The evolutionary drivers and correlates of viral host jumps

Most emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases stem from viruses that naturally circulate in non-human vertebrates. When these viruses cross over into humans, they can cause disease outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics. While zoonotic host jumps have been extensively studied from an ecological perspective, little attention has gone into characterizing the evolutionary drivers and correlates underlying these events. To address this gap, we harnessed the entirety of publicly available viral genomic data, employing a comprehensive suite of network and phylogenetic analyses to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning recent viral host jumps. Surprisingly, we find that humans are as much a source as a sink for viral spillover events, insofar as we infer more viral host jumps from humans to other animals than from animals to humans. Moreover, we demonstrate heightened evolution in viral lineages that involve putative host jumps. We further observe that the extent of adaptation associated with a host jump is lower for viruses with broader host ranges. Finally, we show that the genomic targets of natural selection associated with host jumps vary across different viral families, with either structural or auxiliary genes being the prime targets of selection. Collectively, our results illuminate some of the evolutionary drivers underlying viral host jumps that may contribute to mitigating viral threats across species boundaries.

Detection of a historic reservoir of bedaquiline/clofazimine resistance-associated variants in Mycobacterium tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Drug resistance in tuberculosis (TB) poses a major ongoing challenge to public health. The recent inclusion of bedaquiline into TB drug regimens has improved treatment outcomes, but this advance is threatened by the emergence of strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) resistant to bedaquiline. Clinical bedaquiline resistance is most frequently conferred by off-target resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in the mmpR5 gene (Rv0678), the regulator of an efflux pump, which can also confer cross-resistance to clofazimine, another TB drug.

METHODS

We compiled a dataset of 3682 Mtb genomes, including 180 carrying variants in mmpR5, and its immediate background (i.e. mmpR5 promoter and adjacent mmpL5 gene), that have been associated to borderline (henceforth intermediate) or confirmed resistance to bedaquiline. We characterised the occurrence of all nonsynonymous mutations in mmpR5 in this dataset and estimated, using time-resolved phylogenetic methods, the age of their emergence.

RESULTS

We identified eight cases where RAVs were present in the genomes of strains collected prior to the use of bedaquiline in TB treatment regimes. Phylogenetic reconstruction points to multiple emergence events and circulation of RAVs in mmpR5, some estimated to predate the introduction of bedaquiline. However, epistatic interactions can complicate bedaquiline drug-susceptibility prediction from genetic sequence data. Indeed, in one clade, Ile67fs (a RAV when considered in isolation) was estimated to have emerged prior to the antibiotic era, together with a resistance reverting mmpL5 mutation.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of a pre-existing reservoir of Mtb strains carrying bedaquiline RAVs prior to its clinical use augments the need for rapid drug susceptibility testing and individualised regimen selection to safeguard the use of bedaquiline in TB care and control.

Increase in antioxidant capacity associated with the successful subclone of hypervirulent carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae ST11-KL64

The acquisition of exogenous mobile genetic material imposes an adaptive burden on bacteria, whereas the adaptational evolution of virulence plasmids upon entry into carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) and its impact remains unclear. To better understand the virulence in CRKP, we characterize virulence plasmids utilizing a large genomic data containing 1219 K. pneumoniae from our long-term surveillance and publicly accessible databases. Phylogenetic evaluation unveils associations between distinct virulence plasmids and serotypes. The sub-lineage ST11-KL64 CRKP acquires a pK2044-like virulence plasmid from ST23-KL1 hypervirulent K. pneumoniae, with a 2698 bp region deletion in all ST11-KL64. The deletion is observed to regulate methionine metabolism, enhance antioxidant capacity, and further improve survival of hypervirulent CRKP in macrophages. The pK2044-like virulence plasmid discards certain sequences to enhance survival of ST11-KL64, thereby conferring an evolutionary advantage. This work contributes to multifaceted understanding of virulence and provides insight into potential causes behind low fitness costs observed in bacteria.

Genomic screening of 16 UK native bat species through conservationist networks uncovers coronaviruses with zoonotic potential

There has been limited characterisation of bat-borne coronaviruses in Europe. Here, we screened for coronaviruses in 48 faecal samples from 16 of the 17 bat species breeding in the UK, collected through a bat rehabilitation and conservationist network. We recovered nine complete genomes, including two novel coronavirus species, across six bat species: four alphacoronaviruses, a MERS-related betacoronavirus, and four closely related sarbecoviruses. We demonstrate that at least one of these sarbecoviruses can bind and use the human ACE2 receptor for infecting human cells, albeit suboptimally. Additionally, the spike proteins of these sarbecoviruses possess an R-A-K-Q motif, which lies only one nucleotide mutation away from a furin cleavage site (FCS) that enhances infectivity in other coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2. However, mutating this motif to an FCS does not enable spike cleavage. Overall, while UK sarbecoviruses would require further molecular adaptations to infect humans, their zoonotic risk warrants closer surveillance.

Identification of evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 candidate mutations, from which four [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] further display evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

Identification of evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

The population genomic legacy of the second plague pandemic

Human populations have been shaped by catastrophes that may have left long-lasting signatures in their genomes. One notable example is the second plague pandemic that entered Europe in ca. 1,347 CE and repeatedly returned for over 300 years, with typical village and town mortality estimated at 10%-40%.¹ It is assumed that this high mortality affected the gene pools of these populations. First, local population crashes reduced genetic diversity. Second, a change in frequency is expected for sequence variants that may have affected survival or susceptibility to the etiologic agent (Yersinia pestis).² Third, mass mortality might alter the local gene pools through its impact on subsequent migration patterns. We explored these factors using the Norwegian city of Trondheim as a model, by sequencing 54 genomes spanning three time periods: (1) prior to the plague striking Trondheim in 1,349 CE, (2) the 17^th-19^th century, and (3) the present. We find that the pandemic period shaped the gene pool by reducing long distance immigration, in particular from the British Isles, and inducing a bottleneck that reduced genetic diversity. Although we also observe an excess of large F_ST values at multiple loci in the genome, these are shaped by reference biases introduced by mapping our relatively low genome coverage degraded DNA to the reference genome. This implies that attempts to detect selection using ancient DNA (aDNA) datasets that vary by read length and depth of sequencing coverage may be particularly challenging until methods have been developed to account for the impact of differential reference bias on test statistics.

