Natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats created a generalist virus and highly capable human pathogen

Mapping the Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Anticipate Emergence of Subvariants Resistant to COVID-19 Therapeutics

New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with mutations in the spike glycoprotein. In most cases, the sublineage-defining mutations vary between the VOCs. It is unclear whether these differences reflect lineage-specific likelihoods for mutations at each spike position or the stochastic nature of their appearance. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 lineages have distinct evolutionary spaces (a probabilistic definition of the sequence states that can be occupied by expanding virus subpopulations). This space can be accurately inferred from the patterns of amino acid variability at the whole-protein level. Robust networks of co-variable sites identify the highest-likelihood mutations in new VOC sublineages and predict remarkably well the emergence of subvariants with resistance mutations to COVID-19 therapeutics. Our studies reveal the contribution of low frequency variant patterns at heterologous sites across the protein to accurate prediction of the changes at each position of interest.

Finally neutralizing the threat? A novel SARS-CoV-2 vaccine platform that elicits enhanced neutralizing antibody responses

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak took the world by storm due to its rapid global spread and unpredictable disease outcomes. The extraordinary ascension of SARS-CoV-2 to pandemic status motivated a world-wide effort to rapidly develop vaccines that could effectively suppress virus spread and mitigate severe disease. These efforts culminated in the development and deployment of several highly effective vaccines that were heralded as the beginning-of-the-end of the pandemic. However, these successes were short lived due to the unexpected and continuous emergence of more transmissible and immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants. Thus, attention has shifted toward developing novel vaccine platforms that elicit more robust and sustained neutralizing antibody responses. Recent findings by Muñoz-Alía and colleagues address this by combining a live recombinant measles vaccine platform with novel biochemical approaches to generate vaccine candidates that bolster the potency of neutralizing antibody responses against diverse SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins (M. Á. Muñoz-Alía, R. A. Nace, B. Balakrishnan, L. Zhang, et al., mBio 9:e02928-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.02928-23).

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants: Genetic Impact on Viral Fitness

Over the last three years, the pandemic of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on people's lives and the global economy. The incessant emergence of variant strains has compounded the challenges associated with the management of COVID-19. As the predominant variant from late 2021 to the present, Omicron and its sublineages, through continuous evolution, have demonstrated iterative viral fitness. The comprehensive elucidation of the biological implications that catalyzed this evolution remains incomplete. In accordance with extant research evidence, we provide a comprehensive review of subvariants of Omicron, delineating alterations in immune evasion, cellular infectivity, and the cross-species transmission potential. This review seeks to clarify the underpinnings of biology within the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, thereby providing a foundation for strategic considerations in the post-pandemic era of COVID-19.

The most exposed regions of SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins are subject to strong positive selection and gene overlap may locally modify this behavior

The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic that emerged in 2019 has been an unprecedented event in international science, as it has been possible to sequence millions of genomes, tracking their evolution very closely. This has enabled various types of secondary analyses of these genomes, including the measurement of their sequence selection pressure. In this work, we have been able to measure the selective pressure of all the described SARS-CoV-2 genes, even analyzed by sequence regions, and we show how this type of analysis allows us to separate the genes between those subject to positive selection (usually those that code for surface proteins or those exposed to the host immune system) and those subject to negative selection because they require greater conservation of their structure and function. We have also seen that when another gene with an overlapping reading frame appears within a gene sequence, the overlapping sequence between the two genes evolves under a stronger purifying selection than the average of the non-overlapping regions of the main gene. We propose this type of analysis as a useful tool for locating and analyzing all the genes of a viral genome when an adequate number of sequences are available.IMPORTANCEWe have analyzed the selection pressure of all severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 genes by means of the nonsynonymous (Ka) to synonymous (Ks) substitution rate. We found that protein-coding genes are exposed to strong positive selection, especially in the regions of interaction with other molecules (host receptor and genome of the virus itself). However, overlapping coding regions are more protected and show negative selection. This suggests that this measure could be used to study viral gene function as well as overlapping genes.

Dinucleotide biases in RNA viruses that infect vertebrates or invertebrates

IMPORTANCE

Akin to a molecular signature, dinucleotide composition can be exploited by the zinc-finger antiviral protein (ZAP) to restrict CpG-rich (and UpA-rich) RNA viruses. ZAP evolved in tetrapods, and it is not encoded by invertebrates and fish. Because a systematic analysis is missing, we analyzed the genomes of RNA viruses that infect vertebrates or invertebrates. We show that vertebrate single-stranded (ss) RNA(+) viruses and, to a lesser extent, double-stranded RNA viruses tend to have stronger CpG bias than invertebrate viruses. Conversely, ssRNA(-) viruses have similar dinucleotide composition whether they infect vertebrates or invertebrates. Analysis of ssRNA(+) viruses that infect mammals, reptiles, and fish indicated that ZAP is unlikely to be a major driver of CpG depletion. We also show that, compared to other coronaviruses, the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is not homogeneously CpG-depleted. Our study provides new insights into virus evolution and strategies for recoding RNA virus genomes.

Fitness, growth and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants

The massive scale of the global SARS-CoV-2 sequencing effort created new opportunities and challenges for understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Rapid detection and assessment of new variants has become one of the principal objectives of genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. Because of the pace and scale of sequencing, new strategies have been developed for characterizing fitness and transmissibility of emerging variants. In this Review, I discuss a wide range of approaches that have been rapidly developed in response to the public health threat posed by emerging variants, ranging from new applications of classic population genetics models to contemporary synthesis of epidemiological models and phylodynamic analysis. Many of these approaches can be adapted to other pathogens and will have increasing relevance as large-scale pathogen sequencing becomes a regular feature of many public health systems.

Optimization and Deoptimization of Codons in SARS-CoV-2 and Related Implications for Vaccine Development

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has progressed into a global pandemic. To date, thousands of genetic variants have been identified among SARS-CoV-2 isolates collected from patients. Sequence analysis reveals that the codon adaptation index (CAI) values of viral sequences have decreased over time but with occasional fluctuations. Through evolution modeling, it is found that this phenomenon may result from the virus's mutation preference during transmission. Using dual-luciferase assays, it is further discovered that the deoptimization of codons in the viral sequence may weaken protein expression during virus evolution, indicating that codon usage may play an important role in virus fitness. Finally, given the importance of codon usage in protein expression and particularly for mRNA vaccines, it is designed several codon-optimized Omicron BA.2.12.1, BA.4/5, and XBB.1.5 spike mRNA vaccine candidates and experimentally validated their high levels of expression. This study highlights the importance of codon usage in virus evolution and provides guidelines for codon optimization in mRNA and DNA vaccine development.

