Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors for Incident Atrial Fibrillation

Association Between White Blood Cell Count and Atrial Fibrillation Risk - A Population-Based Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) are increasing. The white blood cell (WBC) count is an indicator of systemic inflammation and is related to increased cardiovascular disease risk. Using data from the Suita Study, we investigated the association between WBC count and AF risk in the general Japanese population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This prospective cohort study included 6,884 people, aged 30-84 years, with no baseline AF. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for AF incidence by WBC count quintile. Within a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, 312 AF cases were diagnosed. Compared with the lowest WBC count quintile, the highest quintile was associated with an increased AF risk (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.07-2.29). The association was more pronounced among women than men (HR 2.16 [95% CI 1.10-4.26] and 1.55 [95% CI 0.99-2.44], respectively; P interaction=0.07), and among current than non-smokers (HR 4.66 [95% CI 1.89-11.50] and 1.61 [95% CI 1.01-2.57], respectively; P interaction=0.20). For each 1.0×109-cells/L increment in WBC count, AF risk increased by 9% in men (9% in non-smokers, 10% in current smokers) and 20% in women (13% in non-smokers, 32% in current smokers).

CONCLUSIONS

A higher WBC count was positively associated with an elevated AF risk in the general Japanese population, especially in women who smoked.

Burden of atrial fibrillation and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2019: An analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the pattern and trend of the atrial fibrillation (AF) burden are essential for developing effective preventive strategies. The purpose of this study was to estimate AF burdens and risk factors in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease 2019, including incidence, death, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the attributable risk factors. In order to quantify changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALY rate between 1990 and 2019, the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was used. Also, AF burden was assessed in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

RESULTS

Globally, there were 4,720,324 incident cases, 117,038 deaths and 8,393,635 DALYs in 2019. There were no significant changes in ASIR, ASDR, or age-standardized DALY rates from 1990 to 2019. Although the burden and trend of AF varied in different regions and countries, the ASIR, ASDR and age-standardized DALY rate were positively correlated with SDI. Furthermore, the burden of AF was higher in males and elderly. The age-standardized DALY rate worldwide was primarily attributable to high systolic blood pressure, followed by high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking, diet high in sodium and lead exposure.

CONCLUSION

AF remained a major public health challenge worldwide, with substantial variation at regional and national levels. There is an urgent need to increase public awareness about AF risk factors and to bring about cost-effective interventions for AF in order to reduce its future burden.

Sleep duration and atrial fibrillation risk in the context of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine: the Suita Study and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

Background

Short and long sleep durations are common behaviors that could predict several cardiovascular diseases. However, the association between sleep duration and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk is not well-established. AF is preventable, and risk prevention approaches could reduce its occurrence. Investigating whether sleep duration could predict AF incidence for possible preventive interventions and determining the impact of various lifestyle and clinical characteristics on this association to personalize such interventions are essential. Herein, we investigated the association between sleep duration and AF risk using a prospective cohort study and a meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence.

Methods

Data of 6898 people, aged 30-84 years, from the Suita Study, were analyzed. AF was diagnosed during the follow-up by ECG, medical records, checkups, and death certificates, while a baseline questionnaire was used to assess sleep duration. The Cox regression was used to compute the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of AF risk for daily sleep ≤ 6 (short sleep), ≥ 8 (long sleep), and irregular sleep, including night-shift work compared with 7 h (moderate sleep). Then, we combined our results with those from other eligible prospective cohort studies in two meta-analyses for the short and long sleep.

Results

In the Suita Study, within a median follow-up period of 14.5 years, short and irregular sleep, but not long sleep, were associated with the increased risk of AF in the age- and sex-adjusted models: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.36 (1.03, 1.80) and 1.62 (1.16, 2.26) and the multivariable-adjusted models: HRs (95% CIs) = 1.34 (1.01, 1.77) and 1.63 (1.16, 2.30), respectively. The significant associations between short and irregular sleep and AF risk remained consistent across different ages, sex, smoking, and drinking groups. However, they were attenuated among overweight and hypertensive participants. In the meta-analyses, short and long sleep durations were associated with AF risk: pooled HRs (95% CIs) = 1.21 (1.02, 1.42) and 1.18 (1.03, 1.35). No signs of significant heterogeneity across studies or publication bias were detected.

