Identifying high-risk patients undergoing urgent and emergency surgery

Development and validation of the Ex-Care BR model: a multicentre initiative for identifying Brazilian surgical patients at risk of 30-day in-hospital mortality

BACKGROUND

Surgical risk stratification is crucial for enhancing perioperative assistance and allocating resources efficiently. However, existing models may not capture the complexity of surgical care in Brazil. Using data from various healthcare settings nationwide, we developed a new risk model for 30-day in-hospital mortality (the Ex-Care BR model).

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted in 10 hospitals from different geographic regions in Brazil. Data were analysed using multilevel logistic regression models. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), Brier score, and calibration plots. Derivation and validation cohorts were randomly assigned.

RESULTS

A total of 107,372 patients were included, and 30-day in-hospital mortality was 2.1% (n=2261). The final risk model comprised four predictors related to the patient and surgery (age, ASA physical status classification, surgical urgency, and surgical size), and the random effect related to hospitals. The model showed excellent discrimination (AUROC=0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.93-0.94), calibration, and overall performance (Brier score=0.017) in the derivation cohort (n=75,094). Similar results were observed in the validation cohort (n=32,278) (AUROC=0.93, 95% CI, 0.92-0.93).

CONCLUSIONS

The Ex-Care BR is the first model to consider regional and organisational peculiarities of the Brazilian surgical scene, in addition to patient and surgical factors. It is particularly useful for identifying high-risk surgical patients in situations demanding efficient allocation of limited resources. However, a thorough exploration of mortality variations among hospitals is essential for a comprehensive understanding of risk.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT05796024.

Adhesive small bowel obstruction in elderly patients: a single-center analysis of treatment strategies and clinical outcomes

INTRODUCTION

The incidence of adhesive bowel obstruction (ASBO) progressively increases with age. Strong evidences on the influencing role of age on ASBO clinical course and management are still lacking. Aim of this study is to retrospectively analyze the clinical outcomes of patients older than 65 years of age admitted to a tertiary referral Emergency Department with a diagnosis of ASBO.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We reviewed the clinical records of patients admitted for ASBO in the period 2014-2019. Patients were divided in elderly (≥65 years) and non-elderly (<65 years). Primary endpoint was to compare the all-cause in-hospital mortality and the occurrence of major complications in the two groups. Secondary endpoint was a comparison of clinical presentation, clinical course and management.

RESULTS

We enrolled 285 elderly and 492 non-elderly patients. Vomit was more frequent in the elderly (51.9% vs 34.6%; p < .001), while no difference was evidenced for the remaining symptoms of ASBO presentation. A higher rate of non-operative management (NOM) (26.3% vs 16.5%; p = .010), ICU admission (16% vs 0.6%; p < .001), mortality (2.1% vs 0.2%; p = .007) and cumulative major complications (8.8% vs 3.3%; p = .001), as well as a prolonged hospitalization (8.2 vs 5.4 days; p < .001) was evidenced in the ≥65 years group. Multivariate analysis identified increasing age (OR:2.8; 95%CI:1.09-7.2; p = .040) and Charlson comorbidity index ≥ 2 (OR:2.5; 95% CI:1.2-6.4; p = .050) as the only independent predictors of cumulative major complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the similarity in terms of clinical presentation, elderly patient present higher mortality rate and occurrence of major complications. A comprehensive geriatric assessment is recommended to optimize the diagnostic and clinical strategies in case of ASBO.

Life after 90: Predictors of mortality and performance of the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator in 4,724 nonagenarian patients undergoing emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

The decision to emergently operate on nonagenarian patients (NONAs) can be complex due to the uncertainty about outcomes and goals of care at this advanced age. We sought to study: (1) the outcomes and predictors of mortality for NONAs undergoing emergency general surgery (EGS) and (2) the accuracy of ACS-NSQIP mortality risk calculator in this special population.

METHODS

Using the 2007 to 2015 ACS-NSQIP database, we included all patients older than 90 years of age who underwent an emergent operation with a Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) code for "digestive system." Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of 30-day mortality. NONAs' mortality rates for different combinations of risk factors were also studied and compared to the ACS-NSQIP calculator-predicted mortality rates.

RESULTS

Out of a total of 4,456,809 patients, 4,724 NONAs were included. The overall 30-day patient mortality and morbidity rates were 21% and 45%, respectively. In multivariable analyses, several independent predictors of 30-day mortality were identified, including recent history of weight loss, history of steroid use, smoking, functional dependence, hypoalbuminemia and sepsis or septic shock. The mortality among NONAs with a history of steroid use and a recent history of weight loss was 100%. Similarly, the mortality of NONAs with recent history of weight loss who presented with preoperative septic shock was 93%. The ACS-NSQIP calculator significantly and consistently underestimated the risk of mortality in all NONAs undergoing EGS.

