Causal mediation analysis using high-dimensional image mediator bounded in irregular domain with an application to breast cancer

Mammography is the primary breast cancer screening strategy. Recent methods have been developed using the mammogram image to improve breast cancer risk prediction. However, it is unclear on the extent to which the effect of risk factors on breast cancer risk is mediated through tissue features summarized in mammogram images and the extent to which it is through other pathways. While mediation analysis has been conducted using mammographic density (a summary measure within the image), the mammogram image is not necessarily well described by a single summary measure and, in addition, such a measure provides no spatial information about the relationship between the exposure risk factor and the risk of breast cancer. Thus, to better understand the role of the mammogram images that provide spatial information about the state of the breast tissue that is causally predictive of the future occurrence of breast cancer, we propose a novel method of causal mediation analysis using mammogram image mediator while accommodating the irregular shape of the breast. We apply the proposed method to data from the Joanne Knight Breast Health Cohort and leverage new insights on the decomposition of the total association between risk factor and breast cancer risk that was mediated by the texture of the underlying breast tissue summarized in the mammogram image.

Mediation and longitudinal analysis to interpret the association between clozapine pharmacokinetics, pharmacogenomics, and absolute neutrophil count

Clozapine is effective at reducing symptoms of treatment-resistant schizophrenia, but it can also induce several adverse outcomes including neutropenia and agranulocytosis. We used linear mixed-effect models and structural equation modelling to determine whether pharmacokinetic and genetic variables influence absolute neutrophil count in a longitudinal UK-based sample of clozapine users not currently experiencing neutropenia (N = 811). Increased daily clozapine dose was associated with elevated neutrophil count, amounting to a 133 cells/mm3 rise per standard deviation increase in clozapine dose. One-third of the total effect of clozapine dose was mediated by plasma clozapine and norclozapine levels, which themselves demonstrated opposing, independent associations with absolute neutrophil count. Finally, CYP1A2 pharmacogenomic activity score was associated with absolute neutrophil count, supporting lower neutrophil levels in CYP1A2 poor metabolisers during clozapine use. This information may facilitate identifying at-risk patients and then introducing preventative interventions or individualised pharmacovigilance procedures to help mitigate these adverse haematological reactions.

Social and early life determinants of survival from cradle to grave: A case study in wild baboons

Field studies of natural mammal populations present powerful opportunities to investigate the determinants of health and aging using fine-grained observations of known individuals across the life course. Here, we synthesize five decades of findings from one such study: the wild baboons of the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya. First, we discuss the profound associations between early life adversity, adult social conditions, and key aging outcomes in this population, especially survival. Second, we review potential mediators of the relationship between early life adversity and survival in our population. Notably, our tests of two leading candidate mediators-social isolation and glucocorticoid levels-fail to identify a single, strong mediator of early life effects on adult survival. Instead, early adversity, social isolation, and glucocorticoids are independently linked to adult lifespans, suggesting considerable scope for mitigating the negative consequences of early life adversity. Third, we review our work on the evolutionary rationale for early life effects on mortality, which currently argues against clear predictive adaptive responses. Finally, we end by highlighting major themes emerging from the study of sociality, development, and aging in the Amboseli baboons, as well as important open questions for future work.

A Causal Approach to Functional Mediation Analysis with Application to a Smoking Cessation Intervention

The increase in the use of mobile and wearable devices now allows dense assessment of mediating processes over time. For example, a pharmacological intervention may have an effect on smoking cessation via reductions in momentary withdrawal symptoms. We define and identify the causal direct and indirect effects in terms of potential outcomes on the mean difference and odds ratio scales, and present a method for estimating and testing the indirect effect of a randomized treatment on a distal binary variable as mediated by the nonparametric trajectory of an intensively measured longitudinal variable (e.g., from ecological momentary assessment). Coverage of a bootstrap test for the indirect effect is demonstrated via simulation. An empirical example is presented based on estimating later smoking abstinence from patterns of craving during smoking cessation treatment. We provide an R package, funmediation, available on CRAN at https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/funmediation/index.html, to conveniently apply this technique. We conclude by discussing possible extensions to multiple mediators and directions for future research.

