Predictors, Prognosis, and Management of New Clinically Important Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery: A Prospective Cohort Study

Catecholamine Vasopressors and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery: A Prospective Observational Study

Background

Catecholamine vasopressors are commonly used for intra- or post-operative hypotension for cardiac surgery, which have a side effect of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial ischemia. However, it is not entirely clear whether catecholamine vasopressors increase the risk of new-onset AF after noncardiac surgery.

Aim

The aim of this study was to analyze the association between the use of catecholamine vasopressors and the risk of developing new-onset AF after noncardiac surgery.

Methods

In this prospective trial, available data from eligible elderly individuals receiving noncardiac surgery at a single center from November 2022 to January 2024 were gathered. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to balance patient baseline characteristics and to control for confounders. To determine the association between catecholamine vasopressors and the risk of new-onset AF, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed.

Results

A total of 6000 subjects were included in this study (mean [SD] age, 70.73 [6.37] years; 910 [50.9%] males). After PSM, the patients were stratified into catecholamine vasopressor (n = 357) and comparator groups (n = 1432). A total of 18/357 patients in the catecholamine vasopressor group developed AF, and 25/1432 patients in the comparator group developed AF (incidence rate, 5.0% vs 1.7%). Compared with the comparator group, the catecholamine vasopressor group had an increased risk of new-onset AF (aOR, 2.77; 95% CI, 1.28-5.89). Some sensitivity analyses also revealed consistent findings of increased new-onset AF risk associated with catecholamine vasopressor treatment.

Conclusion

The findings from this study suggest that catecholamine vasopressor treatment is associated with an increased risk of new-onset AF and may help physicians select a modest medication for patients while also assessing the risk of new-onset AF.

Temporal Trends in the Management Practices of Clinically Important Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery

Background

Clinically important perioperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common cardiac complication after noncardiac surgery. Little is known about how patients with POAF are managed acutely and whether practices have changed over time.

Methods

We conducted an observational substudy of patients who had POAF, were at elevated cardiovascular risk, and were enrolled in the PeriOperative Ischemic Evaluation (POISE)-1, 2 and 3 trials between 2002 and 2021. POAF was defined as new, clinically important atrial fibrillation occurring within 30 days after surgery. We assessed the use of rhythm-control and anticoagulation treatment in response to POAF, at hospital discharge and at 30 days after surgery. We assessed for temporal trends using multivariable logistic regression.

Results

Of the 27,896 patients included, 545 (1.9%) developed clinically important POAF. Patients received rhythm-control treatment in 48.6% of cases. The level of use of rhythm-control treatment increased over the course of the trials (POISE-1 vs POISE-2 vs POISE-3; 40.9% vs 49.5% vs 59.1%). A later randomization date was associated independently with use of rhythm-control treatment (odds ratio, 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.09). Anticoagulation treatment was prescribed in 21% of POAF cases. The level of anticoagulation treatement use was higher in POISE-3, compared to that in the 2 previous trials (POISE-1 vs POISE-2 vs POISE-3-16.4% vs 16.5% vs 33.6%). A later randomization date was associated independently with use of anticoagulation treatment (odds ratio, 1.06 per year; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.11).

Conclusions

Despite the absence of randomized controlled trials, the level of use of rhythm-control and anticoagulation treatment for POAF is rising. High-quality trials are needed urgently to determine whether these interventions are safe and effective in this population.

Impact of preoperative inflammatory indices and postoperative pneumonia on postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with non-small cell lung cancer: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to evaluate the impact of preoperative inflammatory indices and postoperative pneumonia (POP) on postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

METHODS

All consecutive patients who underwent pulmonary resection at our hospital (January 2016-October 2019) were enrolled. Preoperative inflammatory indices, demographic data, surgical details, and postoperative conditions were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors associated with POAF were also conducted.

RESULTS

Among the 382 patients included in the study, 32 (8.38%) developed POAF. Compared to non-POAF patients, POAF patients had greater incidence of POP (P = 0.09). Approximately 31 patients (96.9%) developed atrial fibrillation within three days after surgery. The POAF group had a significantly greater mean age (68.94 years) than did the non-POAF group (63 years) (P = 0.002). Additionally, compared to non-POAF patients, POAF patients exhibited an increased number of resected mediastinal lymph nodes (P < 0.001) and mediastinal lymph node stations (P < 0.001).The POAF group also had a greater intraoperative blood volume (P = 0.006), longer surgical duration (P = 0.022), and greater drainage volume (P = 0.003). IA/B stage (P < 0.001) and IIIA/B stage(P < 0.001), and lobectomy resection (P = 0.008) and wedge resection (P = 0.023) were also associated with POAF. Compared to those in the non-POAF group, the POAF group had longer postoperative hospital stays (10.54 days vs. 9 days; P = 0.001) and longer drainage times (7 days vs. 5 days; P = 0.004). Multivariate analysis revealed age, POP, and stage IIIA/B as independent influencing factors of POAF in NSCLC patients.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative inflammatory indices were not significantly associated with POAF, but age, POP, and stage IIIA/B were identified as independent influencing factors. Advanced-stage NSCLC patients may have a greater susceptibility to POAF than early-stage patients, although further validation is needed. Additionally, POAF was linked to a longer postoperative hospital stay.

Development and external validation of a novel model for predicting new clinically important atrial fibrillation after thoracoscopic anatomical lung cancer surgery: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

New clinically important postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is the most common arrhythmia after thoracoscopic anatomical lung cancer surgery and is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The full spectrum of predictors remains unclear, and effective assessment tools are lacking. This study aimed to develop and externally validate a novel model for predicting new clinically important POAF.