Ancient herpes simplex 1 genomes reveal recent viral structure in Eurasia

Human herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1), a life-long infection spread by oral contact, infects a majority of adults globally. Phylogeographic clustering of sampled diversity into European, pan-Eurasian, and African groups has suggested the virus codiverged with human migrations out of Africa, although a much younger origin has also been proposed. We present three full ancient European HSV-1 genomes and one partial genome, dating from the 3rd to 17th century CE, sequenced to up to 9.5× with paired human genomes up to 10.16×. Considering a dataset of modern and ancient genomes, we apply phylogenetic methods to estimate the age of sampled modern Eurasian HSV-1 diversity to 4.68 (3.87 to 5.65) ka. Extrapolation of estimated rates to a global dataset points to the age of extant sampled HSV-1 as 5.29 (4.60 to 6.12) ka, suggesting HSV-1 lineage replacement coinciding with the late Neolithic period and following Bronze Age migrations.

The past, current and future epidemiological dynamic of SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2, the agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, emerged in late 2019 in China, and rapidly spread throughout the world to reach all continents. As the virus expanded in its novel human host, viral lineages diversified through the accumulation of around two mutations a month on average. Different viral lineages have replaced each other since the start of the pandemic, with the most successful Alpha, Delta and Omicron variants of concern (VoCs) sequentially sweeping through the world to reach high global prevalence. Neither Alpha nor Delta was characterized by strong immune escape, with their success coming mainly from their higher transmissibility. Omicron is far more prone to immune evasion and spread primarily due to its increased ability to (re-)infect hosts with prior immunity. As host immunity reaches high levels globally through vaccination and prior infection, the epidemic is expected to transition from a pandemic regime to an endemic one where seasonality and waning host immunization are anticipated to become the primary forces shaping future SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics. In this review, we consider a body of evidence on the origins, host tropism, epidemiology, genomic and immunogenetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 including an assessment of other coronaviruses infecting humans. Considering what is known so far, we conclude by delineating scenarios for the future dynamic of SARS-CoV-2, ranging from the good-circulation of a fifth endemic 'common cold' coronavirus of potentially low virulence, the bad-a situation roughly comparable with seasonal flu, and the ugly-extensive diversification into serotypes with long-term high-level endemicity.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to animals and potential host adaptation

SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent of the COVID-19 pandemic, can infect a wide range of mammals. Since its spread in humans, secondary host jumps of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to multiple domestic and wild populations of mammals have been documented. Understanding the extent of adaptation to these animal hosts is critical for assessing the threat that the spillback of animal-adapted SARS-CoV-2 into humans poses. We compare the genomic landscapes of SARS-CoV-2 isolated from animal species to that in humans, profiling the mutational biases indicative of potentially different selective pressures in animals. We focus on viral genomes isolated from mink (Neovison vison) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for which multiple independent outbreaks driven by onward animal-to-animal transmission have been reported. We identify five candidate mutations for animal-specific adaptation in mink (NSP9_G37E, Spike_F486L, Spike_N501T, Spike_Y453F, ORF3a_L219V), and one in deer (NSP3a_L1035F), though they appear to confer a minimal advantage for human-to-human transmission. No considerable changes to the mutation rate or evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 has resulted from circulation in mink and deer thus far. Our findings suggest that minimal adaptation was required for onward transmission in mink and deer following human-to-animal spillover, highlighting the ‘generalist’ nature of SARS-CoV-2 as a mammalian pathogen.

Here, Tan et al. find that the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 in mink and deer required minimal adaptation, has only caused moderate changes to the evolutionary trajectory of the virus, and has not led to viral mutations that greatly improve human transmission thus far.

Role of mobile genetic elements in the global dissemination of the carbapenem resistance gene blaNDM

The mobile resistance gene blaNDM encodes the NDM enzyme which hydrolyses carbapenems, a class of antibiotics used to treat some of the most severe bacterial infections. The blaNDM gene is globally distributed across a variety of Gram-negative bacteria on multiple plasmids, typically located within highly recombining and transposon-rich genomic regions, which leads to the dynamics underlying the global dissemination of blaNDM to remain poorly resolved. Here, we compile a dataset of over 6000 bacterial genomes harbouring the blaNDM gene, including 104 newly generated PacBio hybrid assemblies from clinical and livestock-associated isolates across China. We develop a computational approach to track structural variants surrounding blaNDM, which allows us to identify prevalent genomic contexts, mobile genetic elements, and likely events in the gene's global spread. We estimate that blaNDM emerged on a Tn125 transposon before 1985, but only reached global prevalence around a decade after its first recorded observation in 2005. The Tn125 transposon seems to have played an important role in early plasmid-mediated jumps of blaNDM, but was overtaken in recent years by other elements including IS26-flanked pseudo-composite transposons and Tn3000. We found a strong association between blaNDM-carrying plasmid backbones and the sampling location of isolates. This observation suggests that the global dissemination of the blaNDM gene was primarily driven by successive between-plasmid transposon jumps, with far more restricted subsequent plasmid exchange, possibly due to adaptation of plasmids to their specific bacterial hosts.

