Employment Instability and Fertility in Europe: A Meta-Analysis

Diverse pathways to permanent childlessness in Singapore: A latent class analysis

The proportions of adults reaching midlife without having children have been rising rapidly across the globe, particularly in Asia. However, little is known about the pathways to permanent childlessness within the region's childless population. This study utilized latent class analysis (LCA) to typologize pathways to childlessness based on dynamic characteristics of multiple life domains (i.e., partnership, education, and occupation) among 489 childless Singaporeans aged 50 and above from a 2022 nationwide survey. Additionally, we utilized multinomial logistic regressions to examine the sociodemographic correlates of pathway profiles and Shannon's entropy index to assess the heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness among successive cohorts. Results revealed five distinct profiles of pathways to childlessness: the Never-Married Semi-Professionals, the Low-Flex Blue-Collars, the Highly Educated Professionals, the Ever-Married Semi-Professionals, and the Flexible Blue-Collars. These pathway profiles were significantly associated with sociodemographic characteristics such as gender and family background. Women's pathways to childlessness were more standardized and heavily influenced by partnership characteristics, compared to those of men. The childless from privileged family background were less likely to follow pathways characterized by disadvantageous education and occupational status. There were also rising trends of voluntary childlessness among married childless individuals and increasing heterogeneity in pathways to childlessness across successive birth cohorts. In sum, our findings are consistent with some of the predictions of the Second Demographic Transition theory, suggesting that Singapore may be experiencing a demographic transition characterized by rising childlessness, decoupling of marriage and childbearing, and de-standardization of the life course.

Partner's unemployment and subjective well-being: The mediating role of relationship functioning

Unemployment affects not only the subjective well-being of the individual, but also that of the partner. Based on the life course perspective and the spillover-crossover-model, we examine the mediating role of relationship functioning for such crossover effects of partner's unemployment on subjective well-being. We also test whether gender differences in the mechanism of relationship functioning can explain the larger overall crossover effects on women compared to men. We use data from the German Family Panel pairfam (2008/09-2018/19), which provide more direct and comprehensive measures of relationship functioning than previous research, and allow us to examine couples' communication and interactions, their conflict styles and behaviors, relationship satisfaction, and perceived relationship instability as mediators. To analyze the impact of the partner's transition to unemployment on subjective well-being, we use fixed effects panel regression models and the product method of mediation analysis to estimate the indirect effects of relationship functioning. The results show that a partner's transition to unemployment has a negative impact on one's own well-being. The effects are more pronounced for women than men which can be partly explained by gender-specific effects of the partner's unemployment on various aspects of relationship functioning, rather than by differential effects of the latter on one's own well-being.

Family Life Courses, Uncertain Futures, and the Changing World of Work: State-of-the-Art and Prospects

Labour markets in post-industrial countries have been undergoing tremendous transformations in the last two decades, substantially changing the conditions in which young adults take family decisions and raise children. Whilst these changes create new opportunities, they also generate risks which potentially foster uncertain futures and affect individuals' opportunities to earn income, provide care for family members, and make long-term commitments. This Special Issue aims to stimulate the debate on the effects of rapid labour market transformations and growing uncertainty on families in contemporary wealthiest countries. Its articles suggest that economic uncertainty, the threat of unemployment or precarious employment, and financial difficulties lead to fertility postponement and increase the risk of union disruption. These effects intensify when labour market deregulation goes in tandem with labour market dualization and become more pronounced during periods of economic hardship, such as economic recessions or the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the effects of economic activity on family-related behaviours have become less gendered as women increasingly gain economic independence. Finally, it appears that highly educated workers and members of the upper social classes face increasingly better conditions for realising their fertility intentions than their lower-educated counterparts and those of the lower social classes. In this introductory article, we review the theoretical premises and the empirical evidence to provide a comprehensive background on what labour force participation and its conditions imply for family life courses. We then introduce the articles collected in this Special Issue and conclude with a discussion on prospects for future research.

