One-year cardiovascular event rates in Japanese outpatients with myocardial infarction, stroke, and atrial fibrillation. -Results From the Japan Thrombosis Registry for Atrial Fibrillation, Coronary, or Cerebrovascular Events (J-TRACE).-

Risk stratification for cardiovascular disease based on prior coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease and type 2 diabetes mellitus

AIMS/INTRODUCTION

History of coronary artery disease (CAD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), type 2 diabetes and their combined effect on cardiovascular disease are essential for cardiovascular risk management. We investigated the association of prior CAD, prior CeVD, type 2 diabetes and their combination with the risk of cardiovascular disease.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This is a historical cohort study including 342,033 participants (aged 18-72 years) followed up for ≥5 years between 2008 and 2016. Participants were classified into eight groups (with or without prior CAD, prior CeVD and type 2 diabetes). Type 2 Diabetes was defined by fasting plasma glucose and glycated hemoglobin levels, and antidiabetic drug prescription. Prior and subsequent CAD and CeVD were identified according to claims using International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes, medical procedures and questionnaires. Cox regression models were used to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular events.

RESULTS

The median follow-up period was 6.4 years. The incidence of composite cardiovascular events of CAD and CeVD in the CAD-/CeVD-, CAD+/CeVD-, CAD-/CeVD+ and CAD+/CeVD+ groups were 1.92 and 6.94, 25.14 and 31.98 per 1,000 person-years in non-diabetes participants, and 8.66, 18.04, 39.98 and 60.72 in type 2 diabetes patients, respectively. Hazard ratios of cardiovascular events compared with CAD-/CeVD-/non-diabetes were 1.66 (95% confidence interval 1.55-1.78) in CAD-/CeVD-/type 2 diabetes and 1.84 (1.56-2.18) in CAD+/CeVD-/non-diabetes. CeVD+ was linked to a 4-7-fold increase in the risk of cardiovascular events regardless of CAD+ or type 2 diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Type 2 diabetes increased the risk of cardiovascular disease as high as a history of CAD, whereas prior CeVD alone increased the risk of future CeVD without additional effects by type 2 diabetes.

Economic effects of dietary salt reduction policies for cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan: a simulation study of hypothetical scenarios

Objective

Reducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.

Methods

We examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.

Results

The cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.

Conclusion

Mandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

Cost-effectiveness of digital therapeutics for essential hypertension

Hypertension increases the risk of cardiovascular and other diseases. Lifestyle modification is a significant component of nonpharmacological treatments for hypertension. We previously reported the clinical efficacy of digital therapeutics (DTx) in the HERB-DH1 trial. However, there is still a lack of cost-effectiveness assessments evaluating the impact of prescription DTx. This study aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of using prescription DTx in treating hypertension. We developed a monthly cycle Markov model and conducted Monte Carlo simulations using the HERB-DH1 trial data to investigate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and the cost of DTx for hypertension plus guideline-based lifestyle modification consultation treatment as usual (TAU), comparing DTx + TAU and TAU-only groups with a lifetime horizon. The model inputs were obtained from the HERB-DH1 trial, published or publicly available data, and expert assumptions. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY was used as the benchmark for cost-effectiveness. We performed probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSAs) using the Monte Carlo simulation with two million sets. The DTx + TAU strategy produced 18.778 QALYs and was associated with ¥3,924,075 ($34,122) expected costs, compared with 18.686 QALYs and ¥3,813,358 ($33,160) generated by the TAU-only strategy over a lifetime horizon, resulting in an ICER of ¥1,199,880 ($10,434)/QALY gained for DTx + TAU. The monthly cost and attrition rate of DTx for hypertension have a significant impact on ICERs. In the PSA, the probability of the DTx arm being a cost-effective option was 87.8% at a threshold value of ¥5 million ($43,478)/QALY gained. In conclusion, the DTx + TAU strategy was more cost-effective than the TAU-only strategy.

