Modeling the transmission mitigation impact of testing for infectious diseases

A fundamental question of any program focused on the testing and timely diagnosis of a communicable disease is its effectiveness in reducing transmission. Here, we introduce testing effectiveness (TE)-the fraction by which testing and post-diagnosis isolation reduce transmission at the population scale-and a model that incorporates test specifications and usage, within-host pathogen dynamics, and human behaviors to estimate TE. Using TE to guide recommendations, we show that today's rapid diagnostics should be used immediately upon symptom onset to control influenza A and respiratory syncytial virus but delayed by up to two days to control omicron-era severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Furthermore, while rapid tests are superior to reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) to control founder-strain SARS-CoV-2, omicron-era changes in viral kinetics and rapid test sensitivity cause a reversal, with higher TE for RT-qPCR despite longer turnaround times. Last, we illustrate the model's flexibility by quantifying trade-offs in the use of post-diagnosis testing to shorten isolation times.

Polymicrobial Interactions Operative during Pathogen Transmission

Pathogen transmission is a key point not only for infection control and public health interventions but also for understanding the selective pressures in pathogen evolution. The “success” of a pathogen lies not in its ability to cause signs and symptoms of illness but in its ability to be shed from the initial hosts, survive between hosts, and then establish infection in a new host. Recent insights have shown the importance of the interaction between the pathogen and both the commensal microbiome and coinfecting pathogens on shedding, environmental survival, and acquisition of infection. Pathogens have evolved in the context of cooperation and competition with other microbes, and the roles of these cooperations and competitions in transmission can inform novel preventative and therapeutic strategies.

Targeted antiviral treatment using non-ionizing radiation therapy for SARS-CoV-2 and viral pandemics preparedness: Technique, methods and practical notes for clinical application

OBJECTIVE

Pandemic outbreaks necessitate effective responses to rapidly mitigate and control the spread of disease and eliminate the causative organism(s). While conventional chemical and biological solutions to these challenges are characteristically slow to develop and reach public availability; recent advances in device components operating at Super High Frequency (SHF) bands (3-30 GHz) of the electromagnetic spectrum enable novel approaches to such problems.

METHODS

Based on experimentally documented evidence, a clinically relevant in situ radiation procedure to reduce viral loads in patients is devised and presented. Adapted to the currently available medical device technology to cause viral membrane fracture, this procedure selectively inactivates virus particles by forced oscillations arising from Structure Resonant Energy Transfer (SRET) thereby reducing infectivity and disease progression.

RESULTS

Effective resonant frequencies for pleiomorphic Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is calculated to be in the 10-17 GHz range. Using the relation y = -3.308x + 42.9 with x and y representing log10 number of virus particles and the clinical throat swab Ct value respectively; in situ patient-specific exposure duration of ~15x minutes can be utilized to inactivate up to 100% of virus particles in the throat-lung lining, using an irradiation dose of 14.5 ± 1 W/m2; which is within the 200 W/m2 safety standard stipulated by the International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP).

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment is designed to make patients less contagious enhancing faster recoveries and enabling timely control of a spreading pandemic.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

The article provides practically applicable parameters for effective clinical adaptation of this technique to the current pandemic at different levels of healthcare infrastructure and disease prevention besides enabling rapid future viral pandemics response.

Recommendations for respiratory syncytial virus surveillance at national level

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections and hospitalisations among young children and is globally responsible for many deaths in young children, especially in infants aged <6 months. Furthermore, RSV is a common cause of severe respiratory disease and hospitalisation among older adults. The development of new candidate vaccines and monoclonal antibodies highlights the need for reliable surveillance of RSV. In the European Union (EU), no up-to-date general recommendations on RSV surveillance are currently available. Based on outcomes of a workshop with 29 European experts in the field of RSV virology, epidemiology and public health, we provide recommendations for developing a feasible and sustainable national surveillance strategy for RSV that will enable harmonisation and data comparison at the European level. We discuss three surveillance components: active sentinel community surveillance, active sentinel hospital surveillance and passive laboratory surveillance, using the EU acute respiratory infection and World Health Organization (WHO) extended severe acute respiratory infection case definitions. Furthermore, we recommend the use of quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-based assays as the standard detection method for RSV and virus genetic characterisation, if possible, to monitor genetic evolution. These guidelines provide a basis for good quality, feasible and affordable surveillance of RSV. Harmonisation of surveillance standards at the European and global level will contribute to the wider availability of national level RSV surveillance data for regional and global analysis, and for estimation of RSV burden and the impact of future immunisation programmes.

Recommendations for developing a feasible and sustainable national surveillance strategy for respiratory syncytial virus that will enable harmonisation and data comparison at the European level.https://bit.ly/3rWUOOI

Use of the moving epidemic method (MEM) to assess national surveillance data for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Netherlands, 2005 to 2017

Background

To control respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), which causes acute respiratory infections, data and methods to assess its epidemiology are important.

Aim

We sought to describe RSV seasonality, affected age groups and RSV-type distribution over 12 consecutive seasons in the Netherlands, as well as to validate the moving epidemic method (MEM) for monitoring RSV epidemics.

Methods

We used 2005−17 laboratory surveillance data and sentinel data. For RSV seasonality evaluation, epidemic thresholds (i) at 1.2% of the cumulative number of RSV-positive patients per season and (ii) at 20 detections per week (for laboratory data) were employed. We also assessed MEM thresholds.

