Insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for Chagas disease

Accelerating Progress Towards the 2030 Neglected Tropical Diseases Targets: How Can Quantitative Modeling Support Programmatic Decisions?

Over the past decade, considerable progress has been made in the control, elimination, and eradication of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Despite these advances, most NTD programs have recently experienced important setbacks; for example, NTD interventions were some of the most frequently and severely impacted by service disruptions due to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Mathematical modeling can help inform selection of interventions to meet the targets set out in the NTD road map 2021-2030, and such studies should prioritize questions that are relevant for decision-makers, especially those designing, implementing, and evaluating national and subnational programs. In September 2022, the World Health Organization hosted a stakeholder meeting to identify such priority modeling questions across a range of NTDs and to consider how modeling could inform local decision making. Here, we summarize the outputs of the meeting, highlight common themes in the questions being asked, and discuss how quantitative modeling can support programmatic decisions that may accelerate progress towards the 2030 targets.

Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration

BACKGROUND

Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program.

METHODS

We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control.

RESULTS

Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable.

CONCLUSIONS

The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.

Trypanosoma cruzi infection in dogs along the US-Mexico border: R0 changes with vector species composition

Infection with Trypanosoma cruzi, etiological agent of Chagas disease, is common in US government working dogs along the US-Mexico border. This 3145 km long border comprises four states: Texas (TX), New Mexico (NM), Arizona (AZ) and California (CA) with diverse ecosystems and several triatomine (a.k.a., kissing bug) species, primary vectors of T. cruzi in this region. The kissing bug (Heteroptera: Reduviidae) community ranging from CA to TX includes Triatoma protracta (Uhler), Triatoma recurva (Stål) and Triatoma rubida (Uhler) and becomes dominated by Triatoma gerstaeckeri Stål in TX. Here, we ask if T. cruzi infection dynamics in dogs varies along this border region, potentially reflecting changes in vector species and their vectorial capacity. Using reversible catalytic models of infection, where seropositivity can be lost, we estimated an R0 (Estimate ± S.E.) of 1.192 ± 0.084 for TX and NM. In contrast, seropositivity decayed to zero as dogs aged in AZ and CA. These results suggest that dogs are likely infected by T. cruzi during their training in western TX, with a force of infection large enough for keeping R0 above 1, i.e., the disease endemically established, in TX and NM. In AZ and CA, a lower force of infection, probably associated with different vector species communities and associated vectorial capacity and/or different lineages of T. cruzi, results in dogs decreasing their seropositivity with age.

Chagas disease control-surveillance in the Americas: the multinational initiatives and the practical impossibility of interrupting vector-borne Trypanosoma cruzi transmission

Chagas disease (CD) still imposes a heavy burden on most Latin American countries. Vector-borne and mother-to-child transmission cause several thousand new infections per year, and at least 5 million people carry Trypanosoma cruzi. Access to diagnosis and medical care, however, is far from universal. Starting in the 1990s, CD-endemic countries and the Pan American Health Organization-World Health Organization (PAHO-WHO) launched a series of multinational initiatives for CD control-surveillance. An overview of the initiatives’ aims, achievements, and challenges reveals some key common themes that we discuss here in the context of the WHO 2030 goals for CD. Transmission of T. cruzi via blood transfusion and organ transplantation is effectively under control. T. cruzi, however, is a zoonotic pathogen with 100+ vector species widely spread across the Americas; interrupting vector-borne transmission seems therefore unfeasible. Stronger surveillance systems are, and will continue to be, needed to monitor and control CD. Prevention of vertical transmission demands boosting current efforts to screen pregnant and childbearing-aged women. Finally, integral patient care is a critical unmet need in most countries. The decades-long experience of the initiatives, in sum, hints at the practical impossibility of interrupting vector-borne T. cruzi transmission in the Americas. The concept of disease control seems to provide a more realistic description of what can in effect be achieved by 2030.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Roadblocks in Chagas disease care in endemic and nonendemic countries: Argentina, Colombia, Spain, and the United States. The NET-Heart project

Background

Chagas disease (CD) is endemic in Latin America; however, its spread to nontropical areas has raised global interest in this condition. Barriers in access to early diagnosis and treatment of both acute and chronic infection and their complications have led to an increasing disease burden outside of Latin America. Our goal was to identify those barriers and to perform an additional analysis of them based on the Inter American Society of Cardiology (SIAC) and the World Heart Federation (WHF) Chagas Roadmap, at a country level in Argentina, Colombia, Spain, and the United States, which serve as representatives of endemic and nonendemic countries.