METHODS

This retrospective study included 14 074 consecutive patients who received thoracoscopic anatomical lung cancer surgery from January 2016 to December 2018 in Shanghai Chest Hospital. Based on the split date of 1 January 2018, we selected 8717 participants for the training cohort and 5357 participants for the testing cohort. For external validation, we pooled 2941 consecutive patients who received this surgical treatment from July 2016 to July 2021 in Shanghai Ruijin Hospital. Independent predictors were used to develop a model and internally validated using a bootstrap-resampling approach. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) and Brier score were performed to assess the model discrimination and calibration. The decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to evaluate clinical validity and net benefit. New clinically important POAF was defined as a new-onset of POAF that causes symptoms or requires treatment.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis suggested that age, hypertension, preoperative treatment, clinical tumor stage, intraoperative arrhythmia and transfusion, and operative time were independent predictors of new clinically important POAF. These seven candidate predictors were used to develop a nomogram, which showed a concordance statistic (C-statistic) value of 0.740 and good calibration (Brier score; 0.025). Internal validation revealed similarly good discrimination (C-statistic, 0.736; 95% CI: 0.705-0.768) and calibration. The decision curve analysis showed positive net benefits with the threshold risk range of 0-100%. C-statistic value and Brier score were 0.717 and 0.028 in the testing cohort, and 0.768 and 0.012 in the external validation cohort, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified seven predictors of new clinically important POAF, among which preoperative treatment, intraoperative arrhythmia, and operative time were rarely reported. The established and externally validated model has good performance and clinical usefulness, which may promote the application of prevention and treatment in high-risk patients, and reduce the development and related adverse outcomes of this event.

Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation and One-year Clinical Outcomes in Patients Following Major Emergency Abdominal Surgery

The prevalence and impact of perioperative atrial fibrillation (AF) during an admission for major emergency abdominal surgery are sparsely examined. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the 30-day and 1-year outcomes (AF-related hospitalization, stroke, and all-cause mortality) in patients with and without perioperative AF to their major emergency abdominal surgery. All patients without a history of AF who underwent major emergency abdominal surgery from 2000 to 2019 and discharged alive were identified using Danish nationwide registries. Patients with and without perioperative AF (defined as new-onset AF during the index hospitalization) were matched 1:4 on age, gender, year of surgery, and type of surgery. The cumulative incidences and hazard ratios of outcomes were assessed using a multivariable Cox regression analysis comparing patients with and without perioperative AF. A total of 2% of patients were diagnosed with perioperative AF. The matched cohort comprised 792 and 3,168 patients with and without perioperative AF, respectively (median age 78 years [twenty-fifth to seventy-fifth percentile 70 to 83 years]; 43% men). Cumulative incidences of AF-related hospitalizations, stroke, and mortality 1 year after discharge were 30% versus 3.4%, 3.4% versus 2.7%, and 35% versus 22% in patients with and without perioperative AF, respectively. The 30-day outcomes were similarly elevated among patients with perioperative AF. Perioperative AF during an admission for major emergency abdominal surgery was associated with higher 30-day and 1-year rates of AF-related hospitalization and mortality and similar rates of stroke. These findings suggest that perioperative AF is a prognostic marker of increased morbidity and mortality in relation to major emergency abdominal surgery and warrants further investigation.

Atrial fibrillation in vascular surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis on prevalence, incidence and outcome implications

AIMS

To know the prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF), as well as the incidence of postoperative AF (POAF) in vascular surgery for arterial diseases and its outcome implications.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis following the PRISMA statement.

RESULTS

After the selection process, we analyzed 44 records (30 for the prevalence of AF history and 14 for the incidence of POAF).The prevalence of history of AF was 11.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 1-13.3] with high heterogeneity (I2 = 100%). Prevalence was higher in the case of endovascular procedures. History of AF was associated with a worse outcome in terms of in-hospital death [odds ratio (OR) 3.29; 95% CI 2.66-4.06; P < 0.0001; I2 94%] or stroke (OR 1.61; 95% CI 1.39-1.86; P < 0.0001; I2 91%).The pooled incidence of POAF was 3.6% (95% CI 2-6.4) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 100%). POAF risk was associated with older age (mean difference 4.67 years, 95% CI 2.38-6.96; P = 0.00007). The risk of POAF was lower in patients treated with endovascular procedures as compared with an open surgical procedure (OR 0.35; 95% CI 0.13-0.91; P = 0.03; I2 = 61%).

CONCLUSIONS

In the setting of vascular surgery for arterial diseases a history of AF is found overall in 11.5% of patients, more frequently in the case of endovascular procedures, and is associated with worse outcomes in terms of short-term mortality and stroke.The incidence of POAF is overall 3.6%, and is lower in patients treated with an endovascular procedure as compared with open surgery procedures. The need for oral anticoagulants for preventing AF-related stroke should be evaluated with randomized clinical trials.

Characteristics of preoperative atrial fibrillation in geriatric patients with hip fracture and construction of a clinical prediction model: a retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Atrial fibrillation is the most common atrial arrhythmia in the perioperative period and is associated with prolonged hospital stay, increased costs, and increased mortality. However, there are few data on the predictors and incidence of preoperative atrial fibrillation in hip fracture patients. Our aim was to identify predictors of preoperative atrial fibrillation and to propose a valid clinical prediction model.

METHODS

Predictor variables included demographic and clinical variables. LASSO regression analyzes were performed to identify predictors of preoperative atrial fibrillation, and models were constructed and presented as nomograms. Area under the curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to examine the discriminative power, calibration, and clinical efficacy of the predictive models. Bootstrapping was used for validation.

