable, or recurrent CCA. Second-line therapy options, such as FOLFOX (oxaliplatin and 5-FU), and the significance of radiation therapy in adjuvant, neoadjuvant, and palliative settings are also discussed. This review underscores the need for personalized therapies and demonstrates the shift towards precision medicine in CCA treatment. The development of targeted therapies, including FDA-approved drugs inhibiting FGFR2 gene fusions and IDH1 mutations, is of major research focus. Investigations into immune checkpoint inhibitors have also revealed potential clinical benefits, although improvements in survival remain elusive, especially across patient demographics. Novel compounds from natural sources exhibit anti-CCA activity, while microbiota dysbiosis emerges as a potential contributor to CCA progression, necessitating further exploration of their direct impact and mechanisms through in-depth research and clinical studies. In the future, extensive translational research efforts are imperative to bridge existing gaps and optimize therapeutic strategies to improve therapeutic outcomes for this complex malignancy.

Comparative prognosis and risk assessment in gallbladder neuroendocrine neoplasms versus adenocarcinomas

Background

Gallbladder neuroendocrine neoplasms (GB-NENs) are a rare malignant disease, with most cases diagnosed at advanced stages, often resulting in poor prognosis. However, studies regarding the prognosis of this condition and its comparison with gallbladder adenocarcinomas (GB-ADCs) have yet to yield convincing conclusions.

Methods

We extracted cases of GB-NENs and GB-ADCs from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database in the United States. Firstly, we corrected differences in clinical characteristics between the two groups using propensity score matching (PSM). Subsequently, we visualized and compared the survival outcomes of the two groups using the Kaplan-Meier method. Next, we employed the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and Cox regression to identify prognostic factors for GB-NENs and constructed two nomograms for predicting prognosis. These nomograms were validated with an internal validation dataset from the SEER database and an external validation dataset from a hospital. Finally, we categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups based on their overall survival (OS) scores.

Results

A total of 7,105 patients were enrolled in the study, comprising 287 GB-NENs patients and, 6,818 GB-ADCs patients. There were substantial differences in clinical characteristics between patients, and GB-NENs exhibited a significantly better prognosis. Even after balancing these differences using PSM, the superior prognosis of GB-NENs remained evident. Independent prognostic factors selected through LASSO and Cox regression were age, histology type, first primary malignancy, tumor size, and surgery. Two nomograms for prognosis were developed based on these factors, and their performance was verified from three perspectives: discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability using training, internal validation, and external validation datasets, all of which exhibited excellent validation results. Using a cutoff value of 166.5 for the OS nomogram score, patient mortality risk can be identified effectively.

Conclusion

Patients with GB-NENs have a better overall prognosis compared to those with GB-ADCs. Nomograms for GB-NENs prognosis have been effectively established and validated, making them a valuable tool for assessing the risk of mortality in clinical practice.

Prognostic model of ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer predicted by clinically relevant indicators

PURPOSE

To study the clinicopathological variables connected with disease-free survival (DFS) as well as overall survival (OS) in patients who are ER-positive or HER2-negative and to propose nomograms for predicting individual risk.

METHODS

In this investigation, we examined 585 (development cohort) and 291 (external validation) ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer patients from January 2010 to January 2014. From January 2010 to December 2014, we retrospectively reviewed and analyzed 291 (external validation) and 585 (development cohort) HER2-negative, ER-positive breast cancer patients. Cox regression analysis, both multivariate and univariate, confirmed the independence indicators for OS and DFS.

RESULTS

Using cox regression analysis, both multivariate and univariate, the following variables were combined to predict the DFS of development cohort: pathological stage (HR = 1.391; 95% CI = 1.043-1.855; P value = 0.025), luminal parting (HR = 1.836; 95% CI = 1.142-2.952; P value = .012), and clinical stage (HR = 1.879; 95% CI = 1.102-3.203; P value = 0.021). Endocrine therapy (HR = 3.655; 95% CI = 1.084-12.324; P value = 0.037) and clinical stage (HR = 6.792; 95% CI = 1.672-28.345; P value = 0.009) were chosen as predictors of OS. Furthermore, we generated RS-OS and RS-DFS. According to the findings of Kaplan-Meier curves, patients who are classified as having a low risk have considerably longer DFS and OS durations than patients who are classified as having a high risk.

