A mathematical model of weight loss under total starvation: evidence against the thrifty-gene hypothesis

The interplay between leptin, glucocorticoids, and GLP1 regulates food intake and feeding behaviour

Nutritional, endocrine, and neurological signals converge in multiple brain centres to control feeding behaviour and food intake as part of the allostatic regulation of energy balance. Among the several neuroendocrine systems involved, the leptin, glucocorticoid, and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP1) systems have been extensively researched. Leptin is at the top hierarchical level since its complete absence is sufficient to trigger severe hyperphagia. Glucocorticoids are key regulators of the energy balance adaptation to stress and their sustained excess leads to excessive adiposity and metabolic perturbations. GLP1 participates in metabolic adaptation to food intake, regulating insulin secretion and satiety by parallel central and peripheral signalling systems. Herein, we review the brain and peripheral targets of these three hormone systems that integrate to regulate food intake, feeding behaviour, and metabolic homeostasis. We examine the functional relationships between leptin, glucocorticoids, and GLP1 at the central and peripheral levels, including the cross-regulation of their circulating levels and their cooperative or antagonistic actions at different brain centres. The pathophysiological roles of these neuroendocrine systems in dysregulated intake are explored in the two extremes of body adiposity - obesity and lipodystrophy - and eating behaviour disorders.

Obesity: an evolutionary context

People completely lacking body fat (lipodystrophy/lipoatrophy) and those with severe obesity both show profound metabolic and other health issues. Regulating levels of body fat somewhere between these limits would, therefore, appear to be adaptive. Two different models might be contemplated. More traditional is a set point (SP) where the levels are regulated around a fixed level. Alternatively, dual-intervention point (DIP) is a system that tolerates fairly wide variation but is activated when critically high or low levels are breached. The DIP system seems to fit our experience much better than an SP, and models suggest that it is more likely to have evolved. A DIP system may have evolved because of two contrasting selection pressures. At the lower end, we may have been selected to avoid low levels of fat as a buffer against starvation, to avoid disease-induced anorexia, and to support reproduction. At the upper end, we may have been selected to avoid excess storage because of the elevated risks of predation. This upper limit of control seems to have malfunctioned because some of us deposit large fat stores, with important negative health effects. Why has evolution not protected us against this problem? One possibility is that the protective system slowly fell apart due to random mutations after we dramatically reduced the risk of being predated during our evolutionary history. By chance, it fell apart more in some people than others, and these people are now unable to effectively manage their weight in the face of the modern food glut. To understand the evolutionary context of obesity, it is important to separate the adaptive reason for storing some fat (i.e. the lower intervention point), from the nonadaptive reason for storing lots of fat (a broken upper intervention point). The DIP model has several consequences, showing how we understand the obesity problem and what happens when we attempt to treat it.

Drosophila as a useful model for understanding the evolutionary physiology of obesity resistance and metabolic thrift

Evolved metabolic thriftiness in humans is a proposed contributor to the obesity epidemic. Insect models have been shown to evolve both 'metabolic thrift' in response to rearing on high-protein diets that promote leanness, and 'obesity resistance' when reared on fattening high-carbohydrate, low-protein foods. Despite the hypothesis that human obesity is caused by evolved metabolic thrift, genetic contributions to this physiological trait remain elusive. Here we conducted a pilot study to determine whether thrift and obesity resistance can arise under laboratory based 'quasi-natural selection' in the genetic model organism Drosophila melanogaster. We found that both these traits can evolve within 16 generations. Contrary to predictions from the 'thrifty genotype/phenotype' hypothesis, we found that when animals from a metabolic thrift inducing high-protein environment are mismatched to fattening high-carbohydrate foods, they did not become 'obese'. Rather, they accumulate less triglyceride than control animals, not more. We speculate that this may arise through as yet un-quantified parental effects - potentially epigenetic. This study establishes that D. melanogaster could be a useful model for elucidating the role of the trans- and inter-generational effects of diet on the genetics of metabolic traits in higher animals.