Evolutionary Shortcuts via Multinucleotide Substitutions and Their Impact on Natural Selection Analyses

Inference and interpretation of evolutionary processes, in particular of the types and targets of natural selection affecting coding sequences, are critically influenced by the assumptions built into statistical models and tests. If certain aspects of the substitution process (even when they are not of direct interest) are presumed absent or are modeled with too crude of a simplification, estimates of key model parameters can become biased, often systematically, and lead to poor statistical performance. Previous work established that failing to accommodate multinucleotide (or multihit, MH) substitutions strongly biases dN/dS-based inference towards false-positive inferences of diversifying episodic selection, as does failing to model variation in the rate of synonymous substitution (SRV) among sites. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework and software tools to simultaneously incorporate these sources of evolutionary complexity into selection analyses. We found that both MH and SRV are ubiquitous in empirical alignments, and incorporating them has a strong effect on whether or not positive selection is detected (1.4-fold reduction) and on the distributions of inferred evolutionary rates. With simulation studies, we show that this effect is not attributable to reduced statistical power caused by using a more complex model. After a detailed examination of 21 benchmark alignments and a new high-resolution analysis showing which parts of the alignment provide support for positive selection, we show that MH substitutions occurring along shorter branches in the tree explain a significant fraction of discrepant results in selection detection. Our results add to the growing body of literature which examines decades-old modeling assumptions (including MH) and finds them to be problematic for comparative genomic data analysis. Because multinucleotide substitutions have a significant impact on natural selection detection even at the level of an entire gene, we recommend that selection analyses of this type consider their inclusion as a matter of routine. To facilitate this procedure, we developed, implemented, and benchmarked a simple and well-performing model testing selection detection framework able to screen an alignment for positive selection with two biologically important confounding processes: site-to-site synonymous rate variation, and multinucleotide instantaneous substitutions.

Does arbovirus emergence in humans require adaptation to domestic mosquitoes?

In the last few decades, several mosquito-borne arboviruses of zoonotic origin have established large-scale epidemic transmission cycles in the human population. It is often considered that arbovirus emergence is driven by adaptive evolution, such as virus adaptation for transmission by 'domestic' mosquito vector species that live in close association with humans. Here, I argue that although arbovirus adaptation to domestic mosquito vectors has been observed for several emerging arboviruses, it was generally not directly responsible for their initial emergence. Secondary adaptation to domestic mosquitoes often amplified epidemic transmission, however, this was more likely a consequence than a cause of arbovirus emergence. Considering that emerging arboviruses are generally 'preadapted' for transmission by domestic mosquito vectors may help to enhance preparedness toward future arbovirus emergence events.

Chikungunya virus glycoproteins transform macrophages into productive viral dissemination vessels

Despite their role as innate sentinels, macrophages are cellular reservoirs for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a highly pathogenic arthropod-borne alphavirus that has caused unprecedented epidemics worldwide. Here, we took interdisciplinary approaches to elucidate the CHIKV determinants that subvert macrophages into virion dissemination vessels. Through comparative infection using chimeric alphaviruses and evolutionary selection analyses, we discovered for the first time that CHIKV glycoproteins E2 and E1 coordinate efficient virion production in macrophages with the domains involved under positive selection. We performed proteomics on CHIKV-infected macrophages to identify cellular proteins interacting with the precursor and/or mature forms of viral glycoproteins. We uncovered two E1-binding proteins, signal peptidase complex subunit 3 (SPCS3) and eukaryotic translation initiation factor 3 (eIF3k), with novel inhibitory activities against CHIKV production. These results highlight how CHIKV E2 and E1 have been evolutionarily selected for viral dissemination likely through counteracting host restriction factors, making them attractive targets for therapeutic intervention.

Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

Immunosuppression as a Hub for SARS-CoV-2 Mutational Drift

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is largely determined by host factors, with a wide range of outcomes. Despite an extensive vaccination campaign and high rates of infection worldwide, the pandemic persists, adapting to overcome antiviral immunity acquired through prior exposure. The source of many such major adaptations is variants of concern (VOCs), novel SARS-CoV-2 variants produced by extraordinary evolutionary leaps whose origins remain mostly unknown. In this study, we tested the influence of factors on the evolutionary course of SARS-CoV-2. Electronic health records of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were paired to viral whole-genome sequences to assess the effects of host clinical parameters and immunity on the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2. We found slight, albeit significant, differences in SARS-CoV-2 intra-host diversity, which depended on host parameters such as vaccination status and smoking. Only one viral genome had significant alterations as a result of host parameters; it was found in an immunocompromised, chronically infected woman in her 70s. We highlight the unusual viral genome obtained from this woman, which had an accelerated mutational rate and an excess of rare mutations, including near-complete truncating of the accessory protein ORF3a. Our findings suggest that the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection is limited and mostly unaffected by host characteristics. Significant viral evolution is seemingly exclusive to a small subset of COVID-19 cases, which typically prolong infections in immunocompromised patients. In these rare cases, SARS-CoV-2 genomes accumulate many impactful and potentially adaptive mutations; however, the transmissibility of such viruses remains unclear.

Replication in the presence of dengue convalescent serum impacts Zika virus neutralization sensitivity and fitness

Introduction

Flaviviruses like dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are mosquito-borne viruses that cause febrile, hemorrhagic, and neurological diseases in humans, resulting in 400 million infections annually. Due to their co-circulation in many parts of the world, flaviviruses must replicate in the presence of pre-existing adaptive immune responses targeted at serologically closely related pathogens, which can provide protection or enhance disease. However, the impact of pre-existing cross-reactive immunity as a driver of flavivirus evolution, and subsequently the implications on the emergence of immune escape variants, is poorly understood. Therefore, we investigated how replication in the presence of convalescent dengue serum drives ZIKV evolution.

Methods

We used an in vitro directed evolution system, passaging ZIKV in the presence of serum from humans previously infected with DENV (anti-DENV) or serum from DENV-naïve patients (control serum). Following five passages in the presence of serum, we performed next-generation sequencing to identify mutations that arose during passaging. We studied two non-synonymous mutations found in the anti-DENV passaged population (E-V355I and NS1-T139A) by generating individual ZIKV mutants and assessing fitness in mammalian cells and live mosquitoes, as well as their sensitivity to antibody neutralization.