CONCLUSION

To generate nomograms that predicted DFS and OS, independent predictors of DFS in ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer patients were chosen. The nomograms successfully stratified patients into prognostic categories and worked well in both internal validation and external validation.

Unveiling the Hidden Burden: Estimating All-Cause Mortality Risk in Older Individuals with Type 2 Diabetes

Background

The mortality rate among older persons with diabetes has been steadily increasing, resulting in significant health and economic burdens on both society and individuals. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for estimating the 5-year all-cause mortality risk in older persons with T2D (T2D).

Methods

We obtained data from the National Health and Nutrition Survey (NHANES). A random 7 : 3 split was made between the training and validation sets. By linking the national mortality index up until December 31, 2019, we ensured a minimum of 5 years of follow-up to assess all-cause mortality. A nomogram was developed in the training cohort using a logistic regression model as well as a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model for predicting the 5-year risk of all-cause mortality. Finally, the prediction performance of the nomogram is evaluated using several validation methods.

Results

We constructed a comprehensive prediction model based on the results of multivariate analysis and LASSO binomial regression. These models were then validated using data from the validation cohort. The final model includes four independent predictors: age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and white blood cell count. The C-index values for the training and validation cohorts were 0.748 and 0.762, respectively. The calibration curve demonstrates satisfactory consistency between the two cohorts.

Conclusions

The newly developed nomogram proves to be a valuable tool in accurately predicting the 5-year all-cause mortality risk among older persons with diabetes, providing crucial information for tailored interventions.

Development and validation of web-based nomograms for predicting survival status in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma depending on the surgical status: a SEER database analysis

This study aimed to develop and validate prognostic nomograms that can estimate the probability of 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) as well as cancer-specific survival (CSS) for Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA) patients. Clinical data of 1446 patients diagnosed with ICCA between 2010 and 2017 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed. In both the OS and the CSS group, the training cohort and validation cohort were divided into a 7:3 ratio. Age, sex, AJCC T stage, AJCC N stage, AJCC M stage, surgical status, and tumor grade were selected as independent prognostic risk factors to build the nomograms. To compare the efficacy of predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS rates of the nomogram with the 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system, we evaluated the Harrell's index of concordance (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) in both cohorts. The results showed the nomogram for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS and CSS prediction performed better than the AJCC staging system. In the subgroup analysis for patients could not receive surgery as the primary treatment. We developed two nomograms for predicting the 1-, and 2-year OS and CSS rates following the same analysis procedure. Results indicate that the performance of both nomograms, which contained sex, AJCC T stage, AJCC M stage, chemotherapy, and tumor grade and prognostic factors, was also superior to the AJCC staging system. Meanwhile, four dynamic network-based nomograms were published. The survival analysis showed the survival rate of patients classified as high-risk based on the nomogram score was significantly lower compared to those categorized as low-risk (P < 0.0001). Finally, accurate and convenient nomograms were established to assist clinicians in making more personalized prognosis predictions for ICCA patients.

Prognostic model for survival in patients with neuroendocrine carcinomas of the cervix: SEER database analysis and a single-center retrospective study

OBJECTIVE

Neuroendocrine carcinoma of the cervix (NECC) is extremely rare in clinical practice. This study aimed to methodologically analyze the clinicopathological factors associated with NECC patients and to develop a validated survival prediction model.