A Precarious Path to Partnership? The Moderating Effects of Labour Market Regulations on the Relationship Between Unstable Employment and Union Formation in Europe

Rising employment uncertainty featured by higher risks of being temporarily employed or unemployed is often seen as the driving force behind delayed and declined partnering in Western countries. However, such an employment-partnering relationship is contextualized by labour market institutions and thus could diverge across countries over time. This paper aims to investigate how country-level variations in labour market regulations moderate individual-level effects of unstable employment on union formation, including the transitions into marriage or cohabitation unions. Using comparative panel data for 26 countries from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (the years 2010-2019), our multilevel fixed effects models showed that temporary employment and unemployment negatively affected the probability of union formation for single women and men in Europe. Moreover, the negative relationship between unstable employment and union formation was reinforced when labour market reforms were stimulating insider-outsider segregations or decreasing welfare provisions. Specifically, stricter employment protection legislations and higher coverage rates of collective bargaining agreements could reinforce the negative effects of temporary employment and unemployment on union formation, while more generous provisions of unemployment benefits could buffer such negative effects.

Social Climate, Uncertainty and Fertility Intentions: from the Great Recession to the Covid-19 Crisis

The literature on fertility in context of crises considers major crises exclusively as economic experiences, however, they are also social phenomena, affecting communities, morality and social interactions. When changes in the social climate are of a sufficient magnitude, they tend to break down the social fabric and generate additional uncertainty, more of a social form, which may affect reproductive decisions beyond economic uncertainty alone. Applying Fixed Effects Models to 18 waves of the Swiss Household Panel (2004-2021), this study evaluates the relationship between changes in social climate and social uncertainty and first and second order childbearing intentions, net of economic uncertainty, sociodemographic determinants and unobserved time-invariant individual and local area characteristics. Canton-level mean and variance of generalized trust and optimism about the future are used as proxies of the quality and the unpredictability of the social climate respondents live in. Besides parity, the study explores period variation by comparing the time around the Great Recession (before, during and after) and the years around the Covid-19 pandemic. Results show that the worsening of the social climate and its growing uncertainty correlate with lower and more uncertain first and second birth intentions. Yet, important parity-period interactions emerge.

The Gender Wage Gap and Parenthood: Occupational Characteristics Across European Countries

Different strands of research analyse gender occupational differences and how they relate to differential earnings, especially among parents juggling family demands. We use rich data from PIAAC across a subset of European countries and match occupational characteristics to individuals' jobs using the O*NET database to analyse, first, whether there are gender differences in the occupational characteristics of jobs, particularly among parents, and second, whether the return to key occupational characteristics varies by gender. Compared to men, women's jobs generally require more contact with others, less autonomy in decision-making, and less time pressure. In addition, positions held by mothers involve both less leadership expectations and less intensive use of machines than those held by fathers. Further, mothers receive a lower return to both of these occupational characteristics than fathers do. Finally, even though gaps in occupational characteristics such as leadership jointly with the differential sorting of mothers and fathers across sectors explain part of the gender wage gap in Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition models, especially in Continental Europe, a large share remains unexplained particularly in Eastern and Southern European countries.

Employment Instability and Childbirth over the Last 20 Years in Italy

Family formation is fostered by circumstances of plannability and economic and social stability. Conversely, as documented in previous literature, employment instability can hamper fertility decisions. Based on data from the Italian Labour Force Survey, this paper examines the association between employment-related instability and the likelihood of having a first or additional child from 2000 to 2020 in Italy, covering a period characterised by increasing labour market deregulation. Our results show that individual employment instability, such as temporary employment or unemployment, negatively influences the likelihood of having a first and second child, while the progression to higher parities is less affected by employment situations. Building upon previous research, we demonstrate how the negative association between fertility and employment instability has intensified over recent decades, especially for women. The large sample size also allowed for the examination of specific differences by educational levels and both partners' employment situation. In contrast to traditional views about gender roles, the employment situation of one's partner seems to matter less for women than for men.

Life-course insecurity among young adults: Evidence for variation by employment status?

Previous research suggests that lack of employment security can lead young adults to experience a higher degree of insecurity with regard to their future life. We test the relationship between life-course insecurity, i.e. worrisome feelings with regard to one's own future, and young adults' employment status using a newly developed measurement instrument. Furthermore, we examine whether, in terms of life-course insecurity, specific groups of young people are more affected by insecure employment conditions based on their structural position. Survey data (n = 1087) were collected within a Dutch representative panel among those aged 18-35. Structural equation modelling is used to construct latent dependent variables for experienced insecurity in four life domains, namely 'work', 'finances', 'partner and family' and 'leisure and personal development'. Results show that, while controlling for gender, life phase, education level and level of neuroticism, lack of employment is associated with higher insecurity in all four domains of life. Precarious employment based on a flexible contract is associated with higher insecurity regarding 'work', 'finances' and 'partner and family'. Moreover, we find the relationship between lack of employment and life-course insecurity to be stronger for young people in the 26-35 age bracket. However, higher educational attainment does not attenuate the positive relationship between precarious employment and life-course insecurity. The findings of this study inform our theoretical understanding of agency within the life course of young adults by signaling insecure labour market attachment as a potential constraint to formulating plans for the future.