Results and discussion

Both viruses had increased fitness in Vero cells with and without the addition of anti-DENV serum and in human lung epithelial and monocyte cells. In Aedes aegypti mosquitoes—using blood meals with and without anti-DENV serum—the mutant viruses had significantly reduced fitness compared to wild-type ZIKV. These results align with the trade-off hypothesis of constrained mosquito-borne virus evolution. Notably, only the NS1-T139A mutation escaped neutralization, while E-V335I demonstrated enhanced neutralization sensitivity to neutralization by anti-DENV serum, indicating that neutralization escape is not necessary for viruses passaged under cross-reactive immune pressures. Future studies are needed to assess cross-reactive immune selection in humans and relevant animal models or with different flaviviruses.

Variation in synonymous evolutionary rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Influential variants and mutants of this virus continue to emerge, and more effective virus-related information is urgently required for identifying and predicting new mutants. According to earlier reports, synonymous substitutions were considered phenotypically silent; thus, such mutations were frequently ignored in studies of viral mutations because they did not directly cause amino acid changes. However, recent studies have shown that synonymous substitutions are not completely silent, and their patterns and potential functional correlations should thus be delineated for better control of the pandemic.

Methods

In this study, we estimated the synonymous evolutionary rate (SER) across the SARS-CoV-2 genome and used it to infer the relationship between the viral RNA and host protein. We also assessed the patterns of characteristic mutations found in different viral lineages.

Results

We found that the SER varies across the genome and that the variation is primarily influenced by codon-related factors. Moreover, the conserved motifs identified based on the SER were found to be related to host RNA transport and regulation. Importantly, the majority of the existing fixed-characteristic mutations for five important virus lineages (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron) were significantly enriched in partially constrained regions.

Discussion

Taken together, our results provide unique information on the evolutionary and functional dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 based on synonymous mutations and offer potentially useful information for better control of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Rooting and Dating Large SARS-CoV-2 Trees by Modeling Evolutionary Rate as a Function of Time

Almost all published rooting and dating studies on SARS-CoV-2 assumed that (1) evolutionary rate does not change over time although different lineages can have different evolutionary rates (uncorrelated relaxed clock), and (2) a zoonotic transmission occurred in Wuhan and the culprit was immediately captured, so that only the SARS-CoV-2 genomes obtained in 2019 and the first few months of 2020 (resulting from the first wave of the global expansion from Wuhan) are sufficient for dating the common ancestor. Empirical data contradict the first assumption. The second assumption is not warranted because mounting evidence suggests the presence of early SARS-CoV-2 lineages cocirculating with the Wuhan strains. Large trees with SARS-CoV-2 genomes beyond the first few months are needed to increase the likelihood of finding SARS-CoV-2 lineages that might have originated at the same time as (or even before) those early Wuhan strains. I extended a previously published rapid rooting method to model evolutionary rate as a linear function instead of a constant. This substantially improves the dating of the common ancestor of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Based on two large trees with 83,688 and 970,777 high-quality and full-length SARS-CoV-2 genomes that contain complete sample collection dates, the common ancestor was dated to 12 June 2019 and 7 July 2019 with the two trees, respectively. The two data sets would give dramatically different or even absurd estimates if the rate was treated as a constant. The large trees were also crucial for overcoming the high rate-heterogeneity among different viral lineages. The improved method was implemented in the software TRAD.

Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors.

Methods

Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted.

Findings

Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000 kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance.

Interpretation

Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures.

Funding

NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).

SARS-CoV-2 variant biology: immune escape, transmission and fitness

In late 2020, after circulating for almost a year in the human population, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibited a major step change in its adaptation to humans. These highly mutated forms of SARS-CoV-2 had enhanced rates of transmission relative to previous variants and were termed 'variants of concern' (VOCs). Designated Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron, the VOCs emerged independently from one another, and in turn each rapidly became dominant, regionally or globally, outcompeting previous variants. The success of each VOC relative to the previously dominant variant was enabled by altered intrinsic functional properties of the virus and, to various degrees, changes to virus antigenicity conferring the ability to evade a primed immune response. The increased virus fitness associated with VOCs is the result of a complex interplay of virus biology in the context of changing human immunity due to both vaccination and prior infection. In this Review, we summarize the literature on the relative transmissibility and antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variants, the role of mutations at the furin spike cleavage site and of non-spike proteins, the potential importance of recombination to virus success, and SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the context of T cells, innate immunity and population immunity. SARS-CoV-2 shows a complicated relationship among virus antigenicity, transmission and virulence, which has unpredictable implications for the future trajectory and disease burden of COVID-19.

Detecting punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-2 over the first year of the pandemic

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved slowly over the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic with differential mutation rates across lineages. Here, we explore how this variation arose. Whether evolutionary change accumulated gradually within lineages or during viral lineage branching is unclear. Using phylogenetic regression models, we show that ~13% of SARS-CoV-2 genomic divergence up to May 2020 is attributable to lineage branching events (punctuated evolution). The net number of branching events along lineages predicts ~5% of the deviation from the strict molecular clock. We did not detect punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-1, possibly due to the small sample size, and in sarbecovirus broadly, likely due to a different evolutionary process altogether. Punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 is probably neutral because most mutations were not positively selected and because the strength of the punctuational effect remained constant over time, at least until May 2020, and across continents. However, the small punctuational contribution to SARS-CoV-2 diversity is consistent with the founder effect arising from narrow transmission bottlenecks. Therefore, punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 may represent the macroevolutionary consequence (rate variation) of a microevolutionary process (transmission bottleneck).

Dissecting Phenotype from Genotype with Clinical Isolates of SARS-CoV-2 First Wave Variants

The emergence and availability of closely related clinical isolates of SARS-CoV-2 offers a unique opportunity to identify novel nonsynonymous mutations that may impact phenotype. Global sequencing efforts show that SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged and then been replaced since the beginning of the pandemic, yet we have limited information regarding the breadth of variant-specific host responses. Using primary cell cultures and the K18-hACE2 mouse, we investigated the replication, innate immune response, and pathology of closely related, clinical variants circulating during the first wave of the pandemic. Mathematical modeling of the lung viral replication of four clinical isolates showed a dichotomy between two B.1. isolates with significantly faster and slower infected cell clearance rates, respectively. While isolates induced several common immune host responses to infection, one B.1 isolate was unique in the promotion of eosinophil-associated proteins IL-5 and CCL11. Moreover, its mortality rate was significantly slower. Lung microscopic histopathology suggested further phenotypic divergence among the five isolates showing three distinct sets of phenotypes: (i) consolidation, alveolar hemorrhage, and inflammation, (ii) interstitial inflammation/septal thickening and peribronchiolar/perivascular lymphoid cells, and (iii) consolidation, alveolar involvement, and endothelial hypertrophy/margination. Together these findings show divergence in the phenotypic outcomes of these clinical isolates and reveal the potential importance of nonsynonymous mutations in nsp2 and ORF8.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) may serve as a wildlife reservoir for nearly extinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