Pre-existing polymerase-specific T cells expand in abortive seronegative SARS-CoV-2

Individuals with potential exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) do not necessarily develop PCR or antibody positivity, suggesting that some individuals may clear subclinical infection before seroconversion. T cells can contribute to the rapid clearance of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronavirus infections1-3. Here we hypothesize that pre-existing memory T cell responses, with cross-protective potential against SARS-CoV-2 (refs. 4-11), would expand in vivo to support rapid viral control, aborting infection. We measured SARS-CoV-2-reactive T cells, including those against the early transcribed replication-transcription complex (RTC)12,13, in intensively monitored healthcare workers (HCWs) who tested repeatedly negative according to PCR, antibody binding and neutralization assays (seronegative HCWs (SN-HCWs)). SN-HCWs had stronger, more multispecific memory T cells compared with a cohort of unexposed individuals from before the pandemic (prepandemic cohort), and these cells were more frequently directed against the RTC than the structural-protein-dominated responses observed after detectable infection (matched concurrent cohort). SN-HCWs with the strongest RTC-specific T cells had an increase in IFI27, a robust early innate signature of SARS-CoV-2 (ref. 14), suggesting abortive infection. RNA polymerase within RTC was the largest region of high sequence conservation across human seasonal coronaviruses (HCoV) and SARS-CoV-2 clades. RNA polymerase was preferentially targeted (among the regions tested) by T cells from prepandemic cohorts and SN-HCWs. RTC-epitope-specific T cells that cross-recognized HCoV variants were identified in SN-HCWs. Enriched pre-existing RNA-polymerase-specific T cells expanded in vivo to preferentially accumulate in the memory response after putative abortive compared to overt SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our data highlight RTC-specific T cells as targets for vaccines against endemic and emerging Coronaviridae.

Genomic Analysis of 18th-Century Kazakh Individuals and Their Oral Microbiome

The Asian Central Steppe, consisting of current-day Kazakhstan and Russia, has acted as a highway for major migrations throughout history. Therefore, describing the genetic composition of past populations in Central Asia holds value to understanding human mobility in this pivotal region. In this study, we analyse paleogenomic data generated from five humans from Kuygenzhar, Kazakhstan. These individuals date to the early to mid-18th century, shortly after the Kazakh Khanate was founded, a union of nomadic tribes of Mongol Golden Horde and Turkic origins. Genomic analysis identifies that these individuals are admixed with varying proportions of East Asian ancestry, indicating a recent admixture event from East Asia. The high amounts of DNA from the anaerobic Gram-negative bacteria Tannerella forsythia, a periodontal pathogen, recovered from their teeth suggest they may have suffered from periodontitis disease. Genomic analysis of this bacterium identified recently evolved virulence and glycosylation genes including the presence of antibiotic resistance genes predating the antibiotic era. This study provides an integrated analysis of individuals with a diet mostly based on meat (mainly horse and lamb), milk, and dairy products and their oral microbiome.

Pre-existing T cell-mediated cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 cannot solely be explained by prior exposure to endemic human coronaviruses

T-cell-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2-derived peptides in individuals unexposed to SARS-CoV-2 has been previously reported. This pre-existing immunity was suggested to largely derive from prior exposure to 'common cold' endemic human coronaviruses (HCoVs). To test this, we characterised the sequence homology of SARS-CoV-2-derived T-cell epitopes reported in the literature across the full proteome of the Coronaviridae family. 54.8% of these epitopes had no homology to any of the HCoVs. Further, the proportion of SARS-CoV-2-derived epitopes with any level of sequence homology to the proteins encoded by any of the coronaviruses tested is well-predicted by their alignment-free phylogenetic distance to SARS-CoV-2 (Pearson's r = -0.958). No coronavirus in our dataset showed a significant excess of T-cell epitope homology relative to the proportion of expected random matches, given their genetic similarity to SARS-CoV-2. Our findings suggest that prior exposure to human or animal-associated coronaviruses cannot completely explain the T-cell repertoire in unexposed individuals that recognise SARS-CoV-2 cross-reactive epitopes.

Drivers of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) lineage replacement in China

BACKGROUND

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a major nosocomial pathogen subdivided into lineages termed sequence types (STs). Since the 1950s, successive waves of STs have appeared and replaced previously dominant lineages. One such event has been occurring in China since 2013, with community-associated (CA-MRSA) strains including ST59 largely replacing the previously dominant healthcare-associated (HA-MRSA) ST239. We previously showed that ST59 isolates tend to have a competitive advantage in growth experiments against ST239. However, the underlying genomic and phenotypic drivers of this replacement event are unclear.

METHODS

Here, we investigated the replacement of ST239 using whole-genome sequencing data from 204 ST239 and ST59 isolates collected in Chinese hospitals between 1994 and 2016. We reconstructed the evolutionary history of each ST and considered two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses for ST59 replacing ST239: antimicrobial resistance (AMR) profile and/or ability to colonise and persist in the environment through biofilm formation. We also investigated the differences in cytolytic activity, linked to higher virulence, between STs. We performed an association study using the presence and absence of accessory virulence genes.

RESULTS

ST59 isolates carried fewer AMR genes than ST239 and showed no evidence of evolving towards higher AMR. Biofilm production was marginally higher in ST59 overall, though this effect was not consistent across sub-lineages so is unlikely to be a sole driver of replacement. Consistent with previous observations of higher virulence in CA-MRSA STs, we observed that ST59 isolates exhibit significantly higher cytolytic activity than ST239 isolates, despite carrying on average fewer putative virulence genes. Our association study identified the chemotaxis inhibitory protein (chp) as a strong candidate for involvement in the increased virulence potential of ST59. We experimentally validated the role of chp in increasing the virulence potential of ST59 by creating Δchp knockout mutants, confirming that ST59 can carry chp without a measurable impact on fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that the ongoing replacement of ST239 by ST59 in China is not associated to higher AMR carriage or biofilm production. However, the increase in ST59 prevalence is concerning since it is linked to a higher potential for virulence, aided by the carriage of the chp gene.

COVID-19, the first pandemic in the post-genomic era

The scale of the international efforts to sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes is unprecedented. Early availability of genomes allowed rapid characterisation of the virus, thus kickstarting many highly successful vaccine development programmes. Worldwide genomic resources have provided a good understanding of the pandemic, supported close monitoring of the emergence of viral genomic diversity and pinpointed those sites to prioritise for functional characterisation. Continued genomic surveillance of global viral populations will be crucial to inform the timing of vaccine updates so as to pre-empt the spread of immune escape lineages. While genome sequencing has provided us with an exceptionally powerful tool to monitor the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, there is room for further improvements in particular in the form of less heterogeneous global surveillance and tools to rapidly identify concerning viral lineages.