METHODS

A total of 535 patients diagnosed with NECC between 2004 and 2016 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database, while 122 patients diagnosed with NECC at Yunnan Cancer Hospital (YCH) from 2006 to 2019 were also recruited. Patients from the SEER database were divided into a training cohort (n = 376) and a validation cohort (n = 159) in a 7:3 ratio for the construction and internal validation of the nomogram. External validation was performed in a cohort at YCH. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival analysis, the Log-rank method test was used for univariate analysis of prognostic influences, and the Cox regression model was used for multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

The 3-year and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates for patients with NECC in SEER were 43.6% and 39.7%, respectively. In the training cohort, multivariate analysis showed independent prognostic factors for NECC patients including race, tumor size, distant metastasis, stage, and chemotherapy (p<0.05). For extended application in other cohorts, a nomogram including four factors without race was subsequently created. The consistency index (C-index) of the nomogram predicting survival was 0.736, which was well-validated in the validation cohorts (0.746 for the internal validation cohort and 0.765 for the external validation cohort). In both the training and validation cohorts, the 3-year survival rates predicted by the nomogram were comparable to the actual ones. We then succeeded in dividing patients with NECC into high- and low-risk groups concerning OS using the nomogram we developed. Besides, univariate analysis showed that chemotherapy ≥4 cycles may improve the OS of patients at YCH with NECC.

CONCLUSION

We successfully constructed a nomogram that precisely predicts the OS for patients with NECC based on the SEER database and a large single-center retrospective cohort. The visualized and practical model can distinguish high-risk patients for recurrence and death who may benefit from clinical trials of boost therapy effectively. We also found that patients who received more than 4 cycles of chemotherapy acquired survival benefits than those who received less than 4 cycles.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for the risk of distal metastasis in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a real-world study

BACKGROUND

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a highly malignant and easily metastatic bile duct tumor with poor prognosis. We aimed at studying the associated risk factors affecting distal metastasis of CCA and using nomogram to guide clinicians in predicting distal metastasis of CCA.

METHODS

Based on inclusion and exclusion criteria, 345 patients with CCA were selected from the Fifth Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital and were divided into distal metastases (N = 21) and non-distal metastases (N = 324). LASSO regression models were used to screen for relevant parameters and to compare basic clinical information between the two groups of patients. Risk factors for distal metastasis were identified based on the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The nomogram was established based on the results of multivariate logistic regression, and we drawn the corresponding correlation heat map. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calibration plots. The utility of the model in clinical applications was illustrated by applying decision curve analysis (DCA), and overall survival(OS) analysis was performed using the method of Kaplan-meier.

RESULTS

This study identified 4 independent risk factors for distal metastasis of CCA, including CA199, cholesterol, hypertension and margin invasion, and developed the nomogram based on this. The result of validation showed that the model had significant accuracy for diagnosis with the area under ROC (AUC) of 0.882 (95% CI: 0.843-0.914). Calibration plots and DCA showed that the model had high clinical utility.

CONCLUSIONS

This study established and validated a model of nomogram for predicting distal metastasis in patients with CCA. Based on this, it could guide clinicians to make better decisions and provide more accurate prognosis and treatment for patients with CCA.

Preoperative MRI features predicting very early recurrence of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma after R0 resection: a comparison with the AJCC 8th edition staging system

PURPOSE

This study aimed to establish a nomogram based on preoperative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features to predict the very early recurrence (VER, less than 6 months) of intrahepatic mass-forming cholangiocarcinoma (IMCC) after R0 resection.

METHODS

This study enrolled a group of 193 IMCC patients from our institution between March 2010 and January 2022. Patients were allocated into the development cohort (n = 137) and the validation cohort (n = 56), randomly, and the preoperative clinical and MRI features were collected. Univariate and multivariate stepwise logistic regression assessments were adopted to assess predictors of VER. Nomogram was constructed and certificated in the validation cohort. The performance of the prediction nomogram was evaluated by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. The performance of the nomogram was compared with the T stage of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 8th edition staging system.