CONCLUSION

Most NONAs undergoing EGS survive the hospital stay and the first 30 postoperative days, even in the presence of significant preexisting comorbidities. However, the combination of recent weight loss with either steroid use or septic shock nearly ensures mortality and should be used in the discussions with patients and families before a decision to operate is made. The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator should be used with caution in these high-risk patients.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level III.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Longer-term Outcomes Among Emergency General Surgery Patients: The Unique Experience of Universally Insured Older Adults

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether racial/ethnic disparities in 30/90/180-day mortality, major morbidity, and unplanned readmissions exist among universally insured older adult (≥65 years) emergency general surgery patients; vary by diagnostic category; and can be explained by variations in geography, teaching status, age-cohort, and a hospital's percentage of minority patients.

SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA

As the US population ages and discussions surrounding the optimal method of insurance provision increasingly enter into national debate, longer-term outcomes are of paramount concern. It remains unclear the extent to which insurance changes disparities throughout patients' postacute recovery period among older adults.

METHODS

Survival analysis of 2008 to 2014 Medicare data using risk-adjusted Cox proportional-hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 6,779,649 older adults were included, of whom 82.8% identified as non-Hispanic white (NHW), 9.2% non-Hispanic black (NHB), 5.6% Hispanic, and 1.5% non-Hispanic Asian (NHA). Relative to NHW patients, each group of minority patients was significantly less likely to die [30-day NHB vs NHW hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 0.88 (0.86-0.89)]. Differences became less apparent as outcomes approached 180 days [180-day NHB vs NHW: 1.00 (0.98-1.02)]. For major morbidity and unplanned readmission, differences among NHW, Hispanic, and NHA patients were comparable. NHB patients did consistently worse. Efforts to explain the occurrence found similar trends across diagnostic categories, but significant differences in disparities attributable to geography and the other included factors that combined accounted for up to 50% of readmission differences between racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

The study found an inversion of racial/ethnic mortality differences and mitigation of non-NHB morbidity/readmission differences among universally insured older adults that decreased with time. Persistent disparities among nonagenarian patients and hospitals managing a regionally large share of minority patients warrant particular concern.

Predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing elective surgery in a university hospital: a prospective cohort

Introduction

Morbidity and mortality associated with urgent or emergency surgeries are high compared to elective procedures. Perioperative risk scores identify the non-elective character as an independent factor of complications and death. The present study aims to characterize the population undergoing non-elective surgeries at the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre and identify the clinical and surgical factors associated with death within 30 days postoperatively.

Methodology

A prospective cohort study of 187 patients undergoing elective surgeries between April and May 2014 at the Hospital de Clínicas, Porto Alegre. Patient-related data, pre-operative risk situations, and surgical information were evaluated. Death in 30 days was the primary outcome measured.

Results

The mean age of the sample was 48.5 years, and 84.4% of the subjects had comorbidities. The primary endpoint was observed in 14.4% of the cases, with exploratory laparotomy being the procedure with the highest mortality (47.7%). After multivariate logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.0360, p < 0.05), anemia (OR 3.961, p < 0.05), acute or chronic renal insufficiency (OR 6.075, p < 0.05), sepsis (OR 7.027, p < 0.05), and patient-related risk factors for mortality, in addition to the large surgery category (OR 7.502, p < 0.05) were identified.

Conclusion

The high mortality rate found may reflect the high complexity of the institution's patients. Knowing the profile of the patients assisted helps in the definition of management priorities, suggesting the need to create specific care lines for groups identified as high risk in order to reduce perioperative complications and deaths.

[Predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients undergoing elective surgery in a university hospital: a prospective cohort]

INTRODUCTION

Morbidity and mortality associated with urgent or emergency surgeries are high compared to elective procedures. Perioperative risk scores identify the non-elective character as an independent factor of complications and death. The present study aims to characterize the population undergoing non-elective surgeries at the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre and identify the clinical and surgical factors associated with death within 30 days postoperatively.

METHODOLOGY

A prospective cohort study of 187 patients undergoing elective surgeries between April and May 2014 at the Hospital de Clínicas, Porto Alegre. Patient-related data, pre-operative risk situations, and surgical information were evaluated. Death in 30 days was the primary outcome measured.

RESULTS

The mean age of the sample was 48.5 years, and 84.4% of the subjects had comorbidities. The primary endpoint was observed in 14.4% of the cases, with exploratory laparotomy being the procedure with the highest mortality (47.7%). After multivariate logistic regression, age (odds ratio [OR] 1.0360, p <0.05), anemia (OR 3.961, p <0.05), acute or chronic renal insufficiency (OR 6.075, p <0.05), sepsis (OR 7.027, p <0.05), and patient-related risk factors for mortality, in addition to the large surgery category (OR 7.502, p <0.05) were identified.

CONCLUSION

The high mortality rate found may reflect the high complexity of the institution's patients. Knowing the profile of the patients assisted helps in the definition of management priorities, suggesting the need to create specific care lines for groups identified as high risk in order to reduce perioperative complications and deaths.