RESULTS

A total of 1415 elderly patients with hip fractures were analyzed. Overall, 7.1% of patients had preoperative atrial fibrillation, and they were at significant risk for thromboembolic events. Patients with preoperative AF had a significantly longer delay in surgery than those without preoperative atrial fibrillation (p < 0.05). Predictors for preoperative atrial fibrillation were hypertension (OR 1.784, 95% CI 1.136-2.802, p < 0.05), C-reactive protein at admission (OR 1.329, 95% CI 1.048-1.662, p < 0.05), systemic inflammatory response index at admission (OR 2.137, 95% CI, 1.678-2.721 p < 0.05), Age-Adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index (OR 1.542, 95% CI 1.326-1.794, p < 0.05), low potassium(OR 2.538, 95% CI 1.623-3.968, p < 0.05), anemia(OR 1.542, 95% CI 1.326-1.794, p < 0.05). Good discrimination and calibration effect of the model was showed. Interval validation could still achieve the C-index value of 0.799. DCA demonstrated this nomogram has good clinical utility.

CONCLUSION

This model has a good predictive effect on preoperative atrial fibrillation in elderly patients with hip fractures, which can help to better plan clinical evaluation.

Rationale and design of the colchicine for the prevention of perioperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery (COP-AF) trial

BACKGROUND

Perioperative atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial injury after noncardiac surgery (MINS) are common complications after noncardiac surgery. Inflammation has been implicated in the pathogenesis of both disorders. The COP-AF trial tests the hypothesis that colchicine reduces the incidence of perioperative AF and MINS in patients undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The 'COlchicine for the Prevention of Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation' (COP-AF) trial is an international, blinded, randomized trial that compares colchicine to placebo in patients aged at least 55 years and undergoing major noncardiac thoracic surgery with general anesthesia. Exclusion criteria include a history of AF and a contraindication to colchicine (eg, severe renal dysfunction). Oral colchicine at a dose of 0.5 mg or matching placebo is given within 4 hours before surgery. Thereafter, patients receive colchicine 0.5 mg or placebo twice daily for a total of 10 days. The 2 independent co-primary outcomes are clinically important perioperative AF (including atrial flutter) and MINS during 14 days of follow-up. The main safety outcomes are sepsis or infection and non-infectious diarrhea. We aim to enroll 3,200 patients from approximately 40 sites across 11 countries to have at least 80% power for the independent evaluation of the 2 co-primary outcomes. The COP-AF main results are expected in 2023.

CONCLUSIONS

COP-AF is a large randomized and blinded trial designed to determine whether colchicine reduces the risk of perioperative AF or MINS in patients who have major noncardiac thoracic surgery.

Propofol anesthesia decreases the incidence of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation compared to desflurane in patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery: A retrospective single-center study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) increases postoperative morbidity, mortality, and length of hospital stay. Propofol is reported to modulate atrial electrophysiology and the cardiac autonomic nervous system. Therefore, we retrospectively examined whether propofol suppresses POAF in patients undergoing video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) compared to desflurane.

METHODS

We retrospectively recruited adult patients who underwent VATS during the period from January 2011 to May 2018 in an academic university hospital. Between continuous propofol and desflurane administration during anesthetic maintenance, we investigated the incidence of new-onset POAF (within 48 hours after surgery) before and after propensity score matching.

RESULTS

Of the 482 patients, 344 received propofol, and 138 received desflurane during anesthetic maintenance. The incidence of POAF in the propofol group was less than that in the desflurane group (4 [1.2%] vs. 8 patients [5.8%], odds ratio [OR]; 0.161, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.040-0.653, p = 0.011) in the present study population. After adjustment for propensity score matching (n = 254, n = 127 each group), the incidence of POAF was still less in propofol group than desflurane group (1 [0.8%] vs. 8 patients [6.3%], OR; 0.068, 95% CI: 0.007-0.626, p = 0.018).

CONCLUSIONS

These retrospective data suggest propofol anesthesia significantly inhibits POAF compared to desflurane anesthesia in patients undergoing VATS. Further prospective studies are needed to elucidate the mechanism of propofol on the inhibition of POAF.

New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Liver Transplantation: Retrospective Analysis of Risk Factors and Outcomes

OBJECTIVE

The authors aimed to identify predictors of new-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) during the initial 90 days following liver transplantation, and to assess the association between POAF in-hospital and 1-year mortality.

DESIGN

A retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

At a university hospital between 2005 and 2017.

PATIENTS

Adults without a history of preoperative atrial fibrillation who underwent orthotopicliver transplantation.

MEASUREMENT AND MAIN RESULTS

The authors assessed the univariate association between new-onset of POAF in the postoperative period and each potential factor through a logistic regression model. Moreover, they explored predictors for POAF through stepwise selection. Finally, the authors assessed the relationship between POAF and in-hospital and 1-year mortality using logistic regression models, and whether the duration of atrial fibrillation was associated with in-hospital and 1-year mortality. Among 857 patients, 89 (10.4%) developed POAF. Using only preoperative variables, pulmonary hypertension, age, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and White race were identified as the most important predictors. Model discrimination was 0.75 (95% CI: 0.69-0.80), and incorporating intraoperative variables was 0.77 (95% CI: 0.72-0.82). In-hospital mortality was observed in 7.2% (6/83) of patients with new-onset of POAF, and in 2.8% (22/768) without, with confounder-adjusted odds ratio (OR) 1.00 (97.5% CI: 0.29,3.45; p = 0.996). One-year mortality was 22.4% (20/89) in patients who developed POAF and 8.3% (64/768) in patients who did not, confounder-adjusted OR 2.64 (97.5% CI: 1.35-5.16; p = 0.001). The duration of POAF did not affect long-term postoperative mortality.