Salmonella enterica from a soldier from the 1652 siege of Barcelona (Spain) supports historical transatlantic epidemic contacts

Ancient pathogen genomics is an emerging field allowing reconstruction of past epidemics. The demise of post-contact American populations may, at least in part, have been caused by paratyphoid fever brought by Europeans. We retrieved genome-wide data from two Spanish soldiers who were besieging the city of Barcelona in 1652, during the Reapers' War. Their ancestry derived from the Basque region and Sardinia, respectively, (at that time, this island belonged to the Spanish kingdom). Despite the proposed plague epidemic, we could not find solid evidence for the presence of the causative plague agent in these individuals. However, we retrieved from one individual a substantial fraction of the Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi C lineage linked to paratyphoid fever in colonial period Mexico. Our results support a growing body of evidence that Paratyphi C enteric fever was more prevalent in Europe and the Americas in the past than it is today.

Metagenomic evidence for a polymicrobial signature of sepsis

Our understanding of the host component of sepsis has made significant progress. However, detailed study of the microorganisms causing sepsis, either as single pathogens or microbial assemblages, has received far less attention. Metagenomic data offer opportunities to characterize the microbial communities found in septic and healthy individuals. In this study we apply gradient-boosted tree classifiers and a novel computational decontamination technique built upon SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to identify microbial hallmarks which discriminate blood metagenomic samples of septic patients from that of healthy individuals. Classifiers had high performance when using the read assignments to microbial genera [area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC=0.995)], including after removal of species ‘culture-confirmed’ as the cause of sepsis through clinical testing (AUROC=0.915). Models trained on single genera were inferior to those employing a polymicrobial model and we identified multiple co-occurring bacterial genera absent from healthy controls. While prevailing diagnostic paradigms seek to identify single pathogens, our results point to the involvement of a polymicrobial community in sepsis. We demonstrate the importance of the microbial component in characterising sepsis, which may offer new biological insights into the aetiology of sepsis, and ultimately support the development of clinical diagnostic or even prognostic tools.

Evidence of the interplay of genetics and culture in Ethiopia

The rich linguistic, ethnic and cultural diversity of Ethiopia provides an unprecedented opportunity to understand the level to which cultural factors correlate with-and shape-genetic structure in human populations. Using primarily new genetic variation data covering 1,214 Ethiopians representing 68 different ethnic groups, together with information on individuals' birthplaces, linguistic/religious practices and 31 cultural practices, we disentangle the effects of geographic distance, elevation, and social factors on the genetic structure of Ethiopians today. We provide evidence of associations between social behaviours and genetic differences among present-day peoples. We show that genetic similarity is broadly associated with linguistic affiliation, but also identify pronounced genetic similarity among groups from disparate language classifications that may in part be attributable to recent intermixing. We also illustrate how groups reporting the same culture traits are more genetically similar on average and show evidence of recent intermixing, suggesting that shared cultural traits may promote admixture. In addition to providing insights into the genetic structure and history of Ethiopia, we identify the most important cultural and geographic predictors of genetic differentiation and provide a resource for designing sampling protocols for future genetic studies involving Ethiopians.

Genomic epidemiology of the first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Palestine

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the novel coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, continues to cause a significant public-health burden and disruption globally. Genomic epidemiology approaches point to most countries in the world having experienced many independent introductions of SARS-CoV-2 during the early stages of the pandemic. However, this situation may change with local lockdown policies and restrictions on travel, leading to the emergence of more geographically structured viral populations and lineages transmitting locally. Here, we report the first SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine sampled from early March 2020, when the first cases were observed, through to August of 2020. SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Palestine fall across the diversity of the global phylogeny, consistent with at least nine independent introductions into the region. We identify one locally predominant lineage in circulation represented by 50 Palestinian SARS-CoV-2, grouping with genomes generated from Israel and the UK. We estimate the age of introduction of this lineage to 05/02/2020 (16/01/2020-19/02/2020), suggesting SARS-CoV-2 was already in circulation in Palestine predating its first detection in Bethlehem in early March. Our work highlights the value of ongoing genomic surveillance and monitoring to reconstruct the epidemiology of COVID-19 at both local and global scales.

Antibiotic Treatment Regimes as a Driver of the Global Population Dynamics of a Major Gonorrhea Lineage

The Neisseria gonorrhoeae multilocus sequence type (ST) 1901 is among the lineages most commonly associated with treatment failure. Here, we analyze a global collection of ST-1901 genomes to shed light on the emergence and spread of alleles associated with reduced susceptibility to extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). The genetic diversity of ST-1901 falls into a minor and a major clade, both of which were inferred to have originated in East Asia. The dispersal of the major clade from Asia happened in two separate waves expanding from ∼1987 and 1996, respectively. Both waves first reached North America, and from there spread to Europe and Oceania, with multiple secondary reintroductions to Asia. The ancestor of the second wave acquired the penA 34.001 allele, which significantly reduces susceptibility to ESCs. Our results suggest that the acquisition of this allele granted the second wave a fitness advantage at a time when ESCs became the key drug class used to treat gonorrhea. Following its establishment globally, the lineage has served as a reservoir for the repeated emergence of clones fully resistant to the ESC ceftriaxone, an essential drug for effective treatment of gonorrhea. We infer that the effective population sizes of both clades went into decline as treatment schemes shifted from fluoroquinolones via ESC monotherapy to dual therapy with ceftriaxone and azithromycin in Europe and the United States. Despite the inferred recent population size decline, the short evolutionary path from the penA 34.001 allele to alleles providing full ceftriaxone resistance is a cause of concern.

No evidence for increased transmissibility from recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2

COVID-19 is caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which jumped into the human population in late 2019 from a currently uncharacterised animal reservoir. Due to this recent association with humans, SARS-CoV-2 may not yet be fully adapted to its human host. This has led to speculations that SARS-CoV-2 may be evolving towards higher transmissibility. The most plausible mutations under putative natural selection are those which have emerged repeatedly and independently (homoplasies). Here, we formally test whether any homoplasies observed in SARS-CoV-2 to date are significantly associated with increased viral transmission. To do so, we develop a phylogenetic index to quantify the relative number of descendants in sister clades with and without a specific allele. We apply this index to a curated set of recurrent mutations identified within a dataset of 46,723 SARS-CoV-2 genomes isolated from patients worldwide. We do not identify a single recurrent mutation in this set convincingly associated with increased viral transmission. Instead, recurrent mutations currently in circulation appear to be evolutionary neutral and primarily induced by the human immune system via RNA editing, rather than being signatures of adaptation. At this stage we find no evidence for significantly more transmissible lineages of SARS-CoV-2 due to recurrent mutations.