From famine to therapeutic weight loss: Hunger, psychological responses, and energy balance-related behaviors

Understanding physiological and behavioral responses to energy imbalances is important for the management of overweight/obesity and undernutrition. Changes in body composition and physiological functions associated with energy imbalances provide the structural and functional context in which to consider psychological and behavioral responses. Compensatory changes in physiology and behavior are more pronounced in response to negative than positive energy balances. The physiological and psychological impact of weight loss (WL) occur on a continuum determined by (i) the degree of energy deficit (ED), (ii) its duration, (iii) body composition at the onset of the energy deficit, and (iv) the psychosocial environment in which it occurs. Therapeutic WL and famine/semistarvation both involve prolonged EDs, which are sometimes similar in magnitude. The key differences are that (i) the body mass index (BMI) of most famine victims is lower at the onset of the ED, (ii) therapeutic WL is intentional and (iii) famines are typically longer in duration (partly due to the voluntary nature of therapeutic WL and disengagement with WL interventions). The changes in psychological outcomes, motivation to eat, and energy intake in therapeutic WL are often modest (bearing in mind the nature of the measures used) and can be difficult to detect but are quantitatively significant over time. As WL progresses, these changes become more marked. It appears that extensive WL beyond 10%-20% in lean individuals has profound effects on body composition and physiological function. At this level of WL, there is a marked erosion of psychological functioning, which appears to run in parallel to WL. Psychological resources dwindle and become increasingly focused on alleviating escalating hunger and food seeking behavior. Functional changes in fat-free mass, characterized by catabolism of skeletal muscle and organs may be involved in the drive to eat associated with semistarvation. Higher levels of body fat mass may act as a buffer to protect fat-free mass, functional integrity and limit compensatory changes in energy balance behaviors. The increase in appetite that accompanies therapeutic WL appears to be very different to the intense and all-consuming drive to eat that occurs during prolonged semistarvation. The mechanisms may also differ but are not well understood, and longitudinal comparisons of the relationship between body structure, function, and behavior in response to differing EDs in those with higher and lower BMIs are currently lacking.

Claims of anomalously long fasting: An assessment of the evidence from investigated cases

BACKGROUND

Throughout history and to the present day, there have been reports of people claiming inedia, i.e., an anomalous long-term abstinence from food or from food and fluid. Some were isolated and monitored and their abstinences confirmed. This raises the question of whether there may be an anomaly with wide implications that science has overlooked. On the other hand, there have been cases of exposed fraud. The reports on the studies are scattered and it can be difficult to judge their rigor and the strength and implications of their evidence. A critical evaluation seems useful.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to obtain an overview of investigated cases of claimed inedia, to assess the anomaly of the claims and study results, to assess the quality of the studies, and to identify deception methods to inform future safeguards.

METHOD

I developed criteria for differentiating normal from anomalous nutrition and fasting and for assessing the quality of inedia studies. Studies found through a systematic search were then assessed and the features of cases of fraud extracted.

RESULTS

47 eligible investigations of 38 claimants were found. Out of the 38 cases, results were assessed as (seemingly) anomalous in 11, with nine cases of monitored food and fluid deprivation ranging from 14 to 68 days (median 28 days), and two cases of food deprivation for 365 and 411 days. In 17 cases, anomaly was assessed as not confirmed due to issues with study design or reporting. Fraud was established in 10 cases. Deception methods were creative. Post-1900 studies were also assessed for quality. Quality was not considered adequate in any.

CONCLUSIONS

I consider the evidential status of inedia unconfirmed as no assessed study had both anomalous findings and impeccable quality. However, quality was often downgraded due to reporting issues and it cannot be concluded in reverse that all claimants with anomalous results were able to deceive the investigators. The results of many studies are curious and demand further research. The conducted analysis provides guidance for improving rigor and transparency in future studies.

Control-theory models of body-weight regulation and body-weight-regulatory appetite

Human body weight (BW), or some variable related to it, is physiologically regulated. That is, negative feedback from changes in BW elicits compensatory influences on appetite, which may be called BW-regulatory appetite, and a component of energy expenditure (EE) called adaptive thermogenesis (AdEE). BW-regulatory appetite is of general significance because it appears to be related to a variety of aspects of human appetite beyond just energy intake. BW regulation, BW-regulatory appetite and AdEE are frequently discussed using concepts derived from control theory, which is the mathematical description of dynamic systems involving negative feedback. The aim of this review is to critically assess these discussions. Two general types of negative-feedback control have been invoked to describe BW regulation, set-point control and simple negative-feedback control, often called settling-point control in the BW literature. The distinguishing feature of set-point systems is the existence of an externally controlled target level of regulation, the set point. The performance of almost any negative-feedback regulatory system, however, can be modeled on the basis of feedback gain without including a set point. In both set-point and simple negative-feedback models of BW regulation, the precision of regulation is usually determined mainly by feedback gain, which refers to the transformations of feedback into compensatory changes in BW-regulatory appetite and AdEE. Stable BW most probably represents equilibria shaped by feedback gain and tonic open-loop challenges, especially obesogenic environments. Data indicate that simple negative-feedback control accurately models human BW regulation and that the set-point concept is superfluous unless its neuroendocrine representation is found in the brain. Additional research aimed at testing control-theory models in humans and non-human animals is warranted.