CONCLUSION

Preoperative, mostly unmodifiable comorbidities are important risk factors for new-onset POAF after liver transplantation. The POAF was not associated with in-hospital mortality, but with increased 1-year mortality. Once developed, the duration of POAF did not affect long-term mortality after a liver transplant.

The effects of paravertebral blockade usage on pulmonary complications, atrial fibrillation and length of hospital stay following thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery

STUDY OBJECTIVE

Although combined thoracic paravertebral blockade (TPVB)-general anesthesia (GA) could improve pain control compared to GA alone after thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery, it has not been established whether this improvement in pain control could reduce associated adverse outcomes. Thus, this study aimed to explore the association between TPVB usage and adverse outcomes after thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study from a prospective database.

SETTING

A high-volume thoracic center in China.

PATIENTS

13966 consecutive patients who received thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery from January 2016 to December 2018 in Shanghai Chest Hospital were enrolled.

MEASUREMENTS

With a 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) analysis, adverse outcomes between GA alone and GA-TPVB were investigated. Multivariate and multiple linear regression analysis were used to identify factors and calculate odds radio (OR) for adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

The rate of TPVB usage was 14.8% (2070 out of 13,966). TPVB combined with GA was associated with lower rates of postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) (30.4% vs 33.5%, P = 0.005) and postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) (2.1% vs 2.9%, P = 0.041), and shorter length of hospital stay (LOS) (Median [IQR]; 5[4-5] vs 5[4-6]) days, P < 0.001) compared to GA alone. After a 1:1 PSM analysis, we investigated adverse outcomes in 2640 (1320 pairs) patients with or without TPVB usage, and this association remained existed, namely, the rates of PPCs (29.8% vs 34.2%, P = 0.014) and POAF (2.2% vs 3.6%, P = 0.028) were lower and LOS was shorter (5[4-5] vs 5[4-6] days, P < 0.001) in the GA-TPVB group. In multivariate analysis, the combination of GA plus TPVB was independent predictor for PPCs (OR = 0.879, 95%CI, 0.793-0.974, P = 0.014) and POAF (OR = 0.714, 95%CI, 0.516-0.988, P = 0.042), respectively. However, in multiple linear analysis, lower rates of PPCs and POAF associated with TPVB usage, rather than TPVB usage, were responsible for the reduced LOS.

CONCLUSIONS

The usage of TPVB may be a feasible and adjustable approach to reduce the rates of PPCs and POAF and associated LOS in thoracoscopic lung cancer surgery.

Clinical prediction scores and early anticoagulation therapy for new-onset atrial fibrillation in critical illness: a post-hoc analysis

Purpose

This study sought to describe the epidemiology of anticoagulation therapy for critically ill patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) according to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores and to assess the efficacy of early anticoagulation therapy.

Method

Adult patients who developed NOAF during intensive care unit stay were included. We compared the patients who were treated with and without anticoagulation therapy within 48 h from AF onset. The primary outcome was a composite outcome that included mortality and ischemic stroke during the period until hospital discharge.

Results

In total, 308 patients were included in this analysis. Anticoagulants were administered to 95 and 33 patients within 48 h and after 48 h from NOAF onset, respectively. After grouping the patients into four according to their CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED bleeding scores, we found that the proportion of anticoagulation therapy administered was similar among all groups. After adjustment using a multivariable Cox regression model, we noted that early anticoagulation therapy did not decrease the composite outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.47‒1.23). However, in patients without rhythm control drugs, early anticoagulation was significantly associated with better outcomes (adjusted HR 0.46; 95% CI; 0.22‒0.87, P = 0.041).

Conclusions

We found that clinical prediction scores were supposedly not used in the decision to implement anticoagulation therapy and that early anticoagulation therapy did not improve clinical outcomes in critically ill patients with NOAF.

Trial registration UMIN-CTR UMIN000026401. Registered 5 March 2017.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-02235-8.

External validity of a model to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation after thoracic surgery

OBJECTIVES

A prediction model developed by Passman et al. stratifies patients' risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after major non-cardiac thoracic surgery using 3 simple factors (sex, age and preoperative resting heart rate). The model has neither undergone external validation nor proven to be relevant in current thoracic surgery practice.

METHODS

A retrospective single-centre analysis of all patients who underwent major non-cardiac thoracic surgery (2008-2017) with prospective documentation of incidence and severity of POAF was used for external validation of Passman's derivation sample (published in 2005 with 856 patients). The model calibration was assessed by evaluating the incidence of POAF and patients' risk scores (0-6).

RESULTS

A total of 2054 patients were included. Among them, POAF occurred in 164 (7.9%), compared to 147 (17.2%) in Passman's study. Differences in our sample compared to Passman's sample included mean heart rate (75.7 vs 73.7 bpm, P < 0.001), proportion of patients with hypertension (46.1 vs 29.4%, P < 0.001), proportion of extensive lung resections, particularly pneumonectomy (6.1 vs 21%, P < 0.001) and proportion of minimally invasive surgeries (56.6% vs 0%). The model demonstrated a positive correlation between risk scores and POAF incidence (risk score 1.2% vs 6.16%).

CONCLUSIONS

The POAF model demonstrated good calibration in our population, despite a lower overall incidence of POAF compared to the derivation study. POAF rates were higher among patients with a higher risk score and undergoing procedures with greater intrathoracic dissection. This tool may be useful in identifying patients who are at risk of POAF when undergoing major thoracic surgery and may, therefore, benefit from targeted prophylactic therapy.

Preoperative levels of natriuretic peptides and the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is associated with clinically significant short- and long-term complications after noncardiac surgery. Our aim was to describe the incidence of clinically important POAF after noncardiac surgery and establish the prognostic value of N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in this context.