Safety of antithrombotic therapy in East Asian patients

Antithrombotic agents are widely used on the globe for prevention of thrombotic events such as atherothrombotic events and thromboembolic stroke in atrial fibrillation or for prevention and treatment of venous thromboembolism. However, the net clinical benefit of antithrombotic intervention may differ substantially in various sub-population of patients. Here, the authors attempt to address the risk of serious bleeding in East Asian as compared to the other regions of the world. The community-based epidemiological data suggest numerically higher risk of hemorrhage stroke in East Asian as compared to the globe. Importantly, the life-time risk of ischemic stroke in East Asia is higher than that of the globe. Regarding the serious bleeding risk in East Asians with the use of antithrombotic agents, various clinical trials and international registries provided conflicting information. It is hard to draw generalized conclusion, but there are some specific sub-population in East Asian with higher risk of specific serious bleeding events with the use of specific antithrombotic agents such as the risk of intra-cranial bleeding (ICH) with Vitamin K antagonists. Specific characteristics in East Asian such as higher prevalence of lacunar stroke may contribute higher risk of ICH in East Asian, but the detailed mechanism is still to be elucidated. In conclusion, further investigations are necessary to clarify the specific conditions where the risk of serious bleeding events in East Asian patients differ substantially compared to the global. In addition, further understanding of the mechanisms causing the different bleeding response in specific conditions in East Asian is awaited.

Two-Year Recurrence After First-Ever Stroke in a General Population of 1.4 Million Japanese Patients - The Shiga Stroke and Heart Attack Registry Study

BACKGROUND

Despite many effective strategies for the prevention of recurrent stroke, individuals who survive an initial stroke have been shown to be at high risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to investigate the current status of stroke recurrence after first-ever stroke using a population-based stroke registry in Japan.Methods and Results:As part of the Shiga Stroke and Heart Attack Registry, the Shiga Stroke Registry is an ongoing population-based stroke registry study that covers approximately 1.4 million residents of Shiga Prefecture, Japan. A total of 1,883 first-ever stroke survivors at 28 days was registered in 2011 and followed-up until the end of 2013. Recurrence was defined as any type of stroke after 28 days from the onset of an index event. Two-year cumulative recurrence rates were estimated using cumulative incidence function methods. Over a mean 2.1-year follow-up period, 120 patients experienced recurrent stroke and 389 patients died without recurrence. The 2-year cumulative recurrence rate was higher in patients with index ischemic stroke (6.8%) than in those with index hemorrhagic stroke (3.8%).

CONCLUSIONS

Two-year cumulative recurrence rate after first-ever stroke remained high, particularly among patients with ischemic stroke, in the present population-based registry study in a real-world setting in Japan. Further intensive secondary prevention strategies are required for these high-risk individuals.

Drug-eluting versus bare-metal stents for first myocardial infarction in patients with atrial fibrillation: A nationwide population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute myocardial infarction (AMI) complicates the clinical management of atrial fibrillation (AF) because coronary stenting may influence subsequent antithrombotic therapy. We investigated the use of a bare-metal stent (BMS) or a drug-eluting stent (DES) and associated outcomes in patients with pre-existing AF and first AMI undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patient records in this population-based study were retrospectively collected from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Using propensity score matching (PSM), we used 1:2 ratio stratification into a DES group of 436 and a BMS group of 785 patients from 2007 to 2011. The mean follow-up of matched cohorts was 1.7 years. After PSM, DESs were associated with lower rates of cardiovascular death (7.8%, hazard ratio [HR] 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.39-0.86 and 10.1%, HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.45-0.90) and primary composite outcome (35.1%, HR 0.76, 95% CI 0.63-0.92 and 48.2%, HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.69-0.96) than BMSs within the first year and at the end of follow-up. Although the greatest benefit from DESs, irrespective of the first- and second- generation DESs, implantation was observed within the first year only, this benefit was not observed in patients with diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of DESs in AMI patients with pre-existing AF is associated with significantly lower rates of cardiovascular death and primary composite outcome within the first year follow-up. However, the effect is not apparent in patients with diabetes, chronic kidney disease or dialysis.

The imminent epidemic of atrial fibrillation and its concomitant diseases - Myocardial infarction and heart failure - A cause for concern

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasingly common in the general population. It often coincides with myocardial infarction (MI) and heart failure (HF) which are also diseases in older adults. All three conditions share common cardiovascular risk factors. While hypertension and obesity are central risk factors for all three diseases, smoking and diabetes appear to have less impact on AF. To date, age is the single most important risk factor for AF in the general population. Further, epidemiological studies suggest a strong association of AF to MI and HF. The underlying pathophysiological mechanisms are complex and not fully understood. Both MI and HF can trigger development of AF, mainly by promoting structural and electrical atrial remodeling. On the other hand, AF facilitates HF and MI development via multiple mechanisms, resulting in a vicious circle of cardiac impairment and adverse cardiovascular prognosis. Consequently, to prevent and treat the coincidence of AF and HF or MI a strict optimization of cardiovascular risk factors is required.