Effect of time to operation on outcomes in adults who underwent emergency general surgery procedure

BACKGROUND

Patients who undergo an emergency procedure have an increase in postoperative morbidity and mortality. Emergency procedures constitute 14.2% of all general surgery procedures and account for 53.5% of deaths. Among this population, time to surgery from arrival to the emergency department (ED) has not been evaluated as an independent risk factor for morbidity and mortality.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Patients who underwent an emergency general surgery procedure from 2013 to 2015 were identified using a local American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (ACS-NSQIP) database. Outcomes of interest included 30-d mortality, all morbidity, and severe morbidity. Multivariate analyses were conducted using a logistic regression model using clinically relevant covariates to determine predictors of the outcome measures.

RESULTS

A total of 974 patients were included in the final analysis. The prolonged median time from ED presentation to OR was predictive of all morbidity (14.3 h versus 13.3 h, P = 0.009) and severe morbidity (13.3 h versus 14.4 h, P = 0.063) on univariate analysis. Time from ED presentation to OR was not predictive of mortality (13.5 h versus 13.6 h, P = 0.474). Multivariate analysis demonstrated an adjusted increased odd of morbidity of 2.3 (95% CI: 1.01-5.24) for priority level A cases within the fourth quartile compared to that of the first quartile of time (P = 0.048).

CONCLUSIONS

This study corroborates with known data that morbidity and mortality increases in patients who are older, have multiple comorbidities, and higher ASA class. Furthermore, the time from ED arrival to the OR is associated with an overall increase in morbidity.

The Need to Consider Longer-term Outcomes of Care: Racial/Ethnic Disparities Among Adult and Older Adult Emergency General Surgery Patients at 30, 90, and 180 Days

OBJECTIVES

Following calls from the National Institutes of Health and American College of Surgeons for "urgently needed" research, the objectives of the present study were to (1) ascertain whether differences in 30/90/180-day mortality, major morbidity, and unplanned readmissions exist among adult (18-64 yr) and older adult (≥65 yr) emergency general surgery (EGS) patients; (2) vary by diagnostic category; and (3) are explained by variations in insurance, income, teaching status, hospital EGS volume, and a hospital's proportion of minority patients.

BACKGROUND

Racial/ethnic disparities have been described in in-hospital and 30-day settings. How longer-term outcomes compare-a critical consideration for the lived experience of patients-has, however, only been limitedly considered.

METHODS

Survival analysis of 2007 to 2011 California State Inpatient Database using Cox proportional hazards models.

RESULTS

A total of 737,092 adults and 552,845 older adults were included. In both cohorts, significant differences in 30/90/180-day mortality, major morbidity, and unplanned readmissions were found, pointing to persistently worse outcomes between non-Hispanic Black and White patients [180-d readmission hazard ratio (95% confidence interval):1.04 (1.03-1.06)] and paradoxically better outcomes among Hispanic adults [0.85 (0.84-0.86)] that were not encountered among Hispanic older adults [1.06 (1.04-1.07)]. Stratified results demonstrated robust morbidity and readmission trends between non-Hispanic Black and White patients for the majority of diagnostic categories, whereas variations in insurance/income/teaching status/EGS volume/proportion of minority patients all significantly altered the effect-combined accounting for up to 80% of risk-adjusted differences between racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Racial/ethnic disparities exist in longer-term outcomes of EGS patients and are, in part, determined by differences in factors associated with emergency care. Efforts such as these are needed to understand the interplay of influences-both in-hospital and during the equally critical, postacute phase-that underlie disparities' occurrence among surgical patients.

Risks of Cardiovascular Adverse Events and Death in Patients with Previous Stroke Undergoing Emergency Noncardiac, Nonintracranial Surgery

Background

The outcomes of emergent noncardiac, nonintracranial surgery in patients with previous stroke remain unknown.

Methods

All emergency surgeries performed in Denmark (2005 to 2011) were analyzed according to time elapsed between previous ischemic stroke and surgery. The risks of 30-day mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events were estimated as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs using adjusted logistic regression models in a priori defined groups (reference was no previous stroke). In patients undergoing surgery immediately (within 1 to 3 days) or early after stroke (within 4 to 14 days), propensity-score matching was performed.

Results

Of 146,694 nonvascular surgeries (composing 98% of all emergency surgeries), 5.3% had previous stroke (mean age, 75 yr [SD = 13]; 53% women, 50% major orthopedic surgery). Antithrombotic treatment and atrial fibrillation were more frequent and general anesthesia less frequent in patients with previous stroke (all P &lt; 0.001). Risks of major adverse cardiovascular events and mortality were high for patients with stroke less than 3 months (20.7 and 16.4% events; OR = 4.71 [95% CI, 4.18 to 5.32] and 1.65 [95% CI, 1.45 to 1.88]), and remained increased for stroke within 3 to 9 months (10.3 and 12.3%; OR = 1.93 [95% CI, 1.55 to 2.40] and 1.20 [95% CI, 0.98 to 1.47]) and stroke more than 9 months (8.8 and 11.7%; OR = 1.62 [95% CI, 1.43 to 1.84] and 1.20 [95% CI, 1.08 to 1.34]) compared with no previous stroke (2.3 and 4.8% events). Major adverse cardiovascular events were significantly lower in 323 patients undergoing immediate surgery (21%) compared with 323 successfully propensity-matched early surgery patients (29%; P = 0.029).