RESULTS

Fifty-three patients (27.5%) experienced VER of the tumor and 140 patients (72.5%) with non-VER, during the follow-up period. After multivariate stepwise logistic regression, number of lesions, diffuse hypoenhancement on arterial phase, necorsis and suspicious lymph nodes were independently associated with VER. The nomogram demonstrated significantly higher area under the curve (AUC) of 0.813 than T stage (AUC = 0.666, P = 0.006) in the development cohort, whereas in the validation cohort, the nomogram showed better discrimination performance, with an AUC of 0.808 than T stage (0.705) with no significantly difference (P = 0.230). Decision curve analysis reflected the clinical net benefit of the nomogram.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram based on preoperative MRI features is a reliable tool to predict VER for patients with IMCC after R0 resection. This nomogram will be helpful to improve survival prediction and individualized treatment.

Nomograms predict survival in elderly women with triple-negative breast cancer: A SEER population-based study

BACKGROUND

The effective treatment of breast cancer in elderly patients remains a major challenge.

OBJECTIVE

To construct a nomogram affecting the overall survival of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) and establish a survival risk prediction model.

METHODS

A total of 5317 TPBC patients with negative expression of estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR) and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) who were diagnosed and received systematic treatment from 2010 to 2015 were collected from the American Cancer Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database. They were randomly divided into training set (n= 3721) and validation set (n= 1596). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify prognostic features, and a nomogram was established to predict the probability of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year OS and BCSS. We used consistency index (C-index), calibration curve, area under the curve (AUC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) to evaluate the predictive performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.

RESULTS

The C-indices of the nomograms for OS and BCSS in the training cohort were 0.797 and 0.825, respectively, whereas those in the validation cohort were 0.795 and 0.818, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves had higher sensitivity at all specificity values as compared with the Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) system. The calibration plot revealed a satisfactory relationship between survival rates and predicted outcomes in both the training and validation cohorts. DCA demonstrated that the nomogram had clinical utility when compared with the TNM staging system.

CONCLUSION

This study provides information on population-based clinical characteristics and prognostic factors for patients with triple-negative breast cancer, and constructs a reliable and accurate prognostic nomogram.

Impact of sarcopenia on postoperative outcomes after hepatectomy in older patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: A multicentre cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Sarcopenia is associated with poor prognosis, but its role in older patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is unclear. We aimed to evaluate the impact of sarcopenia on the prognosis of older patients with ICC undergoing hepatectomy.

METHODS

A total of 363 patients with ICC following hepatectomy from 2015 to 2021 were retrospectively reviewed at five institutions. Sarcopenia was evaluated using skeletal muscle index by computed tomography images. Patients were divided into four subgroups according to sarcopenia and age. Postoperative outcomes including complication, overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated. Risk factors were identified through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

302 patients were included in the analysis. The median age was 63 years and there were 128 patients (42.4%) aged over 65 years. 192 patients (63.6%) were diagnosed with sarcopenia, while 180 patients (59.6%) experienced myosteatosis. Older patients experienced a higher incidence of sarcopenia and myosteatosis, and worse postoperative outcomes than younger patients. In the subgroup of patients with sarcopenia, older patients experienced a significant shorter OS than younger patients, which was not observed in patients without sarcopenia. According to the multivariate Cox regression analysis, lymphatic metastasis (p < .001), blood transfusion (p = .004), low serum albumin (p = .051), sarcopenia (p = .024), and myosteatosis (p = .004) were identified as independent risk factors of OS in older patients, meanwhile tumour size (p = .013) and lymphatic metastasis (p < .001) were independent risk factors of RFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Sarcopenia and myosteatosis have a significant adverse impact on postoperative outcomes in older patients with ICC undergoing hepatectomy.