Predictive Mathematical Models of Weight Loss

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Validated thermodynamic energy balance models that predict weight change are ever more in use today. Delivery of model predictions using web-based applets and/or smart phones has transformed these models into viable clinical tools. Here, we provide the general framework for thermodynamic energy balance model derivation and highlight differences between thermodynamic energy balance models using four representatives.

RECENT FINDINGS

Energy balance models have been used to successfully improve dietary adherence, estimate the magnitude of food waste, and predict dropout from clinical weight loss trials. They are also being used to generate hypotheses in nutrition experiments. Applications of thermodynamic energy balance weight change prediction models range from clinical applications to modify behavior to deriving epidemiological conclusions. Novel future applications involve using these models to design experiments and provide support for treatment recommendations.

Revisiting the evolutionary origins of obesity: lazy versus peppy-thrifty genotype hypothesis

The recent global obesity epidemic is attributed to major societal and environmental changes, such as excessive energy intake and sedentary lifestyle. However, exposure to 'obesogenic' environments does not necessarily result in obesity at the individual level, as 40-75% of body mass index variation in population is attributed to genetic differences. The thrifty genotype theory posits that genetic variants promoting efficient food sequestering and optimal deposition of fat during periods of food abundance were evolutionarily advantageous for the early hunter-gatherer and were positively selected. However, the thrifty genotype is likely too simplistic and fails to provide a justification for the complex distribution of obesity predisposing gene variants and for the broad range of body mass index observed in diverse ethnic groups. This review proposes that gene pleiotropy may better account for the variability in the distribution of obesity susceptibility alleles across modern populations. We outline the lazy-thrifty versus peppy-thrifty genotype hypothesis and detail the body of evidence in the literature in support of this novel concept. Future population genetics and mathematical modelling studies that account for pleiotropy may further improve our understanding of the evolutionary origins of the current obesity epidemic.

On the origin of obesity: identifying the biological, environmental and cultural drivers of genetic risk among human populations

Genetic predisposition to obesity presents a paradox: how do genetic variants with a detrimental impact on human health persist through evolutionary time? Numerous hypotheses, such as the thrifty genotype hypothesis, attempt to explain this phenomenon yet fail to provide a justification for the modern obesity epidemic. In this critical review, we appraise existing theories explaining the evolutionary origins of obesity and explore novel biological and sociocultural agents of evolutionary change to help explain the modern-day distribution of obesity-predisposing variants. Genetic drift, acting as a form of 'blind justice,' may randomly affect allele frequencies across generations while gene pleiotropy and adaptations to diverse environments may explain the rise and subsequent selection of obesity risk alleles. As an adaptive response, epigenetic regulation of gene expression may impact the manifestation of genetic predisposition to obesity. Finally, exposure to malnutrition and disease epidemics in the wake of oppressive social systems, culturally mediated notions of attractiveness and desirability, and diverse mating systems may play a role in shaping the human genome. As an important first step towards the identification of important drivers of obesity gene evolution, this review may inform empirical research focused on testing evolutionary theories by way of population genetics and mathematical modelling.

Previous Repeated Exposure to Food Limitation Enables Rats to Spare Lipid Stores during Prolonged Starvation

The risk of food limitation and, ultimately, starvation dates back to the dawn of heterotrophy in animals, yet starvation remains a major factor in the regulation of modern animal populations. Researchers studying starvation more than a century ago suggested that animals subjected to sublethal periods of food limitation are somehow more tolerant of subsequent starvation events. This possibility has received little attention over the past decades, yet it is highly relevant to modern science for two reasons. First, animals in natural populations are likely to be exposed to bouts of food limitation once or more before they face prolonged starvation, during which the risk of mortality becomes imminent. Second, our current approach to studying starvation physiology in the laboratory focuses on nourished animals with no previous exposure to nutritional stress. We examined the relationship between previous exposure to food limitation and potentially adaptive physiological responses to starvation in adult rats and found several significant differences. On two occasions, rats were fasted until they lost 20% of their body mass maintained lower body temperatures, and had presumably lower energy requirements when subjected to prolonged starvation than their naive cohort that never experienced food limitation. These rats that were trained in starvation also had lower plasma glucose set -points and reduced their reliance on endogenous lipid oxidation. These findings underscore (1) the need for biologists to revisit the classic hypothesis that animals can become habituated to starvation, using a modern set of research tools; and (2) the need to design controlled experiments of starvation physiology that more closely resemble the dynamic nature of food availability.