Conclusions

Adverse cardiovascular outcomes and mortality were greatly increased among patients with recent stroke. However, events were higher 4 to 14 days after stroke compared with 1 to 3 days after stroke.

Preoperative assessment of surgical risk: creation of a scoring tool to estimate 1-year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery in the elderly patient

BACKGROUND

The risk of mortality after emergency general surgery (EGS) in elderly patients is prolonged beyond initial hospitalization. Our objective was to develop a preoperative scoring tool to quantify risk of 1-year mortality.

METHODS

Three hundred ninety EGS patients aged 70 years or more were analyzed. Risk factors for 1-year mortality were identified using stepwise-forward logistic multivariate regression and weights assigned using natural logarithm of odds ratios. A geriatric emergency surgery mortality (GEM) score was derived from the aggregate of weighted scores. Leave-one-out cross-validation was performed.

RESULTS

One-year mortality was 32%. Risk factors and their weights were: acute kidney injury (2), American Society of Anesthesiology class greater than or equal to 4 (2), Charlson Comorbidity Index greater than or equal to 4 (1), albumin less than 3.5 mg/dL (1), and body mass index (less than 18.5 kg/m² [1]; 18.5 to 29.9 kg/m² [0]; ≥30 kg/m² [-1]). One-year mortality was: GEM 0 to 1 (0% to 7%); GEM 2 to 5 (32% to 68%); GEM 6 to 8 (94% to 100%). C-statistics were .82 and .75 in training and validation data sets, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

A simple score using 5 clinical variables predicts 1-year mortality after EGS with reasonable accuracy and assists in preoperative counseling.

Surgeons' Perspectives on Avoiding Nonbeneficial Treatments in Seriously Ill Older Patients with Surgical Emergencies: A Qualitative Study

BACKGROUND

Clinical decisions for seriously ill older patients with surgical emergencies are highly complex. Measuring the benefits of burdensome treatments in this context is fraught with uncertainty. Little is known about how surgeons formulate treatment decisions to avoid nonbeneficial surgery, or engage in preoperative conversations about end-of-life (EOL) care.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to describe how surgeons approach such discussions, and to identify modifiable factors to reduce nonbeneficial surgery near the EOL.

DESIGN

Purposive and snowball sampling were used to recruit a national sample of emergency general surgeons. Semistructured interviews were conducted between February and May 2014.

MEASUREMENTS

Three independent coders performed qualitative coding using NVivo software (NVivo version 10.0, QSR International). Content analysis was used to identify factors important to surgical decision making and EOL communication.

RESULTS

Twenty-four surgeons were interviewed. Participants felt responsible for conducting EOL conversations with seriously ill older patients and their families before surgery to prevent nonbeneficial treatments. However, wide differences in prognostic estimates among surgeons, inadequate data about postoperative quality of life (QOL), patients and surrogates who were unprepared for EOL conversations, variation in perceptions about the role of palliative care, and time constraints are contributors to surgeons providing nonbeneficial operations. Surgeons reported performing operations they knew would not benefit the patient to give the family time to come to terms with the patient's demise.

CONCLUSIONS

Emergency general surgeons feel responsible for having preoperative discussions about EOL care with seriously ill older patients to avoid nonbenefical surgery. However, surgeons identified multiple factors that undermine adequate communication and lead to nonbeneficial surgery.

Mortality after emergency surgery continues to rise after discharge in the elderly: Predictors of 1-year mortality

BACKGROUND

It is known that emergency surgery in the elderly is associated with high short-term mortality, but longer-term outcomes are not well described. We hypothesized that 30-day mortality may underestimate the true operative mortality experienced in this cohort. The purposes of this study were to characterize postoperative mortality rates extending to 1 year and to identify preoperative predictors of 1 year mortality after emergency abdominal surgery.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the records of all patients older than 70 years who underwent emergency abdominal surgery at a major teaching hospital between 2006 and 2011. Demographics, preoperative physiology, prehospital status, body mass index, laboratory values, Charlson scores, comorbid conditions, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and operative details were recorded. The primary end point was 1-year mortality. Complementary log-log binary regression was used to determine independent predictors of death. Model discrimination was evaluated using the c statistic.

RESULTS

A total of 390 patients met our inclusion criteria. The mean age was 79 years, and 56% were women. Postoperative mortality was 16.2% at 30 days and 32.5% at 1 year, reflecting a doubling of mortality over 11 months. Independent preoperative predictors of 1-year mortality were Charlson score of 4 or higher (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38-2.34), American Society of Anesthesiologists class of 4 or higher (HR, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.22-2.21), albumin less than 3.5 (HR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.31-2.28), and body mass index lower than 18.5 (HR, 3.36; 95% CI, 1.48-6.86). The c statistic was 0.81.