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma initially diagnosed as adenocarcinoma of unknown primary with hepatoduodenal ligament lymph node metastases: A case report

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) with regional lymph node metastases, which lacks a well-delineated liver mass, may be misdiagnosed as a carcinoma of unknown primary (CUP) origin. The present study reports the case of a 69-year-old man initially diagnosed with CUP, who was incidentally found to have abdominal lymphadenopathy during ultrasonography (US). The clinical course from the time of lymphadenectomy and CUP diagnosis to iCCA detection after long-term follow-up is reported. A patient with a history of hypertensive renal disease presented with an incidental finding of enlarged abdominal lymph nodes in the perihepatic region on US. Abdominal contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CT) scan and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed two enlarged lymph nodes in the hepatoduodenal ligament. Exploratory laparotomy and lymphadenectomy were performed for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes, respectively. Poorly differentiated metastatic adenocarcinoma positive for cytokeratin 7 and negative for cytokeratin 20 was identified in two of the 22 lymph nodes. Postoperatively, a positron emission tomography/CT (PET/CT) scan was performed, which failed to locate the primary site. The diagnosis of CUP was confirmed based on clinical, radiological and histopathological characteristics. A sequential abdominal CT scan 48 months after lymphadenectomy revealed a faintly enhancing, intraductal polypoid mass with localized ductal dilatation in liver segment 3. MRI and PET/CT confirmed a mass in the left lobe of the liver. US-guided percutaneous needle biopsy confirmed the presence of moderately differentiated adenocarcinoma. The patient refused surgical treatment because of general weakness caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 infection. The patient received radical radiotherapy and underwent left hepatectomy after recovery of their performance status. Histopathological examination of the surgical specimen demonstrated prevailing fibrosis and mucin accumulation, with scattered cancer cells observed focally in the resected liver specimen owing to the effect of the radiotherapy. Consequently, a definitive diagnosis of primary adenocarcinoma of the intrahepatic bile duct was confirmed. The present report may improve understanding of the pathophysiology and clinical progression of iCCA, with a specific focus on the intraductal growth subtype.

Prediction of Survival Prognosis for Spinal Metastasis From Cancer of Unknown Primary: Derivation and Validation of a Nomogram Model

STUDY DESIGN

Retrospective and prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES

Survival estimation is necessary in the decision-making process for treatment in patients with spinal metastasis from cancer of unknown primary (SMCUP). We aimed to develop a novel survival prediction system and compare its accuracy with that of existing survival models.

METHODS

A retrospective derivation cohort of 268 patients and a prospective validation cohort of 105 patients with SMCUP were performed. Univariate and multivariable survival analysis were used to generate independently prognostic variables. A nomogram model for survival prediction was established by integrating these independent predictors based on the size of the significant variables' β regression coefficient. Then, the model was subjected to bootstrap validation with calibration curves and concordance index (C-index). Finally, predictive accuracy was compared with Tomita, revised Tokuhashi and SORG score by the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The survival prediction model included six independent prognostic factors, including pathology (P < .001), visceral metastases (P < .001), Frankel score (P < .001), weight loss (P = .005), hemoglobin (P = .001) and serum tumor markers (P < .001). Calibration curve of the model showed good agreement between predicted and actual mortality risk in 6-, 12-, and 24-month estimation in derivation and validation cohorts. The C-index was .775 in the derivation cohort and .771 in the validation cohort. ROC curve analysis showed that the current model had the best accuracy for SMCUP survival estimation amongst 4 models.

CONCLUSIONS

The novel nomogram system can be applied in survival prediction for SMCUP patients, and furtherly be used to give individualized therapeutic suggestions based on patients' prognosis.

Survival Predictive Nomograms for Non-Surgical Brain Metastases Patients From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Receiving Radiotherapy: A Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

A high number of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients with brain metastasis who have not had surgery often have a negative outlook. Radiotherapy remains a most common and effective method. Nomograms were developed to forecast the cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) in NSCLC individuals with nonoperative brain metastases who underwent radiotherapy.

METHODS

Information was gathered from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database about patients diagnosed with NSCLC who had brain metastases not suitable for surgery. Nomograms were created and tested using multivariate Cox regression models to forecast CSS and OS at intervals of 1, 2, and 3 years.