Case of Fatal Starvation: Can Stable Isotope Analysis Serve to Support Morphological Diagnosis and Approximate the Length of Starvation?

The diagnosis of death as a result of starvation is established on anthropological measurements, visual appearance of the deceased on external and internal examination, microscopic analysis, laboratory testing, and exclusion of other causes of death. Herein, we present our findings on a case of 95-year-old man who died of starvation. After the diagnosis of starvation was established by traditional forensic medicine methods, we have conducted retrospective segmental analysis of stable carbon (δ¹³ C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵ N) isotope ratios in hair sample. This method reveals periods of starvation through decrease in δ¹³ C and increase in δ¹⁵ N along the strand of hair. Our analysis revealed the decrease of 0.6 ‰ in δ¹³ C during the last 10-12 weeks prior to death, similar as reported in other investigations. Also, a decrease of 0.7 ‰ in δ¹⁵ N during the last 8-10 weeks prior to death was determined that was different than observed in previous studies.

Analysis of Positive Selection at Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms Associated with Body Mass Index Does Not Support the "Thrifty Gene" Hypothesis

The "thrifty gene hypothesis" suggests genetic susceptibility to obesity arises because of positive selection for alleles that favored fat deposition and survival during famines. We used public domain data to locate signatures of positive selection based on derived allele frequency, genetic diversity, long haplotypes, and differences between populations at SNPs identified in genome-wide association studies (GWASs) for BMI. We used SNPs near the lactase (LCT), SLC24A5, and SLC45A2 genes as positive controls and 120 randomly selected SNPs as negative controls. We found evidence for positive selection (p < 0.05) at nine out of 115 BMI SNPs. However, five of these involved positive selection for the protective allele (i.e., for leanness). The widespread absence of signatures of positive selection, combined with selection favoring leanness at some alleles, does not support the suggestion that obesity provided a selective advantage to survive famines, or any other selective advantage.

An Overview of Murine High Fat Diet as a Model for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a worldwide epidemic, which by all predictions will only increase. To help in combating the devastating array of phenotypes associated with T2DM a highly reproducible and human disease-similar mouse model is required for researchers. The current options are genetic manipulations to cause T2DM symptoms or diet induced obesity and T2DM symptoms. These methods to model human T2DM have their benefits and their detractions. As far as modeling the majority of T2DM cases, HFD establishes the proper etiological, pathological, and treatment options. A limitation of HFD is that it requires months of feeding to achieve the full spectrum of T2DM symptoms and no standard protocol has been established. This paper will attempt to rectify the last limitation and argue for a standard group of HFD protocols and standard analysis procedures.

Mind the gap: race/ethnic and socioeconomic disparities in obesity

Race/ethnic and socioeconomic status (SES) disparities in obesity are substantial and may widen in the future. We review nine potential mechanisms that recent research has used to explain obesity disparities. Those nine mechanisms fall into three broad groups-health behaviors, biological factors, and the social environment-which incorporate both proximate and upstream determinants of obesity disparities. Efforts to reduce the prevalence of obesity in the US population and to close race/ethnic and SES disparities in obesity will likely require the use of multifaceted interventions that target multiple mechanisms simultaneously. Unfortunately, relatively few of the mechanisms reviewed herein have been tested in an intervention framework.

Metabolic adaptation to caloric restriction and subsequent refeeding: the Minnesota Starvation Experiment revisited

BACKGROUND

Adaptive thermogenesis (AT) is the fat-free mass (FFM)-independent reduction of resting energy expenditure (REE) to caloric restriction (CR). AT attenuates weight loss and favors weight regain. Its variance, dynamics, and control remain obscure.

OBJECTIVES

Our aims were to address the variance and kinetics of AT, its associations with body composition in the context of endocrine determinants, and its effect on weight regain.

DESIGN

Thirty-two nonobese men underwent sequential overfeeding (1 wk at +50% of energy needs), CR (3 wk at -50% of energy needs), and refeeding (2 wk at +50% of energy needs). AT and its determinants were measured together with body composition as assessed with the use of quantitative magnetic resonance, whole-body MRI, isotope dilution, and nitrogen and fluid balances.