CONCLUSION

The 1-year mortality after emergency surgery in the elderly is significantly higher than that at 30 days. We identified a constellation of preoperative clinical markers that were highly predictive of this poor late outcome. The presence of these findings in the emergency setting should prompt preoperative discussion about treatment goals and encourage surgeons to set realistic expectations about outcomes with the patient and family. Future studies will develop a clinical scoring tool that can be applied at the bedside to provide more effective counseling for this high-risk population.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiologic/prognostic study, level III; therapeutic study, level IV.

Identification of the high risk emergency surgical patient: Which risk prediction model should be used?

Introduction

National guidance states that all patients having emergency surgery should have a mortality risk assessment calculated on admission so that the ‘high risk’ patient can receive the appropriate seniority and level of care. We aimed to assess if peri-operative risk scoring tools could accurately calculate mortality and morbidity risk.

Methods

Mortality risk scores for 86 consecutive emergency laparotomies, were calculated using pre-operative (ASA, Lee index) and post-operative (POSSUM, P-POSSUM and CR-POSSUM) risk calculation tools. Morbidity risk scores were calculated using the POSSUM predicted morbidity and compared against actual morbidity according to the Clavien–Dindo classification.

Results

The actual mortality was 10.5%. The average predicted risk scores for all laparotomies were: ASA 26.5%, Lee Index 2.5%, POSSUM 29.5%, P-POSSUM 18.5%, CR-POSSUM 10.5%.

Complications occurred following 67 laparotomies (78%). The majority (51%) of complications were classified as Clavien–Dindo grade 2–3 (non-life-threatening).

Patients having a POSSUM morbidity risk of greater than 50% developed significantly more life-threatening complications (CD 4–5) compared with those who predicted less than or equal to 50% morbidity risk (P = 0.01).

Discussion

Pre-operative risk stratification remains a challenge because the Lee Index under-predicts and ASA over-predicts mortality risk. Post-operative risk scoring using the CR-POSSUM is more accurate and we suggest can be used to identify patients who require intensive care post-operatively.

Conclusions

In the absence of accurate risk scoring tools that can be used on admission to hospital it is not possible to reliably audit the achievement of national standards of care for the ‘high-risk’ patient.

•

Emergency surgical patients require a mortality risk assessment upon admission.

•

There is wide variability of risk prediction in the available risk scoring methods.

•

Pre-operative risk scores do not reliably identify the high risk surgical patient.

•

The CR-POSSUM score predicts mortality risk accurately in emergency laparotomy.

•

The CR-POSSUM may be a useful tool in guiding the level of post-operative care.

Using the age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index to predict outcomes in emergency general surgery

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the role of the Charlson age-comorbidity index (CACI), a weighted comorbidity index that reflects cumulative increased likelihood of 1-year mortality, in predicting perioperative outcomes in an emergency general surgery population at a large Canadian teaching hospital.

METHODS

A retrospective chart review of emergency general surgery admissions in 2010 was conducted. Patients who had surgery were identified. Mode of surgery and CACI were recorded, as well as measures of outcome, including 30-day mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A multivariate stepwise logistic regression model was created to assess the effect of age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index on postoperative outcomes while controlling for the effect of possible confounders. The prediction ability of CACI for mortality was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analyses considering the area under the curve and its 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Of the 529 admissions to general surgery from the emergency department, 257 patients underwent a surgical intervention. The CACI scores ranged from 0 to 16. We described a total of 11 deaths (4.3%) and 30 ICU admissions (11.7%). CACI was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio,1.39; 95% CI, 1.11-1.73; p = 0.0034). Receiver operating characteristic analysis was consistent with high accuracy of CACI for mortality prediction alone, resulting in area under the curve or c statistic of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.84-0.95). CACI was similar in predicting mortality to a multivariate model. CACI was also found to be associated with ICU admission (adjusted odds ratio, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01-1.37; p < 0.0382). CACI is not as good a predictor for ICU admission when compared with the multivariate model.

CONCLUSION

We have shown that the CACI is a valid tool for 30-day mortality prediction in the context of emergency general surgery.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognostic study, level III.

Management and outcomes of small bowel obstruction in older adult patients: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this research was to examine the morbidity, mortality and rate of recurrent bowel obstruction associated with the treatment of small bowel obstruction (SBO) in older adults.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled all patients 70 years or older with an SBO who were admitted to a tertiary care teaching centre between Jul. 1, 2011, and Sept. 30, 2012. Data regarding presentation, investigations, treatment and outcomes were collected.