METHODS

The Vascular events In noncardiac Surgery patIents cOhort evaluatioN (VISION) Study was a prospective cohort study involving patients aged 45 years and older who had inpatient noncardiac surgery that was performed between August 2007 and November 2013. We determined 30-day incidence of clinically important POAF (i.e., resulting in angina, congestive heart failure, symptomatic hypotension or requiring treatment) using logistic regression models to analyze the association between preoperative NT-proBNP and POAF.

RESULTS

In 37 664 patients with no history of atrial fibrillation, we found that the incidence of POAF was 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9%-1.1%; 369 events); 3.2% (95% CI 2.3%-4.4%) in patients undergoing major thoracic surgery, 1.3% (95% CI 1.2%-1.5%) in patients undergoing major nonthoracic surgery and 0.2% (95% CI 0.1%-0.3%) in patients undergoing low-risk surgery. In a subgroup of 9789 patients with preoperative NT-proBNP measurements, the biomarker improved the prediction of POAF risk over conventional prognostic factors (likelihood ratio test p < 0.001; fraction of new information from NT-proBNP was 16%). Compared with a reference NT-proBNP measurement set at 100 ng/L, adjusted odds ratios for the occurrence of POAF were 1.31 (95% CI 1.15-1.49) at 200 ng/L, 2.07 (95% CI 1.27-3.36) at 1500 ng/L and 2.39 (95% CI 1.26-4.51) at 3000 ng/L.

INTERPRETATION

We determined that the incidence of clinically important POAF after noncardiac surgery was 1.0%. We also found that preoperative NT-proBNP levels were associated with POAF independent of established prognostic factors. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, no. NCT00512109.

Risk of stroke and other adverse outcomes in patients with perioperative atrial fibrillation 1 year after non-cardiac surgery

AIMS

To determine the 1-year risk of stroke and other adverse outcomes in patients with a new diagnosis of perioperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after non-cardiac surgery.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The PeriOperative ISchemic Evaluation (POISE)-1 trial evaluated the effects of metoprolol vs. placebo in 8351 patients, and POISE-2 compared the effect of aspirin vs. placebo, and clonidine vs. placebo in 10 010 patients. These trials included patients with, or at risk of, cardiovascular disease who were undergoing non-cardiac surgery. For the purpose of this study, we combined the POISE datasets, excluding 244 patients who were in atrial fibrillation (AF) at the time of randomization. Perioperative atrial fibrillation was defined as new AF that occurred within 30 days after surgery. Our primary outcome was the incidence of stroke at 1 year of follow-up; secondary outcomes were mortality and myocardial infarction (MI). We compared outcomes among patients with and without POAF using multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Among 18 117 patients (mean age 69 years, 57.4% male), 404 had POAF (2.2%). The stroke incidence 1 year after surgery was 5.58 vs. 1.54 per 100 patient-years in patients with and without POAF, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.43, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.00-5.90; P < 0.001. Patients with POAF also had an increased risk of death (incidence 31.37 vs. 9.34; aHR 2.51, 95% CI 2.01-3.14; P < 0.001) and MI (incidence 26.20 vs. 8.23; aHR 5.10, 95% CI 3.91-6.64; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Patients with POAF have a significantly increased risk of stroke, MI, and death at 1 year. Intervention studies are needed to evaluate risk reduction strategies in this high-risk population.

Association Between Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation and Long-term Risks of Stroke and Death in Noncardiac Surgery: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is frequently reported as a complication of noncardiac surgery. It is unknown whether new-onset perioperative AF is associated with an increased risk of stroke and death beyond the perioperative period. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the long-term risks of stroke and mortality associated with new-onset perioperative AF after noncardiac surgery.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched from inception to March 2020 for studies reporting on the association between perioperative AF and the risk of stroke and death occurring beyond 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Reference screening, study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed in duplicate. Data were pooled using inverse variance-weighted random-effects models and presented as risk ratios (RRs).

RESULTS

From 7344 citations, we included 31 studies (3,529,493 patients). The weighted mean incidence of perioperative AF was 0.7%. During a mean follow-up of 28.1 ± 9.4 months, perioperative AF was associated with an increased risk of stroke (1.5 vs 0.9 strokes per 100 patient-years; RR: 2.9, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.1-3.9, I2 = 78%). Perioperative AF was also associated with a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (21.0 vs 7.6 deaths per 100 patient-years; RR: 1.8, 95% CI: 1.5-2.2, I2 = 94%). The pooled adjusted hazard ratios for stroke and all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI: 1.6-2.2, I2 = 31%) and 1.5 (95% CI: 1.3-1.7, I2 = 20%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who had perioperative AF after noncardiac surgery had a higher long-term risk of stroke and mortality compared with patients who did not. Whether this risk is modifiable with oral anticoagulation therapy should be investigated.

Risk factors and outcomes of intraoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing thoracoscopic anatomic lung surgery

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common after thoracoscopic anatomic lung surgery and can be associated with increased adverse outcomes. However, the incidence, risk factors, and related outcomes of intraoperative AF in thoracoscopic anatomical lung surgery are unknown.

Methods

We retrospectively analyzed the files of 14,986 patients who had presented to the Shanghai Chest Hospital for thoracoscopic anatomic lung operations between January 2016 and December 2018. Univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted to identify risk factors for intraoperative AF, and a 1:1 propensity score-matched (PSM) analysis was performed to compare postoperative outcomes.