RESULTS

Changes in body weight were +1.8 kg (overfeeding), -6.0 kg (CR), and +3.5 kg (refeeding). CR reduced fat mass and FFM by 114 and 159 g/d, respectively. Within FFM, skeletal muscle (-5%), liver (-13%), and kidneys (-8%) decreased. CR also led to reductions in REE (-266 kcal/d), respiratory quotient (-15%), heart rate (-14%), blood pressure (-7%), creatinine clearance (-12%), energy cost of walking (-22%), activity of the sympathetic nervous system (SNS) (-38%), and plasma leptin (-44%), insulin (-54%), adiponectin (-49%), 3,5,3'-tri-iodo-thyronine (T3) (-39%), and testosterone (-11%). AT was 108 kcal/d or 48% of the decrease in REE. Changes in FFM composition explained 36 kcal, which left 72 kcal/d for true AT. The decrease in AT became significant at ≤3 d of CR and was related to decreases in insulin secretion (r = 0.92, P < 0.001), heart rate (r = 0.60, P < 0.05), creatinine clearance (r = 0.79, P < 0.05), negative fluid balance (r = 0.51, P < 0.01), and the free water clearance rate (r = -0.90, P < 0.002). SNS activity and plasma leptin, ghrelin, and T3 and their changes with CR were not related to AT.

CONCLUSION

During early weight loss, AT is associated with a fall in insulin secretion and body fluid balance. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01737034.

Pacific Populations, Metabolic Disease and 'Just-So Stories': A Critique of the 'Thrifty Genotype' Hypothesis in Oceania

Pacific populations have long been observed to suffer a high burden of metabolic disease, including obesity, type 2 diabetes and gout. The 'Thrifty Genotype' hypothesis has frequently been used to explain this high prevalence of disease. Here, the 'Thrifty Genotype' hypothesis and the evolutionary background of Pacific populations are examined. We question its relevance not only in the Pacific region but more generally. Not only has the hypothesis not been explicitly tested, but most archaeological and anthropological data from the Pacific fundamentally do not support its application.

The relationship of female physical attractiveness to body fatness

Aspects of the female body may be attractive because they signal evolutionary fitness. Greater body fatness might reflect greater potential to survive famines, but individuals carrying larger fat stores may have poor health and lower fertility in non-famine conditions. A mathematical statistical model using epidemiological data linking fatness to fitness traits, predicted a peaked relationship between fatness and attractiveness (maximum at body mass index (BMI) = 22.8 to 24.8 depending on ethnicity and assumptions). Participants from three Caucasian populations (Austria, Lithuania and the UK), three Asian populations (China, Iran and Mauritius) and four African populations (Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and Senegal) rated attractiveness of a series of female images varying in fatness (BMI) and waist to hip ratio (WHR). There was an inverse linear relationship between physical attractiveness and body fatness or BMI in all populations. Lower body fat was more attractive, down to at least BMI = 19. There was no peak in the relationship over the range we studied in any population. WHR was a significant independent but less important factor, which was more important (greater r (2)) in African populations. Predictions based on the fitness model were not supported. Raters appeared to use body fat percentage (BF%) and BMI as markers of age. The covariance of BF% and BMI with age indicates that the role of body fatness alone, as a marker of attractiveness, has been overestimated.

Carbon stable-isotope tracking in breath for comparative studies of fuel use

Almost half a century ago, researchers demonstrated that the ratio of stable carbon isotopes in exhaled breath of rats and humans could reveal the oxidation of labeled substrates in vivo, opening a new chapter in the study of fuel use, the fate of ingested substrates, and aerobic metabolism. Until recently, the combined use of respirometry and stable-isotope tracer techniques had not been broadly employed to study fuel use in other animal groups. In this review, we summarize the history of this approach in human and animal research and define best practices that maximize its utility. We also summarize several case studies that use stable-isotope measurements of breath to explore the limits of aerobic metabolism and substrate turnover among several species and various physiological states. We highlight the importance of a comparative approach in revealing the profound effects that phylogeny, ecology, and behavior can have in shaping aerobic metabolism and energetics as well as the fundamental biological principles that underlie fuel use and metabolic function across taxa. New analytical equipment and refinement of methodology make the combined use of respirometry and stable-isotope tracer techniques simpler to perform, less costly, and more field ready than ever before.

If Body Fatness is Under Physiological Regulation, Then How Come We Have an Obesity Epidemic?