The spillover of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from humans to white-tailed deer (WTD) and its ability to transmit from deer to deer raised concerns about the role of WTD in the epidemiology and ecology of the virus. Here, we present a comprehensive cross-sectional study assessing the prevalence, genetic diversity, and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in WTD in the State of New York (NY). A total of 5,462 retropharyngeal lymph node samples collected from free-ranging hunter-harvested WTD during the hunting seasons of 2020 (Season 1, September to December 2020, n = 2,700) and 2021 (Season 2, September to December 2021, n = 2,762) were tested by SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 17 samples (0.6%) from Season 1 and in 583 samples (21.1%) from Season 2. Hotspots of infection were identified in multiple confined geographic areas of NY. Sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 164 samples demonstrated the presence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the cocirculation of three major variants of concern (VOCs) (Alpha, Gamma, and Delta) in WTD. Our analysis suggests the occurrence of multiple spillover events (human to deer) of the Alpha and Delta lineages with subsequent deer-to-deer transmission and adaptation of the viruses. Detection of Alpha and Gamma variants in WTD long after their broad circulation in humans in NY suggests that WTD may serve as a wildlife reservoir for VOCs no longer circulating in humans. Thus, implementation of continuous surveillance programs to monitor SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in WTD is warranted, and measures to minimize virus transmission between humans and animals are urgently needed.

Identification of evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

Molecular determinants associated with temporal succession of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Uttar Pradesh, India

The emergence and rapid evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global crisis that required a detailed characterization of the dynamics of mutational pattern of the viral genome for comprehending its epidemiology, pathogenesis and containment. We investigated the molecular evolution of the SASR-CoV-2 genome during the first, second and third waves of COVID-19 in Uttar Pradesh, India. Nanopore sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 genome was undertaken in 544 confirmed cases of COVID-19, which included vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. In the first wave (unvaccinated population), the 20A clade (56.32%) was superior that was replaced by 21A Delta in the second wave, which was more often seen in vaccinated individuals in comparison to unvaccinated (75.84% versus 16.17%, respectively). Subsequently, 21A delta got outcompeted by Omicron (71.8%), especially the 21L variant, in the third wave. We noticed that Q677H appeared in 20A Alpha and stayed up to Delta, D614G appeared in 20A Alpha and stayed in Delta and Omicron variants (got fixed), and several other mutations appeared in Delta and stayed in Omicron. A cross-sectional analysis of the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals during the second wave revealed signature combinations of E156G, F157Del, L452R, T478K, D614G mutations in the Spike protein that might have facilitated vaccination breach in India. Interestingly, some of these mutation combinations were carried forward from Delta to Omicron. In silico protein docking showed that Omicron had a higher binding affinity with the host ACE2 receptor, resulting in enhanced infectivity of Omicron over the Delta variant. This work has identified the combinations of key mutations causing vaccination breach in India and provided insights into the change of [virus's] binding affinity with evolution, resulting in more virulence in Delta and more infectivity in Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings will help in understanding the COVID-19 disease biology and guide further surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 genome to facilitate the development of vaccines with better efficacies.

Diversity of viral communities in faecal samples of farmed red foxes

Emerging and existing viruses from various human and animal samples have been studied and analyzed using viral metagenomics, which has proven to be an effective technique. Foxes, as a kind of significant economic animal, are widely raised in China. Viruses carried by foxes may potentially infect humans or other animals. There are currently very few studies of faecal virome in farmed foxes. Using viral metagenomics, we evaluated the faecal virome of twenty-four foxes collected from the same farm in Jilin Province, China. Some sequences more closely related to the families Parvoviridae, Picornaviridae, Smacoviridae, Anelloviridae, and Herpesviridae were detected in the faecal sample. The main animal viruses that infect farmed red foxes were parvovirus and picornavirus. Five smacovirus strains were found and provided evidence for genetic diversity in the genus Smacoviridae. In addition, some viruses infecting avian species or rats were detected in this study. The study helped us better understand faecal virome in farmed red foxes and assisted in the surveillance and prevention of viral diseases in these animals.

Coordinated evolution at amino acid sites of SARS-CoV-2 spike

SARS-CoV-2 has adapted in a stepwise manner, with multiple beneficial mutations accumulating in a rapid succession at origins of VOCs, and the reasons for this are unclear. Here, we searched for coordinated evolution of amino acid sites in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we searched for concordantly evolving site pairs (CSPs) for which changes at one site were rapidly followed by changes at the other site in the same lineage. We detected 46 sites which formed 45 CSP. Sites in CSP were closer to each other in the protein structure than random pairs, indicating that concordant evolution has a functional basis. Notably, site pairs carrying lineage defining mutations of the four VOCs that circulated before May 2021 are enriched in CSPs. For the Alpha VOC, the enrichment is detected even if Alpha sequences are removed from analysis, indicating that VOC origin could have been facilitated by positive epistasis. Additionally, we detected nine discordantly evolving pairs of sites where mutations at one site unexpectedly rarely occurred on the background of a specific allele at another site, for example on the background of wild-type D at site 614 (four pairs) or derived Y at site 501 (three pairs). Our findings hint that positive epistasis between accumulating mutations could have delayed the assembly of advantageous combinations of mutations comprising at least some of the VOCs.

Genome Structure, Life Cycle, and Taxonomy of Coronaviruses and the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Coronaviruses have a broad host range and exhibit high zoonotic potential. In this chapter, we describe their genomic organization in terms of encoded proteins and provide an introduction to the peculiar discontinuous transcription mechanism. Further, we present evolutionary conserved genomic RNA secondary structure features, which are involved in the complex replication mechanism. With a focus on computational methods, we review the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 starting with the 2019 strains. In that context, we also discuss the debated hypothesis of whether SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory. We focus on the molecular evolution and the epidemiological dynamics of this recently emerged pathogen and we explain how variants of concern are detected and characterised. COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, can spread through different transmission routes and also depends on a number of risk factors. We describe how current computational models of viral epidemiology, or more specifically, phylodynamics, have facilitated and will continue to enable a better understanding of the epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Investigation of the Virome and Characterization of Issyk-Kul Virus from Swedish Myotis brandtii Bats

Bats are reservoirs for many different viruses, including some that can be transmitted to and cause disease in humans and/or animals. However, less is known about the bat-borne viruses circulating in Northern European countries such as in Sweden. In this study, saliva from Myotis brandtii bats, collected from south-central Sweden, was analyzed for viruses. The metagenomic analysis identified viral sequences belonging to different viral families, including, e.g., Nairoviridae, Retroviridae, Poxviridae, Herpesviridae and Siphoviridae. Interestingly, through the data analysis, the near-complete genome of Issyk-Kul virus (ISKV), a zoonotic virus within the Nairoviridae family, was obtained, showing 95-99% protein sequence identity to previously described ISKVs. This virus is believed to infect humans via an intermediate tick host or through contact with bat excrete. ISKV has previously been found in bats in Europe, but not previously in the Nordic region. In addition, near full-length genomes of two novel viruses belonging to Picornavirales order and Tymoviridae family were characterized. Taken together, our study has not only identified novel viruses, but also the presence of a zoonotic virus not previously known to circulate in this region. Thus, the results from these types of studies can help us to better understand the diversity of viruses circulating in bat populations, as well as identify viruses with zoonotic potential that could possibly be transmitted to humans.