Conclusion

Short, long, and irregular sleep could be associated with increased AF risk. In the context of predictive, preventive, and personalized medicine, sleep duration should be considered in future AF risk scores to stratify the general population for potential personalized lifestyle modification interventions. Sleep management services should be considered for AF risk prevention, and these services should be individualized according to clinical characteristics and lifestyle factors.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13167-022-00275-4.

Serum High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein Levels and the Development of Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population - The Hisayama Study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia in the elderly, and causes complications such as cardioembolic stroke. Serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation, has been reported to be a risk factor for developing AF in Western countries. However, few community-based studies have examined this issue in general Asian populations.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 2,510 community-dwelling Japanese participants aged ≥40 years without a history of AF were divided into 4 groups according to the sex-specific quartiles of serum hs-CRP concentrations (Q1, lowest and Q4, highest) and followed up for 24 years. The hazard ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for the development of AF were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 234 subjects developed AF. The risk of AF increased significantly with elevating serum hs-CRP levels after adjustment for potential confounding factors (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], Q1, 1.00 [reference]; Q2, 1.26 [0.83-1.92]; Q3, 1.77 [1.18-2.66]; and Q4, 1.89 [1.24-2.86]; P for trend <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings suggest that elevated serum hs-CRP levels are an independent risk factor for the development of AF in a general Japanese population.

Risk Prediction Model for Incident Atrial Fibrillation in a General Japanese Population - The Hisayama Study

BACKGROUND

The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.

Defibrillation threshold of internal cardioversion prior to ablation predicts atrial fibrillation recurrence

BACKGROUND

Many studies have reported the predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after persistent AF (peAF) ablation. However, the correlation between the atrial defibrillation threshold (DFT) for internal cardioversion (IC) and AF recurrence rate is unknown. Here we investigated the relationship between the DFT prior to catheter ablation for peAF and AF recurrence.

HYPOTHESIS

DFT prior to ablation was the predictive factor for AF recurrence after peAF ablation.

METHODS

From June 2016 to May 2019, we enrolled 82 consecutive patients (mean age, 65.0 ± 12.4 years), including 45 with peAF and 37 with long-standing peAF, at Hamamatsu Medical Center. To assess the DFT, we performed IC with gradually increasing energy prior to radiofrequency application.

RESULTS

Forty-nine and 33 patients showed DFT values less than or equal to 10 J (group A) and greater than 10 J or unsuccessful defibrillation (group B). During the mean follow-up duration of 20.5 ± 13.1 months, patients in group B showed significantly higher AF recurrence rates than those in group A after the ablation procedure (p = .017). Multivariate analysis revealed that DFT was the only predictive factor for AF recurrence (odds ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.00-1.13, p = .047).

CONCLUSIONS

The DFT for IC was among the strongest prognostic factors in the peAF ablation procedure.

Relationship Between Radiation Exposure and Incident Atrial Fibrillation Among Atomic Bomb Survivors

Background: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common arrhythmia. Although radiation exposure is associated with an elevated risk of cardiovascular disease, the effects of radiation on arrhythmia, especially AF, are unclear. We evaluated the relationship between radiation and AF in a cohort of atomic bomb survivors. Methods and Results: From a baseline enrollment period (1967-1969) to 2009, 7,379 Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bomb survivors (mean baseline age 50.6 years, 65.8% women, 72.9% from Hiroshima) without AF and who had been exposed to estimated radiation doses between 0 and 3.614 Gy were followed-up once every 2 years. AF was identified by 12-lead electrocardiograms and medical records. Treating age as the time scale, AF incidence was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models adjusting for demographics, AF risk factors, and radiation. We modeled radiation as both a continuous variable and categorized according to radiation dose (Control [<0.005 Gy] and 5 equal-sized groups based on radiation dose quintiles in the cohort). Over 4 decades of follow-up, we identified 276 AF cases in 176,687 person-years, for an incidence rate of 1.56 per 1,000 person-years. After adjusting for sex and city, neither categorized, linear, nor linear-quadratic models showed substantive evidence of radiation effects. Similar results were obtained after adjusting for AF risk factors. Conclusions: There were no clear positive associations between radiation dose and AF risk, rather null or non-significant inverse associations.

Decreased plasma musclin levels are associated with potential atrial fibrillation in non-diabetic patients

Background

Musclin is involved in the regulation of natriuretic peptide (NP) clearance and may affect the concentration of atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP). It has also been found to play an important role in several diseases, such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Both abnormalities in ANP and associated medical history are involved in the pathogenesis of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, plasma concentration of musclin as a biomarker for risk stratification in patients with AF has not been fully investigated.

