LATENT SUBGROUP IDENTIFICATION IN IMAGE-ON-SCALAR REGRESSION

Image-on-scalar regression has been a popular approach to modeling the association between brain activities and scalar characteristics in neuroimaging research. The associations could be heterogeneous across individuals in the population, as indicated by recent large-scale neuroimaging studies, for example, the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. The ABCD data can inform our understanding of heterogeneous associations and how to leverage the heterogeneity and tailor interventions to increase the number of youths who benefit. It is of great interest to identify subgroups of individuals from the population such that: (1) within each subgroup the brain activities have homogeneous associations with the clinical measures; (2) across subgroups the associations are heterogeneous, and (3) the group allocation depends on individual characteristics. Existing image-on-scalar regression methods and clustering methods cannot directly achieve this goal. We propose a latent subgroup image-on-scalar regression model (LASIR) to analyze large-scale, multisite neuroimaging data with diverse sociode-mographics. LASIR introduces the latent subgroup for each individual and group-specific, spatially varying effects, with an efficient stochastic expectation maximization algorithm for inferences. We demonstrate that LASIR outperforms existing alternatives for subgroup identification of brain activation patterns with functional magnetic resonance imaging data via comprehensive simulations and applications to the ABCD study. We have released our reproducible codes for public use with the software package available on Github.

An empirical evaluation of alternative approaches to adjusting for attrition when analyzing longitudinal survey data on young adults' substance use trajectories

OBJECTIVES

Longitudinal survey data allow for the estimation of developmental trajectories of substance use from adolescence to young adulthood, but these estimates may be subject to attrition bias. Moreover, there is a lack of consensus regarding the most effective statistical methodology to adjust for sample selection and attrition bias when estimating these trajectories. Our objective is to develop specific recommendations regarding adjustment approaches for attrition in longitudinal surveys in practice.

METHODS

Analyzing data from the national U.S. Monitoring the Future panel study following four cohorts of individuals from modal ages 18 to 29/30, we systematically compare alternative approaches to analyzing longitudinal data with a wide range of substance use outcomes, and examine the sensitivity of inferences regarding substance use prevalence and trajectories as a function of college attendance to the approach used.

RESULTS

Our results show that analyzing all available observations in each wave, while simultaneously accounting for the correlations among repeated observations, sample selection, and attrition, is the most effective approach. The adjustment effects are pronounced in wave-specific descriptive estimates but generally modest in covariate-adjusted trajectory modeling.

CONCLUSIONS

The adjustments can refine the precision, and, to some extent, the implications of our findings regarding young adult substance use trajectories.

Statistical Modeling of Longitudinal Data with Non-ignorable Non-monotone Missingness with Semiparametric Bayesian and Machine Learning Components

In longitudinal studies, outcomes are measured repeatedly over time and it is common that not all the patients will be measured throughout the study. For example patients can be lost to follow-up (monotone missingness) or miss one or more visits (non-monotone missingness); hence there are missing outcomes. In the longitudinal setting, we often assume the missingness is related to the unobserved data, which is non-ignorable. Pattern-mixture models (PMM) analyze the joint distribution of outcome and patterns of missingness in longitudinal data with non-ignorable nonmonotone missingness. Existing methods employ PMM and impute the unobserved outcomes using the distribution of observed outcomes, conditioned on missing patterns. We extend the existing methods using latent class analysis (LCA) and a shared-parameter PMM. The LCA groups patterns of missingness with similar features and the shared-parameter PMM allows a subset of parameters to be different between latent classes when fitting a model. We also propose a method for imputation using distribution of observed data conditioning on latent class. Our model improves existing methods by accommodating data with small sample size. In a simulation study our estimator had smaller mean squared error than existing methods. Our methodology is applied to data from a phase II clinical trial that studies quality of life of patients with prostate cancer receiving radiation therapy.