Results

The incidence of intraoperative AF was 1.2% (177/14,986). Multivariate analysis identified age older than or equal to 60 years [odds ratio (OR) =1.872, P<0.001], male sex (OR =2.979, P<0.001), diabetes mellitus (OR =2.287, P=0.014), lesion diameter of 1.4 cm or larger (OR =1.855, P=0.002), clinical nodal involvement (OR =1.920, P=0.005), lobectomy resection (OR =2.958, P=0.001), and right resection (OR =1.475, P=0.021) as independent risk factors for intraoperative AF. After 1:1 PSM, we evaluated outcomes in 350 (175 pairs) patients with or without intraoperative AF. Patients who had intraoperative AF were associated with prolonged median ICU stay {28 [26-54] vs. 24 [22-44] hours, P=0.001} and length of stay (LOS) {6 [4-7] vs. 5 [4-6] days, P=0.009}. However, the differences in cardiovascular, pulmonary, and other complications were not significant. In the subgroup analysis, patients who recovered sinus rhythm during operation (n=16) had a shorter median LOS {4 [4-6] vs. 6 [4-7] days, P=0.031}, and a similar incidence of complications compared with patients who recovered sinus rhythm after surgery (n=159).

Conclusions

We identified 7 independent risk factors for intraoperative AF, which were associated with prolonged ICU and hospital stays. The findings may help clinicians identify high-risk patients and take preventive measures to minimize the incidence and adverse outcomes of intraoperative AF.

Incidence and recurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation detected during hospitalization for non-cardiac surgery: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

This systematic review aimed to summarize reports of the incidence and long-term recurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with non-cardiac surgery.

SOURCES

We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE and EMBASE from inception to November 2019. We included studies that reported on the incidence of new-onset perioperative AF during hospitalization for non-cardiac surgery and/or AF recurrence in such patients following discharge. Reviewers screened articles and abstracted data independently and in duplicate. We assessed study quality by appraising methodology for collecting AF history, incident AF during hospitalization, and AF recurrence after discharge.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

From 39,233 citations screened, 346 studies that enrolled a total of 5,829,758 patients met eligibility criteria. Only 27 studies used prospective, continuous inpatient electrocardiographic (ECG) monitoring to detect incident AF. Overall, the incidence of postoperative AF during hospitalization ranged from 0.004 to 50.3%, with a median [interquartile range] of 8.7 [3.8-15.0]%. Atrial fibrillation incidence varied with type of surgery. Prospective studies using continuous ECG monitoring reported significantly higher incidences of AF than those that did not (13.9% vs 1.9%, respectively; P < 0.001). A total of 13 studies (25,726 patients) with follow-up up to 5.4 years reported on AF recurrence following hospital discharge; only one study used a prospective systematic monitoring protocol. Recurrence rates ranged from 0 to 37.3%.

CONCLUSIONS

Rates of AF incidence first detected following non-cardiac surgery and long-term AF recurrence vary markedly. Differences in the intensity of ECG monitoring and type of surgery may account for this variation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42017068055); registered 1 September 2017.

Variation in management of post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) after thoracic surgery

OBJECTIVES

New-onset post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a frequent adverse event following major thoracic surgery and is associated with increased risk of perioperative morbidity, length of stay and stroke. It is managed initially with rate and rhythm control therapy; however, optimal duration and the need for anticoagulation are poorly understood. This study aims to assess practice variation regarding POAF management and duration.

METHODS

This retrospective, single-center cohort study included patients who underwent major thoracic surgery and developed POAF between 2008 and 2017, managed with rate and rhythm control therapy alone. Demographic, clinical, and surgical variables/outcomes, POAF management, and incidence of POAF recurrence in the 30-day post-operative period were collected. Chi-square and T-tests determined significance.

RESULTS

Of 2054 patients undergoing thoracic surgery, 155 (75%) patients developed POAF. Different rate and rhythm control agents were used, most commonly metoprolol. 107 (69%) continued rate and rhythm control therapy upon hospital discharge for a mean of 56 days. Among the 48 patients with discontinuation of rate and rhythm control therapy on discharge, none demonstrated recurrence of POAF; in contrast to 3 of 107 patients who continued on therapy. Among patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2, 15% were prescribed anticoagulation on discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of rate and rhythm control therapy and anticoagulation for POAF is significantly varied in practice. Many patients are not continued on rate and rhythm control after hospital discharge, which does not appear to impact risk of POAF recurrence. Further research to inform guidelines for POAF management, including therapy duration and indications for anticoagulation is warranted.

High-Sensitivity Estimate of the Incidence of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Critically Ill Patients

To estimate the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation in critically ill patients.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort.

SETTING

Medical-surgical ICU.

SUBJECTS

Consecutive patients without a history of atrial fibrillation but with atrial fibrillation risk factors.

INTERVENTIONS

Electrocardiogram patch monitor until discharge from hospital or up to 14 days.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

A total of 249 participants (median age of 71 yr [interquartile range] 64-78 yr; 35% female) completed the study protocol of which 158 (64%) were admitted to ICU for medical illness, 78 (31%) following noncardiac surgery, and 13 (5%) with trauma. Median Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score was 16 (interquartile range, 12-22). Median duration of patch electrocardiogram monitoring, ICU, and hospital lengths of stay were 6 (interquartile range, 3-12), 4 (interquartile range, 2-8), and 11 days (interquartile range, 5-23 d), respectively.Atrial fibrillation ≥ 30 seconds was detected by the patch in 44 participants (17.7%), and three participants (1.2%) had atrial fibrillation detected clinically after patch removal, resulting in an overall atrial fibrillation incidence of 18.9% (95% CI, 14.2-24.3%).Total duration of atrial fibrillation ranged from 53 seconds to the entire monitoring time. The proportion of participants with ≥1 episode(s) of ≥6 minute, ≥1 hour, ≥12 hour and ≥24 hour duration was 14.8%, 13.2%, 7.0%, and 5.3%, respectively. The clinical team recognized only 70% of atrial fibrillation cases that were detected by the electrocardiogram patch.