STROBE-metagenomics: a STROBE extension statement to guide the reporting of metagenomics studies

The term metagenomics refers to the use of sequencing methods to simultaneously identify genomic material from all organisms present in a sample, with the advantage of greater taxonomic resolution than culture or other methods. Applications include pathogen detection and discovery, species characterisation, antimicrobial resistance detection, virulence profiling, and study of the microbiome and microecological factors affecting health. However, metagenomics involves complex and multistep processes and there are important technical and methodological challenges that require careful consideration to support valid inference. We co-ordinated a multidisciplinary, international expert group to establish reporting guidelines that address specimen processing, nucleic acid extraction, sequencing platforms, bioinformatics considerations, quality assurance, limits of detection, power and sample size, confirmatory testing, causality criteria, cost, and ethical issues. The guidance recognises that metagenomics research requires pragmatism and caution in interpretation, and that this field is rapidly evolving.

Emergence of genomic diversity and recurrent mutations in SARS-CoV-2

SARS-CoV-2 is a SARS-like coronavirus of likely zoonotic origin first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, the capital of China's Hubei province. The virus has since spread globally, resulting in the currently ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The first whole genome sequence was published on January 5 2020, and thousands of genomes have been sequenced since this date. This resource allows unprecedented insights into the past demography of SARS-CoV-2 but also monitoring of how the virus is adapting to its novel human host, providing information to direct drug and vaccine design. We curated a dataset of 7666 public genome assemblies and analysed the emergence of genomic diversity over time. Our results are in line with previous estimates and point to all sequences sharing a common ancestor towards the end of 2019, supporting this as the period when SARS-CoV-2 jumped into its human host. Due to extensive transmission, the genetic diversity of the virus in several countries recapitulates a large fraction of its worldwide genetic diversity. We identify regions of the SARS-CoV-2 genome that have remained largely invariant to date, and others that have already accumulated diversity. By focusing on mutations which have emerged independently multiple times (homoplasies), we identify 198 filtered recurrent mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 genome. Nearly 80% of the recurrent mutations produced non-synonymous changes at the protein level, suggesting possible ongoing adaptation of SARS-CoV-2. Three sites in Orf1ab in the regions encoding Nsp6, Nsp11, Nsp13, and one in the Spike protein are characterised by a particularly large number of recurrent mutations (>15 events) which may signpost convergent evolution and are of particular interest in the context of adaptation of SARS-CoV-2 to the human host. We additionally provide an interactive user-friendly web-application to query the alignment of the 7666 SARS-CoV-2 genomes.

Population-level emergence of bedaquiline and clofazimine resistance-associated variants among patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis in southern Africa: a phenotypic and phylogenetic analysis

BACKGROUND

Bedaquiline and clofazimine are important drugs in the treatment of drug-resistant tuberculosis and are commonly used across southern Africa, although drug susceptibility testing is not routinely performed. In this study, we did a genotypic and phenotypic analysis of drug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from cohort studies in hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, to identify resistance-associated variants (RAVs) and assess the extent of clofazimine and bedaquiline cross-resistance. We also used a comprehensive dataset of whole-genome sequences to investigate the phylogenetic and geographical distribution of bedaquiline and clofazimine RAVs in southern Africa.

METHODS

In this study, we included M tuberculosis isolates reported from the PRAXIS study of patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis treated with bedaquiline (King Dinuzulu Hospital, Durban) and three other cohort studies of drug-resistant tuberculosis in other KwaZulu-Natal hospitals, and sequential isolates from six persistently culture-positive patients with extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis at the KwaZulu-Natal provincial referral laboratory. Samples were collected between 2013 and 2019. Microbiological cultures were done as part of all parent studies. We sequenced whole genomes of included isolates and measured bedaquiline and clofazimine minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for isolates identified as carrying any Rv0678 variant or previously published atpE, pepQ, and Rv1979c RAVs, which were the subject of the phenotypic study. We combined all whole-genome sequences of M tuberculosis obtained in this study with publicly available sequence data from other tuberculosis studies in southern Africa (defined as the countries of the Southern African Development Community), including isolates with Rv0678 variants identified by screening public genomic databases. We used this extended dataset to reconstruct phylogenetic relationships across lineage 2 and 4 M tuberculosis isolates.

FINDINGS

We sequenced the whole genome of 648 isolates from 385 patients with drug-resistant tuberculosis recruited into cohort studies in KwaZulu-Natal, and 28 isolates from six patients from the KwaZulu-Natal referral laboratory. We identified 30 isolates with Rv0678 RAVs from 16 (4%) of 391 patients. We did not identify any atpE, pepQ, or Rv1979c RAVs. MICs were measured for 21 isolates with Rv0678 RAVs. MICs were above the critical concentration for bedaquiline resistance in nine (43%) of 21 isolates, in the intermediate category in nine (43%) isolates, and within the wild-type range in three (14%) isolates. Clofazimine MICs in genetically wild-type isolates ranged from 0·12-0·5 μg/mL, and in isolates with RAVs from 0·25-4·0 μg/mL. Phylogenetic analysis of the extended dataset including M tuberculosis isolates from southern Africa resolved multiple emergences of Rv0678 variants in lineages 2 and 4, documented two likely nosocomial transmission events, and identified the spread of a possibly bedaquiline and clofazimine cross-resistant clone in eSwatini. We also identified four patients with pepQ frameshift mutations that may confer resistance.