Results

In laboratory data RSV was reported 25,491 times (no denominator). In sentinel data 5.6% (767/13,577) of specimens tested RSV positive. Over 12 seasons, sentinel data showed percentage increases of RSV positive samples. The average epidemic length was 18.0 weeks (95% confidence intervals (CI):  16.3–19.7) and 16.5 weeks (95% CI: 14.0–18.0) for laboratory and sentinel data, respectively. Epidemics started on average in week 46 (95% CI: 45–48) and 47 (95% CI:  46–49), respectively. The peak was on average in the first week of January in both datasets. MEM showed similar results to the other methods. RSV incidence was highest in youngest (0–1 and >1–2 years) and oldest (>65–75 and > 75 years) age groups, with age distribution remaining stable over time. RSV-type dominance alternated every one or two seasons.

Conclusions

Our findings provide baseline information for immunisation advisory groups. The possibility of employing MEM to monitor RSV epidemics allows prospective, nearly real-time use of surveillance data.

Continuous Invasion by Respiratory Viruses Observed in Rural Households During a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonal Outbreak in Coastal Kenya

Background

Households are high-intensity close-contact environments favorable for transmission of respiratory viruses, yet little is known for low-income settings.

Methods

Active surveillance was completed on 47 households in rural coastal Kenya over 6 months during a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) season. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPSs) were taken from 483 household members twice weekly irrespective of symptoms. Using molecular diagnostics, NPSs from 6 households were screened for 15 respiratory viruses and the remainder of households only for the most frequent viruses observed: rhinovirus (RV), human coronavirus (HCoV; comprising strains 229E, OC43, and NL63), adenovirus (AdV), and RSV (A and B).

Results

Of 16928 NPSs tested for the common viruses, 4259 (25.2%) were positive for ≥1 target; 596 (13.8%) had coinfections. Detection frequencies were 10.5% RV (1780), 7.5% HCoV (1274), 7.3% AdV (1232), and 3.2% RSV (537). On average, each household and individual had 6 and 3 different viruses detected over the study period, respectively. Rhinovirus and HCoV were detected in all the 47 households while AdV and RSV were detected in 45 (95.7%) and 40 (85.1%) households, respectively. The individual risk of infection over the 6-month period was 93.4%, 80.1%, 71.6%, 61.5%, and 37.1% for any virus, RV, HCoV, AdV, and RSV, respectively. NPSs collected during symptomatic days and from younger age groups had higher prevalence of virus detection relative to respective counterparts. RSV was underrepresented in households relative to hospital admission data.

Conclusions

In this household setting, respiratory virus infections and associated illness are ubiquitous. Future studies should address the health and economic implications of these observations.

Risk factors and patterns of household clusters of respiratory viruses in rural Nepal

Viral pneumonia is an important cause of death and morbidity among infants worldwide. Transmission of non-influenza respiratory viruses in households can inform preventative interventions and has not been well-characterised in South Asia. From April 2011 to April 2012, household members of pregnant women enrolled in a randomised trial of influenza vaccine in rural Nepal were surveyed weekly for respiratory illness until 180 days after birth. Nasal swabs were tested by polymerase chain reaction for respiratory viruses in symptomatic individuals. A transmission event was defined as a secondary case of the same virus within 14 days of initial infection within a household. From 555 households, 825 initial viral illness episodes occurred, resulting in 79 transmission events. The overall incidence of transmission was 1.14 events per 100 person-weeks. Risk of transmission incidence was associated with an index case age 1–4 years (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 2.35; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.40–3.96), coinfection as initial infection (IRR 1.94; 95% CI 1.05–3.61) and no electricity in household (IRR 2.70; 95% CI 1.41–5.00). Preventive interventions targeting preschool-age children in households in resource-limited settings may decrease the risk of transmission to vulnerable household members, such as young infants.

Model-based estimates of transmission of respiratory syncytial virus within households

Introduction

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a significant respiratory disease burden in the under 5 population. The transmission pathway to young children is not fully quantified in low-income settings, and this information is required to design interventions.

Methods

We used an individual level transmission model to infer transmission parameters using data collected from 493 individuals distributed across 47 households over a period of 6 months spanning the 2009/2010 RSV season. A total of 208 episodes of RSV were observed from 179 individuals. We model competing transmission risk from within household exposure and community exposure while making a distinction between RSV groups A and B.

Results

We find that 32–53% of all RSV transmissions are between members of the same household; the rate of pair-wise transmission is 58% (95% CrI: 30–74%) lower in larger households (≥8 occupants) than smaller households; symptomatic individuals are 2–7 times more infectious than asymptomatic individuals i.e. 2.48 (95% CrI: 1.22–5.57) among symptomatic individuals with low viral load and 6.7(95% CrI: 2.56–16) among symptomatic individuals with high viral load; previous infection reduces susceptibility to re-infection within the same epidemic by 47% (95% CrI: 17%–68%) for homologous RSV group and 39% (95%CrI: -8%-69%) for heterologous group; RSV B is more frequently introduced into the household, and RSV A is more rapidly transmitted once in the household.

Discussion

Our analysis presents the first transmission modelling of cohort data for RSV and we find that it is important to consider the household social structuring and household size when modelling transmission. The increased infectiousness of symptomatic individuals implies that a vaccine against RSV related disease would also have an impact on infection transmission. Together, the weak cross immunity between RSV groups and the possibility of different transmission niches could form part of the explanation for the group co-existence.