Modelling projections for the risks related with atrial fibrillation in East Asia: a focus on ischaemic stroke and death

Aims

In the Far East, there has generally been low uptake of oral anticoagulants (OACs) using vitamin K antagonists (VKA, e.g. warfarin) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but OAC use has been increasing more recently, with the introduction of the non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs). To explore the risks of ischaemic stroke (IS) and death related to AF in East Asia using modelling projections.

Methods and results

We performed a modelling analysis of possible trends of IS and death rates in AF patients from the time period of only VKA use to current increasing trends of NOAC use projecting until 2050 in East Asia. Data from published articles on the prevalence of AF, IS, and death were used to model estimated event rates. In 2030, the estimated AF population in East Asia will be 608 100, with the use of NOACs leading to a reduction of 82 259 ISs and 16 917 deaths. There was an estimated annual risk reduction of 5484 ISs and 1128 deaths from 2016 to 2030, respectively. The AF population is estimated to reach 861 900 in 2050, with a reduction of 206 315 ISs and 139 353 deaths.

Conclusion

This modelling analysis suggests that the transition from VKA to NOACs may greatly help in reducing the burden of IS and death caused by AF in the East Asian region.

The Global Burden of Atrial Fibrillation and Stroke: A Systematic Review of the Clinical Epidemiology of Atrial Fibrillation in Asia

BACKGROUND

Our previous review reported great variability in the incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in non-Western cohorts, especially from Asian countries; in recent years, epidemiologic studies on AF have been increasingly reported from Asia.

METHODS

The goal of this updated systematic review was to present the current knowledge base of AF epidemiology in Asian countries since our previous review. We also explored AF incidence and the risk of stroke in AF by using a meta-analysis, with I² testing the heterogeneity. Third, "real-world" antithrombotic drug use for ischemic stroke (IS) prevention associated with AF was studied.

RESULTS

A total of 58 articles from eight countries in Asia were included in the analysis. The summary annual incidence of AF was 5.38 (95% CI, 4.53-6.24; I² = 99.5%; n = 10) per 1,000 person-years, and the IS annual risk in AF was 3.0% (1.60%-4.95%; I² = 99.8%; n = 8) when meta-analysis was performed on hospital- and community-based studies. Hospital- and community-based AF prevalence ranged from 0.37% to 3.56% and 2.8% to 15.8%, respectively. IS prevalence in AF ranged from 1.9% to 6.0% and 0.36% to 28.3% in community- and hospital-based studies. Warfarin use in Chinese subjects is relatively low (1.0%-4.1%) compared with Japanese subjects (49.1%-70.0%) in community-based studies. The rate of warfarin use was < 50% in hospital-based studies.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence and prevalence of AF have increased in recent years, although great variability still exists in Asian countries. Variability in annual IS risk in patients with AF was apparent between hospital- and community-based studies. However, the rate of warfarin use was < 50% in hospital studies from Asian countries.

Atrial Fibrillation and Myocardial Infarction: A Systematic Review and Appraisal of Pathophysiologic Mechanisms

BACKGROUND

A growing body of evidence suggests that atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with myocardial infarction (MI). However, incidence and management of MI in AF is still undefined.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched MEDLINE via PubMed and Cochrane database between 1965 and 2015. All observational clinical studies and interventional trials reporting 1-year incidence of MI in AF were included. We also discussed pathophysiological mechanisms, predictors, and therapeutic approaches to reduce the risk of MI in AF. Twenty-one observational studies and 10 clinical trials were included. The annual rate of MI in observational studies including AF patients ranged from 0.4% to 2.5%. Higher rates of MI were reported in AF patients with stable coronary artery disease (11.5%/year), vascular disease (4.47%/year), heart failure (2.9%/year), and in those undergoing coronary artery interventions (6.3%/year). However, lower annual rates have been described in AF patients from Eastern countries (0.2-0.3%/year), and in those enrolled in clinical trials (from 0.4 to 1.3%/year).