Employment Protection Legislation, Labour Market Dualism, and Fertility in Europe

Theoretically, whether a more loosely regulated labour market inhibits or fosters fertility in a society is ambiguous. Empirically, the few studies analysing the relationship between the strictness of employment protection legislation-the norms and procedures regulating labour markets' hiring and firing processes-and fertility have found mixed evidence. This paper reconciles the ambivalent conclusions of previous studies by analysing the impact of employment protection legislation and labour market dualism on total fertility across 19 European countries between 1990 and 2019. Our results indicate that an increase in employment protection for regular workers positively affects total fertility. Nonetheless, an increasing gap between the regulation of regular and temporary employment-that is, labour market dualism-negatively impacts total fertility. These effects, of small-to-moderate intensity, are relatively homogeneous across age groups and geographical areas and are especially pronounced among the lower educated. We conclude that labour market dualism, rather than a "rigid" employment protection legislation, discourages fertility.

Industrial Robots and Regional Fertility in European Countries

In this study, we examine whether the long-term structural changes in the labour market, driven by automation, affect fertility. The adoption of industrial robots is used as a proxy for these changes. It has tripled since the mid-1990s in the EU, tremendously changing the conditions of participating in the labour market. On the one hand, new jobs are created, benefitting largely the highly skilled workers. On the other hand, the growing turnover in the labour market and changing content of jobs induce fears of job displacement and make workers continuously adjust to new requirements (reskill, upskill, increase work efforts). The consequences of these changes are particularly strong for the employment and earning prospects of low and middle-educated workers. Our focus is on six European countries: Czechia, France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. We link regional data on fertility and employment structures by industry from Eurostat (NUTS-2) with data on robot adoption from the International Federation of Robotics. We estimate fixed effects linear models with instrumental variables in order to account for the external shocks which may affect fertility and robot adoption in parallel. Our findings suggest robots tend to exert a negative impact on fertility in highly industrialised regions, regions with relatively low educated populations and those which are technologically less advanced. At the same time, better educated and prospering regions may even experience fertility improvements as a result of technological change. The family and labour market institutions of the country may further moderate these effects.

Second Birth Fertility in Germany: Social Class, Gender, and the Role of Economic Uncertainty

Building on a thick strand of the literature on the determinants of higher-order births, this study uses a gender and class perspective to analyse second birth progression rates in Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel from 1990 to 2020, individuals are classified based on their occupation into: upper service, lower service, skilled manual/higher-grade routine nonmanual, and semi-/unskilled manual/lower-grade routine nonmanual classes. Results highlight the "economic advantage" of men and women in service classes who experience strongly elevated second birth rates. Finally, we demonstrate that upward career mobility post-first birth is associated with higher second birth rates, particularly among men.

The impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions

Lockdown edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to concerns about consequences for childbirth plans and decisions. Robust empirical research to either refute or confirm these concerns, however, is lacking. To evaluate the causal impact of lockdowns on fertility, we exploited a large sample of Australians (aged 18-45) from a nationally representative household panel survey and leveraged variation from a unique natural experiment that occurred in Australia in 2020: a lockdown imposed in the state of Victoria, but not elsewhere in Australia. Difference-in-differences models were estimated comparing changes in fertility intentions of persons who resided in Victoria during lockdown, or within four weeks of the lockdown being lifted, and those living elsewhere in Australia. Results revealed a significantly larger decline in reported intentions of having another child among women who lived through the protracted lockdown. The average effect was small, with fertility intentions estimated to fall by between 2.8% and 4.3% of the pre-pandemic mean. This negative effect was, however, more pronounced among those aged over 35 years, the less educated, and those employed on fixed-term contracts. Impacts on men's fertility intentions were generally negligible, but with a notable exception being Indigenous Australians.