INTERPRETATION

Bedaquiline and clofazimine cross-resistance in southern Africa is emerging repeatedly, with evidence of onward transmission largely due to Rv0678 mutations in M tuberculosis. Roll-out of bedaquiline and clofazimine treatment in the setting of limited drug susceptibility testing could allow further spread of resistance. Designing strong regimens would help reduce the emergence of resistance. Drug susceptibility testing is required to identify where resistance does emerge.

FUNDING

Wellcome Trust, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences of the National Institutes of Health.

Bedaquiline resistance in drug-resistant tuberculosis HIV co-infected patients

Global tuberculosis (TB) control is threatened by drug resistance, with over 500 000 cases resistant to first-line drugs in 2018 [1]. Bedaquiline is a highly effective TB drug and has improved drug-resistant TB (DR-TB) outcomes in trial and programmatic settings [2, 3]. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends its inclusion in most DR-TB regimens [4] and it is under further evaluation in clinical trials. There have been several reports of clinical bedaquiline resistance [5–8]. Resistance-associated variants (RAVs) in clinical isolates identified to date are almost exclusively caused by Rv0678 mutations which can raise Mycobacterium tuberculosis minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for bedaquiline and clofazimine [9].

Genetic mutations linked to bedaquiline resistance were found before starting treatment and acquired during treatment in patients with drug-resistant TB and HIV in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Routine bedaquiline resistance testing needs to be accelerated. http://bit.ly/2vnL4VY

Metagenomic analysis of a blood stain from the French revolutionary Jean-Paul Marat (1743-1793)

The French revolutionary Jean-Paul Marat (1743-1793) was assassinated in 1793 in his bathtub, where he was trying to find relief from the debilitating skin disease he was suffering from. At the time of his death, Marat was annotating newspapers, which got stained with his blood and were subsequently preserved by his sister. We extracted and sequenced DNA from the blood stain and also from another section of the newspaper, which we used for comparison. Results from the human DNA sequence analyses were compatible with a heterogeneous ancestry of Marat, with his mother being of French origin and his father born in Sardinia. Metagenomic analyses of the non-human reads uncovered the presence of fungal, bacterial and low levels of viral DNA. Relying on the presence/absence of microbial species in the samples, we could cast doubt on several putative infectious agents that have been previously hypothesised as the cause of his condition but for which we detect not a single sequencing read. Conversely, some of the species we detect are uncommon as environmental contaminants and may represent plausible infective agents. Based on all the available evidence, we hypothesize that Marat may have suffered from a fungal infection (seborrheic dermatitis), possibly superinfected with bacterial opportunistic pathogens.

Large-scale network analysis captures biological features of bacterial plasmids

Many bacteria can exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (HGT) mediated by plasmids and plasmid-borne transposable elements. Here, we study the population structure and dynamics of over 10,000 bacterial plasmids, by quantifying their genetic similarities and reconstructing a network based on their shared k-mer content. We use a community detection algorithm to assign plasmids into cliques, which correlate with plasmid gene content, bacterial host range, GC content, and existing classifications based on replicon and mobility (MOB) types. Further analysis of plasmid population structure allows us to uncover candidates for yet undescribed replicon genes, and to identify transposable elements as the main drivers of HGT at broad phylogenetic scales. Our work illustrates the potential of network-based analyses of the bacterial 'mobilome' and opens up the prospect of a natural, exhaustive classification framework for bacterial plasmids.

Plasmodium vivax Malaria Viewed through the Lens of an Eradicated European Strain

The protozoan Plasmodium vivax is responsible for 42% of all cases of malaria outside Africa. The parasite is currently largely restricted to tropical and subtropical latitudes in Asia, Oceania, and the Americas. Though, it was historically present in most of Europe before being finally eradicated during the second half of the 20th century. The lack of genomic information on the extinct European lineage has prevented a clear understanding of historical population structuring and past migrations of P. vivax. We used medical microscope slides prepared in 1944 from malaria-affected patients from the Ebro Delta in Spain, one of the last footholds of malaria in Europe, to generate a genome of a European P. vivax strain. Population genetics and phylogenetic analyses placed this strain basal to a cluster including samples from the Americas. This genome allowed us to calibrate a genomic mutation rate for P. vivax, and to estimate the mean age of the last common ancestor between European and American strains to the 15th century. This date points to an introduction of the parasite during the European colonization of the Americas. In addition, we found that some known variants for resistance to antimalarial drugs, including Chloroquine and Sulfadoxine, were already present in this European strain, predating their use. Our results shed light on the evolution of an important human pathogen and illustrate the value of antique medical collections as a resource for retrieving genomic information on pathogens from the past.

Discordant bioinformatic predictions of antimicrobial resistance from whole-genome sequencing data of bacterial isolates: an inter-laboratory study

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a threat to public health. Clinical microbiology laboratories typically rely on culturing bacteria for antimicrobial-susceptibility testing (AST). As the implementation costs and technical barriers fall, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) has emerged as a 'one-stop' test for epidemiological and predictive AST results. Few published comparisons exist for the myriad analytical pipelines used for predicting AMR. To address this, we performed an inter-laboratory study providing sets of participating researchers with identical short-read WGS data from clinical isolates, allowing us to assess the reproducibility of the bioinformatic prediction of AMR between participants, and identify problem cases and factors that lead to discordant results. We produced ten WGS datasets of varying quality from cultured carbapenem-resistant organisms obtained from clinical samples sequenced on either an Illumina NextSeq or HiSeq instrument. Nine participating teams ('participants') were provided these sequence data without any other contextual information. Each participant used their choice of pipeline to determine the species, the presence of resistance-associated genes, and to predict susceptibility or resistance to amikacin, gentamicin, ciprofloxacin and cefotaxime. We found participants predicted different numbers of AMR-associated genes and different gene variants from the same clinical samples. The quality of the sequence data, choice of bioinformatic pipeline and interpretation of the results all contributed to discordance between participants. Although much of the inaccurate gene variant annotation did not affect genotypic resistance predictions, we observed low specificity when compared to phenotypic AST results, but this improved in samples with higher read depths. Had the results been used to predict AST and guide treatment, a different antibiotic would have been recommended for each isolate by at least one participant. These challenges, at the final analytical stage of using WGS to predict AMR, suggest the need for refinements when using this technology in clinical settings. Comprehensive public resistance sequence databases, full recommendations on sequence data quality and standardization in the comparisons between genotype and resistance phenotypes will all play a fundamental role in the successful implementation of AST prediction using WGS in clinical microbiology laboratories.

