Plasma D-Dimer Level Is an Early Predictor of Severity of Acute Pancreatitis Based on 2012 Atlanta Classification

The value of immature granulocyte percentage united with D-Dimer in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed at analyzing the serum expression of Immature Granulocyte percentage (IG %) and D-Dimer (D-D) in patients with severe pancreatitis and exploring their clinical diagnostic value.

METHODS

Eighty-four cases with severe pancreatitis received in Shengjing Hospital, China Medical University from July 2020 to July 2023 were regarded as the study group and conducted for retrospective analysis. They were divided into a survival group (n = 62) and a death group (n = 22) based on the prognosis. Another 80 patients diagnosed with mild and moderate pancreatitis were selected as the control group. Serum IG % and D-D levels of all subjects were analyzed and the value of IG % and D-D in the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis was conducted by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

The IG % and D-D levels in the study group were markedly higher than the control group (p < 0.05). The IG % and D-D level in the death group were observably higher than the survival group (p < 0.05). The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of IG % and D-D combined assessment for severe pancreatitis was 0.963, and the sensitivity and specificity were 98.75 %, 82.14 %, respectively. The AUC of IG % and D-D combined assessment for prognosis of severe pancreatitis was 0.814 with a sensitivity of 79.03 % and a specificity of 77.27 %. The efficiency of joint evaluation of the two indicators is superior to the individual evaluation.

CONCLUSION

Serum IG % and D-D are highly expressed in patients with severe pancreatitis, which has important clinical value for the evaluation of severe pancreatitis and its prognosis.

Construction and alidation of a severity prediction model for acute pancreatitis based on CT severity index: A retrospective case-control study

To construct and internally and externally validate a nomogram model for predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) based on the CT severity index (CTSI).A retrospective analysis of clinical data from 200 AP patients diagnosed at the Hefei Third Clinical College of Anhui Medical University from June 2019 to June 2022 was conducted. Patients were classified into non-severe acute pancreatitis (NSAP, n = 135) and severe acute pancreatitis (SAP, n = 65) based on final clinical diagnosis. Differences in CTSI, general clinical features, and laboratory indicators between the two groups were compared. The LASSO regression model was used to select variables that might affect the severity of AP, and these variables were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram model was constructed using R software, and its AUC value was calculated. The accuracy and practicality of the model were evaluated using calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis (DCA), with internal validation performed using the bootstrap method. Finally, 60 AP patients treated in the same hospital from July 2022 to December 2023 were selected for external validation.LASSO regression identified CTSI, BUN, D-D, NLR, and Ascites as five predictive factors. Unconditional binary logistic regression analysis showed that CTSI (OR = 2.141, 95%CI:1.369-3.504), BUN (OR = 1.378, 95%CI:1.026-1.959), NLR (OR = 1.370, 95%CI:1.016-1.906), D-D (OR = 1.500, 95%CI:1.112-2.110), and Ascites (OR = 5.517, 95%CI:1.217-2.993) were independent factors influencing SAP. The established prediction model had a C-index of 0.962, indicating high accuracy. Calibration curves demonstrated good consistency between predicted survival rates and actual survival rates. The C-indexes for internal and external validation were 0.935 and 0.901, respectively, with calibration curves close to the ideal line.The model based on CTSI and clinical indicators can effectively predict the severity of AP, providing a scientific basis for clinical decision-making by physicians.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting the Severity of the First Episode of Hyperlipidemic Acute Pancreatitis

Purpose

Early detection of hyperlipidemic acute pancreatitis (HLAP) with exacerbation tendency is crucial for clinical decision-making and improving prognosis. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable model for the early prediction of HLAP severity.

Patients and Methods

A total of 225 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to Fujian Medical University Union Hospital from June 2012 to June 2023 were included. Patients were divided into mild acute pancreatitis (MAP) or moderate-severe acute pancreatitis and severe acute pancreatitis (MSAP+SAP) groups. Independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP were identified through univariate analysis and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. A nomogram was established through multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict this progression. The calibration, receiver operating characteristic(ROC), and clinical decision curves were employed to evaluate the model's consistency, differentiation, and clinical applicability. Clinical data of 93 patients with first-episode HLAP who were admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University from October 2015 to October 2022 were collected for external validation.

