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Cited by Other Article(s)

Hay Levy M, Cohen N, Marom R, Goldshmidt H, Zeltser D, Mizrahi M, Simhon Y, Gamzu R, Arber N, Lev-Ari S, Capua T, Saiag E. Occult Serologically Confirmed Cases of SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus among the General Population in the Era of the Fourth Vaccination. J Clin Med 2024;13:4953. [PMID: 39201097 PMCID: PMC11355389 DOI: 10.3390/jcm13164953] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/19/2024] [Revised: 08/16/2024] [Accepted: 08/19/2024] [Indexed: 09/02/2024] Open

Affiliation(s)

Mori Hay Levy Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (M.H.L.); (S.L.-A.) Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.)
Neta Cohen Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Pediatric Emergency Department, Dana Dwek Children’s Hospital, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423906, Israel
Rotem Marom Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Division of Clinical Laboratories, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
Hanoch Goldshmidt Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Division of Clinical Laboratories, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
David Zeltser Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Department of Emergency Medicine, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
Michal Mizrahi Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Department of Emergency Medicine, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
Yanay Simhon Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Internal Medicine Department, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
Ronni Gamzu Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Management, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel
Nadir Arber Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Health Promotion Center and Integrated Cancer Prevention Center, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423906, Israel
Shahar Lev-Ari Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (M.H.L.); (S.L.-A.) Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.)
Tali Capua Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Pediatric Emergency Department, Dana Dwek Children’s Hospital, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423906, Israel
Esther Saiag Faculty of Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 6997801, Israel; (N.C.); (R.M.); (H.G.); (D.Z.); (M.M.); (Y.S.); (R.G.); (N.A.); (E.S.) Department of Information Systems and Operation, Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center, Tel Aviv 6423901, Israel

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Cazelles B, Nguyen-Van-Yen B, Champagne C, Comiskey C. Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland under mitigation. BMC Infect Dis 2021;21:735. [PMID: 34344318 PMCID: PMC8329614 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-021-06433-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/30/2020] [Accepted: 07/13/2021] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open

Abstract

BACKGROUND

In Ireland and across the European Union the COVID-19 epidemic waves, driven mainly by the emergence of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 have continued their course, despite various interventions from governments. Public health interventions continue in their attempts to control the spread as they wait for the planned significant effect of vaccination.

METHODS

To tackle this challenge and the observed non-stationary aspect of the epidemic we used a modified SEIR stochastic model with time-varying parameters, following Brownian process. This enabled us to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the transmission rate of COVID-19 with the non-specific hypothesis that it follows a basic stochastic process constrained by the available data. This model is coupled with Bayesian inference (particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method) for parameter estimation and utilized mainly well-documented Irish hospital data.

RESULTS

In Ireland, mitigation measures provided a 78-86% reduction in transmission during the first wave between March and May 2020. For the second wave in October 2020, our reduction estimation was around 20% while it was 70% for the third wave in January 2021. This third wave was partly due to the UK variant appearing in Ireland. In June 2020 we estimated that sero-prevalence was 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2-3.5%) in complete accordance with a sero-prevalence survey. By the end of April 2021, the sero-prevalence was greater than 17% due in part to the vaccination campaign. Finally we demonstrate that the available observed confirmed cases are not reliable for analysis owing to the fact that their reporting rate has as expected greatly evolved.

CONCLUSION

We provide the first estimations of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland and its key parameters. We also quantify the effects of mitigation measures on the virus transmission during and after mitigation for the three waves. Our results demonstrate that Ireland has significantly reduced transmission by employing mitigation measures, physical distancing and lockdown. This has to date avoided the saturation of healthcare infrastructures, flattened the epidemic curve and likely reduced mortality. However, as we await for a full roll out of a vaccination programme and as new variants potentially more transmissible and/or more infectious could continue to emerge and mitigation measures change silent transmission, challenges remain.

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