Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Annual risk of hepatitis E virus infection and seroreversion: Insights from a serological cohort in Sitakunda, Bangladesh

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major cause of acute jaundice in South Asia. Gaps in our understanding of transmission are driven by non-specific symptoms and scarcity of diagnostics, impeding rational control strategies. In this context, serological data can provide important proxy measures of infection. We enrolled a population-representative serological cohort of 2,337 individuals in Sitakunda, Bangladesh. We estimated the annual risks of HEV infection and seroreversion both using serostatus changes between paired serum samples collected 9 months apart, and by fitting catalytic models to the age-stratified cross-sectional seroprevalence. At baseline, 15% (95 CI: 14-17%) of people were seropositive, with seroprevalence highest in the relatively urban south. During the study, 27 individuals seroreverted (annual seroreversion risk: 15%, 95 CI: 10-21%), and 38 seroconverted (annual infection risk: 3%, 95CI: 2-5%). Relying on cross-sectional seroprevalence data alone, and ignoring seroreversion, underestimated the annual infection risk five-fold (0.6%, 95 CrI: 0.5-0.6%). When we accounted for the observed seroreversion in a reversible catalytic model, infection risk was more consistent with measured seroincidence. Our results quantify HEV infection risk in Sitakunda and highlight the importance of accounting for seroreversion when estimating infection incidence from cross-sectional seroprevalence data.

Age-Dependent Risk of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Hazard Modeling From Serological Data

BACKGROUND

There is no immunization campaign that currently exist for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Seroprevalence studies are critical for assessing epidemiological dynamics before and during an immunization program. A systematic literature review was conducted to summarize the evidence from seroprevalence studies on RSV.

METHODS

A systematic search of age-dependent RSV seroprevalence was conducted using the PubMed database and EMBASE. Age-dependent force of infections (FoI) and the decay rate of immunity were estimated. A mixture finite model was used, estimating the age-dependent disease state and the antibody concentrations in susceptible and infected or recovered populations.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies were identified from 15 countries, with studies using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay being the most represented. Using a catalytic model, the age-dependent force of infection was estimated to be the lowest in infants aged 6 months to 1 year and increased in older age groups. The proportion ever-infected/recovered was estimated to be above 90% by 3 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of seroprevalence studies covering a broad range of ages are limited. The age-dependent FoI indicated that the risk of infection was greatest among those aged >5 years. Additional data using valid assays are required to describe the transmission dynamics of RSV infection.

Seroepidemiology of the Seasonal Human Coronaviruses NL63, 229E, OC43 and HKU1 in France

Background

The seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) NL63, 229E, OC43, and HKU1 are globally endemic, yet the majority of HCoV infections remain undiagnosed.

Methods

In a cross-sectional study, 2389 serum samples were collected from children and adults in France in 2020. In a longitudinal cohort study, 2520 samples were collected from 898 French individuals followed up between 2020 and 2021. Antibodies to HCoVs were measured using a bead-based multiplex assay.

Results

The rate of waning of anti-HCoV spike immunoglobulin G antibodies was estimated as 0.22-0.47 year^-1 for children, and 0.13-0.27 year^-1 for adults. Seroreversion was estimated as 0.31-1.37 year^-1 in children and 0.19-0.72 year^-1 in adults. The estimated seroconversion rate in children was consistent with 20%-39% of children being infected every year with each HCoV.

Conclusions

The high force of infection in children indicates that HCoVs may be responsible for a substantial proportion of fever episodes experienced by children.

Humoral immune responses against SARS-CoV-2 Spike variants after mRNA vaccination in solid organ transplant recipients

Although SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination has been shown to be safe and effective in the general population, immunocompromised solid organ transplant recipients (SOTRs) were reported to have impaired immune responses after one or two doses of vaccine. In this study, we examined humoral responses induced after the second and the third dose of mRNA vaccine in different SOTR (kidney, liver, lung, and heart). Compared to a cohort of SARS-CoV-2 naïve immunocompetent health care workers (HCWs), the second dose induced weak humoral responses in SOTRs, except for the liver recipients. The third dose boosted these responses but they did not reach the same level as in HCW. Interestingly, although the neutralizing activity against Delta and Omicron variants remained very low after the third dose, Fc-mediated effector functions in SOTR reached similar levels as in the HCW cohort. Whether these responses will suffice to protect SOTR from severe outcome remains to be determined.

Estimating the duration of seropositivity of human seasonal coronaviruses using seroprevalence studies

Background: The duration of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still uncertain, but it is of key clinical and epidemiological importance. Seasonal human coronaviruses (HCoV) have been circulating for longer and, therefore, may offer insights into the long-term dynamics of reinfection for such viruses. Methods: Combining historical seroprevalence data from five studies covering the four circulating HCoVs with an age-structured reverse catalytic model, we estimated the likely duration of seropositivity following seroconversion. Results: We estimated that antibody persistence lasted between 0.9 (95% Credible interval: 0.6 - 1.6) and 3.8 (95% CrI: 2.0 - 7.4) years. Furthermore, we found the force of infection in older children and adults (those over 8.5 [95% CrI: 7.5 - 9.9] years) to be higher compared with young children in the majority of studies. Conclusions: These estimates of endemic HCoV dynamics could provide an indication of the future long-term infection and reinfection patterns of SARS-CoV-2.