Life involves a continuous use of energy, but food intake, which supplies that energy, is episodic. Feeding is switched on and off by a complex array of predominantly gut-derived peptides (and potentially nutrients) that initiate and terminate feeding bouts. Energy is stored as glucose and glycogen to overcome the problem of the episodic nature of intake compared with the continuous demand. Intake is also adjusted to meet immediate changes in demands. Most animals also store energy as fat. In some cases, this serves the purpose of storing energy in anticipation of a known future shortfall (e.g., hibernation, migration, or reproduction). Other animals, however, store fat in the absence of such anticipated needs, and in this case the fat appears to be stored in preparation for unpredictable catastrophic shortfalls in supply. Fat storage, however, brings disadvantages as well as advantages, in particular an increased risk of predation. Hence, many animals seem to have evolved a dual intervention point system preventing them from storing too little or too much fat. The physiological basis of the lower intervention point is well established, but the upper intervention point is much less studied. Human obesity can potentially be understood in an evolutionary context as due to drift in the upper intervention point following release from predation 2 million years ago (the drifty gene hypothesis) combined with a stimulus in modern society to overconsume calories, possibly attempting to satisfy intake of a limiting micro- or macro-nutrient like protein (the protein leverage hypothesis).

Evolutionary perspectives on the obesity epidemic: adaptive, maladaptive, and neutral viewpoints

The prevalence of obesity in modern societies has two major contributory factors-an environmental change that has happened in historical times and a genetic predisposition that has its origins in our evolutionary history. Understanding both aspects is complex. From an evolutionary perspective, three different types of explanation have been proposed. The first is that obesity was once adaptive and enabled us to survive (or sustain fecundity) through periods of famine. People carrying so-called thrifty genes that enabled the efficient storage of energy as fat between famines would be at a selective advantage. In the modern world, however, people who have inherited these genes deposit fat in preparation for a famine that never comes, and the result is widespread obesity. The key problem with this, and any other adaptive scenario, is to understand why, if obesity was historically so advantageous, many people did not inherit these thrifty genes and in modern society are able to remain slim, despite the environmental change favoring fat storage. The second type of explanation is that obesity is not adaptive and may never even have existed in our evolutionary past, but it is favored today as a maladaptive by-product of positive selection on some other trait. An example of this type of explanation is the suggestion that obesity results from variation in brown adipose tissue thermogenesis. Finally, a third class of explanation is that most mutations in the genes that predispose us to obesity are neutral and have been drifting over evolutionary time--so-called drifty genes, leading some individuals to be obesity prone and others obesity resistant. In this article, I review the current evidence for and against these three different scenarios and conclude that the thrifty gene hypothesis is untenable but the other two ideas may provide a cogent explanation of the modern obesity phenomenon.

SEX- AND AGE-RELATED MORTALITY PROFILES DURING FAMINE: TESTING THE ‘BODY FAT’ HYPOTHESIS

During famines females generally have a mortality advantage relative to males, and the highest levels of mortality occur in the very young and the elderly. One popular hypothesis is that the sex differential in mortality may reflect the greater body fatness combined with lower metabolism of females, which may also underpin the age-related patterns of mortality among adults. This study evaluated the ‘body fat’ hypothesis using a previously published and validated mathematical model of survival during total starvation. The model shows that at a given body weight females would indeed be expected to survive considerably longer than males in the absence of food. At a mass of 70 kg for example a female aged 30 would survive for 144 days compared with life expectancy of only 95 days for a male of the same age and weight. This effect is contributed to by both the higher body fatness and lower metabolism of the females at a given body weight. However, females are generally smaller than males and in addition to a sex effect there was also a major effect of body size – heavier individuals survive longer. When this body size effect was removed by considering survival in relation to BMI the sex effect was much reduced, and could be offset by a relatively small difference in pre-famine BMI between the sexes. Nevertheless, combining these predictions with observed mean BMIs of males and females across 48 countries at the low end of the obesity spectrum suggests that in the complete absence of food females would survive on average about 40% longer (range 6 to 64.5%) than males. The energy balance model also predicted that older adult individuals should survive much longer than younger adult individuals, by virtue of their lower resting metabolic rates and lower activity levels. Observations of the female survival advantage in multiple famines span a much wider range than the model prediction (5% to 210%). This suggests in some famines body fatness may be a significant factor influencing the mortality differential between the sexes, but in other famines other factors are likely to be more important. Moreover, the pattern of mortality in relation to age is completely opposite that predicted. These data emphasize the complex nature of famine mortality and suggest that a simple model of energy utilization alone is inadequate to explain the major aspects of this phenomenon.