CONCLUSIONS

AF patients had a significant residual risk of MI despite anticoagulant treatment. Coexistence of atherosclerotic risk factors and platelet activation account for the increased risk of MI in AF. Identification of high-risk AF patients is a needed first step to develop cost-effective approaches for prevention. A new score, the 2MACE score, has been recently developed to stratify MI risk in AF, and may help not only in allocating resources to high-risk groups, but also in design of studies examining novel therapies for prevention of MI in AF.

One-Year Outcomes of Emergency Department Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: A Prospective, Multicenter Registry in China

There is lack of data about patient characteristics, practice patterns, and long-term adverse outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) attending emergency departments (EDs) in China. A total of 2016 patients from 20 representative EDs were included. During 1 year, all-cause mortality was 291 (14.6%) cases, stroke/noncentral nervous system systemic embolism rate was 159 (8.0%) cases, and major bleeding was 26 (1.3%) cases. Heart failure, the major cause of mortality, accounted for 43.0% of deaths. Of 375 (18.6%) patients who used warfarin at baseline, only 217 (57.9%) patients were still on anticoagulation therapy during 1-year follow-up. Compared with the patients who continued on warfarin, the mortality rate was higher in those who did not continue (15.9% vs 5.5%, P < .001). Patients seen in ED with AF appear to have a high incidence rate of long-term all-cause mortality and inadequate anticoagulation rate.

An explanation of recommendation differences: illustrations from recent atrial fibrillation guidelines

The development of guidelines and their use in all areas of medicine has greatly expanded in recent years. However, despite a shared evidence base, recommendations provided by different professional societies and healthcare authorities often vary considerably. The rapid advances in atrial fibrillation (AF) and the multiplicity of guidelines devoted to AF have made it particularly susceptible to this problem. Many nonmedical aspects are important in the development of guidelines, and without understanding them correct interpretation of guidelines is difficult. Conflicts of interest, the regulatory environment, and local data all influence guidelines. Nuanced wording, resource availability, and strategic purpose add complexity to guideline recommendations. This article reviews major AF guidelines from around the world and discusses aspects which have nothing to do with the scientific evidence base in order to help the practicing physician understand and make better use of differing guideline recommendations.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein is a strong risk factor for death after acute ischemic stroke among Chinese

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Elevated plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) has been suggested as a risk factor for ischemic stroke (IS) and coronary ischemic disease. Evidence has shown that high-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) is related to a worsening prognosis after IS, but hs-CRP was rare in a large-sample study in a Chinese population. We investigated the associations between hs-CRP and outcome of Chinese patients after acute IS.

METHODS

Seven hundred and forty-one consecutive acute IS patients (74.9% male, mean age 60.9 years), with baseline characteristics and hs-CRP measured within 24 h after hospitalization, were admitted in this study. We also prospectively followed up for clinical outcome and death 3 months after disease onset. hs-CRP was divided into two categories: hs-CRP >3 mg/L and hs-CRP ≤3 mg/L. Survival analysis using multivariable Cox regression was performed to analyze the association between hs-CRP and stroke outcomes after adjusting for potential confounding factors.

RESULTS

Compared with low hs-CRP, patients with high hs-CRP (>3 mg/L) had a significantly higher rate of all-cause death (0.71% vs. 10.00%; P < 0.001) at 3 months after stroke onset. High hs-CRP was an independent risk factor for all-cause death (HR, 6.48; 95% CI, 1.41 to 29.8; P= 0.016), as well as history of atrial fibrillation (HR, 5.24; 95% CI, 1.83 to 15.0; P= 0.002), no statin therapy during hospitalization (HR, 4.56; 95% CI, 2.18 to 9.55; P < 0.001), high homocysteine (>15.1 mmol/L) (HR, 2.66; 95% CI, 1.26 to 5.60; P= 0.01); fasting glucose (>6.1 mmol/L) (HR, 9.14; 95% CI, 3.34 to 25.0; P < 0.001), NIHSS at admission (HR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.35 to 4.09; P= 0.003) and history of coronary heart disease (CHD) (HR, 2.34; 95% CI, 1.06 to 5.17; P= 0.035). Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed a higher risk of death for patients with hs-CRP >3 mg/L (P= 0.016).

CONCLUSION

Elevated plasma hs-CRP independently predicted risk of all-cause death within 3 months after acute IS in Chinese patients.