RESULTS

Of the 104 patients admitted with an SBO, 49% were managed nonoperatively and 51% underwent surgery. Patients who underwent surgery experienced more complications (64% v. 27%, p = 0.002) and stayed in hospital longer (10 v. 3 d, p < 0.001) than patients managed nonoperatively. Nonoperative management was associated with a high rate of recurrent SBO: 31% after a median follow-up of 17 months. Of the patients managed operatively, 60% underwent immediate surgery and 40% underwent surgery after attempted nonoperative management. Patients in whom nonoperative management failed underwent surgery after a median of 2 days, and 89% underwent surgery within 5 days. The rate of bowel resection was high (29%) among those who underwent delayed surgery. Surgery after failed nonoperative management was associated with a mortality of 14% versus 3% for those who underwent immediate surgery; however, this difference was not significant.

CONCLUSION

These data suggest that some elderly patients with SBO may be waiting too long for surgery.

Prophylactic radiotherapy against heterotopic ossification following internal fixation of acetabular fractures: a comparative estimate of risk

OBJECTIVE

Radiotherapy (RT) is effective in preventing heterotopic ossification (HO) around acetabular fractures requiring surgical reconstruction. We audited outcomes and estimated risks from RT prophylaxis, and alternatives of indometacin or no prophylaxis.

METHODS

34 patients underwent reconstruction of acetabular fractures through a posterior approach, followed by a 8-Gy single fraction. The mean age was 44 years. The mean time from surgery to RT was 1.1 days. The major RT risk is radiation-induced fatal cancer. The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) method was used to estimate risk, and compared with a method (Trott and Kemprad) specifically for estimating RT risk for benign disease. These were compared with risks associated with indometacin and no prophylaxis.

RESULTS

28 patients (82%) developed no HO; 6 developed Brooker Class I; and none developed Class II-IV HO. The ICRP method suggests a risk of fatal cancer in the range of 1 in 1000 to 1 in 10,000; the Trott and Kemprad method suggests 1 in 3000. For younger patients, this may rise to 1 in 2000; and for elderly patients, it may fall to 1 in 6000. The risk of death from gastric bleeding or perforation from indometacin is 1 in 180 to 1 in 900 in older patients. Without prophylaxis risk of death from reoperation to remove HO is 1 in 4000 to 1 in 30,000.

CONCLUSION

These results are encouraging, consistent with much larger series and endorse our multidisciplinary management. Risk estimates can be used in discussion with patients.

ADVANCES IN KNOWLEDGE

The risk from RT prophylaxis is small, it is safer than indometacin and substantially overlaps with the range for no prophylaxis.

Prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality in elderly patients undergoing acute gastrointestinal surgery: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients undergoing acute gastrointestinal (GI) surgery experience increased morbidity and mortality compared with younger and elective patients. Prognostic factors can be used to counsel patients of these risks and, if modifiable, to minimize them. We reviewed the literature on prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in elderly patients undergoing acute GI surgery.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase using a strategy developed in collaboration with an expert librarian. Studies examining independent associations between prognostic factors and morbidity or mortality in patients aged 65 and older undergoing acute GI surgery were selected. We extracted data using a standardized form and assessed study quality using the QUIPS tool.

RESULTS

Nine cohort studies representing 2958 patients satisfied our selection criteria. All studies focused on postoperative mortality. Thirty-four prognostic factors were examined, with significant variability across studies. There was limited or conflicting evidence for most prognostic factors. Meta-analysis was only possible for the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score, which was found to be associated with mortality in 4 studies (pooled odds ratio 2.77, 95% confidence interval 0.92-8.41).

CONCLUSION

While acute GI surgery in elderly patients is becoming increasingly common, the literature on prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality in this patient population lags behind. Further research is needed to help guide patient care and potentially improve outcomes.

Changes in hip fracture incidence, mortality and length of stay over the last decade in an Australian major trauma centre

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to describe the population-based longitudinal trends in incidence, 30-day mortality and length of stay of hip fracture patients in a tertiary referral trauma centre in Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia, and identify the factors associated with increased 30-day mortality.

METHODS

A retrospective database and chart review was conducted to patients aged ≥65 years with a diagnosis of femoral neck or pertrochanteric fracture admitted to the John Hunter Hospital between 01 January 2002 and 30 December 2011. The main outcome measure was 30-day mortality; secondary outcome was acute length of stay.

RESULTS

There were 4,269 eligible patients (427±20 per year) with hip fractures over the 10-year study period. The absolute incidence increased slightly (p=0.1) but the age-adjusted rate decreased (p≤0.0001). The average age (83.5±7.1 years) and percentage of females (73.7%) did not change. Length of stay increased by a factor of 2.5% per year (p<0.0001). Thirty-day mortality decreased from 12.3% in 2002 to 8.20% in 2011 (p=0.0008). Independent risk factors associated with increased 30-day mortality were longer admissions (p<0.0001), increased age (p=0.005), dementia (p=0.01), male gender (p<0.0001), higher American Society of Anaesthesiologists score (p<0.0001), and longer time to operating theatre (p=0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the relative ageing of our population, a decrease in the age-standardised rate of fractured hip in elderly patients has seen the number of admissions remain unchanged in our institution from 2002 to 2011. There was a decrease in 30-day mortality, while length of stay increased.