Results

White blood cell count, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, serum creatinine, serum calcium, D-Dimer were identified as independent predictors for progression to MSAP or SAP in patients with HLAP and used to establish a predictive nomogram. The internally verified Harrell consistency index (C-index) was 0.908 (95% CI 0.867-0.948) and the externally verified C-index was 0.950 (95% CI 0.910-0.990). The calibration, ROC, and clinical decision curves showed this nomogram's good predictive ability.

Conclusion

We have established a nomogram that can help identify HLAP patients who are likely to develop MSAP or SAP at an early stage, with high discrimination and accuracy.

Predictive role of lactate in dogs with acute pancreatitis advanced to systemic inflammatory response syndrome

Acute pancreatitis (AP) can develop into life-threatening conditions such as systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) or multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Thirty-nine of 54 client-owned dogs admitted to the Referral Animal Medical Center and diagnosed with AP within 24 hr of onset were retrospectively reviewed to assess early predictors of progression from AP to SIRS. The patients were divided into SIRS (SIRS occurring after AP) and non-SIRS (AP occurring but no SIRS) groups. The population and mean values of laboratory variables within 24 hr of admission were assessed and compared between both groups. There were significantly more dogs with abnormal lactate levels in the SIRS group (80.00%) than non-SIRS group (11.10%). Other parameters did not differ significantly. Mean lactate level values were significantly higher at 3.64 ± 1.75 mmol in the SIRS group compared to 1.68 ± 0.52 mmol in the non-SIRS group. The increased energy required by activated immune cells may lead to metabolic changes characterized by anaerobic glycolysis and increased lactate production. This study's results suggest blood lactate monitoring in the early stages of progression from AP to SIRS in small animal clinical practice. Measuring lactate levels at the early stages of pancreatitis could lead to rapid therapeutic intervention for SIRS and ultimately reduce mortality.

Nomogram and Web Calculator Based on Lasso-Logistic Regression for Predicting Persistent Organ Failure in Acute Pancreatitis Patients

PURPOSE

Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal emergency. Approximately 20% of patients with acute pancreatitis develop organ failure, which is significantly associated with adverse outcomes. This study aimed to establish an early prediction model for persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis patients using 24-hour admission indicators.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Clinical data and 24-h laboratory indicators of patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis from January 1, 2017 to January 1, 2022 in Shanxi Bethune Hospital were collected. Patients from 2017 to 2021 were used as the training cohort to establish the prediction model, and patients from 2021 to 2022 were used as the validation cohort. Univariate logistic regression and LASSO regression were used to establish prediction models. The performance of the model was evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA), and subsequently validated in the validation group.

RESULTS

A total of 1166 patients with acute pancreatitis were included, a total of 145 patients suffered from persistent organ failure from 2017 to 2021. Data were initially selected for 100 variables, and after inclusion and exclusion, 46 variables were used for further analysis. Two prediction models were established and nomogram was drawn respectively. After comparison, the prediction values of the two models were similar (The univariate model AUC was 0.867, 95% CI (0.834-0.9). The LASSO model AUC was 0.864, 95% CI (0.828-0.895)), and the model established by LASSO regression was more parsimonious. A web calculator was developed using the model established by LASSO.

CONCLUSION

Predictive model including 6 risk indicators can be used to predict the risk of persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis.

Fibrinogen-like Protein 1 as a Predictive Marker for the Incidence of Severe Acute Pancreatitis and Infectious Pancreatic Necrosis

