Zero human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030: perspectives from quantitative and mathematical modelling

Study of fractional order rabies transmission model via Atangana-Baleanu derivative

In this work, we aim at disentangling the theoretical contribution through mathematical modeling approach to advance the understanding of rabies dynamics and control in livestock population. A fractional order model of rabies, using Atangana-Baleanu fractional operator is created. The analysis of suggested system and its application are both conducted. The capacity of proposed model to forecast the disease can help researchers and livestock health care agencies to take preventive actions.

The first confirmed human case of rabies, Timor-Leste, 2024

In March 2024, the first ever human case of rabies, following a dog bite, was detected in Timor-Leste. This paper briefly discusses the circumstances of transmission, clinical presentation, palliative care of the case and public health measures taken. Timor-Leste was previously considered rabies-free. Any person who is bitten or scratched by an animal that could potentially transmit rabies virus (especially dogs, bats, monkeys or cats) in Timor-Leste should be assessed for consideration of provision of rabies post-exposure prophylaxis.

Benefit-cost analysis of coordinated strategies for control of rabies in Africa

Previous research suggests that dog mass vaccination campaigns can eliminate rabies locally, resulting in large human and animal life gains. Despite these demonstrated benefits, dog vaccination programs remain scarce on the African continent. We conducted a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that engaging into vaccination campaigns is the dominant strategy for most countries even in the absence of coordinated action between them. And quantify how coordinated policy measures across countries in Africa could impact rabies incidence and associated costs. We show that coordinated dog mass vaccination between countries and PEP would lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa with total welfare gains of USD 9.5 billion (95% CI: 8.1 - 11.4 billion) between 2024 and 2054 (30 years). Coordinated disease control between African countries can lead to more socially and ecologically equitable outcomes by reducing the number of lost human lives to almost zero and possibly eliminating rabies.