Measuring the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility in low-fertility contexts: an overview of existing measures

Numerous studies aim to connect negative fertility desires and outcomes with employment conditions deemed to be uncertain. However, there is a lack of consensus about how to define, conceptualise, and measure employment uncertainty. This paper considers issues surrounding the conceptualisation of employment uncertainty. It then reviews existing measures of employment uncertainty in the context of fertility decisions. Finally, it raises considerations about their use. While some aspects of employment uncertainty are well studied, there are still gaps between theory and empirical evidence. Researchers should be aware of existing population heterogeneity, contextual factors, and model selection when considering their conceptualisation of employment uncertainty.

The agency of fertility plans

Fertility plans are a prominent area for agency research, and are a clear example of a misalignment between resources and agency capacity. We relied both on the idea of conversion factors of the Capability Approach and the pragmatist tradition of temporal-oriented agency to propose a framework for the study of fertility agency as the conversion process of resources into plans and behavior. We outlined said framework by using a unique dataset on fertility plans composed of open and closed questions from an Italian sample. Economic factors and imaginaries related to children and family represented the vast majority of (hindering and enabling) conversion factors. The notion of conversion factors is crucial for disentangling the network of heterogeneous elements involved in fertility agency: it allows focus to be shifted from structural factors related to social position and psychological characteristics to more situated elements that enable agency capacity.

Employment uncertainty and fertility intentions: Stability or resilience?

The role of employment uncertainty as a fertility driver has previously been studied with a limited set of constructs, leading to inconclusive results. We address this oversight by considering perceived stability of employment and perceived resilience to potential job loss as two key dimensions of employment uncertainty in relation to fertility decision-making. The present study relies on the 2017 Italian Trustlab survey and its employment uncertainty module. We find that perception of resilience to job loss is a powerful predictor of fertility intentions, whereas perception of employment stability has only a limited impact. The observed relationship between resilience and fertility intentions is robust to the inclusion of person-specific risk attitude and does not depend on the unemployment rate or the share of fixed-term contracts in the area of residence. We conclude that the notion of employment uncertainty includes distinct expectations towards the future, which should be considered separately to understand fertility decision-making.Supplementary material for this article is available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2021.1939406.

Effects of pandemics uncertainty on fertility

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected various dimensions of the economies and societies. At this juncture, this paper examines the effects of pandemics-related uncertainty on fertility in the panel dataset of 126 countries from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the World Pandemics Uncertainty Indices are used to measure the pandemics-related uncertainty. The novel empirical evidence is that pandemics-related uncertainty decreases fertility rates. These results are robust to estimate different models and include various controls. We also try to explain why the rise in uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in the fertility decline.

Partnership dynamics and the fertility gap between Sweden and Spain

Below-replacement fertility has persisted across European countries for a few decades, though, with variation. Delays in age at first union and first birth have been key factors in the declining fertility levels within these societies. While the vast majority of births occurs within a stable partnership, the link between partnership formation and childbearing is rarely taken into account. In this paper, we examine the role of partnership formation in explaining the gap between Sweden and Spain regarding transitions to first birth. We utilize data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey and the 2012/2013 Swedish Generations and Gender Survey to explore transition probabilities to first birth and implement Kitagawa decomposition and standardization techniques. Results show that having a partner is a strong predictor of becoming a first-time parent in the next 3 years, mainly within the ages 25 to 35. On average, Swedish first-birth transition probabilities for women are only 12% higher than probabilities of Spanish counterparts within this age range, suggesting that the proportion of partnerships formed plays a crucial role in explaining the fertility gap. Decomposition results confirm that before age 30, 74% of the difference in first-order births among women are due to the difference in partnership composition. We further find that earlier union formation in Spain could potentially reduce childlessness levels. Overall, our study highlights the importance of examining the role of partnership dynamics in fertility studies.

Female employment and first childbirth in Italy: what news?

In the last decades, female participation in the labour market has been found to be increasingly associated with higher fertility levels in high-income countries—albeit to a lesser extent in countries characterised by poor welfare support to working mothers. Among the latter camp, Italy is an intriguing case study, which is marked by lower female labour force participation and fertility rates when compared to most other European countries. Recent macro-level evidence suggests that a reverse in the female employment/fertility relationship is gradually taking place in Italy, driven largely by the Northern regions. However, the evolution of the relationship between female employment and fertility has (to the best of my knowledge) never been addressed at the micro-level. Through the use of individual-level retrospective data, this study analyses the link between female employment and fertility, paying special attention to differences between Northern and Southern Italy, and its evolution over time. The results suggest that female employment began to be positively associated to fertility at the individual level, both in Northern and Southern Italy (although to slightly different extents), from 2010 onwards.