Background and Objectives: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is defined as an acute inflammatory disorder of the pancreas and is a common gastrointestinal disease. Since currently used indicators lack specifics and cannot accurately reflect the phase of disease, better diagnostic approaches need to be explored. Fibrinogen-like protein 1 (FGL-1) is a reactant in acute inflammatory diseases and is increased in the plasma of AP patients. In the current study, we aim to investigate the clinical benefits of FGL-1 in predicting the severity of AP and infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN), which can improve the diagnostic efficiency of AP. Materials and Methods: In this study, 63 patients diagnosed with AP from December 2018 to September 2019 were enrolled. Regarding the severity of AP, patients were separated into severe acute pancreatitis (SAP, n = 12) and No-SAP groups (n = 51). On the basis of infective conditions, patients were divided into IPN (n = 9) and No-IPN (n = 54) groups. The demographic data (sex and age) and blood parameters (WBC, HCT, glucose, calcium, FIB, APTT, PCT, CRP, and FGL-1) were retrospectively analyzed. Results: The plasma FGL-1 levels were increased in both SAP (p < 0.01) and IPN (p < 0.05) subgroups compared to the healthy control group. Multivariate analysis showed that elevated plasma FGL-1 (p < 0.01) and PCT levels (p < 0.05) within 72 h after the onset of AP were positively correlated with the severity of AP, while increased plasma FGL-1 (p < 0.01) and CRP (p < 0.05) levels were positively correlated with the occurrence of IPN. The combination of FGL-1 and PCT showed superiority to both individual markers in SAP prediction. However, the combination of FGL-1 and CRP showed no diagnostic advantage over CRP in IPN prediction. Conclusions: Plasma FGL-1 within 72 h after the onset could be used for the stratification of AP and its infectious complications. The combination of PCT and FGL-1 presents an enormous advantage for the early identification of SAP.

Triglyceride to HDL-C ratio is associated with plasma D-dimer levels in different types of pancreatitis

This study aims to evaluate levels of D-dimer and serum lipid in different types of pancreatitis, and the relationship between D-dimer and dyslipidemia, especially triglyceride to HDL-C ratio (TG/HDL-C) in different types of pancreatitis. We analyzed the D-dimer and dyslipidemia levels in acute pancreatitis (AP), recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP) and chronic pancreatitis (CP). A single-centered retrospective study was conducted on 1013 patients diagnosed with AP, RAP or CP. Only patients hospitalized within 24 h of onset were included, and 204 patients were enrolled in pancreatitis groups. 68 normal persons without pancreatitis, malignant diseases, pregnancy, or organ failure, who had health check-ups, were enrolled in the control group. Blood samples were taken within 24 h of admission. The relevant information on epidemiology and etiology was collected. D-dimer and serum lipid levels in different types of pancreatitis were analyzed. Furthermore, the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to estimate the validity of the predictor and to define optimal cut-off points for prediction. We found that D-dimer and TG/HDL-C ratio could distinguish mild AP (MAP) and non-MAP in AP and RAP patients. The D-dimer level was related to TG/HDL-C ratio and severity of pancreatitis, with the coefficient correlation of 0.379 and 0.427(p < 0.05), respectively. TG/HDL-C was related to D-dimer in different types of pancreatitis. Logistic regression analysis was conducted in the parameters at admission like alcohol abuse, dyslipidemia and coagulation disturbance in distinguishing AP and RAP groups from the control group, and the parameter like diabetes in RAP and CP groups significantly increased compared with that of the control group. The value of D-dimer level and TG/HDL-C ratio in predicting the severity of AP and RAP was confirmed but there was no significant difference between CP group and the control group. The D-dimer level was related to dyslipidemia and TG/HDL-C ratio.

[Association between coagulation function and prognosis in patients with acute pancreatitis]

OBJECTIVE

To explore the correlation of coagulation function with the severity and prognosis of acute pancreatitis (AP) and identify the laboratory markers for early prediction and dynamic monitoring of the prognosis of AP.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of patients with AP admitted less than 72 h after onset to our hospital from December 1, 2017 to November 30, 2018. The correlation of coagulation function-related markers at admission and their changes during hospitalization with the prognosis of the patients was analyzed.

RESULTS

We screened the data of a total of 1260 patients with AP against the inclusion and exclusion criteria, and eventually 175 patients were enrolled in this analysis, among whom 52 patients had severe AP (SAP) and 12 patients died. Logistic regression analysis identified vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer markers at admission as independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. Dynamic monitoring of the changes in coagulation function-related markers in the disease course had greater predictive value of the patients' prognosis, and the indicators including vWF: Ag_max, PT_max, APTT_max, TT_max, FIB_min, D-dimer_max, PLT_min, PC_min, PLG_min, AT Ⅲ_min, and their variations were all independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death. ROC analysis suggested that dynamic monitoring of the changes in the indicators, especially those of △vWF: Ag, △PT, △APTT, △FIB, △TT, △D-dimer, △PLT, △PC, △AT Ⅲ, △PLG, could effectively predict SAP and death in these patients (with AUC range of 0.63-0.84).