A Glimpse on the Evolution of RNA Viruses: Implications and Lessons from SARS-CoV-2

RNA viruses are characterised by extremely high genetic variability due to fast replication, large population size, low fidelity, and (usually) a lack of proofreading mechanisms of RNA polymerases leading to high mutation rates. Furthermore, viral recombination and reassortment may act as a significant evolutionary force among viruses contributing to greater genetic diversity than obtainable by mutation alone. The above-mentioned properties allow for the rapid evolution of RNA viruses, which may result in difficulties in viral eradication, changes in virulence and pathogenicity, and lead to events such as cross-species transmissions, which are matters of great interest in the light of current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemics. In this review, we aim to explore the molecular mechanisms of the variability of viral RNA genomes, emphasising the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. Furthermore, the causes and consequences of coronavirus variation are explored, along with theories on the origin of human coronaviruses and features of emergent RNA viruses in general. Finally, we summarise the current knowledge on the circulating variants of concern and highlight the many unknowns regarding SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis.

An updated review of the scientific literature on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

More than two and a half years have already passed since the first case of COVID-19 was officially reported (December 2019), as well as more than two years since the WHO declared the current pandemic (March 2020). During these months, the advances on the knowledge of the COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible of the infection, have been very significant. However, there are still some weak points on that knowledge, being the origin of SARS-CoV-2 one of the most notorious. One year ago, I published a review focused on what we knew and what we need to know about the origin of that coronavirus, a key point for the prevention of potential future pandemics of a similar nature. The analysis of the available publications until July 2021 did not allow drawing definitive conclusions on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Given the great importance of that issue, the present review was aimed at updating the scientific information on that origin. Unfortunately, there have not been significant advances on that topic, remaining basically the same two hypotheses on it. One of them is the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, while the second one is the possible leak of this coronavirus from a laboratory. Most recent papers do not include observational or experimental studies, being discussions and positions on these two main hypotheses. Based on the information here reviewed, there is not yet a definitive and well demonstrated conclusion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from patients with morbilliform eruptions since late 2019 in Lombardy, northern Italy

As a reference laboratory for measles and rubella surveillance in Lombardy, we evaluated the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and measles-like syndromes, providing preliminary evidence for undetected early circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 435 samples from 156 cases were investigated. RNA from oropharyngeal swabs (N = 148) and urine (N = 141) was screened with four hemi-nested PCRs and molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 infection was found in 13 subjects. Two of the positive patients were from the pandemic period (2/12, 16.7%, March 2020-March 2021) and 11 were from the pre-pandemic period (11/44, 25%, August 2019-February 2020). Sera (N = 146) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, IgM, and IgA antibodies. Five of the RNA-positive individuals also had detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. No strong evidence of infection was found in samples collected between August 2018 and July 2019 from 100 patients. The earliest sample with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was from September 12, 2019, and the positive patient was also positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgG and IgM). Mutations typical of B.1 strains previously reported to have emerged in January 2020 (C3037T, C14408T, and A23403G), were identified in samples collected as early as October 2019 in Lombardy. One of these mutations (C14408T) was also identified among sequences downloaded from public databases that were obtained by others from samples collected in Brazil in November 2019. We conclude that a SARS-CoV-2 progenitor capable of producing a measles-like syndrome may have emerged in late June-late July 2019 and that viruses with mutations characterizing B.1 strain may have been spreading globally before the first Wuhan outbreak. Our findings should be complemented by high-throughput sequencing to obtain additional sequence information. We highlight the importance of retrospective surveillance studies in understanding the early dynamics of COVID-19 spread and we encourage other groups to perform retrospective investigations to seek confirmatory proofs of early SARS-CoV-2 circulation.

Risk assessment and preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 amongst bushmeat handlers in Nigerian wildlife markets: Drivers and One Health challenge

Over 70% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic and 72% of them have wildlife reservoirs with consequent global health impacts. Both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 emerged certainly through wildlife market routes. We assessed wildlife handlers' zoonotic risk perceptions and preventive health behaviour measures toward COVID-19 during pandemic waves, and its drivers at wildlife markets using Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs. A cross-sectional study was conducted at purposively selected wildlife markets in Nigeria between November 2020 and October 2021. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariable logistic regressions analyses were performed at 95% confidence interval. Of the 600 targeted handlers in 97 wildlife markets, 97.2% (n = 583) participated. Consumers were the majority (65.3%), followed by hunters (18.4) and vendors (16.3%). Only 10.3% hunters, 24.3% vendors and 21.0% consumers associated COVID-19 with high zoonotic risk. Also, only few handlers practiced social/physical distancing at markets. Avoidance of handshaking or hugging and vaccination was significantly (p = 0.001) practiced by few handlers as preventive health behaviours at the markets. All the socio-demographic variables were significantly (p<0.05) associated with their knowledge, risk perceptions, and practice of preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 at univariate analysis. Poor markets sanitation, hygiene, and biosecurity (OR=3.35, 95% CI: 2.33, 4.82); and poor butchering practices and exchange of wildlife species between shops [(OR=1.87; 95% CI: 1.34, 2.60) and (OR=2.03; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.88), respectively] were more likely to significantly influence COVID-19 emergence and spread at the markets. To tackle the highlighted gaps, collaborations between the public health, anthropologists, and veterinary and wildlife authorities through the One Health approach are advocated to intensify awareness and health education programmes that will improve perceptions and behaviours toward the disease and other emerging diseases control and prevention.

Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Beta and Delta Variants of Concern Uncovers Signatures of Neutral and Non-Neutral Evolution

Due to the emergence of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the question of how the viral genomes evolved, leading to the formation of highly infectious strains, becomes particularly important. Three major emergent strains, Alpha, Beta and Delta, characterized by a significant number of missense mutations, provide a natural test field. We accumulated and aligned 4.7 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the GISAID database and carried out a comprehensive set of analyses. This collection covers the period until the end of October 2021, i.e., the beginnings of the Omicron variant. First, we explored combinatorial complexity of the genomic variants emerging and their timing, indicating very strong, albeit hidden, selection forces. Our analyses show that the mutations that define variants of concern did not arise gradually but rather co-evolved rapidly, leading to the emergence of the full variant strain. To explore in more detail the evolutionary forces at work, we developed time trajectories of mutations at all 29,903 sites of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, week by week, and stratified them into trends related to (i) point substitutions, (ii) deletions and (iii) non-sequenceable regions. We focused on classifying the genetic forces active at different ranges of the mutational spectrum. We observed the agreement of the lowest-frequency mutation spectrum with the Griffiths-Tavaré theory, under the Infinite Sites Model and neutrality. If we widen the frequency range, we observe the site frequency spectra much more consistently with the Tung-Durrett model assuming clone competition and selection. The coefficients of the fitting model indicate the possibility of selection acting to promote gradual growth slowdown, as observed in the history of the variants of concern. These results add up to a model of genomic evolution, which partly fits into the classical drift barrier ideas. Certain observations, such as mutation "bands" persistent over the epidemic history, suggest contribution of genetic forces different from mutation, drift and selection, including recombination or other genome transformations. In addition, we show that a "toy" mathematical model can qualitatively reproduce how new variants (clones) stem from rare advantageous driver mutations, and then acquire neutral or disadvantageous passenger mutations which gradually reduce their fitness so they can be then outcompeted by new variants due to other driver mutations.

Evolutionary remodelling of N-terminal domain loops fine-tunes SARS-CoV-2 spike

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has exacerbated the COVID-19 global health crisis. Thus far, all variants carry mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which is a critical determinant of viral transmission being responsible for attachment, receptor engagement and membrane fusion, and an important target of immunity. Variants frequently bear truncations of flexible loops in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of spike; the functional importance of these modifications has remained poorly characterised. We demonstrate that NTD deletions are important for efficient entry by the Alpha and Omicron variants and that this correlates with spike stability. Phylogenetic analysis reveals extensive NTD loop length polymorphisms across the sarbecoviruses, setting an evolutionary precedent for loop remodelling. Guided by these analyses, we demonstrate that variations in NTD loop length, alone, are sufficient to modulate virus entry. We propose that variations in NTD loop length act to fine-tune spike; this may provide a mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 to navigate a complex selection landscape encompassing optimisation of essential functionality, immune-driven antigenic variation and ongoing adaptation to a new host.

Phylodynamics of a regional SARS-CoV-2 rapid spreading event in Colorado in late 2020

Since the initial reported discovery of SARS-CoV-2 in late 2019, genomic surveillance has been an important tool to understand its transmission and evolution. Here, we sought to describe the underlying regional phylodynamics before and during a rapid spreading event that was documented by surveillance protocols of the United States Air Force Academy (USAFA) in late October-November of 2020. We used replicate long-read sequencing on Colorado SARS-CoV-2 genomes collected July through November 2020 at the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical campus in Aurora and the United States Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs. Replicate sequencing allowed rigorous validation of variation and placement in a phylogenetic relatedness network. We focus on describing the phylodynamics of a lineage that likely originated in the local Colorado Springs community and expanded rapidly over the course of two months in an outbreak within the well-controlled environment of the United States Air Force Academy. Divergence estimates from sampling dates indicate that the SARS-CoV-2 lineage associated with this rapid expansion event originated in late October 2020. These results are in agreement with transmission pathways inferred by the United States Air Force Academy, and provide a window into the evolutionary process and transmission dynamics of a potentially dangerous but ultimately contained variant.

SARS-COV-2/COVID-19: scenario, epidemiology, adaptive mutations, and environmental factors

The coronavirus pandemic of 2019 has already exerted an enormous impact. For over a year, the worldwide pandemic has ravaged the whole globe, with approximately 250 million verified human infection cases and a mortality rate surpassing 4 million. While the genetic makeup of the related pathogen (SARS-CoV-2) was identified, many unknown facets remain a mystery, comprising the virus's origin and evolutionary trend. There were many rumors that SARS-CoV-2 was human-borne and its evolution was predicted many years ago, but scientific investigation proved them wrong and concluded that bats might be the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and pangolins act as intermediary species to transmit the virus from bats to humans. Airborne droplets were found to be the leading cause of human-to-human transmission of this virus, but later studies showed that contaminated surfaces and other environmental factors are also involved in its transmission. The evolution of different SARS-CoV-2 variants worsens the condition and has become a challenge to overcome this pandemic. The emergence of COVID-19 is still a mystery, and scientists are unable to explain the exact origin of SARS-CoV-2. This review sheds light on the possible origin of SARS-CoV-2, its transmission, and the key factors that worsen the situation.

Role and Limits of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Delicate Transition from Pandemic Mitigation to Endemic Control

The recent surge of COVID-19 related to the Omicron variant emergence has thrown a harsh light upon epidemic control in the near future. This should lead the scientific and medical community to question the long-term vaccine strategy for SARS-CoV-2 control. We provide here a critical point of view regarding the virological evolution, epidemiological aspects, and immunological drivers for COVID-19 control, including a vaccination strategy. Overall, we need more innovations in vaccine development to reduce the COVID-19 burden long term. The most adequate answer might be better cooperation between universities, biotech and pharmaceutical companies

Radu E, Matei L, Maria Ruta S, Bleotu C. SARS-CoV-2 Variant Surveillance in Genomic Medicine Era

In the genomic medicine era, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 was immediately followed by viral genome sequencing and world-wide sequences sharing. Almost in real-time, based on these sequences, resources were developed and applied around the world, such as molecular diagnostic tests, informed public health decisions, and vaccines. Molecular SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance was a normal approach in this context yet, considering that the viral genome modification occurs commonly in viral replication process, the challenge is to identify the modifications that significantly affect virulence, transmissibility, reduced effectiveness of vaccines and therapeutics or failure of diagnostic tests. However, assessing the importance of the emergence of new mutations and linking them to epidemiological trend, is still a laborious process and faster phenotypic evaluation approaches, in conjunction with genomic data, are required in order to release timely and efficient control measures.