The Waterlow score for risk assessment in surgical patients

Introduction

Perioperative scoring systems aim to predict outcome following surgery and are used in preoperative counselling to guide management and to facilitate internal or external audit. The Waterlow score is used prospectively in many UK hospitals to stratify the risk of decubitus ulcer development. The primary aim of this study was to assess the potential value of this existing scoring system in the prediction of mortality and morbidity in a general surgical and vascular cohort.

Methods

A total of 101 consecutive moderate to high risk emergency and elective surgical patients were identified through a single institution database. The preoperative Waterlow score and outcome data pertaining to that admission were collected. The discriminatory power of the Waterlow score was compared against that of the American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade and the Portsmouth Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM).

Results

The inpatient mortality rate was 17% and the 30-day morbidity rate was 29%. A statistically significant association was demonstrated between the preoperative Waterlow score and inpatient mortality (p<0.0001) and 30-day morbidity (p=0.0002). Using a threshold Waterlow score of 20 to dichotomise risk, accuracies of 0.84 and 0.76 for prediction of mortality and morbidity were demonstrated. In comparison with P-POSSUM, the preoperative Waterlow score performed well on receiver operating characteristic analysis. With respect to mortality, the area under the curve was 0.81 (0.80–0.85) and for morbidity it was 0.72 (0.69–0.76). The ASA grade achieved a similar level of discrimination.

Conclusions

The Waterlow score is collected routinely by nursing staff in many hospitals and might therefore be an attractive means of predicting postoperative morbidity and mortality. It might also function to stratify perioperative risk for comparison of surgical outcome data. A prospective study comparing these risk prediction scores is required to support these findings.

Characterizing peritoneal dialysis catheter use in pediatric patients after cardiac surgery

OBJECTIVE

Children who undergo cardiac surgery are at high risk for renal insufficiency and abdominal compartment syndrome. Peritoneal dialysis catheter (PDC) implantation is used in this population for abdominal decompression and access for dialysis. However, there is no consensus regarding PDC use, and the practice varies widely. This study was undertaken to assess associated factors, outcomes, and variability in the use of PDC in patients who have undergone cardiac surgery.

METHODS

The cohort was obtained from the Kids' Inpatient Database, years 2006 and 2009. Patients who underwent cardiac surgery were included and the subset that underwent PDC implantation during the same hospitalization was identified. Univariable and multivariable analyses assessed factors associated with PDC and survival.

RESULTS

A cohort of 28,259 patients underwent cardiac surgery, of whom 558 (2%) had PDCs placed. In the PDC group, 39.1% (n = 218) had acute renal failure whereas 3.5% or patients (n = 974) in the non-PDC group had acute renal failure. Among patients receiving PDC, mortality was 20.3% (n = 113; vs 3.4% overall mortality, n = 955). Excluding patients with acute renal failure, mortality remained 12% (n = 41) for the PDC group. Factors associated significantly with PDC placement in the overall cohort were younger age, greater surgical complexity, nonelective admission, hospital region, use of cardiopulmonary bypass, and acute renal failure.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients receiving PDC after cardiac surgery had 20% mortality, which remained 12% after excluding patients with acute renal failure. Given the variability in PDC use and poor outcomes, further research is needed to assess the possible benefit of earlier intervention for peritoneal access in this high-risk cohort.

Minimally invasive surgery is safe and effective for urgent and emergent colectomy

OBJECTIVE

There are a limited number of studies describing the role of minimally invasive colectomy for urgent or emergent conditions of the large bowel. We hypothesize that laparoscopic colectomy in urgent and emergent setting can be performed safely in select settings.

METHOD

A cohort of patients treated at a single institution from 2001 to 2006 was identified from a prospective database. Patients who underwent open or minimally invasive surgery (MIS), including laparoscopic (LAP) or hand-assisted laparoscopic surgery (HALS) colectomy for urgent and emergent conditions were included.

RESULTS

A total of 68 [open 32, MIS 36 [HALS 22, LAP 14)] patients underwent urgent or emergent colectomy on our colorectal service during the 5-year time period. Patients with toxic colitis were more often selected for MIS. Patients with colon perforation or large bowel obstruction were more often selected for open surgery. The MIS group had a lower body mass index (BMI), lower American Society of Anesthesiologists fitness grade and was more likely to have been immunosuppressed. There was no difference in patient morbidity between the open and MIS groups. The MIS group had a longer median operative time and fewer cases of prolonged hospitalization.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that minimally invasive colectomy by experienced surgeons appears to be safe and effective for appropriately selected patients with emergent and urgent conditions of the large bowel.