RESULTS

The research involved 3413 individuals diagnosed with NSCLC brain metastases who had undergone radiotherapy but had not experienced surgery. These participants were randomly divided into two categories. The analysis revealed that gender, age, ethnicity, marital status, tumor location, tumor laterality, tumor grade, histology, T stage, N stage, chemotherapy, tumor size, lung metastasis, bone metastasis, and liver metastasis were significant independent predictors for OS and CSS. The C-index for the training set for predicting OS was .709 (95% CI, .697-.721), and for the validation set, it was .705 (95% CI, .686-.723), respectively. The C-index for predicting CSS was .710 (95% CI, .697-.722) in the training set and .703 (95% CI, .684-.722) in the validation set, respectively. The nomograms model, as suggested by the impressive C-index, exhibits outstanding differentiation ability. Moreover, the ROC and calibration curves reveal its commendable precision and distinguishing potential.

CONCLUSIONS

For the first time, highly accurate and reliable nomograms were developed to predict OS and CSS in NSCLC patients with non-surgical brain metastases, who have undergone radiotherapy treatment. The nomograms may assist in tailoring counseling strategies and choosing the most effective treatment method.

Analysis of Related Risk Factors and Prognostic Factors of Gastric Cancer with Liver Metastasis: A SEER and External Validation Based Study

Background

Gastric cancer (GC) has a poor prognosis, particularly in patients with liver metastasis (LM). This study aims to identify relevant factors associated with the occurrence of LM in GC patients and factors influencing the prognosis of gastric cancer with liver metastasis (GCLM) patients, in addition to developing diagnostic and prognostic nomograms specifically.

Patients and Methods

Overall, 6184 training data were from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2011 to 2015. 1527 validation data were from our hospital between January 2018 and December 2022. Logistic regression was used to identify the risk factors associated with the occurrence of LM in GC patients, Cox regression was used to confirm the prognostic factors of GCLM patients. Two nomogram models were established to predict the risk and overall survival (OS) of patients with GCLM. The performance of the two models was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC), concordance index (C-index), and calibration curves.

Results

A nomogram included five independent factors from multivariate logistic regression: sex, lymph node removal, chemotherapy, T stage and N stage were constructed to calculate the possibility of LM. Internal and external verifications of AUC were 0.786 and 0.885, respectively. The other nomogram included four independent factors from multivariate Cox regression: surgery at primary site, surgery at other site, chemotherapy, and N stage were constructed to predict OS. C-index for internal and external validations were 0.714 and 0.702, respectively, and the calibration curves demonstrated the robust discriminative ability of the models.

Conclusion

Based on the SEER database and validation data, we defined effective nomogram models to predict risk and OS in patients with GCLM. They have important value in clinical decision-making and personalized treatment.

Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Risk and Prognosis in Salivary Gland Carcinoma Patient with Distant Metastases

Background: Salivary gland carcinoma (SGC) patients with distant metastasis (DM) are rare, and understanding this disease is insufficient. Nomograms can predict the prognostic probability of patients, while few studies have examined diagnostic and prognostic factors in SGC patients with DM. The purpose of this study was to establish and validate the risk and prognostic nomograms of SGC patients with DM. Methods: Based on the SEER database, we analyzed the data of SGC patients between 2004 and 2015. Logistic regression analyses and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify risk and prognostic factors for DM in SGC patients. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) value and likelihood ratio test, the best-fitting model was selected to build risk and prognostic nomograms, and the results were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and Kaplan-Meier (K-M) survival curves. ROC curves were also used to compare the nomograms with the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system. Results: 7418 SGC patients were included in the study, and 307 (4.14%) of them were diagnosed with DM. This study identified that there are variables (age ≥ 80, no-parotid gland primary site, histologic type of mucoepidermoid carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma, T stage ≥ T2, N staged ≥ N1, histologic grade ≥ III, and tumor size ≥ 41 mm) associated with the occurrence of DM in SGC patients. Therefore, we constructed diagnostic and prognostic nomograms after incorporating these variables. ROC curves illustrated the better predictive efficacy of 2 nomograms over the AJCC staging system. DCA curves, calibration curves, and K-M survival curves showed that 2 nomograms can accurately predict the occurrence and prognosis of DM among SGC patients in training and validation sets. Conclusion: It was shown that the nomograms were highly discriminative in predicting the diagnosis and prognosis of SGC patients with DM, and could identify high-risk patients, thereby providing SGC patients with individualized treatment plans.