Methods

Plasma musclin levels were measured in 290 patients with AF (including 199 paroxysmal AF patients and 91 persistent AF patients) and 120 control subjects. The association between plasma musclin levels and AF onset, as well as its predictive effects on clinical outcomes after cryoballoon ablation were analyzed.

Results

AF patients were found to have a lower concentration of plasma musclin than healthy controls. Moreover, in the non-diabetic group and normal N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level group, the association between lower plasma concentration of musclin and AF remained significant. According to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the optimal cut-off point of musclin for predicting AF onset was 54.94 ng/mL, which had a sensitivity of 81.67% and a specificity of 31.47% [area under the ROC curve (AUC) =60.71%]. In follow-up studies, both diabetes and left atrial size were independent predictors of AF recurrence after ablation, while musclin showed only a modest relationship with the outcome of cryoballoon ablation.

Conclusions

Our data indicated that decreased musclin was associated with the onset of AF. Moreover, lower plasma levels of musclin were an independent risk factor of AF in non-diabetic patients. Our studies suggest that musclin could be a predictive factor for the onset of AF.

Annotation of susceptibility SNPs associated with atrial fibrillation

OBJECTIVE

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and the candidate gene based association studies have identified a panel of variants associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), however, most of the identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found located within intergenic or intronic genomic regions, and whether the positive SNPs have a real biological function is unknown, and the real disease causing gene need to be studied.

RESULTS

The current results of the genetic studies including common variants identified by GWAS (338 index SNPs) and candidate gene based association studies (40 SNPs) were summarized.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests the relationship between genetic variants and possible targeted genes, and provides insight into potential genetic pathways underlying AF incidence and development. The results may provide an encyclopedia of AF susceptibility SNPs and shed light on the functional mechanisms of AF variants identified through genetic studies.

METHODS

We summarized AF susceptibility SNPs identified by GWAS and candidate gene based association studies, and give a comprehensive functional annotation of all these AF susceptibility loci. by genomic annotation, microRNA binding prediction, promoter activity analysis, enhancer activity analysis, transcription factors binding activity prediction, expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) analysis, long-range transcriptional regulatory function analysis, gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis.

Predictors of new-onset atrial fibrillation in geriatric trauma patients

INTRODUCTION

Geriatric patients (age >65) comprise a growing segment of the trauma population. New-onset atrial fibrillation may occur after injury, complicating clinical management and resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. This study was undertaken to identify clinical and demographic factors associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation among geriatric trauma patients.

METHODS

In this case control study, eligible participants included admitted trauma patients age 65 and older who developed new-onset atrial fibrillation during the hospitalization. Controls were admitted trauma patients who were matched for age and injury severity score, who did not develop atrial fibrillation. We evaluated the associations between new-onset atrial fibrillation and clinical characteristics, including patient demographics, health behaviors, chronic medical conditions, and course of care.

RESULTS

Data were available for 63 cases and 25 controls. Patients who developed atrial fibrillation were more likely to be male, compared to controls (49% versus 24%; odds ratio 3.0[1.0, 8.9]). Other demographic and clinical factors were not associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation, including mechanism of injury, co-morbid medical conditions, drug or alcohol use, surgical procedures, and intravenous fluid administration.

CONCLUSIONS

Male geriatric trauma patients were at higher risk for developing new-onset atrial fibrillation. Other demographic and clinical factors were not associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation.

Blood lipid profiles and risk of atrial fibrillation: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

BACKGROUND

There is an increasing body of evidence associating traditional cardiovascular risk factors with atrial fibrillation (AF), but the relationship between blood lipid profiles and the risk of AF remains controversial.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to conduct a systemic review and meta-analysis of large cohort studies to evaluate the relationship between blood lipid profiles and incident AF.

METHODS

PubMed and Embase were searched up to January 31, 2019, for cohort studies that reported the relationship between blood lipid levels and incident AF. The hazard ratios or odds ratios of the highest vs lowest categories of lipid levels were extracted to calculate pooled estimates. Sensitivity analysis and meta-regression were performed to explore potential sources of heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included in the meta-analysis, including 9 studies for total cholesterol (TC), 5 for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), 8 for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and 8 for triglyceride. Serum TC and LDL-C levels were inversely related to AF risk (relative risk [RR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.72-0.92; RR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.70-0.88, respectively). Likewise, elevated HDL-C levels were associated with a reduced AF risk (RR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.76-0.97), whereas no significant association was observed between triglyceride levels and incident AF (RR = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.90-1.17).