CONCLUSION

Patients with AP have vascular endothelial injuries and coagulation disorders. The markers including vWF: Ag, PT, PC, AT Ⅲ and D-dimer at admission are independent risk factors for predicting SAP and death, and dynamic monitoring of the changes in vWF: Ag、PT、APTT、TT、FIB、D-dimer、PLT、PC、AT Ⅲ and PLG can further increase the predictive value.

Development and Evaluation of a Nomogram to Predict the Eventual Severity of the First Episode of Acute Pancreatitis

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this research was to establish a nomogram for early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).

METHODS

A total of 1860 AP patients from 2013 to 2020 were included in this study. According to the 2012 revised Atlanta classification, patients were divided into nonsevere AP group and severe AP (SAP) group. The baseline characteristics and first laboratory indicators after admission between the 2 groups were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in training set. R language was used for establishing a predictive nomogram and further verified in validation set.

RESULTS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis in the training set showed red blood cell distribution width, d -dimer, apolipoprotein A1, and albumin were independent factors for SAP. A predictive nomogram was accordingly established based on the 4 indicators. Validation on this predictive nomogram showed high internal validation concordance index of 0.940 (95% confidence interval, 0.922-0.958) and high external validation concordance index of 0.943 (95% confidence interval, 0.920-0.966). The calibration curve, receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analysis all showed that the nomogram had good predictive ability.

CONCLUSIONS

This nomogram may be an effective clinical tool for predicting the first episode of SAP.

Diagnostic utility of hematological indices in predicting adverse outcomes and severity of acute pancreatitis based on BISAP and modified Glasgow score

BACKGROUND

The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-lymphocyte-ratio (PLR), and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) are simple indicators of inflammatory status previously established as a severity indicator in distinct disease states. This study aimed to determine the impact of these simple hematologic indices with conventional inflammation markers such as C-reactive pro-tein (CRP) and white blood cells in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients and their relationship with AP risk stratification scores including Bedside Index for Severity of Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) and modified Glaskow Prognostic score (mGPS) scores.

METHODS

This retrospective study was performed in the emergency department of Canakkale Onsekiz Mart University. A total of 171 patients (male/female: 68 [39.8%]/103 [60.3%]) with AP and 59 age and gender matched healthy subjects (male/female: 23 [39%]/36[61%]) as controls were enrolled in the present study. The patients were grouped according to severity and adverse outcomes according to BISAP and mGPS and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR, PLR, and RDW between groups.

RESULTS

The mean NLR values of AP patients and control group were 9.62±6.34 and 2.04±1.08, respectively (p<0.001), while the mean PLR values of AP patients and control group were 221.83±122.43 and 83.30±38.89, respectively (p<0.001). Except from RDW, all the other hematologic indices were found to be elevated (p<0.05 for WBC; NLR, PLR, and CRP) on both mild and severe disease at disease onset. NLR and PLR showed significant predictive ability for estimating serious complications associated with AP.

CONCLUSION

The present study showed that NLR and PLR is increased in AP. Moreover, peripheral blood NLR and PLR values can predict disease severity and adverse outcomes associated with AP and can be used as an adjunctive marker for estimating disease severity.

Clinical analysis of the therapeutic effect of plasma exchange on hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The therapeutic effect of plasma exchange (PE) on hypertriglyceridemic acute pancreatitis (HTGAP) is unclear. Therefore, we aimed to explore this therapeutic effect.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This study included 204 patients with HTGAP who underwent treatment at two provincial tertiary grade A hospitals in Fujian Province from October 2012 to May 2021. Patients were divided into a conventional group and a PE group. The Student's t-test and chi-square test were used for data analysis.

RESULTS

Among 204 patients, 56 and 148 were included in the PE and conventional groups, respectively. After propensity score matching (PSM), the PE and conventional groups each had 42 patients. There was no significant difference in age; sex; pregnancy; comorbidities; laboratory findings; incidences of complications, and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS); organ support treatment; surgical rate; mortality; and hospital stay between the groups (p > 0.05). The total expenses were significantly higher in the PE group than in the conventional group (p < 0.05). There was no statistically significant difference in the times of PE; total volume of PE; incidences of complications, and MODS; organ support treatment; surgical rate; mortality; and hospital stay between the early PE and delayed PE groups (p > 0.05). All patients in the PE group and conventional group with acute renal failure had significantly higher D-dimer levels than those without acute renal failure (p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Compared with conventional treatment, PE does not have a better therapeutic effect on HTGAP. The D-dimer level can predict whether patients with HTGAP will have acute renal failure.

