The Long Arm of Conflict: How Timing Shapes the Impact of Childhood Exposure to War

The long-term association between exposure to wartime bombing earlier in life and post-traumatic stress later in life among today's older Vietnamese population

This analysis examines the relationship between exposure to American wartime bombardments earlier in life and later-life PTSD among current surviving Vietnamese aged 59+. It also assesses whether the relationship varies by military status during the war - formal military, informal military, or civilian - and whether associations are explained by exposure to violence and malevolent conditions. Data link survey responses from the 2018 Vietnam Health and Aging Study to provincial-wide level bombing intensity using U.S. Department of Defense records from the Theater History of Operations Vietnam database. PTSD measured using nine items from the PTSD Checklist. Analyses employ multivariate logistic quantile regression. Findings examined for a sample of 2290 Vietnamese survivors and a subsample of 736 Vietnamese that moved at least once during wartime. Results show a robust and significant positive association between province-wide bombing intensity and later-life PTSD scores. Interaction effects indicate civilians have overall lower levels of PTSD than those that were in the formal or informal military, but the association between bombing and PTSD is stronger among civilians. Much of the association is a function of exposure to violence and less is a function of exposure to malevolent conditions. Findings confirm earlier studies that have shown severe deleterious impacts of war trauma, and arial bombardments particularly, on long-term psychological health, while extending extant literature to civilian populations living in Vietnam during intense aerial bombing episodes.

Separating Scarring Effect and Selection of Early-Life Exposures With Genetic Data

Causal life course research examining consequences of early-life exposures has largely relied on associations between early-life environments and later-life outcomes using exogenous environmental shocks. Nonetheless, even with (quasi-)randomized early-life exposures, these associations may reflect not only causation ("scarring") but also selection (i.e., which members are included in data assessing later life). Investigating this selection and its impacts on estimated effects of early-life conditions has, however, often been ignored because of a lack of pre-exposure data. This study proposes an approach for assessing and correcting selection, separately from scarring, using genetic measurements. Because genetic measurements are determined at the time of conception, any associations with early-life exposures should be interpreted as selection. Using data from the UK Biobank, we find that in utero exposure to a higher area-level infant mortality rate is associated with genetic predispositions correlated with better educational attainment and health. These findings point to the direction and magnitude of selection from this exposure. Corrections for this selection in examinations of effects of exposure on later educational attainment suggest underestimates of 26-74%; effects on other life course outcomes also vary across selection correction methods.

Research Note: A Novel Sullivan Method Projection Framework With Application to Long COVID

Originally developed for estimating healthy life expectancy, the traditional Sullivan method continues to be a popular tool for obtaining point-in-time estimates of the population impacts of a wide range of health and social conditions. However, except in rare data-intensive cases, the method is subject to stringent stationarity assumptions, which often do not align with real-world conditions and restrict its resulting estimates and applications. In this research note, we present an expansion of the original method to apply within a population projection framework. The Sullivan method projection framework produces estimates that offer new insights about future trends in population health and social arrangements under various demographic and epidemiologic scenarios, such as the percentage of life years that population members can expect to spend with a condition of interest in a time interval under different assumptions. We demonstrate the utility of this framework using the case of long COVID, illustrating both its operation and potential to reveal insights about emergent population health challenges under various theoretically informed scenarios. The traditional Sullivan method provides a summary measure of the present, while its incorporation into a projection framework enables preparation for a variety of potential futures.

Empirical evidence of predictive adaptive response in humans: systematic review and meta-analysis of migrant populations

Meta-analysis is used to test a variant of a Developmental Origins of Adult Health and Disease (DOHaD)'s conjecture known as predictive adaptive response (PAR). According to it, individuals who are exposed to mismatches between adverse or constrained in utero conditions, on the one hand, and postnatal obesogenic environments, on the other, are at higher risk of developing adult chronic conditions, including obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), hypertension and cardiovascular disease. We argue that migrant populations from low and middle to high-income countries offer a unique opportunity to test the conjecture. A database was constructed from an exhaustive literature search of peer-reviewed papers published prior to May 2021 contained in PUBMED and SCOPUS using keywords related to migrants, DOHaD, and associated health outcomes. Random effects meta-regression models were estimated to assess the magnitude of effects associated with migrant groups on the prevalence rate of T2D and hypertension in adults and overweight/obesity in adults and children. Overall, we used 38 distinct studies and 78 estimates of diabetes, 59 estimates of hypertension, 102 estimates of overweight/obesity in adults, and 23 estimates of overweight/obesity in children. Our results show that adult migrants experience higher prevalence of T2D than populations at destination (PR 1.48; 95% CI 1.35-1.65) and origin (PR 1.80; 95% CI 1.40-2.34). Similarly, there is a significant excess of obesity prevalence in children migrants (PR 1.22; 95% CI 1.04-1.43) but not among adult migrants (PR 0.89; 95% CI 0.80-1.01). Although the total effect of migrant status on prevalence of hypertension is centered on zero, some migrant groups show increased risks. Finally, the size of estimated effects varies significantly by migrant groups according to place of destination. Despite limitations inherent to all meta-analyses and admitting that some of our findings may be accounted for alternative explanations, the present study shows empirical evidence consistent with selected PAR-like conjectures.

