Preventing Zika Virus Infection during Pregnancy Using a Seasonal Window of Opportunity for Conception

From Mosquito Bites to Sexual Transmission: Evaluating Mouse Models of Zika Virus Infection

Following the recent outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections in Latin America, ZIKV has emerged as a global health threat due to its ability to induce neurological disease in both adults and the developing fetus. ZIKV is largely mosquito-borne and is now endemic in many parts of Africa, Asia, and South America. However, several reports have demonstrated persistent ZIKV infection of the male reproductive tract and evidence of male-to-female sexual transmission of ZIKV. Sexual transmission may broaden the reach of ZIKV infections beyond its current geographical limits, presenting a significant threat worldwide. Several mouse models of ZIKV infection have been developed to investigate ZIKV pathogenesis and develop effective vaccines and therapeutics. However, the majority of these models focus on mosquito-borne infection, while few have considered the impact of sexual transmission on immunity and pathogenesis. This review will examine the advantages and disadvantages of current models of mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted ZIKV and provide recommendations for the effective use of ZIKV mouse models.

The Circadian Clock and Viral Infections

The circadian clock controls several aspects of mammalian physiology and orchestrates the daily oscillations of biological processes and behavior. Our circadian rhythms are driven by an endogenous central clock in the brain that synchronizes with clocks in peripheral tissues, thereby regulating our immune system and the severity of infections. These rhythms affect the pharmacokinetics and efficacy of therapeutic agents and vaccines. The core circadian regulatory circuits and clock-regulated host pathways provide fertile ground to identify novel antiviral therapies. An increased understanding of the role circadian systems play in regulating virus infection and the host response to the virus will inform our clinical management of these diseases. This review provides an overview of the experimental and clinical evidence reporting on the interplay between the circadian clock and viral infections, highlighting the importance of virus-clock research.

Drivers of Infectious Disease Seasonality: Potential Implications for COVID-19

Not 1 year has passed since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its emergence, great uncertainty has surrounded the potential for COVID-19 to establish as a seasonally recurrent disease. Many infectious diseases, including endemic human coronaviruses, vary across the year. They show a wide range of seasonal waveforms, timing (phase), and amplitudes, which differ depending on the geographical region. Drivers of such patterns are predominantly studied from an epidemiological perspective with a focus on weather and behavior, but complementary insights emerge from physiological studies of seasonality in animals, including humans. Thus, we take a multidisciplinary approach to integrate knowledge from usually distinct fields. First, we review epidemiological evidence of environmental and behavioral drivers of infectious disease seasonality. Subsequently, we take a chronobiological perspective and discuss within-host changes that may affect susceptibility, morbidity, and mortality from infectious diseases. Based on photoperiodic, circannual, and comparative human data, we not only identify promising future avenues but also highlight the need for further studies in animal models. Our preliminary assessment is that host immune seasonality warrants evaluation alongside weather and human behavior as factors that may contribute to COVID-19 seasonality, and that the relative importance of these drivers requires further investigation. A major challenge to predicting seasonality of infectious diseases are rapid, human-induced changes in the hitherto predictable seasonality of our planet, whose influence we review in a final outlook section. We conclude that a proactive multidisciplinary approach is warranted to predict, mitigate, and prevent seasonal infectious diseases in our complex, changing human-earth system.

Comprehensive Profiling of Zika Virus Risk with Natural and Artificial Mitigating Strategies, United States

Zika virus is transitioning to become a long-term public health challenge, and countries should remain informed of the risk for emergence. We developed a stochastic epidemiologic model to profile risk for Zika virus emergence, including trimester-specific fetal risk across time, in all 3,208 counties in the United States, including Puerto Rico. Validation against known transmission in North America demonstrated accuracy to predict epidemic dynamics and absolute case counts across scales (R² = 0.98). We found that, although sporadic single transmission events could occur in most US counties, outbreaks will likely be restricted to the Gulf Coast region and to late spring through autumn. Seasonal fluctuations in birth rates will confer natural population-level protection against early-trimester infections. Overall, outbreak control will be more effective and efficient than prevention, and vaccination will be most effective at >70% coverage. Our county-level risk profiles should serve as a critical resource for resource allocation.