Narratives of the Future Affect Fertility: Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment

In recent years, fertility rates have declined in most wealthy countries. This phenomenon has largely been explained by focusing on the rise of economic uncertainty. We contribute to this debate by arguing that, under uncertain conditions, narratives of the future-i.e., socially conveyed imagined futures-impact individuals' decision-making about childbearing. To assess this impact, we conducted (for the first time in fertility intention research) a controlled laboratory experiment in two contrasting settings: Florence (Italy, N = 800) and Oslo (Norway, N = 874). Individuals were randomly exposed to a specific positive or negative future economic scenario (treatments) and were compared with individuals who were not exposed to any scenario (control group). Participants were then asked whether they intended to have a child in the next three years. The results showed a clear causal impact of narratives of the future on fertility intentions among the participants. Moreover, when the actual economic condition at the macro- (country context) or micro-level (labor-market status and characteristics) was more favorable, negative narratives of the future played a more crucial role. Conversely, when the actual economic conditions were less favorable, positive narratives of the future proved especially important. We conclude that, in the era of global uncertainty, individuals respond to more than their actual situation and constraints; narratives of the future create a distance experience from the daily routine that plays a potent role by inhibiting or facilitating fertility decision-making.

Detecting economic insecurity in Italy: a latent transition modelling approach

Economic insecurity has increased in importance in the understanding of economic and socio-demographic household behaviour. The present paper aims to analyse patterns of household economic insecurity over the years 2004–2015 by using the longitudinal section of the Italian SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Conditions) survey. In the identification of economic insecurity statuses, we used indicators of economic hardship in a latent transition approach in order to: (i) classify Italian households into homogenous classes characterised by different levels of economic insecurity, (ii) assess whether changes in latent class membership occurred in the selected time span, and (iii) evaluate the effect of employment status and characteristics of individuals on latent status membership. Empirical findings uncovered five latent statuses of economic insecurity from the best situation to the worst. The levels of economic insecurity remained quite stable over the period considered, but a non-negligible worsening can be detected for the unemployed and individuals with part-time jobs.

Work and fertility in Taiwan: how do women's and men's career sequences associate with fertility outcomes?

There has been much debate over the micro-level relationship between employment situations and fertility in Europe and Northern America. However, related research in East Asia is scant, although countries in this region have some of the lowest fertility rates in the world. Moreover, most studies analyse the employment-fertility relationship from a static perspective and only for women, which underemphasises life course dynamics and gender heterogeneity of employment careers and their fertility implications. Drawing on retrospective data from the 2017 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSCS), this study explores women's and men's career trajectories between ages 18 and 40 in Taiwan using sequence cluster analyses. It also examines how career variations associate with different timing and quantum of birth. Empirical results show that economically inactive women experience faster motherhood transitions and have more children by age 40 than women with stable full-time careers. For men, having an unstable career associates with slower fatherhood transitions and a lower number of children. For both genders, self-employed people are the earliest in parenthood transitions and have the highest number of children by midlife. Our findings demonstrate sharp gender contrasts in employment careers and their diversified fertility implications in low-fertility Taiwan.

The Changing Association Between Homeownership and the Transition to Parenthood

The literature suggests a positive link between homeownership and the transition to parenthood. However, in recent decades, couples' preference for becoming homeowners before having their first child has been undermined by rising housing unaffordability and housing uncertainty. An archetypal example is Britain, where homeownership rates among young adults have fallen substantially as a result of low wages, unemployment, reductions in the availability of mortgage credit, and rising house prices. This situation has produced a housing crisis. Using longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) and the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (2009-2016), we apply multilevel, discrete-time event-history techniques to a sample of women aged 18-42. We investigate whether and how the link between homeownership and entering parenthood has changed in Britain in recent decades. Our findings reveal that in comparison with the 1990s, the likelihood of becoming a parent has declined among homeowners, whereas childbearing rates among private renters have remained stable. Thus, owner-occupiers and private renters have become more similar in terms of their likelihood of entering parenthood. Overall, our findings question the classical micro-level assumption of a positive link between homeownership and transition to parenthood, at least among Britain's "Generation Rent." These findings are subsequently interpreted in terms of increased housing uncertainty.