Weathering within war: Somatic health complaints among Vietnamese older adults exposed to bombing and violence as adolescents in the American war

OBJECTIVE

People living in war may experience deteriorating health via weathering (wear and tear) from long-term exposures to psychosocial and environmental stressors. Weathering embodied in somatic health complaints may illuminate the effects of war on health.

METHODS

We investigate whether wartime stress exposures occurring during adolescence and early adulthood affect weathering in late adulthood via linear regression with data from the Vietnamese Health and Aging Study (VHAS). VHAS is a cross-sectional study wherein investigators surveyed 2447 adults aged 60+ in four districts of northern and central Vietnam in 2018. These same individuals ranged in age from seven to 52 in 1965, with most having been in adolescence or early adulthood at the peak of the American war in Vietnam (1965-1975). The sample used for this study (n = 2254) were participants in the first VHAS wave in 2018.

RESULTS

We find older Vietnamese adults exposed to higher-intensity provincial bombing suffer more numerous somatic health complaints (unstandardized β = 0.005, SE = 0.001, p = 0.001). Additionally, greater health complaints emerge among older adults whose most intense bombing exposures were at younger ages of adolescence (< age 15) as compared to those whose peak exposures were in older ages (19-25) (unstandardized β = 0.62 95%, SE = 0.19, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that age of exposure to armed conflict is a critical determinant of weathering across the life course.

Windows of Vulnerability: Consequences of Exposure Timing during the Dutch Hunger Winter

Prior research on early-life exposures to famine has established in utero development as a critical period of vulnerability to malnutrition. Yet, previous research tends to focus narrowly on this stage, at the expense of a more comprehensive examination of childhood. As a result, the literature has yet to compare the severity of the consequences of exposure to malnutrition across developmentally salient periods. Such comparison is crucial not only in the magnitude of effects but also in the nature of outcomes. Using a restricted population registry-linked health survey, this study examines the Dutch Hunger Winter to provide a comprehensive examination of the long-term consequences of in utero, infant, childhood, and adolescent exposure to famine. The results show malnutrition leads to heterogeneous effects depending on when the exposure occurs. In utero exposure to malnutrition leads to deleterious conditions in physical health and lower socioeconomic attainment. For older cohorts, results suggest a resilience to the effects of malnutrition on physical health in late life, but a higher vulnerability to socioeconomic stunting. Furthermore, the results suggest important gender differences in the long-term impact of malnutrition. Males consistently show stronger negative consequences across a wider array of conditions.

Childhood exposure to war and adult onset of cardiometabolic disorders among older Europeans

Childhood exposure to contexts of war is a common occurrence among current and recent cohorts of children in various parts of the world. It was also common among older cohorts across Europe. Utilizing the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) the present study links early life course residential histories with detailed information on the timing and location of hostilities during WWII to address three questions: 1) is childhood exposure to war associated with earlier onset of cardiometabolic disease (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, high cholesterol, and diabetes)? 2) did this additional risk vary depending on the timing of first exposure? 3) did this additional risk manifest via different life course pathways depending on exposure timing? Results demonstrate that exposure to war is associated with increased lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, high cholesterol, and hypertension and that this association is strongly concentrated among cohorts exposed in utero or during early childhood (e.g., before age 8). The results also suggest that the impact of war exposure on cardiometabolic disorders are likely to be direct, operating through latent biological processes rather than through childhood hardship, stunting of adult socioeconomic attainment, or elevated risk-taking behaviors.

Vulnerable in silence: Paediatric health in the Ukrainian crisis

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a humanitarian disaster. It has a wide-ranging impact on the livelihood and the health of those affected by the war. In the midst of constant shelling and casualties, children are more vulnerable to injuries, infections, malnutrition, and trauma, all of which can have serious consequences for their physical and mental health. Children, unlike adults, are simply subjected to the horrors of war with no pre-existing ability to deal with the consequences. We hope to highlight the effects of the current Ukrainian war on the health of the paediatric population, with a particular emphasis on surgical care, cancer care, infectious disease, to name a few. We hope to help contextualize future data and encourage the development of a system to protect and serve the war's most vulnerable population.

Early-Life War Exposure and Later-Life Frailty Among Older Adults in Vietnam: Does War Hasten Aging?

OBJECTIVES

To assess the nature and degree of association between exposure to potentially-traumatic wartime experiences in early life, such as living in a heavily bombed region or witnessing death first-hand, and later-life frailty.

METHODS

The Vietnam Health and Aging Study included war survivors in Vietnam, 60+, who completed a survey and health exam between May and August 2018. Latent Class Analysis is used to construct classes exposed to similar numbers and types of wartime experiences. Frailty is measured using a deficit accumulation approach that proxies biological aging. Fractional logit regression associates latent classes with frailty scores. Coefficients are used to calculate predicted frailty scores and expected age at which specific levels of frailty are reached across wartime exposure classes.

RESULTS

LCA yields nine unique wartime exposure classes, ranging from extreme exposure to non-exposed. Higher frailty is found among those with more heavy/severe exposures with a combination of certain types of experiences, including intense bombing, witnessing death first-hand, having experienced sleep disruptions during wartime, and having feared for one's life during war. The difference in frailty-associated aging between the most and least affected individuals is more than 18 years.

DISCUSSION

War trauma hastens aging and warrants greater attention toward long-term implications of war on health among vast post-conflict populations across the globe.