Crosstalk between RNA Metabolism and Cellular Stress Responses during Zika Virus Replication

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne virus associated with neurological disorders such as Guillain-Barré syndrome and microcephaly. In humans, ZIKV is able to replicate in cell types from different tissues including placental cells, neurons, and microglia. This intricate virus-cell interaction is accompanied by virally induced changes in the infected cell aimed to promote viral replication as well as cellular responses aimed to counteract or tolerate the virus. Early in the infection, the 11-kb positive-sense RNA genome recruit ribosomes in the cytoplasm and the complex is translocated to the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) for viral protein synthesis. In this process, ZIKV replication is known to induce cellular stress, which triggers both the expression of innate immune genes and the phosphorylation of eukaryotic translation initiation factor 2 (eIF2α), shutting-off host protein synthesis. Remodeling of the ER during ZIKV replication also triggers the unfolded protein response (UPR), which induces changes in the cellular transcriptional landscapes aimed to tolerate infection or trigger apoptosis. Alternatively, ZIKV replication induces changes in the adenosine methylation patterns of specific host mRNAs, which have different consequences in viral replication and cellular fate. In addition, the ZIKV RNA genome undergoes adenosine methylation by the host machinery, which results in the inhibition of viral replication. However, despite these relevant findings, the full scope of these processes to the outcome of infection remains poorly elucidated. This review summarizes relevant aspects of the complex crosstalk between RNA metabolism and cellular stress responses against ZIKV and discusses their possible impact on viral pathogenesis.

A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern

INTRODUCTION

Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was.

METHODS

To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers.

RESULTS

2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak in the Americas. While the use of preprints improved the accessibility of ZIKV predictions by a median of 119 days sooner than journal publication dates, they were used in only 30% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Many ZIKV predictions were published during the 2016-2017 pandemic. The accessibility, reproducibility, timeliness, and incorporation of uncertainty in these published predictions varied and indicates there is substantial room for improvement. To enhance the utility of analytical tools for outbreak response it is essential to improve the sharing of model data, code, and preprints for future outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Is the non-identity problem relevant to public health and policy? An online survey

Background

The non-identity problem arises when our actions in the present could change which people will exist in the future, for better or worse. Is it morally better to improve the lives of specific future people, as compared to changing which people exist for the better? Affecting the timing of fetuses being conceived is one case where present actions change the identity of future people. This is relevant to questions of public health policy, as exemplified in some responses to the Zika epidemic. There is philosophical disagreement about the relevance of non-identity: some hold that non-identity is not relevant, while others think that the only morally relevant actions are those that affect specific people. Given this disagreement, we investigated the intuitions about the moral relevance of non-identity within an educated sample of the public, because there was previously little empirical data on the public’s views on the non-identity problem.

Methods

We performed an online survey with a sample of the educated general public. The survey assessed participants’ preferences between person-affecting and impersonal interventions for Zika, and their views on other non-identity thought experiments, once the non-identity problem had been explained. It aimed to directly measure the importance of non-identity in participants’ moral decision-making.

Results

We collected 763 valid responses from the survey. Half of the participants (50%) had a graduate degree, 47% had studied philosophy at a university level, and 20% had read about the non-identity problem before. Most participants favoured person-affecting interventions for Zika over impersonal ones, but the majority claimed that non-identity did not influence their decision (66% of those preferring person-affecting interventions, 95% of those preferring impersonal ones). In one non-identity thought experiment participants were divided, but in another they primarily answered that impersonally reducing the quality of life of future people would be wrong, harmful and blameworthy, even though no specific individuals would be worse off.

Conclusions

Non-identity appeared to play a minor role in participants’ moral decision-making. Moreover, participants seem to either misunderstand the non-identity problem, or hold non-counterfactual views of harm that do not define harm as making someone worse off than they would have been otherwise.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12910-019-0379-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Potential inconsistencies in Zika surveillance data and our understanding of risk during pregnancy

Background

A significant increase in microcephaly incidence was reported in Northeast Brazil at the end of 2015, which has since been attributed to an epidemic of Zika virus (ZIKV) infections earlier that year. Further incidence of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) was expected following waves of ZIKV infection throughout Latin America; however, only modest increases in microcephaly and CZS incidence have since been observed. The quantitative relationship between ZIKV infection, gestational age and congenital outcome remains poorly understood.

Methodology/Principle findings

We characterised the gestational-age-varying risk of microcephaly given ZIKV infection using publicly available incidence data from multiple locations in Brazil and Colombia. We found that the relative timings and shapes of ZIKV infection and microcephaly incidence curves suggested different gestational risk profiles for different locations, varying in both the duration and magnitude of gestational risk. Data from Northeast Brazil suggested a narrow window of risk during the first trimester, whereas data from Colombia suggested persistent risk throughout pregnancy. We then used the model to estimate which combination of behavioural and reporting changes would have been sufficient to explain the absence of a second microcephaly incidence wave in Bahia, Brazil; a population for which we had two years of data. We found that a 18.9-fold increase in ZIKV infection reporting rate was consistent with observed patterns.