Genetic affinities of an eradicated European Plasmodium falciparum strain

Malaria was present in most of Europe until the second half of the 20th century, when it was eradicated through a combination of increased surveillance and mosquito control strategies, together with cross-border and political collaboration. Despite the severe burden of malaria on human populations, it remains contentious how the disease arrived and spread in Europe. Here, we report a partial Plasmodium falciparum nuclear genome derived from a set of antique medical slides stained with the blood of malaria-infected patients from Spain’s Ebro Delta, dating to the 1940s. Our analyses of the genome of this now eradicated European P. falciparum strain confirms stronger phylogeographical affinity to present-day strains in circulation in central south Asia, rather than to those in Africa. This points to a longitudinal, rather than a latitudinal, spread of malaria into Europe. In addition, this genome displays two derived alleles in the pfmrp1 gene that have been associated with drug resistance. Whilst this could represent standing variation in the ancestral P. falciparum population, these mutations may also have arisen due to the selective pressure of quinine treatment, which was an anti-malarial drug already in use by the time the sample we sequenced was mounted on a slide.

Author Correction: Ancient genomes indicate population replacement in Early Neolithic Britain

In the version of this Article originally published, there were errors in the colour ordering of the legend in Fig. 5b, and in the positions of the target and surrogate populations in Fig. 5c. This has now been corrected. The conclusions of the study are in no way affected. The errors have been corrected in the HTML and PDF versions of the article.

Ancient genomes indicate population replacement in Early Neolithic Britain

The roles of migration, admixture and acculturation in the European transition to farming have been debated for over 100 years. Genome-wide ancient DNA studies indicate predominantly Aegean ancestry for continental Neolithic farmers, but also variable admixture with local Mesolithic hunter-gatherers. Neolithic cultures first appear in Britain circa 4000 BC, a millennium after they appeared in adjacent areas of continental Europe. The pattern and process of this delayed British Neolithic transition remain unclear. We assembled genome-wide data from 6 Mesolithic and 67 Neolithic individuals found in Britain, dating 8500-2500 BC. Our analyses reveal persistent genetic affinities between Mesolithic British and Western European hunter-gatherers. We find overwhelming support for agriculture being introduced to Britain by incoming continental farmers, with small, geographically structured levels of hunter-gatherer ancestry. Unlike other European Neolithic populations, we detect no resurgence of hunter-gatherer ancestry at any time during the Neolithic in Britain. Genetic affinities with Iberian Neolithic individuals indicate that British Neolithic people were mostly descended from Aegean farmers who followed the Mediterranean route of dispersal. We also infer considerable variation in pigmentation levels in Europe by circa 6000 BC.

Rapid phenotypic evolution in multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae hospital outbreak strains

Carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKP) increasingly cause high-mortality outbreaks in hospital settings globally. Following a patient fatality at a hospital in Beijing due to a blaKPC-2-positive CRKP infection, close monitoring was put in place over the course of 14 months to characterize all blaKPC-2-positive CRKP in circulation in the hospital. Whole genome sequences were generated for 100 isolates from blaKPC-2-positive isolates from infected patients, carriers and the hospital environment. Phylogenetic analyses identified a closely related cluster of 82 sequence type 11 (ST11) isolates circulating in the hospital for at least a year prior to admission of the index patient. The majority of inferred transmissions for these isolates involved patients in intensive care units. Whilst the 82 ST11 isolates collected during the surveillance effort all had closely related chromosomes, we observed extensive diversity in their antimicrobial resistance (AMR) phenotypes. We were able to reconstruct the major genomic changes underpinning this variation in AMR profiles, including multiple gains and losses of entire plasmids and recombination events between plasmids, including transposition of blaKPC-2. We also identified specific cases where variation in plasmid copy number correlated with the level of phenotypic resistance to drugs, suggesting that the number of resistance elements carried by a strain may play a role in determining the level of AMR. Our findings highlight the epidemiological value of whole genome sequencing for investigating multi-drug-resistant hospital infections and illustrate that standard typing schemes cannot capture the extraordinarily fast genome evolution of CRKP isolates.

From Theory to Practice: Translating Whole-Genome Sequencing (WGS) into the Clinic

Hospitals worldwide are facing an increasing incidence of hard-to-treat infections. Limiting infections and providing patients with optimal drug regimens require timely strain identification as well as virulence and drug-resistance profiling. Additionally, prophylactic interventions based on the identification of environmental sources of recurrent infections (e.g., contaminated sinks) and reconstruction of transmission chains (i.e., who infected whom) could help to reduce the incidence of nosocomial infections. WGS could hold the key to solving these issues. However, uptake in the clinic has been slow. Some major scientific and logistical challenges need to be solved before WGS fulfils its potential in clinical microbial diagnostics. In this review we identify major bottlenecks that need to be resolved for WGS to routinely inform clinical intervention and discuss possible solutions.

The global distribution and spread of the mobilized colistin resistance gene mcr-1

Colistin represents one of the few available drugs for treating infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. As such, the recent plasmid-mediated spread of the colistin resistance gene mcr-1 poses a significant public health threat, requiring global monitoring and surveillance. Here, we characterize the global distribution of mcr-1 using a data set of 457 mcr-1-positive sequenced isolates. We find mcr-1 in various plasmid types but identify an immediate background common to all mcr-1 sequences. Our analyses establish that all mcr-1 elements in circulation descend from the same initial mobilization of mcr-1 by an ISApl1 transposon in the mid 2000s (2002–2008; 95% highest posterior density), followed by a marked demographic expansion, which led to its current global distribution. Our results provide the first systematic phylogenetic analysis of the origin and spread of mcr-1, and emphasize the importance of understanding the movement of antibiotic resistance genes across multiple levels of genomic organization.