Methodology and principal findings

This is a nonsystematic review of articles published in indexed journals from 1955 to 2021 and of gray literature (local health organizations guidelines, local policies, blogs, and media). We classified barriers to access care as (i) existing difficulties limiting healthcare access; (ii) lack of awareness about CD and its complications; (iii) poor transmission control (vectorial and nonvectorial); (iv) scarce availability of antitrypanosomal drugs; and (v) cultural beliefs and stigma. Region-specific barriers may limit the implementation of roadmaps and require the application of tailored strategies to improve access to appropriate care.

Conclusions

Multiple barriers negatively impact the prognosis of CD. Identification of these roadblocks both nationally and globally is important to guide development of appropriate policies and public health programs to reduce the global burden of this disease.

Chagas disease (CD) has been described as an epidemic in Latin America, but its geographical influence is global. One of the biggest challenges in providing care for patients with CD is to improve access to early diagnosis and treatment in order to avoid chronic cardiovascular and gastrointestinal complications. However, different roadblocks interfere with the optimal care of these patients, which facilitates disease progression. While some barriers to care are global in scope, there are additionally national and even local obstacles for patients with CD. Appropriate delineation of these barriers will allow for the development of targeted interventions to improve the outlook for CD patients in both endemic and nonendemic countries alike.

How modelling can help steer the course set by the World Health Organization 2021-2030 roadmap on neglected tropical diseases

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.

Long-term impact of a ten-year intervention program on human and canine Trypanosoma cruzi infection in the Argentine Chaco

BACKGROUND

Interruption of domestic vector-borne transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi is still an unmet goal in several American countries. In 2007 we launched a long-term intervention program aimed to suppress house infestation with the main domestic vector in southern South America (Triatoma infestans) and domestic transmission in Pampa del Indio, a resource-constrained, hyperendemic municipality with 1446 rural houses inhabited by Creole and indigenous people, in the Argentine Chaco ecoregion. Here, we assessed whether the 10-year insecticide-based program combined with community mobilization blocked vector-borne domestic transmission of T. cruzi to humans and dogs.

METHODS

We carried out two municipality-wide, cross-sectional serosurveys of humans and dogs (considered sentinel animals) during 2016-2017 to compare with baseline data. We used a risk-stratified random sampling design to select 273 study houses; 410 people from 180 households and 492 dogs from 151 houses were examined for antibodies to T. cruzi using at least two serological methods.

RESULTS

The seroprevalence of T. cruzi in children aged <16 years was 2.5% in 2017 (i.e., 4- to 11-fold lower than before interventions). The mean annual force of child infection (λ) sharply decreased from 2.18 to 0.34 per 100 person-years in 2017. One of 102 children born after interventions was seropositive for T. cruzi; he had lifetime residence in an apparently uninfested house, no outside travel history, and his mother was T. cruzi-seropositive. No incident case was detected among 114 seronegative people of all ages re-examined serologically. Dog seroprevalence was 3.05%. Among native dogs, λ in 2016 (1.21 per 100 dog-years) was 5 times lower than at program onset. Six native adult dogs born after interventions and with stable lifetime residence were T. cruzi-seropositive: three had exposure to T. infestans at their houses and one was an incident case.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support the interruption of vector-borne transmission of T. cruzi to humans in rural Pampa del Indio. Congenital transmission was the most likely source of the only seropositive child born after interventions. Residual transmission to dogs was likely related to transient infestations and other transmission routes. Sustained vector control supplemented with human chemotherapy can lead to a substantial reduction of Chagas disease transmission in the Argentine Chaco.