Conclusions

Our study illustrates how surveillance data may be used in principle to answer key questions in the absence of directed epidemiological studies. However, in this case, we suggest that currently available surveillance data are insufficient to accurately estimate the gestational-age-varying risk of microcephaly from ZIKV infection. The methods used here may be of use in future outbreaks and may help to inform improved surveillance and interpretation in countries yet to experience an outbreak of ZIKV infection.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection is associated with the rise of microcephaly cases observed in Northeast Brazil at the end of 2015. For women in endemic or at-risk areas, understanding how the relationship between time of infection and microcephaly risk varies through pregnancy is important in informing family planning. However, a relatively modest number of congenital Zika syndrome cases have been observed following subsequent waves of ZIKV infection, limiting our understanding of gestational risk. We used a mathematical model to quantify the shape and magnitude of the gestational-age-varying risk to a fetus. Although the risk profile should be conserved regardless of location, we estimated different profiles when using surveillance data from locations in Northeast Brazil and Colombia. Our results suggest that time-dependent reporting changes likely confound the interpretation of currently available surveillance data. Furthermore, we investigated a range of behavioural and reporting rate changes that could explain two waves of ZIKV infection in Bahia, Brazil despite only one wave of microcephaly. Plausible changes in reporting could explain these data whilst remaining consistent with the hypothesis that ZIKV infection carries a significant risk of microcephaly. Further evidence is needed to disentangle the true risk of congenital Zika syndrome from time-varying reporting changes.

Zika virus: - a review of the main aspects of this type of arbovirosis

The objective of this study was to integrate findings related to Zika virus from the scientific literature. An integrative review of Medline was conducted, and data search was performed using the Health Sciences Descriptor Zika virus and the following filters: full texts available; studies in humans; full articles; and publications in Portuguese, French, English, and Spanish. After application of the filters, followed by reading of the titles, abstracts, and full texts, 44 studies were included in the review, for which content analysis was performed. A large part of the literature comprised review articles (84%; N=37); the majority was in English (95%, N=42). In 2016, 84% (N=37) of our sample articles was published, while in 2017, 16% (N=7) was published. The main form of viral transmission was thorough the mosquito Aedes aegypti (N=30). In addition, sexual transmission (N=09), transmission through blood transfusion (N=16), vertical transmission (N=21) and transmission from occupational activities (N=03) occurred. It was possible to diagnose the disease by testing blood (N=22), urine (N=14), saliva (N=06), semen/sperm (N=03), cerebrospinal and amniotic fluid, and other tissues (N=02). Symptomatology occurred in 1-5 people (N=10) between 3 and 7 days after a mosquito bite (N=09). Complications observed were Guillain Barré syndrome (N=27); neurological Zika syndrome (N=27); meningitis, meningoencephalitis, and myelitis (N=07); deaths and/or newborns (N=03). The review provides scientific evidence that contributes to the care, planning and implementation of public policies.

Unintended consequences and the paradox of control: Management of emerging pathogens with age-specific virulence

We project forward total Zika virus disease (ZVD) under varying hazards of infection and consider how the age distribution of disease burden varies between these scenarios. Pathogens with age structured disease outcomes, such as rubella and Zika virus, require that management decisions consider their impact not only on total disease incidence but also on distribution of disease burden within a population. Some situations exhibit a "paradox of control" in which reductions of overall transmission decrease the total incidence but increase the incidence of severe disease. This happens because of corresponding increases in the average age of infection. Beginning with the current population structure and demographic rates of Brazil, we project forward total ZVD burden as measured by cases occurring in pregnant women and document the scenarios under which a paradox of control for ZVD management emerges. We conclude that while a paradox of control can occur for ZVD, the higher total costs from increasing the average age of infection will only be realized after several decades and vanish under conservative discounting of future costs. This indicates that managers faced with an emerging pathogen are justified to prioritize current disease incidence over potential increases in severe disease outcomes in the endemic state.

Expected Duration of Adverse Pregnancy Outcomes after Zika Epidemic

Evidence is increasing that Zika virus-related adverse outcomes can occur throughout pregnancy. Mathematical modeling analysis using reported outcome data suggests that surveillance for these outcomes should begin as soon as an outbreak is detected and should continue for 40 weeks after the outbreak ends.