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients admitted to an ICU, the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation is approximately one in five, although approximately one-third of cases are not recognized by the clinical team.

Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation Following Noncardiac Surgery Increases Risk of Stroke

BACKGROUND

New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation is well recognized to be an adverse prognostic marker in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Whether postoperative atrial fibrillation confers an increased risk of stroke remains unclear.

METHODS

A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to assess the risk of stroke after postoperative atrial fibrillation in noncardiac surgery. MEDLINE, Cochrane, and EMBASE databases were searched for articles published up to May 2019 for studies of patients undergoing noncardiac surgery that reported incidence of new atrial fibrillation and stroke. Event rates from individual studies were pooled and risk ratios (RR) were pooled using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Fourteen studies of 3,536,291 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery were included in the quantitative analysis (mean follow-up 1.4 ± 1 year). New atrial fibrillation occurred in 26,046 (0.74%), patients with a higher incidence following thoracic surgery. Stroke occurred in 279 (1.5%) and 6199 (0.4%) patients with and without postoperative atrial fibrillation, respectively. On pooled analysis, postoperative atrial fibrillation was associated with a significantly increased risk of stroke (RR 2.51; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.59), with moderate heterogeneity. The stroke risk was significantly higher with atrial fibrillation following nonthoracic, compared with thoracic, surgery (RR 3.09 vs RR 1.95; P = .01).

CONCLUSION

New postoperative atrial fibrillation following noncardiac surgery was associated with a 2.5-fold increase in the risk of stroke. This risk was highest among patients undergoing nonthoracic noncardiac surgery. Given the documented efficacy of newer anticoagulants, randomized controlled trials are warranted to assess whether they can reduce the risk of stroke in these patients.

Stroke prophylaxis in critically-ill patients with new-onset atrial fibrillation

Despite a high incidence of new onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) in critically ill patients and its association with short and long-term incidence of stroke, there is limited data assessing anticoagulation on hospital discharge in these patients. We retrospectively reviewed electronic medical records of all adult patients admitted to non-cardiac ICUs at our institution between January 2009 and March 2016. Patients with NOAF were identified and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score of ICU survivors was calculated. Prescription of oral anticoagulant therapy on hospital discharge was analyzed. A total of 640 (1.7% [38,708 patients]; 95% CI 1.5%, 1.8%) patients developed NOAF during the study period. CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was calculated for 615 patients, of which 82.2% had a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2. Of the 428 eligible patients, only 96 patients (22.4%) were discharged on oral anticoagulant therapy. Patients with a history of congestive heart failure (33.7% vs. 19.7%) and stroke/TIA or other thromboembolic disease (35.9% vs. 18.0%) were more likely to be discharged on an oral anticoagulant. Patients with a higher score were also more likely to be discharged on an oral anticoagulant (OR 1.27; 95% CI 1.10, 1.47). NOAF is common in critically ill patients admitted to non-cardiac ICUs and a significant proportion of these patients have a CHA₂DS₂-VASc score ≥ 2. However, only a minority of them are discharged on an oral anticoagulant. There is a need to identify ways to improve implementation of effective stroke prophylaxis in these patients.

CHA2DS2-VASc Score and In-Hospital Mortality in Critically Ill Patients With New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

To examine the role of the CHA₂DS₂-VASc (Congestive heart failure; Hypertension; Age ≥75 years [doubled]; Diabetes; previous Stroke, transient ischemic attack, or thromboembolism [doubled]; Vascular disease; Age 65-75 years; and Sex category) score as a prognostic marker of in-hospital mortality in critically ill patients who develop new-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF).

DESIGN

Retrospective analyses.

SETTING

A single-center study in a tertiary care academic medical center.

PARTICIPANTS

The study comprised all adult patients with NOAF admitted to noncardiac intensive care units (ICUs) at a tertiary care academic institution between January 2009 and March 2016.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The authors retrospectively reviewed electronic medical records of all adult patients admitted to noncardiac ICUs at a tertiary care academic institution between January 2009 and March 2016. Patients with NOAF were identified and their CHA₂DS₂-VASc score was calculated. The authors evaluated the association of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score and its individual components with in-hospital mortality in these patients. A total of 640 (1.7% [38,708 patients]; 95% CI 1.5%-1.8%) patients developed NOAF during the study period. The in-hospital mortality rate in patients included in the analysis was 14.3%. There was no association between in-hospital mortality and CHA₂DS₂VASc score. However, the likelihood of in-hospital death was 1.56  times greater for patients having atrial fibrillation and concomitant vascular disease (95% CI 1.003-2.429; p = 0.049).

CONCLUSIONS

New-onset atrial fibrillation is common in critically ill patients and is associated with high in-hospital mortality. The authors found that the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score itself is not a reliable prognostic marker of in-hospital mortality in these patients. However, the presence of vascular disease in patients with NOAF may increase the mortality associated with this disease.

Perioperative Atrial Fibrillation in Noncardiac Surgeries for Malignancies and One-Year Recurrence

BACKGROUND

Perioperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) in noncardiac surgeries is common. However, it is unclear whether such atrial fibrillation (AF) recurs in the long term.

METHODS

This study was a prospective, single-center, observational study that included patients who underwent noncardiac surgeries for malignancies. Patients were followed up for 1 year to evaluate the incidence of AF, ischemic stroke, and mortality. An event-triggered recorder was used in patients with POAF. The incidences were compared according to the presence of POAF.