CS-iCCA, A New Clinically Based Staging System for Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: Establishment and External Validation

INTRODUCTION

Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is a primary liver malignancy with poor prognosis. Current prognostic methods are most accurate for patients with surgically resectable disease. However, a significant proportion of patients with iCCA are not surgical candidates. We aimed to develop a generalizable staging system based on clinical variables to determine prognosis of all patients with iCCA.

METHODS

The derivation cohort included 436 patients with iCCA seen between 2000 and 2011. For external validation, 249 patients with iCCA seen from 2000 to 2014 were enrolled. Survival analysis was performed to identify prognostic predictors. All-cause mortality was the primary end point.

RESULTS

Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group status, tumor number, tumor size, metastasis, albumin, and carbohydrate antigen 19-9 were incorporated into a 4-stage algorithm. Kaplan-Meier estimates for 1-year survival were 87.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.1-99.7), 72.7% (95% CI 63.4-83.4), 48.0% (95% CI 41.2-56.0), and 16% (95% CI 11-23.5), respectively, for stages I, II, III, and IV. Univariate analysis yielded significant differences in risk of death for stages II (hazard ratio [HR] 1.71; 95% CI 1.0-2.8), III (HR 3.32; 95% CI 2.07-5.31), and IV (HR 7.44; 95% CI 4.61-12.01) compared with stage I (reference). Concordance indices showed the new staging system was superior to the TNM staging for predicting mortality in the derivation cohort, P < 0.0001. In the validation cohort, however, the difference between the 2 staging systems was not significant.

DISCUSSION

The proposed independently validated staging system uses nonhistopathologic data to successfully stratify patients into 4 stages. This staging system has better prognostic accuracy compared with the TNM staging and can assist physicians and patients in treatment of iCCA.

Lymph Node Dissection in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma: a Critical and Updated Review of the Literature

BACKGROUND

Lymphatic spread of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (iCCA) is common and negatively impacts survival. However, the precise role of lymph node dissection (LND) in oncologic outcomes for patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma remains to be established.

METHODS

Updated evidence on the preoperative diagnosis and prognostic value of lymph node metastasis is reviewed, as well as the potential benefit of LND in patients with iCCA.

RESULTS

The ability to accurately determine nodal status for iCCA with current imaging modalities is equivocal. LND has prognostic value for both survival and disease recurrence. However, execution rates of LND are highly varied in the literature, ranging from 26.9 to 100%. At least 6 lymph nodes should be examined from nodal stations of the hepatoduodenal ligament and hepatic artery as well as based on the location of the primary tumor. Neoadjuvant therapies may be beneficial if lymph node metastases at diagnosis are suspected. Surgeons performing a minimally invasive approach should focus on increasing LND rates and harvesting ≥ 6 lymph nodes. Lymph node negativity is required in patients with iCCA being considered for liver transplantation under investigational protocols.

CONCLUSION

Despite an upward trend in the LND rate, the reality is that only 10% of patients with iCCA receive an adequate LND. This review underscores the importance of routinely increasing the rate of adequate LND in these patients in order to achieve accurate staging, appropriately select patients for adjuvant therapy, and improve the prognosis of clinical outcomes. While prospective data is lacking, the therapeutic impact of LND remains unknown.