Ranson score to stratify severity in Acute Pancreatitis remains valid - Old is gold

Introduction: Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common gastrointestinal disease with a wide spectrum of severity and morbidity. Developed in 1974, the Ranson score was the first scoring system to prognosticate AP. Over the past decades, while the Ranson score remains widely used, it was identified to have certain limitations, such as having low predictive power. It has also been criticized for its 48-hour requirement for computation of the final score, which has been argued to potentially delay management. With advancements in our understanding of AP, is the Ranson score still relevant as an effective prognostication system for AP?Areas covered: This review summarizes the available evidence comparing Ranson score with other conventional and novel scoring systems, in terms of prognostic accuracy, benefits, limitations and clinical applicability. It also evaluates the effectiveness of Ranson score with regard to the Revised Atlanta Classification.Expert opinion: The Ranson score consistently exhibits comparable prognostic accuracy to other newer scoring systems, and the 48-hour timeframe for computing the full Ranson score is an inherent strength, not a weakness. These aspects, coupled with relative ease of use, practicality and universality of the score, advocate for the continued relevance of the Ranson score in modern clinical practice.

Can we use endocan level to determine severity of pancreatitis?

Background and study aims

Endothelial cell specific molecule-1 (ESM-1), also known as endocan, is a soluble proteoglycan secreted by human vascular endothelial cells. In some studies, it has been found that endocan have important effects on cell adhesion, inflammation and angiogenesis. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the endocan level in patients with pancreatitis and the availability of endocan level in determining the severity of the disease.

Patients and methods

A total of 42 patients with pancreatitis and 33 healthy individuals were included in the study. The serum endocan levels in patients were evaluated 1st and 3 th days after the symptom's onset. Current scoring systems and the relationship between the severity of the disease and endocan levels were evaluated.

Results

The endocan levels of the patients on day 1 are significantly correlated only with the APACHE II score (p=0.039 r=0.319), while the endocan values on day 3 are significantly correlated with the BISAP (bedside index of severity in acute pancreatitis) (p=0.013 r=0.380), APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation)(p<0.001; r=0.53) and Ranson (p=0.037 r=0.32) scores. The cutoff level of endocan (day 3) was calculated 92.2 pg/ml (83% sensitivity and 50% specificity; p=0.039 area under the curve 0.706) for severe pancreatitis when considering the patients with a score of 8 or higher in the APACHE II scoring system.

Conclusion

Serum endocan level can be used as a marker of prognosis in patients with pancreatitis. However, studies involving large populations are needed on this matter.

Assessment of the course of acute pancreatitis in the light of aetiology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The main causes of acute pancreatitis (AP) are biliary disease, alcohol consumption, hypertriglyceridaemia (HTG) and endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP). The aim of this meta-analysis was to evaluate the effects of these aetiological factors on the severity and outcome of AP. Pubmed and Embase were searched between 01/01/2012 and 31/05/2020. Included articles involved adult alcoholic, biliary, HTG- or post-ERCP AP (PAP) patients. Primary outcome was severity, secondary outcomes were organ failures, intensive care unit admission, recurrence rate, pancreatic necrosis, mortality, length of hospital stay, pseudocyst, fluid collection and systematic inflammatory response syndrome. Data were analysed from 127 eligible studies. The risk for non-mild (moderately severe and severe) condition was the highest in HTG-induced AP (HTG-AP) followed by alcoholic AP (AAP), biliary AP (BAP) and PAP. Recurrence rate was significantly lower among BAP vs. HTG-AP or AAP patients (OR = 2.69 and 2.98, 95% CI 1.55–4.65 and 2.22–4.01, respectively). Mortality rate was significantly greater in HTG-AP vs. AAP or BAP (OR = 1.72 and 1.50, 95% CI 1.04–2.84 and 0.96–2.35, respectively), pancreatic necrosis occurred more frequently in AAP than BAP patients (OR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.08–2.30). Overall, there is a potential association between aetiology and the development and course of AP. HTG-AP is associated with the highest number of complications. Furthermore, AAP is likely to be more severe than BAP or PAP. Greater emphasis should be placed on determining aetiology on admission.