RESULTS

Of 752 consecutive patients, 77 (10.2%) developed POAF and wore an event recorder for 19 (12-30) days. AF and ischemic stroke at 1 year were observed in 24 patients (31.1%) and 2 patients (2.6%) with POAF and 4 patients (0.6%) and 3 patients (0.4%) without POAF, respectively. Of the 24 patients with POAF and AF recurrence, 22 (92%) were asymptomatic. Anticoagulation was prescribed in 67 patients (87%) with POAF. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that a higher AF recurrence rate in patients with POAF was associated with hypertension (hazard ratio, 2.79; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-7.38) and serum creatinine level (hazard ratio for 20 μmol/L increase, 2.32; 95% confidence interval, 1.16-4.62).

CONCLUSIONS

AF recurs in approximately 30% of patients with POAF with malignancy in the subsequent year; most recurrences are asymptomatic.

A brain natriuretic peptide-based prediction model for atrial fibrillation after thoracic surgery: Development and internal validation

OBJECTIVE

Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is common after anatomic thoracic surgery. Elevated preoperative brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) level is strongly associated with risk of POAF. We describe the development and internal validation of a clinical prediction model for POAF that includes BNP and other clinical factors.

METHODS

Clinical and preoperative BNP data were collected for 635 patients in sinus rhythm before anatomic lung (n = 540) or esophageal (n = 95) resection. The primary outcome was new onset of POAF (>5 minutes) during hospitalization. A prediction model was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis and internally validated using a bootstrap-resampling approach.

RESULTS

POAF occurred in 20% of patients (124 out of 635). BNP level was higher among patients with than without POAF (median, 45 vs 23 pg/mL; P < .0001). The final prediction model included 5 factors: age (odds ratio [OR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.08; P = .001), body mass index (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.00-1.09; P = .016), BNP level (75th vs 25th percentile, 57.5 vs 12.5 pg/mL; OR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.26-3.43; P = .0003), history of atrial fibrillation (OR, 5.91; 95% CI, 2.47-14.11; P < .0001), and extent of surgery (compared with segmentectomy [reference]: pneumonectomy OR, 6.70; 95% CI, 1.91-24.70; esophagectomy OR, 4.93; 95% CI, 1.94-14.06; lobectomy OR, 1.88; 95% CI, 4.90-8.34; overall P = .0002). The model had good calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.736). After internal validation, optimism-corrected measures showed similarly good calibration and discrimination (C statistic, 0.720; 95% CI, 0.664-0.765).

CONCLUSIONS

Our novel prediction model-based interactive calculator can be used to identify patients at high risk of POAF and could be incorporated into practice prevention guidelines.

Early Resumption of β Blockers Is Associated with Decreased Atrial Fibrillation after Noncardiothoracic and Nonvascular Surgery

Editor’s Perspective

What We Already Know about This Topic

What This Article Tells Us That Is New

Background

Beta (β) blockers reduce the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation and should be restarted after surgery, but it remains unclear when best to resume β blockers postoperatively. The authors thus evaluated the relationship between timing of resumption of β blockers and atrial fibrillation in patients recovering from noncardiothoracic and nonvascular surgery.

Methods

The authors evaluated 8,201 adult β-blocker users with no previous history of atrial fibrillation who stayed at least two nights after noncardiothoracic and nonvascular surgery as a retrospective observational cohort. After propensity score matching on baseline and intraoperative variables, 1,924 patients who did resume β blockers by the end of postoperative day 1 were compared with 973 patients who had not resumed by that time on postoperative atrial fibrillation using logistic regression. A secondary matched analysis compared 3,198 patients who resumed β blockers on the day of surgery with 3,198 who resumed thereafter.

Results

Of propensity score–matched patients who resumed β blockers by end of postoperative day 1, 4.9% (94 of 1,924) developed atrial fibrillation, compared with 7.0% (68 of 973) of those who resumed thereafter (adjusted odds ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.50–0.95; P = 0.026). Patients who resumed β blockers on day of surgery had an atrial fibrillation incidence of 4.9% versus 5.8% for those who started thereafter (odds ratio, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.67–1.04; P = 0.104).

Conclusions

Resuming β blockers in chronic users by the end of the first postoperative day may be associated with lower odds of in-hospital atrial fibrillation. However, there seems to be little advantage to restarting on the day of surgery itself.

Preventing Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation After Noncardiac Surgery: A Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although postoperative atrial fibrillation is common after noncardiac surgery, there is a paucity of data regarding prophylaxis. We sought to determine whether pharmacologic prophylaxis reduces the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery.

METHODS

We performed an electronic search of Ovid MEDLINE, the Cochrane central register of controlled trials database, and SCOPUS from inception to September 7, 2016 and included prospective randomized studies in which patients in sinus rhythm underwent noncardiac surgery and examined the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation as well as secondary safety outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies including 11,608 patients were included. Types of surgery included vascular surgery (3465 patients), thoracic surgery (2757 patients), general surgery (2292 patients), orthopedic surgery (1756 patients), and other surgery (1338 patients). Beta-blockers (relative risk [RR] 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11-0.87), amiodarone (RR 0.42; 95% CI, 0.26 to 0.67), and statins (RR 0.43; 95% CI, 0.27 to 0.68) reduced postoperative atrial fibrillation compared with placebo or active controls. Calcium channel blockers (RR 0.55; 95% CI, 0.30 to 1.01), digoxin (RR 1.62; 95% CI, 0.95 to 2.76), and magnesium (RR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.23 to 2.33) had no statistically significant effect on postoperative atrial fibrillation incidence. The incidence of adverse events was comparable across agents, except for increased mortality (RR 1.33; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.37) and bradycardia (RR 2.74; 95% CI, 2.19 to 3.43) in patients receiving beta-blockers.

CONCLUSIONS

Pharmacologic prophylaxis with amiodarone, beta-blockers, or statins reduces the incidence of postoperative atrial fibrillation after noncardiac surgery. Amiodarone and statins have a relatively low overall risk of short-term adverse events.