Laparoscopic versus open liver resection for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a systematic review of propensity score-matched studies

Outcomes of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) versus open LR (OLR) for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICCA) are heterogeneous. We aimed to compare LLR and OLR for ICCA based on propensity-score-matched (PSM) studies. Two reviewers independently searched the online databases (PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library) for PSM studies that compared LLR and OLR for ICCA. The Ottawa-Newcastle Quality Assessment Scale with a cutoff of ≥ 7 was used to define higher-quality literature. Only 'high-quality' PSM analyses of the English language that met all our inclusion criteria were considered. A total of ten PSM trials were included in the analyses. Compared with OLR, although the lymph node dissection (LND) (RR = 0.67) and major hepatectomy rates were lower in the LLR group (RR = 0.87), higher R0 resections (RR = 1.05) and lower major complications (Clavien-Dindo grade ≥ III) (RR = 0.72) were also observed in the LLR group. In addition, patients in the LLR group showed less estimated blood loss (MD = - 185.52 ml) and shorter hospital stays as well (MD = - 2.75 days). Further analysis found the overall survival (OS) (HR = 0.91), disease-free survival (DFS) (HR = 0.95), and recurrence-free survival (HR = 0.80) for patients with ICCA after LLR were all comparable to those of OLR. LLR for selected ICCA patients may be technically safe and feasible, providing short-term benefits and achieving oncological efficacy without compromising the long-term survival of the patients.

A nomogram for the prediction of survival for colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma after surgery: A population-based study

The aim was to construct and verify a nomogram-based assessment of cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma after surgery. Patients were collected from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program between 2004 and 2015. Independent prognostic indicators were determined in the training cohort by Cox regression model. We identified 2217 eligible patients, who were further categorized into the training set (n = 1693) as well as the validation set (n = 524). Multivariate analysis revealed that age at diagnosis, gender, grade, tumor size, T stage, N stage, and M stage were independent predictive indicators. Then, the above 7 predictive factors were incorporated into a nomogram model to assess CSS, which showed good calibration and discrimination capacities in both sets. Both internal and external calibration plot diagrams revealed that the actual results were consistent with the predicted outcomes. The time-independent area under the curves for 3-year and 5-year CSS in the nomogram were larger than American Joint Committee on Cancer and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results summary stage system. Moreover, decision curve analysis indicated the clinical utility of the nomogram. The nomogram demonstrated favorable predictive accuracy of survival in colorectal signet ring cell carcinoma patients after surgery, which should be further confirmed before clinical implementation.

Development and external validation of dual online tools for prognostic assessment in elderly patients with high-grade glioma: a comprehensive study using SEER and Chinese cohorts

Background

Elderly individuals diagnosed with high-grade gliomas frequently experience unfavorable outcomes. We aimed to design two web-based instruments for prognosis to predict overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS), assisting clinical decision-making.

Methods

We scrutinized data from the SEER database on 5,245 elderly patients diagnosed with high-grade glioma between 2000-2020, segmenting them into training (3,672) and validation (1,573) subsets. An additional external validation cohort was obtained from our institution. Prognostic determinants were pinpointed using Cox regression analyses, which facilitated the construction of the nomogram. The nomogram's predictive precision for OS and CSS was gauged using calibration and ROC curves, the C-index, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Based on risk scores, patients were stratified into high or low-risk categories, and survival disparities were explored.

Results

Using multivariate Cox regression, we identified several prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with high-grade gliomas, including age, tumor location, size, surgical technique, and therapies. Two digital nomograms were formulated anchored on these determinants. For OS, the C-index values in the training, internal, and external validation cohorts were 0.734, 0.729, and 0.701, respectively. We also derived AUC values for 3-, 6-, and 12-month periods. For CSS, the C-index values for the training and validation groups were 0.733 and 0.727, with analogous AUC metrics. The efficacy and clinical relevance of the nomograms were corroborated via ROC curves, calibration plots, and DCA for both cohorts.

Conclusion

Our investigation pinpointed pivotal risk factors in elderly glioma patients, leading to the development of an instrumental prognostic nomogram for OS and CSS. This instrument offers invaluable insights to optimize treatment strategies.