A Causal Mediation Model for Longitudinal Mediators and Survival Outcomes with an Application to Animal Behavior

In animal behavior studies, a common goal is to investigate the causal pathways between an exposure and outcome, and a mediator that lies in between. Causal mediation analysis provides a principled approach for such studies. Although many applications involve longitudinal data, the existing causal mediation models are not directly applicable to settings where the mediators are measured on irregular time grids. In this paper, we propose a causal mediation model that accommodates longitudinal mediators on arbitrary time grids and survival outcomes simultaneously. We take a functional data analysis perspective and view longitudinal mediators as realizations of underlying smooth stochastic processes. We define causal estimands of direct and indirect effects accordingly and provide corresponding identification assumptions. We employ a functional principal component analysis approach to estimate the mediator process and propose a Cox hazard model for the survival outcome that flexibly adjusts the mediator process. We then derive a g-computation formula to express the causal estimands using the model coefficients. The proposed method is applied to a longitudinal data set from the Amboseli Baboon Research Project to investigate the causal relationships between early adversity, adult physiological stress responses, and survival among wild female baboons. We find that adversity experienced in early life has a significant direct effect on females' life expectancy and survival probability, but find little evidence that these effects were mediated by markers of the stress response in adulthood. We further developed a sensitivity analysis method to assess the impact of potential violation to the key assumption of sequential ignorability. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear on-line.

Early life adversity and adult social relationships have independent effects on survival in a wild primate

Adverse conditions in early life can have negative consequences for adult health and survival in humans and other animals. What variables mediate the relationship between early adversity and adult survival? Adult social environments represent one candidate: Early life adversity is linked to social adversity in adulthood, and social adversity in adulthood predicts survival outcomes. However, no study has prospectively linked early life adversity, adult social behavior, and adult survival to measure the extent to which adult social behavior mediates this relationship. We do so in a wild baboon population in Amboseli, Kenya. We find weak mediation and largely independent effects of early adversity and adult sociality on survival. Furthermore, strong social bonds and high social status in adulthood can buffer some negative effects of early adversity. These results support the idea that affiliative social behavior is subject to natural selection through its positive relationship with survival, and they highlight possible targets for intervention to improve human health and well-being.

Bayesian causal inference: a critical review

This paper provides a critical review of the Bayesian perspective of causal inference based on the potential outcomes framework. We review the causal estimands, assignment mechanism, the general structure of Bayesian inference of causal effects and sensitivity analysis. We highlight issues that are unique to Bayesian causal inference, including the role of the propensity score, the definition of identifiability, the choice of priors in both low- and high-dimensional regimes. We point out the central role of covariate overlap and more generally the design stage in Bayesian causal inference. We extend the discussion to two complex assignment mechanisms: instrumental variable and time-varying treatments. We identify the strengths and weaknesses of the Bayesian approach to causal inference. Throughout, we illustrate the key concepts via examples. This article is part of the theme issue 'Bayesian inference: challenges, perspectives, and prospects'.

Dynamic ensemble prediction of cognitive performance in spaceflight

During spaceflight, astronauts face a unique set of stressors, including microgravity, isolation, and confinement, as well as environmental and operational hazards. These factors can negatively impact sleep, alertness, and neurobehavioral performance, all of which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we predict neurobehavioral performance over the course of a 6-month mission aboard the International Space Station (ISS), using ISS environmental data as well as self-reported and cognitive data collected longitudinally from 24 astronauts. Neurobehavioral performance was repeatedly assessed via a 3-min Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT-B) that is highly sensitive to the effects of sleep deprivation. To relate PVT-B performance to time-varying and discordantly-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose an ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects, random forest, and functional concurrent models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also identify the most important predictors of PVT-B performance, which include an individual's previous PVT-B performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation dose. This method is broadly applicable to settings where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction of human behavior involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Social bonds do not mediate the relationship between early adversity and adult glucocorticoids in wild baboons

In humans and other animals, harsh conditions in early life can have profound effects on adult physiology, including the stress response. This relationship may be mediated by a lack of supportive relationships in adulthood. That is, early life adversity may inhibit the formation of supportive social ties, and weak social support is itself often linked to dysregulated stress responses. Here, we use prospective, longitudinal data from wild baboons in Kenya to test the links between early adversity, adult social bonds, and adult fecal glucocorticoid hormone concentrations (a measure of hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal [HPA] axis activation and the stress response). Using a causal inference framework, we found that experiencing one or more sources of early adversity led to a 9 to 14% increase in females' glucocorticoid concentrations across adulthood. However, these effects were not mediated by weak social bonds: The direct effects of early adversity on adult glucocorticoid concentrations were 11 times stronger than the effects mediated by social bonds. This pattern occurred, in part, because the effect of social bonds on glucocorticoids was weak compared to the powerful effects of early adversity on glucocorticoid levels in adulthood. Hence, in female baboons, weak social bonds in adulthood are not enough to explain the effects of early adversity on glucocorticoid concentrations. Together, our results support the well-established notions that early adversity and weak social bonds both predict poor adult health. However, the magnitudes of these two effects differ considerably, and they may act independently of one another.