The recent plasmid-mediated spread of the mobilized colistin resistance gene mcr-1 poses a significant public health threat, requiring worldwide monitoring and surveillance. Here, Wang et al. compile and analyze a data set of 457 mcr-1-positive sequenced isolates to investigate the origin and global distribution of mcr-1.

Q&A: What are pathogens, and what have they done to and for us?

Microbes are found on us, within us and around us. They inhabit virtually every environment on the planet and the bacteria carried by an average human, mostly in their gut, outnumber human cells. The vast majority of microbes are harmless to us, and many play essential roles in plant, animal and human health. Others, however, are either obligate or facultative pathogens exerting a spectrum of deleterious effects on their hosts. Infectious diseases have historically represented the most common cause of death in humans until recently, exceeding by far the toll taken by wars or famines. From the dawn of humanity and throughout history, infectious diseases have shaped human evolution, demography, migrations and history.

The Genetic Legacy of Zoroastrianism in Iran and India: Insights into Population Structure, Gene Flow, and Selection

Zoroastrianism is one of the oldest extant religions in the world, originating in Persia (present-day Iran) during the second millennium BCE. Historical records indicate that migrants from Persia brought Zoroastrianism to India, but there is debate over the timing of these migrations. Here we present genome-wide autosomal, Y chromosome, and mitochondrial DNA data from Iranian and Indian Zoroastrians and neighboring modern-day Indian and Iranian populations and conduct a comprehensive genome-wide genetic analysis in these groups. Using powerful haplotype-based techniques, we find that Zoroastrians in Iran and India have increased genetic homogeneity relative to other sampled groups in their respective countries, consistent with their current practices of endogamy. Despite this, we infer that Indian Zoroastrians (Parsis) intermixed with local groups sometime after their arrival in India, dating this mixture to 690–1390 CE and providing strong evidence that Iranian Zoroastrian ancestry was maintained primarily through the male line. By making use of the rich information in DNA from ancient human remains, we also highlight admixture in the ancestors of Iranian Zoroastrians dated to 570 BCE–746 CE, older than admixture seen in any other sampled Iranian group, consistent with a long-standing isolation of Zoroastrians from outside groups. Finally, we report results, and challenges, from a genome-wide scan to identify genomic regions showing signatures of positive selection in present-day Zoroastrians that might correlate to the prevalence of particular diseases among these communities.

Early Neolithic genomes from the eastern Fertile Crescent

We sequenced Early Neolithic genomes from the Zagros region of Iran (eastern Fertile Crescent), where some of the earliest evidence for farming is found, and identify a previously uncharacterized population that is neither ancestral to the first European farmers nor has contributed substantially to the ancestry of modern Europeans. These people are estimated to have separated from Early Neolithic farmers in Anatolia some 46,000 to 77,000 years ago and show affinities to modern-day Pakistani and Afghan populations, but particularly to Iranian Zoroastrians. We conclude that multiple, genetically differentiated hunter-gatherer populations adopted farming in southwestern Asia, that components of pre-Neolithic population structure were preserved as farming spread into neighboring regions, and that the Zagros region was the cradle of eastward expansion.

Human Dispersal Out of Africa: A Lasting Debate

Unraveling the first migrations of anatomically modern humans out of Africa has invoked great interest among researchers from a wide range of disciplines. Available fossil, archeological, and climatic data offer many hypotheses, and as such genetics, with the advent of genome-wide genotyping and sequencing techniques and an increase in the availability of ancient samples, offers another important tool for testing theories relating to our own history. In this review, we report the ongoing debates regarding how and when our ancestors left Africa, how many waves of dispersal there were and what geographical routes were taken. We explore the validity of each, using current genetic literature coupled with some of the key archeological findings.

Evidence for a Common Origin of Blacksmiths and Cultivators in the Ethiopian Ari within the Last 4500 Years: Lessons for Clustering-Based Inference

The Ari peoples of Ethiopia are comprised of different occupational groups that can be distinguished genetically, with Ari Cultivators and the socially marginalised Ari Blacksmiths recently shown to have a similar level of genetic differentiation between them (F_ST ≈ 0.023 − 0.04) as that observed among multiple ethnic groups sampled throughout Ethiopia. Anthropologists have proposed two competing theories to explain the origins of the Ari Blacksmiths as (i) remnants of a population that inhabited Ethiopia prior to the arrival of agriculturists (e.g. Cultivators), or (ii) relatively recently related to the Cultivators but presently marginalized in the community due to their trade. Two recent studies by different groups analysed genome-wide DNA from samples of Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators and suggested that genetic patterns between the two groups were more consistent with model (i) and subsequent assimilation of the indigenous peoples into the expanding agriculturalist community. We analysed the same samples using approaches designed to attenuate signals of genetic differentiation that are attributable to allelic drift within a population. By doing so, we provide evidence that the genetic differences between Ari Blacksmiths and Cultivators can be entirely explained by bottleneck effects consistent with hypothesis (ii). This finding serves as both a cautionary tale about interpreting results from unsupervised clustering algorithms, and suggests that social constructions are contributing directly to genetic differentiation over a relatively short time period among previously genetically similar groups.

While it is widely recognized that DNA patterns vary across world-wide human populations, the primary features that drive these differences are less well understood. As an example, the Ari peoples of Ethiopia are presently socially divided according to occupation, with Ari Blacksmiths marginalised relative to Ari Cultivators. Two competing theories proposed by anthropologists to explain the existence of these occupational groupings suggest very different histories: (i) the Cultivators reflect migrants who moved into the region occupied by ancestors of the Blacksmiths perhaps many thousands of years ago, versus (ii) the Blacksmiths and Cultivators comprised the same ancestral group before the former was marginalised due solely to their trade. Recent genetic studies showed that Blacksmiths and Cultivators are distinguishable by their DNA, and suggested that overall DNA patterns among the two groups were consistent with (i). However, we demonstrate here that interpreting the results of currently popular algorithms that compare DNA is not always straight-forward. Instead we use a variety of analyses to show that (ii) seems a more likely explanation, perhaps illustrating how social marginalisation can lead to groups becoming genetically distinguishable over a relatively short time period.