Risk factors for perioperative mortality after lower extremity arthroplasty: a population-based study of 6,901,324 patient discharges

The goal of this study was to provide nationally representative data on characteristics of patients who died after hip and knee arthroplasty and to determine risk factors for such outcome. Using national in-patient data collected between 1990 and 2004, we identified a cumulative in-hospital mortality rate of 0.35% among an estimated 6,901,324 procedures. The strongest independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality were pulmonary embolism and cerebrovascular complications, which increased the odds for a fatal outcome by approximately 40-fold. Preoperative risk factors for in-hospital mortality were revision total hip arthroplasty, advanced age, and the presence of a number of comorbid diseases, predominantly dementia, renal, and cerebrovascular disease. Our results can be used to identify patients at risk for fatal outcome and implement interventions to reduce such risk.

Ischemic colitis: analysis of risk factors for postoperative mortality

BACKGROUND

Ischemic colitis is a disease with high postoperative mortality when surgery is necessary. The definition of risk factors for perioperative mortality, which is currently lacking in the literature, could be helpful in clinical decision making and in optimizing perioperative treatment.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Based on a prospective database, 85 consecutive patients undergoing surgery for ischemic colitis between November 04, 2001 and October, 26, 2004 at the Department of Surgery, University of Heidelberg, were included in this study. The influence of different known factors on perioperative mortality such as age, type of operation, blood loss, comorbidities, hospital course, and complications was tested by univariate and multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Sixty-seven percent of patients were operated as emergency cases (within 24 h after surgical evaluation). About half of the patients underwent subtotal or total colectomy and 80% had stoma creation. Twenty-two percent of patients developed surgical complications and 47% of patients died in the further postoperative course. Univariate analysis showed underlying cardiovascular diseases, American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) status, emergency surgery, total colectomy, elevated intraoperative blood loss and intraoperative allogeneic blood transfusion or transfusion of fresh frozen plasma to be associated with an increased postoperative mortality. Multivariate analysis confirmed ASA status > III, emergency surgery, and blood loss to be independently associated with postoperative mortality in ischemic colitis.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality of patients requiring surgery for ischemic colitis will remain high as the majority of afflicted patients are patients with significant comorbidities in a reduced general condition. But earlier diagnosis and measures to reduce blood loss may contribute to improving the overall outcome.

Comparison of different methods of risk stratification in urgent and emergency surgery

Background

The aim was to compare a number of risk scoring systems prospectively in a cohort of patients who underwent non-elective surgery.

Methods

This was a cohort study of 2349 consecutive patients who had urgent or emergency surgery in a district general hospital in the UK. All patients were scored prospectively using the Revised Goldman Cardiac Risk Index (RGCRI), Portsmouth modification of the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (P-POSSUM), Surgical Risk Score (SRS) and Biochemistry and Haematology Outcome Models (BHOM). Actual 30-day and 1-year survival rates were compared with the predicted outcomes using receiver–operator characteristic (ROC) curves and Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis.

Results

Some 141 patients (6·0 per cent) died within 30 days of operation. This increased to 254 (10·8 per cent) by 1 year. The area under the ROC curve for death within 30 days was 0·90 for P-POSSUM, 0·85 for SRS, 0·84 for BHOM and 0·73 for RGCRI. Only the first three risk scores were able to discriminate accurately within the groups (area under ROC curve over 0·8), with no significant variation between expected and observed mortality rates confirmed by Hosmer–Lemeshow analysis. Similar results were found for the ability of each score to predict outcome at 1 year.

Conclusion

P-POSSUM, SRS and BHOM scoring systems were all able to predict outcome after emergency and urgent surgery, but the SRS had the advantage of ease of calculation. BHOM requires only the most commonly available blood test data and the computer holding these data can easily perform the calculation.d.

Lessons learned from a randomised controlled study of perioperative beta blockade in high risk patients undergoing emergency surgery

BACKGROUND

Perioperative beta blockade has been shown to reduce mortality after major elective surgery. The aim of this study was to determine whether it could reduce the rate of death and morbidity from cardiac complications in high risk patients undergoing emergency surgery.

METHODS

Over a one-year interval all patients undergoing major non-elective orthopaedic or general surgery were screened to identify those at high risk of cardiac complications. Consenting, high risk patients were randomly allocated atenolol or placebo for seven days, commencing at anaesthetic induction. Deaths and cardiac complications within 30 days were recorded.

RESULTS

Some 2351 patients had an emergency operation; 145 were at high risk and eligible for the study. Of 89 patients approached, 57 initially consented. Only 38 patients, however, completed the study protocol, 19 were withdrawn. Of those who completed the study, 5/20 patients in the placebo group and 3/18 in the treatment group died before hospital discharge (p=0.520). Four others in the placebo group and two in the atenolol group had post-operative non-fatal cardiac events (positive troponin T), p=0.311.

CONCLUSIONS

This study of emergency surgery proved more difficult than similar trials in elective surgery. The final study groups were small and there were no significant differences in outcomes. A much larger study is required for a definitive answer.