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis of large cohort studies found an inverse relationship between serum TC, LDL-C, and HDL-C levels and AF risk, although there was no significant association between TG levels and incident AF. Future studies regarding AF risk stratification may take these blood lipids into consideration, and further efforts are needed to investigate the potential mechanisms.

An Assessment of Training Characteristics Associated with Atrial Fibrillation in Masters Runners

A growing body of literature supports an association between long-term endurance exercise and the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Given the benefits of lifelong exercise, a better understanding of this association is critical to allow healthcare providers to counsel aging exercisers on the proper "dose" of exercise to maximize health benefits but minimize AF risk. The current study examines the relationship between specific aspects of training volume and intensity and the occurrence of AF among older runners in order to better understand what aspects of endurance exercise may contribute to the development of AF. The study was an Internet-based survey of endurance training and health characteristics of runners 35 years of age and older. A total 2819 runners participated and 69 (2.4%) reported a current or prior diagnosis of AF. Among "traditional" risk factors, runners reporting AF were older, more likely to be male, and had higher rates of hypertension and diabetes. Among training characteristics, only accumulated years of training was associated with AF. In contrast, average weekly mileage, training pace, and days of training per week were not associated with AF. In a multivariable analysis that included chronologic age, sex, diabetes, and hypertension, accumulated years of training remained significantly associated with the report of AF. These findings suggest that the relationship between chronic endurance exercise and AF is dependent on the accumulated training duration but does not appear to be influenced by specific training characteristics such as frequency or intensity of endurance exercise. Further confirmation of these relationships may help healthcare providers counsel exercisers on optimal training habits and identify endurance athletes who are at risk for the development of AF.

Lifetime Risk of Atrial Fibrillation by Race and Socioeconomic Status: ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities)

BACKGROUND

Limited information exists on the lifetime risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in African Americans and by socioeconomic status.

METHODS

We studied 15 343 participants without AF at baseline from the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) cohort recruited in 1987 to 1989 from 4 communities in the United States when they were 45 to 64 years of age. Participants have been followed through 2014. Incidence rates of AF were calculated dividing the number of new cases by person-years of follow-up. Lifetime risk of AF was estimated by a modified Kaplan-Meier method considering death as a competing risk. Participants' family income and education were obtained at baseline.

RESULTS

We identified 2760 AF cases during a mean follow-up of 21 years. Lifetime risk of AF was 36% (95% confidence interval, 32%-38%) in white men, 30% (95% confidence interval, 26%-32%) in white women, 21% (95% confidence interval, 13%-24%) in African American men, and 22% (95% confidence interval, 16%-25%) in African American women. Regardless of race and sex, incidence rates of AF decreased from the lowest to the highest categories of income and education. In contrast, lifetime risk of AF increased in individuals with higher income and education in most sex-race groups. Cumulative incidence of AF was lower in those with higher income and education compared with their low socioeconomic status counterparts through earlier life but was reversed after age 80.

CONCLUSIONS

Lifetime risk of AF in the ARIC cohort was ≈1 in 3 among whites and 1 in 5 among African Americans. Socioeconomic status was inversely associated with cumulative incidence of AF before the last decades of life.

Influences of Obesity and Bariatric Surgery on the Clinical and Pharmacologic Profile of Rivaroxaban

The health implications of obesity are myriad and multifaceted. Physiologic changes associated with obesity can affect the absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion of administered drugs, thereby altering their pharmacologic profiles. In 2016, the Scientific and Standardization Committee of the International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis published recommendations about the use of direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) in obese patients. This guidance provides uniform recommendations for all DOACs, yet data suggest that individual agents may be affected to different degrees by obesity. Moreover, there are no recommendations currently available to guide DOAC use in bariatric surgery patients, in whom anatomic and physiologic changes to the digestive system can influence drug pharmacokinetics. Our review of the available literature indicates that the clinical profile of the DOAC rivaroxaban is not affected by high weight or bariatric surgery; hence, it does not appear that rivaroxaban dosing needs to be altered in these patient populations.