The Genetic Characterization of the First Detected Bat Coronaviruses in Poland Revealed SARS-Related Types and Alphacoronaviruses

Bats are a major global reservoir of alphacoronaviruses (alphaCoVs) and betaCoVs. Attempts to discover the causative agents of COVID-19 and SARS have revealed horseshoe bats (Rhinolophidae) to be the most probable source of the virus. We report the first detection of bat coronaviruses (BtCoVs) in insectivorous bats in Poland and highlight SARS-related coronaviruses found in Rhinolophidae bats. The study included 503 (397 oral swabs and 106 fecal) samples collected from 20 bat species. Genetically diverse BtCoVs (n = 20) of the Alpha- and Betacoronavirus genera were found in fecal samples of two bat species. SARS-related CoVs were in 18 out of 58 lesser horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus hipposideros) samples (31%, 95% CI 20.6–43.8), and alphaCoVs were in 2 out of 55 Daubenton’s bat (Myotis daubentonii) samples (3.6%, 95% CI 0.6–12.3). The overall BtCoV prevalence was 4.0% (95% CI 2.6–6.1). High identity was determined for BtCoVs isolated from European M. daubentonii and R. hipposideros bats. The detection of SARS-related and alphaCoVs in Polish bats with high phylogenetic relatedness to reference BtCoVs isolated in different European countries but from the same species confirms their high host restriction. Our data elucidate the molecular epidemiology, prevalence, and geographic distribution of coronaviruses and particularly SARS-related types in the bat population.

SARS-CoV-2 origins: zoonotic Rhinolophus vs contemporary models

The question of the origin of coronavirus spread like wildfire ever since it wreaked havoc among humankind, and ever since the scientific community has worked tirelessly to trace the history of the virus. In this review, we have tried to compile relevant literature pertaining to the different theories of origin of SARS-CoV-2, hopefully without any bias, and we strongly support the zoonotic origin of the infamous SARS-CoV-2 in bats and its transfer to human beings through the most probable evolutionary hosts, pangolins and minks. We also support the contemporary 'Circulation Model' that simply mirrors the concept of evolution to explain the origin of the virus which, the authors believe, is the most rational school of thought. The most recent variant of SARS-CoV-2, Omicron, has been taken as an example to clarify the concept. We recommend the community to refer to this model for further understanding and delving deep into this mystery of the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Contrasting patterns in the early stage of SARS-CoV-2 evolution between humans and minks

One of the unique features of SARS-CoV-2 is its apparent neutral evolution during the early pandemic (before February 2020). This contrasts with the preceding SARS-CoV epidemics, where viruses evolved adaptively. SARS-CoV-2 may exhibit a unique or adaptive feature which deviates from other coronaviruses. Alternatively, the virus may have been cryptically circulating in humans for a sufficient time to have acquired adaptive changes before the onset of the current pandemic. To test the scenarios above, we analyzed the SARS-CoV-2 sequences from minks (Neovision vision) and parental humans. In the early phase of the mink epidemic (April to May 2020), nonsynonymous to synonymous mutation ratio per site in the spike protein is 2.93, indicating a selection process favoring adaptive amino acid changes. Mutations in the spike protein were concentrated within its receptor binding domain and receptor binding motif. An excess of high frequency derived variants produced by genetic hitchhiking was found during the middle (June to July 2020) and late phase I (August to September 2020) of the mink epidemic. In contrast, the site frequency spectra of early SARS-CoV-2 in humans only show an excess of low frequency mutations, consistent with the recent outbreak of the virus. Strong positive selection in the mink SARS-CoV-2 implies the virus may not be pre-adapted to a wide range of hosts and illustrates how a virus evolves to establish a continuous infection in a new host. Therefore, the lack of positive selection signal during the early pandemic in humans deserves further investigation.

Structural aspects of SARS-CoV-2 mutations: Implications to plausible infectivity with ACE-2 using computational modeling approach

Some of the SARS-CoV-2 variants are said to be more infectious than the previous others and are causing panic around the globe. Cases related to Delta plus (δ+) and omicron (ο) variants are on the rise worldwide. This sudden surge warrants an investigation into the reasons for its binding with ACE-2. The present study attempts to find out the structural basis of binding interactions of SARS-CoV-2 mutants based on computational modeling and comparative analysis. In silico strategies including protein-protein docking, mutation analysis, molecular dynamics, and binding energy calculations were used to study the binding of the 'receptor binding domain' (RBD) of the seven 'variants of concern' which include Alpha (α), Beta (β), Gamma (γ), Kappa (κ), Delta (δ), Delta plus (δ+) and omicron (ο) with ACE-2 (human angiotensin-converting enzyme-2) and with antibodies. Among all the variants dealt with in this study, Delta plus and omicron were found to be binding more strongly to ACE-2 than others due to inherent mutations and the consequent change in the hydrophilic and hydrophobic environment of the binding site. Furthermore, molecular dynamic (MD) simulations and subsequent MM/PBSA calculations provided useful structural insights into key residues participating in the interaction. Infectivity of a virus could be dependent on the interplay of evading antibodies and simultaneously attaching strongly with the host receptor. A cross-correlation between mutant spike proteins' binding with ACE-2 and antibodies provides a holistic assessment of the binding nature of these mutants vis-à-vis native virus and offers opportunities for designing potential therapeutics against these new mutants.

The structural role of SARS-CoV-2 genetic background in the emergence and success of spike mutations: The case of the spike A222V mutation

The S:A222V point mutation, within the G clade, was characteristic of the 20E (EU1) SARS-CoV-2 variant identified in Spain in early summer 2020. This mutation has since reappeared in the Delta subvariant AY.4.2, raising questions about its specific effect on viral infection. We report combined serological, functional, structural and computational studies characterizing the impact of this mutation. Our results reveal that S:A222V promotes an increased RBD opening and slightly increases ACE2 binding as compared to the parent S:D614G clade. Finally, S:A222V does not reduce sera neutralization capacity, suggesting it does not affect vaccine effectiveness.

Since early 2020, the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic has mostly been shaped by the appearance of novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Accordingly, much of the scientific effort has been directed toward the question of explaining, understanding, and predicting the evolutionary fate of individual mutations in the viral genome. In this article, we focus on A222V, a particular mutation in the Spike protein that emerged in Spain in mid-2020 and reappeared independently in the AY.4.2 subvariant of Delta one year later. As reemerging mutations often indicate an evolutionary advantage, we explored potential mechanisms linking A222V to biologically relevant outcomes. Using serological, functional, structural, and computational approaches, we identified key molecular-level differences conferred by A222V that potentially explain its repeated emergence in different genetic backgrounds. Our results point to subtle changes in the dynamic behavior of the receptor-binding domain in the binding-competent "up" conformation, ones that affect receptor binding itself, but can also act synergistically with other mutations by changing the accessibility of key residues involved in molecular recognition.

Evidence for yeast artificial synthesis in SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 genomic sequences

Background: Knowledge about the origin of SARS-CoV-2 is necessary for both a biological and epidemiological understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence suggests that a proximal evolutionary ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the bat coronavirus family. However, as further evidence for a direct zoonosis remains limited, alternative modes of SARS-CoV-2 biogenesis should also be considered.    Results: Here we show that the genomes of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 significantly diverge from other SARS-like coronaviruses through short chromosomal sequences from the yeast S. cerevisiae at focal positions that are known to be critical for host cell invasion, virus replication, and host immune response. For SARS-CoV-1, we identify two sites: one at the start of the RNA dependent RNA polymerase gene, and the other at the start of the spike protein’s receptor binding domain; for SARS-CoV-2, one at the start of the viral replicase domain, and the other toward the end of the spike gene past its domain junction. At this junction, we detect a highly specific stretch of yeast origin covering the critical furin cleavage site insert PRRA, which has not been seen in other lineage b betacoronaviruses. As yeast is not a natural host for this virus family, we propose an artificial synthesis model for viral constructs in yeast cells based on co-transformation of virus DNA plasmids carrying yeast selectable genetic markers followed by intra-chromosomal homologous recombination through gene conversion. Highly differential yeast sequence patterns congruent with chromosomes harboring specific auxotrophic markers further support yeast artificial synthesis. Conclusions: These results provide evidence that the genomes of SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 contain sequence information that points to their artificial synthesis in genetically modified yeast cells. Our data specifically allow the identification of the yeast S. cerevisiae as a potential recombination donor for the critical furin cleavage site in SARS-CoV-2.

The Impact of the Highly Virulent SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant on Young Adults in the State of São Paulo: Was It Inevitable?

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had and is still having a tremendous impact on people all over the world, but it has been particularly harsh in South America. Nine out of 13 South American countries are among the 50 countries with the highest COVID-19 death rates. The gamma severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant that emerged by the end of 2020 in the Brazilian Amazon quickly spread throughout the country causing the harsh COVID-19 second wave. This variant displayed high viral loads, high transmissibility, and increased virulence as compared to previous variants.

Aims

The aim of this retrospective study is to revisit and analyse the epidemiology of the COVID-19 second wave in the state of São Paulo, the most populous Brazilian state. In addition to examining the possible factors that led to the emergence and propagation of the gamma variant, measures that could have prevented its spread and that of other highly virulent variants were also investigated.

Materials and methods

Data from São Paulo's official sources on morbidity, mortality, age distribution, and testing prior to and during the COVID-19 second wave (February - June 2021) and data regarding the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 variants in the country were parsed, analyzed, and compared to the period that anteceded the eruption of the second COVID-19 wave.

Results

In the state of São Paulo, the toll of the COVID-19 second wave surpassed that of the first 11 months of the pandemic (from March 2020 to January 2021), as 56% of the deaths occurred in the five months of the second wave between February and June 2021. The mean age of COVID-19 victims, which was already below life expectancy in the state dropped even further in the pandemic's second wave, reaching an average of 60 years of age. The years of life lost per death per month doubled and the case-fatality rate (CFR) of young adults (20-39 years old) more than trebled during this period. A number of hypotheses have been raised that might explain the emergence and spread of the gamma variant and the measures that could have been taken to prevent it and minimise its impact on the population.

Conclusions

Over 142,000 people died as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 gamma variant sweep in São Paulo in the first semester of 2021. Due to its high viral load, the gamma variant displayed high transmissibility and a high degree of virulence resulting in increased case fatality rates across most age tiers. Notably, this second wave was marked by a very significant increase in deaths among young adults. This increase was at least partially due to a deterioration in general health provoked by non-pharmaceutical interventions. In hindsight, a safer and more effective measure might have been to allow the free spread of the virus among the young and healthy in the first wave, thus conferring immunity against more virulent variants that emerged later on.

Mutability Patterns Across the Spike Glycoprotein Reveal the Diverging and Lineage-specific Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2

Mutations in the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 allow the virus to probe the sequence space in search of higher-fitness states. New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with such mutations. Interestingly, the sites of mutation in these sublineages vary between the VOCs. Whether such differences reflect the random nature of mutation appearance or distinct evolutionary spaces of spike in the VOCs is unclear. Here we show that each position of spike has a lineage-specific likelihood for mutations to appear and dominate descendent sublineages. This likelihood can be accurately estimated from the lineage-specific mutational profile of spike at a protein-wide level. The mutability environment of each position, including adjacent sites on the protein structure and neighboring sites on the network of comutability, accurately forecast changes in descendent sublineages. Mapping of imminent changes within the VOCs can contribute to the design of immunogens and therapeutics that address future forms of SARS-CoV-2.

Drivers of adaptive evolution during chronic SARS-CoV-2 infections

In some immunocompromised patients with chronic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, considerable adaptive evolution occurs. Some substitutions found in chronic infections are lineage-defining mutations in variants of concern (VOCs), which has led to the hypothesis that VOCs emerged from chronic infections. In this study, we searched for drivers of VOC-like emergence by consolidating sequencing results from a set of 27 chronic infections. Most substitutions in this set reflected lineage-defining VOC mutations; however, a subset of mutations associated with successful global transmission was absent from chronic infections. We further tested the ability to associate antibody evasion mutations with patient-specific and virus-specific features and found that viral rebound is strongly correlated with the emergence of antibody evasion. We found evidence for dynamic polymorphic viral populations in most patients, suggesting that a compromised immune system selects for antibody evasion in particular niches in a patient’s body. We suggest that a tradeoff exists between antibody evasion and transmissibility and that extensive monitoring of chronic infections is necessary to further understanding of VOC emergence.

Analysis of mutations that arise in chronic SARS-CoV-2 infections shows both overlap and differences with mutations present in pandemic viral variants of concern, highlighting their distinct drivers of evolution.

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.

Le virus SARS-CoV-2 n’a pas « d’origine »

Depuis le début de la pandémie de COVID-19, la question de l’origine de ce virus fait l’objet d’une vive polémique. C’est la question de « l’origine » qui est biaisée. Darwin a montré qu’il n’y a pas d’origine déterminée à aucune espèce animale ou végétale, simplement un processus évolutif et sélectif. Il en est de même pour les virus, il n’y a pas d’origine, mais un processus évolutif. Les virus circulent d’hôte à hôte, animaux ou humains. Les virus pandémiques circulent déjà chez l’homme et évoluent avant l’apparition d’une maladie. Ce processus évolutif se poursuit et donne naissance à des variants successifs. La solution n’est pas de cibler la maladie ou le possible agent causal, mais plutôt de cibler le processus d’émergence de la maladie lui-même.